网络借贷（P2P）平台的成长模型研究
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摘要
随着国家金融管制逐步开放,在中国巨大的人口基数与日渐旺盛的融资需求下,基于互联网的新型借贷模式-个人对个人(Peer-to-Peer,简称P2P)网络借贷将在国内呈现膨胀式发展。然而,由于目前描述网络借贷(P2P)平台成长规律的成长机制模型没有更多更好的表现,且平台的成长要素也没有明确一致的认识。因此,伴随着逐渐激烈的行业竞争,平台的生存与发展将受到挑战。本研究分别从自我成长、竞争成长和生存与发展要素角度构建了平台自主学习价值的动力学模型、合作下的平台竞争模型和平台的综合评价模型。具体研究工作如下：
1.构建了含“富者愈富”特性和“自主学习价值”的网络借贷(P2P)平台成长动力学模型。从非线性动力学角度研究了学习反馈延迟对网络借贷(P2P)平台成长的影响,挖掘出学习反馈延迟与平台的“赢家通吃”、“共存”以及“周期波动”现象之间的关系,该延迟用来反映平台自主学习能力强弱,体现了平台自主学习价值。研究结论揭示了平台自主学习价值的重要性,加深了平台运营商对平台成长的认识。数值仿真实验验证了模型的有效性及可行性。
2.深入研究了网络借贷(P2P)平台在成长中可能出现的周期波动现象。基于中心流形定理和规范式方法得到了一系列决定平台发展稳定性和周期波动性的具体表达公式。研究揭示了平台在成长过程中表现的“你追我赶”、“此起彼伏”动态发展特征,对平台运营商深度认识平台成长规律和制定相关竞争策略具有一定的参考价值和指导意义。
3.建立了合作下的网络借贷(P2P)平台竞争模型。通过对模型均衡解的分析,从理论上验证了合作可以实现平台间的互惠共赢,找到了平台间合作程度与平台的“赢家通吃”和“共存”现象之间的关系。研究结论为实施合作竞争策略的平台运营商提供了参考依据。数值仿真实验验证了相关结论的有效性及可行性。
4.提出并构建了一种针对网络借贷(P2P)平台的综合评价方法模型,即基于层次分析法(AHP)和三参数区间模糊逼近理想点排序法(TOPSIS)的综合评价模型。其中层次分析法和三参数区间值模糊值分别用于获得平台指标权重和表达专家偏好,而逼近理想点法对平台进行排序。该模型不仅可为平台的生存与发展指明方向,而且也可为网贷客户的平台应用选择提供理论指导。算例分析表明,所构建的评价模型具有一定的适用性。
本研究提出的成长模型和综合评价方法在一定程度上丰富补充了电子商务和决策理论与方法,同时也为网络借贷(P2P)平台的健康发展提供了有效的指导建议。
With the financial liberalization, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) online lending, as a novel internet-based pattern of financial lending, will be in a high degree of expansion under the domestic huge population and increasingly financing needs in China. However, the growth mechanism models that describe the growth law of P2P online lending platforms (P2POLPs) don't work well. Moreover, the growth factors of P2POLPs are also not coherent.Therefore, with the severe competitive environment, the survival and development of platforms will confront with severe challenges. In this dissertation, three research models were proposed, including an autonomous learning value dynamics model of P2POLPs, a coopetition model and a comprehensive evaluation model which based on the perspective of self and competitive growth, survival and development factors, respectively. Our contributions are shown as follows:
Firstly, a dynamic growth model with the characteristic of "rich get richer" and "autonomous learning value" of P2POLPs was developed. The effect of learning feedback delay on the growth of P2POLPs was analyzed from nonlinear dynamics. The relationships between learning feedback delay and the phenomenon of winner-take-all, coexistence and periodic fluctuation were found. This delay was used to reflect the strength of autonomous learning ability and show the autonomous learning value of P2POLPs. The results indicate the importance of autonomous learning value on P2POLPs, and deepen the operators' understanding of the growth of P2POLPs. Finally, a numerical simulation was conducted to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of results.
Secondly, an exhaustive study for the periodic fluctuation of P2POLPs was conducted. The explicit formulas determining the stability and periodic fluctuation of P2POLPs were formulated by using the center manifold theory and normal form method. This research shows that the features of "trying to overtake each other" and "arising and subsiding" would emerge as the P2POLPs develop, which provide reference and guidance for P2P operators to further understand the growth law of P2POLPs and make the feasible strategies.
Furthermore, a coopetition model of P2POLPs was established. The mutual benefit and win-win would be confirmed with cooperation by analyzing the equilibrium solutions of model. The relationships between cooperation strength and the phenomenon of "winner-take-all" and "coexistence" were also found. And then, the numerical simulation was used to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of conclusions, which could provide the theoretical evidences for P2P operators to carry out the coopettion strategy.
Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method for P2POLPs which based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and three parameters interval fuzzy technique order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) was proposed. Meanwhile, AHP and three parameters interval fuzzy value were introduced to obtain the weight of criteria and represent the preference of experts, respectively, and TOPSIS was applied to order platforms. Not only was the direction that conduces to the existence and development of platforms achieved, but also it would be beneficial to help clients to select the P2POLPs.Finally, an example was employed to demonstrate the applicability of evaluation model.
The growth models and comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this dissertation will make some contributions to the theoretical and methodology development of e-commerce and decision-making. Meanwhile, it also furnishes the healthy development of P2POLPs with valuable instructions.
1.构建了含“富者愈富”特性和“自主学习价值”的网络借贷(P2P)平台成长动力学模型。从非线性动力学角度研究了学习反馈延迟对网络借贷(P2P)平台成长的影响,挖掘出学习反馈延迟与平台的“赢家通吃”、“共存”以及“周期波动”现象之间的关系,该延迟用来反映平台自主学习能力强弱,体现了平台自主学习价值。研究结论揭示了平台自主学习价值的重要性,加深了平台运营商对平台成长的认识。数值仿真实验验证了模型的有效性及可行性。
2.深入研究了网络借贷(P2P)平台在成长中可能出现的周期波动现象。基于中心流形定理和规范式方法得到了一系列决定平台发展稳定性和周期波动性的具体表达公式。研究揭示了平台在成长过程中表现的“你追我赶”、“此起彼伏”动态发展特征,对平台运营商深度认识平台成长规律和制定相关竞争策略具有一定的参考价值和指导意义。
3.建立了合作下的网络借贷(P2P)平台竞争模型。通过对模型均衡解的分析,从理论上验证了合作可以实现平台间的互惠共赢,找到了平台间合作程度与平台的“赢家通吃”和“共存”现象之间的关系。研究结论为实施合作竞争策略的平台运营商提供了参考依据。数值仿真实验验证了相关结论的有效性及可行性。
4.提出并构建了一种针对网络借贷(P2P)平台的综合评价方法模型,即基于层次分析法(AHP)和三参数区间模糊逼近理想点排序法(TOPSIS)的综合评价模型。其中层次分析法和三参数区间值模糊值分别用于获得平台指标权重和表达专家偏好,而逼近理想点法对平台进行排序。该模型不仅可为平台的生存与发展指明方向,而且也可为网贷客户的平台应用选择提供理论指导。算例分析表明,所构建的评价模型具有一定的适用性。
本研究提出的成长模型和综合评价方法在一定程度上丰富补充了电子商务和决策理论与方法,同时也为网络借贷(P2P)平台的健康发展提供了有效的指导建议。
With the financial liberalization, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) online lending, as a novel internet-based pattern of financial lending, will be in a high degree of expansion under the domestic huge population and increasingly financing needs in China. However, the growth mechanism models that describe the growth law of P2P online lending platforms (P2POLPs) don't work well. Moreover, the growth factors of P2POLPs are also not coherent.Therefore, with the severe competitive environment, the survival and development of platforms will confront with severe challenges. In this dissertation, three research models were proposed, including an autonomous learning value dynamics model of P2POLPs, a coopetition model and a comprehensive evaluation model which based on the perspective of self and competitive growth, survival and development factors, respectively. Our contributions are shown as follows:
Firstly, a dynamic growth model with the characteristic of "rich get richer" and "autonomous learning value" of P2POLPs was developed. The effect of learning feedback delay on the growth of P2POLPs was analyzed from nonlinear dynamics. The relationships between learning feedback delay and the phenomenon of winner-take-all, coexistence and periodic fluctuation were found. This delay was used to reflect the strength of autonomous learning ability and show the autonomous learning value of P2POLPs. The results indicate the importance of autonomous learning value on P2POLPs, and deepen the operators' understanding of the growth of P2POLPs. Finally, a numerical simulation was conducted to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of results.
Secondly, an exhaustive study for the periodic fluctuation of P2POLPs was conducted. The explicit formulas determining the stability and periodic fluctuation of P2POLPs were formulated by using the center manifold theory and normal form method. This research shows that the features of "trying to overtake each other" and "arising and subsiding" would emerge as the P2POLPs develop, which provide reference and guidance for P2P operators to further understand the growth law of P2POLPs and make the feasible strategies.
Furthermore, a coopetition model of P2POLPs was established. The mutual benefit and win-win would be confirmed with cooperation by analyzing the equilibrium solutions of model. The relationships between cooperation strength and the phenomenon of "winner-take-all" and "coexistence" were also found. And then, the numerical simulation was used to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of conclusions, which could provide the theoretical evidences for P2P operators to carry out the coopettion strategy.
Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method for P2POLPs which based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and three parameters interval fuzzy technique order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) was proposed. Meanwhile, AHP and three parameters interval fuzzy value were introduced to obtain the weight of criteria and represent the preference of experts, respectively, and TOPSIS was applied to order platforms. Not only was the direction that conduces to the existence and development of platforms achieved, but also it would be beneficial to help clients to select the P2POLPs.Finally, an example was employed to demonstrate the applicability of evaluation model.
The growth models and comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this dissertation will make some contributions to the theoretical and methodology development of e-commerce and decision-making. Meanwhile, it also furnishes the healthy development of P2POLPs with valuable instructions.
引文
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