中国农村剩余劳动力转移问题研究
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摘要
农村剩余劳动力转移是经济和社会发展的必然规律,是我国实现工业化和现代化的必然趋势,是根本解决“三农”问题,实现社会主义新农村建设目标的重要途径。
关于农村剩余劳动力转移问题的讨论国内外已经形成了一系列成熟的理论。在国外有著名的刘易斯模型(Lewis model),拉尼斯—费模型(Ranis—Feimodel),托达罗(M.P.Todaro)模型等,在国内也有许多关于城市化进程和劳动力迁移方面的研究。
本文运用理论与实证,定性分析和定量研究相结合的方法论述当前我国农村剩余劳动力转移问题。全文分为五个部分。第一章绪论,主要对农村剩余劳动力转移的目的和意义进行分析,并对国内外研究现状做了综述。第二章介绍了国外经典的农村劳动力转移理论及其模型,用于研究借鉴以建立人口流动模型。第三章介绍了国内劳动力转移研究的主要几个代表性观点。第四章是在国外模式和我国转移实践研究的基础上,结合我国具体国情对托达罗(M.P.Todaro)的经典人口流动理论加以修正并提出有序人口流动模式进而构建有序人口流动模型,借以描述人口流动数量的变化规模及劳动力迁移决策行为,讨论流入劳动力数量趋于稳定的条件。第五章是依据有关最新数据和事实,对我国农村剩余劳动力的数量进行分析,对我国的城市化水平进行预测,并对建立的人口流动模型做出相应的实证分析,给出适合我国国情的农村剩余劳动力转移的政策建议。
The rural surplus labor force transfer is an inevitable law of the development of economy and society, and an inevitable trend of industrialization and modenization in our country. It is the important approach problem to resolve "three agricultures" at all and attain new rural construction's objectives.
On cussion of surplus rural labor force transfer, there are series of mature theory created at home and abroad, such as the famous Lewis model, Ranis—Fei model, M.P.Todaro model and so on in overseas, and also many researches about urbanization and transfer of labor force in domestic.
This article utilizes the methord that is the combination of theory with practice, qualitative with quantitative study, elaborated the current countryside surplus force transfer question in our country. The full text is divided into five parts.
The first chapter is foreword, in this chapter, it analyses the goal and the significance of the transfer surplus labor, and makes summary of present research situation in our country and foreign countries.
In the second chapter, it introduces four kinds comparisons representative rural labor force transfer theory to instruct the transfer surplus labor force in our country and constructs orderly population flow model.
In the third chapter, it introduces three representative views on the domestic transfer surplus labor.
In the fourth chapter, it modifies the classical population flow theory with China's specific national conditions and brings forward orderly population flow pattern, then constructs orderly population flow model. Describing the movement of population flow amount and the decision—making action of work force with this model, we discuss the condition when the amount of the work force goes to stabilization.
In the last chapter, according the latest related data and the matter, it analysis the quantity of rural surplus labor and forecast China's urbanization rate. Then it constructs population flow model and gives corresponding demonstration analysis. At last, it brings out some policy recommendations for the transfer of rural surplus labor force suitable for China's national conditions.
关于农村剩余劳动力转移问题的讨论国内外已经形成了一系列成熟的理论。在国外有著名的刘易斯模型(Lewis model),拉尼斯—费模型(Ranis—Feimodel),托达罗(M.P.Todaro)模型等,在国内也有许多关于城市化进程和劳动力迁移方面的研究。
本文运用理论与实证,定性分析和定量研究相结合的方法论述当前我国农村剩余劳动力转移问题。全文分为五个部分。第一章绪论,主要对农村剩余劳动力转移的目的和意义进行分析,并对国内外研究现状做了综述。第二章介绍了国外经典的农村劳动力转移理论及其模型,用于研究借鉴以建立人口流动模型。第三章介绍了国内劳动力转移研究的主要几个代表性观点。第四章是在国外模式和我国转移实践研究的基础上,结合我国具体国情对托达罗(M.P.Todaro)的经典人口流动理论加以修正并提出有序人口流动模式进而构建有序人口流动模型,借以描述人口流动数量的变化规模及劳动力迁移决策行为,讨论流入劳动力数量趋于稳定的条件。第五章是依据有关最新数据和事实,对我国农村剩余劳动力的数量进行分析,对我国的城市化水平进行预测,并对建立的人口流动模型做出相应的实证分析,给出适合我国国情的农村剩余劳动力转移的政策建议。
The rural surplus labor force transfer is an inevitable law of the development of economy and society, and an inevitable trend of industrialization and modenization in our country. It is the important approach problem to resolve "three agricultures" at all and attain new rural construction's objectives.
On cussion of surplus rural labor force transfer, there are series of mature theory created at home and abroad, such as the famous Lewis model, Ranis—Fei model, M.P.Todaro model and so on in overseas, and also many researches about urbanization and transfer of labor force in domestic.
This article utilizes the methord that is the combination of theory with practice, qualitative with quantitative study, elaborated the current countryside surplus force transfer question in our country. The full text is divided into five parts.
The first chapter is foreword, in this chapter, it analyses the goal and the significance of the transfer surplus labor, and makes summary of present research situation in our country and foreign countries.
In the second chapter, it introduces four kinds comparisons representative rural labor force transfer theory to instruct the transfer surplus labor force in our country and constructs orderly population flow model.
In the third chapter, it introduces three representative views on the domestic transfer surplus labor.
In the fourth chapter, it modifies the classical population flow theory with China's specific national conditions and brings forward orderly population flow pattern, then constructs orderly population flow model. Describing the movement of population flow amount and the decision—making action of work force with this model, we discuss the condition when the amount of the work force goes to stabilization.
In the last chapter, according the latest related data and the matter, it analysis the quantity of rural surplus labor and forecast China's urbanization rate. Then it constructs population flow model and gives corresponding demonstration analysis. At last, it brings out some policy recommendations for the transfer of rural surplus labor force suitable for China's national conditions.
引文
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[2]Ranis Gustav.Fei John. A Theory of Economic Development. American Economic Review,51:533—565,1961.
[3]J.R.Harris,M.P.Todaro. Migration.Unemployment and Development: A Two—Sector Analysis[J]. American Economic Review, 1970(3).
[4]Cai Fang.Wang Dewen. Migration as Marketization:What Can We Learn from China's 2000 Census Data? [Z]. Working Paper Series No. 26,lnstitute of Population and Labor Economics.Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,2003.
[5]William L. Parish.Xiaoye Zhe.Fang Li. NonfarmWork and Marketization of the Chinese Countryside [J]. The China Quarterly, 1995,Sep tember: 697—730.
[6]M.P.Todaro. A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in L essDeveloped Countries[J ]. American Economic Review ,1969,(3).
[7]M.P.Todaro. Internal Migration in Developing Countries: Population and Economic Change in Develop ingCountries [M]. Chicago: The University of Ch icago,1980.
[8]Zhao Yaohui. Labor Migration and Earnings Differences:The Case of Rural China,Economics Development and Cultural Change,47(4):767—82,1999.
[9]Bai Nansheng and He Yupeng. Returning to the Countrysideversus Continuing toWork in the Cities: A Study on Rural Urban Migrants and Their Return to the Countryside of China [J]. Social Sciences In China,2003,winter: 149—159.
[10]Chan Kam Wing.Zhang Li. The Hukou System and Rural —Urban Migration in China: Processes and Changes [J]. The China Quarterly, 1999,(160): 818—855.
[11]David Roland—Hoist. LaborMarkets and Dynamic Comparative Advantage[Z]. Dynamic Issues in App lied Commercial Policy Analysis.CEPR November,2004.
[12]Denise Hare. "Push" versus "Pull" Factors in Migration Outflows and Returns: Determinants of Migration Status and Spell Duration among China's Rural Population [J]. Journal of Development Studies, 1999,(3).
[13]Du Yang,Alberk Park ,Wang Sangui. Is Migration Helping China's Poor? [ Z]. Paper p repared for the Conference on Poverty,lnequality,LabourMarket andWelfare Reform in China Australia National University.August 25—27,2004.
[14]James Kai.sing Kung. Off—Farm Labor Markets and the Emergence of Land Rental Markets in Rural China[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,(30): 395—414.
[15]Lin Justin,Gewei Wang,Yaohui Zhao.Regional Inequality and Labor Transfers in China[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2004,(3):587-603.
[16]Shi Xinzheng,Terry Sicular,Zhao Yaohui.Analyzing Urban-Rural Income Inequality in China[Z].Paperp resented at International Symposium on Equity and Social Justice in Transitional.China,Beijing,2002.
[17]Zhao Yaohui.Causes and Consequences of Return Migration:Recent Evidence from China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,(30):376-394.
[18]Zhu Nong.The Impacts of Income Gaps on Migration Decisions in China[J].China Economic Review,2002,(13):213-230.
[19]Zhongmin Wu,Shujie Yao.Intermigration and intramigration in China:A theoretical and empirical analysis[J].China Economy Review 14(2003):371-385.
[20]Brambor,Thomas.Understanding Interaction Models:Improving Empirical Analyses[M].Political Analysis,14:63-82,2006.
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[36]周天勇.托达罗模型的缺陷及其相反的政策含义-中国剩余劳动力转移和就业容量扩张的思路[J].经济研究,2001年第3期。
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