济宁市地下水过量开采修复措施及风险评价方法研究
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摘要
因缺少充分的数据资料，用传统的方法很难进行地下水管理方面的研究。因此，本文在前人研究的基础上，用两种方案相组合的方法，运用Visual MODFLOW、GIS、Surfer软件，从水质和水量的两个方面，来评价地下水系统对减少地下水开采量和开展人工回灌措施的响应，以及由此所降低的风险，并首次提出一种同时考虑降低地下水水质、水量风险的评价方法，该评价方法简便，对开展不同地下水超采情况下的风险管理和决策分析具有一定的指导作用，并为进一步开展地下水库风险分析奠定了基础。
本文在建立准确刻画地下水系统物理、化学和水文地质特征的水文地质概念模型的基础上，借助Visual MODFLOW软件，用试错法对模拟期(1999～2001)内的模型参数进行率定，并用验正证的模型对研究区的地下水流场、污染物浓度及水均衡要素进行分析，从而更深刻地认识济宁市地下水系统复杂的水文地质特性。此外，灵敏度分析结果表明，与渗透系数、储水系数相比，模型对给水和度、降水入渗补给系数较敏感。采用GIS中的指标迭置方法，选取含水层的净补给、含水层初始厚度、地下水位降深、开采强度4个因子，评价了对地下水超采程度进行了评价。结果表明：占研究区面积5.53％的中部地区，超采程度最严重；西部和南部超采程度最轻。其分析其原因得如下：西部和南部的地下水补给主要为大气降水入渗、灌溉水回渗和地表水体(京杭运河和南四湖)的入渗补给，且地下水开采强度只有0.1954×10~4m~3／d；而市中区的开采强度高达21.096×10~4m~3／d。
在进行人工回灌分析过程中，当将河床沉积物渗透系数增加到20 m／d，降水入渗补给量与回灌井的注水量分别为150 m~3／d和2000 m~3／d，而开采量为3417.69×10~4 m3／a时，地下水位平均每年上升6.497m。而水位恢复后的含水层水质很大程度上取决于回灌水的水质，一般情况下，世界卫生组织(WHO)的标准中规定的Cl~-浓度为200mg／l(GB／T 14848-93中规定的Ⅱ二类水的标准是＜150 mg╱l)，总硬度最大限度为500 mg╱l，但在一些地区也有超过该值的特例。，本文对此进行了分析与研究。
通过减少开采量方案的实施，不但没有增加含水层的储量不但没有增加反而减少了地下水供应量。对仅采取减少开采量的方案(削减幅度分别为5％、10％、15％、25％和50％)，地下水位的上升速率均小于2.36 m／a。当采取减少开采量与实施人工回灌相结合的方案时，水位上升速率大于2.36 m／a。但当开采量减少15％时，在增大含水层储存量上两种方案在增大含水层储存量上并没有显著明显差别。在所采取的方案中，减少开采量引起的风险大大高于减少开采量与回灌相结合的风险，而减少开采量与人工回灌相结合的风险又大大高于回灌优质水的风险。此外，当减少开采量22％与采用人工回灌相结合，同时考虑市中区降落漏斗区的水量和水质时，此方案成为降低风险的最佳方案，该方案可增加水量0.46×10~8m~3／a。
在回灌水的Cl~-浓度和总硬度分别取界限值200 mg╱l和最大允许值500 mg╱l的基础上进行风险评价，评价结果表明：减少开采量并实施人工回灌可导致空间的风险在地面沉降区增大，西南地区则是因高硬度引起的。另一方面，用统计概率风险评价方法分析总硬度时，两种方案的评价结果差别不明显，且超过总硬度500 mg／l的风险均为0.67，然而当两种方案中均值分别为546.96 mg╱l和545.16 mg╱l，并考虑概率估计中因不确定性而产生的风险基础上，得出的风险均为50％。在减小开采量方案中，17％和5.6％的观测井(共18眼井)表明超过总硬度500mg╱Ll的概率分别为0.2(即20％?)和0.3；而在第二个方案中11％和5.6％的观测井得到的概率分别为0.2和0.5。
根据风险评价结果绘制风险分区图，实施人工回灌时，风险较小(0～4分)的地区占研究区的25％，风险中等(4～7分)的地区占18.75％，风险较大(大于7分)的地区占56.25％。采取回灌与减采相结合的措施时，相应的百分比分别为30％(0～4分)、23.08％(4～7分)、46.15％(大于7分)。通过与超过临界值的概率方法相比，当以主要界限值为评价标准时，采用人工回灌措施为最优方案，而以超过均值和二分位法概率为评价标准时，采用减少开采量与人工回灌相结合的措施为最优方案。但当考虑水处理造价昂贵，保持回灌水质不低于GB／T14848-93所规定的Ⅱ类水标准时，是最经济且可行的方案。采取人工回灌与减采相结合的措施可减小22％的风险，且京杭运河沿线的南水北调工程可以作为回灌水源。
本文在考虑含水层水文地质和水文地球化学特征等影响因素的基础上，用降低风险的评价方法成功地对地下水水量和水质的修复方案进行了评价，并绘制了风险分区图，方法简便，评价结果可有效地为各级风险管理和环境决策提供科学依据。
In this study, an attempt is made to formulate a new methodology for the first time for qualitative and quantitative groundwater risk reduced assessment (RRA), for risk management and environmental decision making at different levels of groundwater overdraft remediation. In the absence of relevant and adequate data, rather than use one traditional method for groundwater management studies, this new approach envisaged that a combination of two or more methods can relatively give a better understanding of the possible effects of remedial actions in overdrafted aquifer, and significantly limits risk in terms of the results so obtained. Based on elimination procedure similar to optimization techniques, this scenarios-based risk analysis new method couples the scenarios, analytical and probabilistic approaches to assess the potential groundwater risk due to overdraft remedial actions, and it is achieved by coupling Visual MODFLOW with GIS and SUFFER software to evaluate the impact of reduced pumping and artificial recharge on groundwater system qualitatively and quantitatively. It is an extension of the previous efforts.
Based on the simplifications of the conceptual model, to represent the physical, chemical and hydrogeological properties of the groundwater system, a computer code Visual MODFLW model was calibrated by trial and error method until a "goodness-of-fit" was achieved between the observed field data and simulated ones i.e. heads and contaminant concentrations for the 1999-2001. Upon verification, it was then used to simulate hydraulic head distribution, contaminant concentrations and water budget in the model domain in order to understand the complex chemical and hydrogeological groundwater system in Jining city. The model is more sensitive to specific yield and recharge than hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient. An assessment of groundwater overdraft severity by index and overlay techniques using GIS and based on net recharge rate, the initial aquifer saturation thickness, the drawdown, and the pumping rate density shows that the central part which represents about 5.53% of the total area is the most overdrafted area, whereas sections of the western and southern part of the study area are the least overdrafted. The western and southern sections are characterized with high rate of recharge from both precipitation, irrigation fields, and surface water bodies (the Great Canal and Nansi Lake), but low abstraction rate of 0.1954×10~4 m~3/d, while the city centre has the highest abstraction rate of 21.096×10~4 m~3/d .This finding enabled the location and quantification of the most risky area needing urgent remedial action.
Artificial recharge by modification of the hydraulic conductivity (K) value of the bed material to 20 m/d, through infiltration and injection wells with a recharge rate of 150 m~3/d and 2000 m~3/d respectively, averagely increases the water level by 6.497 m/a from a decline rate of 2.36 m/a, with an average annual groundwater increased of 3417.69×10~4 m~3/a On the other hand, the quality of water used for recharge purpose greatly determines the recovered groundwater quality which varies spatially in the study area, but generally, the Cl~- concentrations is within the world heath organization standard (WHO) of 200 mg/l (Grade 2 groundwater quality standards, GB/T14848-93 of < 150 mg/l) and the total hardness TH maximum allowable limit of 500 mg/l is surpassed in some cases. An explanation is given herein.
Reduction in pumping increases the amount of water in the aquifer storage and water level. In all cases of reduced pumping without artificial recharge (5%, 10%, 15% and 25%), the water level increase rate is less than 2.36 m/a, however in combination with artificial recharge, more than 2.36 m/a groundwater level increase rate is observed, hence addressing the environmental restoration issue with significant water volume stored within the given time limit; in both cases there is no significant difference in increased volume stored for reduced pumping above 15%. The risk due to reduced pumping is more than risk due to reduced pumping with recharge, which is also more than risks due to recharge only with a better water quality. The 22% reduced pumping with artificial recharge seems to be the best risk reduced option as it offers an optimum (trade off) option in terms of both quantity and quality combined for the study area. At this point the annual volume increased stabilized at about 4600 x 104 m~3/a.
Further risk assessment based on the ratios of concentrations of Cl~- and TH in recovered water to that of desired limit (200 mg/l) and maximum permissible limit (500 mg/l) for Cl~- and TH respectively shows that, reduced pumping with artificial recharge leads to a spatial higher risk than recharge only especially within the cone of depression, and south-western parts and this can be attributed to the high TH concentrations. On the other hand, in analysing TH using the statistical probabilistic risk assessment approach, there is no significant difference between the risks under the artificial recharge and artificial recharge with reduced pumping, as the probability of exceeding the critical TH concentration of 500 mg/l in both cases is about 0.67; however based on their average values of 546.96 mg/l and 545.16 mg/l respectively, and given the uncertainties and risks associated with probability estimation, one can accept the almost 50% risk for the two scenarios. About 17% and 5.6% of the concentrations observation wells (OB) indicate a probability of more than 0.2 and 0.5 of exceeding the WHO critical TH concentration of 500 mg/l for recharge only scenario respectively. However, for both recharge and reduced pumping, only about 11% and 5.6 % of the OB wells indicate a probability of more than 0.2 and 0.5 respectively of exceeding the WHO critical TH concentration of 500 mg/l.
Using the GIS based Natural Break Jenks classification, recharge only has 25% of the study area having low reduced risk (score 0-4), 18.75% having medium risk reduced (score 4-7), and 56.25% having a high risk reduced (score more than 7). For the recharge with reduced pumping, 30 % of the study area having low reduced risk (score 0-4), 23.08 % having medium risk reduced (score 4-7), and 46.15 % having a high risk reduced (score more than 7). Compared with the probability of exceeding allowable limit approach, while the artificial recharge only remedial action stands the best option based on critical limit criteria, the artificial recharge with reduced pumping seems best option based on mean and second quartile probability of exceeding limit criteria. But given the high cost of recharge water treatment, it is only economical and feasible to maintain the recharging water quality within Grade 2 of the groundwater quality standards of GB/T14848-93, and combine recharge with reduced pumping at or about 22%. The proposed South-North water transfer project along the Great Canal can be effectively used for the recharge purpose.
The RRA approach takes into consideration both the hydrogeological and hydogeochemical aquifer controlling factors. Generally this research successfully formulated a simple new methodology of quantitative and qualitative risk reduced assessment (RRA) of groundwater remedial options, which can be effectively used for risk management and environmental decision making.
本文在建立准确刻画地下水系统物理、化学和水文地质特征的水文地质概念模型的基础上，借助Visual MODFLOW软件，用试错法对模拟期(1999～2001)内的模型参数进行率定，并用验正证的模型对研究区的地下水流场、污染物浓度及水均衡要素进行分析，从而更深刻地认识济宁市地下水系统复杂的水文地质特性。此外，灵敏度分析结果表明，与渗透系数、储水系数相比，模型对给水和度、降水入渗补给系数较敏感。采用GIS中的指标迭置方法，选取含水层的净补给、含水层初始厚度、地下水位降深、开采强度4个因子，评价了对地下水超采程度进行了评价。结果表明：占研究区面积5.53％的中部地区，超采程度最严重；西部和南部超采程度最轻。其分析其原因得如下：西部和南部的地下水补给主要为大气降水入渗、灌溉水回渗和地表水体(京杭运河和南四湖)的入渗补给，且地下水开采强度只有0.1954×10~4m~3／d；而市中区的开采强度高达21.096×10~4m~3／d。
在进行人工回灌分析过程中，当将河床沉积物渗透系数增加到20 m／d，降水入渗补给量与回灌井的注水量分别为150 m~3／d和2000 m~3／d，而开采量为3417.69×10~4 m3／a时，地下水位平均每年上升6.497m。而水位恢复后的含水层水质很大程度上取决于回灌水的水质，一般情况下，世界卫生组织(WHO)的标准中规定的Cl~-浓度为200mg／l(GB／T 14848-93中规定的Ⅱ二类水的标准是＜150 mg╱l)，总硬度最大限度为500 mg╱l，但在一些地区也有超过该值的特例。，本文对此进行了分析与研究。
通过减少开采量方案的实施，不但没有增加含水层的储量不但没有增加反而减少了地下水供应量。对仅采取减少开采量的方案(削减幅度分别为5％、10％、15％、25％和50％)，地下水位的上升速率均小于2.36 m／a。当采取减少开采量与实施人工回灌相结合的方案时，水位上升速率大于2.36 m／a。但当开采量减少15％时，在增大含水层储存量上两种方案在增大含水层储存量上并没有显著明显差别。在所采取的方案中，减少开采量引起的风险大大高于减少开采量与回灌相结合的风险，而减少开采量与人工回灌相结合的风险又大大高于回灌优质水的风险。此外，当减少开采量22％与采用人工回灌相结合，同时考虑市中区降落漏斗区的水量和水质时，此方案成为降低风险的最佳方案，该方案可增加水量0.46×10~8m~3／a。
在回灌水的Cl~-浓度和总硬度分别取界限值200 mg╱l和最大允许值500 mg╱l的基础上进行风险评价，评价结果表明：减少开采量并实施人工回灌可导致空间的风险在地面沉降区增大，西南地区则是因高硬度引起的。另一方面，用统计概率风险评价方法分析总硬度时，两种方案的评价结果差别不明显，且超过总硬度500 mg／l的风险均为0.67，然而当两种方案中均值分别为546.96 mg╱l和545.16 mg╱l，并考虑概率估计中因不确定性而产生的风险基础上，得出的风险均为50％。在减小开采量方案中，17％和5.6％的观测井(共18眼井)表明超过总硬度500mg╱Ll的概率分别为0.2(即20％?)和0.3；而在第二个方案中11％和5.6％的观测井得到的概率分别为0.2和0.5。
根据风险评价结果绘制风险分区图，实施人工回灌时，风险较小(0～4分)的地区占研究区的25％，风险中等(4～7分)的地区占18.75％，风险较大(大于7分)的地区占56.25％。采取回灌与减采相结合的措施时，相应的百分比分别为30％(0～4分)、23.08％(4～7分)、46.15％(大于7分)。通过与超过临界值的概率方法相比，当以主要界限值为评价标准时，采用人工回灌措施为最优方案，而以超过均值和二分位法概率为评价标准时，采用减少开采量与人工回灌相结合的措施为最优方案。但当考虑水处理造价昂贵，保持回灌水质不低于GB／T14848-93所规定的Ⅱ类水标准时，是最经济且可行的方案。采取人工回灌与减采相结合的措施可减小22％的风险，且京杭运河沿线的南水北调工程可以作为回灌水源。
本文在考虑含水层水文地质和水文地球化学特征等影响因素的基础上，用降低风险的评价方法成功地对地下水水量和水质的修复方案进行了评价，并绘制了风险分区图，方法简便，评价结果可有效地为各级风险管理和环境决策提供科学依据。
In this study, an attempt is made to formulate a new methodology for the first time for qualitative and quantitative groundwater risk reduced assessment (RRA), for risk management and environmental decision making at different levels of groundwater overdraft remediation. In the absence of relevant and adequate data, rather than use one traditional method for groundwater management studies, this new approach envisaged that a combination of two or more methods can relatively give a better understanding of the possible effects of remedial actions in overdrafted aquifer, and significantly limits risk in terms of the results so obtained. Based on elimination procedure similar to optimization techniques, this scenarios-based risk analysis new method couples the scenarios, analytical and probabilistic approaches to assess the potential groundwater risk due to overdraft remedial actions, and it is achieved by coupling Visual MODFLOW with GIS and SUFFER software to evaluate the impact of reduced pumping and artificial recharge on groundwater system qualitatively and quantitatively. It is an extension of the previous efforts.
Based on the simplifications of the conceptual model, to represent the physical, chemical and hydrogeological properties of the groundwater system, a computer code Visual MODFLW model was calibrated by trial and error method until a "goodness-of-fit" was achieved between the observed field data and simulated ones i.e. heads and contaminant concentrations for the 1999-2001. Upon verification, it was then used to simulate hydraulic head distribution, contaminant concentrations and water budget in the model domain in order to understand the complex chemical and hydrogeological groundwater system in Jining city. The model is more sensitive to specific yield and recharge than hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient. An assessment of groundwater overdraft severity by index and overlay techniques using GIS and based on net recharge rate, the initial aquifer saturation thickness, the drawdown, and the pumping rate density shows that the central part which represents about 5.53% of the total area is the most overdrafted area, whereas sections of the western and southern part of the study area are the least overdrafted. The western and southern sections are characterized with high rate of recharge from both precipitation, irrigation fields, and surface water bodies (the Great Canal and Nansi Lake), but low abstraction rate of 0.1954×10~4 m~3/d, while the city centre has the highest abstraction rate of 21.096×10~4 m~3/d .This finding enabled the location and quantification of the most risky area needing urgent remedial action.
Artificial recharge by modification of the hydraulic conductivity (K) value of the bed material to 20 m/d, through infiltration and injection wells with a recharge rate of 150 m~3/d and 2000 m~3/d respectively, averagely increases the water level by 6.497 m/a from a decline rate of 2.36 m/a, with an average annual groundwater increased of 3417.69×10~4 m~3/a On the other hand, the quality of water used for recharge purpose greatly determines the recovered groundwater quality which varies spatially in the study area, but generally, the Cl~- concentrations is within the world heath organization standard (WHO) of 200 mg/l (Grade 2 groundwater quality standards, GB/T14848-93 of < 150 mg/l) and the total hardness TH maximum allowable limit of 500 mg/l is surpassed in some cases. An explanation is given herein.
Reduction in pumping increases the amount of water in the aquifer storage and water level. In all cases of reduced pumping without artificial recharge (5%, 10%, 15% and 25%), the water level increase rate is less than 2.36 m/a, however in combination with artificial recharge, more than 2.36 m/a groundwater level increase rate is observed, hence addressing the environmental restoration issue with significant water volume stored within the given time limit; in both cases there is no significant difference in increased volume stored for reduced pumping above 15%. The risk due to reduced pumping is more than risk due to reduced pumping with recharge, which is also more than risks due to recharge only with a better water quality. The 22% reduced pumping with artificial recharge seems to be the best risk reduced option as it offers an optimum (trade off) option in terms of both quantity and quality combined for the study area. At this point the annual volume increased stabilized at about 4600 x 104 m~3/a.
Further risk assessment based on the ratios of concentrations of Cl~- and TH in recovered water to that of desired limit (200 mg/l) and maximum permissible limit (500 mg/l) for Cl~- and TH respectively shows that, reduced pumping with artificial recharge leads to a spatial higher risk than recharge only especially within the cone of depression, and south-western parts and this can be attributed to the high TH concentrations. On the other hand, in analysing TH using the statistical probabilistic risk assessment approach, there is no significant difference between the risks under the artificial recharge and artificial recharge with reduced pumping, as the probability of exceeding the critical TH concentration of 500 mg/l in both cases is about 0.67; however based on their average values of 546.96 mg/l and 545.16 mg/l respectively, and given the uncertainties and risks associated with probability estimation, one can accept the almost 50% risk for the two scenarios. About 17% and 5.6% of the concentrations observation wells (OB) indicate a probability of more than 0.2 and 0.5 of exceeding the WHO critical TH concentration of 500 mg/l for recharge only scenario respectively. However, for both recharge and reduced pumping, only about 11% and 5.6 % of the OB wells indicate a probability of more than 0.2 and 0.5 respectively of exceeding the WHO critical TH concentration of 500 mg/l.
Using the GIS based Natural Break Jenks classification, recharge only has 25% of the study area having low reduced risk (score 0-4), 18.75% having medium risk reduced (score 4-7), and 56.25% having a high risk reduced (score more than 7). For the recharge with reduced pumping, 30 % of the study area having low reduced risk (score 0-4), 23.08 % having medium risk reduced (score 4-7), and 46.15 % having a high risk reduced (score more than 7). Compared with the probability of exceeding allowable limit approach, while the artificial recharge only remedial action stands the best option based on critical limit criteria, the artificial recharge with reduced pumping seems best option based on mean and second quartile probability of exceeding limit criteria. But given the high cost of recharge water treatment, it is only economical and feasible to maintain the recharging water quality within Grade 2 of the groundwater quality standards of GB/T14848-93, and combine recharge with reduced pumping at or about 22%. The proposed South-North water transfer project along the Great Canal can be effectively used for the recharge purpose.
The RRA approach takes into consideration both the hydrogeological and hydogeochemical aquifer controlling factors. Generally this research successfully formulated a simple new methodology of quantitative and qualitative risk reduced assessment (RRA) of groundwater remedial options, which can be effectively used for risk management and environmental decision making.
引文
[1] Bear J., 1979. Hydraulics of Groundwater. McGraw-Hill Inc, London
[2] Freeze, R. A., & J. A. Cherry, 1979. Groundwater, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ
[3] Todd, D. K., & L. W. Mays, 2005. Groundwater Hydrology, 3rd Edition. John Wiley & Sons Inc., NJ.
[4] Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, & P. R. Ehrlich, 1996. Human Appropriation of Renewable Fresh Water, Science, 271(5250): 785-788
[5] Wolfgang, K., B. Peter, S. Tobias, & B. Philip, 2003. Sustainable groundwater management problems and scientific tools, Episode. 26(4): 279-284
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