人口老龄化趋势下的中国城镇养老保险制度研究
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摘要
养老保险制度是大多数国家老年保障的基本形式,它为老年人退休后的基本生活提供了经济保障。在世界人口老龄化的趋势下,老年人口抚养比不断提高,养老保险的重要性日益凸显,而养老保险制度所受到的挑战也越来越严峻。中国的人口老龄化与发达国家相比具有速度更快并且超前于经济发展的特点,这给正处于建设初期的中国城镇养老保险制度带来严峻挑战。因此,对该领域的研究就显得迫切而重要了。
本文的主题是研究人口老龄化过程和趋势,人口老龄化对养老保险制度的影响,以及养老保险制度的应对措施,侧重于研究当前和未来中国城镇养老保险制度应对人口老龄化应采取的对策。
在方法上本文尝试运用历史的方法,比较分析法研究了人口老龄化的进程和养老保险制度的发展历程,还采用理论与实证相结合的方法分析了我国城镇养老保险制度所面临的问题,并提出相应的政策建议。
本文对人口老龄化趋势下的中国城镇养老保险制度的研究主要从五个方面展开:
第一,人口老龄化是世界人口增长不可逆转的趋势,是人口再生产模式发生转变的结果。这一转变过程表现为人口死亡率和出生率由高水平逐渐下降到低水平,起初,人口死亡率和出生率都很高,随后出生率下降,人口自然增长率开始时加速,随后减慢,人口向低出生率、低死亡率、寿命延长方向发展。人口老龄化在世界范围内成为不可逆转的趋势,它将给储蓄、劳动力供给和技术进步带来不利影响。
第二,中国人口老龄化的成因和特点。中国于本世纪初进入老龄化社会,并将于本世纪中叶处于人口老龄化的高峰期。有两方面因素促使中国人口迅速老龄化,一方面是中国政府于上世纪70年代开始实行的严格的计划生育政策,另一方面是中国人口出生率随着经济增长而出现的自然下降,这与世界人口老龄化趋势是一致的。中国人口老龄化具有其自身特点,即与发达国家和新兴工业国家人口老龄化相比,中国人口老龄化速度快,老龄化超前于经济发展,城乡之间、沿海与内陆地区之间老龄化进程不平衡。
第三,西方国家养老保险制度的发展进程。现代养老保险制度产生于工业化时期的西欧。考察西方国家养老保险制度的产生、发展和改革历程,结果表明经济发展水平和人口年龄结构是影响养老保险制度的两个重要的外部因素。比较养老保险的主要模式和代表性国家养老保险制度改革,有助于我们理解养老保险制度发展的一些内在规律。而认识这些外部因素和内在规律,对我国养老保险制度的构建具有重要的启示意义。
第四,中国城镇养老保险制度。本文对中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的确立过程进行了考察,在分析人口老龄化对城镇养老保险制度的直接影响和间接影响的基础上,从完善基本养老保险制度、建设多层次养老保障体系以及加大研发投入和人力资本投资的角度提出了应对人口老龄化的思路。
第五,当前中国城镇劳动力市场特点和养老保险制度的完善。中国城镇劳动参与率呈现出下降的态势,表明劳动力资源利用率在降低。在人口老龄化程度日益加深的情况下,探索充分利用劳动力资源的方式,并对就业人员提供养老保险,具有特别重要的意义。个体、私营企业和非正规部门逐渐成为吸纳劳动力的重要途径,而此类就业的养老保险参保率不高;农村剩余劳动力转移至城镇就业而形成农民工群体,其养老保险参保率也不高。养老保险制度需要根据这些就业者的特点进行调整和完善。
本文最后综合本研究的观点和论述,形成了结论。提出养老保险制度必须得到进一步的发展和完善;妥善解决养老保险的转轨成本问题是保证制度良性发展的前提;必须保持经济持续快速稳定发展,扩大就业,提高对现有劳动力资源的利用效率,在此基础上扩大养老保险制度的覆盖面;在长期中,加大研发投入和人力资本投资,以技术进步和劳动生产率的提高来抵消人口老龄化所带来的不利影响。
Old-age insurance system is the basic form to ensure the living standard of old-age people in most countries. In the process of global population ageing, old-age insurance becomes more and more important, and is confronted with much greater challenges. Compared with the developed countries, the population ageing in China has characteristics of speediness, and they bring serious troubles to China's old-age insurance system, which is in the initial construction stage. Therefore, it is necessary for us to make investigations in this field.
The theme of this dissertation is to discuss the process and tendency of population ageing, the impact of population ageing on old-age insurance system and the response measures the system should take. The dissertation focuses on the response measures that China's old-age insurance system should take in the process of population ageing at present and in the long-term future.
The historical and comparison methods are used to investigate the development of old-age insurance system. Meanwhile, the theoretic research and demonstration method are used to study the problems of China's urban old-age insurance system, and some suggestions are made on the corresponding politics that should be taken.
The research is organized on the following five aspects.
Firstly, as the result of population reproduction mode changing, population ageing is an irreversible tendency of demographic transition. It is a process of mortality rate and birthrate decline from high to low lever. Initially, two rates are both high, then, birthrate slows down, so that the natural population growth rate slows down, and demographic transition tends to be with low mortality rate, low birth rate and longevity, which makes population ageing become an irreversible tendency. The influence of population ageing on savings, labor force supply and technological advances will bring negative effects to the economic growth.
Secondly, the reasons and characteristics of population ageing in China. China turned to be ageing society in the beginning of this century, and will enter its most serious period in the middle of the century. The rapid population ageing is the result of two factors, one is Family Planning policy that Chinese government has adopted since the 1970s; the other is that China's population birthrate has been slowing down in accompany with the economic growth, which accords with global demographic transition tendency. However, China's population ageing has its own characteristics. Compared with developed and emerging industrial countries, the population ageing speed is faster, and imbalance between different regions.
Thirdly, the evolution of western old-age insurance system. Modern old-age insurance system came into being in the industrialization period in the Western Europe. Economic development and population age structure are two important external factors that greatly affect development of the system. The development of old-age insurance system has its own rules. Knowing the factors and rules is quite useful for us to construct China's old-ageing insurance system.
Fourthly, China's urban old-age insurance system. The process and framework of China's urban old-age insurance system reform are studied in this article. Based on the analysis of direct and indirect influences the population ageing have been brought to China's urban old-age insurance system,the policy sugestions are raised, which are the government should construct multi-layer old-age insurance system, enlarge R&D input and increase human capital investment to response the population ageing.
Finally, the characteristics of China's labor market and the perfecting of old-age insurance system. China's urban labor force participation rate is in a trend of declining, which shows that the utilization rate of labor force is falling.In the tendency of rapid population ageing, it is meaningful to find ways to making full use of labor force resources and provide the employees with old-age insurance. Employees in Private Enterprises, Sole Proprietors and informal enterprises,the peasant- workers are playing more and more important roles in the labor force market, however the old-age insurance participation rate of these employees is quite low, thus the system should be adjusted and improved according to the characteristics of these employees.
In conclusion, the old-age insurance system is in great need of further development. To solve the transition cost problem of the old-age insurance system is the prerequisite. Then, the government must keep rapid economic development, enlarge employment, enhance the use of labor force recourses, Based on the measures mentioned above, enlarge the coverage of the system. In the long period, R&D input and human capital investment should be increased in order to narrow negative influence caused by population ageing.
本文的主题是研究人口老龄化过程和趋势,人口老龄化对养老保险制度的影响,以及养老保险制度的应对措施,侧重于研究当前和未来中国城镇养老保险制度应对人口老龄化应采取的对策。
在方法上本文尝试运用历史的方法,比较分析法研究了人口老龄化的进程和养老保险制度的发展历程,还采用理论与实证相结合的方法分析了我国城镇养老保险制度所面临的问题,并提出相应的政策建议。
本文对人口老龄化趋势下的中国城镇养老保险制度的研究主要从五个方面展开:
第一,人口老龄化是世界人口增长不可逆转的趋势,是人口再生产模式发生转变的结果。这一转变过程表现为人口死亡率和出生率由高水平逐渐下降到低水平,起初,人口死亡率和出生率都很高,随后出生率下降,人口自然增长率开始时加速,随后减慢,人口向低出生率、低死亡率、寿命延长方向发展。人口老龄化在世界范围内成为不可逆转的趋势,它将给储蓄、劳动力供给和技术进步带来不利影响。
第二,中国人口老龄化的成因和特点。中国于本世纪初进入老龄化社会,并将于本世纪中叶处于人口老龄化的高峰期。有两方面因素促使中国人口迅速老龄化,一方面是中国政府于上世纪70年代开始实行的严格的计划生育政策,另一方面是中国人口出生率随着经济增长而出现的自然下降,这与世界人口老龄化趋势是一致的。中国人口老龄化具有其自身特点,即与发达国家和新兴工业国家人口老龄化相比,中国人口老龄化速度快,老龄化超前于经济发展,城乡之间、沿海与内陆地区之间老龄化进程不平衡。
第三,西方国家养老保险制度的发展进程。现代养老保险制度产生于工业化时期的西欧。考察西方国家养老保险制度的产生、发展和改革历程,结果表明经济发展水平和人口年龄结构是影响养老保险制度的两个重要的外部因素。比较养老保险的主要模式和代表性国家养老保险制度改革,有助于我们理解养老保险制度发展的一些内在规律。而认识这些外部因素和内在规律,对我国养老保险制度的构建具有重要的启示意义。
第四,中国城镇养老保险制度。本文对中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的确立过程进行了考察,在分析人口老龄化对城镇养老保险制度的直接影响和间接影响的基础上,从完善基本养老保险制度、建设多层次养老保障体系以及加大研发投入和人力资本投资的角度提出了应对人口老龄化的思路。
第五,当前中国城镇劳动力市场特点和养老保险制度的完善。中国城镇劳动参与率呈现出下降的态势,表明劳动力资源利用率在降低。在人口老龄化程度日益加深的情况下,探索充分利用劳动力资源的方式,并对就业人员提供养老保险,具有特别重要的意义。个体、私营企业和非正规部门逐渐成为吸纳劳动力的重要途径,而此类就业的养老保险参保率不高;农村剩余劳动力转移至城镇就业而形成农民工群体,其养老保险参保率也不高。养老保险制度需要根据这些就业者的特点进行调整和完善。
本文最后综合本研究的观点和论述,形成了结论。提出养老保险制度必须得到进一步的发展和完善;妥善解决养老保险的转轨成本问题是保证制度良性发展的前提;必须保持经济持续快速稳定发展,扩大就业,提高对现有劳动力资源的利用效率,在此基础上扩大养老保险制度的覆盖面;在长期中,加大研发投入和人力资本投资,以技术进步和劳动生产率的提高来抵消人口老龄化所带来的不利影响。
Old-age insurance system is the basic form to ensure the living standard of old-age people in most countries. In the process of global population ageing, old-age insurance becomes more and more important, and is confronted with much greater challenges. Compared with the developed countries, the population ageing in China has characteristics of speediness, and they bring serious troubles to China's old-age insurance system, which is in the initial construction stage. Therefore, it is necessary for us to make investigations in this field.
The theme of this dissertation is to discuss the process and tendency of population ageing, the impact of population ageing on old-age insurance system and the response measures the system should take. The dissertation focuses on the response measures that China's old-age insurance system should take in the process of population ageing at present and in the long-term future.
The historical and comparison methods are used to investigate the development of old-age insurance system. Meanwhile, the theoretic research and demonstration method are used to study the problems of China's urban old-age insurance system, and some suggestions are made on the corresponding politics that should be taken.
The research is organized on the following five aspects.
Firstly, as the result of population reproduction mode changing, population ageing is an irreversible tendency of demographic transition. It is a process of mortality rate and birthrate decline from high to low lever. Initially, two rates are both high, then, birthrate slows down, so that the natural population growth rate slows down, and demographic transition tends to be with low mortality rate, low birth rate and longevity, which makes population ageing become an irreversible tendency. The influence of population ageing on savings, labor force supply and technological advances will bring negative effects to the economic growth.
Secondly, the reasons and characteristics of population ageing in China. China turned to be ageing society in the beginning of this century, and will enter its most serious period in the middle of the century. The rapid population ageing is the result of two factors, one is Family Planning policy that Chinese government has adopted since the 1970s; the other is that China's population birthrate has been slowing down in accompany with the economic growth, which accords with global demographic transition tendency. However, China's population ageing has its own characteristics. Compared with developed and emerging industrial countries, the population ageing speed is faster, and imbalance between different regions.
Thirdly, the evolution of western old-age insurance system. Modern old-age insurance system came into being in the industrialization period in the Western Europe. Economic development and population age structure are two important external factors that greatly affect development of the system. The development of old-age insurance system has its own rules. Knowing the factors and rules is quite useful for us to construct China's old-ageing insurance system.
Fourthly, China's urban old-age insurance system. The process and framework of China's urban old-age insurance system reform are studied in this article. Based on the analysis of direct and indirect influences the population ageing have been brought to China's urban old-age insurance system,the policy sugestions are raised, which are the government should construct multi-layer old-age insurance system, enlarge R&D input and increase human capital investment to response the population ageing.
Finally, the characteristics of China's labor market and the perfecting of old-age insurance system. China's urban labor force participation rate is in a trend of declining, which shows that the utilization rate of labor force is falling.In the tendency of rapid population ageing, it is meaningful to find ways to making full use of labor force resources and provide the employees with old-age insurance. Employees in Private Enterprises, Sole Proprietors and informal enterprises,the peasant- workers are playing more and more important roles in the labor force market, however the old-age insurance participation rate of these employees is quite low, thus the system should be adjusted and improved according to the characteristics of these employees.
In conclusion, the old-age insurance system is in great need of further development. To solve the transition cost problem of the old-age insurance system is the prerequisite. Then, the government must keep rapid economic development, enlarge employment, enhance the use of labor force recourses, Based on the measures mentioned above, enlarge the coverage of the system. In the long period, R&D input and human capital investment should be increased in order to narrow negative influence caused by population ageing.
引文
①出生率指在一定时期内(通常为一年)平均每千人所出生的人数的比率,一般用千分率表示。计算公式为:出生率=年出生人数/年平均人数×1000‰
②熊必俊,人口老龄化与可持续发展,北京:中国大百科全书出版社, 2002:17
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