济阳坳陷第三系储层预测模式优化集成研究
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摘要
济阳坳陷位于渤海湾盆地,广泛发育第三纪含油层系,油气藏类型多样。经过40多年的勘探开发济阳坳陷已经处于勘探中后期,目前新增储量80%以上来自隐蔽油气藏,油气勘探很大程度上依赖于地震资料为主的油气藏精细预测、描述和评价技术方法。但是,现有地震预测技术主要基于具体的目标展开,缺少预测技术的系统优化与集成研究,难以推广应用。而且,随着勘探程度的不断提高,面对的目标更加复杂隐蔽,原有储层地震预测技术已经满足不了实际的需要。因此,储层地震预测技术迫切需要进一步深化,本课题试图通过储层预测技术的优化集成等研究,有效地减少储层预测的盲目性,降低勘探开发风险,提高预测精度和钻探成功率。本文取得以下成果：
(1)系统地总结了济阳坳陷第三系主要储层沉积学特征,建立了典型储层规范沉积模式及标准样式,明确它们的展布规律及影响因素,进一步认识了沉积环境条件对沉积的控制作用,建立了沉积相(亚相)与储层岩性物性的基本关系。
(2)根据储层条件和地震预测技术适应性研究结果,从岩相、岩性、物性和流体预测中不同精度要求出发,建立了不同预测技术的最佳组合,形成储层岩相、岩性、物性和流体预测技术。主要成果有：形成了“三相、古地形、四分析”岩相描述,岩相、属性“双约束”岩性识别,“多井拟合、联合反演”物性估算,叠前叠后地震属性“组合差异”流体预测等技术方法。
(3)在储层地震预测有效性评价方面,通过地震预测评价技术的可行性研究,明确了储层地震预测对地质体尺度、岩石物性参数和地震资料品质等方面的要求。通过地震预测评价模型、评价体系和评价指标的研究,建立了储层地震预测评价体系；创新地发展了应用风险概率、人工神经网络和专家系统等方法进行储层预测有效性评价,通过储层尺度大小、岩石物理特征、岩性组合和资料品质的评价指标集参数及其权值,实现储层地震预测有效性进行定量评价。
(4)在典型储层地震预测模式和集成方面,对地震预测技术进行优化,集成河道砂体、浊积砂体、滩坝砂体和砂砾岩体等4类典型砂体地震预测技术,建立了8种储层预测模式：“低砂泥比”河道砂体精细描述模式,“高砂泥比”河流相储层预测模式,近岸水下扇体储层预测模式,盆底扇储层预测模式,滑塌浊积砂体精细描述模式,多物源浊积砂体储层预测模式和薄互层储层预测模式等。
Jiyang depression is located in Bohaiwan basin, where hydrocarbon-bearing tertiary sequences is widely distributed and has multiple types of reservoirs. After more than40years'exploration, Jiyang depression is coming into mid-later stage of exploration, at present,80%of the reservoirs added each year are from stratigraphic, lithologic and complex buried-hill traps. So the exploration depends greatly on the techniques of seimic-based delicate forecasting, description and evaluation on resevoirs. However, nowadays seismic reservoir forecasting is usually done for a definit object, the general and systemic methods of seismic reservoir forecasting is rarely reported. With the increasing of exploration extent, the exploration object is more and more complicated and hiding, the current techniques of reservoir forecasting is not enough for the practice need, deepening study on reservoir forecasting is badly needed. This paper focuses on the optimal and integral method of reservoir forecasting in order to decrease the uncertainty of reservoir seismic forecasting and increase the probability of success for drilling.
The major results of this paper are as follows:
1. Systematic summary of the sedimentary characteristics and reservoir distribution of the tertiary reservoir in Jiyang depression, building a basic relationship between the sedimentary facies and lithologic, physical nature.
2. According to the study on reservoir condition and feasibily of forecasting techniques, this paper set up the optimal combination of different forecasting technologies to meet the requirement for the forecasting of rock facies, lithology, physical nature and formation liquid.
3. Concerning the validity of reservoir forecasting, this paper studed on the feasibility of reservoir forecasting and evaluation techniques, point out that the reservoir forecasting dependes on the size, rock physical parameters, and quality of seismic data of the reservoir, built the system for reservoir forecasting and evaluation. Originally developed a method for the validation evaluation of reservoir forecasting techniques based on risk probability, artificial neutral net and specialists system. This method makes it possible for quantitative evaluation of validity of reservoir forecasting by size, rock physical characters, lithological combination and seismic data quality.
4. Concerning the model and integration for seismic reservoir forecasting, this paper developed an integral forecasting technology for typical reservoir types such as fluvial sandstone, turbulent sandstone, shoal and bar sandstone and fan gravel stone.8models are built for reservoir forecasting:low-sand/mud-ration for fluvial sandstone; high-sand/mud-ration for fluvial reservoir; sub water fan; basin bottom fan; collapsed turbulence sandstone; multiple-material-sources turbulence sandstone, and thin interbeds sandstone.
(1)系统地总结了济阳坳陷第三系主要储层沉积学特征,建立了典型储层规范沉积模式及标准样式,明确它们的展布规律及影响因素,进一步认识了沉积环境条件对沉积的控制作用,建立了沉积相(亚相)与储层岩性物性的基本关系。
(2)根据储层条件和地震预测技术适应性研究结果,从岩相、岩性、物性和流体预测中不同精度要求出发,建立了不同预测技术的最佳组合,形成储层岩相、岩性、物性和流体预测技术。主要成果有：形成了“三相、古地形、四分析”岩相描述,岩相、属性“双约束”岩性识别,“多井拟合、联合反演”物性估算,叠前叠后地震属性“组合差异”流体预测等技术方法。
(3)在储层地震预测有效性评价方面,通过地震预测评价技术的可行性研究,明确了储层地震预测对地质体尺度、岩石物性参数和地震资料品质等方面的要求。通过地震预测评价模型、评价体系和评价指标的研究,建立了储层地震预测评价体系；创新地发展了应用风险概率、人工神经网络和专家系统等方法进行储层预测有效性评价,通过储层尺度大小、岩石物理特征、岩性组合和资料品质的评价指标集参数及其权值,实现储层地震预测有效性进行定量评价。
(4)在典型储层地震预测模式和集成方面,对地震预测技术进行优化,集成河道砂体、浊积砂体、滩坝砂体和砂砾岩体等4类典型砂体地震预测技术,建立了8种储层预测模式：“低砂泥比”河道砂体精细描述模式,“高砂泥比”河流相储层预测模式,近岸水下扇体储层预测模式,盆底扇储层预测模式,滑塌浊积砂体精细描述模式,多物源浊积砂体储层预测模式和薄互层储层预测模式等。
Jiyang depression is located in Bohaiwan basin, where hydrocarbon-bearing tertiary sequences is widely distributed and has multiple types of reservoirs. After more than40years'exploration, Jiyang depression is coming into mid-later stage of exploration, at present,80%of the reservoirs added each year are from stratigraphic, lithologic and complex buried-hill traps. So the exploration depends greatly on the techniques of seimic-based delicate forecasting, description and evaluation on resevoirs. However, nowadays seismic reservoir forecasting is usually done for a definit object, the general and systemic methods of seismic reservoir forecasting is rarely reported. With the increasing of exploration extent, the exploration object is more and more complicated and hiding, the current techniques of reservoir forecasting is not enough for the practice need, deepening study on reservoir forecasting is badly needed. This paper focuses on the optimal and integral method of reservoir forecasting in order to decrease the uncertainty of reservoir seismic forecasting and increase the probability of success for drilling.
The major results of this paper are as follows:
1. Systematic summary of the sedimentary characteristics and reservoir distribution of the tertiary reservoir in Jiyang depression, building a basic relationship between the sedimentary facies and lithologic, physical nature.
2. According to the study on reservoir condition and feasibily of forecasting techniques, this paper set up the optimal combination of different forecasting technologies to meet the requirement for the forecasting of rock facies, lithology, physical nature and formation liquid.
3. Concerning the validity of reservoir forecasting, this paper studed on the feasibility of reservoir forecasting and evaluation techniques, point out that the reservoir forecasting dependes on the size, rock physical parameters, and quality of seismic data of the reservoir, built the system for reservoir forecasting and evaluation. Originally developed a method for the validation evaluation of reservoir forecasting techniques based on risk probability, artificial neutral net and specialists system. This method makes it possible for quantitative evaluation of validity of reservoir forecasting by size, rock physical characters, lithological combination and seismic data quality.
4. Concerning the model and integration for seismic reservoir forecasting, this paper developed an integral forecasting technology for typical reservoir types such as fluvial sandstone, turbulent sandstone, shoal and bar sandstone and fan gravel stone.8models are built for reservoir forecasting:low-sand/mud-ration for fluvial sandstone; high-sand/mud-ration for fluvial reservoir; sub water fan; basin bottom fan; collapsed turbulence sandstone; multiple-material-sources turbulence sandstone, and thin interbeds sandstone.
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