旧城更新决策系统动态模型构建与仿真研究
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摘要
城市是指社会经济发展到一定阶段所形成的社会经济、政治、文化教育的中心枢纽和功能多样的独立有机体。作为人类最普遍的一种聚居场所，城市在不同的时空概念上表现出不同的居住生活及生产形态，是一种能体现不同人类群体特性的特殊系统。随着中国经济发展模式的转变和“资源节约型与环境友好型”社会建设趋势的形成，中国现代城市建设的重点已由规模扩张速度发展型向环境功能持续改善型转变。
旧城是指城市中建成历史相对长久的区域，经过多年演变生长，形成相对稳定的社会经济结构和特定的地域风俗文化，具有丰富的可持续发展资源。旧城更新是指为了恢复旧城活力，发挥旧城应有的作用，调整原有的结构模式等目的，采取补偿物质缺损，调整人口分布等措施，以达到改善环境、振兴经济、改善生活质量的城市社会经济活动。相对城市新区开发建设而言，旧城区在建设规模速度、环境功能质量、先进技术应用、社区同步发展等可持续发展要素比较中一般处于滞后状态，旧城区经济衰退和社会环境的劣化加速也将导致日益严重的旧城社会问题。
系统动力学理论是系统科学和管理科学的重要分支，是一门认识和解决系统问题的交叉综合性学科。从系统动力学观点分析，旧城更新系统是一类高阶次、多重反馈回路、高度非线性的复杂系统，它具有反直观性、对系统内多数参数变化的不敏感性和对政策改变的顽强抵制性等特点，该系统的远期与近期、整体与局部之间利益的矛盾往往难于调和。本文结合系统动力学、城市更新和可持续发展理论，构建了基于可持续发展的旧城更新系统，设计提出了旧城更新的系统动力学因果反馈回路，进行了数量分析和数学建模，并基于旧城更新系统动力特性，运用仿真手段对旧城更新系统进行了社会经济决策仿真实验。本文的研究内容和主要成果有：
(1)基于系统动力学和可持续发展观的旧城可持续更新决策理论
综合系统动力学学科特点，研究了系统动力学在城市与区域发展政策评价、城市建设规划与管理和城市环境管理与公众参与中的应用，分析了不同应用中主要的反馈回路，对城市发展政策决策的系统动力学运用进行了比较，提出了其在旧城更新政策决策的主要反馈回路应用和借鉴。
(2)基于可持续发展的旧城更新系统动态决策框架
通过对旧城更新系统的经济社会动力结构动力特性分析，提出了基于可持续发展理论的旧城更新系统熵增原则，建立了基于可持续发展理论的旧城更新系统发展目标函数，提出了基于可持续发展的旧城更新动力系统和城市机能新陈代谢机制框架图。
(3)基于系统反馈回路的旧城更新系统动力学行为模式
基于系统论观点，将旧城更新系统划分为若干个主要的子系统，通过分析各个子系统间的相互关联和影响机制，设计建立了旧城更新经济、社会、环境子系统的反馈回路——这些导致系统内部不断加强或减弱的影响因素及其数量关系，分析演绎了旧城更新系统动力学行为模式。
(4)基于系统动力学的旧城可持续更新系统动态模型
基于复杂性经济理论，结合系统反馈回路设计与数量关系，提出了运用系统动力学原理建模与调控的五个基本步骤，分别对旧城更新经济、社会、环境子系统进行建模，讨论了各子系统变量的自身函数及其子系统之间变量的的函数关系，建立了旧城更新系统动力学模型。
(5)基于系统动力学的旧城更新仿真优化决策
运用系统动力学仿真软件Vensim和计量经济学统计软件Eviews，经过对案例旧城区历史数据进行系统调查和处理，输入模型并进行训练和修正模型，对已有政策进行了仿真拟合和敏感性分析，并对旧城更新政策决策进行了多项仿真分析和实验。
(6)基于决策仿真的旧城更新与复苏政策仿真实验
在多项政策实验和仿真基础上，提出了城市发展过程中旧城更新与复苏的政策优化与建议，在分析所建模型优点及不足的基础上，提出了有待进一步研究的问题和方向。
Old city is the region with a relatively long history that forms a stable socio-economic structure and specific geographical customs and culture after many years of evolution and growth, all of which frame abundant resources for the sustainable development. And urban renewal is the city project that aims to make the old residential housing with quality to meet modern living standards and with the potential of sustainable development as well, all by means of replacing, supplementing and improving, reconstructing and making creation to the elements of obsolescent functions and deteriorated environment in the old city. As the most common living place, the city, a special system where people have resided with different living styles and production patterns along the time-and-space axes, reflects the characteristics of different group of people. With the transformation of economic development mode and construction of resources-saving and environmentally-friendly society, the emphasis of modern urban construction in China has been transformed from the quick development of scale-based expansion model to the continually improving environmental functions model. Compared with the development and construction in new area, the old city has lagged behind in the aspects of construction scale and speed, environmental functions and quality, application of advanced technologies, community development, and so on. What's worse, there are increasingly serious social problems causing by the economic recession and deterioration of social contexts in the old city.
System dynamics theory is an important branch of systemic science and management science. It is comprehensively interdisciplinary and useful to recognize and solve systemic problems. From the perspective of system dynamics, the urban renewal system is a kind of complex and highly nonlinear system with the characteristics of high level of order and loop multiplicity. Such system is counter-intuitive, mostly not sensitive to the changes of parameters within and therefore with great resistance to the changes of policies. All these characteristics lead to the difficulty to reconcile the contradictions of system's interests from the view of long-term versus short-term and overall versus partial. This paper, drawing on the system dynamics theory together with the theory of urban renewal and sustainable development principles, firstly describes the urban renewal system based on the principle of sustainable development. Then it proposes the system dynamics causal feedback loops in the urban renewal system and analyzes the relationships within the system establishing the mathematical model. Finally, based on the system dynamics characteristics of the old city, the paper uses the Vensim software to carry on the socio-economic and policy simulation to the urban renewal system.
Guided by the three main aspects, the contents are arranged as follows:
(1) Integrate the system dynamics and sustainable development theory to research on the topic of urban renewal policy-making.
In the beginning, the paper, on one hand combining the characteristics of system dynamics, presents the application of system dynamics in three fields, namely the urban and regional development policy evaluation, urban planning and construction management, and urban environmental management and public participation. On the other hand, on analyzing the principal feedback loops in different application field, the paper makes the comparisons among and focuses on the application of feedback loops in the urban renewal policy-making, the significance of which is introduced also.
(2) Put forward the dynamic decision-making objectives in the urban renewal system based on the sustainable development theory.
The dynamic characteristics of socio-economic structure in the urban renewal system are analyzed and the entropy principle based on the sustainable development theory introduced. Based on the development objectives function of the urban renewal system, the theory and metabolic mechanism framework of urban renewal system stressing on the urban functions is set up.
(3) Bring forward the system dynamics action pattern in the urban renewal system by analyzing the systemic feedback loops and making quantity relationships among elements within the system.
From the point of systemic theory, the urban renewal system is divided into a few of sub-systems. By analyzing the interaction and influences among the sub-systems, the paper establishes the feedback loops in the economic, social and environmental sub-systems respectively. All these feedback loops lead to the strengthening or balancing effects, which form the systemic dynamics behavior pattern in the urban renewal system, and on the basis of which, the quantity relationships among various factors and elements within the system are illustrated.
(4) Construct the whole dynamic urban renewal system model with the sustainable development theory and system dynamics
With theories of complexity and economics and the former analysis of feedback loops and the quantity relationships as well, the modeling of the three sub-systems are carried on, following the five basic steps of system dynamics modeling and controlling method. All together with the respective functions for the economic, social and environmental subsystems and the functional relationships inter-subsystem, the whole system dynamic model of urban renewal system is constructed eventually.
(5) Use the system dynamics simulation software—Vensim to experiment and make optimization to the policy-making in the urban renewal.
By using the system dynamics simulation software, Vensim, and the econometrics and statistical software, Eviews, the historical statistics of the case city are analyzed and processed structurally. The system dynamics model is processed and tested by Vensim and some necessary modifications are made to analyze the simulation results and make the sensitivity tests. Furthermore, ten experiments and simulation analysis to the policy-making decision in urban renewal system are carried out.
(6) Lastly, the paper proposes the suggestion to optimize policies to renew and vitalize the old city based on the policy simulation results.
Based on number of results from the policy experiments and simulation, the paper proposes some suggestion to optimize policies to renew and vitalize the old city during the present stage of development. In conclusion, the strengths and weaknesses of the model are discussed, and further research direction is pointed out.
旧城是指城市中建成历史相对长久的区域，经过多年演变生长，形成相对稳定的社会经济结构和特定的地域风俗文化，具有丰富的可持续发展资源。旧城更新是指为了恢复旧城活力，发挥旧城应有的作用，调整原有的结构模式等目的，采取补偿物质缺损，调整人口分布等措施，以达到改善环境、振兴经济、改善生活质量的城市社会经济活动。相对城市新区开发建设而言，旧城区在建设规模速度、环境功能质量、先进技术应用、社区同步发展等可持续发展要素比较中一般处于滞后状态，旧城区经济衰退和社会环境的劣化加速也将导致日益严重的旧城社会问题。
系统动力学理论是系统科学和管理科学的重要分支，是一门认识和解决系统问题的交叉综合性学科。从系统动力学观点分析，旧城更新系统是一类高阶次、多重反馈回路、高度非线性的复杂系统，它具有反直观性、对系统内多数参数变化的不敏感性和对政策改变的顽强抵制性等特点，该系统的远期与近期、整体与局部之间利益的矛盾往往难于调和。本文结合系统动力学、城市更新和可持续发展理论，构建了基于可持续发展的旧城更新系统，设计提出了旧城更新的系统动力学因果反馈回路，进行了数量分析和数学建模，并基于旧城更新系统动力特性，运用仿真手段对旧城更新系统进行了社会经济决策仿真实验。本文的研究内容和主要成果有：
(1)基于系统动力学和可持续发展观的旧城可持续更新决策理论
综合系统动力学学科特点，研究了系统动力学在城市与区域发展政策评价、城市建设规划与管理和城市环境管理与公众参与中的应用，分析了不同应用中主要的反馈回路，对城市发展政策决策的系统动力学运用进行了比较，提出了其在旧城更新政策决策的主要反馈回路应用和借鉴。
(2)基于可持续发展的旧城更新系统动态决策框架
通过对旧城更新系统的经济社会动力结构动力特性分析，提出了基于可持续发展理论的旧城更新系统熵增原则，建立了基于可持续发展理论的旧城更新系统发展目标函数，提出了基于可持续发展的旧城更新动力系统和城市机能新陈代谢机制框架图。
(3)基于系统反馈回路的旧城更新系统动力学行为模式
基于系统论观点，将旧城更新系统划分为若干个主要的子系统，通过分析各个子系统间的相互关联和影响机制，设计建立了旧城更新经济、社会、环境子系统的反馈回路——这些导致系统内部不断加强或减弱的影响因素及其数量关系，分析演绎了旧城更新系统动力学行为模式。
(4)基于系统动力学的旧城可持续更新系统动态模型
基于复杂性经济理论，结合系统反馈回路设计与数量关系，提出了运用系统动力学原理建模与调控的五个基本步骤，分别对旧城更新经济、社会、环境子系统进行建模，讨论了各子系统变量的自身函数及其子系统之间变量的的函数关系，建立了旧城更新系统动力学模型。
(5)基于系统动力学的旧城更新仿真优化决策
运用系统动力学仿真软件Vensim和计量经济学统计软件Eviews，经过对案例旧城区历史数据进行系统调查和处理，输入模型并进行训练和修正模型，对已有政策进行了仿真拟合和敏感性分析，并对旧城更新政策决策进行了多项仿真分析和实验。
(6)基于决策仿真的旧城更新与复苏政策仿真实验
在多项政策实验和仿真基础上，提出了城市发展过程中旧城更新与复苏的政策优化与建议，在分析所建模型优点及不足的基础上，提出了有待进一步研究的问题和方向。
Old city is the region with a relatively long history that forms a stable socio-economic structure and specific geographical customs and culture after many years of evolution and growth, all of which frame abundant resources for the sustainable development. And urban renewal is the city project that aims to make the old residential housing with quality to meet modern living standards and with the potential of sustainable development as well, all by means of replacing, supplementing and improving, reconstructing and making creation to the elements of obsolescent functions and deteriorated environment in the old city. As the most common living place, the city, a special system where people have resided with different living styles and production patterns along the time-and-space axes, reflects the characteristics of different group of people. With the transformation of economic development mode and construction of resources-saving and environmentally-friendly society, the emphasis of modern urban construction in China has been transformed from the quick development of scale-based expansion model to the continually improving environmental functions model. Compared with the development and construction in new area, the old city has lagged behind in the aspects of construction scale and speed, environmental functions and quality, application of advanced technologies, community development, and so on. What's worse, there are increasingly serious social problems causing by the economic recession and deterioration of social contexts in the old city.
System dynamics theory is an important branch of systemic science and management science. It is comprehensively interdisciplinary and useful to recognize and solve systemic problems. From the perspective of system dynamics, the urban renewal system is a kind of complex and highly nonlinear system with the characteristics of high level of order and loop multiplicity. Such system is counter-intuitive, mostly not sensitive to the changes of parameters within and therefore with great resistance to the changes of policies. All these characteristics lead to the difficulty to reconcile the contradictions of system's interests from the view of long-term versus short-term and overall versus partial. This paper, drawing on the system dynamics theory together with the theory of urban renewal and sustainable development principles, firstly describes the urban renewal system based on the principle of sustainable development. Then it proposes the system dynamics causal feedback loops in the urban renewal system and analyzes the relationships within the system establishing the mathematical model. Finally, based on the system dynamics characteristics of the old city, the paper uses the Vensim software to carry on the socio-economic and policy simulation to the urban renewal system.
Guided by the three main aspects, the contents are arranged as follows:
(1) Integrate the system dynamics and sustainable development theory to research on the topic of urban renewal policy-making.
In the beginning, the paper, on one hand combining the characteristics of system dynamics, presents the application of system dynamics in three fields, namely the urban and regional development policy evaluation, urban planning and construction management, and urban environmental management and public participation. On the other hand, on analyzing the principal feedback loops in different application field, the paper makes the comparisons among and focuses on the application of feedback loops in the urban renewal policy-making, the significance of which is introduced also.
(2) Put forward the dynamic decision-making objectives in the urban renewal system based on the sustainable development theory.
The dynamic characteristics of socio-economic structure in the urban renewal system are analyzed and the entropy principle based on the sustainable development theory introduced. Based on the development objectives function of the urban renewal system, the theory and metabolic mechanism framework of urban renewal system stressing on the urban functions is set up.
(3) Bring forward the system dynamics action pattern in the urban renewal system by analyzing the systemic feedback loops and making quantity relationships among elements within the system.
From the point of systemic theory, the urban renewal system is divided into a few of sub-systems. By analyzing the interaction and influences among the sub-systems, the paper establishes the feedback loops in the economic, social and environmental sub-systems respectively. All these feedback loops lead to the strengthening or balancing effects, which form the systemic dynamics behavior pattern in the urban renewal system, and on the basis of which, the quantity relationships among various factors and elements within the system are illustrated.
(4) Construct the whole dynamic urban renewal system model with the sustainable development theory and system dynamics
With theories of complexity and economics and the former analysis of feedback loops and the quantity relationships as well, the modeling of the three sub-systems are carried on, following the five basic steps of system dynamics modeling and controlling method. All together with the respective functions for the economic, social and environmental subsystems and the functional relationships inter-subsystem, the whole system dynamic model of urban renewal system is constructed eventually.
(5) Use the system dynamics simulation software—Vensim to experiment and make optimization to the policy-making in the urban renewal.
By using the system dynamics simulation software, Vensim, and the econometrics and statistical software, Eviews, the historical statistics of the case city are analyzed and processed structurally. The system dynamics model is processed and tested by Vensim and some necessary modifications are made to analyze the simulation results and make the sensitivity tests. Furthermore, ten experiments and simulation analysis to the policy-making decision in urban renewal system are carried out.
(6) Lastly, the paper proposes the suggestion to optimize policies to renew and vitalize the old city based on the policy simulation results.
Based on number of results from the policy experiments and simulation, the paper proposes some suggestion to optimize policies to renew and vitalize the old city during the present stage of development. In conclusion, the strengths and weaknesses of the model are discussed, and further research direction is pointed out.
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