上海城乡居民收入差距及其影响因素研究
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摘要
上海是中国经济最发达的地区之一,但城乡收入发展不平衡的现象依然存在并且随着经济发展有逐步变大的趋势。据上海统计局数据,1990年上海城乡收入差绝对数值为518元,2010年已达到18092元。而剔除CPI的因素,以1990年为基数,这个数字也已达到6133元,是1990年的11倍。缩小城乡收入差距关系到经济社会的可持续发展与稳定,因此,有必要研究经济发展过程中上海城乡收入差距的演变过程及其形成因素。
本文通过总结城乡收入差距研究领域的相关文献综述、概念及理论,梳理了城乡收入差距研究中的主要研究路径、研究方法及研究对象。在此基础上,本文首先研究了上海农村居民的收入现状及城乡收入差距的历史变迁。其次,分别运用协整分析法及主成分分析法研究了上海经济发展与城乡收入差距的关系以及影响上海城乡收入差距的主要因素并得出以下结论:上海经济发展与城乡收入差距是双向格兰杰因果关系;并且经济发展因素总体上扩大了上海城乡收入差距,而对农业的支持程度则有助于缩小城乡收入差距。再而,本文通过初次分配的视角研究上海城乡收入差距的影响因素并得出:农村居民初次分配收入的增加并未有效缩小上海城乡收入差距,这一定程度上是因为农村居民人力资本及就业市场的限制导致城乡居民初次分配收入尤其是工资性收入差距拉大而造成的。最后,本文基于全文的研究结论提出了一些缩小上海城乡收入差距的政策建议。
Shanghai is one of China's most developed cities, but the big urban-rural income gap still exists and enlarges with the economic development. From 1990 to 2010,according to the statistics from Shanghai Statistics Bureau, the absolute value of Shanghai urban-rural per capita disposable income gap has risen from 518 Yuan to 18092 Yuan. And this number has reached 6133 Yuan if we take inflation into consideration, which is 11 times of that in 1990. So it is very urgent to narrow the income gap between urban and rural citizens in Shanghai to maintain the sustainable economic and social development and stability. Therefore, we need to study the changes of urban-rural income gap in Shanghai and find the factors that affect it most.
First of all, this paper studied relevant literature review about the urban-rural income gap and concluded the path of the research, research methods and objectives. Then, it studied the present level of rural citizens’income of Shanghai and profile of Shanghai urban-rural income gap and its historical changes, and used principal component analysis and co-integration analysis to study the relationship between economic development in Shanghai and Shanghai urban-rural income gap, and got the following conclusions: 1, Shanghai's economic development and urban-rural income gap have two-way Granger causality. 2, The economic development factors enlarges Shanghai urban-rural income gap while more support to agricultural industry would help to narrow the urban-rural income gap.
In addition, this paper further studied the problem of urban-rural income gap from a primary distribution perspective and found that the income gap did not narrow with the increasing of rural citizens’primary distributed income and this mainly attributes to the lack of education and limitation for employment for rural citizens which enlarge the primary distribution income gap between rural and urban citizens. Finally, based on the results of the paper, this paper put forward some policy suggestions including some specific measures to support the agricultural industry and increase the rural citizens’income.
本文通过总结城乡收入差距研究领域的相关文献综述、概念及理论,梳理了城乡收入差距研究中的主要研究路径、研究方法及研究对象。在此基础上,本文首先研究了上海农村居民的收入现状及城乡收入差距的历史变迁。其次,分别运用协整分析法及主成分分析法研究了上海经济发展与城乡收入差距的关系以及影响上海城乡收入差距的主要因素并得出以下结论:上海经济发展与城乡收入差距是双向格兰杰因果关系;并且经济发展因素总体上扩大了上海城乡收入差距,而对农业的支持程度则有助于缩小城乡收入差距。再而,本文通过初次分配的视角研究上海城乡收入差距的影响因素并得出:农村居民初次分配收入的增加并未有效缩小上海城乡收入差距,这一定程度上是因为农村居民人力资本及就业市场的限制导致城乡居民初次分配收入尤其是工资性收入差距拉大而造成的。最后,本文基于全文的研究结论提出了一些缩小上海城乡收入差距的政策建议。
Shanghai is one of China's most developed cities, but the big urban-rural income gap still exists and enlarges with the economic development. From 1990 to 2010,according to the statistics from Shanghai Statistics Bureau, the absolute value of Shanghai urban-rural per capita disposable income gap has risen from 518 Yuan to 18092 Yuan. And this number has reached 6133 Yuan if we take inflation into consideration, which is 11 times of that in 1990. So it is very urgent to narrow the income gap between urban and rural citizens in Shanghai to maintain the sustainable economic and social development and stability. Therefore, we need to study the changes of urban-rural income gap in Shanghai and find the factors that affect it most.
First of all, this paper studied relevant literature review about the urban-rural income gap and concluded the path of the research, research methods and objectives. Then, it studied the present level of rural citizens’income of Shanghai and profile of Shanghai urban-rural income gap and its historical changes, and used principal component analysis and co-integration analysis to study the relationship between economic development in Shanghai and Shanghai urban-rural income gap, and got the following conclusions: 1, Shanghai's economic development and urban-rural income gap have two-way Granger causality. 2, The economic development factors enlarges Shanghai urban-rural income gap while more support to agricultural industry would help to narrow the urban-rural income gap.
In addition, this paper further studied the problem of urban-rural income gap from a primary distribution perspective and found that the income gap did not narrow with the increasing of rural citizens’primary distributed income and this mainly attributes to the lack of education and limitation for employment for rural citizens which enlarge the primary distribution income gap between rural and urban citizens. Finally, based on the results of the paper, this paper put forward some policy suggestions including some specific measures to support the agricultural industry and increase the rural citizens’income.
引文
[1] Kuznets, S. Economic Growth and Income Equality[M].American Economic Review, 1955(45): 1-28
[2] Adelman I., Morris H. Economic Growth and Social Equality in Development Countries[J].Stanford University Press, 1973: 30-34
[3] Ahiuwalia, M. Inequality, poverty and Development[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1976(3): 307-402
[4] Ram, Rati. Economic Development and Income Inequality: An Overlooked Regression Constraint[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995(43): 425-434
[5] Amos Jr., Orley M. The relationship between regional income inequality, personal income inequality, and development[J]. Regional Science Perspectives, 1983(1): 2-13
[5] Becker, G. &N. Tomes. An equilibrium theory of the distribution of income and Intergenerational mobility[J].Journal of Political Economy, 1979(87): 1153-1189
[6] Koo, H. The political of Economy of Income Distribution In South Korea: The Impact of the State’s Industrialization Policies[M].World Development, 1984(12): 1029-1037
[7] Fei, J.C.H, Ranis G. Growth With Equality[M].Oxford University Press, 1979: 442
[8]郭熙保.从发展经济学观点看待库兹涅茨假说-兼论中国收入不平等扩大的原因[J].管理世界,2002(3):66-73
[9]陈宗胜.失业、失业保障及劳动市场.全国高校社会主义经济理论与实践研讨会第8次会议,1994
[10]国家统计局农村调查总队课题组.城乡居民收入差距研究[J].经济研究,1994(12):34-45
[11]蔡昉.城乡收入差距与制度变革的临界点[J].中国社会科学,2003(5):162-165
[12]赵人伟,李实.中国居民收入分配再研究[J].经济研究,1999(4):3-17
[13]王小鲁,樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005(10):24-36
[14]王建农,张启良.城乡居民收入差距的基本特征与趋势[J].统计研究,2005(3):37-39
[15]王少平,欧阳志刚.我国城乡收入差距的度量及其对经济增长的效应[J].经济研究,2007(10):44-55
[16]毛其淋.经济开放、城市化水平与城乡收入差距-基于中国省际面板数据的经验研究[J].浙江社会科学,2011(10):11-22
[17]段平忠.人口流动对经济增长地区差距的影响[J].中国软科学,2005(12):99-110
[18]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004(01):33-43
[19]李实.《中国个人收入分配研究回顾与展望》[J].经济学(季刊),2003(2):379-404
[20]郝爱民.我国城乡收入差距、经济结构变化与农村劳动力转移的实证分析[J].生产力研究,2006(12):39-56
[21]韦伟,傅勇.城乡收入差距与人口流动模型[J].中国人民大学学报,2004(6):7-19
[22]张文,尹继东.江西经济发展、城乡收入差距与农村劳动力转移就业的关系研究[J].企业经济,2008(11):93-95
[23]赵满华,我国农村居民收入变化的几个特征[J],生产力研究,1997(05):14-34
[24]侯风云,徐慧.城乡发展差距的人力资本解释[J].理论学刊,2004(2):42-45
[25]郭剑雄.人力资本、生育率与城乡收入差距的收敛[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):27-37
[26]王德文,蔡昉,张国庆等.农村迁移劳动力就业与工资决定:教育与培训的重要性[J].经济学季刊,2008(4):1137-1148
[27] Cromwell, J. The Size Distribution of Income: an International Comparison[J]. Review and income and Wealth, 1971(23):291-308
[28]徐现祥,王海港.我国初次分配中的两极分化及成因[J].经济研究,2008(2):106-118
[29]李稻葵.GDP中劳动份额演变的U型规律[J].经济研究,2009(10):70-82
[30]易培强.关于收入初次分配制度建设的思考[J].湖南师范大学社会科学学报,2007(4):93-97
[31]许经勇.剖析歧视性劳动力市场分割[J].福建理论学习,2007(6):26-28
[32]胡放之.工资水平及其影响因素分析[J].武汉科技学院学报,2005(7):88-90
[33]国家统计局.国家统计局统计上划分城乡工作管理办法[S].国家统计局网站,2006
[34]陈南岳.中国过剩二元制经济研究[M].中国经济出版社,2004:20-36
[35]高鸿业.西方经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2001:50-78
[36]李晓欣.基于要素市场分析我国收入分配问题[D].天津:天津财经大学,2009 :3-12
[37] Lewis, W.A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor[J].Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 1954(22): 139-181
[38] Kaldor, No. Alternative Theories of Distribution[J].Review of Economic Studies, 1956(23): 83-100
[39] Becker, G.&N. Tomes. An equilibrium theory of the distribution of income and Intergenerational mobility[J].Journal of Political Economy,1979 (6): 1153-1189
[40] Mincer, J. Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1958(66): 281-302
[41] Lucas, R. On the Mechanics of Economics Development[J]. Joumal of Monetary Economics, 1988(22): 3-42
[42] Romer. Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economics, 1990(94): 30-45
[43] Granger, C.W.J. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods [J]. Econometrica, 1969(3): 424-438
[44] ENGLE, ROBERT F, GRANGER CW J. Co-integration and Error Correction[J]. Econometrica, 1987(55): 76-251
[45] Anderson TW. An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis[M].Wiley,1984: 201-220
[46]史清华等.都市农民收入现状与增收问题分析—以上海市闵行区七村调查为例[J].学习与实践,2011(3):5-21
[47]方志权.上海农民增收长效机制跟踪研究[J].科学发展,2009(12):57-64
[48]方志权.建立与完善上海农民增收长效机制的思考[J].社会科学,2006(11):67-70
[49]顾海英等.城乡一体化过程中上海农村社会事业发展对策研究[J].科学发展,2010(11):52-77
[2] Adelman I., Morris H. Economic Growth and Social Equality in Development Countries[J].Stanford University Press, 1973: 30-34
[3] Ahiuwalia, M. Inequality, poverty and Development[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1976(3): 307-402
[4] Ram, Rati. Economic Development and Income Inequality: An Overlooked Regression Constraint[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995(43): 425-434
[5] Amos Jr., Orley M. The relationship between regional income inequality, personal income inequality, and development[J]. Regional Science Perspectives, 1983(1): 2-13
[5] Becker, G. &N. Tomes. An equilibrium theory of the distribution of income and Intergenerational mobility[J].Journal of Political Economy, 1979(87): 1153-1189
[6] Koo, H. The political of Economy of Income Distribution In South Korea: The Impact of the State’s Industrialization Policies[M].World Development, 1984(12): 1029-1037
[7] Fei, J.C.H, Ranis G. Growth With Equality[M].Oxford University Press, 1979: 442
[8]郭熙保.从发展经济学观点看待库兹涅茨假说-兼论中国收入不平等扩大的原因[J].管理世界,2002(3):66-73
[9]陈宗胜.失业、失业保障及劳动市场.全国高校社会主义经济理论与实践研讨会第8次会议,1994
[10]国家统计局农村调查总队课题组.城乡居民收入差距研究[J].经济研究,1994(12):34-45
[11]蔡昉.城乡收入差距与制度变革的临界点[J].中国社会科学,2003(5):162-165
[12]赵人伟,李实.中国居民收入分配再研究[J].经济研究,1999(4):3-17
[13]王小鲁,樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005(10):24-36
[14]王建农,张启良.城乡居民收入差距的基本特征与趋势[J].统计研究,2005(3):37-39
[15]王少平,欧阳志刚.我国城乡收入差距的度量及其对经济增长的效应[J].经济研究,2007(10):44-55
[16]毛其淋.经济开放、城市化水平与城乡收入差距-基于中国省际面板数据的经验研究[J].浙江社会科学,2011(10):11-22
[17]段平忠.人口流动对经济增长地区差距的影响[J].中国软科学,2005(12):99-110
[18]王小鲁,樊纲.中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素[J].经济研究,2004(01):33-43
[19]李实.《中国个人收入分配研究回顾与展望》[J].经济学(季刊),2003(2):379-404
[20]郝爱民.我国城乡收入差距、经济结构变化与农村劳动力转移的实证分析[J].生产力研究,2006(12):39-56
[21]韦伟,傅勇.城乡收入差距与人口流动模型[J].中国人民大学学报,2004(6):7-19
[22]张文,尹继东.江西经济发展、城乡收入差距与农村劳动力转移就业的关系研究[J].企业经济,2008(11):93-95
[23]赵满华,我国农村居民收入变化的几个特征[J],生产力研究,1997(05):14-34
[24]侯风云,徐慧.城乡发展差距的人力资本解释[J].理论学刊,2004(2):42-45
[25]郭剑雄.人力资本、生育率与城乡收入差距的收敛[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):27-37
[26]王德文,蔡昉,张国庆等.农村迁移劳动力就业与工资决定:教育与培训的重要性[J].经济学季刊,2008(4):1137-1148
[27] Cromwell, J. The Size Distribution of Income: an International Comparison[J]. Review and income and Wealth, 1971(23):291-308
[28]徐现祥,王海港.我国初次分配中的两极分化及成因[J].经济研究,2008(2):106-118
[29]李稻葵.GDP中劳动份额演变的U型规律[J].经济研究,2009(10):70-82
[30]易培强.关于收入初次分配制度建设的思考[J].湖南师范大学社会科学学报,2007(4):93-97
[31]许经勇.剖析歧视性劳动力市场分割[J].福建理论学习,2007(6):26-28
[32]胡放之.工资水平及其影响因素分析[J].武汉科技学院学报,2005(7):88-90
[33]国家统计局.国家统计局统计上划分城乡工作管理办法[S].国家统计局网站,2006
[34]陈南岳.中国过剩二元制经济研究[M].中国经济出版社,2004:20-36
[35]高鸿业.西方经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2001:50-78
[36]李晓欣.基于要素市场分析我国收入分配问题[D].天津:天津财经大学,2009 :3-12
[37] Lewis, W.A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor[J].Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 1954(22): 139-181
[38] Kaldor, No. Alternative Theories of Distribution[J].Review of Economic Studies, 1956(23): 83-100
[39] Becker, G.&N. Tomes. An equilibrium theory of the distribution of income and Intergenerational mobility[J].Journal of Political Economy,1979 (6): 1153-1189
[40] Mincer, J. Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1958(66): 281-302
[41] Lucas, R. On the Mechanics of Economics Development[J]. Joumal of Monetary Economics, 1988(22): 3-42
[42] Romer. Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth[J].Journal of Political Economics, 1990(94): 30-45
[43] Granger, C.W.J. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods [J]. Econometrica, 1969(3): 424-438
[44] ENGLE, ROBERT F, GRANGER CW J. Co-integration and Error Correction[J]. Econometrica, 1987(55): 76-251
[45] Anderson TW. An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis[M].Wiley,1984: 201-220
[46]史清华等.都市农民收入现状与增收问题分析—以上海市闵行区七村调查为例[J].学习与实践,2011(3):5-21
[47]方志权.上海农民增收长效机制跟踪研究[J].科学发展,2009(12):57-64
[48]方志权.建立与完善上海农民增收长效机制的思考[J].社会科学,2006(11):67-70
[49]顾海英等.城乡一体化过程中上海农村社会事业发展对策研究[J].科学发展,2010(11):52-77
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