城市居民低碳化能源消费行为及政策引导研究
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摘要
城市居民是我国居民生活能源消费的主体。随着我国城市化进程的加速和居民生活水平不断提高,城市居民生活能源消费需求将越来越大。城市居民的能源消费行为能否低碳,不仅直接影响到我国居民能源消费的数量、增长速度和用能结构,也间接影响对工业品的消费价值判断和选择。当城市居民的低碳化能源消费形成较强的社会规范时,必然会对生产和流通领域的低碳发展产生积极影响,进而将从需求管理的角度促进我国节能减排目标的顺利实现。
为此,本文以城市居民的低碳化能源消费行为及政策引导为研究对象,通过对我国三大经济地带不同等级的49个城市居民的大样本问卷调查,建立了我国居民低碳化能源消费行为综合模型,并对不同区域不同等级城市的居民行为进行了空间差异分析。进而借鉴情景分析的思路,将不同类型的政策工具分别引入行为模型,研究不同政策工具对城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的情境调节效应,有针对性地提出了政策建议。
本文的具体研究内容包括三个方面:
第一,城市居民低碳化能源消费行为综合模型研究。通过文献研究、专家访谈与居民访谈,在对“低碳化能源消费行为”进行概念界定的基础上,筛选出19个影响因素。从行为意愿类因素、行为能力类因素、外部情境因素、家庭特征因素、人口统计因素共同作用的角度构建了城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的理论模型并提出假设。通过预调查和正式调查两轮检验开发出一套具有较高信度和效度的本土化测量工具。通过对全国49个城市居民开展大样本调查,运用多元统计分析和结构方程模型方法建立了我国城市居民低碳化能源消费行为综合模型。系统地解析了城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的影响机理和路径关系。证明城市居民的“低碳化能源消费行为”是“低碳行为意愿”和“低碳行为能力”共同作用的结果;社会规范、政策法规、经济成本、宣传教育、产品的技术成熟度、目标与信息反馈等外部情境结构因素对居民行为具有显著的情境调节效应,但对不同行为的调节方向和强度有显著差异;个体心理类变量除环境责任感之外,大都是通过“低碳行为意愿”和“低碳行为能力”间接作用于行为的,且对“低碳行为意愿”和“低碳行为能力”的影响方向和强度存在显著差异。居民低碳化能源消费行为还受到家庭特征和人口统计特征的显著影响。
第二,城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的空间差异研究。根据我国东、中、西三大经济地带的区域差异和一、二、三、四线城市的城市发展水平差异,对我国城市居民的低碳化能源消费行为进行地域空间的差异性分析。发现不同城市居民的低碳化能源消费在行为表现、行为意愿与行为能力、不同情境因素的影响、家庭特征和人口统计特征上存在显著差异,各有侧重。
第三,政策工具的情境调节效应与政策建议研究。将与城市居民能源消费相关的政策分为命令控制型、经济激励型和自愿参与型三种政策工具,借鉴情景分析的思路,把三类政策工具分别作为城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的外部情境,纳入行为模型,分析每一种政策工具对居民行为的调节效应,发现不同类型政策工具对城市居民低碳化能源消费行为情境调节的方向和强度存在显著差异。“自愿参与型政策工具”对行为的正向加强作用最显著;其次是经济激励型政策工具;命令控制型政策工具的整体调节效应弱于前两者且存在正向调节和负向调节两种作用。在此基础上,结合行为研究结论,借鉴国内外相关政策的经验,从能源消费管理机制的完善和命令控制型政策、经济激励型政策、自愿参与型政策的开发等四个方面提出了引导我国城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的政策建议。
Urban residents are the subject of life energy consumption. With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous improvement of residents’living standards, demand of urban residents’life energy consumption will become larger and larger. Whether or not urban residents can do low carbonization energy consumption behavior, what not only directly affects the quantity, increment speed and energy-using structure of residents energy consumption in our country, but also indirectly affects their consumption value judgment and choice on industrial products. When urban residents’low carbonization energy consumption becomes strong social norms, it will be positive impact on low carbon development in production and circulation fields, and then from the angle of demand management, it will promote the smooth realization of goal for energy conservation and emission reduction in our country.
Therefore, the research chooses low carbonization energy consumption behavior of urban residents as the research object, based on residents’large sample survey from 49 cities of different tiers in our country’s three economic regions, it establishes a comprehensive model of Chinese residents’low carbonization energy consumption behavior and makes space difference analysis of residents behavior in different regions and different tiers cities. Then using for reference of scenario analysis, we put policy instruments into behavior model and study situation adjustment effect of different policy instruments on urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior. Then we pertinently put forward policy suggestions.
Specific content includes three aspects:
Firstly, research on urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior comprehensive model. Through literature study, experts interview and residents interview, on the basis of defining“low carbonization energy consumption behavior”, we select 19 influencing factors. We construct urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior theory model from the angle of comprehensive effect about factors of behavior intention, behavior competence, external situation, family characteristic and demographic, and then put forward hypothesis. Through two tests of prediction survey and formal investigation, we develop a set of localization measuring tool with high reliability and validity. Through large sample survey of residents from 49 cities, we use methods of multivariate statistical analysis and structural equation model to establish Chinese urban residents low carbonation energy consumption behavior model, and systematically analyse the influencing mechanism and path relations of urban residents’low carbonation energy consumption behavior. We prove that "low carbonization energy consumption behavior" is the result of joint action of "low carbon behavior intention" and "low carbon behavior competence". External situation structure factors(social norms, policies and regulations, publicity and education, economic cost, product technical maturity, goal and information feedback) have situation adjustment effect on low carbonization energy consumption behavior. There were significant differences adjustment direction and strength for different behavior. Individual psychological variables have indirect effect on behavior through "low carbon behavior intention" and "low carbon behavior competence" excepet environment responsibility, and there were significant differences on influence direction and strength. Residents low energy carbonization consumption behavior is also influenced by family characteristics and t demographic variables.
Secondly, space difference research on urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior. According to regional difference of three economic regions in east, middle, west and development level differences of first, second, third and fourth tier cities, we do space difference analysis of urban residential low carbonization energy consumption behavior. We find that there are significant differences for residents in different cities on low carbonization energy consumption in behavior, behavior intention, behavior competence, external situation structure factors, family and demographic characteristics and it has different records.
Thirdly, situation adjustment effect and policy suggestions research of policy instruments. We divide policies related urban residents energy consumption into command control policy, economic incentive policy and voluntary participated policy. Drawing lessons from the thought of situation analysis, we take three kinds of policy instruments respectively as external situation of urban residents low carbonization energy consumption, and we take them into behavior model, then analyse the situation adjustment action of each kind of policy instruments for behavior. We discover that there are significant differences on situation adjustment direction and strength of different kinds of policy instruments for urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior. We find that the positive effect of“voluntary participated policy instruments”for behavior is the most significant, and next is“economic incentive policy instruments”, the whole adjustment action of“command control policy instruments”is not as the former two, and it has positive and negative adjustment. On this basis, combining with behavior research conclusion, drawing lessons from domestic and international policies, we puts forward the policy suggestions guide urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior from four aspects of energy consumption management mechanism consummation, command control policy, economic incentive policy and voluntary participated policy.
为此,本文以城市居民的低碳化能源消费行为及政策引导为研究对象,通过对我国三大经济地带不同等级的49个城市居民的大样本问卷调查,建立了我国居民低碳化能源消费行为综合模型,并对不同区域不同等级城市的居民行为进行了空间差异分析。进而借鉴情景分析的思路,将不同类型的政策工具分别引入行为模型,研究不同政策工具对城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的情境调节效应,有针对性地提出了政策建议。
本文的具体研究内容包括三个方面:
第一,城市居民低碳化能源消费行为综合模型研究。通过文献研究、专家访谈与居民访谈,在对“低碳化能源消费行为”进行概念界定的基础上,筛选出19个影响因素。从行为意愿类因素、行为能力类因素、外部情境因素、家庭特征因素、人口统计因素共同作用的角度构建了城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的理论模型并提出假设。通过预调查和正式调查两轮检验开发出一套具有较高信度和效度的本土化测量工具。通过对全国49个城市居民开展大样本调查,运用多元统计分析和结构方程模型方法建立了我国城市居民低碳化能源消费行为综合模型。系统地解析了城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的影响机理和路径关系。证明城市居民的“低碳化能源消费行为”是“低碳行为意愿”和“低碳行为能力”共同作用的结果;社会规范、政策法规、经济成本、宣传教育、产品的技术成熟度、目标与信息反馈等外部情境结构因素对居民行为具有显著的情境调节效应,但对不同行为的调节方向和强度有显著差异;个体心理类变量除环境责任感之外,大都是通过“低碳行为意愿”和“低碳行为能力”间接作用于行为的,且对“低碳行为意愿”和“低碳行为能力”的影响方向和强度存在显著差异。居民低碳化能源消费行为还受到家庭特征和人口统计特征的显著影响。
第二,城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的空间差异研究。根据我国东、中、西三大经济地带的区域差异和一、二、三、四线城市的城市发展水平差异,对我国城市居民的低碳化能源消费行为进行地域空间的差异性分析。发现不同城市居民的低碳化能源消费在行为表现、行为意愿与行为能力、不同情境因素的影响、家庭特征和人口统计特征上存在显著差异,各有侧重。
第三,政策工具的情境调节效应与政策建议研究。将与城市居民能源消费相关的政策分为命令控制型、经济激励型和自愿参与型三种政策工具,借鉴情景分析的思路,把三类政策工具分别作为城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的外部情境,纳入行为模型,分析每一种政策工具对居民行为的调节效应,发现不同类型政策工具对城市居民低碳化能源消费行为情境调节的方向和强度存在显著差异。“自愿参与型政策工具”对行为的正向加强作用最显著;其次是经济激励型政策工具;命令控制型政策工具的整体调节效应弱于前两者且存在正向调节和负向调节两种作用。在此基础上,结合行为研究结论,借鉴国内外相关政策的经验,从能源消费管理机制的完善和命令控制型政策、经济激励型政策、自愿参与型政策的开发等四个方面提出了引导我国城市居民低碳化能源消费行为的政策建议。
Urban residents are the subject of life energy consumption. With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous improvement of residents’living standards, demand of urban residents’life energy consumption will become larger and larger. Whether or not urban residents can do low carbonization energy consumption behavior, what not only directly affects the quantity, increment speed and energy-using structure of residents energy consumption in our country, but also indirectly affects their consumption value judgment and choice on industrial products. When urban residents’low carbonization energy consumption becomes strong social norms, it will be positive impact on low carbon development in production and circulation fields, and then from the angle of demand management, it will promote the smooth realization of goal for energy conservation and emission reduction in our country.
Therefore, the research chooses low carbonization energy consumption behavior of urban residents as the research object, based on residents’large sample survey from 49 cities of different tiers in our country’s three economic regions, it establishes a comprehensive model of Chinese residents’low carbonization energy consumption behavior and makes space difference analysis of residents behavior in different regions and different tiers cities. Then using for reference of scenario analysis, we put policy instruments into behavior model and study situation adjustment effect of different policy instruments on urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior. Then we pertinently put forward policy suggestions.
Specific content includes three aspects:
Firstly, research on urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior comprehensive model. Through literature study, experts interview and residents interview, on the basis of defining“low carbonization energy consumption behavior”, we select 19 influencing factors. We construct urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior theory model from the angle of comprehensive effect about factors of behavior intention, behavior competence, external situation, family characteristic and demographic, and then put forward hypothesis. Through two tests of prediction survey and formal investigation, we develop a set of localization measuring tool with high reliability and validity. Through large sample survey of residents from 49 cities, we use methods of multivariate statistical analysis and structural equation model to establish Chinese urban residents low carbonation energy consumption behavior model, and systematically analyse the influencing mechanism and path relations of urban residents’low carbonation energy consumption behavior. We prove that "low carbonization energy consumption behavior" is the result of joint action of "low carbon behavior intention" and "low carbon behavior competence". External situation structure factors(social norms, policies and regulations, publicity and education, economic cost, product technical maturity, goal and information feedback) have situation adjustment effect on low carbonization energy consumption behavior. There were significant differences adjustment direction and strength for different behavior. Individual psychological variables have indirect effect on behavior through "low carbon behavior intention" and "low carbon behavior competence" excepet environment responsibility, and there were significant differences on influence direction and strength. Residents low energy carbonization consumption behavior is also influenced by family characteristics and t demographic variables.
Secondly, space difference research on urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior. According to regional difference of three economic regions in east, middle, west and development level differences of first, second, third and fourth tier cities, we do space difference analysis of urban residential low carbonization energy consumption behavior. We find that there are significant differences for residents in different cities on low carbonization energy consumption in behavior, behavior intention, behavior competence, external situation structure factors, family and demographic characteristics and it has different records.
Thirdly, situation adjustment effect and policy suggestions research of policy instruments. We divide policies related urban residents energy consumption into command control policy, economic incentive policy and voluntary participated policy. Drawing lessons from the thought of situation analysis, we take three kinds of policy instruments respectively as external situation of urban residents low carbonization energy consumption, and we take them into behavior model, then analyse the situation adjustment action of each kind of policy instruments for behavior. We discover that there are significant differences on situation adjustment direction and strength of different kinds of policy instruments for urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior. We find that the positive effect of“voluntary participated policy instruments”for behavior is the most significant, and next is“economic incentive policy instruments”, the whole adjustment action of“command control policy instruments”is not as the former two, and it has positive and negative adjustment. On this basis, combining with behavior research conclusion, drawing lessons from domestic and international policies, we puts forward the policy suggestions guide urban residents low carbonization energy consumption behavior from four aspects of energy consumption management mechanism consummation, command control policy, economic incentive policy and voluntary participated policy.
引文
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