显式表征次表层上卷海温的ENSO模拟/预测研究
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摘要
针对目前大多数OGCM及基于此建立的耦合模式(包括HCMs和CGCMs)在ENSO模拟方面普遍存在的问题，本文以中国科学院大气物理研究所的热带太平洋模式(IAP-TPOGCM)为平台，借鉴IOM中一些处理方法，以次表层上卷海温(T′_e)为聚焦点，采用一种显式表征T′_e的参数化方法，改进了OGCM及相应耦合模式中ENSO模拟；进一步，我们验证了这种方法改进ENSO预测的可能性。此外，考虑到观测中七十年代末ENSO特征发生了一次年代际转折，文中也讨论了T′_e在年代际尺度上对ENSO的可能影响。具体地，论文主要结果如下：
1．论文借鉴IOM的方法，在OGCM中实现了一个显式表征T′_e的经验性参数化方法。这种参数化方案通过经验方法将次表层上卷海温(T′_e)与海表起伏联系起来，从而可以方便地使用海表起伏显式地表示T′_e，进而改进OGCM中垂直过程的描述能力，达到增强温跃层起伏对海表混合层反馈作用的目的。
2．使用T′_e参数化方案改进OGCM及相应耦合模式中ENSO模拟。与大多数OGCM及耦合模式相似，IAP-TPOGCM及相应耦合模式模拟的SSTA变率在远东太平洋地区明显过低；耦合模式模拟的ENSO振荡频率过高，呈准两年周期。相反，采用这种参数化方案后，OGCM中SSTA模拟水平显著提高；耦合模式中振荡主周期与观测相近，为四年左右，SSTA变率空间分布也与观测较为一致。同时，分析还表明，当前比较流行的四种ENSO理论所揭示的一些规律在改进的耦合模式中都有不同程度的体现，这说明在实际的ENSO循环过程中可能多种机制在同时起作用。
3．验证了T′_e参数化方案改进ENSO预测的可能性，并为日后ENSO实时预测提供了一个新的平台。基于普通的及改进的两种混合型耦合模式，文章使用一个海洋同化系统(OVALS)提供初值，开展ENSO回顾预测试验。结果表明，普通耦合模式预报时效仅与持续性预报相当，大约5-6个月；与其ENSO模拟偏差一致，其有价值预报区仅集中在沿赤道一很窄的带状区域内；而且随着预报时间的延长，预报技巧在远东太平洋地区急剧下降。相反，采用T′_e参数化方案后，模式预报水平在整个提前预报时段上都有所提高，距平相关系数提高了0.1-0.2，预报时效延长到9个月；并且远东太平洋地区的预报偏差显著降低。
4．讨论了次表层上卷海温(T′_e)在年代际尺度上对ENSO的可能影响及机制。文章基于一个混合型耦合模式开展了多组敏感性试验。结果表明，通过调节耦合系统中纬向平流反馈效应和温跃层反馈效应的相对强弱，次表层上卷海温(T′_e)结构的变化能够显著改变耦合系统中ENSO特征，出现与观测相一致的ENSO年代际变化特征。进一步的试验还表明T′_e结构的变化对ENSO年代际变化具有重要作用，而海洋背景场变化的影响在我们的模式中却不明显。
论文的主要创新点包括：
1．本研究借鉴了IOM中的方法，在OGCM中实现了一个显式表征T′_e的经验性参数化方法，改善了模式中垂直过程的描述能力，进而改进了海洋模式及耦合模式中的ENSO模拟。这种方案对其他海洋模式也有借鉴意义。
2．开展ENSO回顾预测试验，验证了这种T′_e参数化方案改进ENSO预测的可能性，同时为日后ENSO实时预测提供了一个新的平台。这为改进ENSO预测提供了一种可选方案，对其他ENSO预测系统具有重要的启发性意义。
3．研究了次表层上卷海温(T′_e)在年代际尺度上对ENSO的影响及其机制，为ENSO年代际变化成因提供了一种解释。
There are some common bias in the current OGCMs and OGCM-based coupledmodels (HCMs and CGCMs), e.g., the underestimated SST variability in the easternequatorial Pacific and along the coast of South America, and too weak and too highfrequent ENSO variability in coupled models, and so on. In view of these problemsin the current OGCMs, a scheme is put forward to improve their ENSO simulations,which is focused on the subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e). In particular,following the intermediate ocean models (IOMs), a separate SSTA submodel, inwhich T'_e is parameterized by an empirical nordocal scheme, is embedded intoOGCMs. By this way, ENSO simulations are improved notably in a tropical PacificOGCM (IAP-TPOGCM) and a coupled model based on it. What' more important,ENSO predictions are also improved by this way. In addition, we also examined therole of T'_e in ENSO on deeadal scale. In detail, the main results are given asfollows:
1. Following IOMs, a T'_e parameterization scheme is applied in an OGCM. Inthis parameterization scheme, an empirical relationship is developed between T'_eand sea level variability, so that T'_e can be parameterized by SL anomlies explicitly.By this scheme, the vertical process can be described in OGCMs better, and weakenthe common bias in the current OGCMs, i.e., too week feedback of the thermoclinevariability on surface mixed layer.
2. Improved ENSO simulation in an OGCM and OGCM-based coupled modelby parameterizing the subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e). Similar to manycurrent OGCMs and OGCM-based coupled models, IAP-TPOGCM shows manybiases, e.g., too low SST variability in the far eastern Pacific and too high frequentENSO oscillation in the coupled model (quasi—biennial oscillation). In contrast,when the subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e) parameterization scheme isapplied, SSTA simulations are improved notably on the uncoupled basis.Furthermore, ENSO simulations in coupled model are also improved notably, e.g., realistic frequency, realistic SST anomalies pattern and so on. Further analysis showsthat the simulated ENSO in the improved coupled model is consistent with the fourfashionable ENSO theories from different aspects, which suggests that manymechanisms can operate simultaneously in ENSO cycle.
3. Checked the possibility of improving ENSO predictions by parameterizingthe subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e), and developed a new tool for ENSOforecast. Long-term hindcast experiments are explored by the standard and improvedcoupled models, in which ocean components are all initialized by an ocean dataassimilation system (OVALS). It is shown that the skillful period in standard coupledmodel is only 5-6 months equivalent with persistence forecast; and consistent withthe bias in ENSO simulations, the skillful area is confined in a narrow band alongthe equator, and the skill is depressed sharply along the far eastern Pacific oceanwith the leading times extended. In contrast, the prediction skill is improved notablydue to the empirical T'_e parameterization, anomaly correlation in which is enhancedby 0.1-0.2 compared to the standard one, and the skillful period has been prolongedto 9 months; furthermore, the large prediction errors in the far eastern Pacific oceanare also put down.
4. Examined the role of T'_e in ENSO Decadal Changes and its possiblemechanism. Several sensitive experiments are explored by a HCM. It is shown thatby modifying the relative strength of the zonal advective feedback and thethermocline feedback in the coupled system, the changes in the structure of T'_e canmodulate the ENSO properties (i.e., the oscillation period and propagationcharacteristic of SSTAs along the equator), which are consistent with the behaviorshift of ENSO observed in the late 1970s. Further experiments show that the T'_echanges have dominant role in the ENSO decadal changes as observed in the late1970s, while the effect of oceanic background changes is not clear in our models.
The main innovative points are summarized as follows:
1. Following IOMs, a T'_e parameterization scheme is applied in an OGCM.By this scheme, the vertical process can be described in OGCMs better, and ENSO simulations are improved on uncoupled- and coupled- basis. This scheme issuggestive for other OGCMs.
2. By conducting long-term ENSO hindcast experiments, we examined theidea that ENSO predictions may be improved by the T'_e parameterization scheme.Furthermore, a new tool for ENSO forecast has been developed. This result suggeststhat this scheme may be a choice for improving ENSO predictions and it may besuggestive for other operational forecast systems.
3. Examined the role of T'_e in ENSO Decadal Changes and its possiblemechanism and put forward a new explanation for it.
1．论文借鉴IOM的方法，在OGCM中实现了一个显式表征T′_e的经验性参数化方法。这种参数化方案通过经验方法将次表层上卷海温(T′_e)与海表起伏联系起来，从而可以方便地使用海表起伏显式地表示T′_e，进而改进OGCM中垂直过程的描述能力，达到增强温跃层起伏对海表混合层反馈作用的目的。
2．使用T′_e参数化方案改进OGCM及相应耦合模式中ENSO模拟。与大多数OGCM及耦合模式相似，IAP-TPOGCM及相应耦合模式模拟的SSTA变率在远东太平洋地区明显过低；耦合模式模拟的ENSO振荡频率过高，呈准两年周期。相反，采用这种参数化方案后，OGCM中SSTA模拟水平显著提高；耦合模式中振荡主周期与观测相近，为四年左右，SSTA变率空间分布也与观测较为一致。同时，分析还表明，当前比较流行的四种ENSO理论所揭示的一些规律在改进的耦合模式中都有不同程度的体现，这说明在实际的ENSO循环过程中可能多种机制在同时起作用。
3．验证了T′_e参数化方案改进ENSO预测的可能性，并为日后ENSO实时预测提供了一个新的平台。基于普通的及改进的两种混合型耦合模式，文章使用一个海洋同化系统(OVALS)提供初值，开展ENSO回顾预测试验。结果表明，普通耦合模式预报时效仅与持续性预报相当，大约5-6个月；与其ENSO模拟偏差一致，其有价值预报区仅集中在沿赤道一很窄的带状区域内；而且随着预报时间的延长，预报技巧在远东太平洋地区急剧下降。相反，采用T′_e参数化方案后，模式预报水平在整个提前预报时段上都有所提高，距平相关系数提高了0.1-0.2，预报时效延长到9个月；并且远东太平洋地区的预报偏差显著降低。
4．讨论了次表层上卷海温(T′_e)在年代际尺度上对ENSO的可能影响及机制。文章基于一个混合型耦合模式开展了多组敏感性试验。结果表明，通过调节耦合系统中纬向平流反馈效应和温跃层反馈效应的相对强弱，次表层上卷海温(T′_e)结构的变化能够显著改变耦合系统中ENSO特征，出现与观测相一致的ENSO年代际变化特征。进一步的试验还表明T′_e结构的变化对ENSO年代际变化具有重要作用，而海洋背景场变化的影响在我们的模式中却不明显。
论文的主要创新点包括：
1．本研究借鉴了IOM中的方法，在OGCM中实现了一个显式表征T′_e的经验性参数化方法，改善了模式中垂直过程的描述能力，进而改进了海洋模式及耦合模式中的ENSO模拟。这种方案对其他海洋模式也有借鉴意义。
2．开展ENSO回顾预测试验，验证了这种T′_e参数化方案改进ENSO预测的可能性，同时为日后ENSO实时预测提供了一个新的平台。这为改进ENSO预测提供了一种可选方案，对其他ENSO预测系统具有重要的启发性意义。
3．研究了次表层上卷海温(T′_e)在年代际尺度上对ENSO的影响及其机制，为ENSO年代际变化成因提供了一种解释。
There are some common bias in the current OGCMs and OGCM-based coupledmodels (HCMs and CGCMs), e.g., the underestimated SST variability in the easternequatorial Pacific and along the coast of South America, and too weak and too highfrequent ENSO variability in coupled models, and so on. In view of these problemsin the current OGCMs, a scheme is put forward to improve their ENSO simulations,which is focused on the subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e). In particular,following the intermediate ocean models (IOMs), a separate SSTA submodel, inwhich T'_e is parameterized by an empirical nordocal scheme, is embedded intoOGCMs. By this way, ENSO simulations are improved notably in a tropical PacificOGCM (IAP-TPOGCM) and a coupled model based on it. What' more important,ENSO predictions are also improved by this way. In addition, we also examined therole of T'_e in ENSO on deeadal scale. In detail, the main results are given asfollows:
1. Following IOMs, a T'_e parameterization scheme is applied in an OGCM. Inthis parameterization scheme, an empirical relationship is developed between T'_eand sea level variability, so that T'_e can be parameterized by SL anomlies explicitly.By this scheme, the vertical process can be described in OGCMs better, and weakenthe common bias in the current OGCMs, i.e., too week feedback of the thermoclinevariability on surface mixed layer.
2. Improved ENSO simulation in an OGCM and OGCM-based coupled modelby parameterizing the subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e). Similar to manycurrent OGCMs and OGCM-based coupled models, IAP-TPOGCM shows manybiases, e.g., too low SST variability in the far eastern Pacific and too high frequentENSO oscillation in the coupled model (quasi—biennial oscillation). In contrast,when the subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e) parameterization scheme isapplied, SSTA simulations are improved notably on the uncoupled basis.Furthermore, ENSO simulations in coupled model are also improved notably, e.g., realistic frequency, realistic SST anomalies pattern and so on. Further analysis showsthat the simulated ENSO in the improved coupled model is consistent with the fourfashionable ENSO theories from different aspects, which suggests that manymechanisms can operate simultaneously in ENSO cycle.
3. Checked the possibility of improving ENSO predictions by parameterizingthe subsurface entrainment temperature (T'_e), and developed a new tool for ENSOforecast. Long-term hindcast experiments are explored by the standard and improvedcoupled models, in which ocean components are all initialized by an ocean dataassimilation system (OVALS). It is shown that the skillful period in standard coupledmodel is only 5-6 months equivalent with persistence forecast; and consistent withthe bias in ENSO simulations, the skillful area is confined in a narrow band alongthe equator, and the skill is depressed sharply along the far eastern Pacific oceanwith the leading times extended. In contrast, the prediction skill is improved notablydue to the empirical T'_e parameterization, anomaly correlation in which is enhancedby 0.1-0.2 compared to the standard one, and the skillful period has been prolongedto 9 months; furthermore, the large prediction errors in the far eastern Pacific oceanare also put down.
4. Examined the role of T'_e in ENSO Decadal Changes and its possiblemechanism. Several sensitive experiments are explored by a HCM. It is shown thatby modifying the relative strength of the zonal advective feedback and thethermocline feedback in the coupled system, the changes in the structure of T'_e canmodulate the ENSO properties (i.e., the oscillation period and propagationcharacteristic of SSTAs along the equator), which are consistent with the behaviorshift of ENSO observed in the late 1970s. Further experiments show that the T'_echanges have dominant role in the ENSO decadal changes as observed in the late1970s, while the effect of oceanic background changes is not clear in our models.
The main innovative points are summarized as follows:
1. Following IOMs, a T'_e parameterization scheme is applied in an OGCM.By this scheme, the vertical process can be described in OGCMs better, and ENSO simulations are improved on uncoupled- and coupled- basis. This scheme issuggestive for other OGCMs.
2. By conducting long-term ENSO hindcast experiments, we examined theidea that ENSO predictions may be improved by the T'_e parameterization scheme.Furthermore, a new tool for ENSO forecast has been developed. This result suggeststhat this scheme may be a choice for improving ENSO predictions and it may besuggestive for other operational forecast systems.
3. Examined the role of T'_e in ENSO Decadal Changes and its possiblemechanism and put forward a new explanation for it.
引文
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