我国风险投资家对项目评价指标的选用研究
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摘要
风险投资及其相关问题的研究是近年来财务管理领域研究的热点问题之一。在我国,风险投资为创新性高新技术企业及其业务开展做出了重要贡献。如果风险投资业运行顺利,将有利于高新技术企业的技术研发和高新技术产业健康快速的发展。在风险投资机构选择具体的投资项目时,最主要的环节是依据评价指标对项目进行评价,决定投资与否。从本质上说,风险投资选择项目的过程是将社会资本有效地引导至最佳收益企业的过程,而项目选择时的评价指标及其选用等问题即是本课题的主要研究内容。
本论文研究我国风险投资家对项目评价指标的选用及排序问题。论文在认真分析了我国风险投资发展历程和相关课题的研究基础上,对风险投资项目评价指标体系进行了深入研究。依据理论和访谈结果的分析与讨论,提出我国风险投资家在进行项目选择时的指标体系。该模型包括五项一层指标,每一项一层指标包括四项二层指标。五项一层指标分别为：管理团队、技术与产品、市场与竞争环境、财务评估和项目交易过程相关指标。在建立的指标体系的基础上,分别以初创期和成熟期数据为采集对象,进行了较大数量的基于问卷调查的数据采集。以层次分析法(Analytical Hierarchy Process)和模糊层次分析法作为主要工具进行数据分析,得到我国风险投资家在决策时选用的项目评价指标的重要性排序结果。
经过可靠的数据分析,结果表明,对于初创期和成熟期的企业和项目选择,风险投资家均认为管理团队为首要指标。对于初创期企业,风险投资家认为第二重要的指标是技术与产品,而该指标对成熟期企业是相对最不重要的指标。项目交易过程相关指标对初创期企业相对最不重要,而对于成熟期企业是第三重要的指标。财务评估指标对成熟期企业是第二重要的指标,对初创期企业是第三重要的指标,这体现了资本的逐利本质。对于初创期和成熟期企业,市场与竞争环境指标均排在第四位。
本论文的创新之处主要体现在理论模型建立和数量分析方法应用两方面。理论模型建立的创新之处主要有：(1)采用半结构式访谈方式建立基础理论模型；(2)多种分析方法的引入及方法间的比较；(3)基于风险企业不同发展阶段的理论模型动态调整研究。数量分析方法应用方面的创新之处主要有：(1)运用层次分析法对专家组的评价结果进行数量分析；(2)将模糊层次分析法引入到风险投资项目评价指标的研究中；(3)将模糊数学的模糊层次分析法与一般的层次分析法作比较性研究；(4)在一个问题的研究中,如果采用不同的数量研究方法得到的结果相同,这可作为对研究结果的可靠性分析。
目前,针对风险投资,尤其是项目评价指标选用的研究还属于起步阶段。可以预见,在我国风险投资领域今后的研究与实践中,经典数学方法以及模糊理论、灰色理论等诸多非经典方法将得到广泛而深入的应用。整体上说,风险投资是一个典型的系统工程。在今后的研究中,应当建立全过程的、动态的和可控的系统理论模型,为我国风险投资家的相关决策起到更为有效的支撑作用。
The research of venture capital and related issues has becomes one of the hottest issues of the research in financial management field in recent years. In China, it has made great contribution to the innovative high-tech enterprises and their business development. If running smoothly, it will be conducive to the development of the technology inventions of the high-tech enterprises and the enterprises themselves healthily and rapidly. The most important aspect is to decide to invest or not by evaluating investment projects based on the evaluation criteria when venture capital organizations select specific projects. Essentially, the process of choosing projects is just that of guiding the social capital to the best yield enterprise effectively, and the evaluation criteria and the selection are the main contents of this topic.
This dissertation focuses on the study of the selection and sort of project evaluation criteria of China's venture capitalists. In this dissertation, venture capital project evaluation criteria system is studied deeply based on the careful analysis of the development process of China's venture capital and the research of related topics, meanwhile the criteria system is proposed based on theory and the analysis and discussion of the interviews when China's venture capitalists select projects.The system includes five one-layer-criteria which are management team, technology and products, market and competitive environment, financial assessment and the related criteria of project transactions, and each includes four two-layer-criteria.Based on the criteria system already built, a relatively large number of questionnaire-based data are collected with taking the start-up and maturity data as the objects respectively. With Analytical Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process as the main tools for data analysis, this dissertation gets the importance ranking conclusion when China's venture capitalists select projects using venture criteria.
Reliable data analysis shows that venture capitalists consider the management team as the primary criteria for start-up and mature enterprises and project selection. For start-up enterprises, venture capitalists considered the second most important criteria are the technology and products which are relatively least important for the mature ones. The related criteria of project transaction process are relatively least important for the start-up enterprises, while third most important for mature enterprise. That financial assessment criteria are the second most important criteria for mature enterprises, however putted in the third place by start-up enterprises, reflects the profit-driven nature of the capital. For start-up and mature enterprises, market and competitive environment criteria are ranked in fourth place.
The innovations of this dissertation are mainly reflected in the theory modeling and the application of quantitative analysis methods. The innovations of the theory modeling includes:(1) adopting semi-structured interviews to establish the fundamental theory models;(2) the introduction of a variety of analytical methods and the comparison between them;(3) dynamic adjustment of theory model based on the different development stages of venture enterprises. The innovations of the quantitative analysis methods includes:(1) applying Analytical Hierarchy Process on the evaluation results of the experts group for quantitative analysis;(2) introducing Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process into the study of venture capital evaluation criteria;(3) making a comparative study between Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process of fuzzy mathematics and general analytic hierarchy processes;(4) it can be used as a reliability analysis of research findings, if get just the same results by adopting different quantitative analysis methods in the study of a problem.
At present, the study aiming at venture capital, especially the selection of project evaluation criteria is still at the elementary stage. It can be predicted that the classic mathematical methods, fuzzy theory, gray theory, and many other non-classical methods will be applied extensively and deeply in future study and practice of venture capital field in China. Overall, venture capital is typical system engineering. The whole process, dynamic and controlled system theory model, should be established which will play a more effective support role in the correlation decision-making of China's venture capitalists in future study.
本论文研究我国风险投资家对项目评价指标的选用及排序问题。论文在认真分析了我国风险投资发展历程和相关课题的研究基础上,对风险投资项目评价指标体系进行了深入研究。依据理论和访谈结果的分析与讨论,提出我国风险投资家在进行项目选择时的指标体系。该模型包括五项一层指标,每一项一层指标包括四项二层指标。五项一层指标分别为：管理团队、技术与产品、市场与竞争环境、财务评估和项目交易过程相关指标。在建立的指标体系的基础上,分别以初创期和成熟期数据为采集对象,进行了较大数量的基于问卷调查的数据采集。以层次分析法(Analytical Hierarchy Process)和模糊层次分析法作为主要工具进行数据分析,得到我国风险投资家在决策时选用的项目评价指标的重要性排序结果。
经过可靠的数据分析,结果表明,对于初创期和成熟期的企业和项目选择,风险投资家均认为管理团队为首要指标。对于初创期企业,风险投资家认为第二重要的指标是技术与产品,而该指标对成熟期企业是相对最不重要的指标。项目交易过程相关指标对初创期企业相对最不重要,而对于成熟期企业是第三重要的指标。财务评估指标对成熟期企业是第二重要的指标,对初创期企业是第三重要的指标,这体现了资本的逐利本质。对于初创期和成熟期企业,市场与竞争环境指标均排在第四位。
本论文的创新之处主要体现在理论模型建立和数量分析方法应用两方面。理论模型建立的创新之处主要有：(1)采用半结构式访谈方式建立基础理论模型；(2)多种分析方法的引入及方法间的比较；(3)基于风险企业不同发展阶段的理论模型动态调整研究。数量分析方法应用方面的创新之处主要有：(1)运用层次分析法对专家组的评价结果进行数量分析；(2)将模糊层次分析法引入到风险投资项目评价指标的研究中；(3)将模糊数学的模糊层次分析法与一般的层次分析法作比较性研究；(4)在一个问题的研究中,如果采用不同的数量研究方法得到的结果相同,这可作为对研究结果的可靠性分析。
目前,针对风险投资,尤其是项目评价指标选用的研究还属于起步阶段。可以预见,在我国风险投资领域今后的研究与实践中,经典数学方法以及模糊理论、灰色理论等诸多非经典方法将得到广泛而深入的应用。整体上说,风险投资是一个典型的系统工程。在今后的研究中,应当建立全过程的、动态的和可控的系统理论模型,为我国风险投资家的相关决策起到更为有效的支撑作用。
The research of venture capital and related issues has becomes one of the hottest issues of the research in financial management field in recent years. In China, it has made great contribution to the innovative high-tech enterprises and their business development. If running smoothly, it will be conducive to the development of the technology inventions of the high-tech enterprises and the enterprises themselves healthily and rapidly. The most important aspect is to decide to invest or not by evaluating investment projects based on the evaluation criteria when venture capital organizations select specific projects. Essentially, the process of choosing projects is just that of guiding the social capital to the best yield enterprise effectively, and the evaluation criteria and the selection are the main contents of this topic.
This dissertation focuses on the study of the selection and sort of project evaluation criteria of China's venture capitalists. In this dissertation, venture capital project evaluation criteria system is studied deeply based on the careful analysis of the development process of China's venture capital and the research of related topics, meanwhile the criteria system is proposed based on theory and the analysis and discussion of the interviews when China's venture capitalists select projects.The system includes five one-layer-criteria which are management team, technology and products, market and competitive environment, financial assessment and the related criteria of project transactions, and each includes four two-layer-criteria.Based on the criteria system already built, a relatively large number of questionnaire-based data are collected with taking the start-up and maturity data as the objects respectively. With Analytical Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process as the main tools for data analysis, this dissertation gets the importance ranking conclusion when China's venture capitalists select projects using venture criteria.
Reliable data analysis shows that venture capitalists consider the management team as the primary criteria for start-up and mature enterprises and project selection. For start-up enterprises, venture capitalists considered the second most important criteria are the technology and products which are relatively least important for the mature ones. The related criteria of project transaction process are relatively least important for the start-up enterprises, while third most important for mature enterprise. That financial assessment criteria are the second most important criteria for mature enterprises, however putted in the third place by start-up enterprises, reflects the profit-driven nature of the capital. For start-up and mature enterprises, market and competitive environment criteria are ranked in fourth place.
The innovations of this dissertation are mainly reflected in the theory modeling and the application of quantitative analysis methods. The innovations of the theory modeling includes:(1) adopting semi-structured interviews to establish the fundamental theory models;(2) the introduction of a variety of analytical methods and the comparison between them;(3) dynamic adjustment of theory model based on the different development stages of venture enterprises. The innovations of the quantitative analysis methods includes:(1) applying Analytical Hierarchy Process on the evaluation results of the experts group for quantitative analysis;(2) introducing Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process into the study of venture capital evaluation criteria;(3) making a comparative study between Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process of fuzzy mathematics and general analytic hierarchy processes;(4) it can be used as a reliability analysis of research findings, if get just the same results by adopting different quantitative analysis methods in the study of a problem.
At present, the study aiming at venture capital, especially the selection of project evaluation criteria is still at the elementary stage. It can be predicted that the classic mathematical methods, fuzzy theory, gray theory, and many other non-classical methods will be applied extensively and deeply in future study and practice of venture capital field in China. Overall, venture capital is typical system engineering. The whole process, dynamic and controlled system theory model, should be established which will play a more effective support role in the correlation decision-making of China's venture capitalists in future study.
引文
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