人民币实际有效汇率变动的贸易增长效应分析
摘要
中国经济高速增长的30年间,外贸所起的作用不可小视。但是由于中国对主要贸易伙伴国一直以来均保持顺差并且顺差额逐年加大,造成贸易伙伴国颇有微词,普遍认为人民币汇率严重低估。迫于各方压力及中国经济可持续发展的需要,2005年7月开始按照主动性、可控性、渐进性的原则进行汇率制度改革,实行以市场供求为基础的、参考一篮子货币的浮动汇率制度。截至到2012年2月人民币兑美元汇率由8.0702升值到6.308,累计升值20.99%。人民币升值后带来一系列的影响,大部分领域的出口商品数量减少,出口企业利润下降,面临生存困境；贸易顺差减少,甚至2012年开始出现逆差。另一方面,人民币的升值也使得中国企业的进口成本下降,对我国进口企业来说无疑具有积极的作用。
汇率作为一国参与国际经济活动的重要的综合性指标,它的变化将对一国的贸易收支、经济增长及产业发展都会产生重要的影响。从人民币发展史来看,不论是在东南亚危机中的人民币贬值的争议,还是目前人民币面临的升值的压力,关注的焦点都集中在人民币和外贸之间的关系。因此分析人民币汇率与中国外贸之间的关系,不仅关系到中国外贸的健康平稳发展和人民币汇率制度改革的推进,并且关系到我国整个改革开放的大局,关系到中国与贸易伙伴国之间的贸易关系,因此研究人民币汇率变化与我国外贸之间的关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。
有关汇率与贸易的关系的研究方法主要有时滞效应分析法、货币分析法、吸收分析法和弹性分析法,已经形成了系统的理论体系。其中,尤其是弹性分析法中的马歇尔——勒纳条件,论述十分严谨。货币分析法、吸收分析法主要从宏观层面进行分析；时滞效应分析法、弹性分析法虽然都是微观层面的分析,但是它们对于汇率变动和贸易收支之间的关系进行了高度的抽象,有严格的假设前提,例如弹性分析法的假设前提是汇率变动等同于进出口实际价格的变动,时滞效应分析法的假设前提是进出口定价的货币比重存在不同。本文的研究目的并不是为了建立一个理论体系,而是针对现实中的现象做具体的分析,即从人民币实际有效汇率对中国对外贸易的发展这一角度进行重点研究,考察人民币汇率对国际贸易影响的作用机制和作用途径,以期对目前的汇率制度改革提供有益的建议和意见。
本文主要在实证分析时,不仅对全国层面上汇率对贸易的影响进行了全面的分析,同时为了区别区域之间的差异性,还做了分区域分析。除此之外,为了使汇率变化对我国贸易发展方式的影响有更为具体的认识,本文还进一步分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国加工贸易发展的影响。
本文拟分七章。
‘第一章为导论,主要介绍了本文的研究背景、研究意义、主要研究方法以及主要创新点。
第二章为文献综述部分,主要针对全球汇率制度的演变、人民币汇率的度量方法、人民币汇率对出口的影响、人民币汇率对进口的影响等几个方面进行了全面的文献分析,并进行了简单的总结。
第三章分析了汇改以来人民币实际有效汇率的变动情况。为了验证我们选取人民币实际有效汇率作为人民币汇率代理指标的合理性,我们进一步分析了人民币汇率和人民币有效汇率的变动情况,并对三个指标进行了各方面的比较。为了认清有些人认为的人民币汇率的低估是造成美国贸易逆差扩大的原因,采用计量分析的方法对人民币实际有效汇率和美国贸易逆差之间的关系进行了检验。结果发现人民币实际有效汇率的变动并不是造成美国对中国贸易逆差扩大的原因。接着分析了学术界的热点问题之一：马歇尔勒纳条件在中美贸易间的适用性问题进行了重点的分析。选取了中美贸易收支差额、人民币实际有效汇率、中国收入水平、美国收入水平四个变量,针对马歇尔勒纳条件的适用性进行了检验。结果发现,中美之间的贸易并不满足马歇尔勒纳条件中进出口商品需求弹性之和大于1的条件,这在一定程度上也可以解释为什么人民币升值7年多来中美之间的贸易顺差并没有降低的现象。
第四章采用全国层面上的省区面板数据实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国外贸发展的影响。选取了人民币实际有效汇率、实际利用外资、资本投入、劳动力投入以及非市场化程度等变量作为解释变量,借助广义矩估计方法(GMM)分析了各变量对我国外贸总额、进口额和出口额的影响。结果发现人民币实际有效汇率对我国的出口、进口的作用方向与传统经济理论的结论一致,其中对出口的促进作用(0.45)大于对进口的阻碍作用(-0.03),正负抵消后从而导致人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额产生了正向的促进作用(0.34)。因此在样本期间内,人民币实际有效汇率的升值对我国的外贸增长的长期影响是不利的,必须要在可控性、渐进性的原则下进行汇率制度的改革,并在改革过程中结合国内外的经济发展状况进行合理的调整,切不可因为进行汇改而影响国内经济发展良好势头。
为了进一步认清人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国外贸发展的区域不平衡现象产生了怎样的影响,在文章的第五章进行了分区域的检验。按照行政区域的划分样本省市划分为东中西部三个区域,分别检验了人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额、出口和进口的影响。结果表明,总体上来讲,人民币实际有效汇率的变动不论是对东部地区、中部地区还是对于西部地区外贸发展的影响均符合传统经济理论和金融理论的分析结果,即人民币对外贬值,会降低中国出口产品的国际市场价格,从而增加我国的出口；另一方面又会增加进口产品的国内市场价格,从而使得进口量减少。但是具体来说,人民币实际有效汇率对于东中西部外贸发展的作用大小存在一定的差别：(1)人民币实际有效汇率对外贸发展的影响分析结果显示,人民币实际有效汇率贬值1%,带动中部地区和西部地区的外贸发展0.5418%和0.2055%,明显大于东部地区的影响系数(0.1544)。(2)在出口贸易上,人民币实际有效汇率对于中部地区的出口贸易推动作用最大,为0.0460；其次为东部地区(0.0308)；人民币实际有效汇率对西部地区的促进作用最小,为0.020。(3)人民币汇率的变动对东部地区进口贸易的阻碍作用最大,人民币实际有效汇率每贬值1%,造成东部地区的进口贸易减少0.6245%；其次为中部地区影响系数为-0.0758；人民币实际有效汇率对西部地区的阻碍作用最小,为-0.066。
加工贸易在我国外贸发展中起到了重要的作用,占据了我国外贸发展的半壁江山,近年来推动加工贸易转型升级成为我国上至政府部门下至企业的重要任务。为了认清人民币实际有效汇率对我国外贸发展方式转变的影响,在本文的第六章分析了人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国加工贸易发展的影响。结果发现,不论是在长期还是短期人民币实际有效汇率都是影响我国加工贸易发展的重要原因。(1)利用Johansen协整检验方法得到的结果表明,从长期来看,人民币实际有效汇率和加工贸易发展变量之间存在负相关的关系。人民币汇率币值每增长(贬值)1%,我国的加工贸易额增速降低0.36415%。(2)误差修正模型的检验结果表明,上年的人民币实际有效汇率、技术进步、利用外资和对外开放度等变量的非均衡误差以0.5293%的速度对本年度的加工贸易额做出修正。(3)最后,利用脉冲响应函数和方法分解方法对各个变量对加工贸易的影响进行了分解。分解结果表明人民币实际有效汇率的变化是导致加工贸易额变化的主导因素,而代表开放水平的对外开放度对加工贸易的影响相对较小。说明金融全球化和资本的跨国流动对我国的加工贸易的影响更为深远。人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国加工贸易产生的阻碍作用更大,这一结论致使我们思考,是否我国的劳动力比较优势已经丧失,从而导致人民币实际有效汇率的变动对劳动密集型产品出口为主的加工贸易的阻碍作用更为明显?我国的人口红利时期是否已经结束,“刘易斯拐点”是否已经出现?我们借助于刘易斯模型分析计算了我国农业部门和工业部门的边际劳动生产率,结果发现我国已经在2003年跨过了“刘易斯第一拐点”并且可能将在2022年跨过“刘易斯第二拐点”,我国已经从劳动力无限剩余进入了有限供给阶段,劳动力比较有优势正在慢慢消逝。
第七章为本文的研究结论和政策建议部分。
Foreign trade has been playing an important role in China's rapid economic growth during30years. However, due to China's huge trade surplus year after year, her major trading partners veiled criticism, and generally believed that the RMB exchange rate was seriously underestimated. Under the pressure from other countries and due to China's economic needs of sustainable development, on July2005, china reformed the exchange rate regime of RMB, following the principle of market-based, initiative, controllability and granularity. From then on, we started to follow the exchange rate system which is referred to a basket of currency fluctuations. By the time of February2012, the exchange rate of RMB to U.S. dollar had appreciated from8.0702to6.308, cumulatively appreciated20.99%. The appreciation of RMB had brought a series of effect, such as decrease of most goods, decline in corporate's export-profits and the reduced trade surplus. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB had been making Chinese enterprises' import-costs decline, which undoubtedly had a positive effect for the import enterprises in China.In summary, the exchange rate is an important indicator for participating in international economic activity, and its changes have important roles on country's trade balance, economic growth and industrial developments. Therefore, much attention had been paid in the study of exchange rate system.
As an important indicator of a country's participation in international economic activities, the change of exchange rate has an important impact on a country's balance of trade, economic growth and industrial development. From the history of RMB development, the attention has focused on the relationship between the RMB and foreign trade, not only in the dispute of RMB devaluation in the Southeast Asian crisis, but also the appreciation pressure right now. Therefore, analysis of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade not only related to the healthy and stable development of China's foreign trade, the RMB exchange rate reform, but also related to the overall situation of reform and opening up, the trade relations between China and trade partners. Therefore, the analysis of the relationship of the RMB exchange rate changes and China's foreign trade has important theoretical and practical significance.
The method of research on the relationship between the exchange rate and the trade are lag effect analysis, monetary analysis, absorption analysis and elastic analysis, and the system's theoretical system has been formed. Especially, the research of Marshall-Lerner condition in the elastic analysis is very rigorous exposition. Monetary analysis, absorption analysis is mainly analyzed from the macro-level; lag effect analysis, elastic analysis is analyzed from the micro-level analysis. And these methods get high degree of abstractions of the relationship between exchange rate changes and trade balance, and have strict assumptions. For example, the assumption of elastic analysis is that the change of the actual price of the import is equal to the exchange rate changes of export, the assumptions of the time lag effect analysis is that the share of import and export pricing currency are different. The purpose of this study is not to establish a theoretical system, but to do a specific analysis on the reality of the phenomenon, mainly focused on the impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the development of China's foreign trade, inspect on the mechanisms and pathways of the RMB exchange rate on international trade, so as to provide useful suggestions and comments on the current exchange rate system reform.
In this paper, we mainly focus on the influences of the real effective exchange rate of RMB to the development of China's foreign trade; examine the role of the exchange rate of RMB on international trade mechanisms and pathways so as to provide useful suggestions and comments on the current exchange rate system reform. In the empirical analysis, we not only study the impact of exchange rate on trade all over the country, but also make a sub-regional analysis. In addition, in order to have a concrete understanding of the impact of exchange rate changes on China's trade development mode, we also make a specific analysis of the impact of real effective exchange rate on the development of China's trade.
This paper is divided into seven chapters.
The first chapter was the introduction, introduced the research background, significance, research methods and innovations.
The second chapter was the literature review section. Conducted a comprehensive literature review, mainly about the evolution of the global exchange rate regime, the measures of RMB exchange rate, the impacts of exchange rate of RMB on exports and imports and so on, in the last part of this chapter was a simple summary.
In the third chapter we analyzed the changes of real effective exchange rate of RMB since the reform.In order to compare our rationality to select the real effective exchange rate as a proxy indicator of the RMB exchange rate, we further analyzed the changes of the exchange rate and the effective exchange rate of RMB, and compared the three indicators. For the purpose of recognizing the view that the underestimation of RMB exchange rate is the reason of the widening U.S. trade deficit, we further used quantitative analysis to test the relationship between RMB exchange rate and U.S. trade deficit. The results showed that the expanding U.S. trade deficit was not caused by RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Then, we analyzed one of the hot issues of academia:Is Marshall-Lerner condition is applicable in Sino-US trade. We selected four variables such as the Sino-US trade balance, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, China's income level, American income levels to test the applicability of the Marshall-Lerner condition. The results showed that the Marshall-Lerner condition was not applicable in Sino-US trade. To some extent, these results could explain the reasons why the trade surplus between China and U.S.A did not reduce while RMB appreciation over the past seven years.
In the fourth chapter, we used the provincial panel data to analyze the impact of the real effective exchange rate fluctuations on our foreign trade development. We selected the real effective exchange rate, the actual utilization of foreign investment, capital investment, labor input, as well as the extent of non-market variables as explanatory variables, with the generalized estimation method of moments (GMM) we examined the relationship of each variable with China's total foreign trade, imports and exports. The results showed that the test results of the relationship of RMB real effective exchange rate with China's exports, imports are in line with the conclusions of the traditional economic theories. The real effective exchange rate of RMB hindered export promotion more (0.45) than imports (-0.03), which lead to the positive influence on total foreign trade. So, in the sample period, the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation on the growth of foreign trade is adverse. The reform of RMB exchange rate must be conducted under the principles of controllability and progressive. In the process of this reform, reasonable adjustments must be done thinking out the economic development both at home and abroad, avoiding that our domestic environment of economic development was harried by. the exchange rate reform.
In order to further probe into the relationship of the changes of RMB exchange rate and the phenomenon of regional imbalances in China, a sub-region tests was done in the fifth chapter. We divided all samples in accordance with the administrative areas by provinces and cities into three regions of the eastern, the central and the western, examined the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the total foreign trade, exports and imports respectively. The results showed that, the relationships of the real effective exchange rate changes and trade development was in line with the results of the analysis of the traditional managerial theory and financial theory both in the eastern western and central region, which indicated that the external devaluation of RMB would reduce the price of Chinese exports products in international market, thereby increasing the export of our country. On the ether hand, the external devaluation would increase the prices of the imported products in domestic market, thus making imports decreased. Specifically, the effects of real effective exchange rate on trade development in different regions was different:(1) when the RMB exchange rate depreciated by1percent, the development of foreign trade in central and western region increased0.5418%and0.2055%, significantly greater than the impact coefficient in eastern part (0.1544).(2) The role in promoting export trade of real effective exchange rate in central region is the biggest (0.0460); followed by the eastern region (0.0308).(3) RMB exchange rate changes hindered the import trade in eastern part worst, for every1%depreciation of the real effective exchange rate would result a decrease of import trade about0.6245%; followed by the influence coefficient of the central region which was-0.0758, the smallest was-0.066which was in the western region.
The processing trade had played an important role in China's foreign trade, which accounted for half of China's foreign trade in recent years. The upgrading of processing trade became the important task of both the government departments and the enterprises. In order to recognize the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the changes of China's foreign trade development mode, in the sixth chapter we analyzed the impact of real effective exchange rate fluctuations on the development of China's processing trade. The results showed that, both in the long-term or the short-term, the real effective exchange rate was the important reason of the development of China's processing trade.①Johansen cointegration test results showed that in the long term, the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate and the development of processing trade is negative. The real effective exchange rate depreciated1%, the growth rate of China's processing trade volume decreased by0.36415%.②The error correction model test results showed that the non-equilibrium error of the variables of RMB exchange rate, the technological advances, the use of foreign investment and the opening up last year made amendments of the processing trade to0.5293%this year.③Finally, we used the impulse response function and the decomposition method to decompose the influence of each variable on the processing trade. The decomposition results showed that the real effective exchange rate change was the dominant factor leading to the changes in the processing trade volume, while the role of the level of opening up of the processing trade is relatively small. Financial globalization and cross-border flows of capital are more far-reaching impact on China's processing trade. The volatility of RMB exchange rate hinder a greater role on China's processing trade, this conclusion led us to think about a question that whether China's comparative advantage in labor had lost, which lead to the more obvious hinder of RMB exchange rate volatility on the export of processing trade barriers? Whether China's demographic dividend period has ended and "Lewis turning point" has emerged? In order to recognize this question, we calculate the marginal productivity of labor in agricultural sector and the industrial sector by means of Lewis model, which demonstrate that China has crossed over "the first Lewis turning point" in2003, and in2022will arrive "the second Lewis turning point", China has entered the limited supply of labor from unlimited stage, and the comparative advantage in labor is being slowly fade away.
Chapter seven is the part of conclusions and policy recommendations.
汇率作为一国参与国际经济活动的重要的综合性指标,它的变化将对一国的贸易收支、经济增长及产业发展都会产生重要的影响。从人民币发展史来看,不论是在东南亚危机中的人民币贬值的争议,还是目前人民币面临的升值的压力,关注的焦点都集中在人民币和外贸之间的关系。因此分析人民币汇率与中国外贸之间的关系,不仅关系到中国外贸的健康平稳发展和人民币汇率制度改革的推进,并且关系到我国整个改革开放的大局,关系到中国与贸易伙伴国之间的贸易关系,因此研究人民币汇率变化与我国外贸之间的关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。
有关汇率与贸易的关系的研究方法主要有时滞效应分析法、货币分析法、吸收分析法和弹性分析法,已经形成了系统的理论体系。其中,尤其是弹性分析法中的马歇尔——勒纳条件,论述十分严谨。货币分析法、吸收分析法主要从宏观层面进行分析；时滞效应分析法、弹性分析法虽然都是微观层面的分析,但是它们对于汇率变动和贸易收支之间的关系进行了高度的抽象,有严格的假设前提,例如弹性分析法的假设前提是汇率变动等同于进出口实际价格的变动,时滞效应分析法的假设前提是进出口定价的货币比重存在不同。本文的研究目的并不是为了建立一个理论体系,而是针对现实中的现象做具体的分析,即从人民币实际有效汇率对中国对外贸易的发展这一角度进行重点研究,考察人民币汇率对国际贸易影响的作用机制和作用途径,以期对目前的汇率制度改革提供有益的建议和意见。
本文主要在实证分析时,不仅对全国层面上汇率对贸易的影响进行了全面的分析,同时为了区别区域之间的差异性,还做了分区域分析。除此之外,为了使汇率变化对我国贸易发展方式的影响有更为具体的认识,本文还进一步分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国加工贸易发展的影响。
本文拟分七章。
‘第一章为导论,主要介绍了本文的研究背景、研究意义、主要研究方法以及主要创新点。
第二章为文献综述部分,主要针对全球汇率制度的演变、人民币汇率的度量方法、人民币汇率对出口的影响、人民币汇率对进口的影响等几个方面进行了全面的文献分析,并进行了简单的总结。
第三章分析了汇改以来人民币实际有效汇率的变动情况。为了验证我们选取人民币实际有效汇率作为人民币汇率代理指标的合理性,我们进一步分析了人民币汇率和人民币有效汇率的变动情况,并对三个指标进行了各方面的比较。为了认清有些人认为的人民币汇率的低估是造成美国贸易逆差扩大的原因,采用计量分析的方法对人民币实际有效汇率和美国贸易逆差之间的关系进行了检验。结果发现人民币实际有效汇率的变动并不是造成美国对中国贸易逆差扩大的原因。接着分析了学术界的热点问题之一：马歇尔勒纳条件在中美贸易间的适用性问题进行了重点的分析。选取了中美贸易收支差额、人民币实际有效汇率、中国收入水平、美国收入水平四个变量,针对马歇尔勒纳条件的适用性进行了检验。结果发现,中美之间的贸易并不满足马歇尔勒纳条件中进出口商品需求弹性之和大于1的条件,这在一定程度上也可以解释为什么人民币升值7年多来中美之间的贸易顺差并没有降低的现象。
第四章采用全国层面上的省区面板数据实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国外贸发展的影响。选取了人民币实际有效汇率、实际利用外资、资本投入、劳动力投入以及非市场化程度等变量作为解释变量,借助广义矩估计方法(GMM)分析了各变量对我国外贸总额、进口额和出口额的影响。结果发现人民币实际有效汇率对我国的出口、进口的作用方向与传统经济理论的结论一致,其中对出口的促进作用(0.45)大于对进口的阻碍作用(-0.03),正负抵消后从而导致人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额产生了正向的促进作用(0.34)。因此在样本期间内,人民币实际有效汇率的升值对我国的外贸增长的长期影响是不利的,必须要在可控性、渐进性的原则下进行汇率制度的改革,并在改革过程中结合国内外的经济发展状况进行合理的调整,切不可因为进行汇改而影响国内经济发展良好势头。
为了进一步认清人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国外贸发展的区域不平衡现象产生了怎样的影响,在文章的第五章进行了分区域的检验。按照行政区域的划分样本省市划分为东中西部三个区域,分别检验了人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额、出口和进口的影响。结果表明,总体上来讲,人民币实际有效汇率的变动不论是对东部地区、中部地区还是对于西部地区外贸发展的影响均符合传统经济理论和金融理论的分析结果,即人民币对外贬值,会降低中国出口产品的国际市场价格,从而增加我国的出口；另一方面又会增加进口产品的国内市场价格,从而使得进口量减少。但是具体来说,人民币实际有效汇率对于东中西部外贸发展的作用大小存在一定的差别：(1)人民币实际有效汇率对外贸发展的影响分析结果显示,人民币实际有效汇率贬值1%,带动中部地区和西部地区的外贸发展0.5418%和0.2055%,明显大于东部地区的影响系数(0.1544)。(2)在出口贸易上,人民币实际有效汇率对于中部地区的出口贸易推动作用最大,为0.0460；其次为东部地区(0.0308)；人民币实际有效汇率对西部地区的促进作用最小,为0.020。(3)人民币汇率的变动对东部地区进口贸易的阻碍作用最大,人民币实际有效汇率每贬值1%,造成东部地区的进口贸易减少0.6245%；其次为中部地区影响系数为-0.0758；人民币实际有效汇率对西部地区的阻碍作用最小,为-0.066。
加工贸易在我国外贸发展中起到了重要的作用,占据了我国外贸发展的半壁江山,近年来推动加工贸易转型升级成为我国上至政府部门下至企业的重要任务。为了认清人民币实际有效汇率对我国外贸发展方式转变的影响,在本文的第六章分析了人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国加工贸易发展的影响。结果发现,不论是在长期还是短期人民币实际有效汇率都是影响我国加工贸易发展的重要原因。(1)利用Johansen协整检验方法得到的结果表明,从长期来看,人民币实际有效汇率和加工贸易发展变量之间存在负相关的关系。人民币汇率币值每增长(贬值)1%,我国的加工贸易额增速降低0.36415%。(2)误差修正模型的检验结果表明,上年的人民币实际有效汇率、技术进步、利用外资和对外开放度等变量的非均衡误差以0.5293%的速度对本年度的加工贸易额做出修正。(3)最后,利用脉冲响应函数和方法分解方法对各个变量对加工贸易的影响进行了分解。分解结果表明人民币实际有效汇率的变化是导致加工贸易额变化的主导因素,而代表开放水平的对外开放度对加工贸易的影响相对较小。说明金融全球化和资本的跨国流动对我国的加工贸易的影响更为深远。人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国加工贸易产生的阻碍作用更大,这一结论致使我们思考,是否我国的劳动力比较优势已经丧失,从而导致人民币实际有效汇率的变动对劳动密集型产品出口为主的加工贸易的阻碍作用更为明显?我国的人口红利时期是否已经结束,“刘易斯拐点”是否已经出现?我们借助于刘易斯模型分析计算了我国农业部门和工业部门的边际劳动生产率,结果发现我国已经在2003年跨过了“刘易斯第一拐点”并且可能将在2022年跨过“刘易斯第二拐点”,我国已经从劳动力无限剩余进入了有限供给阶段,劳动力比较有优势正在慢慢消逝。
第七章为本文的研究结论和政策建议部分。
Foreign trade has been playing an important role in China's rapid economic growth during30years. However, due to China's huge trade surplus year after year, her major trading partners veiled criticism, and generally believed that the RMB exchange rate was seriously underestimated. Under the pressure from other countries and due to China's economic needs of sustainable development, on July2005, china reformed the exchange rate regime of RMB, following the principle of market-based, initiative, controllability and granularity. From then on, we started to follow the exchange rate system which is referred to a basket of currency fluctuations. By the time of February2012, the exchange rate of RMB to U.S. dollar had appreciated from8.0702to6.308, cumulatively appreciated20.99%. The appreciation of RMB had brought a series of effect, such as decrease of most goods, decline in corporate's export-profits and the reduced trade surplus. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB had been making Chinese enterprises' import-costs decline, which undoubtedly had a positive effect for the import enterprises in China.In summary, the exchange rate is an important indicator for participating in international economic activity, and its changes have important roles on country's trade balance, economic growth and industrial developments. Therefore, much attention had been paid in the study of exchange rate system.
As an important indicator of a country's participation in international economic activities, the change of exchange rate has an important impact on a country's balance of trade, economic growth and industrial development. From the history of RMB development, the attention has focused on the relationship between the RMB and foreign trade, not only in the dispute of RMB devaluation in the Southeast Asian crisis, but also the appreciation pressure right now. Therefore, analysis of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade not only related to the healthy and stable development of China's foreign trade, the RMB exchange rate reform, but also related to the overall situation of reform and opening up, the trade relations between China and trade partners. Therefore, the analysis of the relationship of the RMB exchange rate changes and China's foreign trade has important theoretical and practical significance.
The method of research on the relationship between the exchange rate and the trade are lag effect analysis, monetary analysis, absorption analysis and elastic analysis, and the system's theoretical system has been formed. Especially, the research of Marshall-Lerner condition in the elastic analysis is very rigorous exposition. Monetary analysis, absorption analysis is mainly analyzed from the macro-level; lag effect analysis, elastic analysis is analyzed from the micro-level analysis. And these methods get high degree of abstractions of the relationship between exchange rate changes and trade balance, and have strict assumptions. For example, the assumption of elastic analysis is that the change of the actual price of the import is equal to the exchange rate changes of export, the assumptions of the time lag effect analysis is that the share of import and export pricing currency are different. The purpose of this study is not to establish a theoretical system, but to do a specific analysis on the reality of the phenomenon, mainly focused on the impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the development of China's foreign trade, inspect on the mechanisms and pathways of the RMB exchange rate on international trade, so as to provide useful suggestions and comments on the current exchange rate system reform.
In this paper, we mainly focus on the influences of the real effective exchange rate of RMB to the development of China's foreign trade; examine the role of the exchange rate of RMB on international trade mechanisms and pathways so as to provide useful suggestions and comments on the current exchange rate system reform. In the empirical analysis, we not only study the impact of exchange rate on trade all over the country, but also make a sub-regional analysis. In addition, in order to have a concrete understanding of the impact of exchange rate changes on China's trade development mode, we also make a specific analysis of the impact of real effective exchange rate on the development of China's trade.
This paper is divided into seven chapters.
The first chapter was the introduction, introduced the research background, significance, research methods and innovations.
The second chapter was the literature review section. Conducted a comprehensive literature review, mainly about the evolution of the global exchange rate regime, the measures of RMB exchange rate, the impacts of exchange rate of RMB on exports and imports and so on, in the last part of this chapter was a simple summary.
In the third chapter we analyzed the changes of real effective exchange rate of RMB since the reform.In order to compare our rationality to select the real effective exchange rate as a proxy indicator of the RMB exchange rate, we further analyzed the changes of the exchange rate and the effective exchange rate of RMB, and compared the three indicators. For the purpose of recognizing the view that the underestimation of RMB exchange rate is the reason of the widening U.S. trade deficit, we further used quantitative analysis to test the relationship between RMB exchange rate and U.S. trade deficit. The results showed that the expanding U.S. trade deficit was not caused by RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Then, we analyzed one of the hot issues of academia:Is Marshall-Lerner condition is applicable in Sino-US trade. We selected four variables such as the Sino-US trade balance, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, China's income level, American income levels to test the applicability of the Marshall-Lerner condition. The results showed that the Marshall-Lerner condition was not applicable in Sino-US trade. To some extent, these results could explain the reasons why the trade surplus between China and U.S.A did not reduce while RMB appreciation over the past seven years.
In the fourth chapter, we used the provincial panel data to analyze the impact of the real effective exchange rate fluctuations on our foreign trade development. We selected the real effective exchange rate, the actual utilization of foreign investment, capital investment, labor input, as well as the extent of non-market variables as explanatory variables, with the generalized estimation method of moments (GMM) we examined the relationship of each variable with China's total foreign trade, imports and exports. The results showed that the test results of the relationship of RMB real effective exchange rate with China's exports, imports are in line with the conclusions of the traditional economic theories. The real effective exchange rate of RMB hindered export promotion more (0.45) than imports (-0.03), which lead to the positive influence on total foreign trade. So, in the sample period, the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation on the growth of foreign trade is adverse. The reform of RMB exchange rate must be conducted under the principles of controllability and progressive. In the process of this reform, reasonable adjustments must be done thinking out the economic development both at home and abroad, avoiding that our domestic environment of economic development was harried by. the exchange rate reform.
In order to further probe into the relationship of the changes of RMB exchange rate and the phenomenon of regional imbalances in China, a sub-region tests was done in the fifth chapter. We divided all samples in accordance with the administrative areas by provinces and cities into three regions of the eastern, the central and the western, examined the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the total foreign trade, exports and imports respectively. The results showed that, the relationships of the real effective exchange rate changes and trade development was in line with the results of the analysis of the traditional managerial theory and financial theory both in the eastern western and central region, which indicated that the external devaluation of RMB would reduce the price of Chinese exports products in international market, thereby increasing the export of our country. On the ether hand, the external devaluation would increase the prices of the imported products in domestic market, thus making imports decreased. Specifically, the effects of real effective exchange rate on trade development in different regions was different:(1) when the RMB exchange rate depreciated by1percent, the development of foreign trade in central and western region increased0.5418%and0.2055%, significantly greater than the impact coefficient in eastern part (0.1544).(2) The role in promoting export trade of real effective exchange rate in central region is the biggest (0.0460); followed by the eastern region (0.0308).(3) RMB exchange rate changes hindered the import trade in eastern part worst, for every1%depreciation of the real effective exchange rate would result a decrease of import trade about0.6245%; followed by the influence coefficient of the central region which was-0.0758, the smallest was-0.066which was in the western region.
The processing trade had played an important role in China's foreign trade, which accounted for half of China's foreign trade in recent years. The upgrading of processing trade became the important task of both the government departments and the enterprises. In order to recognize the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the changes of China's foreign trade development mode, in the sixth chapter we analyzed the impact of real effective exchange rate fluctuations on the development of China's processing trade. The results showed that, both in the long-term or the short-term, the real effective exchange rate was the important reason of the development of China's processing trade.①Johansen cointegration test results showed that in the long term, the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate and the development of processing trade is negative. The real effective exchange rate depreciated1%, the growth rate of China's processing trade volume decreased by0.36415%.②The error correction model test results showed that the non-equilibrium error of the variables of RMB exchange rate, the technological advances, the use of foreign investment and the opening up last year made amendments of the processing trade to0.5293%this year.③Finally, we used the impulse response function and the decomposition method to decompose the influence of each variable on the processing trade. The decomposition results showed that the real effective exchange rate change was the dominant factor leading to the changes in the processing trade volume, while the role of the level of opening up of the processing trade is relatively small. Financial globalization and cross-border flows of capital are more far-reaching impact on China's processing trade. The volatility of RMB exchange rate hinder a greater role on China's processing trade, this conclusion led us to think about a question that whether China's comparative advantage in labor had lost, which lead to the more obvious hinder of RMB exchange rate volatility on the export of processing trade barriers? Whether China's demographic dividend period has ended and "Lewis turning point" has emerged? In order to recognize this question, we calculate the marginal productivity of labor in agricultural sector and the industrial sector by means of Lewis model, which demonstrate that China has crossed over "the first Lewis turning point" in2003, and in2022will arrive "the second Lewis turning point", China has entered the limited supply of labor from unlimited stage, and the comparative advantage in labor is being slowly fade away.
Chapter seven is the part of conclusions and policy recommendations.
引文
① Jeannette Capel. Exchange Rate Effects on a Firm's Output Composition. Amsterdam thesis publishers,1993:113-138.
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