湖南省能源消费碳排放系统分析与调控
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摘要
21世纪,全球人类共同面临着资源能源日趋枯竭、环境污染加剧、气候变化等一系列灾难性问题,特别是由于能源消费增长而引致的碳排放增多问题已日益成为威胁世界各国实现可持续发展目标的重要制约因素。当前,能源碳排放问题已不仅仅是一个科学问题,而是一个贯穿于政治、经济、社会等各领域的实践性问题。在这种背景下,对能源消费碳排放开展系统性研究,已经成为国内外地理学、环境科学、经济学等多学科的重点研究领域与研究热点。省级行政区域是我国实现既定节能减排目标的重要行政单元之一。为此,以中部典型省份—湖南省为例,开展能源消费碳排放系统分析与调控研究对推进新时期湖南省“两型社会”的建设以及节能减排目标的实现等均具有重要意义。
本文立足于湖南省实际,基于地理学、经济学、环境科学等多学科理论,整体上遵循“理论研究—实证研究—对策研究”的研究思路,梳理了支撑能源消费碳排放系统分析与调控研究的理论基础,探讨了能源消费碳排放的动力演化机制、调控机理与框架,测算了湖南省能源消费碳排放,表征了湖南省能源消费碳排放的时空格局,研究了湖南省能源消费碳排放的驱动力,分析了湖南省能源消费碳排放与经济增长的协调性关系,测度了湖南省能源消费碳排放安全预警指数,提出了湖南省能源消费碳排放的调控重点、分区调控策略与调控对策。
(1)系统梳理了能源消费碳排放的相关科学概念、理论基础、动力演化机制、调控机理、调控框架与调控流程。系统科学理论、可持续发展理论、生态足迹理论、脱钩发展理论、环境库滋涅茨理论与预警理论构成了支撑能源消费碳排放系统分析与调控研究的理论基础体系。能源消费碳排放的调控机制主要包括政策引导机制、法律(包括规划)约束机制、市场调节机制以及技术支撑机制。能源消费碳排放调控是一个动态的循环过程,其调控框架主要包括能源消费碳排放的调控主体和受控对象,能源消费碳排放调控的输入和输出,能源消费碳排放的调控目标和行为,信息及其传输和反馈,以及能源消费碳排放调控决策和措施。
(2)定量测算了湖南省能源消费碳排放,并对湖南省能源消费碳排放的时空格局进行了系统分析。2000-2011年,湖南省能源消费碳排放呈现出逐年递增的趋势,由2000年的2171.35×104t增加到2011年的8208.88×104t。湖南省能源消费碳排放总量、人均能源消费碳排放、能源消费碳排放强度、地均能源消费碳排放均呈现出较大的空间差异。从能源消费碳排放效率的空间差异来看,张家界、湘西州、长沙、常德、株洲、岳阳与湘潭属于湖南省能源消费碳排放效率高值区；益阳、郴州、娄底、永州与衡阳属于湖南省能源消费碳排放效率中值区；邵阳和怀化属于湖南省能源消费碳排放效率低值区。
(3)基于灰色关联法、相关系数法、LMDI模型以及STIRPAT模型系统研究了湖南省能源消费碳排放的驱动力。经济产出效应对湖南省能源消费碳排放贡献最大,累积效应达27698.40,经济发展是湖南省能源消费碳排放增长的主导因素；人口规模对湖南省能源消费碳排放增长也有较大影响,累积效应达到1573.34；产业结构累积效应达到5328.18,也是湖南省能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素；能源结构效应多数年份为正值,且累积贡献率为991.71；能源强度效应为-418.64,其对湖南省能源消费碳排放的影响并不显著。湖南省能源消费碳排放与人口规模的弹性系数是4.96,与城市化率的弹性系数是1.07,与人均GDP的弹性系数是0.32,与第三产业结构所占比重的弹性系数是-0.69。根据能源消费碳排放驱动因子的驱动方向,可将能源消费碳排放驱动因子分为正向强化驱动因子、负向弱化驱动因子和双向拉动驱动因子。
(4)客观分析了湖南省能源消费排放与经济增长的协调性关系。湖南省经济增长与能源消费碳排放之间存在着长期协整关系,且是经济增长到能源消费碳排放增长的单向因果关系。1995年以来,湖南省大部分年份能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间处于相对脱钩状态。湖南省各市州能源消费碳排放与经济增长间的脱钩弹性差异较大,且呈现出不稳定的发展态势。湖南省能源消费碳排放、人均能源消费碳排放均与人均GDP之间存在着倒“U”型曲线关系。1995年以来,湖南省能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间均处于颉颃阶段,其耦合度在总体上经历了一个“升高—下降—升高—下降”的变化趋势,其耦合协调发展度和综合指数均在总体上呈现出上升趋势。
(5)基于压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型框架,创新构建了湖南省能源消费碳排放安全预警指标体系,从时、空两个维度对湖南省能源消费碳排放安全警情进行了综合评价,并运用灰色预测法对湖南省能源消费碳排放安全警情演变趋势进行了预测。从时间上看,2000-2011年间,湖南省能源消费碳排放安全总体呈波动上升趋势,呈现出“临界状态”-“不安全”-“临界状态”-“亚安全状态”的发展趋势,其警度则呈现“中警”-“重警”-“中警”-“轻警”的发展趋势。从空间上看,湖南省能源消费碳排放安全存在着较大的空间差异,总体上呈现湘中与湘南警情较高(安全指数较低),其它地区警情较低(安全指数较高)的空间格局,即长沙、永州、湘西州、常德、邵阳、怀化、湘潭、张家界、岳阳与株洲属于“中警”；衡阳、益阳、郴州与娄底属于“重警”。预警预测表明,湖南省能源消费碳排放安全指数由2012年的0.6267增加到2016年的0.6833,碳排放安全指数逐步提高,但安全等级仍长期处于“亚安全”状态,对应警度也仍为“轻警”,能源消费碳排放安全形势仍不容乐观。根据各指标的权重大小,可将非化石能源消费所占比重、城市化水平、R&D经费投入占GDP比重、煤炭消费所占比重、人均碳排放等指标视为湖南省能源消费碳排放安全的关键障碍因子。以2011年为基期年,设定7种情景对湖南省能源消费碳排放安全关键障碍因子进行调控模拟,情景7即当对压力系统、状态系统和响应系统13个关键障碍因子进行调控时,其敏感变化率为13.51%,为所有情景中敏感变化率最高的情景模式。
(6)基于决策尺度和空间尺度对湖南省能源消费碳排放调控重点和分区调控策略进行了相应研究,同时基于区域可持续发展目标对新时期湖南省能源消费碳排放调控对策展开了深入探讨,以期为湖南省能源消费碳排放的科学调控与管理提供参考。从决策尺度出发,湖南省能源消费碳排放的调控重点主要包括5大领域,即产业领域、能源领域、生活领域、城市领域与技术领域。从空间尺度出发,湖南省应制定分区域的能源消费碳排放调控策略。其中,长株潭城市群应采取以技术创新为主导的调控策略,洞庭湖经济区应采取以清洁生产为主导的调控策略,大湘南地区应采取以产业转型为主导的调控策略,大湘西地区应采取以林业碳汇为主导的调控策略。
In the21st century, the global human beenings all faced a series of catastrophic problems such as energy exhausted gradually, environment destroyed and polluted seriously and climate changed. Especially, the more increased carbon emissions due to energy consumption had been became an important restriction factor for the world achieving sustainable development objective. Currently, the energy consumption carbon emissions problem was not only a science matter, but also a practical problem that ran through political, economic and social fields. In this context, it had been become an important research field and focus for geography, environmental science, economics and other subjects. Administrative unit was an important region for our country achieving energy conservation and emissions reduction target. It was of great significance for "two-oriented society" construction, energy conservation and emissions reduction target of Hunan Province in the new period to launch system analysis and regulation research for energy carbon emissions.
Based on the actual Hunan Province and geography, economics, environmental science and other scientific theory, this paper followed the approach of " theory research-empirical research-countermeasure research", combed some theoretical basis for supporting energy consumption carbon emissions system analysis and regulation research, discussed the dynamic evolution mechanism, regulation mechanism and framework of energy consumption carbon emissions, calculated the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, represented its spatial-temporal difference of energy consumption carbon emissions and carbon footprints of Hunan Province, studied the driving force of energy consumption carbon emission of Hunan Province, analysised the coordinate relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth of Hunan Province, measured the safety early-warning index of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, put forward the regulation emphasis, partition regulation strategies and countermeasures of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province.
(1) This paper reviewed related scientific concept, theoretical foundation, dynamic devolution mechanism, regulation mechanism, regulation framework and process of energy consumption carbon emissions. System Science Theory, Sustainable Development Theory, Ecological Footprints Theory, Decoupling Theory, Environment Kuznets Theory, Early-warning Theory were constituted the theory system for supporting energy consumption system analysis and regulation research. The regulation mechanism of energy consumption carbon emissions included policy guidance mechanism, law (including planning) constraint mechanism, market regulating mechanism and technical support mechanism. It was a dynamic process for energy consumption carbon emissions regulating. The regulation framework mainly included regulation subject and controlled object, the input and output, the regulated target and regulated behaviors, the information and its transmission and feedback, regulation policies and measures.
(2) The energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province were measured. Meantime, this paper researched spatial-temporal pattern of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province presented a situation that increasing year by year. It raised from2171.35million t in2000to8208.88million t in2011. The total energy consumption carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, the carbon emissions intensity and per land carbon emissions all showed a larger spatial difference. From the view of energy consumption carbon emissions efficiency, Zhangjiajie, Xiangxi, Changsha, Changde, Zhuzhou, Yueyang and Xiangtan belonged to the high value region of carbon emissions efficiency; Yiyang, Chenzhou, Loudi, Yongzhou and Hengyang belonged to the middle value region of carbon emissions efficiency; Shaoyang and Huaihua belonged to the low value region of carbon emissions efficiency.
(3) Based on the Grey Correlation method, Correlation Coefficient method, LMDI model and STIRPAT model, this paper studied the energy consumption carbon emissions driving force of Hunan Province. The economic output effect was the largest contribution to the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, and its cumulative effect was27698.40. The economic development was the leading factor to the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The population size also had a great influence on energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, and its cumulative effect was1573.34. The cumulative effect of the industrial structure was5328.18, and it was also the main factor for energy carbon emissions growth of Hunan Province. In most years, the energy structure effect was positive, and its cumulative contribution rate was991.71. The energy intensity effect was-418.64, and it had no significant impact on energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and the population size was4.96. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and the urbanization rate was1.07. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and per capita GDP was0.32. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and third industrial structure was-0.69. According to driving direction, the driving factor of energy consumption carbon emissions can be divided into positive reinforcement factors, the negative weakening factors and two-way pulled factors.
(4) This paper analysised the coordination relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth. The two had a long-term cointegration relationship, and it was a one-way granger asual relationship that from economic growth to energy consumption carbon emissions. Since1995, the relative decoupling situation was occurred between the two in most years. There was a bigger spatial difference of decoupling situation in Hunan Province. It had inverted U shape curve between the energy consumption carbon emission and per capita GDP in Hunan Province. It also had inverted U shape curve between the per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP in Hunan Province. Since1995, the antagonism was existed between energy consumption carbon emissions and the economic growth of Hunan Province. The degree of coupling was generally experienced a " rise-decent-rise-decent" change trend. The comprehensive index generally presented increasing trend.
(5) This paper builded the energy consumption carbon emissions security early-warning index system, and evaluated the safety alert of Hunan Province from time and spatial two dimensions. The security alert of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province was forecasted. The energy consumption carbon emissions safety generally presented a trend that "critical state-unsafe-critical state-below safe state" and "middle alert-heavy alert-middle alert-light alert". It also presented a larger spatial difference for energy consumption carbon emissions safety. The spatial difference was the lower security alert in Central and Northern Hunan and the higher security alert in Hunan other regions. Changsha, Yongzhou, Xiangxi, Changde, Shaoyang, Huaihua, Xiangtan, Zhangjiajie, Yueyang and Zhuzhou belonged to the middle alert degree; Hengyang, Yiyang, Chenzhou and Loudi belonged to the heavy alert degree. The safety index of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province increased by0.6267in2012to0.6833in2016. The energy consumption carbon emissions safety index was gradually increased, but the corresponding warning degree was still light alert. According the weight of each index, the non-fossil energy consumption proportion, urbanization, R&D investment proportion in GDP, coal consumption proportion, per capita carbon emission and the other indicators was diagnosed as the key obstacle factors for restricting the energy consumption carbon emission safety of Hunan Province. The control simulation was launched by setting seven scenarios for energy consumption carbon emissions safety of Hunan Province using2011for base year. The seventh scenario that controlled all13main obstacle factors in pressure system, state system and response system was the best scenario. The sensitive rate of seventh scenario was13.51%. It was the highest scenario in all7scenarios.
(6) This paper analysised the regulation points, regional regulation strategy and regulation countermeasures. From the decision-making scale, the key five fields of energy consumption carbon emissions regulation of Hunan Province mainly were industrial, energy, living, urban and technology field. From the space scale, Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration should be taken technological innovation leading control strategy; Dongting Lade Ecology Regions should be taken clean production leading control strategy; the Large Southern Hunan Province should be taken industry transformation control strategy; the Western Hunan Province should be taken forestry carbon sink leading control strategy.
本文立足于湖南省实际,基于地理学、经济学、环境科学等多学科理论,整体上遵循“理论研究—实证研究—对策研究”的研究思路,梳理了支撑能源消费碳排放系统分析与调控研究的理论基础,探讨了能源消费碳排放的动力演化机制、调控机理与框架,测算了湖南省能源消费碳排放,表征了湖南省能源消费碳排放的时空格局,研究了湖南省能源消费碳排放的驱动力,分析了湖南省能源消费碳排放与经济增长的协调性关系,测度了湖南省能源消费碳排放安全预警指数,提出了湖南省能源消费碳排放的调控重点、分区调控策略与调控对策。
(1)系统梳理了能源消费碳排放的相关科学概念、理论基础、动力演化机制、调控机理、调控框架与调控流程。系统科学理论、可持续发展理论、生态足迹理论、脱钩发展理论、环境库滋涅茨理论与预警理论构成了支撑能源消费碳排放系统分析与调控研究的理论基础体系。能源消费碳排放的调控机制主要包括政策引导机制、法律(包括规划)约束机制、市场调节机制以及技术支撑机制。能源消费碳排放调控是一个动态的循环过程,其调控框架主要包括能源消费碳排放的调控主体和受控对象,能源消费碳排放调控的输入和输出,能源消费碳排放的调控目标和行为,信息及其传输和反馈,以及能源消费碳排放调控决策和措施。
(2)定量测算了湖南省能源消费碳排放,并对湖南省能源消费碳排放的时空格局进行了系统分析。2000-2011年,湖南省能源消费碳排放呈现出逐年递增的趋势,由2000年的2171.35×104t增加到2011年的8208.88×104t。湖南省能源消费碳排放总量、人均能源消费碳排放、能源消费碳排放强度、地均能源消费碳排放均呈现出较大的空间差异。从能源消费碳排放效率的空间差异来看,张家界、湘西州、长沙、常德、株洲、岳阳与湘潭属于湖南省能源消费碳排放效率高值区；益阳、郴州、娄底、永州与衡阳属于湖南省能源消费碳排放效率中值区；邵阳和怀化属于湖南省能源消费碳排放效率低值区。
(3)基于灰色关联法、相关系数法、LMDI模型以及STIRPAT模型系统研究了湖南省能源消费碳排放的驱动力。经济产出效应对湖南省能源消费碳排放贡献最大,累积效应达27698.40,经济发展是湖南省能源消费碳排放增长的主导因素；人口规模对湖南省能源消费碳排放增长也有较大影响,累积效应达到1573.34；产业结构累积效应达到5328.18,也是湖南省能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素；能源结构效应多数年份为正值,且累积贡献率为991.71；能源强度效应为-418.64,其对湖南省能源消费碳排放的影响并不显著。湖南省能源消费碳排放与人口规模的弹性系数是4.96,与城市化率的弹性系数是1.07,与人均GDP的弹性系数是0.32,与第三产业结构所占比重的弹性系数是-0.69。根据能源消费碳排放驱动因子的驱动方向,可将能源消费碳排放驱动因子分为正向强化驱动因子、负向弱化驱动因子和双向拉动驱动因子。
(4)客观分析了湖南省能源消费排放与经济增长的协调性关系。湖南省经济增长与能源消费碳排放之间存在着长期协整关系,且是经济增长到能源消费碳排放增长的单向因果关系。1995年以来,湖南省大部分年份能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间处于相对脱钩状态。湖南省各市州能源消费碳排放与经济增长间的脱钩弹性差异较大,且呈现出不稳定的发展态势。湖南省能源消费碳排放、人均能源消费碳排放均与人均GDP之间存在着倒“U”型曲线关系。1995年以来,湖南省能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间均处于颉颃阶段,其耦合度在总体上经历了一个“升高—下降—升高—下降”的变化趋势,其耦合协调发展度和综合指数均在总体上呈现出上升趋势。
(5)基于压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型框架,创新构建了湖南省能源消费碳排放安全预警指标体系,从时、空两个维度对湖南省能源消费碳排放安全警情进行了综合评价,并运用灰色预测法对湖南省能源消费碳排放安全警情演变趋势进行了预测。从时间上看,2000-2011年间,湖南省能源消费碳排放安全总体呈波动上升趋势,呈现出“临界状态”-“不安全”-“临界状态”-“亚安全状态”的发展趋势,其警度则呈现“中警”-“重警”-“中警”-“轻警”的发展趋势。从空间上看,湖南省能源消费碳排放安全存在着较大的空间差异,总体上呈现湘中与湘南警情较高(安全指数较低),其它地区警情较低(安全指数较高)的空间格局,即长沙、永州、湘西州、常德、邵阳、怀化、湘潭、张家界、岳阳与株洲属于“中警”；衡阳、益阳、郴州与娄底属于“重警”。预警预测表明,湖南省能源消费碳排放安全指数由2012年的0.6267增加到2016年的0.6833,碳排放安全指数逐步提高,但安全等级仍长期处于“亚安全”状态,对应警度也仍为“轻警”,能源消费碳排放安全形势仍不容乐观。根据各指标的权重大小,可将非化石能源消费所占比重、城市化水平、R&D经费投入占GDP比重、煤炭消费所占比重、人均碳排放等指标视为湖南省能源消费碳排放安全的关键障碍因子。以2011年为基期年,设定7种情景对湖南省能源消费碳排放安全关键障碍因子进行调控模拟,情景7即当对压力系统、状态系统和响应系统13个关键障碍因子进行调控时,其敏感变化率为13.51%,为所有情景中敏感变化率最高的情景模式。
(6)基于决策尺度和空间尺度对湖南省能源消费碳排放调控重点和分区调控策略进行了相应研究,同时基于区域可持续发展目标对新时期湖南省能源消费碳排放调控对策展开了深入探讨,以期为湖南省能源消费碳排放的科学调控与管理提供参考。从决策尺度出发,湖南省能源消费碳排放的调控重点主要包括5大领域,即产业领域、能源领域、生活领域、城市领域与技术领域。从空间尺度出发,湖南省应制定分区域的能源消费碳排放调控策略。其中,长株潭城市群应采取以技术创新为主导的调控策略,洞庭湖经济区应采取以清洁生产为主导的调控策略,大湘南地区应采取以产业转型为主导的调控策略,大湘西地区应采取以林业碳汇为主导的调控策略。
In the21st century, the global human beenings all faced a series of catastrophic problems such as energy exhausted gradually, environment destroyed and polluted seriously and climate changed. Especially, the more increased carbon emissions due to energy consumption had been became an important restriction factor for the world achieving sustainable development objective. Currently, the energy consumption carbon emissions problem was not only a science matter, but also a practical problem that ran through political, economic and social fields. In this context, it had been become an important research field and focus for geography, environmental science, economics and other subjects. Administrative unit was an important region for our country achieving energy conservation and emissions reduction target. It was of great significance for "two-oriented society" construction, energy conservation and emissions reduction target of Hunan Province in the new period to launch system analysis and regulation research for energy carbon emissions.
Based on the actual Hunan Province and geography, economics, environmental science and other scientific theory, this paper followed the approach of " theory research-empirical research-countermeasure research", combed some theoretical basis for supporting energy consumption carbon emissions system analysis and regulation research, discussed the dynamic evolution mechanism, regulation mechanism and framework of energy consumption carbon emissions, calculated the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, represented its spatial-temporal difference of energy consumption carbon emissions and carbon footprints of Hunan Province, studied the driving force of energy consumption carbon emission of Hunan Province, analysised the coordinate relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth of Hunan Province, measured the safety early-warning index of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, put forward the regulation emphasis, partition regulation strategies and countermeasures of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province.
(1) This paper reviewed related scientific concept, theoretical foundation, dynamic devolution mechanism, regulation mechanism, regulation framework and process of energy consumption carbon emissions. System Science Theory, Sustainable Development Theory, Ecological Footprints Theory, Decoupling Theory, Environment Kuznets Theory, Early-warning Theory were constituted the theory system for supporting energy consumption system analysis and regulation research. The regulation mechanism of energy consumption carbon emissions included policy guidance mechanism, law (including planning) constraint mechanism, market regulating mechanism and technical support mechanism. It was a dynamic process for energy consumption carbon emissions regulating. The regulation framework mainly included regulation subject and controlled object, the input and output, the regulated target and regulated behaviors, the information and its transmission and feedback, regulation policies and measures.
(2) The energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province were measured. Meantime, this paper researched spatial-temporal pattern of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province presented a situation that increasing year by year. It raised from2171.35million t in2000to8208.88million t in2011. The total energy consumption carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, the carbon emissions intensity and per land carbon emissions all showed a larger spatial difference. From the view of energy consumption carbon emissions efficiency, Zhangjiajie, Xiangxi, Changsha, Changde, Zhuzhou, Yueyang and Xiangtan belonged to the high value region of carbon emissions efficiency; Yiyang, Chenzhou, Loudi, Yongzhou and Hengyang belonged to the middle value region of carbon emissions efficiency; Shaoyang and Huaihua belonged to the low value region of carbon emissions efficiency.
(3) Based on the Grey Correlation method, Correlation Coefficient method, LMDI model and STIRPAT model, this paper studied the energy consumption carbon emissions driving force of Hunan Province. The economic output effect was the largest contribution to the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, and its cumulative effect was27698.40. The economic development was the leading factor to the energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The population size also had a great influence on energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province, and its cumulative effect was1573.34. The cumulative effect of the industrial structure was5328.18, and it was also the main factor for energy carbon emissions growth of Hunan Province. In most years, the energy structure effect was positive, and its cumulative contribution rate was991.71. The energy intensity effect was-418.64, and it had no significant impact on energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and the population size was4.96. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and the urbanization rate was1.07. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and per capita GDP was0.32. The elasticity coefficient between energy consumption carbon emissions and third industrial structure was-0.69. According to driving direction, the driving factor of energy consumption carbon emissions can be divided into positive reinforcement factors, the negative weakening factors and two-way pulled factors.
(4) This paper analysised the coordination relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth. The two had a long-term cointegration relationship, and it was a one-way granger asual relationship that from economic growth to energy consumption carbon emissions. Since1995, the relative decoupling situation was occurred between the two in most years. There was a bigger spatial difference of decoupling situation in Hunan Province. It had inverted U shape curve between the energy consumption carbon emission and per capita GDP in Hunan Province. It also had inverted U shape curve between the per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP in Hunan Province. Since1995, the antagonism was existed between energy consumption carbon emissions and the economic growth of Hunan Province. The degree of coupling was generally experienced a " rise-decent-rise-decent" change trend. The comprehensive index generally presented increasing trend.
(5) This paper builded the energy consumption carbon emissions security early-warning index system, and evaluated the safety alert of Hunan Province from time and spatial two dimensions. The security alert of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province was forecasted. The energy consumption carbon emissions safety generally presented a trend that "critical state-unsafe-critical state-below safe state" and "middle alert-heavy alert-middle alert-light alert". It also presented a larger spatial difference for energy consumption carbon emissions safety. The spatial difference was the lower security alert in Central and Northern Hunan and the higher security alert in Hunan other regions. Changsha, Yongzhou, Xiangxi, Changde, Shaoyang, Huaihua, Xiangtan, Zhangjiajie, Yueyang and Zhuzhou belonged to the middle alert degree; Hengyang, Yiyang, Chenzhou and Loudi belonged to the heavy alert degree. The safety index of energy consumption carbon emissions of Hunan Province increased by0.6267in2012to0.6833in2016. The energy consumption carbon emissions safety index was gradually increased, but the corresponding warning degree was still light alert. According the weight of each index, the non-fossil energy consumption proportion, urbanization, R&D investment proportion in GDP, coal consumption proportion, per capita carbon emission and the other indicators was diagnosed as the key obstacle factors for restricting the energy consumption carbon emission safety of Hunan Province. The control simulation was launched by setting seven scenarios for energy consumption carbon emissions safety of Hunan Province using2011for base year. The seventh scenario that controlled all13main obstacle factors in pressure system, state system and response system was the best scenario. The sensitive rate of seventh scenario was13.51%. It was the highest scenario in all7scenarios.
(6) This paper analysised the regulation points, regional regulation strategy and regulation countermeasures. From the decision-making scale, the key five fields of energy consumption carbon emissions regulation of Hunan Province mainly were industrial, energy, living, urban and technology field. From the space scale, Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration should be taken technological innovation leading control strategy; Dongting Lade Ecology Regions should be taken clean production leading control strategy; the Large Southern Hunan Province should be taken industry transformation control strategy; the Western Hunan Province should be taken forestry carbon sink leading control strategy.
引文
① 《国家发展改革委关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知》,发改气候[2010]1587号文件,2010年8月10日。
② 《国家发展改革委关于开展第二批低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知》,发改气候[2012年]3760号文件,2012年11月26日。
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