基于企业现金转换周期的我国供应链管理经济贡献研究
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摘要
在企业逐渐认识并采用供应链管理理念和相关技术的同时,供应链管理绩效的测量与评价成为供应链理论研究和管理实践的一项重要内容。进而,对供应链管理绩效与技术进步关系的研究,即对供应链管理的经济贡献研究,将为深刻分析我国经济增长的动力来源提供必要的微观基础,从而有利于为我国企业的健康发展,我国宏观经济的可持续平稳快速增长提供重要的理论指导与坚实保障。
本文在借鉴国内外关于供应链管理、供应链管理绩效评价和经济增长研究文献的基础上,提出利用企业的现金转换周期作为我国供应链管理绩效评价的基准指标,并通过利用我国上市公司数据,对我国供应链管理绩效进行全国、分地区和分行业测量,全面评价比较我国企业的供应链管理绩效水平和发展趋势;分别利用卡尔曼滤波和HP滤波估计我国的技术进步率和生产能力实现率,合成得到1990年-2008年我国的全要素生产率,应用协整检验分析全国供应链管理绩效水平变化对全要素生产率的作用与影响;利用DEA-Malmquist指数,测量1995年-2007年我国三十个省市的全要素生产率增长及其构成,应用面板数据模型计量分析各地区供应链管理绩效水平变化对全要素生产率增长及其构成的作用与影响;最后,结合我国实际,提出我国企业加强供应链管理的目标、基本原则和优化建议。
Since the 1990s, competition among enterprises became more and more fast, due to the rapid changes of the global environment and the rapid development of the market and technology. In today's globalized market, "large and comprehensive" enterprise system will collapse in the end. Enterprises can not do business on their own and business processes need the participation of a number of enterprises. The previous business process provides materials or services for the next business processes, and an interlocking chain comes into being. The sequence of enterprises or the business processes network is called a supply chain. Due to the emergence of the buyer's market, the“push”mode of management which focuses on production and product is replaced by the new“pull”mode which focuses on customer demand instead. However, to meet customer’s needs, the strength of a single enterprise is far from enough, and supply chain management came into being. As Christopher said, in the 21st century, there is no enterprise but supply chain in the market and the supply chain competition will replace the traditional form of enterprise competition.
Enterprises are faced with changes in the external environment caused by uncertainty, including changes on market factors (customer's demand on products, production, quality and delivery ) and the business objectives (new products, market expansion, etc.) , these changes have increased the complexity of enterprise’s management, so we need an innovative management model . A series changes on the external macro-economic environment, customer demand, market competition, as well as internal organizational structure, operational concepts principles make the supply chain management become the necessary tool for modern enterprise to develop.
Since 1978, China's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of 9.8%, with GDP quickly jumped from 364.5 billion yuan in 1978 to 300.67 thousand billion in 2008. With China's rapid economic growth, government, scholars, businessmen concern about the engines and the sustainability of the economic growth. The macroeconomic trend is closely related to the micro-economic individual. From the demand’s point, China's economic growth is boosted by exports, investment and consumption, of which exports and investment is related to enterprises. From the supply’s point, the source of economic growth comes from the factors of production labor and capital inputs, as well as the total factor productivity which represent the technological advances. What’s more, technological progress and the modern enterprise’s supply chain management are closely related. Therefore, from the micro perspective of the enterprise’s supply chain management, analyzing China's economic growth engine and continuity is very practical and valuable.
According to papers on supply chain management, performance evaluation of the supply chain management, and economic growth research from home and abroad, this paper use cash to cash cycle as the benchmark index to evaluate the performance of the supply chain management, then based on data of china’s listed companies, performance evaluations of supply chain management are made from the aspect of the nation, the region and the industry, respectively. Through these evaluations we will find out the level of Chinese enterprises’supply chain management and the development trends; Using Kalman filter and the HP filter, I estimated China's technological progress rate and productivity rate and by synthesizing this two rates, I get China's total factor productivity rate in 1990-2008. Then co-integration testing measure is adopted to analyze how do the level changes of the national supply chain management performance impact total factor productivity; DEA-Malmquist index method are used to measure total factor productivity growth and its components of China's 30 provinces and cities in 1995-2007, Panel Data Model is used to analyze the impact of regional supply chain management’s performance change on total factor productivity growth and its components; Finally, according to China's reality, tips for China's enterprises to strengthen supply chain management and basic principles are made.
The researching conclusions are drawn as below:
1, Cash to cash cycle model and formula are used to calculate accounts receivable, accounts payable, inventory and cash to cash cycle index. Analysis shows that the national inventory cycle, accounts receivable cycle and cash to cash cycle have a declining trend, while the accounts receivable cycle and cash to cash cycle decreased significantly since 1998; all this three index are now showing a certain degree of stable characteristics: the inventory cycle remained stable at about 70 days, accounts receivable 25 days, the cash to cash cycle 50 days. Accounts payable cycle fluctuated between 40-60 days since 1994, and it is about 50 days at present. The mean and standard deviation analysis of the regions and various sectors of the accounts receivable, accounts payable, inventory cycle and cash conversion cycle, , shows that all the indicators have both similarities and differences.
2, Beijing, Anhui and Gansu province in the east ,central and western of china have shown a similar trend in the inventory cycle, accounts receivable cycle, accounts payable cycle and cash conversion cycle: accounts receivable cycle and cash conversion cycle have a significant downward trend, payables cycle nearly remains the same as before . At present, these four indicators Show a certain degree of stability characteristics.
3, Using Manufacturing, commerce and trade circulation industry and real estate as the representatives of various industries, our analysis of China's inventory cycle, accounts receivable cycle, accounts payable cycle and cash conversion cycle characteristics showed that the former two the cash conversion cycle is stabilized at 60 days and 25 days, while the real estate on the contrary showed an upward trend, currently 1081 days, and remained to go upside.
4, China's total factor productivity in most of the period is greater than 0, its composition (technological progress and productivity improvement) shows opposite cyclical characteristics. China's investment-driven economic growth is identifiable, while the cyclical changes of the total factor productivity can reduce the economic growth volatility to a certain extent, thus it will be good for the Sustainable growth of china’s economy.
5, Improvement in the cash to cash cycle has a significant positive effect on China's total factor productivity, therefore, it come to the conclusion that raise the level of supply chain management of Chinese enterprises will help improve China's total factor productivity.
6, China's total factor showed some of the same features in different provinces and cities, such as changes of the pure technical efficience have little contribution to technological progress. While technological progress are mostly caused by the change of the scale efficiency, technological change contributed a lot to the total factor productivity growth, not less than the role of technological progress; At the same time, I also found that there are significant differences in China's total factor productivity growth in various provinces and cities, such as the fluctuation magnitude and intensity differences of the measurement index and the contrast relationship between the various measurement index.
7, Panel Data Model is used to analyze how regional cash to cash cycle affect the total factor productivity growth and its composition. Cash to cash cycle has a positive contribution to the total factor productivity growth and technological change. Period Effect Model is established to analyze its effect on the changes of the technological advances, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. The result shows that cash to cash cycle has a positive contribution to the technological advance from the time trend’s point, there is no difference between different province and its effects on pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are not significant either.
本文在借鉴国内外关于供应链管理、供应链管理绩效评价和经济增长研究文献的基础上,提出利用企业的现金转换周期作为我国供应链管理绩效评价的基准指标,并通过利用我国上市公司数据,对我国供应链管理绩效进行全国、分地区和分行业测量,全面评价比较我国企业的供应链管理绩效水平和发展趋势;分别利用卡尔曼滤波和HP滤波估计我国的技术进步率和生产能力实现率,合成得到1990年-2008年我国的全要素生产率,应用协整检验分析全国供应链管理绩效水平变化对全要素生产率的作用与影响;利用DEA-Malmquist指数,测量1995年-2007年我国三十个省市的全要素生产率增长及其构成,应用面板数据模型计量分析各地区供应链管理绩效水平变化对全要素生产率增长及其构成的作用与影响;最后,结合我国实际,提出我国企业加强供应链管理的目标、基本原则和优化建议。
Since the 1990s, competition among enterprises became more and more fast, due to the rapid changes of the global environment and the rapid development of the market and technology. In today's globalized market, "large and comprehensive" enterprise system will collapse in the end. Enterprises can not do business on their own and business processes need the participation of a number of enterprises. The previous business process provides materials or services for the next business processes, and an interlocking chain comes into being. The sequence of enterprises or the business processes network is called a supply chain. Due to the emergence of the buyer's market, the“push”mode of management which focuses on production and product is replaced by the new“pull”mode which focuses on customer demand instead. However, to meet customer’s needs, the strength of a single enterprise is far from enough, and supply chain management came into being. As Christopher said, in the 21st century, there is no enterprise but supply chain in the market and the supply chain competition will replace the traditional form of enterprise competition.
Enterprises are faced with changes in the external environment caused by uncertainty, including changes on market factors (customer's demand on products, production, quality and delivery ) and the business objectives (new products, market expansion, etc.) , these changes have increased the complexity of enterprise’s management, so we need an innovative management model . A series changes on the external macro-economic environment, customer demand, market competition, as well as internal organizational structure, operational concepts principles make the supply chain management become the necessary tool for modern enterprise to develop.
Since 1978, China's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of 9.8%, with GDP quickly jumped from 364.5 billion yuan in 1978 to 300.67 thousand billion in 2008. With China's rapid economic growth, government, scholars, businessmen concern about the engines and the sustainability of the economic growth. The macroeconomic trend is closely related to the micro-economic individual. From the demand’s point, China's economic growth is boosted by exports, investment and consumption, of which exports and investment is related to enterprises. From the supply’s point, the source of economic growth comes from the factors of production labor and capital inputs, as well as the total factor productivity which represent the technological advances. What’s more, technological progress and the modern enterprise’s supply chain management are closely related. Therefore, from the micro perspective of the enterprise’s supply chain management, analyzing China's economic growth engine and continuity is very practical and valuable.
According to papers on supply chain management, performance evaluation of the supply chain management, and economic growth research from home and abroad, this paper use cash to cash cycle as the benchmark index to evaluate the performance of the supply chain management, then based on data of china’s listed companies, performance evaluations of supply chain management are made from the aspect of the nation, the region and the industry, respectively. Through these evaluations we will find out the level of Chinese enterprises’supply chain management and the development trends; Using Kalman filter and the HP filter, I estimated China's technological progress rate and productivity rate and by synthesizing this two rates, I get China's total factor productivity rate in 1990-2008. Then co-integration testing measure is adopted to analyze how do the level changes of the national supply chain management performance impact total factor productivity; DEA-Malmquist index method are used to measure total factor productivity growth and its components of China's 30 provinces and cities in 1995-2007, Panel Data Model is used to analyze the impact of regional supply chain management’s performance change on total factor productivity growth and its components; Finally, according to China's reality, tips for China's enterprises to strengthen supply chain management and basic principles are made.
The researching conclusions are drawn as below:
1, Cash to cash cycle model and formula are used to calculate accounts receivable, accounts payable, inventory and cash to cash cycle index. Analysis shows that the national inventory cycle, accounts receivable cycle and cash to cash cycle have a declining trend, while the accounts receivable cycle and cash to cash cycle decreased significantly since 1998; all this three index are now showing a certain degree of stable characteristics: the inventory cycle remained stable at about 70 days, accounts receivable 25 days, the cash to cash cycle 50 days. Accounts payable cycle fluctuated between 40-60 days since 1994, and it is about 50 days at present. The mean and standard deviation analysis of the regions and various sectors of the accounts receivable, accounts payable, inventory cycle and cash conversion cycle, , shows that all the indicators have both similarities and differences.
2, Beijing, Anhui and Gansu province in the east ,central and western of china have shown a similar trend in the inventory cycle, accounts receivable cycle, accounts payable cycle and cash conversion cycle: accounts receivable cycle and cash conversion cycle have a significant downward trend, payables cycle nearly remains the same as before . At present, these four indicators Show a certain degree of stability characteristics.
3, Using Manufacturing, commerce and trade circulation industry and real estate as the representatives of various industries, our analysis of China's inventory cycle, accounts receivable cycle, accounts payable cycle and cash conversion cycle characteristics showed that the former two the cash conversion cycle is stabilized at 60 days and 25 days, while the real estate on the contrary showed an upward trend, currently 1081 days, and remained to go upside.
4, China's total factor productivity in most of the period is greater than 0, its composition (technological progress and productivity improvement) shows opposite cyclical characteristics. China's investment-driven economic growth is identifiable, while the cyclical changes of the total factor productivity can reduce the economic growth volatility to a certain extent, thus it will be good for the Sustainable growth of china’s economy.
5, Improvement in the cash to cash cycle has a significant positive effect on China's total factor productivity, therefore, it come to the conclusion that raise the level of supply chain management of Chinese enterprises will help improve China's total factor productivity.
6, China's total factor showed some of the same features in different provinces and cities, such as changes of the pure technical efficience have little contribution to technological progress. While technological progress are mostly caused by the change of the scale efficiency, technological change contributed a lot to the total factor productivity growth, not less than the role of technological progress; At the same time, I also found that there are significant differences in China's total factor productivity growth in various provinces and cities, such as the fluctuation magnitude and intensity differences of the measurement index and the contrast relationship between the various measurement index.
7, Panel Data Model is used to analyze how regional cash to cash cycle affect the total factor productivity growth and its composition. Cash to cash cycle has a positive contribution to the total factor productivity growth and technological change. Period Effect Model is established to analyze its effect on the changes of the technological advances, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. The result shows that cash to cash cycle has a positive contribution to the technological advance from the time trend’s point, there is no difference between different province and its effects on pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are not significant either.
引文
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②该概念局限在企业的内部操作层上,把供应链仅仅视为企业内部的一个物流过程,所涉及的主要是物料采购、库存、生产和分销等部门的职能协调问题,注重企业自身的资源利用,降低物流成本,提高经营效率,忽略了与外部供应链成员企业的联系,导致成员间的目标冲突。
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①各企业还可以根据属于其所特有的内部经营特征对第三层进行再分解,形成确定具体工作流程的第四层,以及第五层。
②SCOR模型中绩效评量包括所有供应链流程中考虑到每一个环节,将供应链所有盟员做有系统的整体绩效评量,使供应链更具有透明度及促使绩效提升。
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②该概念局限在企业的内部操作层上,把供应链仅仅视为企业内部的一个物流过程,所涉及的主要是物料采购、库存、生产和分销等部门的职能协调问题,注重企业自身的资源利用,降低物流成本,提高经营效率,忽略了与外部供应链成员企业的联系,导致成员间的目标冲突。
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