地铁建设项目施工安全风险综合评价方法与案例研究
|
摘要
地铁建设工程在施工的过程中存在多种潜在的、不易识别的风险,而工程的安全风险管理是轨道交通建设所面临的核心技术难题,因此对地铁工程施工过程中的安全风险管理研究势在必行。本文在对风险管理理论与风险分析方法研究的基础上,以地铁建设项目施工过程中的安全风险为研究对象,通过分析施工现场安全风险发生的机理,对风险识别与风险评价的方法进行了研究,建立了施工现场安全风险管理与评价模型,以实现对地铁工程施工过程中的安全风险进行有效控制和管理。
本文针对已有的安全评价方法,在安全检查表的应用中引入层次分析法,对作业条件危险性评价法中的L项进行修正,使评价结果更加科学,提高了项目安全投入的经济性。从五个影响施工现场安全的因素构建了地铁施工安全综合评价指标体系,构建了基于BP神经网络的地铁施工安全综合评价模型,在指标权重的处理上采用了层次分析法,以减少对评价结果不利的主观因素的影响。最后以北京地铁15号线机电安装工程项目为案例,应用本文建立的安全风险管理模型,从安全风险的分析、识别、评价和控制等几个环节论述了该工程的安全风险管理,应用本文构建的安全综合评价指标体系和BP神经网络评价模型对该项目进行了实证研究,最后针对本工程实际风险特点提出了相应的应对策略和措施。
There are many risks which are potential and not easy to identify in Subway construction process, the safety risk management of the project is the core technical problems faced by rail traffic construction,therefore, it is very imperative to study safety risk management in the construction process of subway engineering.In this paper,based on the research of risk management theory and risk analysis method,we take the safety risk in the construction process of subway project as the research object,analyzing the on-site safety risk occurs, the mechanism of risk identification and risk assessment methods are studied, established the on-site safety risk management and evaluation model, in order to control and management the safety risk of the construction process of subway engineering effectively.
Based on the existing safety assessment methods, introducing analytic hierarchy process in safety inspection table and revised the L item in risk evaluation method of operation condition.It make the evaluation results more scientific and improve the efficiency of project safety input.Finally,comprehensive evaluation index system on-site safety factors constructs the subway construction safety from the five influence, building subway construction safety evaluation model based on the BP neural network and using analytic hierarchy process in the index weight in order to reduce adverse influence of subjective factors to the evaluation result. Finally take the subway line 15 m&e installation project in Beijing as a case, using the security risk management model established in this paper, discussed the project risk management from safety risk analysis, identification, assessment and control several links.Empirical research to this project using the safety evaluation index system and the BP neural network evaluation model constructed in this paper, finally, put forward the counter measures and measures according to the actual risk characteristics of this project.
本文针对已有的安全评价方法,在安全检查表的应用中引入层次分析法,对作业条件危险性评价法中的L项进行修正,使评价结果更加科学,提高了项目安全投入的经济性。从五个影响施工现场安全的因素构建了地铁施工安全综合评价指标体系,构建了基于BP神经网络的地铁施工安全综合评价模型,在指标权重的处理上采用了层次分析法,以减少对评价结果不利的主观因素的影响。最后以北京地铁15号线机电安装工程项目为案例,应用本文建立的安全风险管理模型,从安全风险的分析、识别、评价和控制等几个环节论述了该工程的安全风险管理,应用本文构建的安全综合评价指标体系和BP神经网络评价模型对该项目进行了实证研究,最后针对本工程实际风险特点提出了相应的应对策略和措施。
There are many risks which are potential and not easy to identify in Subway construction process, the safety risk management of the project is the core technical problems faced by rail traffic construction,therefore, it is very imperative to study safety risk management in the construction process of subway engineering.In this paper,based on the research of risk management theory and risk analysis method,we take the safety risk in the construction process of subway project as the research object,analyzing the on-site safety risk occurs, the mechanism of risk identification and risk assessment methods are studied, established the on-site safety risk management and evaluation model, in order to control and management the safety risk of the construction process of subway engineering effectively.
Based on the existing safety assessment methods, introducing analytic hierarchy process in safety inspection table and revised the L item in risk evaluation method of operation condition.It make the evaluation results more scientific and improve the efficiency of project safety input.Finally,comprehensive evaluation index system on-site safety factors constructs the subway construction safety from the five influence, building subway construction safety evaluation model based on the BP neural network and using analytic hierarchy process in the index weight in order to reduce adverse influence of subjective factors to the evaluation result. Finally take the subway line 15 m&e installation project in Beijing as a case, using the security risk management model established in this paper, discussed the project risk management from safety risk analysis, identification, assessment and control several links.Empirical research to this project using the safety evaluation index system and the BP neural network evaluation model constructed in this paper, finally, put forward the counter measures and measures according to the actual risk characteristics of this project.
引文
[1]杜哲.城市发展模式转变条件下轨道交通建设必要性研究[J].都市快轨交通,2009(2)
[2]梁宁慧,刘新荣,曹学山,钟正君,廖靖.中国城市地铁建设的现状和发展战略[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2008,30(6):81-85
[3]朱胜利,王文斌,刘维宁等.地铁工程的施工风险管理[J].都市轨道交通,2008,21(1)
[4]何玲玲,段菁菁,方列.地铁施工事故频频发生背后带血的反思[EB].http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter,2008
[5]于九如.投资项目风险分析.机械工业出版社,1999
[6]卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998
[7]李存斌.建设项目经济效果风险分析的函数偏导法[J].技术经济,1983,3(4)
[8]李正.投资的经济效果及其风险分析[J].北京水利电力经济学学报,1987
[9]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1986
[10]姜青舫,陈方正.风险度量原理[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2000
[11]邱苑华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002
[12] H.H.Einstein&G.S.Vick,Geological model for tunnel cost model[J].Procapsid Excavation and Tunnelling Conf,2nd,1974:170-172
[13] H.H.Einstein,Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering[J].Tunnelling&Underground Space Technology,1996:141-155
[14] H.H.Einstein,Mahtab MA,Decision Aids in Tunnelling[J].World Tunnelling April,1998:157-159
[15] B.Nilsen,A.palmstrom,H.Stille.Quality control of a subsea tunnel project in complex ground conditions[J],Challenges for the 21st century,1992,137-145
[16] Heina Duddeck.Challenges to Tunnelling Engineers[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(1):510
[17] R.Sturk,L.Olsson,and J.Johansson.Risk and decision analysis for large underground projects,as applied to the Stockholm ring road tunneling[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):157-164
[18] G.T.Clark,A.Borst.Addressing risk in Seattle’s underground[J].PB Network,2002,(1):34-37
[19] J.Kampmann,S,D,Eskesen,J.W.Summers.Risk assessment helps select the contractor for the Copenhagen Metro System[A].Proceeding of the world tunnel congress 98 on tunnels and metropolises[C],1998,(1):123-128
[20]佐藤久,田中胜雄.日本隧道工程的发展和灾害情况的统计[J].隧道与地下工程1998(4):1-9
[21] J.B.Burland,J.R.Standing,F.M.Jarding.Building response to tunneling:case studies from construction of the jubilee line extension,London.Thomas Telford Publishing,2001
[22] A.J.M.Snel,D.R.S.Van Hasselt.Risk management in the Amsterdam North/South Metro ling:A matter of process communication instead of calculation[A].Proceeding of the word tunnel congress99[C],1999,179-186
[23] S.D.Eskesen,P.R.Tengborg,J.Kampmann,T.H.Veicherts.Guidelines for tunneling risk management:International Tunneling Association,Working Group NO.2[J].Tunneling and Underground Space Technology,2004,(19):217-237
[24]毛儒.隧道工程风险评估[J].隧遂建设,2003,23(2):1-3
[25]毛儒.论工程项目的风险管理[J].都市快轨交通,2004,17(2):3-6
[26]毛儒.轨道交通安全风险管理[J].都市快轨交通,2007,20(4):7-9
[27]盛继亮.建筑工程项目风险和保险研究[D].湖北:武汉大学.2003
[28]边亦海,黄宏伟,高军.可靠度理论在确定隧道衬砌参数的应用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(1):129-132
[29]王梦恕.厦门海底隧道设计施工运营安全风险分析[J].施工技术,2005,增刊:1-5
[30]吴贤国,吴刚,骆汉宾.武汉长江隧道工程盾构施工风险研究[J].中国市政工程,2007(1):51-53
[31]黄宏伟,曾明,陈亮等.基于风险数据库的盾构隧道施工风险管理软件TRM1.0开发[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):36-41
[32]胡群芳,黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程风险接受准则计算模型研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):60-64
[33]同济大学,奥雅纳工程顾问,中交第四航务工程勘察设计院.崇明越江通道工程风险分析研究报告[R].上海:同济大学,2003
[34]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002
[35]麻荣永.土石坝风险分析方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[36]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2):21-30
[37]阮欣.桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[38]宋明哲.风险管理[M].台北:中华企业管理发展中心,1984
[39]李存斌.建设项目经济效果风险分析的函数偏导法[J].技术经济,1983,3(4):69-74
[40]李中斌.风险管理解读[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2000
[41]张伟.国际工程项目的风险管理研究[D].天津:天津大学,2004
[42]孙星.风险管理[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2007
[43]卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998
[44] Mark.R.G,Oscar.N.S,Risk Management:Text and Case,Reston Publishing Company,Inc.,1978
[45] Al-Bahar J.F..Systematio risk management approach for consruction projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):533-546
[46]罗云,樊运晓,马晓春等.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004
[47] RazT.,MiehaelE.Use and benefits of tools for project risk management[J].Project Management,2001(19):9-17
[48]巩春领.大跨度斜拉桥施工风险分析与对策研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[49]陈龙.城市盾构隧道施工风险分析与评估研究[D].上海:同济大学,2004
[50]吴宗之,高进东等.重大危险源辨识[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2001
[51]燕燕.谈建筑企业重大危险源辨识及风险评价与控制的改进方法[J].建筑安全,2006(8)31-33
[52] Hideo Tanaka et al.Fuzzy-Tree Analysis by Fuzzy Probability[J].IEEE Transaction on Reliability,1983,32(5)
[53] D.Singer.A fuzzy Set Approach to Fault Treeing Reliability Analysis[J].Fuzzy Sets and System,1990,34:145-155
[54] J.P.Sawyer.Fault Tree Analysis of Mechanical Systems[J].Microelectron and Reliability,1994,54(4):653-667
[55] K.B.Misra and G.G.Weber.Use of Fuzzy Set Theory for Level-I Studies in Probabilistic Risk Assessment[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1990,37:139-160
[56] Eskesen S.D.,Tengborg P.,Kampmann J.et al.Guidelines for Tunneling Risk Management;International Tunneling Association,Working Group No.2[J].Tunneling and Underground Space Technology,2004,19:217-237
[57]张军.建筑施工危险源安全评价及管理的方法研究[D].大连:理工大学,2007
[58]陈国华.风险工程学[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007
[59]王有志.现代工程项目风险管理理论与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009
[60]施红健.建筑施工重大危险源的辨识及控制[J].建筑安全,2006(2):15-17
[61]白峰青等.地下工程的可靠性与风险决策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2000,19(3):237-239
[62]韩其俊.安全检查表法在安全评价中的应用及改进[J].石油化工安全技术,2003,4:13-16
[63]张嘉勇,郭立稳.煤矿安全评价中安全检查表的数据处理[J].河北理工学院学报,2005,01
[64]傅家骥.工业技术经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1985
[65]于冬.基于BP神经网络的风险投资评估模型[J].科技管理研究,2005(9)
[66]汪应洛,杨耀红.工程项目管理中的人工神经网络方法及其应用[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(7)
[67]闰文周,徐静,吁元铭.神经网络在工程项目管理绩效评价中的应用研究[J].西安建设科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,37(4)
[2]梁宁慧,刘新荣,曹学山,钟正君,廖靖.中国城市地铁建设的现状和发展战略[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2008,30(6):81-85
[3]朱胜利,王文斌,刘维宁等.地铁工程的施工风险管理[J].都市轨道交通,2008,21(1)
[4]何玲玲,段菁菁,方列.地铁施工事故频频发生背后带血的反思[EB].http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter,2008
[5]于九如.投资项目风险分析.机械工业出版社,1999
[6]卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998
[7]李存斌.建设项目经济效果风险分析的函数偏导法[J].技术经济,1983,3(4)
[8]李正.投资的经济效果及其风险分析[J].北京水利电力经济学学报,1987
[9]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1986
[10]姜青舫,陈方正.风险度量原理[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2000
[11]邱苑华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002
[12] H.H.Einstein&G.S.Vick,Geological model for tunnel cost model[J].Procapsid Excavation and Tunnelling Conf,2nd,1974:170-172
[13] H.H.Einstein,Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering[J].Tunnelling&Underground Space Technology,1996:141-155
[14] H.H.Einstein,Mahtab MA,Decision Aids in Tunnelling[J].World Tunnelling April,1998:157-159
[15] B.Nilsen,A.palmstrom,H.Stille.Quality control of a subsea tunnel project in complex ground conditions[J],Challenges for the 21st century,1992,137-145
[16] Heina Duddeck.Challenges to Tunnelling Engineers[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(1):510
[17] R.Sturk,L.Olsson,and J.Johansson.Risk and decision analysis for large underground projects,as applied to the Stockholm ring road tunneling[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):157-164
[18] G.T.Clark,A.Borst.Addressing risk in Seattle’s underground[J].PB Network,2002,(1):34-37
[19] J.Kampmann,S,D,Eskesen,J.W.Summers.Risk assessment helps select the contractor for the Copenhagen Metro System[A].Proceeding of the world tunnel congress 98 on tunnels and metropolises[C],1998,(1):123-128
[20]佐藤久,田中胜雄.日本隧道工程的发展和灾害情况的统计[J].隧道与地下工程1998(4):1-9
[21] J.B.Burland,J.R.Standing,F.M.Jarding.Building response to tunneling:case studies from construction of the jubilee line extension,London.Thomas Telford Publishing,2001
[22] A.J.M.Snel,D.R.S.Van Hasselt.Risk management in the Amsterdam North/South Metro ling:A matter of process communication instead of calculation[A].Proceeding of the word tunnel congress99[C],1999,179-186
[23] S.D.Eskesen,P.R.Tengborg,J.Kampmann,T.H.Veicherts.Guidelines for tunneling risk management:International Tunneling Association,Working Group NO.2[J].Tunneling and Underground Space Technology,2004,(19):217-237
[24]毛儒.隧道工程风险评估[J].隧遂建设,2003,23(2):1-3
[25]毛儒.论工程项目的风险管理[J].都市快轨交通,2004,17(2):3-6
[26]毛儒.轨道交通安全风险管理[J].都市快轨交通,2007,20(4):7-9
[27]盛继亮.建筑工程项目风险和保险研究[D].湖北:武汉大学.2003
[28]边亦海,黄宏伟,高军.可靠度理论在确定隧道衬砌参数的应用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(1):129-132
[29]王梦恕.厦门海底隧道设计施工运营安全风险分析[J].施工技术,2005,增刊:1-5
[30]吴贤国,吴刚,骆汉宾.武汉长江隧道工程盾构施工风险研究[J].中国市政工程,2007(1):51-53
[31]黄宏伟,曾明,陈亮等.基于风险数据库的盾构隧道施工风险管理软件TRM1.0开发[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):36-41
[32]胡群芳,黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程风险接受准则计算模型研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):60-64
[33]同济大学,奥雅纳工程顾问,中交第四航务工程勘察设计院.崇明越江通道工程风险分析研究报告[R].上海:同济大学,2003
[34]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002
[35]麻荣永.土石坝风险分析方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[36]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2):21-30
[37]阮欣.桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[38]宋明哲.风险管理[M].台北:中华企业管理发展中心,1984
[39]李存斌.建设项目经济效果风险分析的函数偏导法[J].技术经济,1983,3(4):69-74
[40]李中斌.风险管理解读[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2000
[41]张伟.国际工程项目的风险管理研究[D].天津:天津大学,2004
[42]孙星.风险管理[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2007
[43]卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998
[44] Mark.R.G,Oscar.N.S,Risk Management:Text and Case,Reston Publishing Company,Inc.,1978
[45] Al-Bahar J.F..Systematio risk management approach for consruction projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):533-546
[46]罗云,樊运晓,马晓春等.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004
[47] RazT.,MiehaelE.Use and benefits of tools for project risk management[J].Project Management,2001(19):9-17
[48]巩春领.大跨度斜拉桥施工风险分析与对策研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[49]陈龙.城市盾构隧道施工风险分析与评估研究[D].上海:同济大学,2004
[50]吴宗之,高进东等.重大危险源辨识[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2001
[51]燕燕.谈建筑企业重大危险源辨识及风险评价与控制的改进方法[J].建筑安全,2006(8)31-33
[52] Hideo Tanaka et al.Fuzzy-Tree Analysis by Fuzzy Probability[J].IEEE Transaction on Reliability,1983,32(5)
[53] D.Singer.A fuzzy Set Approach to Fault Treeing Reliability Analysis[J].Fuzzy Sets and System,1990,34:145-155
[54] J.P.Sawyer.Fault Tree Analysis of Mechanical Systems[J].Microelectron and Reliability,1994,54(4):653-667
[55] K.B.Misra and G.G.Weber.Use of Fuzzy Set Theory for Level-I Studies in Probabilistic Risk Assessment[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1990,37:139-160
[56] Eskesen S.D.,Tengborg P.,Kampmann J.et al.Guidelines for Tunneling Risk Management;International Tunneling Association,Working Group No.2[J].Tunneling and Underground Space Technology,2004,19:217-237
[57]张军.建筑施工危险源安全评价及管理的方法研究[D].大连:理工大学,2007
[58]陈国华.风险工程学[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007
[59]王有志.现代工程项目风险管理理论与实践[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009
[60]施红健.建筑施工重大危险源的辨识及控制[J].建筑安全,2006(2):15-17
[61]白峰青等.地下工程的可靠性与风险决策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2000,19(3):237-239
[62]韩其俊.安全检查表法在安全评价中的应用及改进[J].石油化工安全技术,2003,4:13-16
[63]张嘉勇,郭立稳.煤矿安全评价中安全检查表的数据处理[J].河北理工学院学报,2005,01
[64]傅家骥.工业技术经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1985
[65]于冬.基于BP神经网络的风险投资评估模型[J].科技管理研究,2005(9)
[66]汪应洛,杨耀红.工程项目管理中的人工神经网络方法及其应用[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(7)
[67]闰文周,徐静,吁元铭.神经网络在工程项目管理绩效评价中的应用研究[J].西安建设科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,37(4)