铁路钢桥全寿命过程可靠性分析方法研究
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摘要
桥梁结构设计的基本任务是以必要的可靠性,经济性来满足结构功能要求,结构生命周期是可靠性形成的过程。结构的全寿命周期,是指一个结构从设计、制造、施工到投入使用,再到使用若干年后结构性能逐步退化的整个时间历程。结构全寿命过程不同阶段相互联系,相互影响,存在相辅相成的关系,共同形成一个有机整体。因此,以可靠性理论为基础的全寿命过程研究,对于桥梁结构的经济性、耐久性以及科学管理都有非常重要的现实意义。
本文从铁路钢桥设计方法入手,在分析国内外极限状态设计规范的应用现状基础上,对铁路钢桥设计、制造和服役全寿命过程的可靠性进行系统研究,主要研究成果如下:
(1)整理归纳各种计算可靠度方法,分析各种计算方法的使用范围及优缺点,推荐采用一次二阶矩法即JC法进行桥梁结构可靠指标的计算。
(2)完成桥梁常用钢材Q345qD、Q370qE和Q420qE材料性能统计特征分析、几何参数不定性和计算模式不定性分析,得到了结构构件抗力统计参数。
(3)得到当前铁路钢桥承载能力极限状态校准目标可靠指标值:对于主要为延性破坏的铁路钢桥而言,安全等级为一级、二级、三级的目标可靠指标分别取4.7、4.2和3.7。此时,抗力分项系数取1.35,恒载和活载的分项系数分别取1.2和1.4。
(4)采用类比法,提出安全等级为一级、二级、三级的铁路工程结构正常使用极限状态目标可靠指标分别为2.3、2.0和1.7的建议;通过对正常使用极限状态进行分析,提出在提高列车载重量和运行速度条件下,平稳性指标和舒适度是竖向刚度的主要控制因素;钢梁发生横向共振与蛇行运动波长和车速有关。
(5)钢梁制造工艺和人为失误影响钢梁制造质量可靠性。目前我国钢桥制造质量分布函数是服从均值为1.12,标准差为0.56的对数正态分布,均值越大,制造质量越好;并得到钢桥质量影响系数Z w。通过灵敏度分析,可知人为失误的主要原因是工期、人员素质、组织管理三个因素,进而推导出人为失误率通用计算方程;对制造过程中事故引起的风险水平进行分级,将人为失误率与其对应的损失后果结合,构造风险矩阵,并提供相应风险对策。
(6)铁路钢桥等效应力幅可以采取Weibull分布。在基于S—N曲线和基于线弹性断裂力学两种疲劳可靠性分析方法中,增加制造质量影响系数Z w,建立制造过程影响使用可靠性的联系。
(7)完善了桥梁结构全寿命过程动态可靠度变化规律曲线,建议采用Weibull分布函数和马尔可夫链模型实现桥梁结构全寿命过程可靠度分析。
The basic task of bridge structures design is to meet the needs of structural function with requirement reliability at the most economical way and life cycle is the establishment of reliability. The whole life cycle of structure is the time history which is from design, fabrication and construction to use and insufficiency performance of structural after some years used. The different stages of the whole structural life are the process of interaction and mutual influence and complementary and an organic whole is formed. Therefore, research on the life cycle based on reliability theory has an important practical meaning for the economical efficiency and durability and scientific management of bridge structures.
Based on the evolution history of design methods and applied conditions of limit states design codes from home and abroad, the paper gives system study on the design reliability indexes and process of manufacturing operation and reliability of whole life cycle for steel railway bridges. The main research achievements are read as follows:
(1) All kinds of calculated methods for the reliability index with their serviceable range, merits and drawbacks are arranged and analyzed. The first order second moment method (JC method) is found to be suitable for the bridge structures.
(2) Material properties uncertainty of different materials like Q345qD、Q370qE and Q420qE are derived from the analysis. With the geometric uncertainty and calculation mode uncertainty, the statistical parameters for the resistance of structural member are obtained.
(3) The target reliability indexes of ultimate limit states are proposed according to the calibration. For the steel railway bridges with ductile fracture, the target reliability index of the first-level, second-level, third-level of safety classes are separately 4.7、4.2 and 3.7. At the meantime, the partial factors of dead load and live load and resistance are suggested as 1.35、1.2 and 1.4.
(4) Based on analogism, 2.3、2.0 and 1.7 are proposed to be the target reliability indexes of serviceability limit states for first-level, second-level, third-level of safety classes. According to analysis of serviceability limit states, vehicle ride comfort and stability are the governing factors under the condition of increasing train load and running speed. Whether the lateral resonance occurs or not has something with the wavelength of hunting motion and running speed of locomotive.
(5) Manufacture quality reliability of steel bridge is depended on the reliability of workmanship and human’s operation. At the moment, the cumulative function of manufacturing quality in our country is lognormal distribution, of which the mean is 1.12 and the standard deviation is 0.56, the larger of the mean value, the better of the fabrication quality. Most of all, quality impact factor Z w is proposed. According to sensitivity analysis, it is found that time and disposition and management are the main impact factors on human error. As a result, the general function of human error is deduced. Meanwhile, risk levels provoked by accidents from manufacturing are classified. At last, the paper combines human error and its loss, constitutes risk matrix and supplies countermeasures in the face of risk.
(6) The equivalent stress range of steel railway bridges can be analyzed by Weibull distribution. During the fatigue reliability analysis with S-N curve and linear elastic fracture mechanics, the relation between manufacture and serviceability is established with the quality impact factor Z w.
(7) Lifetime variation curve of the time-dependent reliability is completed in the paper and Weibull distribution function and the Markov chain model can be used to realize the reliability analysis of life cycle for bridge structures.
本文从铁路钢桥设计方法入手,在分析国内外极限状态设计规范的应用现状基础上,对铁路钢桥设计、制造和服役全寿命过程的可靠性进行系统研究,主要研究成果如下:
(1)整理归纳各种计算可靠度方法,分析各种计算方法的使用范围及优缺点,推荐采用一次二阶矩法即JC法进行桥梁结构可靠指标的计算。
(2)完成桥梁常用钢材Q345qD、Q370qE和Q420qE材料性能统计特征分析、几何参数不定性和计算模式不定性分析,得到了结构构件抗力统计参数。
(3)得到当前铁路钢桥承载能力极限状态校准目标可靠指标值:对于主要为延性破坏的铁路钢桥而言,安全等级为一级、二级、三级的目标可靠指标分别取4.7、4.2和3.7。此时,抗力分项系数取1.35,恒载和活载的分项系数分别取1.2和1.4。
(4)采用类比法,提出安全等级为一级、二级、三级的铁路工程结构正常使用极限状态目标可靠指标分别为2.3、2.0和1.7的建议;通过对正常使用极限状态进行分析,提出在提高列车载重量和运行速度条件下,平稳性指标和舒适度是竖向刚度的主要控制因素;钢梁发生横向共振与蛇行运动波长和车速有关。
(5)钢梁制造工艺和人为失误影响钢梁制造质量可靠性。目前我国钢桥制造质量分布函数是服从均值为1.12,标准差为0.56的对数正态分布,均值越大,制造质量越好;并得到钢桥质量影响系数Z w。通过灵敏度分析,可知人为失误的主要原因是工期、人员素质、组织管理三个因素,进而推导出人为失误率通用计算方程;对制造过程中事故引起的风险水平进行分级,将人为失误率与其对应的损失后果结合,构造风险矩阵,并提供相应风险对策。
(6)铁路钢桥等效应力幅可以采取Weibull分布。在基于S—N曲线和基于线弹性断裂力学两种疲劳可靠性分析方法中,增加制造质量影响系数Z w,建立制造过程影响使用可靠性的联系。
(7)完善了桥梁结构全寿命过程动态可靠度变化规律曲线,建议采用Weibull分布函数和马尔可夫链模型实现桥梁结构全寿命过程可靠度分析。
The basic task of bridge structures design is to meet the needs of structural function with requirement reliability at the most economical way and life cycle is the establishment of reliability. The whole life cycle of structure is the time history which is from design, fabrication and construction to use and insufficiency performance of structural after some years used. The different stages of the whole structural life are the process of interaction and mutual influence and complementary and an organic whole is formed. Therefore, research on the life cycle based on reliability theory has an important practical meaning for the economical efficiency and durability and scientific management of bridge structures.
Based on the evolution history of design methods and applied conditions of limit states design codes from home and abroad, the paper gives system study on the design reliability indexes and process of manufacturing operation and reliability of whole life cycle for steel railway bridges. The main research achievements are read as follows:
(1) All kinds of calculated methods for the reliability index with their serviceable range, merits and drawbacks are arranged and analyzed. The first order second moment method (JC method) is found to be suitable for the bridge structures.
(2) Material properties uncertainty of different materials like Q345qD、Q370qE and Q420qE are derived from the analysis. With the geometric uncertainty and calculation mode uncertainty, the statistical parameters for the resistance of structural member are obtained.
(3) The target reliability indexes of ultimate limit states are proposed according to the calibration. For the steel railway bridges with ductile fracture, the target reliability index of the first-level, second-level, third-level of safety classes are separately 4.7、4.2 and 3.7. At the meantime, the partial factors of dead load and live load and resistance are suggested as 1.35、1.2 and 1.4.
(4) Based on analogism, 2.3、2.0 and 1.7 are proposed to be the target reliability indexes of serviceability limit states for first-level, second-level, third-level of safety classes. According to analysis of serviceability limit states, vehicle ride comfort and stability are the governing factors under the condition of increasing train load and running speed. Whether the lateral resonance occurs or not has something with the wavelength of hunting motion and running speed of locomotive.
(5) Manufacture quality reliability of steel bridge is depended on the reliability of workmanship and human’s operation. At the moment, the cumulative function of manufacturing quality in our country is lognormal distribution, of which the mean is 1.12 and the standard deviation is 0.56, the larger of the mean value, the better of the fabrication quality. Most of all, quality impact factor Z w is proposed. According to sensitivity analysis, it is found that time and disposition and management are the main impact factors on human error. As a result, the general function of human error is deduced. Meanwhile, risk levels provoked by accidents from manufacturing are classified. At last, the paper combines human error and its loss, constitutes risk matrix and supplies countermeasures in the face of risk.
(6) The equivalent stress range of steel railway bridges can be analyzed by Weibull distribution. During the fatigue reliability analysis with S-N curve and linear elastic fracture mechanics, the relation between manufacture and serviceability is established with the quality impact factor Z w.
(7) Lifetime variation curve of the time-dependent reliability is completed in the paper and Weibull distribution function and the Markov chain model can be used to realize the reliability analysis of life cycle for bridge structures.
引文
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