政府保障性住房支出对城镇居民消费影响研究
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摘要
自1998年起，我国结束了福利住房分配制度，全面实行住房分配货币化，住房市场完成由计划模式向市场模式的转变，全面进入商品化时代。2003年以来，经过多年的住房改革中国房地产市场快速发育，房地产行业在国民经济中的地位逐步上升；居民购房踊跃，无论在整体居住水平上还是住房建设质量上都得到了显著改善。但是近年来，随着房价的急剧上涨以及波动，出现了诸如中低收入家庭购房困难、社会财富和分配差距扩大等一系列社会问题。这不仅关系到住房分配中的公平问题，还关系到城镇中低收入家庭的基本居住要求是否得到了基本满足，对这些问题的妥善处理直接影响着社会的稳定和经济健康发展。房地产价格的高企激发了人们对中国住房保障制度的探索。在住房资源的配置效率已从制度上得到基本保证之后，加快构建社会主义住房保障制度以解决商品房市场中的公平问题成为下一轮改革的攻坚问题。合理的住房保障政策选择，会对人们的消费行为产生影响，这不仅体现在促进消费支出水平上，更能改善消费结构，从而在扩大国内市场需求的同时调整需求结构，对经济的可持续良性发展起到积极作用。
在对国内外有关保障性住房支出与城镇居民消费相关文献进行系统梳理后，本文构建了分析保障性住房政策对城镇居民消费影响的理论框架，并运用这一框架实证研究了如下内容：
第4章对保障性住房支出对城镇居民总体消费、住房消费以及家电消费进行了面板数据实证分析。其结论认为，就总体消费而言，在控制了人口密度、可支配收入和住宅销售价格的情况下，短期内，由于购房支出挤占了消费支出，所以保障性住房供给会减少居民总体消费支出，而长期内，保障性住房支出则仍会促进居民消费，且长期的促进作用大于短期的挤出效应，从而在总体上来说，保障性住房供给的增多会促进消费水平上升。就住房消费而言，在控制了城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口数量和商品房价格的情况下，保障性住房供给的增加不论在短期还是长期，都对住房消费有刺激作用，只是短期影响力度要小于长期；政府保障性住房支出对城镇居民家电消费也具有正向作用，且不论短期还是长期均呈现上升趋势。保障性住房供给量的提升一方面提高了居民住房消费率，必然影响与住房相关的家电产业消费需求；另一方面经济适用房供给减轻了城镇居民家庭购房负担，释放了大量购买力，使得居民家庭有更多的可支配收入改善家庭环境和居住条件，从而启动家电消费。
第5章就保障性住房支出的房地产价格效应对城镇居民消费影响进行了实证检验和分析。就保障性住房对商品房价格增长率的时间序列实证检验而言，长期和短期内，政府经济适用房投资可以降低商品房价格增长速度，说明政府保障性住房建设支出对于抑制房价快速上涨有积极的作用。而从绝对数值上来看，经济适用房销售面积与商品房价格呈现高度负相关关系。这说明政府支出大规模兴建保障性住房，可以分流市场住房需求导致商品房价格下降。同时论文还验证了我国房地产市场财富效应不显著，很可能是由于过高的房价挤出了居民消费。
第6章论文从保障性住房供给的角度，探究其财富效应门槛值，从而深化了解住房保障对扩大内需的影响。论文采用了非线性STR模型，结果表明，保障住房的供给会使房地产价格的财富效应发生V型逆转，即当保障性住房供给处于低水平时（小于4.03%），房地产价格的财富效应为负向，房价上涨会抑制消费增加；当保障房供给处于高水平时（大于4.03%），房地产价格具有正向的财富效应，房价上涨促进消费增加。
第7章和第8章讨论了政府保障性住房支出的投资效应及就业效应对城镇居民消费的影响。保障性住房除了在微观领域改变消费者面临的约束条件，还会在宏观领域影响私人投资和就业。第7章注重保障性住房的投资效应，通过对投资效应的时间序列分析得出保障性住房供给可以在长期挤入房地产市场私人投资，从而增加消费。第8章研究保障性住房的就业效应及其对消费的影响，通过面板数据的实证分析和投入产出模型的绝对数分析，可知保障性住房建设可以创造新的就业岗位，从而带动收入水平上升，扩大消费。
第9章在以上各章的实证分析基础之上给出了相关政策建议。明确保障性住房目标群体，合理规划建设规模，同时还要在建设保障性住房的情况下，保证房地产市场的正常运行，使得保障性和市场性有效结合。
Since1998, China has ended the welfare housing distribution system, and fullyimplemented the monetization of housing distribution. Since then, the housing markethas gradually complmented the transition from planning mode to marketing mode, andcomprehensively promoted the commercial era. From2003, after years of housingreform, China's real estate market has rapidly developed; and the position of the realestate industry in the national economy has gradually risen. At the same time, residentsactively take part in the housing purchasing, and the whole living standards and qualityhas did significantly improved. But recent years, the sharply rise and volatility of thehousing prices produce some livelihood issues, such as difficulty in low-income familieshousing purchasing and expension of social wealth and distribution gap and so on. Thisis not only related to the injustice of the housing distribution, but also related to the basichousing requirement of mid-and low-income families. How to deal with these issuesappropriately affect the economic growth and social stabilization indirectly. High realestate price has stimulated us to explore the housing security system. After the allocationefficiency of housing resources guaranteed basically in system, accletating theconstruction of socalist housing security system to handle the fairness problem in realestate market has been the crucial issue in the next round of reform. Proper housingsecurity policies option have effected on consumer behaviors, that not only promote thelevel of consumption spending but also improve the consumption structure, leading toexpand domestic market demand and adjust the demand structure, and finally paly apositive role on sound and sustainable economic development.
After systematically sorting of the relevant litetature on public housing expenditureand urban residents’ consumption at home and abroad, the paper has constructed thetheoretical framework to analysis of public housing policies on urban residents’consumption, and then makes use of the framework to empirical research as thefollowing:
Chapter4thusing the panel data has empirically analysed security housingexpenditure effect on urban residents’ general consumption, housing consumption and household electrical appliances consumption. The conclusions that in terms of generalconsumption, under the control of population density, disposable income and residentialsales price, in the short term security housing supply will reduce general consumptionexpenditure of urban residents because of housing purchase expenditures crowding outconsumption, but in the long term security housing supply will promote the generalconsumer expenditure, and the long term effect is greater than the short trem, soincreasing the security housing supply will raise the consumption level. And in terms ofhousing consumption, under the control of disposable income, population and housingprices, whether in long-term or short-term, increasing the security housing supply has astimulating effect on the housing consumption, only the long-term policy have moreinfluence than the short-term. The household electrical appliances consumption of urbanresidents also has increased with the security housing supply and whether short-term orlong-term has shown an upward trend. The increase of the security housing supply willenhance the residential housing consumption rate, which inevitably affects the demand ofhousehold appliances consumption related to real estate industry. On the other hand,affordable housing supply has reduced the burden of housing purchase of urban residentand then released a large number of purchasing power, which makes households havemore disposable income to improve the environment and living conditions and promotesthe consumption of home appliances.
Chapter5thhas empirically tested and analysis the impact of effect of real estateprice of security housing spending on urban residents’ consumption. Using time seriesempirically testing the impact of affordable housing on the growth rate of housing prices,we find that nomatter in the long term and short term, government security housingspending can reduce the growth rate of housing prices, which has illustrated governmentsecurity housing investment has positive role on control housing prices growth rapidlly.For the absolute value point view, affordable housing sales area and the price ofcommercial housing is highly negative correlation. The fact has shown that large-scaleconstruction of affordable housing can shunt market housing demand so as to declinehouisng prices. At the same time, the paper has supported the results that the wealtheffect of real estate in China is insignifcant, and maybe due to the high prices out of theresidents’ consumption.
Chapter6thfrom the affordable housing supply perspective has explored the wealtheffect of threshold value so as to deepen the understanding of housing security to expandthe domestic demand. This paper adopts the nonlinear STR model, results showing that,affordable housing supply will make the wealth effect of the real estate price ‘V’ typereversal, namely, when the affordable housing supply is at low levels (less than4.03%),the wealth effect of real estate prices is negative, at that time, the going up of the housingprices will curb the consumption increasing; when the affordable housing supply is athigh levels (greater than4.03%), the wealth effect of the real estate price is positive, thegoing up of the housing prices will promote the consumption increasing.
Chapter7thand8thhas discussed the impact of the investment effect andemployment effect of government security housing spending on urban residents’consumption. Security housing not only has changed the constraint conditions facingconsumers from micro-level, but also has influenced the private investment andemployment in macroeconomic field. Chapter7thhas focused on the investment effect ofaffordable housing. Using time series data, this chapter has analyzed affordable housingsupply in the long term would push private investment into real estata market, leading toconsumption promotion. Chapter8thhas tested the employment effect on consumption.Through the empirical analysis of panel data and absolute value analysis of input-outputmodel, we think out that the security housing construction can creat large new jobs andincrease the income and expand consumption.
Chapter9thon the basis of the above chapters’ analysis has given the relevant policyrecommendations. The government must have a clear target popultion for securityhousing, reasonable planning and construction of the scales. And in the construction ofaffordable housing situation, real estate market must be ensured to operate normally so asto the security and the market combination.
在对国内外有关保障性住房支出与城镇居民消费相关文献进行系统梳理后，本文构建了分析保障性住房政策对城镇居民消费影响的理论框架，并运用这一框架实证研究了如下内容：
第4章对保障性住房支出对城镇居民总体消费、住房消费以及家电消费进行了面板数据实证分析。其结论认为，就总体消费而言，在控制了人口密度、可支配收入和住宅销售价格的情况下，短期内，由于购房支出挤占了消费支出，所以保障性住房供给会减少居民总体消费支出，而长期内，保障性住房支出则仍会促进居民消费，且长期的促进作用大于短期的挤出效应，从而在总体上来说，保障性住房供给的增多会促进消费水平上升。就住房消费而言，在控制了城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口数量和商品房价格的情况下，保障性住房供给的增加不论在短期还是长期，都对住房消费有刺激作用，只是短期影响力度要小于长期；政府保障性住房支出对城镇居民家电消费也具有正向作用，且不论短期还是长期均呈现上升趋势。保障性住房供给量的提升一方面提高了居民住房消费率，必然影响与住房相关的家电产业消费需求；另一方面经济适用房供给减轻了城镇居民家庭购房负担，释放了大量购买力，使得居民家庭有更多的可支配收入改善家庭环境和居住条件，从而启动家电消费。
第5章就保障性住房支出的房地产价格效应对城镇居民消费影响进行了实证检验和分析。就保障性住房对商品房价格增长率的时间序列实证检验而言，长期和短期内，政府经济适用房投资可以降低商品房价格增长速度，说明政府保障性住房建设支出对于抑制房价快速上涨有积极的作用。而从绝对数值上来看，经济适用房销售面积与商品房价格呈现高度负相关关系。这说明政府支出大规模兴建保障性住房，可以分流市场住房需求导致商品房价格下降。同时论文还验证了我国房地产市场财富效应不显著，很可能是由于过高的房价挤出了居民消费。
第6章论文从保障性住房供给的角度，探究其财富效应门槛值，从而深化了解住房保障对扩大内需的影响。论文采用了非线性STR模型，结果表明，保障住房的供给会使房地产价格的财富效应发生V型逆转，即当保障性住房供给处于低水平时（小于4.03%），房地产价格的财富效应为负向，房价上涨会抑制消费增加；当保障房供给处于高水平时（大于4.03%），房地产价格具有正向的财富效应，房价上涨促进消费增加。
第7章和第8章讨论了政府保障性住房支出的投资效应及就业效应对城镇居民消费的影响。保障性住房除了在微观领域改变消费者面临的约束条件，还会在宏观领域影响私人投资和就业。第7章注重保障性住房的投资效应，通过对投资效应的时间序列分析得出保障性住房供给可以在长期挤入房地产市场私人投资，从而增加消费。第8章研究保障性住房的就业效应及其对消费的影响，通过面板数据的实证分析和投入产出模型的绝对数分析，可知保障性住房建设可以创造新的就业岗位，从而带动收入水平上升，扩大消费。
第9章在以上各章的实证分析基础之上给出了相关政策建议。明确保障性住房目标群体，合理规划建设规模，同时还要在建设保障性住房的情况下，保证房地产市场的正常运行，使得保障性和市场性有效结合。
Since1998, China has ended the welfare housing distribution system, and fullyimplemented the monetization of housing distribution. Since then, the housing markethas gradually complmented the transition from planning mode to marketing mode, andcomprehensively promoted the commercial era. From2003, after years of housingreform, China's real estate market has rapidly developed; and the position of the realestate industry in the national economy has gradually risen. At the same time, residentsactively take part in the housing purchasing, and the whole living standards and qualityhas did significantly improved. But recent years, the sharply rise and volatility of thehousing prices produce some livelihood issues, such as difficulty in low-income familieshousing purchasing and expension of social wealth and distribution gap and so on. Thisis not only related to the injustice of the housing distribution, but also related to the basichousing requirement of mid-and low-income families. How to deal with these issuesappropriately affect the economic growth and social stabilization indirectly. High realestate price has stimulated us to explore the housing security system. After the allocationefficiency of housing resources guaranteed basically in system, accletating theconstruction of socalist housing security system to handle the fairness problem in realestate market has been the crucial issue in the next round of reform. Proper housingsecurity policies option have effected on consumer behaviors, that not only promote thelevel of consumption spending but also improve the consumption structure, leading toexpand domestic market demand and adjust the demand structure, and finally paly apositive role on sound and sustainable economic development.
After systematically sorting of the relevant litetature on public housing expenditureand urban residents’ consumption at home and abroad, the paper has constructed thetheoretical framework to analysis of public housing policies on urban residents’consumption, and then makes use of the framework to empirical research as thefollowing:
Chapter4thusing the panel data has empirically analysed security housingexpenditure effect on urban residents’ general consumption, housing consumption and household electrical appliances consumption. The conclusions that in terms of generalconsumption, under the control of population density, disposable income and residentialsales price, in the short term security housing supply will reduce general consumptionexpenditure of urban residents because of housing purchase expenditures crowding outconsumption, but in the long term security housing supply will promote the generalconsumer expenditure, and the long term effect is greater than the short trem, soincreasing the security housing supply will raise the consumption level. And in terms ofhousing consumption, under the control of disposable income, population and housingprices, whether in long-term or short-term, increasing the security housing supply has astimulating effect on the housing consumption, only the long-term policy have moreinfluence than the short-term. The household electrical appliances consumption of urbanresidents also has increased with the security housing supply and whether short-term orlong-term has shown an upward trend. The increase of the security housing supply willenhance the residential housing consumption rate, which inevitably affects the demand ofhousehold appliances consumption related to real estate industry. On the other hand,affordable housing supply has reduced the burden of housing purchase of urban residentand then released a large number of purchasing power, which makes households havemore disposable income to improve the environment and living conditions and promotesthe consumption of home appliances.
Chapter5thhas empirically tested and analysis the impact of effect of real estateprice of security housing spending on urban residents’ consumption. Using time seriesempirically testing the impact of affordable housing on the growth rate of housing prices,we find that nomatter in the long term and short term, government security housingspending can reduce the growth rate of housing prices, which has illustrated governmentsecurity housing investment has positive role on control housing prices growth rapidlly.For the absolute value point view, affordable housing sales area and the price ofcommercial housing is highly negative correlation. The fact has shown that large-scaleconstruction of affordable housing can shunt market housing demand so as to declinehouisng prices. At the same time, the paper has supported the results that the wealtheffect of real estate in China is insignifcant, and maybe due to the high prices out of theresidents’ consumption.
Chapter6thfrom the affordable housing supply perspective has explored the wealtheffect of threshold value so as to deepen the understanding of housing security to expandthe domestic demand. This paper adopts the nonlinear STR model, results showing that,affordable housing supply will make the wealth effect of the real estate price ‘V’ typereversal, namely, when the affordable housing supply is at low levels (less than4.03%),the wealth effect of real estate prices is negative, at that time, the going up of the housingprices will curb the consumption increasing; when the affordable housing supply is athigh levels (greater than4.03%), the wealth effect of the real estate price is positive, thegoing up of the housing prices will promote the consumption increasing.
Chapter7thand8thhas discussed the impact of the investment effect andemployment effect of government security housing spending on urban residents’consumption. Security housing not only has changed the constraint conditions facingconsumers from micro-level, but also has influenced the private investment andemployment in macroeconomic field. Chapter7thhas focused on the investment effect ofaffordable housing. Using time series data, this chapter has analyzed affordable housingsupply in the long term would push private investment into real estata market, leading toconsumption promotion. Chapter8thhas tested the employment effect on consumption.Through the empirical analysis of panel data and absolute value analysis of input-outputmodel, we think out that the security housing construction can creat large new jobs andincrease the income and expand consumption.
Chapter9thon the basis of the above chapters’ analysis has given the relevant policyrecommendations. The government must have a clear target popultion for securityhousing, reasonable planning and construction of the scales. And in the construction ofaffordable housing situation, real estate market must be ensured to operate normally so asto the security and the market combination.
引文
①胡书东.中国财政支出和民间消费需求之间的关系[J].中国社会科学，2002（6）：26-32
①王辉龙.《中国房地产价格波动与居民消费行为关系研究》，南京大学博士论文，2009年。
①满燕云．中国的住房改革及成效[M]．北京：经济管理出版社，2011
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