华北平原地下水系统变化规律研究
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摘要
华北平原地下水长期大规模开发引发了一系列环境地质问题，地下水均衡状态和地下水流动模式明显发生了改变。研究地下水系统天然状态下的流动模式，人类活动对地下水均衡要素的改变规律，以及地下水系统对地下水开采的响应等科学问题，是华北平原地下水资源可持续开发的重要基础，也是水文地质学的前沿问题之一。
论文首先利用地下水流数值模拟，从地下水年龄结构入手，对天然状态下华北平原的地下水流场，以及末次冰期以来海平面上升对地下水年龄结构和地下水流动模式的影响进行了研究。基于模型弥散参数和孔隙度灵敏度分析，利用碳-14年龄对模型进行了校正和参数率定。模拟深层地下水年龄在冀中拗陷两侧的分布特征反映出不同的地下水流动模式，山前平原和中部平原之间较大的地形势差和水力梯度造成其间发育一地下水系统，而滨海平原的地下水年龄明显受到海平面上升的影响，反映其地下水流动模式的演变更大程度上受海平面变化的控制。
地下水储存量作为陆地水循环要素的关键项，越来越受到水文地质研究者的重视。在天然状态水流模式的基础上，论文利用地下水流数值模型对华北平原大规模开采前后的地下水流场特征演变进行了模拟，重点研究了地下水储存量的变化过程和影响因素。华北平原自70年代大规模开采至今，地下水储存量年均减少量约为40亿m3，但受到气候变化影响，较少速率在各历史时期不尽相同，最近10年（1997–2008）受到降水明显减少影响而使得地下水存储量为减少速率最快的时期。现状地下水补给量与天然状态下地下水补给相比，增加了近30mm/yr，这部分增加的入渗量部分是由于潜水面下降造成的地下水蒸发减少，另一部分是来自地下水灌溉的补给。然而，华北平原绝大部分农田灌溉来自地下水，地下水灌溉对地下水储存量的影响最终仍是负效应。做为华北平原关键水循环要素之一，地表蒸散发在上述水流模型中不能很好模拟和反映。本文利用华北平原常规地面气象观测数据，选用基于互补关系的蒸散发模型，对华北平原过去近50年（1960–2008）的蒸散发变化情况进行了计算。蒸散发在季节和年际尺度上与降水量高度正相关，地下水灌溉明显增加了夏季蒸散发，而在多年尺度上呈现下降趋势，并且主要受风速减小的影响。说明华北平原的蒸散发仍受限于能量和水量条件，且受人类活动（灌溉）影响。假定华北平原的净地表径流可忽略不计，用蒸散发与降水之差可代表华北平原年际尺度上的地下水储存量变化，过去50年，华北平原累积地下水储存量减少约2200亿m3。
作为地下水可持续利用评价的另一个重要因素，地下水补给量往往难以准确估计，而华北平原由于地下水开采引起的包气带厚度变化，使得地下水的补给过程也更加复杂。前人对华北平原地下水补给过程的研究主要集中在小尺度（典型区或点）范围的地下水补给（采用环境同位素，地下水年龄梯度等），而大尺度（区域）的地下水补给仍多采用渗透系数估算，未考虑非饱和带增厚对地下水补给的影响。论文采用土壤水均衡模型、非饱和带水流模型和地下水三维水流模型，三层模型相耦合的方式，对华北平原区域地下水补给量、非饱和带储存量变化和非饱和带中地下水滞留时间进行了估算。研究表明，土壤质地类型对地下水补给存在较大影响，但并不是地下水补给的控制因素，地下水补给量仍受控于降水量的时空变化。模拟条件下，由于非饱和带对地下水补给的缓冲和滞后作用，非饱和带增厚对地下水入渗补给系数影响不大，但随之带来的非饱和带储存量增大则明显造成补给量减少，而对地下水补给明显的滞后作用与土壤质地有关。
针对人类活动对华北平原地下水系统的影响，从区域地下水年龄结构、地下水均衡和流场分析入手，利用数值模拟方法对地下水开采对地下水年龄结构的影响进行了模拟。深层地下水均衡显示开采条件下深层地下水主要补给来源是浅层含水层的越流补充与伴随地面沉降的含水层系统压缩释水。水均衡及流场分析均表明深层地下水侧向流入补给量非常有限。深层地下水的开采，虽一定程度上加大了侧向流入量，最主要是增大了垂向水力梯度，地下水径流方式由天然状态下的水平向流动为主转变为垂向分量占主导地位。
Intensive groundwater development in the North China Plain (NCP) is evidencedby large scale groundwater depletion. Spatiotemporal variability in groundwaterdepletion is evaluated using groundwater modeling. The groundwater model wascalibrated for both predevelopment (1960s) and post-development (1960s–2008)conditions. Initial recharge estimates and hydraulic parameters were derived from theliterature and recharge was modified through calibration. The steady-state flow modelrepresenting the natural conditions was calibrated using water level contours in1959.The transient flow model for the post-development period was calibrated using waterlevel contours in1975,1984,2001, as well as105and72annual water level timeseries from1993through2008in the shallow and deep aquifers, respectively. Modelresults indicate that mean groundwater depletion was~4km3/yr from1970through2008；however, depletion varied with time:~2.5km3/yr in the1970s,~4.0in the1980s,~2.0in1990–1996；and~5.0in1997–2008. Annual groundwater depletionrates are constrained by precipitation: they were lowest during high precipitationyears and highest during low precipitation years. Groundwater hydrograph data from117time series were used to detect seasonal variations in depletion, indicatinggreatest depletion during the spring and depletion is principally by groundwaterpumpage in seasonal scale. Mean annual calculated recharge is~120mm/yr and isfocused in the piedmont district (200–350mm/yr) and much lower in the central andcoastal plains (50–100mm/yr). The calibrated model provides the best available toolto assess potential sustainability strategies that can be applied to NCP.
As a critical water discharge term in regional scale water balance, accurateestimation of evapotranspiration is therefore important for estimation of water storagechange and sustainable water resources management. Using meteorological data from23stations, three models based on the complementary relationship are evaluatedagainst of estimates of evapotranspiration derived from regional water balance over1993to2008in the NCP. The CRAE model is then used to evaluate the actualevapotranspiration variation for the period from1960to2008. The estimated evapotranspiration is highly correlated with precipitation in seasonal scale, and isgenerally higher than precipitation when annual precipitation is less than500mm.The long term decreasing trend in the actual evapotranspiration can be explained bydeclining in sunshine duration and wind speed. Calculated average annual waterstorage change, represented by the difference between evapotranspiration andprecipitation, was approximately36mm, or4.8km3in the NCP. Over past50years,the cumulative groundwater storage depletion was~1,700mm, or220km3in theNCP. The difference between precipitation and actual evapotranspiration indicates anannual precipitation threshold of approximately500–600mm and about8%ofprecipitation above this threshold will potentially become recharge.
Accurate estimation of groundwater recharge is important for sustainablegroundwater utilization, and proper management of groundwater resources.Groundwater recharge remains one of the principal uncertainties in the water balanceof the North China Plain (NCP). Understanding impacts of climate, surface conditionssuch as soil properties and land use, and groundwater withdrawal on groundwaterrecharge is essential for accurate estimation of recharge, and characterization of thewater balance. In this study, spatial and temporal variability of recharge wereevaluated by integrating soil water balance and one-dimensional unsaturated flowmodels. Estimated recharge was further validated/assessed using a saturated zoneflow model. Soil hydraulic parameters were estimated using pedotransfer functions.Monthly simulation of recharge over16years (1993–2008) was performed across theentire NCP. Simulated mean annual recharge is~150mm across the plain,representing18%of mean annual precipitation+irrigation, and ranging from0to360mm in the piedmont area to0to260mm in the central and coastal plain. Theseamounts broadly agree with previous recharge estimates derived using differentmethods (e.g, environmental tracers). Variability in soil texture from clay to loamysand resulted in a large range of recharge rates, but this was not the primary factorcontrolling the amount of recharge；variation within soil classes was greater thanbetween soil classes. The modeling approach allowed assessment of the effect of unsaturated zone thickness (reaching10s of meters in many parts of the NCP) onrecharge. Increasing thickness of the unsaturated zone has little effect on the longterm mean annual recharge, however it has an important control on the lag-timebetween infiltration and reaching the water table (e.g, reaching up to8years for athickness of30m in loam soils)；and the delay varies with soil type. A sensitivityanalysis allowed assessment of model outputs dependence on particular parameters；initial water content was the most sensitive parameter, indicating that antecedent soilmoisture is a key control on recharge. This work provides information towards acomprehensive assessment of groundwater recharge in the NCP；insight into theimportant parameters controlling recharge and a further set of recharge estimates forcomparison with those derived by different methodologies.
Groundwater in the deep aquifer beneath an intermediate, brackish flow zoneacross the central and coastal parts of the North China Plain (NCP) is the region’sprimary water resource for irrigation and domestic use. Accurate information aboutthe groundwater age, recharge and flow regime, and its alteration by extensivegroundwater abstraction is necessary for water resource sustainability andvulnerability assessment. This paper presents the application of direct simulation ofgroundwater mean ages to the NCP aquifer through the use of a solute transportmodel, calibrated with the aid of previously reported carbon-14data, and water levelobservations from the pre-and post-development period. This provides an effectivemeans to constrain the regional flow model and improve the estimation of flowparameters, including recharge rates. The mean recharge estimated for thepredevelopment period is85mm/yr, which compares reasonably well with previousestimates. The simulated age distribution and the calibrated flow model are then usedto characterize the flow regime under natural conditions and an altered state bygroundwater pumping. The model results indicate that simulated groundwater ages inthe NCP are affected by both paleo-hydrologic conditions and extensive groundwaterpumping. Flow path analysis, water budget calculations and simulated groundwaterage distributions show that lateral flow to the deep aquifer in the NCP is limited and that the primary inflow is downward leakage from the shallow aquifer, which isenhanced by the extensive development of the deep aquifer. Transient flow modelingreflecting the post-development conditions confirms the hypothesis that widelydistributed vertical recharge and resulting flow have become the dominant processesshaping the flow patterns both in the shallow and deep aquifers in the NCP.
论文首先利用地下水流数值模拟，从地下水年龄结构入手，对天然状态下华北平原的地下水流场，以及末次冰期以来海平面上升对地下水年龄结构和地下水流动模式的影响进行了研究。基于模型弥散参数和孔隙度灵敏度分析，利用碳-14年龄对模型进行了校正和参数率定。模拟深层地下水年龄在冀中拗陷两侧的分布特征反映出不同的地下水流动模式，山前平原和中部平原之间较大的地形势差和水力梯度造成其间发育一地下水系统，而滨海平原的地下水年龄明显受到海平面上升的影响，反映其地下水流动模式的演变更大程度上受海平面变化的控制。
地下水储存量作为陆地水循环要素的关键项，越来越受到水文地质研究者的重视。在天然状态水流模式的基础上，论文利用地下水流数值模型对华北平原大规模开采前后的地下水流场特征演变进行了模拟，重点研究了地下水储存量的变化过程和影响因素。华北平原自70年代大规模开采至今，地下水储存量年均减少量约为40亿m3，但受到气候变化影响，较少速率在各历史时期不尽相同，最近10年（1997–2008）受到降水明显减少影响而使得地下水存储量为减少速率最快的时期。现状地下水补给量与天然状态下地下水补给相比，增加了近30mm/yr，这部分增加的入渗量部分是由于潜水面下降造成的地下水蒸发减少，另一部分是来自地下水灌溉的补给。然而，华北平原绝大部分农田灌溉来自地下水，地下水灌溉对地下水储存量的影响最终仍是负效应。做为华北平原关键水循环要素之一，地表蒸散发在上述水流模型中不能很好模拟和反映。本文利用华北平原常规地面气象观测数据，选用基于互补关系的蒸散发模型，对华北平原过去近50年（1960–2008）的蒸散发变化情况进行了计算。蒸散发在季节和年际尺度上与降水量高度正相关，地下水灌溉明显增加了夏季蒸散发，而在多年尺度上呈现下降趋势，并且主要受风速减小的影响。说明华北平原的蒸散发仍受限于能量和水量条件，且受人类活动（灌溉）影响。假定华北平原的净地表径流可忽略不计，用蒸散发与降水之差可代表华北平原年际尺度上的地下水储存量变化，过去50年，华北平原累积地下水储存量减少约2200亿m3。
作为地下水可持续利用评价的另一个重要因素，地下水补给量往往难以准确估计，而华北平原由于地下水开采引起的包气带厚度变化，使得地下水的补给过程也更加复杂。前人对华北平原地下水补给过程的研究主要集中在小尺度（典型区或点）范围的地下水补给（采用环境同位素，地下水年龄梯度等），而大尺度（区域）的地下水补给仍多采用渗透系数估算，未考虑非饱和带增厚对地下水补给的影响。论文采用土壤水均衡模型、非饱和带水流模型和地下水三维水流模型，三层模型相耦合的方式，对华北平原区域地下水补给量、非饱和带储存量变化和非饱和带中地下水滞留时间进行了估算。研究表明，土壤质地类型对地下水补给存在较大影响，但并不是地下水补给的控制因素，地下水补给量仍受控于降水量的时空变化。模拟条件下，由于非饱和带对地下水补给的缓冲和滞后作用，非饱和带增厚对地下水入渗补给系数影响不大，但随之带来的非饱和带储存量增大则明显造成补给量减少，而对地下水补给明显的滞后作用与土壤质地有关。
针对人类活动对华北平原地下水系统的影响，从区域地下水年龄结构、地下水均衡和流场分析入手，利用数值模拟方法对地下水开采对地下水年龄结构的影响进行了模拟。深层地下水均衡显示开采条件下深层地下水主要补给来源是浅层含水层的越流补充与伴随地面沉降的含水层系统压缩释水。水均衡及流场分析均表明深层地下水侧向流入补给量非常有限。深层地下水的开采，虽一定程度上加大了侧向流入量，最主要是增大了垂向水力梯度，地下水径流方式由天然状态下的水平向流动为主转变为垂向分量占主导地位。
Intensive groundwater development in the North China Plain (NCP) is evidencedby large scale groundwater depletion. Spatiotemporal variability in groundwaterdepletion is evaluated using groundwater modeling. The groundwater model wascalibrated for both predevelopment (1960s) and post-development (1960s–2008)conditions. Initial recharge estimates and hydraulic parameters were derived from theliterature and recharge was modified through calibration. The steady-state flow modelrepresenting the natural conditions was calibrated using water level contours in1959.The transient flow model for the post-development period was calibrated using waterlevel contours in1975,1984,2001, as well as105and72annual water level timeseries from1993through2008in the shallow and deep aquifers, respectively. Modelresults indicate that mean groundwater depletion was~4km3/yr from1970through2008；however, depletion varied with time:~2.5km3/yr in the1970s,~4.0in the1980s,~2.0in1990–1996；and~5.0in1997–2008. Annual groundwater depletionrates are constrained by precipitation: they were lowest during high precipitationyears and highest during low precipitation years. Groundwater hydrograph data from117time series were used to detect seasonal variations in depletion, indicatinggreatest depletion during the spring and depletion is principally by groundwaterpumpage in seasonal scale. Mean annual calculated recharge is~120mm/yr and isfocused in the piedmont district (200–350mm/yr) and much lower in the central andcoastal plains (50–100mm/yr). The calibrated model provides the best available toolto assess potential sustainability strategies that can be applied to NCP.
As a critical water discharge term in regional scale water balance, accurateestimation of evapotranspiration is therefore important for estimation of water storagechange and sustainable water resources management. Using meteorological data from23stations, three models based on the complementary relationship are evaluatedagainst of estimates of evapotranspiration derived from regional water balance over1993to2008in the NCP. The CRAE model is then used to evaluate the actualevapotranspiration variation for the period from1960to2008. The estimated evapotranspiration is highly correlated with precipitation in seasonal scale, and isgenerally higher than precipitation when annual precipitation is less than500mm.The long term decreasing trend in the actual evapotranspiration can be explained bydeclining in sunshine duration and wind speed. Calculated average annual waterstorage change, represented by the difference between evapotranspiration andprecipitation, was approximately36mm, or4.8km3in the NCP. Over past50years,the cumulative groundwater storage depletion was~1,700mm, or220km3in theNCP. The difference between precipitation and actual evapotranspiration indicates anannual precipitation threshold of approximately500–600mm and about8%ofprecipitation above this threshold will potentially become recharge.
Accurate estimation of groundwater recharge is important for sustainablegroundwater utilization, and proper management of groundwater resources.Groundwater recharge remains one of the principal uncertainties in the water balanceof the North China Plain (NCP). Understanding impacts of climate, surface conditionssuch as soil properties and land use, and groundwater withdrawal on groundwaterrecharge is essential for accurate estimation of recharge, and characterization of thewater balance. In this study, spatial and temporal variability of recharge wereevaluated by integrating soil water balance and one-dimensional unsaturated flowmodels. Estimated recharge was further validated/assessed using a saturated zoneflow model. Soil hydraulic parameters were estimated using pedotransfer functions.Monthly simulation of recharge over16years (1993–2008) was performed across theentire NCP. Simulated mean annual recharge is~150mm across the plain,representing18%of mean annual precipitation+irrigation, and ranging from0to360mm in the piedmont area to0to260mm in the central and coastal plain. Theseamounts broadly agree with previous recharge estimates derived using differentmethods (e.g, environmental tracers). Variability in soil texture from clay to loamysand resulted in a large range of recharge rates, but this was not the primary factorcontrolling the amount of recharge；variation within soil classes was greater thanbetween soil classes. The modeling approach allowed assessment of the effect of unsaturated zone thickness (reaching10s of meters in many parts of the NCP) onrecharge. Increasing thickness of the unsaturated zone has little effect on the longterm mean annual recharge, however it has an important control on the lag-timebetween infiltration and reaching the water table (e.g, reaching up to8years for athickness of30m in loam soils)；and the delay varies with soil type. A sensitivityanalysis allowed assessment of model outputs dependence on particular parameters；initial water content was the most sensitive parameter, indicating that antecedent soilmoisture is a key control on recharge. This work provides information towards acomprehensive assessment of groundwater recharge in the NCP；insight into theimportant parameters controlling recharge and a further set of recharge estimates forcomparison with those derived by different methodologies.
Groundwater in the deep aquifer beneath an intermediate, brackish flow zoneacross the central and coastal parts of the North China Plain (NCP) is the region’sprimary water resource for irrigation and domestic use. Accurate information aboutthe groundwater age, recharge and flow regime, and its alteration by extensivegroundwater abstraction is necessary for water resource sustainability andvulnerability assessment. This paper presents the application of direct simulation ofgroundwater mean ages to the NCP aquifer through the use of a solute transportmodel, calibrated with the aid of previously reported carbon-14data, and water levelobservations from the pre-and post-development period. This provides an effectivemeans to constrain the regional flow model and improve the estimation of flowparameters, including recharge rates. The mean recharge estimated for thepredevelopment period is85mm/yr, which compares reasonably well with previousestimates. The simulated age distribution and the calibrated flow model are then usedto characterize the flow regime under natural conditions and an altered state bygroundwater pumping. The model results indicate that simulated groundwater ages inthe NCP are affected by both paleo-hydrologic conditions and extensive groundwaterpumping. Flow path analysis, water budget calculations and simulated groundwaterage distributions show that lateral flow to the deep aquifer in the NCP is limited and that the primary inflow is downward leakage from the shallow aquifer, which isenhanced by the extensive development of the deep aquifer. Transient flow modelingreflecting the post-development conditions confirms the hypothesis that widelydistributed vertical recharge and resulting flow have become the dominant processesshaping the flow patterns both in the shallow and deep aquifers in the NCP.
引文
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