基于协同视角的贸易投资一体化研究
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摘要
经济全球化、区域经济一体化使得越来越多的国家和地区参与到世界经济发展的洪流中,对外贸易与投资快速发展,相互配合,已成为推动国家或地区经济增长的主要动力,对各国经济发展的影响日益加深,其增长速度远超过世界产出增长率。美欧债务引发的国际金融危机,给各国经济发展带来了不同程度的冲击。世界各国在大力发展对外贸易的同时,越来越注重发挥对外直接投资的作用。
一直以来,对外贸易与投资的互动与融合是主流经济学家所关注的重要问题。自上世纪50年代起,国外学者对贸易与投资关系的研究,先后指出了不同条件下对外贸易与投资之间的替代、互补、不确定关系。
20世纪90年代以来,随着经济全球化的深入发展,贸易投资一体化发展加速,国内外学者从不同的视角对贸易投资一体化的理论渊源、内涵界定、形成动因、表现形式以及促进一体化发展的策略等方面进行了研究,取得了一些令人信服的结论。但总体来说,贸易投资一体化的研究仍处于百家争鸣的状态,对贸易投资一体化的机理研究与动态演进研究欠缺,贸易投资一体化的发展水平界定不明晰,贸易投资一体化的研究不足为本文的深入研究提供锲机与理论开拓空间。
本文在国内外研究基础上,综合运用国际贸易、国际投资、跨国公司理论、系统论、系统动力学和协同论,构建基于协同视角的贸易投资一体化分析框架,分析贸易投资一体化的行为主体和影响贸易投资一体化的关键要素,探索贸易投资一体化的形成机理,提出对外贸易与投资系统协同度测算贸易投资一体化的发展水平。一来可以丰富贸易投资一体化的理论体系,二来探索中国加快经济发展方式转变,赢得国际竞争新优势的路径。本文主要分为五大部分：
第一部分是研究的理论基础。从国际贸易、国际投资与跨国公司理论以及贸易投资一体化理论等方面,系统论述了贸易投资一体化研究的理论渊源,同时梳理了系统论、系统动力学以及协同论的基本思想与相关方法,为理论研究提供思维框架和方法工具。
第二部分是基于协同视角构建贸易投资一体化的分析框架,探索贸易投资-体化机理。在界定贸易投资一体化及其系统的内涵与特征基础上,基于协同视角,分析贸易投资一体化系统的行为主体、关键要素和系统结构,研究贸易投资一体化系统的动态演进及运行机制,以探索贸易投资一体化机理。提出对外贸易与投资系统协同度概念,构建协同度模型,测算贸易投资一体化的发展水平。
第三部分是贸易投资一体化动态演进检验。构建对外贸易与投资的竞争与合作协同演化模型,揭示对外贸易与投资竞争协同演化和合作协同演化关系。从系统的微观结构出发构建贸易投资一体化仿真模型,对中国对外贸易与投资发展进行仿真模拟。
第四部分是中国贸易投资一体化发展检验。从规模、结构、主体、政策、阶段和区位六个方面定性研究中国的对外贸易与投资的协同状况。构建实证模型定量检验中国贸易投资一体化的发展状况,发现对外贸易与投资之间在长期具有协整关系,对外贸易是投资增长的格兰杰原因,但是投资却不是对外贸易增长的格兰杰原因。计算中国对外贸易与投资系统协同度,发现中国贸易投资一体化处于初级阶段。
第五部分是政策建议。针对以往较少从对外贸易与投资协同的整体框架进行系统性政策设计的不足,基于协同的视角,从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出促进对外贸易与投资协同推进贸易投资一体化的政策建议。
本文的主要创新点：(1)基于协同视角揭示了贸易投资一体化形成机理；(2)对贸易投资一体化系统动态演进分析和仿真模拟；(3)实证分析中国贸易投资一体化的发展现状；(4)定义对外贸易与投资系统协同度,定量说明贸易投资一体化发展水平。
Economic globalization and regional integration make more and more countries and regions participate in the rivers of the world economic development, foreign trade and foreign direct investment have become the main power to promote the growth of national or regional economy, the impact is becoming more and more deeply. Its growth rate of output growth is far more than the world. The international financial crisis which is caused by Us and European debt has brought different degree of impact to the economic development of all countries. Countries in the world pay more and more attention to the role of outside foreign direct investment at the same time of developing foreign trade.
Trade and investment relationship and their integration development is the focus of mainstream economists all the time. Since the1950s, foreign scholars reveal the alternative and complementary and uncertainty and fusion relation between foreign trade and investment through the study of a country (or area) of foreign trade and investment.
Since the1990's, the development of trade and investment integration accelerates with the in-depth development of economic globalization, domestic and foreign scholars study trade and investment integration theory origin, connotation definition, development, motivation, forms and strategies to promote the development of integration and so on from different perspective and Made some convincing conclusion. But in general, trade and investment integration research is still in the state of schools of thought contend, the mechanism research and dynamic evolution of trade and investment integration of research is insufficiency. The development of trade and investment integration level definition is not clear. The trade investment integration research for the further research of this paper provides a predictor and theory development space.
The purpose of this study lies in the combination of international trade. international investment and multinational company theory, system theory, system dynamics, and synergy theory to build a framework of collaborative foreign trade and investment to promote integration of trade and investment. The article explores the mechanism of trade and investment integration under the background of economic globalization, Put forward the system synergy degree of foreign trade and investment defined the development of trade and investment integration level. It can enrich the trade investment integration theory system, and it will explore the path of the transformation of economic development patterns and win the new international competition advantage of China. It is divided into five parts as follows:
Part one is Literature review of the relationship between foreign trade and investment, trade and investment integration theory, the carding system theory, system dynamics and synergy theory. The article discusses the theory origin of trade and investment integration research provides theoretical research framework of thinking and methods, such as tool.
Part two is the exploration of formation mechanism and operation mechanism of coordination of foreign trade and investment to promote trade and investment integration. This paper put the foreign trade and investment into a new theoretical framework to analyze the trade investment integration operating mechanism. The paper analyses the trade and investment integration system behavior main body, key elements and system structure of dynamic evolution of trade and investment integration system, mechanism and explore the mechanism of trade and investment integration, put forward the system synergy degree of foreign trade and investment concept, build the coordination degree model to measure the development of trade and investment integration level.
Part three is trade and investment integration dynamic evolution inspection. This article builds a competition and cooperation foreign trade and investment co-evolution model to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and investment co-evolution of competition and cooperation co-evolution, and builds a trade and investment integration simulation model from the micro-structure, and to simulate China's foreign trade and investment development.
Part four is the test of China's trade and investment integration development. This article study China's foreign trade and investment Coordination from Scale, structure, main body, policies, and location aspects. The paper builds a test quantitative empirical model to test the development situation of China's trade and investment integration of foreign trade and investment in long-term co-integration relationship between foreign trade is the granger cause of investment growth, but investment is not the cause of the foreign trade. Computing system coordination degree of China's foreign trade and investment and concludes that China's trade and investment integration in its infancy.
The five is policy recommendations. The article promotes trade and investment integration of policy recommendations from the macro, meso and micro three levels to promote foreign trade and investment cooperation according to less for ever in the whole framework of coordination of foreign trade and investment the lack of systematic policy design, based on the perspective of coordination.
There are four main innovation points in this paper. The First the article explores the forming mechanism of trade and investment integration Based on the collaborative perspective. The second is dynamic evolution of trade and investment integration system analysis and simulation.The third is that the article empirical analysis on the development of China's trade and investment integration of the status quo. The fourth is that the article defines the system synergy degree of foreign trade and investment, the quantitative level of trade and investment integration development.
一直以来,对外贸易与投资的互动与融合是主流经济学家所关注的重要问题。自上世纪50年代起,国外学者对贸易与投资关系的研究,先后指出了不同条件下对外贸易与投资之间的替代、互补、不确定关系。
20世纪90年代以来,随着经济全球化的深入发展,贸易投资一体化发展加速,国内外学者从不同的视角对贸易投资一体化的理论渊源、内涵界定、形成动因、表现形式以及促进一体化发展的策略等方面进行了研究,取得了一些令人信服的结论。但总体来说,贸易投资一体化的研究仍处于百家争鸣的状态,对贸易投资一体化的机理研究与动态演进研究欠缺,贸易投资一体化的发展水平界定不明晰,贸易投资一体化的研究不足为本文的深入研究提供锲机与理论开拓空间。
本文在国内外研究基础上,综合运用国际贸易、国际投资、跨国公司理论、系统论、系统动力学和协同论,构建基于协同视角的贸易投资一体化分析框架,分析贸易投资一体化的行为主体和影响贸易投资一体化的关键要素,探索贸易投资一体化的形成机理,提出对外贸易与投资系统协同度测算贸易投资一体化的发展水平。一来可以丰富贸易投资一体化的理论体系,二来探索中国加快经济发展方式转变,赢得国际竞争新优势的路径。本文主要分为五大部分：
第一部分是研究的理论基础。从国际贸易、国际投资与跨国公司理论以及贸易投资一体化理论等方面,系统论述了贸易投资一体化研究的理论渊源,同时梳理了系统论、系统动力学以及协同论的基本思想与相关方法,为理论研究提供思维框架和方法工具。
第二部分是基于协同视角构建贸易投资一体化的分析框架,探索贸易投资-体化机理。在界定贸易投资一体化及其系统的内涵与特征基础上,基于协同视角,分析贸易投资一体化系统的行为主体、关键要素和系统结构,研究贸易投资一体化系统的动态演进及运行机制,以探索贸易投资一体化机理。提出对外贸易与投资系统协同度概念,构建协同度模型,测算贸易投资一体化的发展水平。
第三部分是贸易投资一体化动态演进检验。构建对外贸易与投资的竞争与合作协同演化模型,揭示对外贸易与投资竞争协同演化和合作协同演化关系。从系统的微观结构出发构建贸易投资一体化仿真模型,对中国对外贸易与投资发展进行仿真模拟。
第四部分是中国贸易投资一体化发展检验。从规模、结构、主体、政策、阶段和区位六个方面定性研究中国的对外贸易与投资的协同状况。构建实证模型定量检验中国贸易投资一体化的发展状况,发现对外贸易与投资之间在长期具有协整关系,对外贸易是投资增长的格兰杰原因,但是投资却不是对外贸易增长的格兰杰原因。计算中国对外贸易与投资系统协同度,发现中国贸易投资一体化处于初级阶段。
第五部分是政策建议。针对以往较少从对外贸易与投资协同的整体框架进行系统性政策设计的不足,基于协同的视角,从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出促进对外贸易与投资协同推进贸易投资一体化的政策建议。
本文的主要创新点：(1)基于协同视角揭示了贸易投资一体化形成机理；(2)对贸易投资一体化系统动态演进分析和仿真模拟；(3)实证分析中国贸易投资一体化的发展现状；(4)定义对外贸易与投资系统协同度,定量说明贸易投资一体化发展水平。
Economic globalization and regional integration make more and more countries and regions participate in the rivers of the world economic development, foreign trade and foreign direct investment have become the main power to promote the growth of national or regional economy, the impact is becoming more and more deeply. Its growth rate of output growth is far more than the world. The international financial crisis which is caused by Us and European debt has brought different degree of impact to the economic development of all countries. Countries in the world pay more and more attention to the role of outside foreign direct investment at the same time of developing foreign trade.
Trade and investment relationship and their integration development is the focus of mainstream economists all the time. Since the1950s, foreign scholars reveal the alternative and complementary and uncertainty and fusion relation between foreign trade and investment through the study of a country (or area) of foreign trade and investment.
Since the1990's, the development of trade and investment integration accelerates with the in-depth development of economic globalization, domestic and foreign scholars study trade and investment integration theory origin, connotation definition, development, motivation, forms and strategies to promote the development of integration and so on from different perspective and Made some convincing conclusion. But in general, trade and investment integration research is still in the state of schools of thought contend, the mechanism research and dynamic evolution of trade and investment integration of research is insufficiency. The development of trade and investment integration level definition is not clear. The trade investment integration research for the further research of this paper provides a predictor and theory development space.
The purpose of this study lies in the combination of international trade. international investment and multinational company theory, system theory, system dynamics, and synergy theory to build a framework of collaborative foreign trade and investment to promote integration of trade and investment. The article explores the mechanism of trade and investment integration under the background of economic globalization, Put forward the system synergy degree of foreign trade and investment defined the development of trade and investment integration level. It can enrich the trade investment integration theory system, and it will explore the path of the transformation of economic development patterns and win the new international competition advantage of China. It is divided into five parts as follows:
Part one is Literature review of the relationship between foreign trade and investment, trade and investment integration theory, the carding system theory, system dynamics and synergy theory. The article discusses the theory origin of trade and investment integration research provides theoretical research framework of thinking and methods, such as tool.
Part two is the exploration of formation mechanism and operation mechanism of coordination of foreign trade and investment to promote trade and investment integration. This paper put the foreign trade and investment into a new theoretical framework to analyze the trade investment integration operating mechanism. The paper analyses the trade and investment integration system behavior main body, key elements and system structure of dynamic evolution of trade and investment integration system, mechanism and explore the mechanism of trade and investment integration, put forward the system synergy degree of foreign trade and investment concept, build the coordination degree model to measure the development of trade and investment integration level.
Part three is trade and investment integration dynamic evolution inspection. This article builds a competition and cooperation foreign trade and investment co-evolution model to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and investment co-evolution of competition and cooperation co-evolution, and builds a trade and investment integration simulation model from the micro-structure, and to simulate China's foreign trade and investment development.
Part four is the test of China's trade and investment integration development. This article study China's foreign trade and investment Coordination from Scale, structure, main body, policies, and location aspects. The paper builds a test quantitative empirical model to test the development situation of China's trade and investment integration of foreign trade and investment in long-term co-integration relationship between foreign trade is the granger cause of investment growth, but investment is not the cause of the foreign trade. Computing system coordination degree of China's foreign trade and investment and concludes that China's trade and investment integration in its infancy.
The five is policy recommendations. The article promotes trade and investment integration of policy recommendations from the macro, meso and micro three levels to promote foreign trade and investment cooperation according to less for ever in the whole framework of coordination of foreign trade and investment the lack of systematic policy design, based on the perspective of coordination.
There are four main innovation points in this paper. The First the article explores the forming mechanism of trade and investment integration Based on the collaborative perspective. The second is dynamic evolution of trade and investment integration system analysis and simulation.The third is that the article empirical analysis on the development of China's trade and investment integration of the status quo. The fourth is that the article defines the system synergy degree of foreign trade and investment, the quantitative level of trade and investment integration development.
引文
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1 张二震,马野青,方勇,等.贸易投资一体化与中国的战略[M].北京：人民出版社,2004.
1 吴彤.自组织方法论研究[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2001.
1 赫尔曼,哈肯.协同学——大自然构成的奥秘.凌复华译.上海：上海译文出版社,2001.
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1 谢旭光,张在旭.基于协同学的企业未来核心竞争力研究[J].未来与发展,2012,2：51-54.
1 曾珍香,张培,王欣菲.基于复杂系统的区域协调发展[M].北京：科学出版社,2010.
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1 第二产业包含采矿业、制造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业和建筑业。
2 第三产业主要包括交通运输、仓储邮政业、信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、批发零售业、住宿餐饮业、金融业、房地产业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业。
1 商务部、国家统计局和国家外汇管理局：《2011年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》。
1 王英,对外直接投资与中国产业结构调整[M].北京：科学出版社,2010.
1 傅自应.中国对外贸易三十年[M].中国财政经济出版社,2008,12.
2 资料来源：2011年9月7日,世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum,简称WEF)发布《2011-2012全球竞争力报告》。
3 凌丹,黄惠萍.国际经济技术合作[M].武汉理工大学出版社,2012.
1 依据三次产业的范畴将对外贸易与投资划分为第一产业(农、林、牧、渔)、第二产业(工业(采矿业、制造业、电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业)和建筑业。第三产业(交通运输(物流)、信息产业、商业(批发零售业、住宿餐饮业、租赁商务服务业)、金融业、房地产业、科研教育、公共服务)七大类。
1 党远鸿.中国对外直接投资投资与对外贸易关系研究[D].华东师范大学博士论文,2009.
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1 第二产业包含采矿业、制造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业和建筑业。
2 第三产业主要包括交通运输、仓储邮政业、信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、批发零售业、住宿餐饮业、金融业、房地产业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业。
1 商务部、国家统计局和国家外汇管理局：《2011年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》。
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1 依据三次产业的范畴将对外贸易与投资划分为第一产业(农、林、牧、渔)、第二产业(工业(采矿业、制造业、电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业)和建筑业。第三产业(交通运输(物流)、信息产业、商业(批发零售业、住宿餐饮业、租赁商务服务业)、金融业、房地产业、科研教育、公共服务)七大类。
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