我国物流产业系统演化机理研究
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摘要
当前,世界物流的发展表现出全球化、信息化、电子化、高科技化等特点,在现代经济中的地位不断攀升,同时扮演着服务者、联络者和调节者的三重角色。国外物流企业开始进入我国,使得我国物流业面临激烈的竞争挑战。我国各级政府重视物流产业的发展,物流市场需求快速上升,物流成本占GDP比重逐渐下降,物流产业发展取得了一定的成就,但其发展现状仍然不能适应国民经济发展的要求,还存在物流社会化程度低,物流企业“小、散、差”;产业协调性差,物流产业管理模式不合理,存在严重的体制性障碍等诸多问题。
我国物流业正面临调整和转型。振兴物流业将是我国当前和今后相当长时期内的一项重大任务。由于传统产业经济理论在研究物流产业经济方面具有一定的局限性,因此需要我们以新的视角来加深对物流产业的研究。系统研究物流产业演化问题就具有重要理论价值和现实意义。
本文把物流产业作为一个复杂的系统,从演化的角度,综合运用自组织理论、灰色系统理论、分工理论等多学科知识,结合物流业的行业特色和实际存在的问题,采用定量和定性分析相结合、多主体建模、逻辑斯谛方程等方法对物流产业系统演化发展的微观主体、中观主体、宏观主体三个层次进行了研究。具体研究内容及研究成果如下:
1、分析了物流产业系统内部构成主体要素、结构、特性,从系统的角度界定了物流产业演化发展的内涵。
2、深入地研究物流产业系统微观主体的演进。基于分工理论研究物流产业系统微观主体的发展历程,建立数学模型分析物流产业系统微观主体的生长及稳定性,并应用能力要素理论研究微观主体物流能力提高的路径,最后结合我国物流产业微观主体的演进及现状提出物流企业的生态结构模型。研究得出物流产业系统微观主体演化机理,演化路径,并把物流市场分离成为三个主要细分市场:综合物流市场、区域物流市场、以及专业物流市场。
3、从物流产业系统的中观层面研究物流产业系统的演化机制。通过对我国物流业的投入产出及波及效果研究,可知我国物流产业正处于由中间产品型基础产业向中间产品型产业过渡阶段,我国物流业的发展对制造业有较强的依赖性和较大的拉动作用,对农业的依赖性较小;物流产业部门的产品主要流向建筑业、制造业,物流产业提供的服务还主要是生产性服务。物流产业系统产业关联的演化轨迹表明物流产业与制造业的产业关联最强。制造业与物流业发展过程中,制造业处于相对主动和优势的谈判地位,而物流业则在某种程度上处于被动和从属地位。
4、对物流产业系统演化过程中的宏观主体进行研究。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对物流产业系统市场需求进行预测,运用灰色关联模型研究了物流产业系统宏观主体的灰色关联度。研究结果表明物流规模的增长主要取决于物流外包企业物流服务业务的释放,信息通讯技术虽然在一定程度上促进现代物流产业的形成,但现代物流产业的发展更多的依赖于国民经济的发展及对物流产业固定资产的投入。
通过物流产业系统微观、中观和宏观三个层面的研究,进一步明确了我国物流产业的演进机理,为物流产业市场建设和物流行业发展政策的制定提供可供借鉴的决策参考。
Currently, the world logistics is developing with the characteristics of globalization and information , and electronic technology and high-tech. With the rising position in the modern economy, it is playing triple roles as the service provider, the contact person and the regulator at the same time. Foreign logistics enterprises are entering our country, which makes our logistics industry face challenges of intensive competitions. Governments at all levels have attached importance to the development of the logistics industry. With a rapidly increasing of the demanding in the logistics market and the gradual declining of logistics costs in the proportion of GDP, the logistics industry has made certain achievements. But the level of development still can not meet the requirements of our economic development. There is also a low level of socialization of the logistics. Besides, logistics companies are "small, scattered and poor", which makes it difficult to meet the need for integrated logistics services of foreign multinational companies. What’s more, there are some problems such as the poor industrial coordination, the unreasonable model of the logistics industrial management, serious institutional barriers and so on.
The logistics industry in China is facing the adjustment and transition. The revitalization of the logistics industry will be considered as a significant task at present and for a long period. As the traditional industrial economic theory has certain limitations in the study of the logistics industry, we need a new perspective to deepen the study of the logistics industry. Systematic researching on the question of the evolution of logistics industry has an important theoretical value and practical significance.
On the evolutionary point , with the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, multi-agent modeling and logistic equation, the industry characteristics, practical problems in the logistics industry and multi-disciplinary knowledge such as self-organization theory, gray system theory and the theory of division of labor, this article has research on the three levels that include the microscopic subject, the medium subject and the macroscopic subject in the period of evolution and development of the logistics industry system which is considered as a complex system. Specific research content and research results are as follows:
1.To analyze the main elements, structure, characteristics of the logistics industry, and define the meaning of evolution of the logistics industry from the systematic point of view.
2.To study on the evolution of microscopic subjects of the logistics industry system. Based on the division theory, it is discussed that the course of development of the microscopic subjects in logistics industry system. Besides, it is analyzed that the growth and stability of microscopic subject in logistics industry system with the established mathematical model. What’s more, it is discussed that the methods to improve the logistics capabilities of microscopic subjects by applying the capability element theory. At last, combined with the evolution and status quo of microscopic subject in logistics industry, the author comes up with the biological structure model of logistics enterprises. The researching results are as follows:the evolution mechanism of the microscopic subject in the logistics industry system; the logistics market should be separated into three main segments: integrated logistics market, the regional logistics market as well as the professional logistics market.
3.To study the evolution mechanisms of the logistics industry system from the medium level of the logistics industry system. Throughout the research of the spill-over effects and the effects of the input and output of Chinese logistics industry, we can see that Chinese logistics industry is transiting from the intermediate product-based basic industry to the intermediate product industry. It been demonstrated the following characteristics: Chinese logistics industry has a strong dependence and large pulling effects on the manufacturing and less dependence on agriculture; the products of Logistics industry sector mainly flow into instruction, manufacturing.The services provided by the logistics industry are productive. The evolution tracks of the industrial association in the logistics industry systems is showing the strongest association of the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry. In the development processing of the manufacturing and logistics industry, the manufacturing is at the relatively active and negotiating position, while the logistics industry is at a passive and subordinate status in some extent.
4.To study the macroscopic subjects in the evolution process of the logistics industry.Use gray GM (1, 1) model to predict market demand subjects and use gray relational model to study gray correlation degree of macroscopic subjects in logistics industry. Researching results improve that the development of the logistics industry has a strong dependence to the development of our country economic and the fixed assets inputing.Although the information and commumication technology at some degree is advancing the development of the logistics industry,the increasing logistics scale mainly is depending on the logistics services made by the enterprises with the released outside-operations
Throughout three levels researching ,the evolution mechanism has been proved .The article maybe is useful to structure the logistics market and make the developing policy of the logistics industry.
我国物流业正面临调整和转型。振兴物流业将是我国当前和今后相当长时期内的一项重大任务。由于传统产业经济理论在研究物流产业经济方面具有一定的局限性,因此需要我们以新的视角来加深对物流产业的研究。系统研究物流产业演化问题就具有重要理论价值和现实意义。
本文把物流产业作为一个复杂的系统,从演化的角度,综合运用自组织理论、灰色系统理论、分工理论等多学科知识,结合物流业的行业特色和实际存在的问题,采用定量和定性分析相结合、多主体建模、逻辑斯谛方程等方法对物流产业系统演化发展的微观主体、中观主体、宏观主体三个层次进行了研究。具体研究内容及研究成果如下:
1、分析了物流产业系统内部构成主体要素、结构、特性,从系统的角度界定了物流产业演化发展的内涵。
2、深入地研究物流产业系统微观主体的演进。基于分工理论研究物流产业系统微观主体的发展历程,建立数学模型分析物流产业系统微观主体的生长及稳定性,并应用能力要素理论研究微观主体物流能力提高的路径,最后结合我国物流产业微观主体的演进及现状提出物流企业的生态结构模型。研究得出物流产业系统微观主体演化机理,演化路径,并把物流市场分离成为三个主要细分市场:综合物流市场、区域物流市场、以及专业物流市场。
3、从物流产业系统的中观层面研究物流产业系统的演化机制。通过对我国物流业的投入产出及波及效果研究,可知我国物流产业正处于由中间产品型基础产业向中间产品型产业过渡阶段,我国物流业的发展对制造业有较强的依赖性和较大的拉动作用,对农业的依赖性较小;物流产业部门的产品主要流向建筑业、制造业,物流产业提供的服务还主要是生产性服务。物流产业系统产业关联的演化轨迹表明物流产业与制造业的产业关联最强。制造业与物流业发展过程中,制造业处于相对主动和优势的谈判地位,而物流业则在某种程度上处于被动和从属地位。
4、对物流产业系统演化过程中的宏观主体进行研究。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对物流产业系统市场需求进行预测,运用灰色关联模型研究了物流产业系统宏观主体的灰色关联度。研究结果表明物流规模的增长主要取决于物流外包企业物流服务业务的释放,信息通讯技术虽然在一定程度上促进现代物流产业的形成,但现代物流产业的发展更多的依赖于国民经济的发展及对物流产业固定资产的投入。
通过物流产业系统微观、中观和宏观三个层面的研究,进一步明确了我国物流产业的演进机理,为物流产业市场建设和物流行业发展政策的制定提供可供借鉴的决策参考。
Currently, the world logistics is developing with the characteristics of globalization and information , and electronic technology and high-tech. With the rising position in the modern economy, it is playing triple roles as the service provider, the contact person and the regulator at the same time. Foreign logistics enterprises are entering our country, which makes our logistics industry face challenges of intensive competitions. Governments at all levels have attached importance to the development of the logistics industry. With a rapidly increasing of the demanding in the logistics market and the gradual declining of logistics costs in the proportion of GDP, the logistics industry has made certain achievements. But the level of development still can not meet the requirements of our economic development. There is also a low level of socialization of the logistics. Besides, logistics companies are "small, scattered and poor", which makes it difficult to meet the need for integrated logistics services of foreign multinational companies. What’s more, there are some problems such as the poor industrial coordination, the unreasonable model of the logistics industrial management, serious institutional barriers and so on.
The logistics industry in China is facing the adjustment and transition. The revitalization of the logistics industry will be considered as a significant task at present and for a long period. As the traditional industrial economic theory has certain limitations in the study of the logistics industry, we need a new perspective to deepen the study of the logistics industry. Systematic researching on the question of the evolution of logistics industry has an important theoretical value and practical significance.
On the evolutionary point , with the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, multi-agent modeling and logistic equation, the industry characteristics, practical problems in the logistics industry and multi-disciplinary knowledge such as self-organization theory, gray system theory and the theory of division of labor, this article has research on the three levels that include the microscopic subject, the medium subject and the macroscopic subject in the period of evolution and development of the logistics industry system which is considered as a complex system. Specific research content and research results are as follows:
1.To analyze the main elements, structure, characteristics of the logistics industry, and define the meaning of evolution of the logistics industry from the systematic point of view.
2.To study on the evolution of microscopic subjects of the logistics industry system. Based on the division theory, it is discussed that the course of development of the microscopic subjects in logistics industry system. Besides, it is analyzed that the growth and stability of microscopic subject in logistics industry system with the established mathematical model. What’s more, it is discussed that the methods to improve the logistics capabilities of microscopic subjects by applying the capability element theory. At last, combined with the evolution and status quo of microscopic subject in logistics industry, the author comes up with the biological structure model of logistics enterprises. The researching results are as follows:the evolution mechanism of the microscopic subject in the logistics industry system; the logistics market should be separated into three main segments: integrated logistics market, the regional logistics market as well as the professional logistics market.
3.To study the evolution mechanisms of the logistics industry system from the medium level of the logistics industry system. Throughout the research of the spill-over effects and the effects of the input and output of Chinese logistics industry, we can see that Chinese logistics industry is transiting from the intermediate product-based basic industry to the intermediate product industry. It been demonstrated the following characteristics: Chinese logistics industry has a strong dependence and large pulling effects on the manufacturing and less dependence on agriculture; the products of Logistics industry sector mainly flow into instruction, manufacturing.The services provided by the logistics industry are productive. The evolution tracks of the industrial association in the logistics industry systems is showing the strongest association of the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry. In the development processing of the manufacturing and logistics industry, the manufacturing is at the relatively active and negotiating position, while the logistics industry is at a passive and subordinate status in some extent.
4.To study the macroscopic subjects in the evolution process of the logistics industry.Use gray GM (1, 1) model to predict market demand subjects and use gray relational model to study gray correlation degree of macroscopic subjects in logistics industry. Researching results improve that the development of the logistics industry has a strong dependence to the development of our country economic and the fixed assets inputing.Although the information and commumication technology at some degree is advancing the development of the logistics industry,the increasing logistics scale mainly is depending on the logistics services made by the enterprises with the released outside-operations
Throughout three levels researching ,the evolution mechanism has been proved .The article maybe is useful to structure the logistics market and make the developing policy of the logistics industry.
引文
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