在役输气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测技术研究
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摘要
本文首先介绍了国内外管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测研究的成果和研究发展现状。通过对在役输气管道腐蚀因素的分析，总结出了长输管线腐蚀剩余寿命预测的特点。对现有的一些腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法进行分析比较，并进行了分类总结。
其次，根据管线失效的特点将腐蚀缺陷分为均匀腐蚀、局部腐蚀和点腐蚀三大类，建立了各腐蚀缺陷的几何形态模型。
然后，根据腐蚀影响因素的极大不确定性及缺陷的发生和发展的不确定性(特别是对点蚀)，从概率统计的角度出发对整条管线或整个管段的剩余寿命进行统计分析，找出其统计规律。
接着，以电化学理论为基础，对管线的土壤电化学腐蚀速率进行了讨论，建立了不同腐蚀类型的腐蚀速率电化学模型。通过对管道进行剩余强度评价，从三个方向对缺陷尺寸(即缺陷深度、轴向尺寸和环向尺寸)进行了校核，确定了缺陷的极限腐蚀尺寸。在腐蚀速率电化学模型和剩余强度评价的基础上，采用一定的预测步骤确定了不同腐蚀类型缺陷的剩余寿命。这种基于腐蚀速率的预测方法是本文研究的重点内容。
最后，考虑到金属的老化效应和管道表面的腐蚀损伤会导致管材脆变，从而改变材料的塑性，使机械性能参数发生衰退，故本文从累积损伤和管材性能衰减角度对管道剩余寿命进行了研究。分别建立了腐蚀管道剩余寿命的强度储备比模型和性能衰减模型。
Firstly, research achievement and state of corrosion residual life prediction for the pipeline at home and abroad were introduced. The characteristics of corrosion residual life prediction for long-distance transport pipeline were summarized. The existing methods of corrosion residual life prediction were analyzed and compared, then were classified.
Secondly, corrosion defects were classified as three types: general corrosion, local corrosion and pitting corrosion. And the geometric shapes of all corrosion defects were modeled.
Then, the statistical analysis for the residual life of the whole pipeline and pipe section was done from the direction of probability statistics, the statistic rule of which was found.
Following the above, rates of electrochemical corrosion of soil to pipeline were discussed on the basis of electro chemical theory. The different electrochemical models of corrosion rates were done aiming at different corrosion types. Through residual strength evaluation was made for pipeline, defect dimension, namely defect depth, axial size and loop size, was checked in three directions. Limit corrosion dimensions were determined. The residual lives of corrosion defects of different types were got basing on the electrochemical models of the corrosion rates and residual strength evaluation. This paper put the emphasis of the prediction method basing on corrosion rate.
Finally, the embrittlement of materials will be induced by aging effect of metal and corrosion damage, which will change the plasticity of materials and make mechanical capability decline. So the paper studied on the residual life of pipeline from the direction of accumulated damage and capability attenuation, and the model of strength reserve ratio and the model of capability attenuation were respectively done.
其次，根据管线失效的特点将腐蚀缺陷分为均匀腐蚀、局部腐蚀和点腐蚀三大类，建立了各腐蚀缺陷的几何形态模型。
然后，根据腐蚀影响因素的极大不确定性及缺陷的发生和发展的不确定性(特别是对点蚀)，从概率统计的角度出发对整条管线或整个管段的剩余寿命进行统计分析，找出其统计规律。
接着，以电化学理论为基础，对管线的土壤电化学腐蚀速率进行了讨论，建立了不同腐蚀类型的腐蚀速率电化学模型。通过对管道进行剩余强度评价，从三个方向对缺陷尺寸(即缺陷深度、轴向尺寸和环向尺寸)进行了校核，确定了缺陷的极限腐蚀尺寸。在腐蚀速率电化学模型和剩余强度评价的基础上，采用一定的预测步骤确定了不同腐蚀类型缺陷的剩余寿命。这种基于腐蚀速率的预测方法是本文研究的重点内容。
最后，考虑到金属的老化效应和管道表面的腐蚀损伤会导致管材脆变，从而改变材料的塑性，使机械性能参数发生衰退，故本文从累积损伤和管材性能衰减角度对管道剩余寿命进行了研究。分别建立了腐蚀管道剩余寿命的强度储备比模型和性能衰减模型。
Firstly, research achievement and state of corrosion residual life prediction for the pipeline at home and abroad were introduced. The characteristics of corrosion residual life prediction for long-distance transport pipeline were summarized. The existing methods of corrosion residual life prediction were analyzed and compared, then were classified.
Secondly, corrosion defects were classified as three types: general corrosion, local corrosion and pitting corrosion. And the geometric shapes of all corrosion defects were modeled.
Then, the statistical analysis for the residual life of the whole pipeline and pipe section was done from the direction of probability statistics, the statistic rule of which was found.
Following the above, rates of electrochemical corrosion of soil to pipeline were discussed on the basis of electro chemical theory. The different electrochemical models of corrosion rates were done aiming at different corrosion types. Through residual strength evaluation was made for pipeline, defect dimension, namely defect depth, axial size and loop size, was checked in three directions. Limit corrosion dimensions were determined. The residual lives of corrosion defects of different types were got basing on the electrochemical models of the corrosion rates and residual strength evaluation. This paper put the emphasis of the prediction method basing on corrosion rate.
Finally, the embrittlement of materials will be induced by aging effect of metal and corrosion damage, which will change the plasticity of materials and make mechanical capability decline. So the paper studied on the residual life of pipeline from the direction of accumulated damage and capability attenuation, and the model of strength reserve ratio and the model of capability attenuation were respectively done.
引文
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