武汉市机动车排放清单研究
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摘要
伴随着我国城市化和现代化进程的加快，我国机动车数量迅速增长，人们在享受机动车带来的便捷和效益的同时，也在承受机动车尾气对环境的污染和对人体健康带来的危害。一个良好的机动车污染控制管理体系，也能切实有效的控制机动车排气污染，经过多年的研究和实践，美国、日本和欧洲己形成较完善的机动车污染控制体系，建立了一系列完整的技术与管理相配套的制度。与之相比，我国还存在很大差距。
本文运用MOBILE6机动车排放因子模型模拟计算了武汉市机动车VOC、NO_X、C0、CO_2和PM的综合排放因子。从2000年到2015年，武汉市的机动车综合排放因子VOC、NO_X、CO、CO_2和PM分别降低了72％、69％、57％、0.6％、58％。虽然单车的平均排放因子在降低，但是由于在用车总量在不断增加，使得从排放总量上来看，污染物的总量还在不断增加。
通过MOBILE6模型在武汉市的运用可以发现，在确定一些输入值和根据实际情况修订外部数据文件时发现，基础数据的大量缺失给模型的应用带来了很大的困难，也给结果的输出带来了大量的不确定性。这些基础数据的缺乏，一方面暴露了国家在机动车污染管理上的欠缺，另一方面也暴露了武汉市机动车管理相关职能部门管理上诸多漏洞。由此，本文提出以下建议：强化在用机动车环保定期检验管理，确保在用车达标；积极推进武汉市机动车环保信息管理系统建设，建立机动车逐年动态数据库；加强对机动车报废的监管；逐步开展对车用燃料的监督管理；加强机动车环保监管机构和能力建设；及早制定机动车污染防治法规和规划；积极推动公众参与宣传教育。
值得指出的是，国内曾有多位学者运用MOBILE6模型分析过其他城市的排放因子，遇到的共同难题均是基础数据的收集难度大，使得模型输入的参数不能精准反映当地的实际状况。有的学者在研究过程中，为了节省人力、物力、财力，采用了单参数的灵敏度分析。通过这种方法，找出对排放影响最为突出的命令参数，简化输入方案。笔者在这里需要指出的是，诚然这是化繁为简的一种方法，但却忽视了参数与参数之间并不是完全独立的，许多参数之间存在着相关关系，故笔者认为化繁为简的方法有待进一步的探索。
With the fast development of modernization and civilization in China, the amount of vehicles become bigger and bigger. People enjoy the convenience and efficiency that the vehicles bring to them at the cost of the pollution to the environment and the harm to the health. A good vehicle emission control system can restrict the emission pollution efficiently, after many years research and practice, Comparative mature emission gas control systems have been established in The United States, Japan and Europe, so have the technology and the corresponding rules. China is a lower side comparing to these countries.
The Mobile6's emission factor module is used to calculate the VOC, NO_X , CO, CO_2 and PM integrative emission factor of the vehicle in Wuhan. They are reduced by 72%, 69%, 57%, 0.6%, 58% from 2000 to 2015. The single vehicle's average level is reducing, but the amount of the vehicles becomes more and more, which makes the total emission be increased year by year.
By exerting the Mobile6's module, a problem is discovered that the lack of the basic data not only brings difficulty to the module' s exertion but also makes the output uncertain. The lack of the data is caused by the weakness of the national management on emission and the shortage of the management in Wuhan. So suggestions are proposed: Be strict to the regular check for vehicles in order to make sure they can meet the requirement. A positive attitude should be taken to establish the active database every year, and reinforce the supervision to the broken vehicle. The fuel management should be supervised step by step. The vehicle environment managing mechanism and the ability construction should be reinforced. The vehicle pollution law should be established as soon as possible. The public propaganda and education should be promoted positively.
It should be pointed out that there have been many scholars analyzing other cities' emission factor with Mobile6, and the common difficulty is that basic data is hard to collect, leading that the input parameters can not reflect the local situation. Some scholars used single parameter sensitivity analysis to save the source. According the method, the most important parameter influencing the emission can be picked out to simplify the input project. It should be pointed out that although it is a method which makes things simple, it needs to be optimized in future since it neglects there are no independent relationships among the parameters.
本文运用MOBILE6机动车排放因子模型模拟计算了武汉市机动车VOC、NO_X、C0、CO_2和PM的综合排放因子。从2000年到2015年，武汉市的机动车综合排放因子VOC、NO_X、CO、CO_2和PM分别降低了72％、69％、57％、0.6％、58％。虽然单车的平均排放因子在降低，但是由于在用车总量在不断增加，使得从排放总量上来看，污染物的总量还在不断增加。
通过MOBILE6模型在武汉市的运用可以发现，在确定一些输入值和根据实际情况修订外部数据文件时发现，基础数据的大量缺失给模型的应用带来了很大的困难，也给结果的输出带来了大量的不确定性。这些基础数据的缺乏，一方面暴露了国家在机动车污染管理上的欠缺，另一方面也暴露了武汉市机动车管理相关职能部门管理上诸多漏洞。由此，本文提出以下建议：强化在用机动车环保定期检验管理，确保在用车达标；积极推进武汉市机动车环保信息管理系统建设，建立机动车逐年动态数据库；加强对机动车报废的监管；逐步开展对车用燃料的监督管理；加强机动车环保监管机构和能力建设；及早制定机动车污染防治法规和规划；积极推动公众参与宣传教育。
值得指出的是，国内曾有多位学者运用MOBILE6模型分析过其他城市的排放因子，遇到的共同难题均是基础数据的收集难度大，使得模型输入的参数不能精准反映当地的实际状况。有的学者在研究过程中，为了节省人力、物力、财力，采用了单参数的灵敏度分析。通过这种方法，找出对排放影响最为突出的命令参数，简化输入方案。笔者在这里需要指出的是，诚然这是化繁为简的一种方法，但却忽视了参数与参数之间并不是完全独立的，许多参数之间存在着相关关系，故笔者认为化繁为简的方法有待进一步的探索。
With the fast development of modernization and civilization in China, the amount of vehicles become bigger and bigger. People enjoy the convenience and efficiency that the vehicles bring to them at the cost of the pollution to the environment and the harm to the health. A good vehicle emission control system can restrict the emission pollution efficiently, after many years research and practice, Comparative mature emission gas control systems have been established in The United States, Japan and Europe, so have the technology and the corresponding rules. China is a lower side comparing to these countries.
The Mobile6's emission factor module is used to calculate the VOC, NO_X , CO, CO_2 and PM integrative emission factor of the vehicle in Wuhan. They are reduced by 72%, 69%, 57%, 0.6%, 58% from 2000 to 2015. The single vehicle's average level is reducing, but the amount of the vehicles becomes more and more, which makes the total emission be increased year by year.
By exerting the Mobile6's module, a problem is discovered that the lack of the basic data not only brings difficulty to the module' s exertion but also makes the output uncertain. The lack of the data is caused by the weakness of the national management on emission and the shortage of the management in Wuhan. So suggestions are proposed: Be strict to the regular check for vehicles in order to make sure they can meet the requirement. A positive attitude should be taken to establish the active database every year, and reinforce the supervision to the broken vehicle. The fuel management should be supervised step by step. The vehicle environment managing mechanism and the ability construction should be reinforced. The vehicle pollution law should be established as soon as possible. The public propaganda and education should be promoted positively.
It should be pointed out that there have been many scholars analyzing other cities' emission factor with Mobile6, and the common difficulty is that basic data is hard to collect, leading that the input parameters can not reflect the local situation. Some scholars used single parameter sensitivity analysis to save the source. According the method, the most important parameter influencing the emission can be picked out to simplify the input project. It should be pointed out that although it is a method which makes things simple, it needs to be optimized in future since it neglects there are no independent relationships among the parameters.
引文
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[2] 中华人民共和国行业标准．JTJ005-1996．公路建设项目环境影响评价规范(试行)
[3] 李兴虎等．《汽车环境保护技术》．北京航空航天大学出版社．2004．2
[4] 陈长虹，方翠贞，鲍仙华．上海市机动车排放污染负荷的估算．上海环境科学1997．6．Vol．16．No．6：26-29
[5] 吴小寅，陈莉．南宁市道路交通污染现状分析及对策．广西民族学院学报(自然科学版)．1999．2．Vol．5．No．1：66-68
[6] 蔡胜利，李彬，应巍．杭州市机动车尾气污染和控制对策．环境污染与防治．1998．2．Vol．21．No．1：33-35
[7] 傅立新，郝吉明，何东全等北京市机动车污染物排放特征．环境科学．2000．5，Vol．21，No．3：68-70
[8] 黄远峰，罗澎，何龙等人．深圳市机动车氮氧化物排放、环境空气污染预测和控制对策．中国环境监测．2001．2．Vol．17．No．1：7-10
[9] 陈金平．福州市机动车污染及其控制对策．福州环境．2001．4，Vol．18，No．2：35-37
[10] 鲁萍．锦州市区机动车尾气与空气污染相关性的探讨．辽宁城乡环境科技．2001．12，Vol．21．NO．6：43-44
[11] 任玉兰．鞍山市机动车尾气污染物排放量的估算．辽宁城乡环境科技．2003．10，Vol．23．No．S：34-36
[12] 乔卓，张安琪．沈阳市机动车尾气的污染影响和控制对策．环境保护科学．2003．4，Vol．29：8-9
[13] 赵凤琴，汤洁，李昭阳等．长春市大气中NOx污染现状和机动车排放污染分担率研究．吉林大学学报(地球科学版)．2005．3，Vol．35．No．2：243-247
[14] 赵立蔚，丁广德，熊宪英等．天津市机动车污染评估方法．城市环境与城市生态．2002，Vol．15．No．6：48-50
[15] 张丹宁，许立峰，仁毅宏等．南京市机动车排气污染现状分析．环境监测管理与技术．2004．10．Vol．16，No．S：11—15
[16] 郭丽辉，高原等．确定机动车排放因子的几种方法．云南环境科学．2004．4．No．23：191-192
[17] 邓顺熙，曹申存等．西安城市交通干道汽车污染物排放因子．交通环保．1999．8．Vo．120．No．4：7-10
[18] 王伯光，．张远航等．城市机动车排放因子隧道试验研究．环境科学．2001．3，Vol．22．No．2：55-59
[19] Sajal S. Pokharel.Gary A. Bishop, Donald H.Stedman, An on-road motor vehicle emissions inventory for Denver: an efficient alternative to modeling, Atmospheric Environment, 36 (2002): 5177-5184
[20] Hesham Rakha; Kyoungho Ahn; Antonio Trani Canadian Comparison of MOBILESa. MOBILE6.VT MICRO. and CMEM models for estimating hot-stabilized light-duty gasoline vehicle emission. Journal of Civil Engineering; Dec 2003; 30, 6; ProQuest Science Journals. 1010
[21] C David Cooper; Marten Arbrandt. Mobile Source Emission Inventories Monthly or Annual Average Inputs to MOBILE6, Journal of the Air&Waste Management Association; Aug 2004; 54, 8; ProQuest Science Journals, 1006
[22] Norman F.Robinson, William R.Pierson, et al.Comparision of MOBILE4.1 and MOBILES Predictions with Measurements of Vehicle Emission Factors in FORT McHENRY and TUSCARORA Mountain Tunnels
[23] 万涛，．于雷，裴文文等．捷达车实测排放因子和MOBILE6预测值的对比分析．交通环保．2005．4，Vol．26，No．2：11-14
[24] 王文，于雷，刘娟等．中巴车实测排放因子和MOBILE6预测值的对比分析．交通环保．2005．6．Vol．26．No．3：40-43
[25] 王文，于雷，杨方等．基于OEM技术的机动车行驶周期的研究．交通环保．2004．4，Vo．125．No．2．14-17
[26] 吴烨，郝吉明，傅立新等．澳门机动车排放清单．清华大学学报(自然科学版)．2002，Vol．42．No．12：1601-1604
[27] 傅立新，贺克斌，何东全等．MOBILE汽车源排放因子计算模式研究．环境科学学报．1997．10．Vol．17．No．4：474-479
[28] 何东全，郝吉明，贺克斌等．应用模式计算机动车排放囚子．环境科学．1998．5：7-10
[29] 王歧东，厂焰等．中国机动车排放模型的研究与展望．环境科学研究．2002．15
[30] 郝吉明，吴烨，傅立新等．中国城市机动车排放污染控制规划体系研究．应用气象学报．2002
[31] 王炜，项乔君，常玉林等．《城市交通系统育狐消耗与环境影响分析方法》．科学出版社．2002：12
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[33] 李修刚，杨晓光等．用于城市交通规划的机动车污染物排放因子．交通运输工程学报．2001．12，Vol．1．No．4
[34] 祝昌建．广州市机动车尾气排放系数及污染趋势探讨．中国环境科学．1997．6，Vol．17，No．3：216-219
[35] US Environmental Protection Agency. User's Guide to MOBILE6.1 and MOBILE6.2: Mobile Source Emission Factor Model, USEPA.2002
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[2] 中华人民共和国行业标准．JTJ005-1996．公路建设项目环境影响评价规范(试行)
[3] 李兴虎等．《汽车环境保护技术》．北京航空航天大学出版社．2004．2
[4] 陈长虹，方翠贞，鲍仙华．上海市机动车排放污染负荷的估算．上海环境科学1997．6．Vol．16．No．6：26-29
[5] 吴小寅，陈莉．南宁市道路交通污染现状分析及对策．广西民族学院学报(自然科学版)．1999．2．Vol．5．No．1：66-68
[6] 蔡胜利，李彬，应巍．杭州市机动车尾气污染和控制对策．环境污染与防治．1998．2．Vol．21．No．1：33-35
[7] 傅立新，郝吉明，何东全等北京市机动车污染物排放特征．环境科学．2000．5，Vol．21，No．3：68-70
[8] 黄远峰，罗澎，何龙等人．深圳市机动车氮氧化物排放、环境空气污染预测和控制对策．中国环境监测．2001．2．Vol．17．No．1：7-10
[9] 陈金平．福州市机动车污染及其控制对策．福州环境．2001．4，Vol．18，No．2：35-37
[10] 鲁萍．锦州市区机动车尾气与空气污染相关性的探讨．辽宁城乡环境科技．2001．12，Vol．21．NO．6：43-44
[11] 任玉兰．鞍山市机动车尾气污染物排放量的估算．辽宁城乡环境科技．2003．10，Vol．23．No．S：34-36
[12] 乔卓，张安琪．沈阳市机动车尾气的污染影响和控制对策．环境保护科学．2003．4，Vol．29：8-9
[13] 赵凤琴，汤洁，李昭阳等．长春市大气中NOx污染现状和机动车排放污染分担率研究．吉林大学学报(地球科学版)．2005．3，Vol．35．No．2：243-247
[14] 赵立蔚，丁广德，熊宪英等．天津市机动车污染评估方法．城市环境与城市生态．2002，Vol．15．No．6：48-50
[15] 张丹宁，许立峰，仁毅宏等．南京市机动车排气污染现状分析．环境监测管理与技术．2004．10．Vol．16，No．S：11—15
[16] 郭丽辉，高原等．确定机动车排放因子的几种方法．云南环境科学．2004．4．No．23：191-192
[17] 邓顺熙，曹申存等．西安城市交通干道汽车污染物排放因子．交通环保．1999．8．Vo．120．No．4：7-10
[18] 王伯光，．张远航等．城市机动车排放因子隧道试验研究．环境科学．2001．3，Vol．22．No．2：55-59
[19] Sajal S. Pokharel.Gary A. Bishop, Donald H.Stedman, An on-road motor vehicle emissions inventory for Denver: an efficient alternative to modeling, Atmospheric Environment, 36 (2002): 5177-5184
[20] Hesham Rakha; Kyoungho Ahn; Antonio Trani Canadian Comparison of MOBILESa. MOBILE6.VT MICRO. and CMEM models for estimating hot-stabilized light-duty gasoline vehicle emission. Journal of Civil Engineering; Dec 2003; 30, 6; ProQuest Science Journals. 1010
[21] C David Cooper; Marten Arbrandt. Mobile Source Emission Inventories Monthly or Annual Average Inputs to MOBILE6, Journal of the Air&Waste Management Association; Aug 2004; 54, 8; ProQuest Science Journals, 1006
[22] Norman F.Robinson, William R.Pierson, et al.Comparision of MOBILE4.1 and MOBILES Predictions with Measurements of Vehicle Emission Factors in FORT McHENRY and TUSCARORA Mountain Tunnels
[23] 万涛，．于雷，裴文文等．捷达车实测排放因子和MOBILE6预测值的对比分析．交通环保．2005．4，Vol．26，No．2：11-14
[24] 王文，于雷，刘娟等．中巴车实测排放因子和MOBILE6预测值的对比分析．交通环保．2005．6．Vol．26．No．3：40-43
[25] 王文，于雷，杨方等．基于OEM技术的机动车行驶周期的研究．交通环保．2004．4，Vo．125．No．2．14-17
[26] 吴烨，郝吉明，傅立新等．澳门机动车排放清单．清华大学学报(自然科学版)．2002，Vol．42．No．12：1601-1604
[27] 傅立新，贺克斌，何东全等．MOBILE汽车源排放因子计算模式研究．环境科学学报．1997．10．Vol．17．No．4：474-479
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