关中地区水资源承载力测评与时空差异分析
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摘要
水资源承载力作为可持续发展研究和水资源安全战略研究中的一个基础性研究课题,自20世纪80年代由我国学者提出后,已引起学术界高度关注并成为当前水资源科学领域中的一个重点和热点研究问题。传统的水资源开发利用模式造成了水资源的日益贫乏和水环境污染的日益加重等重要问题。这种严峻的现实制约着社会经济的发展,影响社会安定和威胁着人类的生存。由于水资源对社会经济发展的重要作用,近年来,“以水定产,以水定发展”,即水资源承载力问题受到广泛关注。
本文运用水资源负载指数和基于人水关系的水资源承载力模型,测算了关中地区水资源负载指数、水资源承载力、水资源承载指数,依此对关中地区水资源承载力进行时空动态差异分析。根据水资源承载指数和人水平衡关系,在区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,分别划分人口超载地区、人水平衡地区和水量盈余地区。这一成果丰富了水资源承载力评价的研究理论,同时对关中地区水资源合理开发利用以及探索科学合理、安全可靠的面向21世纪的全省水资源可持续利用之路,对确保新世纪全省社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。
通过深入科学、综合的研究得出以下重要成果和结论:
(1)关中地区水资源开发利用潜力状况。
区域尺度上,1997-2006年关中地区水资源负载指数均高于10,为Ⅰ级,水资源利用程度很高,开发潜力很小,开发条件十分困难,有条件时需要外流域调水。市域尺度上,1997、2001、2006年关中地区五地市水资源负载指数均为Ⅰ级,水资源利用程度高,开发利用潜力很小,有条件时需要外流域调水缓解水资源压力。县域尺度上,关中地区所辖43个区县,1997年水资源负载指数为Ⅰ级的有34个区县,Ⅱ级的有6个区县,Ⅲ级的有2个区县,Ⅳ级的有1个区县:2001年,水资源负载指数属于Ⅰ级的有35个区县,Ⅱ的有2个区县,Ⅲ的有4个区县,Ⅴ的有2个区县;2006年,水资源负载指数属于Ⅰ的有36个区县,Ⅱ级的有3个区县,Ⅲ级的有3个区县,Ⅴ的有1个区县。关中地区水资源利用潜力具有明显的地域性,开发利用程度较高,开发潜力较小。
(2)关中地区水资源承载力状况。
区域尺度上,1997-2006年关中地区水资源承载指数介于1.76-4.90,其中2003年水资源承载状况为超载,其他年份水资源承载状况为过载。市域尺度上,关中地区各地市1997年、2001年和2006年水资源承载指数均高于1.33,全部为水资源超载区,人口超载率超过33%;其中1997-2006年西安市水资源承载状况为过载,咸阳市为严重超载,宝鸡市由过载降为超载,铜川和渭南市均由严重超载降为过载。县域尺度上,关中地区43个区县中多数为水资源超载区,其中1997年有40个区县为水资源超载区,1个为人水平衡区,2个为水资源盈余区;2001年有37个区县为水资源超载区,3个为人水平衡区,3个为水资源盈余区;2006年有35个区县为水资源超载区,5个为人水平衡区,3个为水资源盈余区。
本研究在以下方面有一定得进展和创新:
(1)基于水资源负载指数,从区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,系统评价了关中地区水资源利用程度与开发潜力,定量揭示了研究区的人口—经济发展与水资源的平衡关系。
(2)从区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,基于全国统一标准的水资源承载力对研究区水资源所能持续供养的人口规模在时间和空间上的变化进行系统分析,并对其所能供养的人口数量与实际人口进行差值分析,在时间和空间上确定研究区超载人口或者盈余人口的数量与规模。
(3)根据水资源承载指数和人水平衡关系,从区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,将研究区划分为水资源超载区、人水平衡区和水资源盈余区。
(4)本文基于研究区水资源承载状况提出几点建设性的建议。
As one of fundamental research subject in the study of sustainable development and safety strategy, bearing force of water resource has already aroused the high attention of academic circle and become a focus and hot spot in the science field of water resource at present since it was proposed by the researchers in our country during 1980s. The traditional mode of exploitation and utilization resulted in the increasingly poverty of water resource and the contamination of water environment and a series of other important problems. This severe reality has restricted the development of social economy, affected social stability and threatened the survival of human beings. Because of the crucial role of water resource in the development of social economy, in recent years, "using water resource to decide the production, using water resource to decide the development" is brought forward, that is to say, the bearing force of water resource has become widely concerned.
In this paper, the author puts forward the load index of water resource and the concept of carrying index and mode based on water- human beings relationship, according which, load index, carrying capacity and carrying index of water resource in Guanzhong region are calculated, and time- space difference of carrying capacity of water resource in this area is analyzed. Based on load index of water resource and human beings- water balance relation, population overloading district, human beings- water balance district and water volume abundance district are divided separately on the scale of district, city region and county region. This result has enriched the research theory of evaluation on carrying capacity of water resource. At the same time it is significant for the reasonable exploitation and utilization of water resource in Guanzhong region and exploration on the road of sustainable use of water in the whole province scientifically, safely and reliably facing the 21~(st) century. It is also of great meaning to ensure the sustainable development of the social economy of the whole province in the new century.
Through deep, scientific and comprehensive research, the following important results and conclusions are obtained:
(1) The potentiality of Water resources' development and utilization in Guanzhong region.
On district scale, 1997-2006 water resource carrying indexes in Guanzhong region are all above 10, being I grade. The utilization degree is very high; development potentiality is very small; development conditions are really difficult, and external basin water transfer is need if conditions are allowed. On city region scale, water resource carrying indexes of five prefecturals and municipals in Guanzhong region in 1997, 2001 and 2006 are all I grade. The utilization degree is high; development potentiality is very small; and external basin water transfer is needed to relieve the pressure of water resource if conditions are allowed. On county region scale, in 1997, of 43 jurisdictional districts and counties in Guanzhong region, there are 34 districts and counties whose water resource carrying indexes are I grade, 6 districts and counties are II grade, 2 are III grade and 1 is IV grade. In 2001, there are 35 districts and counties whose water resource carrying indexes belong to I grade, 2 districts and counties belong to II grade, 4 belong to III grade and 2 belong to V grade. In 2006, there are 36 districts and counties whose water resource carrying indexes belong to I grade, 3 districts and counties belong to II grade, 3 belong to III grade and 1 belongs to V grade. The potentiality of water resource in Guanzhong region is of distinct regional nature, utilization degree is relatively high and development potentiality is relatively small.
(2) Water resource carrying capacity in Guanzhong region.
On district scale, 1997 -2006 water resource carrying indexes in Guanzhong region are between 1.76-4.90, among which, water resource in 2003 is overloading, the in other years, water resource is excess loading. On city region scale, water resource carrying index of prefecturals and municipals in Guanzhong region in 1997, 2001 and 2006 are all above 1.33, all of which are overloading area, and the ration of overloading population is over 33%. Among these, 1997-2006 water resource in Xi'an city is overloading, and Xianyang city is severely overloading, Baoji city dropped from excess loading to overloading, and Tongchuan city and Weinan city are both dropped from severely overloading to excess loading. On county scale, of 43 jurisdictional districts and counties in Guanzhong region, most of which are water resource overloading area, and in 1997, there are 40 districts and counties being overloading area, 1 human being - water balance area and 2 being water resource abundance area. In 2001, there are 37 districts and counties being overloading area, 3 being human being - water balance area and 3 being water resource abundance area. In 2006, there are 35 districts and counties being overloading area, 5 being human being - water balance area and 3 being water resource abundance area.
The progress and innovation points of this paper are as follows:
First, based on the water resource load index, the utilization and development potentiality of water resource in Guanzhong region are evaluated systematically, and the balance relation of population-economy development and water resource in this study area is revealed quantitatively on the scale of district, city region and county region.
Second, on the scale of district, city region and county region, based on the water resource carrying capacity according to the national unified standards, the changes of population scale in time and space which could be supported continuously by the water resource of the study area are analyzed systematically, difference analysis of the population which could be supported and the actual population is conducted, and the quantity and scale of overloading or surplus population is determined in time and space.
Third, based on the water resource carrying index and the balance relation of human and water, the study area is divided to water resource overloading district, human beings -water balance district and water resource volume abundance district on the scale of district, city region and county region.
Forth, based on the water resource carrying status of the study area, several constructive suggestions are proposed.
本文运用水资源负载指数和基于人水关系的水资源承载力模型,测算了关中地区水资源负载指数、水资源承载力、水资源承载指数,依此对关中地区水资源承载力进行时空动态差异分析。根据水资源承载指数和人水平衡关系,在区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,分别划分人口超载地区、人水平衡地区和水量盈余地区。这一成果丰富了水资源承载力评价的研究理论,同时对关中地区水资源合理开发利用以及探索科学合理、安全可靠的面向21世纪的全省水资源可持续利用之路,对确保新世纪全省社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。
通过深入科学、综合的研究得出以下重要成果和结论:
(1)关中地区水资源开发利用潜力状况。
区域尺度上,1997-2006年关中地区水资源负载指数均高于10,为Ⅰ级,水资源利用程度很高,开发潜力很小,开发条件十分困难,有条件时需要外流域调水。市域尺度上,1997、2001、2006年关中地区五地市水资源负载指数均为Ⅰ级,水资源利用程度高,开发利用潜力很小,有条件时需要外流域调水缓解水资源压力。县域尺度上,关中地区所辖43个区县,1997年水资源负载指数为Ⅰ级的有34个区县,Ⅱ级的有6个区县,Ⅲ级的有2个区县,Ⅳ级的有1个区县:2001年,水资源负载指数属于Ⅰ级的有35个区县,Ⅱ的有2个区县,Ⅲ的有4个区县,Ⅴ的有2个区县;2006年,水资源负载指数属于Ⅰ的有36个区县,Ⅱ级的有3个区县,Ⅲ级的有3个区县,Ⅴ的有1个区县。关中地区水资源利用潜力具有明显的地域性,开发利用程度较高,开发潜力较小。
(2)关中地区水资源承载力状况。
区域尺度上,1997-2006年关中地区水资源承载指数介于1.76-4.90,其中2003年水资源承载状况为超载,其他年份水资源承载状况为过载。市域尺度上,关中地区各地市1997年、2001年和2006年水资源承载指数均高于1.33,全部为水资源超载区,人口超载率超过33%;其中1997-2006年西安市水资源承载状况为过载,咸阳市为严重超载,宝鸡市由过载降为超载,铜川和渭南市均由严重超载降为过载。县域尺度上,关中地区43个区县中多数为水资源超载区,其中1997年有40个区县为水资源超载区,1个为人水平衡区,2个为水资源盈余区;2001年有37个区县为水资源超载区,3个为人水平衡区,3个为水资源盈余区;2006年有35个区县为水资源超载区,5个为人水平衡区,3个为水资源盈余区。
本研究在以下方面有一定得进展和创新:
(1)基于水资源负载指数,从区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,系统评价了关中地区水资源利用程度与开发潜力,定量揭示了研究区的人口—经济发展与水资源的平衡关系。
(2)从区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,基于全国统一标准的水资源承载力对研究区水资源所能持续供养的人口规模在时间和空间上的变化进行系统分析,并对其所能供养的人口数量与实际人口进行差值分析,在时间和空间上确定研究区超载人口或者盈余人口的数量与规模。
(3)根据水资源承载指数和人水平衡关系,从区域尺度、市域尺度和县域尺度上,将研究区划分为水资源超载区、人水平衡区和水资源盈余区。
(4)本文基于研究区水资源承载状况提出几点建设性的建议。
As one of fundamental research subject in the study of sustainable development and safety strategy, bearing force of water resource has already aroused the high attention of academic circle and become a focus and hot spot in the science field of water resource at present since it was proposed by the researchers in our country during 1980s. The traditional mode of exploitation and utilization resulted in the increasingly poverty of water resource and the contamination of water environment and a series of other important problems. This severe reality has restricted the development of social economy, affected social stability and threatened the survival of human beings. Because of the crucial role of water resource in the development of social economy, in recent years, "using water resource to decide the production, using water resource to decide the development" is brought forward, that is to say, the bearing force of water resource has become widely concerned.
In this paper, the author puts forward the load index of water resource and the concept of carrying index and mode based on water- human beings relationship, according which, load index, carrying capacity and carrying index of water resource in Guanzhong region are calculated, and time- space difference of carrying capacity of water resource in this area is analyzed. Based on load index of water resource and human beings- water balance relation, population overloading district, human beings- water balance district and water volume abundance district are divided separately on the scale of district, city region and county region. This result has enriched the research theory of evaluation on carrying capacity of water resource. At the same time it is significant for the reasonable exploitation and utilization of water resource in Guanzhong region and exploration on the road of sustainable use of water in the whole province scientifically, safely and reliably facing the 21~(st) century. It is also of great meaning to ensure the sustainable development of the social economy of the whole province in the new century.
Through deep, scientific and comprehensive research, the following important results and conclusions are obtained:
(1) The potentiality of Water resources' development and utilization in Guanzhong region.
On district scale, 1997-2006 water resource carrying indexes in Guanzhong region are all above 10, being I grade. The utilization degree is very high; development potentiality is very small; development conditions are really difficult, and external basin water transfer is need if conditions are allowed. On city region scale, water resource carrying indexes of five prefecturals and municipals in Guanzhong region in 1997, 2001 and 2006 are all I grade. The utilization degree is high; development potentiality is very small; and external basin water transfer is needed to relieve the pressure of water resource if conditions are allowed. On county region scale, in 1997, of 43 jurisdictional districts and counties in Guanzhong region, there are 34 districts and counties whose water resource carrying indexes are I grade, 6 districts and counties are II grade, 2 are III grade and 1 is IV grade. In 2001, there are 35 districts and counties whose water resource carrying indexes belong to I grade, 2 districts and counties belong to II grade, 4 belong to III grade and 2 belong to V grade. In 2006, there are 36 districts and counties whose water resource carrying indexes belong to I grade, 3 districts and counties belong to II grade, 3 belong to III grade and 1 belongs to V grade. The potentiality of water resource in Guanzhong region is of distinct regional nature, utilization degree is relatively high and development potentiality is relatively small.
(2) Water resource carrying capacity in Guanzhong region.
On district scale, 1997 -2006 water resource carrying indexes in Guanzhong region are between 1.76-4.90, among which, water resource in 2003 is overloading, the in other years, water resource is excess loading. On city region scale, water resource carrying index of prefecturals and municipals in Guanzhong region in 1997, 2001 and 2006 are all above 1.33, all of which are overloading area, and the ration of overloading population is over 33%. Among these, 1997-2006 water resource in Xi'an city is overloading, and Xianyang city is severely overloading, Baoji city dropped from excess loading to overloading, and Tongchuan city and Weinan city are both dropped from severely overloading to excess loading. On county scale, of 43 jurisdictional districts and counties in Guanzhong region, most of which are water resource overloading area, and in 1997, there are 40 districts and counties being overloading area, 1 human being - water balance area and 2 being water resource abundance area. In 2001, there are 37 districts and counties being overloading area, 3 being human being - water balance area and 3 being water resource abundance area. In 2006, there are 35 districts and counties being overloading area, 5 being human being - water balance area and 3 being water resource abundance area.
The progress and innovation points of this paper are as follows:
First, based on the water resource load index, the utilization and development potentiality of water resource in Guanzhong region are evaluated systematically, and the balance relation of population-economy development and water resource in this study area is revealed quantitatively on the scale of district, city region and county region.
Second, on the scale of district, city region and county region, based on the water resource carrying capacity according to the national unified standards, the changes of population scale in time and space which could be supported continuously by the water resource of the study area are analyzed systematically, difference analysis of the population which could be supported and the actual population is conducted, and the quantity and scale of overloading or surplus population is determined in time and space.
Third, based on the water resource carrying index and the balance relation of human and water, the study area is divided to water resource overloading district, human beings -water balance district and water resource volume abundance district on the scale of district, city region and county region.
Forth, based on the water resource carrying status of the study area, several constructive suggestions are proposed.
引文
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