山东省沿海渔港布局研究
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摘要
渔港是农业基础设施的重要组成部分,发挥着保障渔区群众生命财产安全,推动渔业产业结构调整,促进渔区经济繁荣,帮助渔民增收的重要作用。建设渔港,首先要做好渔港的布局工作,以避免渔港建设上的盲目性,促进渔业的有序发展。目前山东省沿海渔港的布局缺乏整体规划,随意建设现象比较突出,影响了渔业的可持续发展,急需对渔港的布局进行完善。
本文在分析山东省沿海渔港布局现状的基础上,依据“十二五”末海水产品产量的预测结果,运用“点—轴”空间结构系统理论,构造了沿海渔港的梯级布局体系,提出了到“十二五”末的渔港布局方案。
1.阐述了山东省发展渔业的优势,回顾了渔港的发展历程,分析了沿海渔港的布局现状,总结了渔港布局存在的问题。
2.分别建立了山东省海水产品产量的灰色预测模型和皮尔曲线预测模型;提出了误差熵值变权组合预测方法,运用此方法,基于灰色模型和皮尔曲线模型建立了产量的组合预测模型,模型精度较高。预测结果表明“十二五”期间海水产品产量将稳步增长,期末可达到645万吨。
3.应用层次分析法确定了渔业县(市、区)评价指标的权重,通过模糊综合评价确定了大型、中型、小型和重点渔业县(市、区)。采取在重点渔业县(市、区)布局中心渔港、中型以上渔业县(市、区)布局一级以上渔港的原则,运用“点—轴”空间结构系统理论,构造了沿海渔港的梯级布局体系。
“十二五”末山东省沿海一级以上渔港可为45%的海洋渔船提供服务,满足40.3%的海水产品就近卸港需要,平均71千米左右的海岸线上有一个一级以上渔港,将形成沿海8大渔港经济区。本文的研究成果可作为山东省相关部门制定渔港布局规划的参考。
Fishing ports are an important part of the agricultural infrastructure. They play a significant role in protecting the lives and property of fishermen, pushing forward the structural readjustment of the fishing industry, promoting the economic prosperity of fishing areas and helping fishermen increase incomes. The first thing before building fishing ports is the work of fishing ports distribution in order to avoid unthinking action and promoting the orderly development of fisheries. At present, the overall distribution of coastal fishing ports of Shandong Province is not planned. The phenomenon of random construction is comparatively prominent, which has affected the sustainable development of fisheries. The distribution needs to be optimized badly.
Based on the status quo of coastal fishing ports distribution of Shandong Province, according to the forecasting output of the aquatic product at the end of“12th 5-year plan”and applying the“point-axis”space structure theory, it is built that the cascade distribution system of coastal fishing ports of Shandong Province and it is proposed that the fishing port distribution plan at the end of“12th 5-year plan”.
1. In this thesis, it is formulated that the superiorities of developing the fishery and the development process of fishing ports in Shandong Province. The status quo of fishing ports distribution is analysed. The problems of distribution are summed up.
2. The forecasting model of the seawater aquatic product output is established separately based on GM(1,1) and Pierre curve model. It is proposed that the variable weight combination forecasting based on single-point error entropy. Through using this proposed method, it is established that the combination forecasting model of the output. The model accuracy is good. The forecasting results show that the output will be growing steadily during the period of“12th 5-year plan”. The output will reach 6.45 million tons.
3. Weights of evaluation indexes of fishery counties are determined by the use of AHP. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to determine the large, medium, small fishery counties and the key fishery counties. Through applying the distribution principle of center fishing ports and first-grade fishing ports proposed in this thesis and the“point-axis”space structure theory, the cascade distribution system of coastal fishing ports is founded.
The center and first-grade fishing ports can service 45% of marine fishing vessels and meet the unloading need of 40.3% of seawater aquatic products at the end of“12~(th) 5-year plan”. There is a fishing port above the first grade per 71 kilometers coastline on average. By then, the coastal fishing port economic zones will be formed. The study achievements of this thesis can be treated as the reference to establish the fishing port distribution plan for the relevant departments of Shandong Province.
本文在分析山东省沿海渔港布局现状的基础上,依据“十二五”末海水产品产量的预测结果,运用“点—轴”空间结构系统理论,构造了沿海渔港的梯级布局体系,提出了到“十二五”末的渔港布局方案。
1.阐述了山东省发展渔业的优势,回顾了渔港的发展历程,分析了沿海渔港的布局现状,总结了渔港布局存在的问题。
2.分别建立了山东省海水产品产量的灰色预测模型和皮尔曲线预测模型;提出了误差熵值变权组合预测方法,运用此方法,基于灰色模型和皮尔曲线模型建立了产量的组合预测模型,模型精度较高。预测结果表明“十二五”期间海水产品产量将稳步增长,期末可达到645万吨。
3.应用层次分析法确定了渔业县(市、区)评价指标的权重,通过模糊综合评价确定了大型、中型、小型和重点渔业县(市、区)。采取在重点渔业县(市、区)布局中心渔港、中型以上渔业县(市、区)布局一级以上渔港的原则,运用“点—轴”空间结构系统理论,构造了沿海渔港的梯级布局体系。
“十二五”末山东省沿海一级以上渔港可为45%的海洋渔船提供服务,满足40.3%的海水产品就近卸港需要,平均71千米左右的海岸线上有一个一级以上渔港,将形成沿海8大渔港经济区。本文的研究成果可作为山东省相关部门制定渔港布局规划的参考。
Fishing ports are an important part of the agricultural infrastructure. They play a significant role in protecting the lives and property of fishermen, pushing forward the structural readjustment of the fishing industry, promoting the economic prosperity of fishing areas and helping fishermen increase incomes. The first thing before building fishing ports is the work of fishing ports distribution in order to avoid unthinking action and promoting the orderly development of fisheries. At present, the overall distribution of coastal fishing ports of Shandong Province is not planned. The phenomenon of random construction is comparatively prominent, which has affected the sustainable development of fisheries. The distribution needs to be optimized badly.
Based on the status quo of coastal fishing ports distribution of Shandong Province, according to the forecasting output of the aquatic product at the end of“12th 5-year plan”and applying the“point-axis”space structure theory, it is built that the cascade distribution system of coastal fishing ports of Shandong Province and it is proposed that the fishing port distribution plan at the end of“12th 5-year plan”.
1. In this thesis, it is formulated that the superiorities of developing the fishery and the development process of fishing ports in Shandong Province. The status quo of fishing ports distribution is analysed. The problems of distribution are summed up.
2. The forecasting model of the seawater aquatic product output is established separately based on GM(1,1) and Pierre curve model. It is proposed that the variable weight combination forecasting based on single-point error entropy. Through using this proposed method, it is established that the combination forecasting model of the output. The model accuracy is good. The forecasting results show that the output will be growing steadily during the period of“12th 5-year plan”. The output will reach 6.45 million tons.
3. Weights of evaluation indexes of fishery counties are determined by the use of AHP. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to determine the large, medium, small fishery counties and the key fishery counties. Through applying the distribution principle of center fishing ports and first-grade fishing ports proposed in this thesis and the“point-axis”space structure theory, the cascade distribution system of coastal fishing ports is founded.
The center and first-grade fishing ports can service 45% of marine fishing vessels and meet the unloading need of 40.3% of seawater aquatic products at the end of“12~(th) 5-year plan”. There is a fishing port above the first grade per 71 kilometers coastline on average. By then, the coastal fishing port economic zones will be formed. The study achievements of this thesis can be treated as the reference to establish the fishing port distribution plan for the relevant departments of Shandong Province.
引文
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[3]杨卫,平瑛.基于BP模型的中国水产品出口规模预测研究.中国渔业经济, 2005, (4): 25-29
[4]杨惠文,张永欣.大连市水产品物流需求预测.海洋信息, 2006, (4): 15-17
[5]龙广宇.三亚市主要农产品产量的灰色预测.热带农业科学, 1996, (3): 34-37
[6]桂劲松,程振雷,康海贵.我国地方渔港布局规划方法研究.大连理工大学学报, 2005, 45(3): 390-394
[7]李权昆,陈万灵,徐质斌.渔港布局及沿海渔港经济圈的构想.资源开发与市场, 2005, 21(4), 333-335
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[9]桂劲松.渔港规划设计与评估方法研究: [博士学位论文].大连:大连理工大学, 2005
[10]全国渔港建设总体规划(2003-2010).中华人民共和国农业部, 2005
[11]山东统计年鉴—2008.北京:中国统计出版社, 2008
[12]邓聚龙.灰理论基础.武汉:华中科技大学出版社, 2002
[13]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程.武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1990
[14]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社, 2004
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[16]袁嘉祖.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社, 1991
[17]傅立.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学技术文献出版社, 1992
[18]徐国祥.统计预测和决策.上海,上海财经大学出版社, 2005
[19]张保法.经济预测与经济决策.北京:经济科学出版社, 2004
[20]张桂喜.经济预测、决策与对策.北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社, 2003
[21]冯文权.经济预测与决策技术.武汉:武汉大学出版社, 2002
[22]徐建中,郑长娟.经济预测.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学出版社, 2002
[23]易丹辉.统计预测—方法与应用.北京:中国统计出版社, 2001
[24]盛骤.概率论与数理统计.北京:高等教育出版社, 2001
[25] Bates J M, Granger C W J. The combination of forecasts. Operational Research Quarterly,1969, 20(4): 451-468
[26] Burn D W. Forecasting with more than one model. Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 8(3): 161-166
[27] Granger C W J. Combining forecasts——twenty years later. Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 8(3): 167-173
[28] Holden K, Peel D A. Unbiasedness, efficiency and the combination of economic forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 8(3):175-188
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