基于不确定性理论的河流环境风险模型及其预警指标体系
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摘要
河流环境风险分析是河流环境风险管理的重要基础工作。然而，河流环境风险系统中广泛存在的不确定性因素影响了河流环境风险分析的精度，甚至会导致错误的风险管理决策。
论文总结了河流环境风险分析的主要内容及方法，回顾了河流环境健康风险、河流污染风险、河流沉积物生态风险以及河流突发性风险等的主要特点及研究方法。阐述了环境风险系统中不确定性理论的研究进展，在此基础上指出了三种常用的不确定性研究方法：区间数学方法、模糊数学方法以及随机数学方法。将这三种不确定性方法分别应用于河流环境风险分析及预警指标体系的构建中，系统地分析不确定性因素对环境风险评价的影响。
研究工作和研究成果包括以下内容：（1）建立了基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险评价模型。用区间数表示污染物的浓度，在一定程度上解决了由于采用年均值所带了的不确定性。并对评价标准进行了模糊化分级，避免了由于评价标准的单一所带来的武断判别。对比显示基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险评价模型的评价结果在某些断面上高于确定性评价。并根据分析结果选取了优先控制污染物，为河流污染的治理提供了一定的理论支持。（2）建立了基于模糊综合浓度和动态聚类分析的河流水环境健康风险评价模型。提出了模糊综合浓度的概念，根据枯、平、丰三个水期污染物的浓度计算了湘江干流的模糊综合浓度；研究了基于模糊综合浓度的水环境健康风险评价，采用动态聚类分析对各断面的健康风险进行分类；为经济、人力、物力有限情况下优先控制断面的选取提供了理论基础。（3）建立了基于模糊综合评价的河流污染风险评价模型。将河流污染风险定义为危害性与脆弱性的模糊综合函数，分别建立了危害性和模糊性的模糊隶属函数，运用模糊综合评价计算河流的污染风险。该模型与前两个模型相比，不仅仅考虑了河流污染物对人体的健康危害，同时考虑了河流本身的脆弱性，即受污染的难易程度。（4）通过对比前面三个模型下的水环境健康风险评价结果，指出了风险评价过程中不确定性的存在及其影响，并证明在河流水环境健康风险评价中，污染物浓度的不确定性及评价标准的不确定性是最重要的两个方面。（5）建立了基于模糊毒性指数的河流沉积物重金属污染风险评价模型。在风险评价代码和潜在生态风险指数法的基础上，提出了模糊毒性指数的概念，建立了改进的潜在生态风险指数法。对今后河流沉积物生态风险的分析起到了一定的推动作用。（6）根据随机理论，利用序贯高斯方法模拟了长沙某铬盐厂地下水中六价铬的分布情况，将被六价铬污染的地下水作为污染源。采用非稳定二维水质模型，模拟地下水突发事故对河流水质的影响及对下游取水口的风险。（7）建立了基于模糊层次分析法的河流污染风险的预警指标体系，运用层次分析法确定指标权重，模糊层次分析法和模糊综合评判确定预警等级，并对不同的预警级别提出了相应的风险防范措施。
针对河流环境风险分析，结合不确定性理论，系统地分析了河流水环境健康风险、污染风险、沉积物生态风险、河流突发风险中的不确定性，运用区间数学方法、模糊数学方法建立了若干基于不确定性理论的风险评价模型，并用序贯高斯随机数学方法模拟了污染物的分布情况。一方面，有助于深刻揭示不确定性因素对河流环境风险评价的影响，在本质上加深对河流环境风险系统中不确定性的认识，具有一定的理论指导意义。另一方面论文以湘江流域为研究对象，基于不确定性理论分别研究了湘江流域长株潭段的水环境健康风险，湘江流域水环境的污染风险，株洲霞湾港沉积物的生态风险以及长沙某铬盐厂地下水突发事故下对湘江的污染风险，对于湘江流域污染风险的管理具有一定的借鉴意义。
The environmental risk analysis of river is considered to be an importantfoundation work of river environmental risk management. However, the uncertaintieswidely existed in the environmental risk system of river have an influence on theaccuracy of the environmental risk analysis of river., And even, wrong riskmanagement decisions may be made.
This dissertation first summarized the main contents and methods of riverenvironmental risk analysis， and then reviewed the main features and researchmethods of water environmental health risk, ecological risk of sediments and suddenpollution risk of river. The research progresses of uncertainty theory and theirapplications to environmental risk system were elaborated. Based on these, threetypes of uncertain theory used in the dissertation were pointed out includingstochastic mathematic methodology, interval mathematic methodology and fuzzymathematic methodology. The three types of uncertain theory were used in the riverenvironmental risk analysis and the construction of warning index system. And theinfluences of uncertainties on the environmental risk assessment were analyzedsystematically.
The main works and novel results include the following elements.(1) Anintegrated fuzzy model was developed to describe environmental health risks fromwater sources based on interval numbers. In this model, the concentrations ofcontaminations were expressed as interval numbers, which can deal with theuncertainties due to use the uniform annual values in certain degree. The assessmentsystem was classified based on fuzzy theory, which can avoid the arbitrary decisionowing to the single assessment criterion. Comparison of the interval number modeland the deterministic model revealed that the risks under the interval number modelwere higher than that under the deterministic model. The priority pollutants could beselected according to the assessment results. This research can provide some technicalsupport for the pollution risk control of river.(2) The water environmental health riskassessment model based on fuzzy integrated concentration and dynamic clusteringanalysis was established. The conception of fuzzy integrated concentrations wasstated and calculated based on the contamination’s concentrations in the dry season,medium season and abundant season and the percentages of the three seasons in the whole year. The fuzzy integrated concentrations were used to calculate the health riskof each section. According to the dynamic clustering analysis, the risks of all thesections were classified, which could provide theories basis for the selection of thepriority control section under limited economic, manpower and physical resources.(3)An integrated model for assessing the risk of river environmental pollution based onfuzziness was founded. River pollution risk was defined as the fuzzy function ofhazard and vulnerability. The fuzzy membership function of hazard and vulnerabilitywere established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used to calculate the riskof river pollution. Compared with two previous models, this model not onlyconsidered the health hazards of river from pollutants on the human body, but alsotaking the vulnerability of river into account.(4) The comparisons of the results ofwater environmental health risk assessment under three above models revealed thatthe uncertainties existed in the process of risk assessment. And it also was certifiedthat the effect of uncertainties on the assessment results was huge. In the assessmentprocess of river water environmental health risk, the uncertainties of thecontamination’s concentrations and the assessment criterion were both very important.(5) Evaluation model for ecological risk of heavy metals pollution in river sedimentsbased on fuzzy toxicity index was established. On the basis of the Risk AssessmentCode and Potential Ecological Risk Index, the concept of fuzzy toxicity coefficientwas stated, and the Modified Potential Ecological Risk Index was established basedon the fuzzy toxicity coefficient. This model would play an important role inpromoting ecological risk analysis in future.(6) Based on stochastic theory,sequential Gaussian method was used to simulate the distribution of hexavalentchromium in the groundwater of a chromium salt factory in Changsha. Thegroundwater contaminated by hexavalent chromium was selected as a source ofpollution. Unsteady two-dimensional water quality model was used to simulate theinfluence of groundwater unexpected incidents on the river water quality and the riskof downstream water intakes.(7) The warning index system for river pollution riskwas established based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which included warningindex system on daily pollution risk and sudden pollution risk. The warning indexsystem could provide technical support for the risk control of river pollution in future.
Aiming to the environment risk analysis of river, the uncertainties in the waterenvironmental health risk, river environmental pollution risk, ecological risk of riversediments and sudden river pollution risk were systematically analyzed, using theuncertainty theory. Several risk assessment models were established based on fuzzy mathematic methodology and interval mathematic methodology. Furthermore,Sequential Gaussian method was used to simulate the distribution of contamination ingroundwater stochastically. On one hand, this dissertation is helpful to reveal thecharacteristics of uncertainties in river environmental risk system and to betterunderstand the uncertainties in environmental risk system, which would have sometheoretical significance. On the other hand, the contents of this dissertation includedthe water environmental health risk of Chang-Zhu-Tan section of Xiangjiang River,the water environmental pollution risk of the Xiangjiang River, the ecological risk forsediments of Xiawan harbor and the risk of Xiangjiang water pollution due to thegroundwater unexpected incidents. Therefore, this dissertation would have somereference significance for the risk management of Xiangjiang River.
论文总结了河流环境风险分析的主要内容及方法，回顾了河流环境健康风险、河流污染风险、河流沉积物生态风险以及河流突发性风险等的主要特点及研究方法。阐述了环境风险系统中不确定性理论的研究进展，在此基础上指出了三种常用的不确定性研究方法：区间数学方法、模糊数学方法以及随机数学方法。将这三种不确定性方法分别应用于河流环境风险分析及预警指标体系的构建中，系统地分析不确定性因素对环境风险评价的影响。
研究工作和研究成果包括以下内容：（1）建立了基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险评价模型。用区间数表示污染物的浓度，在一定程度上解决了由于采用年均值所带了的不确定性。并对评价标准进行了模糊化分级，避免了由于评价标准的单一所带来的武断判别。对比显示基于区间数的河流水环境健康风险评价模型的评价结果在某些断面上高于确定性评价。并根据分析结果选取了优先控制污染物，为河流污染的治理提供了一定的理论支持。（2）建立了基于模糊综合浓度和动态聚类分析的河流水环境健康风险评价模型。提出了模糊综合浓度的概念，根据枯、平、丰三个水期污染物的浓度计算了湘江干流的模糊综合浓度；研究了基于模糊综合浓度的水环境健康风险评价，采用动态聚类分析对各断面的健康风险进行分类；为经济、人力、物力有限情况下优先控制断面的选取提供了理论基础。（3）建立了基于模糊综合评价的河流污染风险评价模型。将河流污染风险定义为危害性与脆弱性的模糊综合函数，分别建立了危害性和模糊性的模糊隶属函数，运用模糊综合评价计算河流的污染风险。该模型与前两个模型相比，不仅仅考虑了河流污染物对人体的健康危害，同时考虑了河流本身的脆弱性，即受污染的难易程度。（4）通过对比前面三个模型下的水环境健康风险评价结果，指出了风险评价过程中不确定性的存在及其影响，并证明在河流水环境健康风险评价中，污染物浓度的不确定性及评价标准的不确定性是最重要的两个方面。（5）建立了基于模糊毒性指数的河流沉积物重金属污染风险评价模型。在风险评价代码和潜在生态风险指数法的基础上，提出了模糊毒性指数的概念，建立了改进的潜在生态风险指数法。对今后河流沉积物生态风险的分析起到了一定的推动作用。（6）根据随机理论，利用序贯高斯方法模拟了长沙某铬盐厂地下水中六价铬的分布情况，将被六价铬污染的地下水作为污染源。采用非稳定二维水质模型，模拟地下水突发事故对河流水质的影响及对下游取水口的风险。（7）建立了基于模糊层次分析法的河流污染风险的预警指标体系，运用层次分析法确定指标权重，模糊层次分析法和模糊综合评判确定预警等级，并对不同的预警级别提出了相应的风险防范措施。
针对河流环境风险分析，结合不确定性理论，系统地分析了河流水环境健康风险、污染风险、沉积物生态风险、河流突发风险中的不确定性，运用区间数学方法、模糊数学方法建立了若干基于不确定性理论的风险评价模型，并用序贯高斯随机数学方法模拟了污染物的分布情况。一方面，有助于深刻揭示不确定性因素对河流环境风险评价的影响，在本质上加深对河流环境风险系统中不确定性的认识，具有一定的理论指导意义。另一方面论文以湘江流域为研究对象，基于不确定性理论分别研究了湘江流域长株潭段的水环境健康风险，湘江流域水环境的污染风险，株洲霞湾港沉积物的生态风险以及长沙某铬盐厂地下水突发事故下对湘江的污染风险，对于湘江流域污染风险的管理具有一定的借鉴意义。
The environmental risk analysis of river is considered to be an importantfoundation work of river environmental risk management. However, the uncertaintieswidely existed in the environmental risk system of river have an influence on theaccuracy of the environmental risk analysis of river., And even, wrong riskmanagement decisions may be made.
This dissertation first summarized the main contents and methods of riverenvironmental risk analysis， and then reviewed the main features and researchmethods of water environmental health risk, ecological risk of sediments and suddenpollution risk of river. The research progresses of uncertainty theory and theirapplications to environmental risk system were elaborated. Based on these, threetypes of uncertain theory used in the dissertation were pointed out includingstochastic mathematic methodology, interval mathematic methodology and fuzzymathematic methodology. The three types of uncertain theory were used in the riverenvironmental risk analysis and the construction of warning index system. And theinfluences of uncertainties on the environmental risk assessment were analyzedsystematically.
The main works and novel results include the following elements.(1) Anintegrated fuzzy model was developed to describe environmental health risks fromwater sources based on interval numbers. In this model, the concentrations ofcontaminations were expressed as interval numbers, which can deal with theuncertainties due to use the uniform annual values in certain degree. The assessmentsystem was classified based on fuzzy theory, which can avoid the arbitrary decisionowing to the single assessment criterion. Comparison of the interval number modeland the deterministic model revealed that the risks under the interval number modelwere higher than that under the deterministic model. The priority pollutants could beselected according to the assessment results. This research can provide some technicalsupport for the pollution risk control of river.(2) The water environmental health riskassessment model based on fuzzy integrated concentration and dynamic clusteringanalysis was established. The conception of fuzzy integrated concentrations wasstated and calculated based on the contamination’s concentrations in the dry season,medium season and abundant season and the percentages of the three seasons in the whole year. The fuzzy integrated concentrations were used to calculate the health riskof each section. According to the dynamic clustering analysis, the risks of all thesections were classified, which could provide theories basis for the selection of thepriority control section under limited economic, manpower and physical resources.(3)An integrated model for assessing the risk of river environmental pollution based onfuzziness was founded. River pollution risk was defined as the fuzzy function ofhazard and vulnerability. The fuzzy membership function of hazard and vulnerabilitywere established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used to calculate the riskof river pollution. Compared with two previous models, this model not onlyconsidered the health hazards of river from pollutants on the human body, but alsotaking the vulnerability of river into account.(4) The comparisons of the results ofwater environmental health risk assessment under three above models revealed thatthe uncertainties existed in the process of risk assessment. And it also was certifiedthat the effect of uncertainties on the assessment results was huge. In the assessmentprocess of river water environmental health risk, the uncertainties of thecontamination’s concentrations and the assessment criterion were both very important.(5) Evaluation model for ecological risk of heavy metals pollution in river sedimentsbased on fuzzy toxicity index was established. On the basis of the Risk AssessmentCode and Potential Ecological Risk Index, the concept of fuzzy toxicity coefficientwas stated, and the Modified Potential Ecological Risk Index was established basedon the fuzzy toxicity coefficient. This model would play an important role inpromoting ecological risk analysis in future.(6) Based on stochastic theory,sequential Gaussian method was used to simulate the distribution of hexavalentchromium in the groundwater of a chromium salt factory in Changsha. Thegroundwater contaminated by hexavalent chromium was selected as a source ofpollution. Unsteady two-dimensional water quality model was used to simulate theinfluence of groundwater unexpected incidents on the river water quality and the riskof downstream water intakes.(7) The warning index system for river pollution riskwas established based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which included warningindex system on daily pollution risk and sudden pollution risk. The warning indexsystem could provide technical support for the risk control of river pollution in future.
Aiming to the environment risk analysis of river, the uncertainties in the waterenvironmental health risk, river environmental pollution risk, ecological risk of riversediments and sudden river pollution risk were systematically analyzed, using theuncertainty theory. Several risk assessment models were established based on fuzzy mathematic methodology and interval mathematic methodology. Furthermore,Sequential Gaussian method was used to simulate the distribution of contamination ingroundwater stochastically. On one hand, this dissertation is helpful to reveal thecharacteristics of uncertainties in river environmental risk system and to betterunderstand the uncertainties in environmental risk system, which would have sometheoretical significance. On the other hand, the contents of this dissertation includedthe water environmental health risk of Chang-Zhu-Tan section of Xiangjiang River,the water environmental pollution risk of the Xiangjiang River, the ecological risk forsediments of Xiawan harbor and the risk of Xiangjiang water pollution due to thegroundwater unexpected incidents. Therefore, this dissertation would have somereference significance for the risk management of Xiangjiang River.
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