基于模糊推理和模式识别的城市生态适宜度评价
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摘要
城市作为人居环境的主要类型已获得了空前的发展,城市在给人类社会带来文明与进步的同时,也由于其物质能量高度聚集、人类活动密集,给生态环境带来重大的影响,形成一系列城市问题。开展城市适宜度研究可以促进城市生态的良性循环,协调城市发展与生态问题之间的矛盾,为解决城市问题提供了理论依据,评价结果可以作为城市调控与管理有力的依据。因此,研究城市生态适宜度不仅具有生态学意义,还具有社会经济意义。
本文针对城市在发展过程中的“逆生态”问题,从生态的角度对城市进行评价,建立了城市生态适宜度指标体系,并利用模糊推理和模式识别的方法对指标体系进行评价和分析,得到城市生态适宜度评价模型。本文首先以生态学原理和方法作为基础,查阅了大量的文献和资料。然后从生态的角度出发,对城市生态进行定性与定量分析,提出了城市生态适宜度的概念和内涵,并且从建成区资源消耗与支撑、建成区环境状况与污染负荷、建成区效率效益、建成区社会保障及福利安全、市域生态支撑五个方面选择和筛选了33个指标,构建了城市生态适宜度指标体系。本文使用了模糊逻辑评价的方法对城市生态适宜度指标体系进行评价,通过对系统进行模糊化、建立模糊推理系统、制订模糊规则以及进行模糊推理,最后进行解模糊化,得出城市生态适宜度的评价值。
通过对典型城市扬州市1997-2007年城市生态适宜度进行评价得出：1997年-2007年扬州市城市生态适宜度在0.482-0.684之间,处在一般和良好范围内,城市生态适宜度总体呈上升趋势。
分目标层(B层)的评价结果表明：
(1)在研究时段的初期,建成区资源消耗与支撑处于最高,但随着时间变化,建成区资源消耗与支撑有些波动,中间时段有些下降。说明随着社会发展,城市的发展以牺牲资源为代价,但随着环保意识的增加,这一状况有所改变；
(2)建成区环境状况与污染负荷总体呈上升趋势,但是有些波动,这和环境污染的瞬时性有关,应注意环境保护的持续监控与管理；
(3)建成区效率效益在研究时段的初期处于“一般”的范围,但是随着时间变化,该指标有所增加,建成区效率效益成为城市生态适宜度的增长点。
(4)在研究时段的前期,建成区社会保障及福利安全处于最低,但该指标增加迅速,这和现实社会的实际情况是相符的,社会保障和福利在1997-2007年间快速增加,成为城市生态适宜度的主要增长点。
(5)市域生态支撑波动较大,总体略有上升,说明在后期市域生态不能给予城市足够支撑,市域生态支撑将成为城市发展的瓶颈。
通过B层指标和D层指标之间的回归分析：
(1)人均生活能耗指标与建成区资源消耗与支撑值呈负相关,其余指标均呈正相关,若人为调控人均园林绿地面积指标、人均占地面积指标、人均生活用水量指标、人均生活能耗指标,均会较大幅度地提高建成区资源消耗与支撑的值,优先考虑人均园林绿地面积指标;
(2)综合考虑得出,建成区环境与污染负荷值主要受工业废水达标排放率和噪声达标覆盖率指标显著影响,若人为调控噪声达标覆盖率和工业废水达标排放率,会较大幅度地提高城区环境与污染负荷值,其中优先考虑调控噪声达标覆盖率指标；
(3)建成区效率效益值主要受人均财政收入指标显著影响,若人为调控人均财政收入指标,会较大幅度地提高建成区效率效益值；
(4)建成区社会保障及福利安全的值主要受居民人均可支配收入指标和人均城市道路面积指标显著影响,若人为调控居民人均可支配收入指标和人均城市道路面积指标,会较大幅度地提高建成区社会保障及福利安全的值,其中优先考虑调控居民人均可支配收入指标；
(5)市域生态支撑的值主要受全市人均自然非生物可再生能显著影响,若人为调控全市人均自然非生物可再生能指标,会较大幅度地提高市域生态支撑的值。
本文摆脱传统研究方法,将城市城区作为研究对象,真正意义上实现城市生态适宜度中“城市”二字,并且创新性地从建成区资源消耗与支撑、建成区环境状况与污染负荷、建成区效率效益、建成区社会保障及福利安全、市域生态支撑五个方面构建城市适宜度评价指标体系,充分体现了以城市为中心,以人为本的根本要求。同时本文采用模糊数学的方法对指标体系进行评价,更加客观合理。舍弃常规的层次分析法对指标权重的设定,改为模糊推理和模式识别的模糊评价方法,使结果更加合理和符合客观实际。
开展城市生态适宜度评价研究,可以促进城市生态的良性循环,协调城市发展与生态问题之间的矛盾,为解决城市问题提供了理论依据,评价结果可以作为城市调控与管理有力的依据。通过城市生态适宜度研究,不仅可以发现城市现有的问题,进行调控,还可以为城市的发展进行预测与规划,以促进城市的进一步发展。
As the main types of living environment, cities have been unprecedented developed. The development of cities have brought civilization and progress of human society, while it also has brought a significant impact on the ecological environment because of the concentrated material and energy, and intense human activities. It has resulted in a series of urban problems. Developing evaluation and study on the urban ecological suitability can improve the virtuous cycle of urban ecosystems, coordinate the contradiction between the urban development and ecological problems, provide theoretical basis for solving urban problems, and the evaluation results can be the strong basis of carrying out urban regulation and management. Therefore, researching of urban ecological suitability not only has ecological significance, but also has socio-economic importance.
In allusion to the "reverse ecology" issues in the process of development of cities, this paper evaluates cities from the ecological point of view and establishes index system of urban ecological suitability. Furthermore, by means of fuzzy inference and pattern recognition to evaluate and analyze the index system, it concludes evaluation model of urban ecological suitability. This, paper has accessed to a large number of documents and information firstly based on ecological principles and methods.Then it starts from an ecological point of view to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis on the urban ecological system, and make out the concept and connotation of urban ecological suitability. In addition, it has selected and screened33indicators from the five aspects such as resource supporting capacity of main city zone, environmental condition and pollution load of main city zone, efficiency benefits of main city zone, social security and social welfare of main city zone, and ecological support of city zone to set up the indicator system of urban ecosystem suitability. This article has adopted fuzzy logic evaluation methods for evaluation on index system of urban ecosystem suitability; it finally carried out defuzzification to obtain the evaluated value of urban ecosystem suitability through carrying out fuzzy to the system, establishing fuzzy inference system, developing fuzzy rules and carrying out fuzzy inference.
By the study on Yangzhou City's urban ecosystem suitability, we can see that:the urban ecosystem suitability of Yangzhou city during1997-2007was between0.482-0.684, it was in normal and good range, and the overall urban ecosystem suitability appears rising.
The evaluation results of each subsystem (layer B) show that:
1) In the early stages of the study period, the resource supporting capacity of main city zone was in the highest. But along with the time changing, the resource supporting capacity of main city zone has a little fluctuation; there has some decreasing in the middle. It shows that along with social development, the urban development has been at the cost of sacrificing resources, but as environmental awareness increased, this situation has changed a lot.
2) The environmental condition and pollution load of main city zone appear overall rising, but there are still some fluctuations, which are related to the transient of environmental pollution, so we should pay attention to the continuous monitoring and management of environmental protection.
3) The efficiency benefits of main city zone was in the "normal" range at the early study period,but along with the time changing, the index had a little increasing, the efficiency benefits of main city zone has became the new point of growth.
4) In the early stage of the study period, the social security and social welfare of main city zone was the lowest, but the index increased rapidly, which was in line with the actual conditions of the social reality.The social security and social welfare increased rapidly during1997-2007, which has became the main growth point of urban ecosystem suitability.
5) In the later study period, the ecological support of city zone was the lowest. It indicates that the latter ecological of city zone can not give adequate support to the city, the ecological support of city zone will become a bottleneck of urban development.
Through the Regression Analysis between the index system of layer B and layer D:
1) Urban per capita resource consumption was negatively associated with the main city resource consumption and support, other index was correctitude associated. If the artificial regulations of urban green space area per capita indicators, the urban per capita land use indicators, urban per capita water consumption targets and urban per capita energy consumption indicators will greatly improve the main urban areas the consumption of resources and support. The value of green space per capita area was priority advisement;
2) Taking into account, the main urban environment and pollution load is mainly affected by the value indicators of significant noise impact, if the artificial regulation of noise control standards and the industrial wastewater discharge standards would greatly improve the environment and the main city pollution load values, which give priority to control noise standard coverage indicators;
3) The value of the main urban areas mainly affected by the efficiency of effective indicators of per capita income of a significant financial impact, if the per capita revenue targets human controlled would be more greatly improve the efficiency of effective value of the main urban areas;
4) The value of social security of the main city and welfare is mainly affected by urban residents disposable income and per capita urban road area, if the artificial regulation of urban residents per capita disposable income and per capita urban road area will be more substantial improve the value of social security and welfare of the main city, which give priority to control urban residents per capita disposable income indicators;
5) Urban Ecological supported mainly impact by the value of the city's per capita natural renewable non-living resource. If renewable non-biological energy is controlled by the human, it would be more greatly increase the value of Urban Ecological support.
This article has got rid of the traditional research methods, it has put the main city zone as a research object, to truly realize the word "Urban" in the concept of urban ecosystem niche-fitness. It also innovatively set up the indicator system of urban ecosystem suitability based on the five aspects of resource supporting capacity of main city zone, environmental condition and pollution load of main city zone, efficiency benefits of main city zone, social security and social welfare of main city zone and ecological support of city zone, which has fully reflected the basic requirements of city-centered and people-centered. And at the same time, this paper has adopted fuzzy mathematical method to evaluate index system, which would brought more objective and reasonable results. Abandoning the setting of conventional AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to the index weight, to change it into a more reasonable fuzzy inference way and fuzzy evaluation way of pattern recognition, which will make the results more reasonable and more in line with objective reality.
To develop evaluation and study on the urban ecosystem niche-fitness can improve the virtuous cycle of urban ecosystems, coordinate the contradiction between the urban development and ecological problems, provide theoretical basis for solving urban problems, and the evaluation results can be the strong basis of carrying out urban regulation and management. By carrying out study on urban ecosystem suitability,we not only can find out the existing problems before carrying out adjustment, but also can carry out prediction and planning for urban development, so as to promote further development of the city.
本文针对城市在发展过程中的“逆生态”问题,从生态的角度对城市进行评价,建立了城市生态适宜度指标体系,并利用模糊推理和模式识别的方法对指标体系进行评价和分析,得到城市生态适宜度评价模型。本文首先以生态学原理和方法作为基础,查阅了大量的文献和资料。然后从生态的角度出发,对城市生态进行定性与定量分析,提出了城市生态适宜度的概念和内涵,并且从建成区资源消耗与支撑、建成区环境状况与污染负荷、建成区效率效益、建成区社会保障及福利安全、市域生态支撑五个方面选择和筛选了33个指标,构建了城市生态适宜度指标体系。本文使用了模糊逻辑评价的方法对城市生态适宜度指标体系进行评价,通过对系统进行模糊化、建立模糊推理系统、制订模糊规则以及进行模糊推理,最后进行解模糊化,得出城市生态适宜度的评价值。
通过对典型城市扬州市1997-2007年城市生态适宜度进行评价得出：1997年-2007年扬州市城市生态适宜度在0.482-0.684之间,处在一般和良好范围内,城市生态适宜度总体呈上升趋势。
分目标层(B层)的评价结果表明：
(1)在研究时段的初期,建成区资源消耗与支撑处于最高,但随着时间变化,建成区资源消耗与支撑有些波动,中间时段有些下降。说明随着社会发展,城市的发展以牺牲资源为代价,但随着环保意识的增加,这一状况有所改变；
(2)建成区环境状况与污染负荷总体呈上升趋势,但是有些波动,这和环境污染的瞬时性有关,应注意环境保护的持续监控与管理；
(3)建成区效率效益在研究时段的初期处于“一般”的范围,但是随着时间变化,该指标有所增加,建成区效率效益成为城市生态适宜度的增长点。
(4)在研究时段的前期,建成区社会保障及福利安全处于最低,但该指标增加迅速,这和现实社会的实际情况是相符的,社会保障和福利在1997-2007年间快速增加,成为城市生态适宜度的主要增长点。
(5)市域生态支撑波动较大,总体略有上升,说明在后期市域生态不能给予城市足够支撑,市域生态支撑将成为城市发展的瓶颈。
通过B层指标和D层指标之间的回归分析：
(1)人均生活能耗指标与建成区资源消耗与支撑值呈负相关,其余指标均呈正相关,若人为调控人均园林绿地面积指标、人均占地面积指标、人均生活用水量指标、人均生活能耗指标,均会较大幅度地提高建成区资源消耗与支撑的值,优先考虑人均园林绿地面积指标;
(2)综合考虑得出,建成区环境与污染负荷值主要受工业废水达标排放率和噪声达标覆盖率指标显著影响,若人为调控噪声达标覆盖率和工业废水达标排放率,会较大幅度地提高城区环境与污染负荷值,其中优先考虑调控噪声达标覆盖率指标；
(3)建成区效率效益值主要受人均财政收入指标显著影响,若人为调控人均财政收入指标,会较大幅度地提高建成区效率效益值；
(4)建成区社会保障及福利安全的值主要受居民人均可支配收入指标和人均城市道路面积指标显著影响,若人为调控居民人均可支配收入指标和人均城市道路面积指标,会较大幅度地提高建成区社会保障及福利安全的值,其中优先考虑调控居民人均可支配收入指标；
(5)市域生态支撑的值主要受全市人均自然非生物可再生能显著影响,若人为调控全市人均自然非生物可再生能指标,会较大幅度地提高市域生态支撑的值。
本文摆脱传统研究方法,将城市城区作为研究对象,真正意义上实现城市生态适宜度中“城市”二字,并且创新性地从建成区资源消耗与支撑、建成区环境状况与污染负荷、建成区效率效益、建成区社会保障及福利安全、市域生态支撑五个方面构建城市适宜度评价指标体系,充分体现了以城市为中心,以人为本的根本要求。同时本文采用模糊数学的方法对指标体系进行评价,更加客观合理。舍弃常规的层次分析法对指标权重的设定,改为模糊推理和模式识别的模糊评价方法,使结果更加合理和符合客观实际。
开展城市生态适宜度评价研究,可以促进城市生态的良性循环,协调城市发展与生态问题之间的矛盾,为解决城市问题提供了理论依据,评价结果可以作为城市调控与管理有力的依据。通过城市生态适宜度研究,不仅可以发现城市现有的问题,进行调控,还可以为城市的发展进行预测与规划,以促进城市的进一步发展。
As the main types of living environment, cities have been unprecedented developed. The development of cities have brought civilization and progress of human society, while it also has brought a significant impact on the ecological environment because of the concentrated material and energy, and intense human activities. It has resulted in a series of urban problems. Developing evaluation and study on the urban ecological suitability can improve the virtuous cycle of urban ecosystems, coordinate the contradiction between the urban development and ecological problems, provide theoretical basis for solving urban problems, and the evaluation results can be the strong basis of carrying out urban regulation and management. Therefore, researching of urban ecological suitability not only has ecological significance, but also has socio-economic importance.
In allusion to the "reverse ecology" issues in the process of development of cities, this paper evaluates cities from the ecological point of view and establishes index system of urban ecological suitability. Furthermore, by means of fuzzy inference and pattern recognition to evaluate and analyze the index system, it concludes evaluation model of urban ecological suitability. This, paper has accessed to a large number of documents and information firstly based on ecological principles and methods.Then it starts from an ecological point of view to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis on the urban ecological system, and make out the concept and connotation of urban ecological suitability. In addition, it has selected and screened33indicators from the five aspects such as resource supporting capacity of main city zone, environmental condition and pollution load of main city zone, efficiency benefits of main city zone, social security and social welfare of main city zone, and ecological support of city zone to set up the indicator system of urban ecosystem suitability. This article has adopted fuzzy logic evaluation methods for evaluation on index system of urban ecosystem suitability; it finally carried out defuzzification to obtain the evaluated value of urban ecosystem suitability through carrying out fuzzy to the system, establishing fuzzy inference system, developing fuzzy rules and carrying out fuzzy inference.
By the study on Yangzhou City's urban ecosystem suitability, we can see that:the urban ecosystem suitability of Yangzhou city during1997-2007was between0.482-0.684, it was in normal and good range, and the overall urban ecosystem suitability appears rising.
The evaluation results of each subsystem (layer B) show that:
1) In the early stages of the study period, the resource supporting capacity of main city zone was in the highest. But along with the time changing, the resource supporting capacity of main city zone has a little fluctuation; there has some decreasing in the middle. It shows that along with social development, the urban development has been at the cost of sacrificing resources, but as environmental awareness increased, this situation has changed a lot.
2) The environmental condition and pollution load of main city zone appear overall rising, but there are still some fluctuations, which are related to the transient of environmental pollution, so we should pay attention to the continuous monitoring and management of environmental protection.
3) The efficiency benefits of main city zone was in the "normal" range at the early study period,but along with the time changing, the index had a little increasing, the efficiency benefits of main city zone has became the new point of growth.
4) In the early stage of the study period, the social security and social welfare of main city zone was the lowest, but the index increased rapidly, which was in line with the actual conditions of the social reality.The social security and social welfare increased rapidly during1997-2007, which has became the main growth point of urban ecosystem suitability.
5) In the later study period, the ecological support of city zone was the lowest. It indicates that the latter ecological of city zone can not give adequate support to the city, the ecological support of city zone will become a bottleneck of urban development.
Through the Regression Analysis between the index system of layer B and layer D:
1) Urban per capita resource consumption was negatively associated with the main city resource consumption and support, other index was correctitude associated. If the artificial regulations of urban green space area per capita indicators, the urban per capita land use indicators, urban per capita water consumption targets and urban per capita energy consumption indicators will greatly improve the main urban areas the consumption of resources and support. The value of green space per capita area was priority advisement;
2) Taking into account, the main urban environment and pollution load is mainly affected by the value indicators of significant noise impact, if the artificial regulation of noise control standards and the industrial wastewater discharge standards would greatly improve the environment and the main city pollution load values, which give priority to control noise standard coverage indicators;
3) The value of the main urban areas mainly affected by the efficiency of effective indicators of per capita income of a significant financial impact, if the per capita revenue targets human controlled would be more greatly improve the efficiency of effective value of the main urban areas;
4) The value of social security of the main city and welfare is mainly affected by urban residents disposable income and per capita urban road area, if the artificial regulation of urban residents per capita disposable income and per capita urban road area will be more substantial improve the value of social security and welfare of the main city, which give priority to control urban residents per capita disposable income indicators;
5) Urban Ecological supported mainly impact by the value of the city's per capita natural renewable non-living resource. If renewable non-biological energy is controlled by the human, it would be more greatly increase the value of Urban Ecological support.
This article has got rid of the traditional research methods, it has put the main city zone as a research object, to truly realize the word "Urban" in the concept of urban ecosystem niche-fitness. It also innovatively set up the indicator system of urban ecosystem suitability based on the five aspects of resource supporting capacity of main city zone, environmental condition and pollution load of main city zone, efficiency benefits of main city zone, social security and social welfare of main city zone and ecological support of city zone, which has fully reflected the basic requirements of city-centered and people-centered. And at the same time, this paper has adopted fuzzy mathematical method to evaluate index system, which would brought more objective and reasonable results. Abandoning the setting of conventional AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to the index weight, to change it into a more reasonable fuzzy inference way and fuzzy evaluation way of pattern recognition, which will make the results more reasonable and more in line with objective reality.
To develop evaluation and study on the urban ecosystem niche-fitness can improve the virtuous cycle of urban ecosystems, coordinate the contradiction between the urban development and ecological problems, provide theoretical basis for solving urban problems, and the evaluation results can be the strong basis of carrying out urban regulation and management. By carrying out study on urban ecosystem suitability,we not only can find out the existing problems before carrying out adjustment, but also can carry out prediction and planning for urban development, so as to promote further development of the city.
引文
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