中国主要不稳定积雪区积雪变化规律及成因研究
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摘要
依据现有的研究,中国不稳定积雪区主要分布在102°E—120°E,30°N—43°N,其中包括一小部分稳定积雪区(青藏高原东边破和内蒙古东部地区)。本文利用全国700多站中属于研究区域的气象站从1951—2006年的逐日积雪日数、积雪深度、温度、降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料,采用相关分析、EOF、小波分析、线性趋势分析、合成分析等统计分析方法,研究了在全球变暖的大背景下,中国主要不稳定积雪区积雪的时空变化规律以及影响其变化的原因。取得的主要成果有:
(1)研究区域积雪日数和积雪深度在主要不稳定积雪区为大范围的减少趋势,有少数台站的减少趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验,而在稳定积雪区为平缓的增加趋势。
(2)EOF研究结果表明研究区域积雪日数的异常可以分为三个主要的空间模态和6个气候区。第一模态为全区一致的偏多(少)型,近40a中大约有13a的积雪日数距平相似于这一模态;第二种类型为南多(少)北少(多)的相反分布型,相似年有7a;第三种类型为东多(少)西少(多)的东西相反分布型,相似年有2a。
(3)小波分析发现研究区域积雪变化存在显著的准18a周期。积雪的出现是不连续的,并且时间跨度很长,对积雪的季节变化研究发现积雪主要集中在11、12、1、2、3月,占到全年积雪日数的93%,我们以此时段作为积雪深度研究的主要时段——冬半年。
(4)冬半年温度和降水的变化直接影响积雪的变化,研究区域除个别台站外冬半年平均温度都呈显著的增加趋势,这与全球变暖的趋势基本一致,全区冬半年平均温度在1989年发生了突变。冬半年总降水量对整个研究区域来说呈平缓的增加趋势,并且主要反映了南部区降水量的变化,因为增加显著的地区主要在南部区,而河套和华北地区冬半年总降水量为减少的趋势,个别台站减少显著,呈现“南涝北旱”的格局。本文定义了冬半年总有效降雪量的概念,主要揭示降水量中固体降水的变化对积雪变化的影响,同时也反映了温度在积雪形成的初期对积雪的影响。研究区域冬半年总有效降雪量总的来说呈平缓的减少趋势,减少的趋势不显著。除青藏高原东边坡和太行山东侧地区外,其它地区大都呈减少的趋势。
(5)研究区域各气候分区的积雪变化原因不尽相同,1区(中部区)和3区(东部区)冬半年累积积雪深度的减少主要是由于该地区冬半年总降水量的减少和总有效降雪量的减少,其次为冬半年平均温度的升高而引起。2区(南部区)冬半年累积积雪深度的减少主要是由于冬半年平均温度的升高引起冬半年总有效降雪量的减少。该区域虽然总降水量是显著增加的,但由于气候变暖本来为降雪的量以降雨的形式发生,为积雪对气候变暖响应最敏感的区域。4区(北部区)和5区(东北部区)冬半年平均温度和冬半年总降水量的变化对冬半年累积积雪深度的变化都有影响。6区(西部区)冬半年累积积雪深度的增加主要是由于冬半年总降水量的增加,总有效降雪量也增加的缘故。
(6)冬季的大气环流形势决定了该年积雪的多寡,在正异常积雪年,500hPa高度场上表现为欧洲浅槽加深,乌拉尔山高压脊接近正常年份或偏弱,东亚大槽槽线比较竖直,海洋上西太平洋副高异常偏强;850hPa风场上表现为冷空气路径偏西,从青藏高原南侧绕流,亚洲东部地区盛行偏南风距平,冬季风减弱,西太平洋副高增强,偏西偏北,从而有利于降雪的产生;850hPa温度场在大陆上为温度负异常中心,西太平洋上为温度正异常中心,冷暖空气活动频繁,且交汇于河套及其邻近地区上空;200hPa上东亚西风急流偏弱,中心风速偏小,且急流出口区偏西;西南和东南方向的整层水汽输送增强,负异常积雪年反之。多雪年的异常程度明显要强于少雪年的异常程度。
Based on the existing result, instable snow cover mainly exists over the 102°E-120°E, 30°N-43°N, while a small portion stable snow cover is included in it. Use is made of daily snow depth, number of snow cover days, daily temperature and daily precipitation, from the selected meteorological stations across the study region as well as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis general circulation data, from 1951 through 2006. Correlation analysis, EOF, wavelet analysis, linear tread analysis and composite analysis are employed to study the spatial and temporal variation of the main instable snow cover region of China, under the background of global warming, in addition to all of the above, we analyze the cause which evoke the change in snow cover. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) An observed decreasing trend in annually number of snow cover days and snow depth over the main instable snow cover region in the study area is founded, and several stations' linear decreasing trend pass the significant (0.05 level) test. In addition, slight increasing trends in annually number of snow cover days and snow depth exhibit over the stable snow cover region.
(2) there are three main spatial patterns of the number of snow cover days on the study area by employing the EOF method, the first pattern is consistently more (less) than normal, the similarity years are 13a; the second pattern is a seesaw between southern (northern) region and northern (southern) region, the similarity years are 7a; the third patter is a seesaw between eastern (western) region and western (eastern) region, the similarity years are 2a. Furthermore, based on the data of annual number of snow cover days from 1961 through 2000, the studied region is partitioned to 6 sub-regions by Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions (REOF).
(3) There is quasi-period of 18-years on study region by Morlet wavelet analysis method. Snow cover appears incontinuous and it covers a long period. By examining the seasonal variation of snow cover we find that it mainly concentrates in November, December, January, February and March (November-March) account for 93% number of snow cover days of whole year, thus we take November-March as the winter half year to study the snow depth data.
(4) Temperature and precipitation of winter half year can directly influence the existence of the snow cover, a significant increasing linear trend is observed in winter half year mean temperature over the study area which coincide with the global warming, except for several stations. And the change abrupt in winter half year mean temperature occurred in 1989. As for as the whole study area is concerned, winter half year total precipitation presents slightly increasing trend, and mainly characterize the variation of the southern of the study region where the trends mostly are positive, while the trends are negative on Hetao and North China region. This mirrors the pattern of drought in north and flood in south. This paper defines a variable of winter half year valid snowfall to reveal the effect of temperature on snow cover at the beginning period of snow forming. As for as the whole study area is concerned, the winter half year total valid snowfall shows a slightly decreasing trend. The long-term trends over study area show negative, except for increasing trends at east side-slope of Tibetan Plateau and east of Taihang Mountain.
(5) The cause of snow cover changing varies from a sub-region to another, as for sub-region 1-central region and sub-region 3-eastern region, the decreasing of winter half year cumulative snow depth mainly because the decreasing of the total rainfall and total valid snowfall, and the rising of the temperature is in the next place. As for sub-region 2-southern region which sensitive to climate warming, because of the increasing of the winter half year mean temperature then winter half year cumulative snow depth decrease, with the winter half year total rainfall increasing and winter half year total valid snowfall decreasing. With respect to sub-region 4-northern region and sub-region 5-northeastern region, both winter half year total precipitation and winter half year mean temperature influence the snow cover changing. With regard to sub-region 6-western region, the increasing of winter half year cumulative snow depth mainly attribute to the winter half year total precipitation's increasing, as well as the increasing of winter half year total valid snowfall.
(6) The amount of the snow cover in a year is decided by the atmospheric circulation situation in winter of this year. In the positive anomaly snow cover years, firstly, on the 500hPa height fields, the European shallow trough will deepen evidently, Ural high ridge is close to normal year's or weaker, and the East Asia trough is quite vertical, and the West Pacific subtropical high can be exceptionally strong on the sea. Secondly, on the 850hPa zonal wind fields, the track of cold air move westward, and flow around the south side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, on the eastern part of Asia, the southerly wind is very prevailing, and the winter wind will weaken, West Pacific subtropical high will strengthen westward and northward, these are advantageous in producing snow. Thirdly, on the 850hPa temperature fields, there is a temperature negative anomaly center on land, on the West Pacific is opposite with it, the warm and cold air is highly active and meet over the He-Tao and near regions. Fourth, on the 200hPa wind fields, westerly jet of East Asia is weaker, and the wind speed in the centre is smaller, and the jet stream exit moves westward. Finally the vertically integrated water vapor transport in the direction of southwest and southeast strengthen obviously. But, in negative anomaly snow cover years are actually opposite with them, and the anomaly extent of nival years are obvious stronger than the years have less snow cover.
(1)研究区域积雪日数和积雪深度在主要不稳定积雪区为大范围的减少趋势,有少数台站的减少趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验,而在稳定积雪区为平缓的增加趋势。
(2)EOF研究结果表明研究区域积雪日数的异常可以分为三个主要的空间模态和6个气候区。第一模态为全区一致的偏多(少)型,近40a中大约有13a的积雪日数距平相似于这一模态;第二种类型为南多(少)北少(多)的相反分布型,相似年有7a;第三种类型为东多(少)西少(多)的东西相反分布型,相似年有2a。
(3)小波分析发现研究区域积雪变化存在显著的准18a周期。积雪的出现是不连续的,并且时间跨度很长,对积雪的季节变化研究发现积雪主要集中在11、12、1、2、3月,占到全年积雪日数的93%,我们以此时段作为积雪深度研究的主要时段——冬半年。
(4)冬半年温度和降水的变化直接影响积雪的变化,研究区域除个别台站外冬半年平均温度都呈显著的增加趋势,这与全球变暖的趋势基本一致,全区冬半年平均温度在1989年发生了突变。冬半年总降水量对整个研究区域来说呈平缓的增加趋势,并且主要反映了南部区降水量的变化,因为增加显著的地区主要在南部区,而河套和华北地区冬半年总降水量为减少的趋势,个别台站减少显著,呈现“南涝北旱”的格局。本文定义了冬半年总有效降雪量的概念,主要揭示降水量中固体降水的变化对积雪变化的影响,同时也反映了温度在积雪形成的初期对积雪的影响。研究区域冬半年总有效降雪量总的来说呈平缓的减少趋势,减少的趋势不显著。除青藏高原东边坡和太行山东侧地区外,其它地区大都呈减少的趋势。
(5)研究区域各气候分区的积雪变化原因不尽相同,1区(中部区)和3区(东部区)冬半年累积积雪深度的减少主要是由于该地区冬半年总降水量的减少和总有效降雪量的减少,其次为冬半年平均温度的升高而引起。2区(南部区)冬半年累积积雪深度的减少主要是由于冬半年平均温度的升高引起冬半年总有效降雪量的减少。该区域虽然总降水量是显著增加的,但由于气候变暖本来为降雪的量以降雨的形式发生,为积雪对气候变暖响应最敏感的区域。4区(北部区)和5区(东北部区)冬半年平均温度和冬半年总降水量的变化对冬半年累积积雪深度的变化都有影响。6区(西部区)冬半年累积积雪深度的增加主要是由于冬半年总降水量的增加,总有效降雪量也增加的缘故。
(6)冬季的大气环流形势决定了该年积雪的多寡,在正异常积雪年,500hPa高度场上表现为欧洲浅槽加深,乌拉尔山高压脊接近正常年份或偏弱,东亚大槽槽线比较竖直,海洋上西太平洋副高异常偏强;850hPa风场上表现为冷空气路径偏西,从青藏高原南侧绕流,亚洲东部地区盛行偏南风距平,冬季风减弱,西太平洋副高增强,偏西偏北,从而有利于降雪的产生;850hPa温度场在大陆上为温度负异常中心,西太平洋上为温度正异常中心,冷暖空气活动频繁,且交汇于河套及其邻近地区上空;200hPa上东亚西风急流偏弱,中心风速偏小,且急流出口区偏西;西南和东南方向的整层水汽输送增强,负异常积雪年反之。多雪年的异常程度明显要强于少雪年的异常程度。
Based on the existing result, instable snow cover mainly exists over the 102°E-120°E, 30°N-43°N, while a small portion stable snow cover is included in it. Use is made of daily snow depth, number of snow cover days, daily temperature and daily precipitation, from the selected meteorological stations across the study region as well as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis general circulation data, from 1951 through 2006. Correlation analysis, EOF, wavelet analysis, linear tread analysis and composite analysis are employed to study the spatial and temporal variation of the main instable snow cover region of China, under the background of global warming, in addition to all of the above, we analyze the cause which evoke the change in snow cover. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) An observed decreasing trend in annually number of snow cover days and snow depth over the main instable snow cover region in the study area is founded, and several stations' linear decreasing trend pass the significant (0.05 level) test. In addition, slight increasing trends in annually number of snow cover days and snow depth exhibit over the stable snow cover region.
(2) there are three main spatial patterns of the number of snow cover days on the study area by employing the EOF method, the first pattern is consistently more (less) than normal, the similarity years are 13a; the second pattern is a seesaw between southern (northern) region and northern (southern) region, the similarity years are 7a; the third patter is a seesaw between eastern (western) region and western (eastern) region, the similarity years are 2a. Furthermore, based on the data of annual number of snow cover days from 1961 through 2000, the studied region is partitioned to 6 sub-regions by Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions (REOF).
(3) There is quasi-period of 18-years on study region by Morlet wavelet analysis method. Snow cover appears incontinuous and it covers a long period. By examining the seasonal variation of snow cover we find that it mainly concentrates in November, December, January, February and March (November-March) account for 93% number of snow cover days of whole year, thus we take November-March as the winter half year to study the snow depth data.
(4) Temperature and precipitation of winter half year can directly influence the existence of the snow cover, a significant increasing linear trend is observed in winter half year mean temperature over the study area which coincide with the global warming, except for several stations. And the change abrupt in winter half year mean temperature occurred in 1989. As for as the whole study area is concerned, winter half year total precipitation presents slightly increasing trend, and mainly characterize the variation of the southern of the study region where the trends mostly are positive, while the trends are negative on Hetao and North China region. This mirrors the pattern of drought in north and flood in south. This paper defines a variable of winter half year valid snowfall to reveal the effect of temperature on snow cover at the beginning period of snow forming. As for as the whole study area is concerned, the winter half year total valid snowfall shows a slightly decreasing trend. The long-term trends over study area show negative, except for increasing trends at east side-slope of Tibetan Plateau and east of Taihang Mountain.
(5) The cause of snow cover changing varies from a sub-region to another, as for sub-region 1-central region and sub-region 3-eastern region, the decreasing of winter half year cumulative snow depth mainly because the decreasing of the total rainfall and total valid snowfall, and the rising of the temperature is in the next place. As for sub-region 2-southern region which sensitive to climate warming, because of the increasing of the winter half year mean temperature then winter half year cumulative snow depth decrease, with the winter half year total rainfall increasing and winter half year total valid snowfall decreasing. With respect to sub-region 4-northern region and sub-region 5-northeastern region, both winter half year total precipitation and winter half year mean temperature influence the snow cover changing. With regard to sub-region 6-western region, the increasing of winter half year cumulative snow depth mainly attribute to the winter half year total precipitation's increasing, as well as the increasing of winter half year total valid snowfall.
(6) The amount of the snow cover in a year is decided by the atmospheric circulation situation in winter of this year. In the positive anomaly snow cover years, firstly, on the 500hPa height fields, the European shallow trough will deepen evidently, Ural high ridge is close to normal year's or weaker, and the East Asia trough is quite vertical, and the West Pacific subtropical high can be exceptionally strong on the sea. Secondly, on the 850hPa zonal wind fields, the track of cold air move westward, and flow around the south side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, on the eastern part of Asia, the southerly wind is very prevailing, and the winter wind will weaken, West Pacific subtropical high will strengthen westward and northward, these are advantageous in producing snow. Thirdly, on the 850hPa temperature fields, there is a temperature negative anomaly center on land, on the West Pacific is opposite with it, the warm and cold air is highly active and meet over the He-Tao and near regions. Fourth, on the 200hPa wind fields, westerly jet of East Asia is weaker, and the wind speed in the centre is smaller, and the jet stream exit moves westward. Finally the vertically integrated water vapor transport in the direction of southwest and southeast strengthen obviously. But, in negative anomaly snow cover years are actually opposite with them, and the anomaly extent of nival years are obvious stronger than the years have less snow cover.
引文
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