北京市交通与区域经济现状的研究
摘要
本文较为深入的研究了北京市道路交通设施建设与北京市区域经济发展现状、相互关系以及与交通现状相关的若干问题。首先探讨了北京市的交通需求、道路运行状况以及北京市的经济特征和城市经济现状,并进一步分析了北京市的市域道路建设状况。基于此现状,本文选取了公路道路里程和北京市地区生产总值两个经济指标,利用分布滞后回归模型,研究了公路道路设施对经济发展的滞后拉动作用。研究中发现,公路道路的建设,不仅对当年的经济发展产生影响,更重要的是将会在以后相当长的一段时间内持续的发挥作用,也就是说公路等的交通基础设施对于区域的经济发展具有明显的滞后性,并进一步,科学推算出北京市公路道路的平均滞后年限为22年。在最后,本文主要对北京是的交通发展的战略问题进行了探讨,指出大城市的交通问题是具有全球性和普遍性的,当然北京也不例外。结合北京市交通问题的特点,文章对北京交通发展战略的五个方面进行了探讨,做出了相应的分析。本文主要致力于公路道路的经济特性和北京市经济交通现状的相关问题,企图从其如何对北京区域经济发展进行影响获得相关结论,并且进一步提出北京市交通相关的战略发展问题。
This paper first analyzes the state-of-art of urban economy and traffic system, and summarizes the characteristics of traffic development based on the statistical data of Beijing. After the relationship between urban economy and traffic system being studied, the development strategy with traffic problems is put forward. Applying the method of Almon, the paper has conducted research on the relationship between two economical indexes, Beijing highway mileage and GRDP and creates a regressive distributed lag model, which explains the effect of highway mileage upon GRDP. Studies show that highway construction exerts a great pushing effect on regional economic growth. This is to say, the traffic and Infrastructure construction has obvious lag effect for the urban economy of Beijing. This paper mainly describes the economic characteristic of highway facilities and the traffic s current situation in Beijing. The author attempts to obtain some relevant conclusions about how the highway construction influences the regional economic development of Beijing. And further problems about traffic strategic development in Beijing are put forward.
This paper first analyzes the state-of-art of urban economy and traffic system, and summarizes the characteristics of traffic development based on the statistical data of Beijing. After the relationship between urban economy and traffic system being studied, the development strategy with traffic problems is put forward. Applying the method of Almon, the paper has conducted research on the relationship between two economical indexes, Beijing highway mileage and GRDP and creates a regressive distributed lag model, which explains the effect of highway mileage upon GRDP. Studies show that highway construction exerts a great pushing effect on regional economic growth. This is to say, the traffic and Infrastructure construction has obvious lag effect for the urban economy of Beijing. This paper mainly describes the economic characteristic of highway facilities and the traffic s current situation in Beijing. The author attempts to obtain some relevant conclusions about how the highway construction influences the regional economic development of Beijing. And further problems about traffic strategic development in Beijing are put forward.
引文
1王林.公路建设对国民经济的拉动作用分析[J].天津经济. 2010(11): 23-26.
2张志敏,王本利,张永满.公路建设对国民经济拉动影响的理论分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息. 2005(5).
3 Burkhardi Jon E. J L H A. Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Rural Public Transportation. Transportation Research Board[J]. National Research Council. 1998.
4 Forkenbrock D J, Benshoff S. Assessing the Social and Economic Effects of Transportation Projects, National Cooperative Highway Research Program[J]. National Research Council. 2001.
5 Administration F H. Vehicle Operating Costs, Fuel Consumption, and Pavement Type and Condition Factors[M]. U.S. Department of Transportation, 1982.
6 Cohen H F S. On the Measurement and Valuation of Travel Time Variability Due to Incidents on Freeways[J]. Journal of Transportation and Statistics. 1999, 2(2): 123-131.
7 Dahlgren J. High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes: Not Always More Effective Than General Purpose Lanes[J]. Transportation Research. 1998, 32A(2): 99-114.
8 David J. N S J F. Accident Cost Saving and Highway Attributes[J]. Transportation. 1997, 24(1): 79-100.
9 Hartgen D T Y L. Geographic Information Systems Application to Transportation Corridor Planning[J]. Transportation Research Record 1429. 1994: 57-66.
10 Hensher D F M N. Urban Tolled Roadsand the Value of Travel Time Savings[J]. The Economic Record. 1990, 66(193): 146-156.
11 Ishaq M. N. T P M. Contribution of Highway Capital to Output and Productivity Growth in the US Economy and Industries[J]. New York University. 1998.
12 Gkritza K. Economic Development Effect of Highway Investment[J]. Purdue University Phd. 2006: 20-29.
13 Canada T I O. A Primer on Transportation Investment and Economic Development[J]. Transportation Association of Canada. 1994.
14 Administration F H. Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)Technical Report–Final Draft[J]. U.S. Department of Transportation. 1999.
15 Weisbrod Glen B W. Assessing the Economics Impacts of Transportation Projects: How to Choose the Appropriate Technique you're your Project[J]. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council. 1997.
16 Wilbur Smith Associates B J A C. Guide to the Economic Evaluation of Highway Projects[J]. Iowa Department of Transportation. 1993.
17 Nchrp Project F. The Economic Impact of The Interstate Highway System[J]. Technical Memorandum. 2006: 44-46.
18杨文银,刘丽,梅桂滨.公路投资对国民经济的拉动作用初步研究[J].交通部公路规划研究院. 1998.
19杨忻.投入产出方法在交通运输建设项目地区经济效益研究中的应用[J].系统工程. 1995(1): 32-38.
20孙志超.公路交通对经济增长和社会就业贡献及测算方法研究[D].北京交通大学, 2007.
21许云飞,王伟.公路建设拉动国民经济的定量研究[J].山东交通科技. 2000(4): 1-9.
22段静.高速公路社会经济效益评估[D].武汉理工大学, 2002.
23刘南,周庆明.交通基础设施建设投资队国民经济拉动作用的定量分析[J].公路交通科技. 2006, 23(5): 150-154.
24李中秋.论高速公路建设对河北经济发展的影响[J].经济论坛. 2002.
25黄殿会.公路建设对国民经济的拉动作用研究[D].长安大学, 2001.
26王元庆,张志敏,周伟.公路建设投资乘数的算法研究[J].中国公路学报. 2004(2).
27王永祥.高速公路建设对青海经济社会影响研究[D].长安大学, 2005.
28王殿海,栗红强,王建智,等.公路运输发展对国民经济增长贡献率测算方法与应用研究[J].土木工程学报. 2003(7): 100-104.
29梅鸣,胡天军.沈阳过境绕城高速公路社会经济效益后评估的系统动力学模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息. 2005(2): 112-115.
30奚宽武.高速公路后评价理论与方法研究[D].北京工业大学, 2004.
31中华人民共和国交通部.公路工程技术标准[M].北京:人民交通出版社, 2004: 43.
32崔述强.如何看待当前北京经济形势[J].数据. 2009(1): 8-10.
33张顺全.房地产发展对区域经济的影响及作用[J].现代经济信息. 2010(18): 195.
34 Griliches Z. Distributed Lags: A Survey[J]. Econometrica. 1967, 36(1): 16-49.
35李庆扬,王能超,易大义.数值分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2008: 22-46.
36 H A. Stochastic theory of minimal realization[J]. IEEE Trains on Automatic Control. 1974, 19(6): 667-674.
37 Koop G. Analysis of Economic Data, John Wiley & Sons[J]. New York. 2000: 175.
38 Diebold F X. Elements of Forecasting[M]. South Western Publishing, 2001: 254.
39王乃合.经济计划与管理F000123计量经济学基础[R].湖北人民出版社, 2002.
40朱建平,胡朝霞,王艺明编著.高级计量经济学导论[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2009: 292.
41 Almon S. The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures[J]. Econometrica. 1965, 33(January): 178-196.
42叶俊,苏跃斌.有限域上插值多项式的两种构造方法[J].四川理工学院学报(自然科学版). 2010, 23(5): 521-523.
43 Engle R F, Granger C W J. Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation,and Testing[C]. Econimetrica, 1987. 251-276.
44樊欢欢,张凌云编著. EViews统计分析与应用[M].第一版.北京:机械工业出版社, 2009: 245-262.
45郑宗杰本报.我们为您提供高效优质数据资源[N].中国交通报.
46中华人民共和国国家统计局编.中国统计年鉴:[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2010: 176-185.
47北京市统计局国家统计局北京调查总队.《北京统计年鉴》[M].北京统计. 2010, ""(3): 4.
48北京市统计局国家统计局北京调查总队.《北京统计年鉴》[M].北京统计. 2009, ""(3): 4.
49高铁梅主编.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].第二版.北京:清华大学出版社, 2009: 72-73.
50张济民,王开文,池茂儒.基于AIC信息准则法的摆式列车倾摆伺服系统建模研究[J].中国铁道科学. 2003, 24(6): 6-9.
51张文泉,李泓泽.极大似然估计与AIC准则联合建模[J].现代电力. 1999, 16(2): 78-82.
52 A M, U K, J H. Multivariate statistical analysis applied to an IL6 signal transduction model in hepatocytes.[J]. Statistics in medicine. 2009, 28(19): 2401-2434.
53邢振贤,代东旭,王志群.高速公路长寿命路面的发展与实践[J].低温建筑技术. 2009, 31(4): 46-48.
2张志敏,王本利,张永满.公路建设对国民经济拉动影响的理论分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息. 2005(5).
3 Burkhardi Jon E. J L H A. Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Rural Public Transportation. Transportation Research Board[J]. National Research Council. 1998.
4 Forkenbrock D J, Benshoff S. Assessing the Social and Economic Effects of Transportation Projects, National Cooperative Highway Research Program[J]. National Research Council. 2001.
5 Administration F H. Vehicle Operating Costs, Fuel Consumption, and Pavement Type and Condition Factors[M]. U.S. Department of Transportation, 1982.
6 Cohen H F S. On the Measurement and Valuation of Travel Time Variability Due to Incidents on Freeways[J]. Journal of Transportation and Statistics. 1999, 2(2): 123-131.
7 Dahlgren J. High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes: Not Always More Effective Than General Purpose Lanes[J]. Transportation Research. 1998, 32A(2): 99-114.
8 David J. N S J F. Accident Cost Saving and Highway Attributes[J]. Transportation. 1997, 24(1): 79-100.
9 Hartgen D T Y L. Geographic Information Systems Application to Transportation Corridor Planning[J]. Transportation Research Record 1429. 1994: 57-66.
10 Hensher D F M N. Urban Tolled Roadsand the Value of Travel Time Savings[J]. The Economic Record. 1990, 66(193): 146-156.
11 Ishaq M. N. T P M. Contribution of Highway Capital to Output and Productivity Growth in the US Economy and Industries[J]. New York University. 1998.
12 Gkritza K. Economic Development Effect of Highway Investment[J]. Purdue University Phd. 2006: 20-29.
13 Canada T I O. A Primer on Transportation Investment and Economic Development[J]. Transportation Association of Canada. 1994.
14 Administration F H. Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)Technical Report–Final Draft[J]. U.S. Department of Transportation. 1999.
15 Weisbrod Glen B W. Assessing the Economics Impacts of Transportation Projects: How to Choose the Appropriate Technique you're your Project[J]. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council. 1997.
16 Wilbur Smith Associates B J A C. Guide to the Economic Evaluation of Highway Projects[J]. Iowa Department of Transportation. 1993.
17 Nchrp Project F. The Economic Impact of The Interstate Highway System[J]. Technical Memorandum. 2006: 44-46.
18杨文银,刘丽,梅桂滨.公路投资对国民经济的拉动作用初步研究[J].交通部公路规划研究院. 1998.
19杨忻.投入产出方法在交通运输建设项目地区经济效益研究中的应用[J].系统工程. 1995(1): 32-38.
20孙志超.公路交通对经济增长和社会就业贡献及测算方法研究[D].北京交通大学, 2007.
21许云飞,王伟.公路建设拉动国民经济的定量研究[J].山东交通科技. 2000(4): 1-9.
22段静.高速公路社会经济效益评估[D].武汉理工大学, 2002.
23刘南,周庆明.交通基础设施建设投资队国民经济拉动作用的定量分析[J].公路交通科技. 2006, 23(5): 150-154.
24李中秋.论高速公路建设对河北经济发展的影响[J].经济论坛. 2002.
25黄殿会.公路建设对国民经济的拉动作用研究[D].长安大学, 2001.
26王元庆,张志敏,周伟.公路建设投资乘数的算法研究[J].中国公路学报. 2004(2).
27王永祥.高速公路建设对青海经济社会影响研究[D].长安大学, 2005.
28王殿海,栗红强,王建智,等.公路运输发展对国民经济增长贡献率测算方法与应用研究[J].土木工程学报. 2003(7): 100-104.
29梅鸣,胡天军.沈阳过境绕城高速公路社会经济效益后评估的系统动力学模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息. 2005(2): 112-115.
30奚宽武.高速公路后评价理论与方法研究[D].北京工业大学, 2004.
31中华人民共和国交通部.公路工程技术标准[M].北京:人民交通出版社, 2004: 43.
32崔述强.如何看待当前北京经济形势[J].数据. 2009(1): 8-10.
33张顺全.房地产发展对区域经济的影响及作用[J].现代经济信息. 2010(18): 195.
34 Griliches Z. Distributed Lags: A Survey[J]. Econometrica. 1967, 36(1): 16-49.
35李庆扬,王能超,易大义.数值分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2008: 22-46.
36 H A. Stochastic theory of minimal realization[J]. IEEE Trains on Automatic Control. 1974, 19(6): 667-674.
37 Koop G. Analysis of Economic Data, John Wiley & Sons[J]. New York. 2000: 175.
38 Diebold F X. Elements of Forecasting[M]. South Western Publishing, 2001: 254.
39王乃合.经济计划与管理F000123计量经济学基础[R].湖北人民出版社, 2002.
40朱建平,胡朝霞,王艺明编著.高级计量经济学导论[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2009: 292.
41 Almon S. The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures[J]. Econometrica. 1965, 33(January): 178-196.
42叶俊,苏跃斌.有限域上插值多项式的两种构造方法[J].四川理工学院学报(自然科学版). 2010, 23(5): 521-523.
43 Engle R F, Granger C W J. Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation,and Testing[C]. Econimetrica, 1987. 251-276.
44樊欢欢,张凌云编著. EViews统计分析与应用[M].第一版.北京:机械工业出版社, 2009: 245-262.
45郑宗杰本报.我们为您提供高效优质数据资源[N].中国交通报.
46中华人民共和国国家统计局编.中国统计年鉴:[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2010: 176-185.
47北京市统计局国家统计局北京调查总队.《北京统计年鉴》[M].北京统计. 2010, ""(3): 4.
48北京市统计局国家统计局北京调查总队.《北京统计年鉴》[M].北京统计. 2009, ""(3): 4.
49高铁梅主编.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].第二版.北京:清华大学出版社, 2009: 72-73.
50张济民,王开文,池茂儒.基于AIC信息准则法的摆式列车倾摆伺服系统建模研究[J].中国铁道科学. 2003, 24(6): 6-9.
51张文泉,李泓泽.极大似然估计与AIC准则联合建模[J].现代电力. 1999, 16(2): 78-82.
52 A M, U K, J H. Multivariate statistical analysis applied to an IL6 signal transduction model in hepatocytes.[J]. Statistics in medicine. 2009, 28(19): 2401-2434.
53邢振贤,代东旭,王志群.高速公路长寿命路面的发展与实践[J].低温建筑技术. 2009, 31(4): 46-48.
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