基于熵值修正G1法的我国电煤供应链风险研究
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摘要
在国民经济发展中,煤炭是国家的重要战略能源之一,且我国的经济结构以重工业为主,随着高耗能产业的迅猛发展,相关行业对电煤的需求也呈现快速增长的趋势,而我国发电以火电为主,因此保障电煤供应链的安全运作对满足发电需求至关重要。由于我国资源分布与消费地之间的逆向分布,导致煤炭运输呈现“北煤南运”“西煤东运”的运输格局。为了保障煤炭能够顺利地从煤炭储藏地运往需求消费地区,保持电煤供给,保证国家电力通畅,就必须全面深入地对整条电煤供应链系统进行研究分析。因此,本文在此背景下展开对我国电煤供应链风险研究,理论和现实意义都十分重大。
电煤供应链是一个复杂的大系统,包括上游的煤炭供应方、中游的物流服务提供者和下游的火力发电厂,链线较长、环节也非常多。本文在对我国电煤供应链进行界定分析的基础上,对我国电煤供应链风险因素进行了分析与识别。同时,在考虑指标的科学性、全面性及数据的可得性等因素的基础上,本文运用定量与定性相结合的方法构建了我国电煤供应链风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,本文广泛收集整理数据,并创新性地引入了熵值修正G1模型对我国电力煤炭供应链进行了风险评估,并有针对性的提出了改善我国电力煤炭供应链的对策及建议。
In the development of national economy, coal is one of the important strategic energy. And with the rapid development of energy-intensive industries, since the economy structure in China is based on the heavy industries, the demand for coal in related industries is growing rapidly. However our power generation is mainly by thermal power, so it is of upmost important to guarantee the smooth operation of the coal supply chain for the demand of generation. For the distribution of resources and consumption is imbalanced, resulting transportation pattern of coal from north to south and west to east. In order to ensure the coal smoothly transported from stored areas to consumption areas, ensure the electricity-coal supply, ensure the state power unobstructed, we must analyze the whole power coal supply chain system thoroughly. On this background, this article focuses on the risk of China's electricity-coal supply chains and has significant theoretical and practical values.
Electricity-coal supply chain is a large complicated system, including the upstream of coal supplier, middle stream of logistics service providers and downstream of coal-fired power stations. Because of the long length and large number of links, it's quite difficult to do supply chain risk assessment and management. On the basis of defining and analyzing the supply chain of China's electricity-coal, synthetically using Delphi method, decomposition method, risk questionnaire, this paper identifies and analyzes the risk of electricity-coal supply chains. At the same time, considering the scientific, comprehensive principle and index data availability of factors, this paper establishes the index system of China's electricity-coal supply chain risk assessment using quantitative and qualitative methods. On this basis, this paper widely collects data, and innovatively introduced the entropy model modified G1 to assess the risk of coal supply chain, and proposes strategies and suggestions to improve China's electricity-coal supply chain.
电煤供应链是一个复杂的大系统,包括上游的煤炭供应方、中游的物流服务提供者和下游的火力发电厂,链线较长、环节也非常多。本文在对我国电煤供应链进行界定分析的基础上,对我国电煤供应链风险因素进行了分析与识别。同时,在考虑指标的科学性、全面性及数据的可得性等因素的基础上,本文运用定量与定性相结合的方法构建了我国电煤供应链风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,本文广泛收集整理数据,并创新性地引入了熵值修正G1模型对我国电力煤炭供应链进行了风险评估,并有针对性的提出了改善我国电力煤炭供应链的对策及建议。
In the development of national economy, coal is one of the important strategic energy. And with the rapid development of energy-intensive industries, since the economy structure in China is based on the heavy industries, the demand for coal in related industries is growing rapidly. However our power generation is mainly by thermal power, so it is of upmost important to guarantee the smooth operation of the coal supply chain for the demand of generation. For the distribution of resources and consumption is imbalanced, resulting transportation pattern of coal from north to south and west to east. In order to ensure the coal smoothly transported from stored areas to consumption areas, ensure the electricity-coal supply, ensure the state power unobstructed, we must analyze the whole power coal supply chain system thoroughly. On this background, this article focuses on the risk of China's electricity-coal supply chains and has significant theoretical and practical values.
Electricity-coal supply chain is a large complicated system, including the upstream of coal supplier, middle stream of logistics service providers and downstream of coal-fired power stations. Because of the long length and large number of links, it's quite difficult to do supply chain risk assessment and management. On the basis of defining and analyzing the supply chain of China's electricity-coal, synthetically using Delphi method, decomposition method, risk questionnaire, this paper identifies and analyzes the risk of electricity-coal supply chains. At the same time, considering the scientific, comprehensive principle and index data availability of factors, this paper establishes the index system of China's electricity-coal supply chain risk assessment using quantitative and qualitative methods. On this basis, this paper widely collects data, and innovatively introduced the entropy model modified G1 to assess the risk of coal supply chain, and proposes strategies and suggestions to improve China's electricity-coal supply chain.
引文
[1]郭亚军.综合评价理论与方法[M].北京：科学出版社,2008,44-74.
[2]郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2007.
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[4]陈洁,吕靖,王尧.供应链环节划分下的电煤物流风险评估和管控研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011.21(2).
[5]刘洋.基于W_SVM的我国电力煤炭供应链风险评价：(硕士学位论文),大连：大连海事大学,2011.
[6]迟国泰,祝志川,张玉玲.基于熵权_G1法的科技评价模型及实证研究.科学学研究,2008.26(6).
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[8]中国能源信息网http://www.nengyuan.net/
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[12]李刚.基于熵值修正G1组合赋权的科技评价模型及实证[J].软科学,2010,24(5)
[13]李永卓.基于战略联盟的煤电供应链管理研究[J].中国矿业,2010.12.
[14]刘建,郑双忠,邓云峰,李安贵,宋存义.基于G1法的应急能力评估指标权重的确定[J].中国安全科学学报,2006.16(1).
[15]李欢.供应链风险研究：(硕士学位论文),成都：电子科技大学,2005.
[16]王天虹,宋业新,宋长青.基于模糊修正熵权TOPSIS的战时装备供应链风险评估[J].计算机与数字工程,2012.2.
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[20]Helen Peck and Uta Jottne. Risk Management In the Supply Chain. Cranfield Centre for Logistics and Transportation[R].2002(12):77-79.
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[26]Stan Smith. Applying Risk Management to The Supply Chain. Los Angeles Convention Center[J].2005(4):101-102.
[27]周健奇,刘伟,郑毅.煤炭供应链管理是国有煤炭企业物流公司的发展方向[J].中国煤炭,2010,36(5).
[28]马士华,林勇.供应链管理(第二版)[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2009.
[30]Hallikas J, Kavronenb I, Pulkkinenb U, Virolainen V. M. Risk management Processes in supplier networks[J].Production Economies,2004,(90):47-58.
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[32]晚春东.供应链系统运行整体风险评估指标体系[J].工业工程,2008(5).
[33]倪燕翎,李海婴,燕翔.供应链风险管理与企业风险管理之比较[J].物流技术2004(12).
[34]张磷.论基于供应链思想的煤炭企业物流管理[J].中国矿业,2005,14(8)：26-28.
[35]Harland, C.M. Supply chain management:Relationships chains and networks, British Journal of Management,1996, No.7, P63-80.
[36]蔡玺玉.影响我国电煤供给的主要量化因素分析[J].中国煤炭,2007,33(5).
[37]邱映贵.供应链风险传递及其控制研究：(硕士学位论文),武汉,武汉理工大学,2010.
[38]Deloitte. Supply chain risk management[R].2004. www.deloitte.com.
[39]Prater, Edmund, Markus Biehl,Michael A. Smith.International Supply Chain Agility, Tradeoffs between Flexibility and Uncertainty[J].International Journal of Operations and Production Management,2001(5/6):823-839.
[40]侯杰.我国煤炭行业供应链风险识别与控制研究[J].煤炭经济研究.2011,31(1).
[41]潘文荣.供应链风险识别与评估[J].北方经济,2006(8).
[42]孙雅萍.对中国南方特大雪灾的成因分析及思考[J].国土自然资源研究,2009(2).
[43]耿殿明,傅克俊.大型煤炭企业集团供应链风险的系统识别及防范[J].管理实践,2008(12).
[44]刘卫国.企业供应链风险评估研究：(硕士学位论文),汕头,汕头大学,2002.
[45]宁钟.供应链脆弱性的影响因索及其管理原则[J].中国流通经济.2004(4).
[46]黄毅.打造我国电煤的安全供应链[J].港口经济.2008(6).
[47]叶春.理顺电煤供应链[J].中国发电.2008(9).
[48]电煤供应链的脆弱点评.http://www.chinairn. com/doc/70310/521986.html
[49]苗俊明,李树军,张晓亮,马珍杰.大型电煤企业供应链风险管控保障探析[J].新财经·上半月.2011(5).
[50]任林洁.汽车制造业战略供应商评价方法——基于熵权G1的多层次综合评价法[J].汽车工程师.2009(9).
[51]Hendricks KB, Singhal VR. An empirical analysis of the effect of supply chain disruptions on long-run stock price performance and equity risk of the firm[J]. Production and Operations Management,2005,14(1).
[52]王学军,郭亚军,赵礼强.一种动态组合评价方法及其在供应商选择中的应用[J].管理评论,2005,(12)：40-43.
[53]焦蒙敏,蒙少东.供应链风险的识别与度量体系[J].物流科技,2006,29(6)：135-139.
[54]Chopra S, Meindl P. Supply Chain Management:Strategy, Planning, and Operations[M]. Upper Saddle River, NJ:Prentice-Hall,2001.
[55]Paul R. Kleindorfer and Luk N. Van Wassenhove, Managing Risk in Global Supply Chains. Cambridge University Press[J].2004(6).
[56]刘敏.供应链战略合作伙伴的评估及风险防范：(硕士学位论文),武汉：武汉理工大学,2003,56-68.
[57]刘浩华.供应链风险管理[M].北京：中国物资出版社.2009.9.
[58]刘永胜.供应链风险预警机制[M].北京：中国物资出版社.2007.6.
[59]杨华龙,刘进平.供应链管理[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2007.9.
[2]郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2007.
[3]艾新,陈铁东.我国电煤供应链特点及问题分析[J].现代企业文化.2009(18).
[4]陈洁,吕靖,王尧.供应链环节划分下的电煤物流风险评估和管控研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011.21(2).
[5]刘洋.基于W_SVM的我国电力煤炭供应链风险评价：(硕士学位论文),大连：大连海事大学,2011.
[6]迟国泰,祝志川,张玉玲.基于熵权_G1法的科技评价模型及实证研究.科学学研究,2008.26(6).
[7]国际煤炭网http://www.in-en.com/coal/
[8]中国能源信息网http://www.nengyuan.net/
[9]马林.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险识别、评估与一体化管理研究：(博士学位论文),杭州：浙江大学,2005.
[10]汪克夷,栾金昶,武慧硕.基于组合客观赋权法的科技评价研究[J].科技进步与对策.2009.26(6).
[11]朱帮助.基于熵权的供应链风险模糊综合评价[J].生产力研究,2008.23.
[12]李刚.基于熵值修正G1组合赋权的科技评价模型及实证[J].软科学,2010,24(5)
[13]李永卓.基于战略联盟的煤电供应链管理研究[J].中国矿业,2010.12.
[14]刘建,郑双忠,邓云峰,李安贵,宋存义.基于G1法的应急能力评估指标权重的确定[J].中国安全科学学报,2006.16(1).
[15]李欢.供应链风险研究：(硕士学位论文),成都：电子科技大学,2005.
[16]王天虹,宋业新,宋长青.基于模糊修正熵权TOPSIS的战时装备供应链风险评估[J].计算机与数字工程,2012.2.
[17]余昌仁,杨自平,谢纬.基于熵的供应链内部风险分析及管理[J].当代经济,2006.9.
[18]Rao. S., Goldsby. T. Supply chain risks:a review and typology [J]. International Journal of Logistics Management,2009,20(1):97-123.
[19]Harland C, Brenchley R, Walker H. Risk in supply networks[J]. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management,2003,9(2):51-62.
[20]Helen Peck and Uta Jottne. Risk Management In the Supply Chain. Cranfield Centre for Logistics and Transportation[R].2002(12):77-79.
[21]闫斌.以保障电煤供应为目标的电煤供应链协调机制研究：(硕士学位论文),北京：华北电力大学,2010.
[22]赵晓丽.电煤供应链合作与冲突机理研究[M].2008.哈尔滨工业大学出版社.
[23]杨红伟.我国煤炭供应链的基本结构及风险分析[J].神州,2012(2).
[24]丁伟东,刘凯,贺国先.供应链风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003(4)：24-27.
[25]杨海贤,李新威.改善电煤供应链[J].中国电力企业管理,2004(7).
[26]Stan Smith. Applying Risk Management to The Supply Chain. Los Angeles Convention Center[J].2005(4):101-102.
[27]周健奇,刘伟,郑毅.煤炭供应链管理是国有煤炭企业物流公司的发展方向[J].中国煤炭,2010,36(5).
[28]马士华,林勇.供应链管理(第二版)[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2009.
[30]Hallikas J, Kavronenb I, Pulkkinenb U, Virolainen V. M. Risk management Processes in supplier networks[J].Production Economies,2004,(90):47-58.
[31]张鹏.中国电煤供应链的运输网络均衡研究：(硕士学位论文),北京,清华大学,2009.
[32]晚春东.供应链系统运行整体风险评估指标体系[J].工业工程,2008(5).
[33]倪燕翎,李海婴,燕翔.供应链风险管理与企业风险管理之比较[J].物流技术2004(12).
[34]张磷.论基于供应链思想的煤炭企业物流管理[J].中国矿业,2005,14(8)：26-28.
[35]Harland, C.M. Supply chain management:Relationships chains and networks, British Journal of Management,1996, No.7, P63-80.
[36]蔡玺玉.影响我国电煤供给的主要量化因素分析[J].中国煤炭,2007,33(5).
[37]邱映贵.供应链风险传递及其控制研究：(硕士学位论文),武汉,武汉理工大学,2010.
[38]Deloitte. Supply chain risk management[R].2004. www.deloitte.com.
[39]Prater, Edmund, Markus Biehl,Michael A. Smith.International Supply Chain Agility, Tradeoffs between Flexibility and Uncertainty[J].International Journal of Operations and Production Management,2001(5/6):823-839.
[40]侯杰.我国煤炭行业供应链风险识别与控制研究[J].煤炭经济研究.2011,31(1).
[41]潘文荣.供应链风险识别与评估[J].北方经济,2006(8).
[42]孙雅萍.对中国南方特大雪灾的成因分析及思考[J].国土自然资源研究,2009(2).
[43]耿殿明,傅克俊.大型煤炭企业集团供应链风险的系统识别及防范[J].管理实践,2008(12).
[44]刘卫国.企业供应链风险评估研究：(硕士学位论文),汕头,汕头大学,2002.
[45]宁钟.供应链脆弱性的影响因索及其管理原则[J].中国流通经济.2004(4).
[46]黄毅.打造我国电煤的安全供应链[J].港口经济.2008(6).
[47]叶春.理顺电煤供应链[J].中国发电.2008(9).
[48]电煤供应链的脆弱点评.http://www.chinairn. com/doc/70310/521986.html
[49]苗俊明,李树军,张晓亮,马珍杰.大型电煤企业供应链风险管控保障探析[J].新财经·上半月.2011(5).
[50]任林洁.汽车制造业战略供应商评价方法——基于熵权G1的多层次综合评价法[J].汽车工程师.2009(9).
[51]Hendricks KB, Singhal VR. An empirical analysis of the effect of supply chain disruptions on long-run stock price performance and equity risk of the firm[J]. Production and Operations Management,2005,14(1).
[52]王学军,郭亚军,赵礼强.一种动态组合评价方法及其在供应商选择中的应用[J].管理评论,2005,(12)：40-43.
[53]焦蒙敏,蒙少东.供应链风险的识别与度量体系[J].物流科技,2006,29(6)：135-139.
[54]Chopra S, Meindl P. Supply Chain Management:Strategy, Planning, and Operations[M]. Upper Saddle River, NJ:Prentice-Hall,2001.
[55]Paul R. Kleindorfer and Luk N. Van Wassenhove, Managing Risk in Global Supply Chains. Cambridge University Press[J].2004(6).
[56]刘敏.供应链战略合作伙伴的评估及风险防范：(硕士学位论文),武汉：武汉理工大学,2003,56-68.
[57]刘浩华.供应链风险管理[M].北京：中国物资出版社.2009.9.
[58]刘永胜.供应链风险预警机制[M].北京：中国物资出版社.2007.6.
[59]杨华龙,刘进平.供应链管理[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2007.9.