黑龙江省农业机械化发展的系统分析与对策研究
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摘要
近些年来,随着全球经济一体化进程的加快,解决“三农”问题成为党和国家关注的热点,反映在从2004年至2010年中央七个一号文件关于农业机械化的内容不断增多,内涵更加丰富,农业机械化在“三农”工作中的地位和作用愈加被强化。
黑龙江省是农业大省,是全国最大的农业主产区和全国最大的商品粮基地,其农业综合生产力水平和农业机械化水平处于全国前列,但与发达国家相比,整体水平仍处于农业机械化中级阶段。因此,积极推进黑龙江省农业机械化,是在新的历史条件下巩固和加强农业基础地位、实现农业现代化的必然要求。为了加速黑龙江省农业机械化进程,运用科学的农业机械化管理理论与技术在实际农业生产中的需求越来越迫切,成为影响农业机械化作用发挥的重要因素,也直接影响着农业机械运用的经济效益和社会效益。
在新形势下运用系统工程方法、计算机技术等现代数据处理方法加强农业机械化管理领域中定量分析方法的研究,科学、合理地解决农业机械化管理工作中遇到的各种问题,并促进农业机械化管理决策现代化、科学化是非常重要和必要的。本文对黑龙江省农业机械化发展问题进行了系统的研究,为科学、准确的把握农业机械化发展水平,影响农业机械化发展的主要因素,农业机械化的未来发展态势、目标,提出促进农业机械化发展的对策措施,促进农业机械化又好又快发展,加强农业基础地位,实现农业机械化与经济协调发展,繁荣农村经济,具有极其重要的意义。本文主要研究工作如下:
(1)为了能深入系统的研究黑龙江省农业机械化发展情况,根据黑龙江省农业机械化发展的历史数据资料,结合农机管理局实地调查情况,对黑龙江省农业机械化的发展历程、基本现状、发展的有利条件、存在的主要问题等进行分析。
(2)为科学的评价农业机械化发展水平,在分析比较现有农业机械化发展水平评价方法的研究成果基础上,结合黑龙江省实际情况,针对种植业对灌溉和植保要求较高,及原有的评价指标体系只能体现农机总量的变化,没有考虑农机的配套情况,农机人员的评价只能体现人员素质不能体现人员数量变化的情况,对黑龙江省农业机械化发展水平评价指标体系进行了改进研究。
(3)应用专家调查法和查阅文献的方法确定了各个评价指标的标准值和权重。用综合评价法测算2001~2008年黑龙江省农业机械化发展水平,利用测算结果分析黑龙江省农业机械化发展水平的发展变化及阻碍农业机械化发展的原因。利用2008年统计数据,对黑龙江省各个地区农业机械化发展水平进行评价,并对评价结果进行分析和地区比较,为分地区指导黑龙江省农业机械化发展提供科学依据。
(4)对黑龙江省农业机械化发展环境进行辨识和展望。第一,对农业机械化发展环境因素进行辨识;第二,选择影响农业机械化发展的社会与经济环境因素、农业生产资源因素、农机装备及技术因素共3类22个因素,依据黑龙江省2001~2008年的有关数据,建立灰色综合关联度分析模型,确定黑龙江省农业机械化发展的主要影响因素;第三,利用定性和定量相结合的分析方法对与黑龙江省农业机械化发展密切相关的一些环境因素进行预测和展望;第四,对农业机械化未来发展环境进行综合分析。
(5)鉴于黑龙江省农业机械化的发展态势有明显的非线性特性,其发展变化具有增长性和波动性,对于拟合方法要求较高。通过对灰色预测法、回归预测法、BP神经网络预测法及遗传算法等进行分析研究,提出了对黑龙江省农业机械化发展态势进行预测的基于BP神经网络的组合预测方法、基于遗传算法的改进GM(1,1)模型、基于BP神经网络的误差修正模型等新方法,并对黑龙江省农业机械化发展态势进行了预测。
(6)农业机械化发展需要环境支撑,同时农业机械化发展对环境也有促进作用。为了探求农业机械化和发展环境之间相互作用的内在规律,确定对农业机械化发展影响最直接、最强烈的地区经济、农业经济与农业机械化之间的关系模型;然后,根据黑龙江省地区经济总产值和农业总产值未来发展情况,通过经济增长与农业机械化增长之间的关系来确定经济增长对农业机械化的需求。
(7)根据农业机械化发展目标预测结果和经济发展对农业机械化需求预测,并与国内外农业机械化发展的先进水平相比较,综合考虑最终确定出黑龙江省农业机械化的具体发展目标值;运用定性和定量相结合的方法,从黑龙江省经济实力增长,机械化发展对每年对财政投入需要量,政府每年可以对农机发展投入的资金量,国家补贴政策,农机服务组织,工业化和城市化进程,农机工业发展等方面对发展目标的实现进行可行性分析。
(8)提出黑龙江省农业机械化发展重点及对策措施。考虑有利于增加农民的收入,有较高的投资效益,发展农业机械化的相对薄弱环节及保护环境等,同时结合黑龙江省大农业发展战略,提出黑龙江省农业机械化发展重点;根据黑龙江省农业机械化发展重点及影响农业机械化发展主要因素提出促进农业机械化发展的对策,为政府有关管理部门科学决策和制定发展规划提供参考。
In recent years, as the process of global economic integration accelerating,how to solve the issues of agriculture, farmers and rural area become the concern focus for the party and state, the content of seven central No.1 document on agriculture mechanization is increasing and richer from 2004 to 2010, the status and role of agricultural mechanization in "three rural" is increasingly strengthened.
Heilongjiang Province is a major agriculture province, which is the largest major agricultural production region and China's largest commodity grain base, the level of agricultural comprehensive productivity and mechanization are in the forefront of the country, but compared with developed countries, the overall level is still at the intermediate stage of agricultural mechanization. Therefore, actively promoting agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province is a necessary requirement to consolidate and strengthen agriculture foundation status, and to achieve agricultural modernization in the new historical conditions. In order to speed up the process of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, the demands of using scientific management theory and technology of agricultural mechanization in actual agricultural production is becoming more and more pressing, which not only plays an important factor in agricultural mechanization development, but also directly affects economic efficiency and social benefits using agricultural machinery.
Therefore, in the new situation, it is very important and necessary to use system engineering, computer technology and other modern data processing methods to enhance the research on quantitative analysis method for agricultural mechanization management, to scientifically and reasonably solute problems encountered in agricultural mechanization management, and to promote decision-making modernization and scientific in agriculture mechanization management. In this paper, the development of agricultural mechanization was systematic studied in Heilongjiang Province, which has extremely important significant for scientific and accurate grasping the development level of agricultural mechanization,the main influence factors, the future development trends and development goals of agricultural mechanization, putting forward the countermeasures, promoting the sound and rapid development of agricultural mechanization, strengthening foundation state of agriculture, achieving coordinated development of economic and prosperity in the rural economy. Major research works are as follows:
(1) In order to thoroughly and systematically study the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, according to the historical development data of agricultural mechanization, combined with field investigated conditions by agricultural machinery authority in Heilongjiang Province, the development process, the basic situation, the favorable condition, and the main problems of agricultural mechanization were analyzed.
(2) In order to scientific evaluate the development level of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, On the basis of analyzing the existence research finding of agricultural mechanization and taking into consideration the actual development situation in Heilongjiang province, against to the high request of farming to irrigation and plant protection, the original evaluation indicators of comprehensive protection ability of agricultural mechanization can only reflect the total changes of agricultural machinery,but can’t reflect the match conditions of agricultural machinery, the evaluation of agricultural machinery employees can only reflect the quality of personnel, but can’t reflect the number changes of personnel, the improved evaluation index system of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was researched.
(3) Standard values and weights of various indexes were determined by expert investigation method and referring to literature. The development level of agricultural mechanization was measured by comprehensive assessment method from 2001 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, and then the change of the development level of agricultural mechanization and the reasons of hampering agricultural mechanization were analyzed in Heilongjiang Province. The development level of agricultural mechanization was evaluated using statistics data in 2008 in various regions of Heilongjiang Province, and the evaluation results were analyzed and compared, which provided a scientific basis for guiding the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province.
(4) To identify and prospect the development environment of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province.First, the development environment of agricultural mechanization was identified;second, Social and economic environment factors, agricultural production resource factors, agricultural equipment and technical factors influencing the development of agricultural mechanization were selected. Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, grey comprehensive correlation analysis model was established, the main factors influencing the development of agricultural mechanization were determined in Heilongjiang Province;third, by the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, some environmental factors closely related to the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were predicted and prospected;fourth, the future development environment of agricultural mechanization was analyzed.
(5) In view of the development of agricultural mechanization has complicated non-linear characteristics, whose developmental changes have dual trend of growth and fluctuation in Heilongjiang Province, and has a higher require to the fitting method. Through conducting the research on gray prediction method, regression analysis, BP neural network and genetic algorithm and so on, the combined prediction method based on BP neural network, the improved GM(1,1)model based on genetic algorithm, error correction model based on BP neural network and other new methods were proposed, and the development trend of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was predicted.
(6) The development of agricultural mechanization needs environment support, at the same time, the development of environment is promoted by agricultural mechanization. In order to explore the interaction internal laws between environment and agricultural mechanization, the relationship models between regional economy, agricultural economy and agricultural mechanization were determined; and then, according to the future development situation of the gross domestic production growth and the gross farming production, the demand of agricultural mechanization for economic growth was determined through the relationship models between the growth of economic and agricultural mechanization.
(7) According to the prediction results of the development goals of agricultural mechanization and the demands forecast of agricultural mechanization for economic development, and compared with advanced development level of agricultural mechanization in domestic and foreign, the final development objectives values of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were ascertained; using qualitative and quantitative methods, the feasibility of realizing development goals was analyzed in terms of the growth of economic strength, the requirements of financial investment for mechanization, the amount of government finance investment, the state subsidies policy, agricultural mechanization service organizations, the process of industrial and urban, the development of agricultural machinery industry and so on.
(8) The development emphases and countermeasures of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were proposed. Considering in favor of increasing the farmers’income, the higher investment returns, the relatively weak links in agricultural mechanization, protection environment and so on, and then combined with the large agricultural development strategy in Heilongjiang Province, the development emphases of agricultural mechanization were proposed; according to the development emphases of agricultural mechanization and the main factors affecting the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, the development countermeasures were proposed, which provided references for decision-making and programs-planning for the relevant government administrative departments.
黑龙江省是农业大省,是全国最大的农业主产区和全国最大的商品粮基地,其农业综合生产力水平和农业机械化水平处于全国前列,但与发达国家相比,整体水平仍处于农业机械化中级阶段。因此,积极推进黑龙江省农业机械化,是在新的历史条件下巩固和加强农业基础地位、实现农业现代化的必然要求。为了加速黑龙江省农业机械化进程,运用科学的农业机械化管理理论与技术在实际农业生产中的需求越来越迫切,成为影响农业机械化作用发挥的重要因素,也直接影响着农业机械运用的经济效益和社会效益。
在新形势下运用系统工程方法、计算机技术等现代数据处理方法加强农业机械化管理领域中定量分析方法的研究,科学、合理地解决农业机械化管理工作中遇到的各种问题,并促进农业机械化管理决策现代化、科学化是非常重要和必要的。本文对黑龙江省农业机械化发展问题进行了系统的研究,为科学、准确的把握农业机械化发展水平,影响农业机械化发展的主要因素,农业机械化的未来发展态势、目标,提出促进农业机械化发展的对策措施,促进农业机械化又好又快发展,加强农业基础地位,实现农业机械化与经济协调发展,繁荣农村经济,具有极其重要的意义。本文主要研究工作如下:
(1)为了能深入系统的研究黑龙江省农业机械化发展情况,根据黑龙江省农业机械化发展的历史数据资料,结合农机管理局实地调查情况,对黑龙江省农业机械化的发展历程、基本现状、发展的有利条件、存在的主要问题等进行分析。
(2)为科学的评价农业机械化发展水平,在分析比较现有农业机械化发展水平评价方法的研究成果基础上,结合黑龙江省实际情况,针对种植业对灌溉和植保要求较高,及原有的评价指标体系只能体现农机总量的变化,没有考虑农机的配套情况,农机人员的评价只能体现人员素质不能体现人员数量变化的情况,对黑龙江省农业机械化发展水平评价指标体系进行了改进研究。
(3)应用专家调查法和查阅文献的方法确定了各个评价指标的标准值和权重。用综合评价法测算2001~2008年黑龙江省农业机械化发展水平,利用测算结果分析黑龙江省农业机械化发展水平的发展变化及阻碍农业机械化发展的原因。利用2008年统计数据,对黑龙江省各个地区农业机械化发展水平进行评价,并对评价结果进行分析和地区比较,为分地区指导黑龙江省农业机械化发展提供科学依据。
(4)对黑龙江省农业机械化发展环境进行辨识和展望。第一,对农业机械化发展环境因素进行辨识;第二,选择影响农业机械化发展的社会与经济环境因素、农业生产资源因素、农机装备及技术因素共3类22个因素,依据黑龙江省2001~2008年的有关数据,建立灰色综合关联度分析模型,确定黑龙江省农业机械化发展的主要影响因素;第三,利用定性和定量相结合的分析方法对与黑龙江省农业机械化发展密切相关的一些环境因素进行预测和展望;第四,对农业机械化未来发展环境进行综合分析。
(5)鉴于黑龙江省农业机械化的发展态势有明显的非线性特性,其发展变化具有增长性和波动性,对于拟合方法要求较高。通过对灰色预测法、回归预测法、BP神经网络预测法及遗传算法等进行分析研究,提出了对黑龙江省农业机械化发展态势进行预测的基于BP神经网络的组合预测方法、基于遗传算法的改进GM(1,1)模型、基于BP神经网络的误差修正模型等新方法,并对黑龙江省农业机械化发展态势进行了预测。
(6)农业机械化发展需要环境支撑,同时农业机械化发展对环境也有促进作用。为了探求农业机械化和发展环境之间相互作用的内在规律,确定对农业机械化发展影响最直接、最强烈的地区经济、农业经济与农业机械化之间的关系模型;然后,根据黑龙江省地区经济总产值和农业总产值未来发展情况,通过经济增长与农业机械化增长之间的关系来确定经济增长对农业机械化的需求。
(7)根据农业机械化发展目标预测结果和经济发展对农业机械化需求预测,并与国内外农业机械化发展的先进水平相比较,综合考虑最终确定出黑龙江省农业机械化的具体发展目标值;运用定性和定量相结合的方法,从黑龙江省经济实力增长,机械化发展对每年对财政投入需要量,政府每年可以对农机发展投入的资金量,国家补贴政策,农机服务组织,工业化和城市化进程,农机工业发展等方面对发展目标的实现进行可行性分析。
(8)提出黑龙江省农业机械化发展重点及对策措施。考虑有利于增加农民的收入,有较高的投资效益,发展农业机械化的相对薄弱环节及保护环境等,同时结合黑龙江省大农业发展战略,提出黑龙江省农业机械化发展重点;根据黑龙江省农业机械化发展重点及影响农业机械化发展主要因素提出促进农业机械化发展的对策,为政府有关管理部门科学决策和制定发展规划提供参考。
In recent years, as the process of global economic integration accelerating,how to solve the issues of agriculture, farmers and rural area become the concern focus for the party and state, the content of seven central No.1 document on agriculture mechanization is increasing and richer from 2004 to 2010, the status and role of agricultural mechanization in "three rural" is increasingly strengthened.
Heilongjiang Province is a major agriculture province, which is the largest major agricultural production region and China's largest commodity grain base, the level of agricultural comprehensive productivity and mechanization are in the forefront of the country, but compared with developed countries, the overall level is still at the intermediate stage of agricultural mechanization. Therefore, actively promoting agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province is a necessary requirement to consolidate and strengthen agriculture foundation status, and to achieve agricultural modernization in the new historical conditions. In order to speed up the process of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, the demands of using scientific management theory and technology of agricultural mechanization in actual agricultural production is becoming more and more pressing, which not only plays an important factor in agricultural mechanization development, but also directly affects economic efficiency and social benefits using agricultural machinery.
Therefore, in the new situation, it is very important and necessary to use system engineering, computer technology and other modern data processing methods to enhance the research on quantitative analysis method for agricultural mechanization management, to scientifically and reasonably solute problems encountered in agricultural mechanization management, and to promote decision-making modernization and scientific in agriculture mechanization management. In this paper, the development of agricultural mechanization was systematic studied in Heilongjiang Province, which has extremely important significant for scientific and accurate grasping the development level of agricultural mechanization,the main influence factors, the future development trends and development goals of agricultural mechanization, putting forward the countermeasures, promoting the sound and rapid development of agricultural mechanization, strengthening foundation state of agriculture, achieving coordinated development of economic and prosperity in the rural economy. Major research works are as follows:
(1) In order to thoroughly and systematically study the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, according to the historical development data of agricultural mechanization, combined with field investigated conditions by agricultural machinery authority in Heilongjiang Province, the development process, the basic situation, the favorable condition, and the main problems of agricultural mechanization were analyzed.
(2) In order to scientific evaluate the development level of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, On the basis of analyzing the existence research finding of agricultural mechanization and taking into consideration the actual development situation in Heilongjiang province, against to the high request of farming to irrigation and plant protection, the original evaluation indicators of comprehensive protection ability of agricultural mechanization can only reflect the total changes of agricultural machinery,but can’t reflect the match conditions of agricultural machinery, the evaluation of agricultural machinery employees can only reflect the quality of personnel, but can’t reflect the number changes of personnel, the improved evaluation index system of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was researched.
(3) Standard values and weights of various indexes were determined by expert investigation method and referring to literature. The development level of agricultural mechanization was measured by comprehensive assessment method from 2001 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, and then the change of the development level of agricultural mechanization and the reasons of hampering agricultural mechanization were analyzed in Heilongjiang Province. The development level of agricultural mechanization was evaluated using statistics data in 2008 in various regions of Heilongjiang Province, and the evaluation results were analyzed and compared, which provided a scientific basis for guiding the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province.
(4) To identify and prospect the development environment of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province.First, the development environment of agricultural mechanization was identified;second, Social and economic environment factors, agricultural production resource factors, agricultural equipment and technical factors influencing the development of agricultural mechanization were selected. Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province, grey comprehensive correlation analysis model was established, the main factors influencing the development of agricultural mechanization were determined in Heilongjiang Province;third, by the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, some environmental factors closely related to the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were predicted and prospected;fourth, the future development environment of agricultural mechanization was analyzed.
(5) In view of the development of agricultural mechanization has complicated non-linear characteristics, whose developmental changes have dual trend of growth and fluctuation in Heilongjiang Province, and has a higher require to the fitting method. Through conducting the research on gray prediction method, regression analysis, BP neural network and genetic algorithm and so on, the combined prediction method based on BP neural network, the improved GM(1,1)model based on genetic algorithm, error correction model based on BP neural network and other new methods were proposed, and the development trend of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province was predicted.
(6) The development of agricultural mechanization needs environment support, at the same time, the development of environment is promoted by agricultural mechanization. In order to explore the interaction internal laws between environment and agricultural mechanization, the relationship models between regional economy, agricultural economy and agricultural mechanization were determined; and then, according to the future development situation of the gross domestic production growth and the gross farming production, the demand of agricultural mechanization for economic growth was determined through the relationship models between the growth of economic and agricultural mechanization.
(7) According to the prediction results of the development goals of agricultural mechanization and the demands forecast of agricultural mechanization for economic development, and compared with advanced development level of agricultural mechanization in domestic and foreign, the final development objectives values of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were ascertained; using qualitative and quantitative methods, the feasibility of realizing development goals was analyzed in terms of the growth of economic strength, the requirements of financial investment for mechanization, the amount of government finance investment, the state subsidies policy, agricultural mechanization service organizations, the process of industrial and urban, the development of agricultural machinery industry and so on.
(8) The development emphases and countermeasures of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province were proposed. Considering in favor of increasing the farmers’income, the higher investment returns, the relatively weak links in agricultural mechanization, protection environment and so on, and then combined with the large agricultural development strategy in Heilongjiang Province, the development emphases of agricultural mechanization were proposed; according to the development emphases of agricultural mechanization and the main factors affecting the development of agricultural mechanization in Heilongjiang Province, the development countermeasures were proposed, which provided references for decision-making and programs-planning for the relevant government administrative departments.
引文
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