中国贸易增长模式的调整
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摘要
自1978年改革开放以来,中国对外贸易得到迅速发展,并成为名符其实的世界贸易大国,对外贸易也成为中国经济增长的加速器。但自20世纪90年代以来,中国对外贸易中出现了一个严峻的问题――国际贸易摩擦不断,这严重地困扰和冲击着中国贸易增长,也威胁着中国经济的可持续发展。因而,中国贸易摩擦和贸易增长模式的问题引起了人们的广泛关注。本文试图从贸易摩擦的角度,探讨影响我国贸易增长模式的主要因素,并探索一条适宜于中国现阶段的贸易增长模式,使得中国能够在贸易摩擦高发阶段的背景下,实现对外贸易的可持续发展,促进中国经济增长。
本文首先对贸易增长模式的涵义进行了界定:贸易增长模式是指一国的进出口贸易(尤其指出口贸易)实现长期可持续增长所依赖的增长源泉构成、增长机制及其路径。随后,本文对中国改革开放以来的贸易增长模式和贸易摩擦进行了回顾,并针对中国的现实国情,从历史的、理论的、国际比较的、实证研究的视角,对我国的贸易增长与贸易增长模式进行研究。
本文重点从以下三个方面对中国贸易增长模式进行了研究。第一,制度变迁对中国贸易增长模式的决定作用。通过对中国贸易增长模式的演变特点和规律进行研究,笔者发现对外开放对我国贸易增长模式的影响较大。因此,为使中国对外贸易能够可持续发展,应实时调整国家贸易政策,根据国内外需求,发展和谐增长的模式。第二,技术进步对贸易增长和贸易增长模式的影响。通过对中国技术进步与中国出口增长之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明,中国技术进步与中国出口增长之间具有长期的均衡关系(协整关系),而且技术进步是出口增长的格兰杰成因。研发投入是促进科技进步的重要因素,从理论上讲,研发投入也会影响着出口贸易。在中国,研发投入与出口贸易二者之间的关系如何呢?通过对中国研发投入和中国高新技术产品出口的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,中国研发投入和中国高新技术产品出口之间呈正向相关。因此,加大研发投入,可以有效地促进中国高新技术产品出口。第三,外商直接投资对贸易增长和贸易增长模式的影响。通过对外商直接投资对中国贸易增长和贸易增长模式的影响进行分析,结果表明:外商直接投资对对外贸易的影响要大于对外贸易对外商直接投资的影响;单纯外商直接投资与出口或外商直接投资与进口之间存在着的双向因果关系,远不如外商直接投资与进出口贸易两者之间的双向因果联系更明显。
根据以上研究结果,针对中国入世后面临不断增多的贸易摩擦的情势,本文指出了当前中国贸易增长模式调整的方向:第一,在中国对外贸易战略发展方面,考虑贸易摩擦对中国对外贸易企业和产业的长远影响,立足于提升中国贸易出口企业和产业的国际竞争力,改善产业结构,提高出口产品的附加值;对重点产业和一般出口产业实施差异化的政策;对中国地区贸易增长的差距,实施不同的产业结构组合以及不同的鼓励和限制措施。加入WTO后,中国企业可直接借鉴国际规则,使贸易企业按照国际贸易规则从事贸易活动。第二,中国作为一个后发国家,可以利用后发优势发展中国对外贸易。通过对国外技术的引进、模仿与吸收,加速中国技术要素的积累;通过增加研发补贴帮助高新技术产业获取技术优势和市场份额,促进中国产业的结构升级。第三,在加入WTO的背景下,中国对于外商直接投资的指导方向,应考虑和国家的外贸发展战略和产业发展方向相一致,这有利于减少中国贸易摩擦,有利于中国贸易增长模式的调整。为此,应当引导外商增加对技术密集型产业的投资,相应地减少对一般加工产业的投资;引导外资投向主导产业和支柱产业;引导、鼓励外商加大对第三产业的投资。
China’s foreign trade has made great progress since 1978, as the result she has achieved the success of being the third country in the trade volume of the world. However, trade frictions trouble China’s export enterprises and government, which have different forms such as antidumpling, technological barriers and others from the 1990s before China’s access to the World Trade Organization. These trade frictions have attracted attention of different levels of government, managers and also economic researchers. They put forward a lot of suggestions and did some investigations and models to study the phenomena from different points of view. My study tries to research the growth patterns of foreign trade of our country while facing these trade frictions.
There is no clear definition for the growth patterns of trade accepted by most people. The basic explanation is given in the dissertation as follows: import and export of a country (especially export in China at present situation) can develop and enlarge with sustainability by some special mechanism and path– supportive factors.
At first the dissertation reviews the Chinese history of growth patterns of trade since open-door policy practice and trade frictions with increasing of the trade volume in export. Some methods are used to deepen the study, for instance, historical comparing method, theoretical method, method of similarity comparison, empirical analysis.
Then the dissertation emphasizes three fields. i) Institutional changes have played important role in the trade history of China after the year of 1978. The more outside to the world, the larger volume of trade, meanwhile we can find more trade frictions with other countries along with expansion of the volume in the export trade. Based on the insight of the trade frictions, China made some direct and indirect polices or some regulations to lead export industries and firms to enlarge the amount for export. ii) The dissertation analyses the causes of technology promoting trade from the angle of economics and draws a conclusion that technological progress can promote the exports. An empirical study of technology and trade proves that there is cointegration between China’s technology progress and export, and technological progress is also the reason of the increase of export. iii) The dissertation analyses the relations between foreign direct investment in China and foreign trade (import and export) of China by empirical study. The result reveals that FDI has more influence on import and export than the latter to the former. Import or export itself has less influence on FDI.So does FDI to import and export.
At last, the dissertation analyses the reasons and characteristics of trade frictions and barriers according to the WTO regulations, and concludes that China has to adjust the growth patterns of trade later on. The proposal for adjustment to the growth patterns of trade should be as follows: i) China’s adjustment strategy for trade patterns is to promote the international competitiveness in some supportive industries and export enterprises in order to gain more profits. ii) China as a developing country has its own advantages.She can introduce, imitate, and absorb advanced technology in order to accumulate the scare factors --technology. Try to develop high technology and enhance the trade with American, Japan and EU countries because they are the main market of China export commodities. R&D expenditure should be added more to help high-tech enterprises to gain more technology advantages and more market shares. iii) After entry to WTO, FDI should be used to some important and supportive industries and tertiary industries.
本文首先对贸易增长模式的涵义进行了界定:贸易增长模式是指一国的进出口贸易(尤其指出口贸易)实现长期可持续增长所依赖的增长源泉构成、增长机制及其路径。随后,本文对中国改革开放以来的贸易增长模式和贸易摩擦进行了回顾,并针对中国的现实国情,从历史的、理论的、国际比较的、实证研究的视角,对我国的贸易增长与贸易增长模式进行研究。
本文重点从以下三个方面对中国贸易增长模式进行了研究。第一,制度变迁对中国贸易增长模式的决定作用。通过对中国贸易增长模式的演变特点和规律进行研究,笔者发现对外开放对我国贸易增长模式的影响较大。因此,为使中国对外贸易能够可持续发展,应实时调整国家贸易政策,根据国内外需求,发展和谐增长的模式。第二,技术进步对贸易增长和贸易增长模式的影响。通过对中国技术进步与中国出口增长之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明,中国技术进步与中国出口增长之间具有长期的均衡关系(协整关系),而且技术进步是出口增长的格兰杰成因。研发投入是促进科技进步的重要因素,从理论上讲,研发投入也会影响着出口贸易。在中国,研发投入与出口贸易二者之间的关系如何呢?通过对中国研发投入和中国高新技术产品出口的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,中国研发投入和中国高新技术产品出口之间呈正向相关。因此,加大研发投入,可以有效地促进中国高新技术产品出口。第三,外商直接投资对贸易增长和贸易增长模式的影响。通过对外商直接投资对中国贸易增长和贸易增长模式的影响进行分析,结果表明:外商直接投资对对外贸易的影响要大于对外贸易对外商直接投资的影响;单纯外商直接投资与出口或外商直接投资与进口之间存在着的双向因果关系,远不如外商直接投资与进出口贸易两者之间的双向因果联系更明显。
根据以上研究结果,针对中国入世后面临不断增多的贸易摩擦的情势,本文指出了当前中国贸易增长模式调整的方向:第一,在中国对外贸易战略发展方面,考虑贸易摩擦对中国对外贸易企业和产业的长远影响,立足于提升中国贸易出口企业和产业的国际竞争力,改善产业结构,提高出口产品的附加值;对重点产业和一般出口产业实施差异化的政策;对中国地区贸易增长的差距,实施不同的产业结构组合以及不同的鼓励和限制措施。加入WTO后,中国企业可直接借鉴国际规则,使贸易企业按照国际贸易规则从事贸易活动。第二,中国作为一个后发国家,可以利用后发优势发展中国对外贸易。通过对国外技术的引进、模仿与吸收,加速中国技术要素的积累;通过增加研发补贴帮助高新技术产业获取技术优势和市场份额,促进中国产业的结构升级。第三,在加入WTO的背景下,中国对于外商直接投资的指导方向,应考虑和国家的外贸发展战略和产业发展方向相一致,这有利于减少中国贸易摩擦,有利于中国贸易增长模式的调整。为此,应当引导外商增加对技术密集型产业的投资,相应地减少对一般加工产业的投资;引导外资投向主导产业和支柱产业;引导、鼓励外商加大对第三产业的投资。
China’s foreign trade has made great progress since 1978, as the result she has achieved the success of being the third country in the trade volume of the world. However, trade frictions trouble China’s export enterprises and government, which have different forms such as antidumpling, technological barriers and others from the 1990s before China’s access to the World Trade Organization. These trade frictions have attracted attention of different levels of government, managers and also economic researchers. They put forward a lot of suggestions and did some investigations and models to study the phenomena from different points of view. My study tries to research the growth patterns of foreign trade of our country while facing these trade frictions.
There is no clear definition for the growth patterns of trade accepted by most people. The basic explanation is given in the dissertation as follows: import and export of a country (especially export in China at present situation) can develop and enlarge with sustainability by some special mechanism and path– supportive factors.
At first the dissertation reviews the Chinese history of growth patterns of trade since open-door policy practice and trade frictions with increasing of the trade volume in export. Some methods are used to deepen the study, for instance, historical comparing method, theoretical method, method of similarity comparison, empirical analysis.
Then the dissertation emphasizes three fields. i) Institutional changes have played important role in the trade history of China after the year of 1978. The more outside to the world, the larger volume of trade, meanwhile we can find more trade frictions with other countries along with expansion of the volume in the export trade. Based on the insight of the trade frictions, China made some direct and indirect polices or some regulations to lead export industries and firms to enlarge the amount for export. ii) The dissertation analyses the causes of technology promoting trade from the angle of economics and draws a conclusion that technological progress can promote the exports. An empirical study of technology and trade proves that there is cointegration between China’s technology progress and export, and technological progress is also the reason of the increase of export. iii) The dissertation analyses the relations between foreign direct investment in China and foreign trade (import and export) of China by empirical study. The result reveals that FDI has more influence on import and export than the latter to the former. Import or export itself has less influence on FDI.So does FDI to import and export.
At last, the dissertation analyses the reasons and characteristics of trade frictions and barriers according to the WTO regulations, and concludes that China has to adjust the growth patterns of trade later on. The proposal for adjustment to the growth patterns of trade should be as follows: i) China’s adjustment strategy for trade patterns is to promote the international competitiveness in some supportive industries and export enterprises in order to gain more profits. ii) China as a developing country has its own advantages.She can introduce, imitate, and absorb advanced technology in order to accumulate the scare factors --technology. Try to develop high technology and enhance the trade with American, Japan and EU countries because they are the main market of China export commodities. R&D expenditure should be added more to help high-tech enterprises to gain more technology advantages and more market shares. iii) After entry to WTO, FDI should be used to some important and supportive industries and tertiary industries.
引文
①中国科学发展报告2006.经济科学出版社.2006.p21
①托马斯﹒孟著,李琼译.英国得自对外贸易的财富.北京:华夏出版社,2006.p7
②同上,p36
①参阅:王亚飞.贸易摩擦研究综述.世界经济与政治.2006(8):17-21
①参阅:盛斌.中国对外贸易的政治经济分析.上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2002. 169-171, 379-384
①参阅:迈克尔·波特著.李明轩,邱如美译.国家竞争优势.华夏出版社.2003.p530-549
①参阅:迈克尔·波特著.李明轩,邱如美译.国家竞争优势.华夏出版社.2003.p529
①参阅:李钢,李俊.迈向贸易强国—中国外经贸战略的深化与升级.人民出版社,2006 p25-27
①参阅:李钢,李俊.迈向贸易强国—中国外经贸战略的深化与升级.人民出版社,2006 p27-29
①郑桂环等.中国贸易平衡波动研究.科学出版社.北京:2006.p55-66.
①http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/
①雅各布﹒瓦伊纳著,沈瑶译.倾销:国际贸易中的一个问题.北京:商务印书馆,2003.p4.
①杨仕辉.反倾销的国际比较、博弈与我国的对策研究.北京:科学出版社,2005.p29.
①http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/
②同上。
①胡方.日美经济摩擦的理论与实态-我国对日美贸易的对策与建议.武汉:武汉大学出版社,2001.p119-120
①易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用.北京:中国统计出版社,2002.143-155,166-185
①埃里克·伊兹拉莱维奇.姚海星译.当中国改变世界.北京:中信出版社,2005.p14
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②同上,p36
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①参阅:迈克尔·波特著.李明轩,邱如美译.国家竞争优势.华夏出版社.2003.p529
①参阅:李钢,李俊.迈向贸易强国—中国外经贸战略的深化与升级.人民出版社,2006 p25-27
①参阅:李钢,李俊.迈向贸易强国—中国外经贸战略的深化与升级.人民出版社,2006 p27-29
①郑桂环等.中国贸易平衡波动研究.科学出版社.北京:2006.p55-66.
①http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/
①雅各布﹒瓦伊纳著,沈瑶译.倾销:国际贸易中的一个问题.北京:商务印书馆,2003.p4.
①杨仕辉.反倾销的国际比较、博弈与我国的对策研究.北京:科学出版社,2005.p29.
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②同上。
①胡方.日美经济摩擦的理论与实态-我国对日美贸易的对策与建议.武汉:武汉大学出版社,2001.p119-120
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