空管人因不安全事件发生机理与控制方法研究
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摘要
随着我国民航事业的快速发展,空中交通流量的不断增加,作为航空安全保障主体之一的民航空管系统面临着新的挑战,由于空管原因所造成的不安全事件的绝对数在逐年上升。由于空管系统涉及的范围广阔、部门众多。因此必须从源头上对空管不安全事件进行控制,才能从根本上减少空管不安全事件的发生,提高空管系统整体的安全性。
本文首先对中国民航近十年来所发生的空管不安全事件进行了统计分析,分析得出了目前我国航空运行中与空管相关的不安全事件的分布特征。结合中国民航的实际情况,构建了比较完整的空管系统,分别论述系统中人、机、环境等要素对空管系统安全性的影响。分析得出了空管三大组成环节:人,机和环境(空域环境和管制室微环境)对空管系统安全性的影响;以事故致因理论为依据,分析了空管不安全事件的发生机理。然后对影响空中交通管制员工作质量的最主要因素之一一工作负荷进行了定性分析,利用国际上比较成熟的MMBB方法对管制员的工作负荷进行了定量分析,并利用对成都进近管制室的实际工作统计数据,对研究结果进行了验证,分析得出了成都进近管制室的管制员最大工作负荷;通过对空管人因不安全事件管理与控制方法的认真分析和深入研究,本文提出了对管制员操作可靠性进行评价的方法,包括生活事件分析和操作可靠性评价,并针对不同评价等级,提出了提高安全性的建议;最后提出了空管人因不安全事件的控制对策与方法,针对空管系统组成的各个环节,提出了具体的整改措施。
As the development of civil aviation and the increase of air traffic flow, air traffic control system the main protector of air traffic's safety is facing a new challenge. Due to the number of unsafe events that cased by air traffic control are increasing year by year and the wild connection between ATC and other fields of study, how to curb the 'headstream' of unsafe events is the key to gain unsafe prevention and enhancement of wholly ATC system's security.
The whole article which shows us the distribution of insecurity incidents during the operation of air traffic is based on the analysis of statistic of unsafe events happened this decade. Also the article which associated with current situation of Chinese civil aviation has established an integrated ATC system, and has studied how the three main factors (human, machine, environment) influence the safety operation. Based on the 'accident-due-to' and MMBB theory the article analyze the reason of unsafe event and make a qualitative and quantitative analysis about controller's workload which is the most important factor of work's quality. As a parliament and validation of above research, The real work in Shuangliu APP has been chosen to verify the theory this passage provided, And gain the max workload of ShuangLiu APP could afford; according to the study about the way to control unsafe event and under the guidance of HUMAN FACTOR OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, The article provides assessment of stability of controller's operation include life event analysis the stability of safe operation, also offers the suggestion for different degree of assessment; At last the article set forth the way to control andsettle the unsafe event, and provide the modification for different elements of ATC.
本文首先对中国民航近十年来所发生的空管不安全事件进行了统计分析,分析得出了目前我国航空运行中与空管相关的不安全事件的分布特征。结合中国民航的实际情况,构建了比较完整的空管系统,分别论述系统中人、机、环境等要素对空管系统安全性的影响。分析得出了空管三大组成环节:人,机和环境(空域环境和管制室微环境)对空管系统安全性的影响;以事故致因理论为依据,分析了空管不安全事件的发生机理。然后对影响空中交通管制员工作质量的最主要因素之一一工作负荷进行了定性分析,利用国际上比较成熟的MMBB方法对管制员的工作负荷进行了定量分析,并利用对成都进近管制室的实际工作统计数据,对研究结果进行了验证,分析得出了成都进近管制室的管制员最大工作负荷;通过对空管人因不安全事件管理与控制方法的认真分析和深入研究,本文提出了对管制员操作可靠性进行评价的方法,包括生活事件分析和操作可靠性评价,并针对不同评价等级,提出了提高安全性的建议;最后提出了空管人因不安全事件的控制对策与方法,针对空管系统组成的各个环节,提出了具体的整改措施。
As the development of civil aviation and the increase of air traffic flow, air traffic control system the main protector of air traffic's safety is facing a new challenge. Due to the number of unsafe events that cased by air traffic control are increasing year by year and the wild connection between ATC and other fields of study, how to curb the 'headstream' of unsafe events is the key to gain unsafe prevention and enhancement of wholly ATC system's security.
The whole article which shows us the distribution of insecurity incidents during the operation of air traffic is based on the analysis of statistic of unsafe events happened this decade. Also the article which associated with current situation of Chinese civil aviation has established an integrated ATC system, and has studied how the three main factors (human, machine, environment) influence the safety operation. Based on the 'accident-due-to' and MMBB theory the article analyze the reason of unsafe event and make a qualitative and quantitative analysis about controller's workload which is the most important factor of work's quality. As a parliament and validation of above research, The real work in Shuangliu APP has been chosen to verify the theory this passage provided, And gain the max workload of ShuangLiu APP could afford; according to the study about the way to control unsafe event and under the guidance of HUMAN FACTOR OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL, The article provides assessment of stability of controller's operation include life event analysis the stability of safe operation, also offers the suggestion for different degree of assessment; At last the article set forth the way to control andsettle the unsafe event, and provide the modification for different elements of ATC.
引文
[1]空中交通管理基础 潘卫军.[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,2002
[2]中国民航空管人为冈素研究 民航总局空管人为因素课题组民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集2002.6
[3]幻吴弯,许开立.安全管理学.[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002.
[4]凌海梅,任晓裕。对我国生产人为事故性灾害的反思.[J].灾害学,2002,(3)
[5]陈亚青.进近管制员工作进程分类及工作负荷研究.[M].中国安全科学学报,2006
[6]DhillonBS.On human reliability.[J].Micro electronics and reliability,1980(20):371-373.
[7]张青山 张海漾.人对人-机-环境系统效能的影响及其差错防范.[J].沈阳工业大学学报.2002年第24卷第1起.
[8]民航总局空管局人为因素课题组.人为因素研究报告.民航总局空管人为因素课题组民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集 2002.6
[9]Dennett,D.C.Darwin's Dangerous Idea.[M].New York:Simon & Schuster.1995.
[10]Golding,B.,ed.Non-Neutral Evolution.[M].New York:Chapman & Hall.1994.
[11]陈绪华.《在全国民航空管工作会议上的讲话》.中国民航出版社,1999
[12]Ott,E.Chaos in Dynamical Systems.[M].New York:Cambridge University Press.1993.
[13]王立刚 袁修干 杨春信.人-机-环境系统设计中人的性能研究.[J].北京航空航天大学学报.1997年第23卷第5期.
[14]Bechtel,W.and Richardson,R.C.Discovering Complexity.[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press.1993.
[15]Hogan.From Complexity to Perplexity.Sic.Am.1995.
[16]张金罡 空中交通管制决策过程与特点.[J].空中交通管理.2002.11
[17]何云.浅析在空管安全运行中来自各方面的人为因素.[J].民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集。
[18]高守峰,张恒刚.用SHELL法分析空中交通管制中人的因素对空管的影响 民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集。
[19]中国民航飞行学院.TB-20飞行员训练教材.1995
[20]BOEING.757 Operations Manual.1987
[21]王武宏,曹崎.人的失误及其可靠性分析.[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1999.
[22]Hollander E.Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method[M].Oxford(UK):Elsevier Science Ltd.,1998.
[23]凌海梅,任晓裕.对我国生产人为事故性灾害的反思.[J].灾害学,2002,(3):52-55.
[24]魏绍敏,田水承等.矿山人因事故的构成要素及分类初步研究.[J].煤炭技术,2003,(10):11-12.
[25]曾维华,程声通.环境灾害学引论.[M].北京:中国环境科学出版,2000.
[26]黄曙东,张力.人因失误根原因分析与对策.[J].人类工效学,2003,9(1):31-33
[27]王剑彬,林国湘,张力,曾庆生.人-机系统安全性模糊综合评价方法研究.[J].南华大学学报(理工版),2001,15(3):4-6.
[28]郭永基.可靠性工程原理.[M].北京:清华大学出版社.2002:18-19,199-202.
[29]董聪.现代结构系统可靠性理论及其应用.[M].科学技术出版社,2001:119-120
[30]Lede Helfrich.Human Reliability from social psychological perspective,int.J.Human Computer studies.1999.
[31]刘东民,孙桂林.安全人机工程学.[M].北京:中国劳动出版社,1993.
[32]欧阳文昭.安全人机工程学.[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1991.
[33]赵铁生,王恒毅等.工效学.[MJ.天津:天津科技翻译出版公司,1989.
[34]岳云峰.浅谈两种工作状态下的危险性及预防[J].民航总局人为因素研讨会论文集2002.6
[35]吕先昌、王先华等.企业现代化安全管理技术的探讨.[J].中国安全科学学报,2002.3
[36]International Civil Aviation Organization,Air Traffic Management.Fourteenth Edition.2002.
[37]International Civil Aviation Organization,Air Traffic Services Planning Manual.First Edition.1984.
[38]Air Traffic Quality Assurance.U.S.Department of Transportation.February 1,1998.
[39]AEA Technology-Aviation-Air Traffic Management,air aviation and air traffic safety management2002,NASY-oct2002.
[40]Axelrod.the Evolution of Cooperation.New York:Basic Books.1984.
[41]Wightman,A.S.Regular and Chaotic Motions in Dynamical Systems:In Introduction to the Problems.In Regular and Chaotic Motions in Dynamical Systems,eds.G.Velo and A.S.Wightman.New York:Plenum.1985.
[42]赵朝义,丁玉兰,杨中.人为失误及其辨识技术的研究.[J].工业安全与环保,2002,28(5):41.
[43]陈宅智,王金波.安全管理学.[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1999.
[44]程卫民,曹庆贵.安全综合评价中的若干问题及其改进方法.[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,9(4)75-78.
[45]运筹学与最优化方法 吴祈宗.[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2003
[46]张灵莹.定性指标评价的定量化研究.[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,7:98-101.
[47]"Air Traffic Control Standard Training Package course 052" Swedish ATS Academy,1998
[48]"Air Traffic Control Standard Training Package course 053" Swedish ATS Academy,1998
[49]ICAO.Air Traffic Services Planning Manual(Doc 9426).1996
[50]隋鹏程.安全科学与社会可持续发展[J].中国安仝科学学报,2000,10(2):7-12.
[51]张力,王以群.复杂人-机系统中的人因失误.[J].中国安全科学学报,1996,6(6):35-39
[52]中国民航总局空中交通管理局.中国民用航空空中交通管理规则.2001
[53]贺尔铭,丁峰.新航行系统自相关监视实施中的问题探讨.[J].西北工业大学学报,1999
[54]朱济杰.国际民航组织CNS/ATM系统的近期发展.[J].空中交通管理,1997
[55]何光勤 朱代武.目视和仪表飞行程序设计,[M].中国民航飞行学院
[56]J.R.Williams.THE ART OF INSTRUMENT FLYING HANDBOOK.U.S.Department of Transportation,1980
[57]马士观 范国良.民航航空航行简略语词典.[M].中国民航出版社,1998
[58]张波.管制员的技能和素质培养探讨.[J].空中交通管理.2005.(6).
[59]丁建江 刘国霖 徐向东 苏五星.航管雷达改善因子性能的综合改进.[J].武汉空军雷达学院,1998
[60]P.G.Retch.Analysis of Long-Range Air Traffic System:Separation Standards -I,Journal of the Institute of Navigation,Vol.19,P88-98,1966
[61]郭明伟.空中交通管制人为因素之--ATC系统性分析.[J].民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集。
[62]闰少华.空管自动化的人因素考虑[J].中国民航学院学报 2002(1)
[63]李志宪,杨漫红.安全文化对安仝行为的影响模式.[J].中国安全科学学报,2001,11(5):15-16.
[64]《全国空管发展十五规划》.2001,3
[65]邱致和.空中交通管制和空中交通管理系统.[M].电子工业部第二十研究所,2000,17:P42
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[2]中国民航空管人为冈素研究 民航总局空管人为因素课题组民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集2002.6
[3]幻吴弯,许开立.安全管理学.[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002.
[4]凌海梅,任晓裕。对我国生产人为事故性灾害的反思.[J].灾害学,2002,(3)
[5]陈亚青.进近管制员工作进程分类及工作负荷研究.[M].中国安全科学学报,2006
[6]DhillonBS.On human reliability.[J].Micro electronics and reliability,1980(20):371-373.
[7]张青山 张海漾.人对人-机-环境系统效能的影响及其差错防范.[J].沈阳工业大学学报.2002年第24卷第1起.
[8]民航总局空管局人为因素课题组.人为因素研究报告.民航总局空管人为因素课题组民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集 2002.6
[9]Dennett,D.C.Darwin's Dangerous Idea.[M].New York:Simon & Schuster.1995.
[10]Golding,B.,ed.Non-Neutral Evolution.[M].New York:Chapman & Hall.1994.
[11]陈绪华.《在全国民航空管工作会议上的讲话》.中国民航出版社,1999
[12]Ott,E.Chaos in Dynamical Systems.[M].New York:Cambridge University Press.1993.
[13]王立刚 袁修干 杨春信.人-机-环境系统设计中人的性能研究.[J].北京航空航天大学学报.1997年第23卷第5期.
[14]Bechtel,W.and Richardson,R.C.Discovering Complexity.[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press.1993.
[15]Hogan.From Complexity to Perplexity.Sic.Am.1995.
[16]张金罡 空中交通管制决策过程与特点.[J].空中交通管理.2002.11
[17]何云.浅析在空管安全运行中来自各方面的人为因素.[J].民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集。
[18]高守峰,张恒刚.用SHELL法分析空中交通管制中人的因素对空管的影响 民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集。
[19]中国民航飞行学院.TB-20飞行员训练教材.1995
[20]BOEING.757 Operations Manual.1987
[21]王武宏,曹崎.人的失误及其可靠性分析.[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1999.
[22]Hollander E.Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method[M].Oxford(UK):Elsevier Science Ltd.,1998.
[23]凌海梅,任晓裕.对我国生产人为事故性灾害的反思.[J].灾害学,2002,(3):52-55.
[24]魏绍敏,田水承等.矿山人因事故的构成要素及分类初步研究.[J].煤炭技术,2003,(10):11-12.
[25]曾维华,程声通.环境灾害学引论.[M].北京:中国环境科学出版,2000.
[26]黄曙东,张力.人因失误根原因分析与对策.[J].人类工效学,2003,9(1):31-33
[27]王剑彬,林国湘,张力,曾庆生.人-机系统安全性模糊综合评价方法研究.[J].南华大学学报(理工版),2001,15(3):4-6.
[28]郭永基.可靠性工程原理.[M].北京:清华大学出版社.2002:18-19,199-202.
[29]董聪.现代结构系统可靠性理论及其应用.[M].科学技术出版社,2001:119-120
[30]Lede Helfrich.Human Reliability from social psychological perspective,int.J.Human Computer studies.1999.
[31]刘东民,孙桂林.安全人机工程学.[M].北京:中国劳动出版社,1993.
[32]欧阳文昭.安全人机工程学.[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,1991.
[33]赵铁生,王恒毅等.工效学.[MJ.天津:天津科技翻译出版公司,1989.
[34]岳云峰.浅谈两种工作状态下的危险性及预防[J].民航总局人为因素研讨会论文集2002.6
[35]吕先昌、王先华等.企业现代化安全管理技术的探讨.[J].中国安全科学学报,2002.3
[36]International Civil Aviation Organization,Air Traffic Management.Fourteenth Edition.2002.
[37]International Civil Aviation Organization,Air Traffic Services Planning Manual.First Edition.1984.
[38]Air Traffic Quality Assurance.U.S.Department of Transportation.February 1,1998.
[39]AEA Technology-Aviation-Air Traffic Management,air aviation and air traffic safety management2002,NASY-oct2002.
[40]Axelrod.the Evolution of Cooperation.New York:Basic Books.1984.
[41]Wightman,A.S.Regular and Chaotic Motions in Dynamical Systems:In Introduction to the Problems.In Regular and Chaotic Motions in Dynamical Systems,eds.G.Velo and A.S.Wightman.New York:Plenum.1985.
[42]赵朝义,丁玉兰,杨中.人为失误及其辨识技术的研究.[J].工业安全与环保,2002,28(5):41.
[43]陈宅智,王金波.安全管理学.[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1999.
[44]程卫民,曹庆贵.安全综合评价中的若干问题及其改进方法.[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,9(4)75-78.
[45]运筹学与最优化方法 吴祈宗.[M].北京:机械工业出版社.2003
[46]张灵莹.定性指标评价的定量化研究.[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,7:98-101.
[47]"Air Traffic Control Standard Training Package course 052" Swedish ATS Academy,1998
[48]"Air Traffic Control Standard Training Package course 053" Swedish ATS Academy,1998
[49]ICAO.Air Traffic Services Planning Manual(Doc 9426).1996
[50]隋鹏程.安全科学与社会可持续发展[J].中国安仝科学学报,2000,10(2):7-12.
[51]张力,王以群.复杂人-机系统中的人因失误.[J].中国安全科学学报,1996,6(6):35-39
[52]中国民航总局空中交通管理局.中国民用航空空中交通管理规则.2001
[53]贺尔铭,丁峰.新航行系统自相关监视实施中的问题探讨.[J].西北工业大学学报,1999
[54]朱济杰.国际民航组织CNS/ATM系统的近期发展.[J].空中交通管理,1997
[55]何光勤 朱代武.目视和仪表飞行程序设计,[M].中国民航飞行学院
[56]J.R.Williams.THE ART OF INSTRUMENT FLYING HANDBOOK.U.S.Department of Transportation,1980
[57]马士观 范国良.民航航空航行简略语词典.[M].中国民航出版社,1998
[58]张波.管制员的技能和素质培养探讨.[J].空中交通管理.2005.(6).
[59]丁建江 刘国霖 徐向东 苏五星.航管雷达改善因子性能的综合改进.[J].武汉空军雷达学院,1998
[60]P.G.Retch.Analysis of Long-Range Air Traffic System:Separation Standards -I,Journal of the Institute of Navigation,Vol.19,P88-98,1966
[61]郭明伟.空中交通管制人为因素之--ATC系统性分析.[J].民航总局认为因素学术研讨会论文集。
[62]闰少华.空管自动化的人因素考虑[J].中国民航学院学报 2002(1)
[63]李志宪,杨漫红.安全文化对安仝行为的影响模式.[J].中国安全科学学报,2001,11(5):15-16.
[64]《全国空管发展十五规划》.2001,3
[65]邱致和.空中交通管制和空中交通管理系统.[M].电子工业部第二十研究所,2000,17:P42
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