煤层气井产量变化规律及产能预测
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摘要
本文在调研大量相关文献基础上,分析了煤层气的赋存规律、解吸规律和渗流特征。通过对韩城和晋城两个矿区的实际资料分析认为,由于两个矿区的地质条件不同,所以呈现出不同的生产特征。韩城矿区煤层气井的生产特征表现为:产水量大,排水期长;单井产量差别大;提液产气;稳产时间长;产量波动大;低产期持续时间长;峰值期不明显。晋城矿区煤层气井的生产特征表现为:排水量达到峰值后,就开始产气;不同井稳产期持续时间差异大;递减期持续时间长,递减平缓,大部分产量是在递减期获得;二次措施后增产效果明显,并延长了油井生产寿命。根据煤层气井产量递减规律分析结果,研究区大部分井表现为指数递减,个别井表现为调和递减和双曲线递减,而且不同井的递减率差异比较大。结合实际数据分析了影响煤层气井的各个因素,包括煤储层厚度、煤储层物性、水文地质条件、多层合采、层间干扰和排采技术等。
根据实际生产井资料,建立了中国煤层气井生产模式。从解吸、渗流平衡的机理出发,建立了合理地层压力水平的模型,优化出了合理的地层压力,分析了峰值产量形成的条件。
依据线性回归方法、翁氏模型、灰色系统以及月产累产之比递减分析法对实际生产井进行了产量预测。结果表明线性回归方法、翁氏模型预测法、灰色系统预测法和月产累产之比递减分析法的预测数据与实际生产数据相关性较好,各种方法所得的平均误差率分别为3.65%、10.8%、1.39%、和9.108%,不同方法适合于不同生产阶段的井。
By analysising the actual data of Hancheng and Jincheng,because of different geological conditions of the two mines,there are different production characteristics in the two mines.The characteristics of CBM wells in Hancheng are producing a large amount of water and long drainage.Per well production is different.The stable time is long,also is low yield time.The peak time is not clear. The characteristics of CBM wells in Hancheng are gas producting after drainage peak. The duration of stable time of different wells are different. The decline time is long,and decreasing is flat. Most of the output is in the reduced period.Yield increased after secondary measures,and productive life of CBM wells are extend. Production decline law of CBM wells are stressly analysed.Most wells are exponential decline,a few wells are harmonic decline and hyperbolic decline. Decline rate of different wells are very different There are different production characteristics in different wells,which are controlled by geologic factor and drainage techniques.
With dynamic analysis of CBM well,three production models are classified. Based on the equilibrium mechanism of desorption and flow, a reasonable level of formation pressure model is established,which optimizes reasonable formation pressure and analysics of the formation conditions of peak production.
Linear regression、Weng's model、gray system GM(1,1) model and monthly production/cumulative production are respectively used to calculate the productivity rate of CBM wells. It turns out that forecast data by Linear regression、Weng's model prediction、gray system GM(1,1) Model and monthly production/cumulative production is well interrelated to actual production data. The average error rate of every model are 3.65%、10.8%、1.39% and 9.108%. Different methods are fit different stages of production wells.
根据实际生产井资料,建立了中国煤层气井生产模式。从解吸、渗流平衡的机理出发,建立了合理地层压力水平的模型,优化出了合理的地层压力,分析了峰值产量形成的条件。
依据线性回归方法、翁氏模型、灰色系统以及月产累产之比递减分析法对实际生产井进行了产量预测。结果表明线性回归方法、翁氏模型预测法、灰色系统预测法和月产累产之比递减分析法的预测数据与实际生产数据相关性较好,各种方法所得的平均误差率分别为3.65%、10.8%、1.39%、和9.108%,不同方法适合于不同生产阶段的井。
By analysising the actual data of Hancheng and Jincheng,because of different geological conditions of the two mines,there are different production characteristics in the two mines.The characteristics of CBM wells in Hancheng are producing a large amount of water and long drainage.Per well production is different.The stable time is long,also is low yield time.The peak time is not clear. The characteristics of CBM wells in Hancheng are gas producting after drainage peak. The duration of stable time of different wells are different. The decline time is long,and decreasing is flat. Most of the output is in the reduced period.Yield increased after secondary measures,and productive life of CBM wells are extend. Production decline law of CBM wells are stressly analysed.Most wells are exponential decline,a few wells are harmonic decline and hyperbolic decline. Decline rate of different wells are very different There are different production characteristics in different wells,which are controlled by geologic factor and drainage techniques.
With dynamic analysis of CBM well,three production models are classified. Based on the equilibrium mechanism of desorption and flow, a reasonable level of formation pressure model is established,which optimizes reasonable formation pressure and analysics of the formation conditions of peak production.
Linear regression、Weng's model、gray system GM(1,1) model and monthly production/cumulative production are respectively used to calculate the productivity rate of CBM wells. It turns out that forecast data by Linear regression、Weng's model prediction、gray system GM(1,1) Model and monthly production/cumulative production is well interrelated to actual production data. The average error rate of every model are 3.65%、10.8%、1.39% and 9.108%. Different methods are fit different stages of production wells.
引文
1康园园,邵先杰,石磊,等.煤层气开发技术综述[J].中国煤炭地质, 2010,22(增刊), 43-46
2雷群,李景明,赵庆波.煤层气勘探开发理论与实践[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 2007: 16-17
3 Pratt T J, Mavor M J, Debruyn R P. Coal Gas Resource and production Potential of Subbituminous Coal in the Powder Rirver Basin [J]. International coalbed methane symposium, 1999, 23-34
4 Gay R, Harris I. Coalbed Methane and Coal Geology. The Geological Society, London, 1996,1-338
5 Schroeder K, Ozemir E, Morsi B I. Sequestration of Caobon Dioxide in Coal Seam [J]. Energy&Environment Research, 2002, 2: 54-63
6 Harpalani S, Chen G. Gas Slippage and Matrix Shrinkage Effects on Coal Permeability[A]. In: Proceedings of the 1993 International Coalbed Methane Symposium[C]. Tuscaloosa, AL, USA: University of Alabana, 1993: 287-294
7 Harpalani S, Schraufnagel R A. Shrinkage of Coal Matrix with Release of Gas and Its Impact on Permeability of Coal[J]. Fuel, 1991, 69(5): 551-556
8 G.B.C. Young. Computer Modeling and Simulation of Coalbed Methane Resources[J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 1998, 35:369–379
9 VaziriH H, Xiao Y, Islam R,et.al. Numerical Modeling of Seepageinduced Sand Production in Oil and Gas Reservoirs[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2002, 36(1):71-86
10钱凯,赵庆波,汪泽成.煤层甲烷气勘探开发理论与实验测试技术[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 1997
11 Gay R, Harris I. Coalbed Methane and Coal Geology[M]. The Geological Society, London, 1996,1-338
12 R.M. Bustin, C.R. Clarkson. Geological Controls on Coalbed Methane Reservoir Capacity and Gas Content[J]. 1998, 38:3–26
13 Gentry R W. Decline Curve Analysis[J]. JPT, 1972, 24(1): 38～41
14 Andrew R, Scott A R. Hydrogeologic Factors Affecting Gas Content Distribution in Coal Beds[J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2002,43(5): 43～46
15 Kaiser W R, Scott A R. Geological and Hydrological Controls on the Producibility of Coalbed Methane[J]. Journal of Society of London, 1994, 34(4): 29～34
16崔凯华,郑洪涛主编.煤层气开采[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 2009: 1-140
17 Long D R, Davis M J. A New Approach to the Hyperbolic Curve[J]. JPT, 1988, 40(7): 909～912
18 Chiclana F, Herrera F, Herreravidema E. Integrating Three Represent Models in Fuzzy Multipurpose Decision Making Based on Fuzzy Preference Relations[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1998, 97:33-48
19 Blasingame T A, McCray T L, Lee W J. Decline Curve Analysis for Variable Pressure Drop/Variable Flowrate Systems[C]. SPE 21513, 1991
20 Blasingame T A, Johnston J L, Lee W J. Type Curve Analysis Using the Pressure Integral Method[C].SPE 18799, 1989
21 Barr, K. A Guideline to Optimize Drilling Fluids for Coalbed Methane Reservoirs [J]. SPE Rocky Mountain Petroleum Technology Conference, 2009, 213-220
22 Mattar L , McNeil R. The Flowing Gas Material Balance[J]. JCPT, 1998, 37(2):37-42
23吴世跃,赵文.含吸附煤层气煤的有效应力分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报, 2005, 24(10): 1674-1678
24王乐平,张国华,王现强.煤层气的储层特征及其对煤层气解吸的影响[J].煤炭技术, 2009, 28(1): 156-158
25汪伟英,汪亚蓉.煤层气储层渗透率特征研究[J].石油天然气学报(江汉石油学院学报), 2009, 31(6): 127-129
26 R.M. Bustin, C.R. Clarkson. Geological Controls on Coalbed Methane Reservoir Capacity and Gas Content[J]. 1998, 38:3–26
27陈润,秦勇,杨兆彪等.煤层气吸附及其地质意义[J].煤炭科学技术, 2009, 37(8): 103-107
28陈春琳,林大杨.等温吸附曲线方法在煤层气可采资源量估算中的应用[J].中国矿业大学学报, 2005, 34(5): 679-682
29 A.D. Alexeev, T.A. Vasylenko, E.V. Ul’yanova. Phase States of Methane in Fossil Coals[J]. Solid State Communications, 2004, 130:669–673
30王乐平,张国华,王现强.煤层气的储层特征及其对煤层气解吸的影响[J].煤炭技术, 2009, 28(1): 156-158
31杜志敏,付玉,伍勇.低渗透煤层气产能影响因素评价[J].石油与天然气地质, 2007, 28(4): 516-519
32许广明,武强,张燕君.非平衡吸附模型在煤层气数值模拟中的应用[J].煤炭学报, 2003, 28(4): 380-384
33 Gentry R W. Decline Curve Analysis[J]. JPT, 1972, 24(1): 38-41
34张冬丽,王新海.煤层气降压开采机理研究[J].江汉石油学院学报, 2004, 26(3): 124-126
35田智威.煤层气渗流理论及其研究进展[J].地质科技情报, 2010, 29(1): 61-65
36骆祖江,付延玲,王增海.煤层气解吸时间的确定[J].煤田地质与勘探, 1999, 4(5): 28-29
37王一兵,田文广,李五忠,等.中国煤层气选区评价标准探讨[J].地质通报, 2006, 25(9~10): 1104-1107
38郑重.韩城矿区煤的煤岩特征及煤层气生储因素分析[J].煤田地质与勘探, 2004, 23(3): 5-10
39王秀兰,要慧芳.樊庄区块煤层气富集高产分区[J].煤炭工程, 2010, 1(1): 80-82.
40张培河.煤层气成藏条件分析方法[J].中国煤层气, 2008, 5(3): 12-16
41吴晓东,师俊峰,席长丰.煤层渗透率敏感性及其对煤层气开发效果的影响[J].煤层气工业, 2008, 28(7): 27-29
42 Agarwal R G, Gardner D C, Kleinsteiber S W,et.al. Analyzing Well Production Data Using Combined Type Curve and Decline Curve Concepts[C]. SPE 57916, 1998
43李小彦,司胜利.我国煤储层煤层气解吸特征[J].煤田地质与勘探, 2004, 32(3): 27-29
44张宝生,彭贤强,罗东坤.中国煤层气目标区综合评价与优选研究[J].资源科学, 2009, 31(4): 681-685
45张继东,盛江庆,刘文旗,等.煤层气井生产特征及影响因素[J].天然气工业, 2004, 24(12): 38-40
46杨秀春,李明宅.煤层气排采动态参数及其相互关系[J].煤田地质与勘探, 2008, 36(2): 19-27
47杨焦生,王一兵,王宪花.煤层气井井底流压分析及计算[J].天然气工业, 2010, 30(2): 66-68
48何俊,陈小凡,乐平,等.线性回归方法在油气产量递减分析中的应用[J].岩性油气藏, 2009, 21(2): 103-105
49李文明,张明文,熊兰琼.利用翁(Weng)旋回预测油气藏产量[J].钻采工艺, 2001, (6): 40
50康园园,邵先杰,石磊,等.煤层气开发目标区精选体系与方法研究[J].岩性油气藏, 2011, 23(1): 62-66
51李群.灰色预测方法[J].齐鲁珠坛, 1997, (4):22–23
52邓英尔,黄润秋,郭大浩,等.煤层气产量的影响因素及不稳定渗流产量预测[J]. 天然气工业, 2005, 25(1): 117-119
2雷群,李景明,赵庆波.煤层气勘探开发理论与实践[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 2007: 16-17
3 Pratt T J, Mavor M J, Debruyn R P. Coal Gas Resource and production Potential of Subbituminous Coal in the Powder Rirver Basin [J]. International coalbed methane symposium, 1999, 23-34
4 Gay R, Harris I. Coalbed Methane and Coal Geology. The Geological Society, London, 1996,1-338
5 Schroeder K, Ozemir E, Morsi B I. Sequestration of Caobon Dioxide in Coal Seam [J]. Energy&Environment Research, 2002, 2: 54-63
6 Harpalani S, Chen G. Gas Slippage and Matrix Shrinkage Effects on Coal Permeability[A]. In: Proceedings of the 1993 International Coalbed Methane Symposium[C]. Tuscaloosa, AL, USA: University of Alabana, 1993: 287-294
7 Harpalani S, Schraufnagel R A. Shrinkage of Coal Matrix with Release of Gas and Its Impact on Permeability of Coal[J]. Fuel, 1991, 69(5): 551-556
8 G.B.C. Young. Computer Modeling and Simulation of Coalbed Methane Resources[J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 1998, 35:369–379
9 VaziriH H, Xiao Y, Islam R,et.al. Numerical Modeling of Seepageinduced Sand Production in Oil and Gas Reservoirs[J]. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2002, 36(1):71-86
10钱凯,赵庆波,汪泽成.煤层甲烷气勘探开发理论与实验测试技术[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 1997
11 Gay R, Harris I. Coalbed Methane and Coal Geology[M]. The Geological Society, London, 1996,1-338
12 R.M. Bustin, C.R. Clarkson. Geological Controls on Coalbed Methane Reservoir Capacity and Gas Content[J]. 1998, 38:3–26
13 Gentry R W. Decline Curve Analysis[J]. JPT, 1972, 24(1): 38～41
14 Andrew R, Scott A R. Hydrogeologic Factors Affecting Gas Content Distribution in Coal Beds[J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2002,43(5): 43～46
15 Kaiser W R, Scott A R. Geological and Hydrological Controls on the Producibility of Coalbed Methane[J]. Journal of Society of London, 1994, 34(4): 29～34
16崔凯华,郑洪涛主编.煤层气开采[M].北京:石油工业出版社, 2009: 1-140
17 Long D R, Davis M J. A New Approach to the Hyperbolic Curve[J]. JPT, 1988, 40(7): 909～912
18 Chiclana F, Herrera F, Herreravidema E. Integrating Three Represent Models in Fuzzy Multipurpose Decision Making Based on Fuzzy Preference Relations[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1998, 97:33-48
19 Blasingame T A, McCray T L, Lee W J. Decline Curve Analysis for Variable Pressure Drop/Variable Flowrate Systems[C]. SPE 21513, 1991
20 Blasingame T A, Johnston J L, Lee W J. Type Curve Analysis Using the Pressure Integral Method[C].SPE 18799, 1989
21 Barr, K. A Guideline to Optimize Drilling Fluids for Coalbed Methane Reservoirs [J]. SPE Rocky Mountain Petroleum Technology Conference, 2009, 213-220
22 Mattar L , McNeil R. The Flowing Gas Material Balance[J]. JCPT, 1998, 37(2):37-42
23吴世跃,赵文.含吸附煤层气煤的有效应力分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报, 2005, 24(10): 1674-1678
24王乐平,张国华,王现强.煤层气的储层特征及其对煤层气解吸的影响[J].煤炭技术, 2009, 28(1): 156-158
25汪伟英,汪亚蓉.煤层气储层渗透率特征研究[J].石油天然气学报(江汉石油学院学报), 2009, 31(6): 127-129
26 R.M. Bustin, C.R. Clarkson. Geological Controls on Coalbed Methane Reservoir Capacity and Gas Content[J]. 1998, 38:3–26
27陈润,秦勇,杨兆彪等.煤层气吸附及其地质意义[J].煤炭科学技术, 2009, 37(8): 103-107
28陈春琳,林大杨.等温吸附曲线方法在煤层气可采资源量估算中的应用[J].中国矿业大学学报, 2005, 34(5): 679-682
29 A.D. Alexeev, T.A. Vasylenko, E.V. Ul’yanova. Phase States of Methane in Fossil Coals[J]. Solid State Communications, 2004, 130:669–673
30王乐平,张国华,王现强.煤层气的储层特征及其对煤层气解吸的影响[J].煤炭技术, 2009, 28(1): 156-158
31杜志敏,付玉,伍勇.低渗透煤层气产能影响因素评价[J].石油与天然气地质, 2007, 28(4): 516-519
32许广明,武强,张燕君.非平衡吸附模型在煤层气数值模拟中的应用[J].煤炭学报, 2003, 28(4): 380-384
33 Gentry R W. Decline Curve Analysis[J]. JPT, 1972, 24(1): 38-41
34张冬丽,王新海.煤层气降压开采机理研究[J].江汉石油学院学报, 2004, 26(3): 124-126
35田智威.煤层气渗流理论及其研究进展[J].地质科技情报, 2010, 29(1): 61-65
36骆祖江,付延玲,王增海.煤层气解吸时间的确定[J].煤田地质与勘探, 1999, 4(5): 28-29
37王一兵,田文广,李五忠,等.中国煤层气选区评价标准探讨[J].地质通报, 2006, 25(9~10): 1104-1107
38郑重.韩城矿区煤的煤岩特征及煤层气生储因素分析[J].煤田地质与勘探, 2004, 23(3): 5-10
39王秀兰,要慧芳.樊庄区块煤层气富集高产分区[J].煤炭工程, 2010, 1(1): 80-82.
40张培河.煤层气成藏条件分析方法[J].中国煤层气, 2008, 5(3): 12-16
41吴晓东,师俊峰,席长丰.煤层渗透率敏感性及其对煤层气开发效果的影响[J].煤层气工业, 2008, 28(7): 27-29
42 Agarwal R G, Gardner D C, Kleinsteiber S W,et.al. Analyzing Well Production Data Using Combined Type Curve and Decline Curve Concepts[C]. SPE 57916, 1998
43李小彦,司胜利.我国煤储层煤层气解吸特征[J].煤田地质与勘探, 2004, 32(3): 27-29
44张宝生,彭贤强,罗东坤.中国煤层气目标区综合评价与优选研究[J].资源科学, 2009, 31(4): 681-685
45张继东,盛江庆,刘文旗,等.煤层气井生产特征及影响因素[J].天然气工业, 2004, 24(12): 38-40
46杨秀春,李明宅.煤层气排采动态参数及其相互关系[J].煤田地质与勘探, 2008, 36(2): 19-27
47杨焦生,王一兵,王宪花.煤层气井井底流压分析及计算[J].天然气工业, 2010, 30(2): 66-68
48何俊,陈小凡,乐平,等.线性回归方法在油气产量递减分析中的应用[J].岩性油气藏, 2009, 21(2): 103-105
49李文明,张明文,熊兰琼.利用翁(Weng)旋回预测油气藏产量[J].钻采工艺, 2001, (6): 40
50康园园,邵先杰,石磊,等.煤层气开发目标区精选体系与方法研究[J].岩性油气藏, 2011, 23(1): 62-66
51李群.灰色预测方法[J].齐鲁珠坛, 1997, (4):22–23
52邓英尔,黄润秋,郭大浩,等.煤层气产量的影响因素及不稳定渗流产量预测[J]. 天然气工业, 2005, 25(1): 117-119