城市快速扩张中土地供应对房价及其波动的影响研究
|
摘要
城市用地空间扩张已成为我国土地利用的主要特征之一,其扩张的速度和方位不仅关乎城镇化发展的水平和质量,而且对区域性的土地供应市场和房地产市场有重要影响。2001-2010年,全国建成区面积由24026.63km2增加至178691.70km2,10年间扩大了近7.5倍,常住人口城镇化率由2001年的37.66%提升到2010年的49.95%,上涨了32.63个百分点,可见,我国土地扩张的速度远大于人口城镇化速度,这在一定程度上反映了我国人口城镇化发展尚存低密度和分散化的倾向,这其中有地方政府“政绩化”发展的因素,也有城市规划“大而全”的因素,而最直观的反映是土地供应数量的逐年递增。为此,《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》明确指出要合理确定城市的开发边界,制定科学的土地供应计划,研究土地供应中长期规划,防止特大城市面积过度扩张。在城市快速扩张的同时,我国房地产价格呈现持续上涨和不确定性波动的状态,并成为社会各界关注的焦点,特别是2002年《招标拍卖挂牌出让国有土地使用权规定》出台之后,关于房地产价格影响因素和市场调控政策的争论更趋激烈,其中,土地供应对房地产市场价格有重要影响的论断得到各方的认可。从国内学者的研究成果来看,针对土地供应对房价影响或二者相互关系的研究数量较多,但研究内容主要从土地供应数量入手,对供应政策、供应结构、方式和区位因素考虑不足、不够系统,研究方法多以定性分析为主,定量研究方法较少,且主要集中在房价与地价相互关系的研究领域,但由于研究数据、研究区域和研究时限的不一致,导致研究结论尚不统一。另外,土地供应与房价方面的研究基础多以宏观数据为主,虽在一定程度上反映了全国的基本面,但由于房地产市场具有严格的区域性特质,宏观层面的研究数据一方面掩盖了房地产市场的区位因素,另一方面造成了政府和企业决策的缺乏。鉴于此,本研究以城市快速扩张为大背景,将雨地供应和房地产价格作为研究基础,以重庆市主城区为实证,系统分析城市扩张与土地供应数量、供应结构、供应区位、供应价格或级别的相互关系,并在此基础上深入分析土地供应政策、供应数量、供应结构和供应方式对房地产价格的影响机理和作用特征。为体现土地供应对房价影响的空间差异,本文从中观尺度入手,以重庆空间战略区划——“一圈两翼”为研究对象,系统地比较“一圈”和“两翼”地区土地供应数量、供应结构和供应方式对房价影响的异质性,以期为运用土地供应政策进行房地产市场的调控,为政府、企业(开发商)和消费者的决策提供参考。
在理论研究方面,本文从城市扩张与土地供应的协同机制、土地供应对房价的作用机制和土地供应对房价的影响机制三方面剖析城市扩张背景下土地供应对房价的影响机制和作用机理。其中,前两部分的研究主要以规范分析为主,通过构建作用机制框架分析作用渠道和运行机理；在土地供应对房价的影响机制方面,笔者通过供需模型、四象限模型、税负归宿理论、边际效用理论和市场划分理论等经济学手段和理论,推导出7项预期结论：(1)在高房价的背景下,政府增加土地“有效”供应,理论上可以缓解市场的供需矛盾。(2)房价的变动与土地供应的弹性、周期的长短、区域土地资源可供给潜力等密不可分,长期的土地供应量不足会导致房价的持续上涨。(3)在房地产需求旺盛的情况下,容积率的增加会引起房价的上升,房价的走高会带动相应地价的抬升,进而引起土地市场投资预期的看涨,最终导致土地供应数量的进一步提升,容积率下降将产生一系列相反的影响。(4)土地供应方式对应的需求曲线缺乏弹性的地区,地价上涨溢价中的大部分被转移至开发商,其会提升房价维护预期利润,最终导致房价升高：土地供应方式对应的需求曲线富有弹性的地区,地价上涨中的大部分被转移至消费者,但预期利润的保障将引导开发商降低房价。“招拍挂”等土地供应方式本身不是引发房价上涨的原因,地方政府或开发商在高房价时期的惜售或储备等行为将推高房价。(5)土地供应方式变革可能会抬高地价,在市场上形成一种未来房价要上涨的预期,预期会促使现有地价的上升,地价的上升又会引起未来房价上涨的信号,从而引起新一轮的房价上涨,最终形成复杂的、双向的、长效的作用机制。(6)“招拍挂”对房地产和土地供应市场的影响有两方面：一是地价引起房价上涨并使其回归理性价格水平(社会平均价格水平)：二是使地价对房价的影响降低。(7)保障性住房供应量的增加不一定会将土地供应和房地产市场进行明确的划分,其对商品住房价格的影响呈现三种效应：抑制效应、抬升效应和不确定性效应。明确土地供应和住房需求市场,以量化的指标对两类市场进行严格的划分,可达到“增加保障房,平抑高房价”的目的。
在实证分析方面,本文的基本逻辑是：城市扩张与土地供应的相互关系→土地供应政策对房价及其波动的影响→土地供应数量、结构、方式和区位对房价及其波动的影响→土地供应价格与房价的因果关系。具体而言,(1)城市扩张与土地供应的相互关系阐述,主要从城市扩张的趋势与特征、城市扩张对土地供应的历史影响、重庆主城区“二环时代”城市扩张对供应的趋势影响以及城市扩张对土地级别和基准地价的影响四方面系统阐述了重庆市城市快速扩张与土地供应的相互关系。(2)土地供应政策对房价及其波动的影响分析,在对土地供应调控房价的政策进行梳理的基础上,通过构建1998年1季度至2011年4季度全国层面的房价小波分析模型和VAR模型,从房价的演变趋势、房价的波动周期和外力作用的时滞性三方面系统地阐述了土地供应政策对房价影响的影响。(3)土地供应数量、结构、方式和区位对房价的影响研究。本文以2003-2010年重庆主城九区各类建设用地供应和房地产市场价格为基础数据,通过构建房地产市场的存量—流量模型、边际效用模型、虚拟变量模型分析了重庆市土地供应的各方面对房价的影响特征,另外,通过构建多元线性回归模型,分析了不同区域土地供应对房价影响的空间差异。(4)土地供应价格与房价的因果关系分析。从供需角度和市场综合角度对房价与地价的相互关系进行理论分析,进而应用2001年第1季度至2010年第4季度重庆市主城区的土地交易价格指数和住宅销售价格指数,借助Granger因果关系检验模型分析房价与地价的因果关系。
通过上述分析,本文得出以下研究结论：(1)城市快速扩张过程中,由于扩张的方式、速度和趋势存在差异,土地供应数量、结构、区位和等级等也存在空间差异,这为土地供应对房地产市场的影响提供了区域性的大环境。(2)土地供应短期内供给无弹性和长期内供应量不足是引起高房价的重要原因,但就国内目前的宏观情况来看,土地和房地产市场需求仍然较为旺盛,试图通过增加土地供应来降低房价的做法不现实,所以有必要从供应方式变革和市场结构重划的角度来调控房价。(3)土地供应政策会在整体上对房价产生显著影响,进而改变房价的变动趋势、波动周期和时滞性。(4)土地供应对房价的影响较为复杂,土地供应的数量、结构、方式均会对房价及其波动产生不同程度的影响。(5)土地供应从总量、结构和方式等多方面影响房价,且影响机理和特征会因区域的经济发展水平、市场发育及完善程度不同而表现不一。(6)容积率是地价变动的正向“晴雨表”,且二者在处于较低水平下的关联性较强。(7)房价和地价的关系呈现动态波动特征。
通过上述理论探索和实证研究,本文的创新有如下方面：(1)本文在城市快速扩张的大背景下,系统地研究了土地供应对房价及其波动的影响,这是该领域研究一次有意义的尝试。(2)从理论和实证对城市扩张的进程、特征及趋势分析进行了分析,并在此基础上归纳出城市扩张过程中土地供应的规模、布局、结构以及土地级别和价格对房价产生的影响,这是对地区性城市扩张过程中土地供应特点的宏观把握,为更清晰地研究土地供应对房价的影响提供了良好的基底,丰富了现有土地供应对房价影响的研究成果,也为研究的深入开展提供了方向。(3)本文运用针对性的研究方法系统地阐述了城市扩张与土地供应的关系,土地供应的数量、结构、方式、区位对地价及其波动的影响以及房价与地价的相互关系。运用土地供应速度、强度和趋势度等土地演变空间形态(景观格局)模型分析城市扩张与土地供应相互关系；运用“存量—流量”模型分析土地供应数量对房价及其波动的影响；应用区县的面板数据分析土地供应对房价及其波动影响的空间差异。(4)房地产市场具有很强的区域性特征,本文以重庆市主城区为实证,研究城市快速扩张中土地供应对房价的影响,一方面揭示了城市扩张对土地供应的影响,揭示了土地供应数量、容积率、供应结构、供应区位、供应方式、供应价格对房价的作用机理和影响特征,另一方面更清晰地认识地区性房地产市场,并为其健康有序运行以及房价的平稳回落提供了土地供应方面的调控举措。
由于受限于人力和TM影像的获取时限,本文仅对1995年、2000年和2008年3年主城区的建设用地进行了人工解译,且建设用地细分为居住用地、公共服务用地和工业仓储用地主要依靠实际经验和人工判读,研究可能出现分析数据的偏差。另外,本文以实证分析为主体,侧重于文章实践意义的体现,对于理论分析和经验分析尚显薄弱。今后可以从研究数据的丰裕度、计量模型构建的合理性和土地供应对房价影响的理论研究方面进行深化。
The expansion of city land space has become one of the main characteristics of land use in China, its expanding speed and range is not only related to the level and quality of the development of urbanization, but also have an important influence on the regional supply of land market and real estate market. From2001to2010, the built-up area increased from24026.63km2to178691.70km', which expanded by nearly7.5times during the10years. The resident population urbanization rate rose from37.66%in2001to49.95%in2010, which went up32.63%. It is clear that the expansion of land in China is far greater than the population urbanization rate, which reflects the tendency of low density and decentralization of population urbanization in China. This sign is caused by the local governments'"achievements" of the development and the "big and complete" city planning and the most directly perceived reflection is the increasing number of yearly land supply. Therefore,"The Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China" clearly pointed out that we should rationally determine the boundary city development, to develop the land supply plan of scientific research, land supply and long-term planning, to prevent excessive outspread of megalopolis. With the rapid expansion of the city, China's real estate prices continue rising and uncertain, and become the focus of attention of the society, especially after "tender auction listing transferring state-owned land use rights provision" promulgated in2002, the debate about factors affecting the price of real estate and market regulation policy become more intense. Among them, the judgment that the supply of land has an important impact on the real estate market prices is recognized by the public. From the domestic scholar's research results, due to the larger number of researches on land supply's impact on housing prices or the relationship between the two sides, the research contents are mainly from the land supply, not considering enough and systematically of the supply policy, supply structure, style and location, and the research methods are mainly qualitative analysis, few quantitative research method, and mainly concentrated in the research field of mutual relationship between housing price and land price, and because of the inconsistency of data, research area and time, the research conclusion is still inconsistent. In addition, the land supply and housing prices are mainly based on the macro data. Although to some extent it reflects the basic aspect, the real estate market has strict regional characteristics, and research data in macro level conceals location factors of the real estate market, resulting in a lack of decision-making of government and the enterprise. In view of this, this study bases on the background of the rapid expansion of city and on the research foundation of the land supply and real estate price. Taking takes the urban area of Chongqing city as an example, it analyzes relationship among city expansion, land supply, supply structure, the supply of location, supply price or level and then systematically analyzes influence mechanism and price characteristics on real estate prices from the land supply policy, supply number, supply structure and supply methods. In order to reflect the housing space difference of the influence of land supply, this paper starts from the middle view measure and spatial strategy regionalization in Chongqing "one circle and two wings" as the research object, systematically compare heterogeneity of affects on housing prices from number of land supply, supply structure and the supply methods in "one circle and two wings" area to control real estate market supply of land use policy, providing reference for the government, enterprises (developers) to provide and consumers.
In the aspect of theory research, three aspects of influence mechanism of synergy mechanism, the supply of land from the city expansion and land supply mechanism and the supply of land prices on the prices of analyzing the mechanism of effect of land supply mechanism and the effect on prices under the background of city expansion. Among them, the first two parts of the study mainly in the normative analysis, by the analysis of channel function and operation mechanism framework; in effect mechanism on the prices of land supply, the supply and demand model, the four quadrant model, tax incidence theory, marginal utility theory and the market division theory and other economics methods and theory, the expected conclusion is derived:1) in the context of high prices, the government to increase land supply," effective " theory can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of market.2) Changes and land supply elasticity, cycle length, prices of regional land resource supply potential can be inseparable, rising long-term land supply shortage will lead to price.3) In real estate demand situation, to increase the volume of rising house prices will raise, the high prices will drive the corresponding price rise, causing investment in land market is expected to rise, eventually lead to further improve the land supply, the volume rate will produce a series of the opposite effect.4) the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the inelastic region, land prices in the premium most were transferred to developers, it will raise prices to maintain profit expectations, leading to price increases; the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the elastic region, land prices in the most were transferred to the consumer, but the expected profit security will guide developers to reduce prices." Dr. shoot up " the supply of land is not the cause of rising prices, the local government or developers will push up prices in the high price period, sell or reserve act.5) Change the way of land supply will increase land prices, the formation of a future prices to rise is expected in the market, the rise is expected to make existing premium, the premium increases will lead to signal future price increases, resulting in a new round of price increases, eventually forming a complex, bidirectional, long-acting mechanism of action.6)" two shoot up" the impact of real estate and land supply market:one is the land prices caused prices to rise and the return to rational prices——the average price level of social——two is to reduce the impact on the land price.7) Increase the affordable housing supply will not be the supply of land and real estate market clear division, its impact on the commercial housing price has three effects:inhibition effect, uplift effect and the uncertainty effect. Clear the land supply and housing demand in the market, strict division of the two types of market was performed to quantify the indexes, can achieve the purpose of "increase the low-income housing, stabilize the high prices"
In the empirical analysis, the basic logic of this article is:city expansion and land supply relationship, land supply policy impact on housing prices and volatility, land supply, structure, mode and location on the price and its fluctuation, the supply of land prices and housing prices causality. Specifically,1) the relationship between city expansion and land supply, mainly from the city expansion trend and characteristics of city expansion, the supply of land for the historical influence, Chongqing city " second time" city expansion of supply and city expansion trend of land grade and standard land price system in four aspects elaborates influence the city of Chongqing city the rapid expansion and land supply relationship.2) analysis of the impact of land supply policy on house price and its volatility, on the foundation of combing the regulation and control of land supply policy on house prices, by building the analysis model and VAR model1quarter to the4quarter of2011the level of house prices in1998from the wavelet, the evolution trend of prices, price fluctuation cycle and the delay of external force three aspects elaborated systematically the impact of land supply policy on housing prices.3) The number of land supply, structure, mode and location of the impact on prices of. In this paper, taking the year2003-2010Chongqing nine districts of various types of construction land supply and real estate market prices for basic data, through the construction of the real estate market and the stock and flow model, the marginal utility model, dummy variable model analysis of the parties the supply of land in Chongqing city house prices impact characteristics, in addition, based on the multiple linear regression model, analysis of the influences of different regional land supply for housing space.4) Causality analysis of the supply of land prices and housing prices. The theoretical analysis of relationship from the perspective of demand and supply and market comprehensive perspective on housing price and land price, then the application of the first quarter of2001to the fourth quarter of2010in the urban area of Chongqing city land price index and housing sales price index, the causal relationship with Granger causality test model analysis of housing price and land price.
Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions:1) the process of rapid expansion of city, there were differences due to expansion way, speed and trend, land supply, structure, location and level also exists spatial difference, this provides the regional environment as the supply of land to the real estate market.2) the supply of land supply in the short run without elasticity and long-term supply shortage is an important cause of the high prices, but the current domestic macroeconomic situation, land and real estate market demand remains relatively strong, trying to increase the supply of land to reduce the prices are not the reality, so it is necessary to control prices change from supply and market structure readjustment angle.3) the supply of land policy on the whole have a significant impact on prices, and then change the trend, the price fluctuations cycle and time delay.4) the supply of land on the impact of house prices is relatively complex, the quantity, the structure of land supply, the way will produce different effects on prices and volatility.5) The supply of land from the total amount, structure and methods and other aspects affect the price, and the influence mechanism and characteristics because of the level of economic development, market development and perfection in different regions and different.6) the volume rate is positive "barometer" of the price changes, and the two in the lower level of the strong correlation.7) The relationship between house price and land price dynamic features.
Through the theoretical exploration and empirical study, the innovation of this paper are as follows:1) based on the background of the rapid expansion of the city, this paper has systematically studied the effect on prices and their fluctuation from land supply, which is a meaningful attempt to this field.2) This paper has analyzed the process, characteristics and trends of city expansion then concluded the impact on housing prices from scale, layout, structure of land supply and level and price of land in the process of land expansion. This is the macro control of supply characteristics of land area in the process of the city expansion, which provides a good base for the clearer study on the impact on housing prices from land supply enriches the above research and also provides a direction for deeper research.3) This paper systematically does a research methods of the system explained the relationship between city expansion and land supply, land supply quantity, structure, style, location of land price and its volatility and the relationship between housing price and land price. Use evolution (landscape) model of land supply in speed, strength and trend of land space to analyze the relationship between city expansion and land supply; use the Stock-Flow model to analyze the effects of land supply for housing and its volatility; spatial difference analysis based on panel data of district land supply for housing and its fluctuation.4) The real estate market has strong regional characteristics. As the empirical research to the urban area of Chongqing City, the paper does researches on the impact on prices from land supply in rapid expansion of city, reveals the influence of city expansion of land supply on one hand and reveals the impact on housing prices from the number, structure, volume, location, mode, price of land supply, on the other hand, it has a clear understanding of the real estate market area, and provides the control measures of land supply for its healthy and orderly operation and house prices.
Due to the time limit for human resources and TM images, this paper only has the manual interpretation for the lands for construction in the main urban areas in1995,2000and2008,.and the conclusion that construction land divide into residential land, public services and industrial storage sites relies mainly on experience and manual reading, therefore, there possibly are some analytic data deviations. In addition, based mainly on the empirical analysis, this paper focuses on the practical significance, so the analysis of the theory and the experience is still weak. It would better deepen the study in abundant research data, reasonable econometric model and theory research on the impact on housing prices from land supply.
在理论研究方面,本文从城市扩张与土地供应的协同机制、土地供应对房价的作用机制和土地供应对房价的影响机制三方面剖析城市扩张背景下土地供应对房价的影响机制和作用机理。其中,前两部分的研究主要以规范分析为主,通过构建作用机制框架分析作用渠道和运行机理；在土地供应对房价的影响机制方面,笔者通过供需模型、四象限模型、税负归宿理论、边际效用理论和市场划分理论等经济学手段和理论,推导出7项预期结论：(1)在高房价的背景下,政府增加土地“有效”供应,理论上可以缓解市场的供需矛盾。(2)房价的变动与土地供应的弹性、周期的长短、区域土地资源可供给潜力等密不可分,长期的土地供应量不足会导致房价的持续上涨。(3)在房地产需求旺盛的情况下,容积率的增加会引起房价的上升,房价的走高会带动相应地价的抬升,进而引起土地市场投资预期的看涨,最终导致土地供应数量的进一步提升,容积率下降将产生一系列相反的影响。(4)土地供应方式对应的需求曲线缺乏弹性的地区,地价上涨溢价中的大部分被转移至开发商,其会提升房价维护预期利润,最终导致房价升高：土地供应方式对应的需求曲线富有弹性的地区,地价上涨中的大部分被转移至消费者,但预期利润的保障将引导开发商降低房价。“招拍挂”等土地供应方式本身不是引发房价上涨的原因,地方政府或开发商在高房价时期的惜售或储备等行为将推高房价。(5)土地供应方式变革可能会抬高地价,在市场上形成一种未来房价要上涨的预期,预期会促使现有地价的上升,地价的上升又会引起未来房价上涨的信号,从而引起新一轮的房价上涨,最终形成复杂的、双向的、长效的作用机制。(6)“招拍挂”对房地产和土地供应市场的影响有两方面：一是地价引起房价上涨并使其回归理性价格水平(社会平均价格水平)：二是使地价对房价的影响降低。(7)保障性住房供应量的增加不一定会将土地供应和房地产市场进行明确的划分,其对商品住房价格的影响呈现三种效应：抑制效应、抬升效应和不确定性效应。明确土地供应和住房需求市场,以量化的指标对两类市场进行严格的划分,可达到“增加保障房,平抑高房价”的目的。
在实证分析方面,本文的基本逻辑是：城市扩张与土地供应的相互关系→土地供应政策对房价及其波动的影响→土地供应数量、结构、方式和区位对房价及其波动的影响→土地供应价格与房价的因果关系。具体而言,(1)城市扩张与土地供应的相互关系阐述,主要从城市扩张的趋势与特征、城市扩张对土地供应的历史影响、重庆主城区“二环时代”城市扩张对供应的趋势影响以及城市扩张对土地级别和基准地价的影响四方面系统阐述了重庆市城市快速扩张与土地供应的相互关系。(2)土地供应政策对房价及其波动的影响分析,在对土地供应调控房价的政策进行梳理的基础上,通过构建1998年1季度至2011年4季度全国层面的房价小波分析模型和VAR模型,从房价的演变趋势、房价的波动周期和外力作用的时滞性三方面系统地阐述了土地供应政策对房价影响的影响。(3)土地供应数量、结构、方式和区位对房价的影响研究。本文以2003-2010年重庆主城九区各类建设用地供应和房地产市场价格为基础数据,通过构建房地产市场的存量—流量模型、边际效用模型、虚拟变量模型分析了重庆市土地供应的各方面对房价的影响特征,另外,通过构建多元线性回归模型,分析了不同区域土地供应对房价影响的空间差异。(4)土地供应价格与房价的因果关系分析。从供需角度和市场综合角度对房价与地价的相互关系进行理论分析,进而应用2001年第1季度至2010年第4季度重庆市主城区的土地交易价格指数和住宅销售价格指数,借助Granger因果关系检验模型分析房价与地价的因果关系。
通过上述分析,本文得出以下研究结论：(1)城市快速扩张过程中,由于扩张的方式、速度和趋势存在差异,土地供应数量、结构、区位和等级等也存在空间差异,这为土地供应对房地产市场的影响提供了区域性的大环境。(2)土地供应短期内供给无弹性和长期内供应量不足是引起高房价的重要原因,但就国内目前的宏观情况来看,土地和房地产市场需求仍然较为旺盛,试图通过增加土地供应来降低房价的做法不现实,所以有必要从供应方式变革和市场结构重划的角度来调控房价。(3)土地供应政策会在整体上对房价产生显著影响,进而改变房价的变动趋势、波动周期和时滞性。(4)土地供应对房价的影响较为复杂,土地供应的数量、结构、方式均会对房价及其波动产生不同程度的影响。(5)土地供应从总量、结构和方式等多方面影响房价,且影响机理和特征会因区域的经济发展水平、市场发育及完善程度不同而表现不一。(6)容积率是地价变动的正向“晴雨表”,且二者在处于较低水平下的关联性较强。(7)房价和地价的关系呈现动态波动特征。
通过上述理论探索和实证研究,本文的创新有如下方面：(1)本文在城市快速扩张的大背景下,系统地研究了土地供应对房价及其波动的影响,这是该领域研究一次有意义的尝试。(2)从理论和实证对城市扩张的进程、特征及趋势分析进行了分析,并在此基础上归纳出城市扩张过程中土地供应的规模、布局、结构以及土地级别和价格对房价产生的影响,这是对地区性城市扩张过程中土地供应特点的宏观把握,为更清晰地研究土地供应对房价的影响提供了良好的基底,丰富了现有土地供应对房价影响的研究成果,也为研究的深入开展提供了方向。(3)本文运用针对性的研究方法系统地阐述了城市扩张与土地供应的关系,土地供应的数量、结构、方式、区位对地价及其波动的影响以及房价与地价的相互关系。运用土地供应速度、强度和趋势度等土地演变空间形态(景观格局)模型分析城市扩张与土地供应相互关系；运用“存量—流量”模型分析土地供应数量对房价及其波动的影响；应用区县的面板数据分析土地供应对房价及其波动影响的空间差异。(4)房地产市场具有很强的区域性特征,本文以重庆市主城区为实证,研究城市快速扩张中土地供应对房价的影响,一方面揭示了城市扩张对土地供应的影响,揭示了土地供应数量、容积率、供应结构、供应区位、供应方式、供应价格对房价的作用机理和影响特征,另一方面更清晰地认识地区性房地产市场,并为其健康有序运行以及房价的平稳回落提供了土地供应方面的调控举措。
由于受限于人力和TM影像的获取时限,本文仅对1995年、2000年和2008年3年主城区的建设用地进行了人工解译,且建设用地细分为居住用地、公共服务用地和工业仓储用地主要依靠实际经验和人工判读,研究可能出现分析数据的偏差。另外,本文以实证分析为主体,侧重于文章实践意义的体现,对于理论分析和经验分析尚显薄弱。今后可以从研究数据的丰裕度、计量模型构建的合理性和土地供应对房价影响的理论研究方面进行深化。
The expansion of city land space has become one of the main characteristics of land use in China, its expanding speed and range is not only related to the level and quality of the development of urbanization, but also have an important influence on the regional supply of land market and real estate market. From2001to2010, the built-up area increased from24026.63km2to178691.70km', which expanded by nearly7.5times during the10years. The resident population urbanization rate rose from37.66%in2001to49.95%in2010, which went up32.63%. It is clear that the expansion of land in China is far greater than the population urbanization rate, which reflects the tendency of low density and decentralization of population urbanization in China. This sign is caused by the local governments'"achievements" of the development and the "big and complete" city planning and the most directly perceived reflection is the increasing number of yearly land supply. Therefore,"The Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China" clearly pointed out that we should rationally determine the boundary city development, to develop the land supply plan of scientific research, land supply and long-term planning, to prevent excessive outspread of megalopolis. With the rapid expansion of the city, China's real estate prices continue rising and uncertain, and become the focus of attention of the society, especially after "tender auction listing transferring state-owned land use rights provision" promulgated in2002, the debate about factors affecting the price of real estate and market regulation policy become more intense. Among them, the judgment that the supply of land has an important impact on the real estate market prices is recognized by the public. From the domestic scholar's research results, due to the larger number of researches on land supply's impact on housing prices or the relationship between the two sides, the research contents are mainly from the land supply, not considering enough and systematically of the supply policy, supply structure, style and location, and the research methods are mainly qualitative analysis, few quantitative research method, and mainly concentrated in the research field of mutual relationship between housing price and land price, and because of the inconsistency of data, research area and time, the research conclusion is still inconsistent. In addition, the land supply and housing prices are mainly based on the macro data. Although to some extent it reflects the basic aspect, the real estate market has strict regional characteristics, and research data in macro level conceals location factors of the real estate market, resulting in a lack of decision-making of government and the enterprise. In view of this, this study bases on the background of the rapid expansion of city and on the research foundation of the land supply and real estate price. Taking takes the urban area of Chongqing city as an example, it analyzes relationship among city expansion, land supply, supply structure, the supply of location, supply price or level and then systematically analyzes influence mechanism and price characteristics on real estate prices from the land supply policy, supply number, supply structure and supply methods. In order to reflect the housing space difference of the influence of land supply, this paper starts from the middle view measure and spatial strategy regionalization in Chongqing "one circle and two wings" as the research object, systematically compare heterogeneity of affects on housing prices from number of land supply, supply structure and the supply methods in "one circle and two wings" area to control real estate market supply of land use policy, providing reference for the government, enterprises (developers) to provide and consumers.
In the aspect of theory research, three aspects of influence mechanism of synergy mechanism, the supply of land from the city expansion and land supply mechanism and the supply of land prices on the prices of analyzing the mechanism of effect of land supply mechanism and the effect on prices under the background of city expansion. Among them, the first two parts of the study mainly in the normative analysis, by the analysis of channel function and operation mechanism framework; in effect mechanism on the prices of land supply, the supply and demand model, the four quadrant model, tax incidence theory, marginal utility theory and the market division theory and other economics methods and theory, the expected conclusion is derived:1) in the context of high prices, the government to increase land supply," effective " theory can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of market.2) Changes and land supply elasticity, cycle length, prices of regional land resource supply potential can be inseparable, rising long-term land supply shortage will lead to price.3) In real estate demand situation, to increase the volume of rising house prices will raise, the high prices will drive the corresponding price rise, causing investment in land market is expected to rise, eventually lead to further improve the land supply, the volume rate will produce a series of the opposite effect.4) the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the inelastic region, land prices in the premium most were transferred to developers, it will raise prices to maintain profit expectations, leading to price increases; the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the elastic region, land prices in the most were transferred to the consumer, but the expected profit security will guide developers to reduce prices." Dr. shoot up " the supply of land is not the cause of rising prices, the local government or developers will push up prices in the high price period, sell or reserve act.5) Change the way of land supply will increase land prices, the formation of a future prices to rise is expected in the market, the rise is expected to make existing premium, the premium increases will lead to signal future price increases, resulting in a new round of price increases, eventually forming a complex, bidirectional, long-acting mechanism of action.6)" two shoot up" the impact of real estate and land supply market:one is the land prices caused prices to rise and the return to rational prices——the average price level of social——two is to reduce the impact on the land price.7) Increase the affordable housing supply will not be the supply of land and real estate market clear division, its impact on the commercial housing price has three effects:inhibition effect, uplift effect and the uncertainty effect. Clear the land supply and housing demand in the market, strict division of the two types of market was performed to quantify the indexes, can achieve the purpose of "increase the low-income housing, stabilize the high prices"
In the empirical analysis, the basic logic of this article is:city expansion and land supply relationship, land supply policy impact on housing prices and volatility, land supply, structure, mode and location on the price and its fluctuation, the supply of land prices and housing prices causality. Specifically,1) the relationship between city expansion and land supply, mainly from the city expansion trend and characteristics of city expansion, the supply of land for the historical influence, Chongqing city " second time" city expansion of supply and city expansion trend of land grade and standard land price system in four aspects elaborates influence the city of Chongqing city the rapid expansion and land supply relationship.2) analysis of the impact of land supply policy on house price and its volatility, on the foundation of combing the regulation and control of land supply policy on house prices, by building the analysis model and VAR model1quarter to the4quarter of2011the level of house prices in1998from the wavelet, the evolution trend of prices, price fluctuation cycle and the delay of external force three aspects elaborated systematically the impact of land supply policy on housing prices.3) The number of land supply, structure, mode and location of the impact on prices of. In this paper, taking the year2003-2010Chongqing nine districts of various types of construction land supply and real estate market prices for basic data, through the construction of the real estate market and the stock and flow model, the marginal utility model, dummy variable model analysis of the parties the supply of land in Chongqing city house prices impact characteristics, in addition, based on the multiple linear regression model, analysis of the influences of different regional land supply for housing space.4) Causality analysis of the supply of land prices and housing prices. The theoretical analysis of relationship from the perspective of demand and supply and market comprehensive perspective on housing price and land price, then the application of the first quarter of2001to the fourth quarter of2010in the urban area of Chongqing city land price index and housing sales price index, the causal relationship with Granger causality test model analysis of housing price and land price.
Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions:1) the process of rapid expansion of city, there were differences due to expansion way, speed and trend, land supply, structure, location and level also exists spatial difference, this provides the regional environment as the supply of land to the real estate market.2) the supply of land supply in the short run without elasticity and long-term supply shortage is an important cause of the high prices, but the current domestic macroeconomic situation, land and real estate market demand remains relatively strong, trying to increase the supply of land to reduce the prices are not the reality, so it is necessary to control prices change from supply and market structure readjustment angle.3) the supply of land policy on the whole have a significant impact on prices, and then change the trend, the price fluctuations cycle and time delay.4) the supply of land on the impact of house prices is relatively complex, the quantity, the structure of land supply, the way will produce different effects on prices and volatility.5) The supply of land from the total amount, structure and methods and other aspects affect the price, and the influence mechanism and characteristics because of the level of economic development, market development and perfection in different regions and different.6) the volume rate is positive "barometer" of the price changes, and the two in the lower level of the strong correlation.7) The relationship between house price and land price dynamic features.
Through the theoretical exploration and empirical study, the innovation of this paper are as follows:1) based on the background of the rapid expansion of the city, this paper has systematically studied the effect on prices and their fluctuation from land supply, which is a meaningful attempt to this field.2) This paper has analyzed the process, characteristics and trends of city expansion then concluded the impact on housing prices from scale, layout, structure of land supply and level and price of land in the process of land expansion. This is the macro control of supply characteristics of land area in the process of the city expansion, which provides a good base for the clearer study on the impact on housing prices from land supply enriches the above research and also provides a direction for deeper research.3) This paper systematically does a research methods of the system explained the relationship between city expansion and land supply, land supply quantity, structure, style, location of land price and its volatility and the relationship between housing price and land price. Use evolution (landscape) model of land supply in speed, strength and trend of land space to analyze the relationship between city expansion and land supply; use the Stock-Flow model to analyze the effects of land supply for housing and its volatility; spatial difference analysis based on panel data of district land supply for housing and its fluctuation.4) The real estate market has strong regional characteristics. As the empirical research to the urban area of Chongqing City, the paper does researches on the impact on prices from land supply in rapid expansion of city, reveals the influence of city expansion of land supply on one hand and reveals the impact on housing prices from the number, structure, volume, location, mode, price of land supply, on the other hand, it has a clear understanding of the real estate market area, and provides the control measures of land supply for its healthy and orderly operation and house prices.
Due to the time limit for human resources and TM images, this paper only has the manual interpretation for the lands for construction in the main urban areas in1995,2000and2008,.and the conclusion that construction land divide into residential land, public services and industrial storage sites relies mainly on experience and manual reading, therefore, there possibly are some analytic data deviations. In addition, based mainly on the empirical analysis, this paper focuses on the practical significance, so the analysis of the theory and the experience is still weak. It would better deepen the study in abundant research data, reasonable econometric model and theory research on the impact on housing prices from land supply.
引文
④ 参见阿瑟·奥沙利文.城市经济学(第四版)[M],北京：中信出版社,2002,177-179。
⑤ 《2006年房地产蓝皮书》由中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究中心编撰、社会科学文献出版社出版。
① 详见《2012年中国房地产市场总结和2013年展望》
① 数据来自《房地产蓝皮书：中国房地产发展报告》,社会科学文献出版社出版,主编/牛凤瑞；副主编/李景国,尚教蔚。
③ 丰雷等(2011)的研究成果认为,全国土地供应数量滞后4个季度对房价的影响效果开始弱化。详见丰雷,苗田,蒋妍.中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,(2)：33-40.
[1]Waddell, Paul. UrbanSim:Modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning[J].2002,68 (3):297-314.
[2]Csillag F., Kabos S. Wavelets, boundaries and the analysis of landscape pattern[J], Ecoscience, 2002, (9):177-190.
[3]Bailey T. C., Gatrell A. C. Interactive Spatial Data Analysis[M]. Essex:Longman Group Limited, 1995.
[4]傅伯杰,陈利顶,马克明.景观生态学原理及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2002.
[5]Roberto C., Naria C. G., Paolo R. Urban mobility and urban from patterns of urban expansion[J]. Ecological Economics[J]. Ecological Economics,2002,40 (3):199-211.
[6]Leorey O. M., Nariida C. S. A framework for linking urban from and the social and environmental costs of different Air quality[J]. Environmental Modelling & software,1999, (14): 541-548.
[7]Rueckner, Jan K. B. Urban Sprawl:Diagnosis and Remedies[J]. International Rregional Science Review,2000,23 (2):160-171.
[8]Lopes R., Patricia H. Sprawl in the 1990s:Measurement, distribution, and trends[J]. Urban Affairs Review,2003,38 (3):325-355.
[9]Galster G., Hanson R., Woman H. Wrestling sprawl to the Ground:Defining and Measuring an Elusive Concept[J]. Housing Policy Debate,2001,12 (4):681-717.
[10]Saeed Z. S., David S., Pere S., et al Urban sprawl pattern and land-use change detection in Yazd, Iran[J]. Habitat International,2011,35 (4):521-528.
[11]Jean-Marie H., Szymon M., Erwin V. K. The adaptive efficiency of land use planning measured by the control of urban sprawl. The cases of the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland[J]. Land Use Policy,2012,29 (4):887-898.
[12]Antonio M. B., Sofia F. F., Daniel K. Is there a double-dividend from anti-sprawl policies?[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2011,61 (2):135-152.
[13]Capozza D. R., Helsley R. The fundamental of land prices and urban growth[J]. Journal of Urban Econmics,1989,26 (3):259-306.
[14]Habibia S., Asadib N. Causes, Results and Methods of Controlling Urban Sprawl[J]. Procedia Engineering,2011,21 133-141.
[15]Nnyaladzi B., Brent Y. Elasticity of capital-land substitution in housing construction, Gaborone, Botswana:Implications for smart growth policy and affordable housing[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,99 (2):77-82.
[16]Alex Anasa, Hyok-Joo Rheeb. Curbing excess sprawl with congestion tolls and urban boundaries[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2006,36 (4):510-541.
[17]付彩芳,任倩,王定毅.国外农业经营与管理[M].北京:中国社会出版社,2006.
[18]陈龙高,杨小艳,陈龙乾浅谈我国土地市场中土地供应的制度缺陷及建议[J].地质技术经济管理,2004,(6)：30-33.
[19]陈霞.国外农村十地城市化的比较研究[J].科技进步与对策,2000,17(6)：112-113.
[20]刘红萍.国外土地利用管制与住宅价格研究综述[J].城市问题,2008,(7)：92-95.
[21]王丽艳,肖伟.国内外城市土地供给调控模式的评述与启示[J].天津城市建设学院学报,2006,12(4)：304-308.
[22]季秀平.土地批租中的问题危害与消解[J].求索,2009,(5)：138-140.
[23]陈学法.土地批租理论与我国土地管理制度变革[J].马克思主义研究,2011,(2)：61-70.
[24]Neng Lai, Ko Wang. Land-Supply Restrictions, Developer Strategies and Housing Policies[J]. INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE REVIEW,1999,2 (1):143-159.
[25]Cheung, Y., Tsang, S. and Mak, S. The Causal Relationships between Residential Property Prices and Rentals in Hong Kong:1982-1992[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1995, (10):23-35.
[26]Chou, W.L. and Shih, Y.C. Hong Kong Housing Markets:Overview, Tenure Choice, and Housing Demand[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1995, (10):7-21.
[27]Dua, P. and Ismail Rashid, A. Foreign Capital Inflows:The Experience of Emerging Markets in Asia[J]. Journal of Asian Business,1996, (12):3,31-45.
[28]Raymond, Y.C. Tse. Housing price, land supply and revenue from land sales[J]. Urban Studies, 1998,35(8):1377-1392.
[29]Hui, Eddie Chi-man. An empirical study of the effects of land supply and lease conditions on the housing market:A case of Hong Kong[J]. Property Management,2004,22 (2):127-154.
[30]Eddie Chi-Man Hui, Vivian Sze-Mun Ho, David Kim-Hin Ho. Land value capture mechanisms in Hong Kong and Singapore:A comparative analysis[J]. Journal of Property Investment & Finance. 2004,22(1):76-100.
[31]Noguchi, Yukio. Land prices and house prices in Japan[A]. In Poterba, Y. N. a. J., National Bureau of Economic Research[C],1994,1991; 11-28.
[32]Okumura, Tsunao. Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan:An Asset Market Approach[J]. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1997,11 (1):27-54.
[33]Lawrence Hannah, Kyung-Hwan Kim, Edwin S. Mills. Land Use Controls and Housing Prices in Korea[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30 (1):147-156.
[34]Ruijue Peng, William C. Wheaton. Effects of Restrictive Land Supply on Housing in Hong Kong:An Econometric Analysis[J]. Journal of Housing Research,1994,5 (2):263-291.
[35]Tilak Abeysinghe, Keen Meng Choy. The Aggregate Consumption Puzzle in Singapore[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,2004,15 (3):563-578.
[36]赵晓,岳安时.世界各国十地产权制度初探[J].财经文摘,2010,(3)：74-76.
[37]Cheshire, Paul. Unpriced Regulatory Risk and the Competition of Rules:Unconsidered Implications of Land Use Planning[J]. Journal of Property Research,2005,22 (2-3):225-244.
[38]David Segal, Philip Srinivasan. THE IMPACT OF SUBURBAN GROWTH RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. HOUSING PRICE INFLATION,1975-1978[J]. Urban Geography,1985,6(1):14-26.
[39]Blackley, Dixie M. The Long-Run Elasticity of New Housing Supply in the United States: Empirical Evidence for 1950 to 1994[J]. THE JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS,1999,18 (1):25-42.
[40]Alastair Jackson, Sarah Monk et al. The Relationship between Land Supply and Housing Production:A Case Study[R]. Cambridge:University of Cambridge. Dept. of Land Economy,1994.
[41]Malpezzi, Stephen. Housing Prices, Externalities, and Regulation in US Metropolitan Areas[J]. Journal of Housing Research,1996,7 (2):209-241.
[42]Stevens, Glenn. House prices to rise further but they're worth it, says RBA. (2012-03-01),
[43]Quigley John M, Rosenthal Larry A. The Effects of Land-Use Regulation on the Price of Housing What Do We Know? What Can We Learn? [J]. Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy,2005,8(1):69-137.
[44]Tracy, Gordon. Planned De velopments in California:Private Communities and Public Life[J]. San Francisco:Public Policy Institute of California,2004, (3):1-81.
[45]Christopher J Mayer, C.Tsuriel Somerville. Land use regulation and new construction[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2000,30 (6):639-662.
[46]Chi-man Hui E, Sze-mun Ho V. Does the planning system affect housing prices? Theory and with evidence from Hong Kong[J]. Habitat International,2003,27 (3):339-359.
[47]Monk, S. Pearce, B. Whitehead, C. Land-use planning, land supply, and house prices[J]. Environment and Planning A,1996,28 (3):495-511.
[48]Whitehead, Sarah Monk and Christine M. E. Evaluating the Economic Impact of Planning Controls in the United Kingdom:Some Implications for Housing[J]. Land Economics,1999,75 (1): 74-93
[49]Cheshire Paul, Sheppard Stephen. The welfare economics of land use planning[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2002,52 (2):242-269.
[50]Chris Leishman, Glen Bramley. A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls[J]. Environment and Planning A,2005,37 (9):1637-1649.
[51]Michelle Norris, Patrick Shiels. Housing Affordability in the Republic of Ireland:Is Planning Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?[J]. Housing Studies,2007,22 (1):45-62.
[52]J. M. Pogodzinski, Tim R. Sass. Zoning and hedonic housing price models[J]. Journal of Housing Economics,1991,1 (3):271-292.
[53]Jonathan H. Mark, Michael A. Goldberg. A study of the impacts of zoning on housing values over time[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1986,20 (3):257-273.
[54]Landis, John D. Do Growth Controls Work? A New Assessment[J]. Journal of the American Planning Association,1992,58 (4):489-508.
[55]Garrett Glasgow, Paul G. Lewis, Max Neiman. Local Development Policies and the Foreclosure Crisis in California:Can Local Policies Hold Back National Tides?[J]. Urban Affairs Review January,2012,1 (48):64-85.
[56]Warner Kee, Molotch Harvey Power to Build How Development Persists Despite Local Controls[J]. Urban Affairs Review,1995, (3):378-406.
[57]A., Charles John. Land Use Controls in the Digital Economy[J]. Policy Insight,1998,106 (6): 4-21.
[58]W., Alonso. Location and Land Use[M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1964.
[59]Muth, R. F. Cities and Housing[M]. Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1969.
[60]Kim J. B., Yi C. H. Ownership Structure, Business Group Affiliation, Listing Status, and Earnings Management:Evidence from Korea[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research,2006,23 (2): 427-464.
[61]A., Smith B. The supply of urban housing[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1976,90 (3): 389-405.
[62]O'sullivan. Urban Economics 7th Revised edition[M]. New York:McGraw Hill Higher Education,2009.
[63]Lt, Morton Consulting Services Pty. Review of Residential Land Supply and Demand Issues[R]. 2008.
[64]Dowall D. E., Landis J. D. Land-Use controls and housing costs:an examination of San Francisco[J]. Areuea Journal,1982, (10):67-93.
[65]Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert. Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2008,64 (2):198-217.
[66]Stuart A. G., Joe P. M., Wascher W. L.. House Price Differentials and Dynamics:Evidence from the Los Angeles and San Francisco Metropolitan Areas[J]. FRBSF E Conomic Review,1999, (1):1-20.
[67]Chen M. C., Patel K. House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality:An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market[J]. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society,1998,1 (1):101-126.
[68]顾朝林,陈振光.中国大都市空间增长形态[J].城市规划,1994,(6)：45-50.
[69]姚十谋,朱英明,陈振光.中国城市群[M].合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,2001.
[70]何流,崔功豪.南京城市空间扩展的特征与机制[J].城市规划汇刊,2000,(6)：56-60.
[71]王宏伟,袁中金,侯爱敏.城市化的开发区模式研究[J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(2)：9-12.
[72]赵燕菁.高速发展与空间演进—深圳城市结构的选择及其评价[J].城市规划,2004,28(6)：32-42.
[73]陈培阳,朱喜钢.基于不同尺度的中国区域经济差异[J].地理学报,2012,67(8)：1085-1097.
[74]许妙苗,朱喜钢.城市建设用地供求结构的区域差异—以浙江省各城市为例[J].浙江师范大学学报：自然科学版,2011,(1)：103-110.
[75]YIN Fang, FENG Min, ZHONG Feng, LI Xiu-xia. Research of Urban Expansion in Siping City Based On Remote Sensing and GIS[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science,2010, (2):112-118.
[76]李晓峰.基于GIS的城市空间扩展研究[D].天津：天津大学,2007.
[77]吕萍,龙双双,刘新平.城市扩张中的十地价格及其作用研究——以北京市为例[A].In2005年海峡两岸土地学术研讨会[C],鸟鲁木齐,2005；286-305.
[78]吕萍,龙双双,刘新平.地价在北京市城市扩张中的作用[J].城市问题,2007, (12)：34-38.
[79]戴双兴.土地财政与地方政府土地利用研究[J].福建师范大学学报,2007,(4)：21-26.
[80]龙奋杰,李一,干轶辉.中国主要城市住宅供给和城市增长实证分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008,(9)：1533-1536.
[81]周昕皓,胡妍.新制度经济学视角下十地财政与城市扩张的相关性分析[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(12)：19-22.
[82]曲福田,石晓平.城市国有十地市场化配置的制度非均衡解释[J].管理世界,2002,(6)：46-53.
[83]刘志玲,李江风.土地供应市场化对城市用地扩展的影响——以武汉市为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2009,26(2)：11-14.
[84]张诗琪,张洪.土地出让政策对房价影响的经济学分析—以35个大中城市为例[J].中国 城市经济,2010,(5)：146-147.
[85]刘琳.房地产市场互动机理研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2002.
[86]郑娟尔.土地供应模式和供应量影响房价的理论探索与实证研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,公共管理学院2008.
[87]张淑娟,刘艳芳.城市土地使用权招标出让的博弈分析[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2005,(1)：28-30.
[88]项卫星,李宏瑾市场供求与房地产市场宏观调控效应—一个理论分析框架及经验分析[J].经济评论,2007,(3)：110-115.
[89]谢岳来,刘洪玉.杭州市土地收购储备实证研究[J].城乡建设,2003,(5)：24-27.
[90]高丽坤,李淑杰,王锡魁,蒋甫玉.土地供应市场与房地产市场关系的研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(1)：25-27.
[91]张清勇.房价和地价的因果关系—基于文献的讨论[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(12)：68-75.
[92]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究模型及中国数据检验[J].财贸经济,2005,(11)：56-63.
[93]温修春,吴阳香.对房价与地价关系之争的思考—基于两种土地产品的比较分析[J].特区经济,2005,(10)：165-167.
[94]沈兵明,罗罡辉.杭州市雨地招标出让博弈实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2003,(10)：30-34.
[95]方宁,青青.中国房价将长期上涨[J].中国对外贸易,2006,(5)：52-54.
[96]宫玉泉.土地供应政策与房地产市场[J].中国物价,2005,(7)：66-68.
[97]张庆佳,林依标.土地有效供应对房价的影响分析[J].福建论坛·人文社会科学版,2008,(4)：22-23.
[98]建设部政策研究中心课题组.怎样认识当前房地产市场形势[J].工程经济,2004,(12)：40-44.
[99]陈超,柳子君,肖辉.从供给视角看我过房地产市场的“两难困境”[J].金融研究,2011,(1)：73-92.
[100]兰宜生.关于增加城市住房土地供应和降低房价的几点思考[J].中国经济问题,2010,(3)：59-62.
[101]吴海洋.当前土地供应调控主要任务[J].城市开发,2005,(6)：17-18.
[102]负小苏.高房价与现有的土地供应方式无关[J].中国经济周刊,2006,(23)：13.
[103]刘禹麒,熊华,罗伟玲.论“招、拍、挂”对地价房价的影响[J].国土资源,2005,(9)：61-63.
[104]贾伟召,张绍良.江苏省徐州市地价与房价关系分析[J].国际资源科技管理,2004,(1)：42-44.
[105]郭坚祥.我国城市土地市场监控研究与实证分析[D].杭州：浙江大学,2004.
[106]王彦美.城市土地供应方式、数量与房价的关联性研究[D]Journal,重庆：西南大学,2011.
[107]丁军.土地供应方式转变对房价的影响[J].特区经济,2010,(12)：283-284.
[108]刘红瑛,吴淑莲.稳定房价要完善土地供应[J].中国土地,2006,(7)：26-27.
[109]严金海.中国的房价与地价：理论、实证和政策分析[J].数量经济技术经济研,2006,(1)：17-26.
[110]文林峰.必须改革土地供应方式[J].沪港经济,2008,(4)：20.
[111]徐建国.房价、地价、地票价三问[J].第一财经日报,2011,(2)：1-3.
[112]刘云生,黄忠.重庆地票交易制度创新面临的几个问题[J].决策导刊,2010,(8)：31-33.
[113]魏峰,郑义,刘孚文.我国农村集体建设用地市场配置机制研究—以重庆地票制度为例[J].现代农业科技,2010,(8)：395-399.
[114]张勇.改革开放后土地使用制度的重要成果—土地政策调控房地产市场的机理分析与评价[J].北京社会科学,2008,(5)：18-22.
[115]于锦坤,李富忠.土地供应政策对房地产的市场的调控关系研究[J].中国房地产业,2011,(4)：16.
[116]汪冲.寡头型一级土地供应、策略互动影响与财政调整—基于282个城市面板数据的动 态空间计[J].财经论丛,2011,(5)：32-37.
[117]汪冲.寡头型国有土地供应、土地信贷融资与财政调整、基于城市面板数据的联立方程空间计量研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2011,13(4)：75-81.
[118]夏子琰.土地政策宏观调控下房地产企业投资决策行为研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,2007.
[119]潘捷,胡晓添,郭忠兴,李炜玮.土地市场对房价的时效影响研究—以广州市为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2006,(2)：37-39.
[120]王姝人,王浩,朱红梅.长沙地价对商品房价的影响[J].城市开发,2010,(5)：45-47.
[121]胡晓添,濮励杰,潘捷.城市土地市场对房价的时空影响研究—基于南京与广州的比较分析[J].江西农业大学学报,2006,28(5)：793-796.
[122]刘艳花,邢佳维,李佳.土地供给政策对房地产影响分析[J].合作经济与科技,2010,(12)：25-26.
[123]张红霞,谭术魁.城市土地市场调控政策工具的时滞研究—以武汉市为例[J].中国土地科学,2010,24(1)：50-55.
[124]吴焕军.土地政策在房地产调控中的政策效果评价[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2011,(6)：23-29.
[125]杨慎.客观看待房价上涨问题[J].中国房地信息,2003,(2)：4-5.
[126]包宗华.谈房价合理回归问题[J].重庆国土房产,2012,(3)：54.
[127]徐艳.北京市房价过高的原因和房价控制[J].城市问题,2002,(1)：42-44.
[128]陈淮,赵路兴,文林峰,等.怎样认识当前房地产市场形势[J].学习月刊,2004,(12)：4.
[129]平新乔,陈敏彦.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势[J].世界经济,2004,(7)：3-10.
[130]郑光辉,黄克龙.房价与地价因果关系研究[J].房地产评估,2004,(10)：17-20.
[131]李和裕,于兵兵.中国特色住房建设和消费模式首次提出[J].金融纵横,2007,(4)：1-3.
[132]李珍贵.房价与地价：争议、评析及实证研究[J].中国土地,2005,(8)：28-29.
[133]鲁礼新.成都市中心城区地价与房价关系分析[J].四川师范大学学报：自然科学版,2002,(1)：91-93.
[134]毛丰付,任国良.政企博弈与中国房价地价的“棘轮效应”[J].经济论坛,2011,(11)：173-177.
[135]况伟大.房地产税、市场结构与房价[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012,(1)：10-19.
[136]况伟大.房产税、地价与房价[J].中国软科学,2012,(4)：25-37.
[137]邹晓云,田彦军.2005年中国城市地价状况分析[J].中国房地信息,2006,(4)：44-47.
[138]孔煜.地价与房价的关系研究述评[J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2010,(2)：56-59.
[139]刘琳,刘洪玉.地价与房价关系的经济学分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(7)：27-30.
[140]魏志国,李耀忠.地价与房价孰因孰果[J].青海国土经略,2005,(3)：12-13.
[141]李永乐,吴群.城市土地市场研究综述[J].经济纵横,2007,(6)：85-87.
[142]吴群,高慧琼.供求关系对大都市商品住宅价格作用机理的分析—以南京市为例[J].中国土地科学,2006,20(2)：51-56.
[143]刘纪远,刘明亮,庄大方.中国近期土地利用变化的空间格局分析[J].中国科学D辑,2002,32(12)：1031-1041.
[144]姜海,曲福田.不同发展阶段建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献与响应[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2009,(1)：70-75.
[145]郭宏宝.财产税、城市扩张与住房价格：基于12个城市面板的经验分析[J].财贸经济,2011,(3)：123-131.
[146]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5)：635-639.
[147]赵可,张安录,李平.城市建设用地扩张的驱动力—基于省际面板数据的分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(8)：1324-1332.
[148]谈明洪,吕昌河.以建成区面积表征的中国城市规模分布[J].地理学报,2003,58(2)：285-293.
[149]张利,雷军,李雪梅,高超,曾玮瑶.1997-2007年中国城市用地扩张特征及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(5)：607-614.
[150]赵可,李平,张安录.经济增长质量对城市建设用地扩张的影响分析——基于全要素生产率视角[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(2)：53-57.
[151]赵可,张安录.城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化关系的计量分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2011,(1)：7-12.
[152]祝昊冉,冯健.经济欠发达地区中心城市空间拓展分析——以南充市为例[J].地理研究,2010,(1)：43-56.
[153]刘涛,曹广忠.城市用地扩张及驱动力研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(8)：927-934.
[154]刘怡君,王丽,牛文元.中国城市经济发展与能源消耗的脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1)：70-77.
[155]朴妍,马克明.北京城市建成区扩张的经济驱动：1978-2002[J].中国国土资源经济,2006,(7)：34-37,48.
[156]宋戈,李静.黑龙江省典型城市合理用地规模确定的实证研究—以大庆市为例[J].经济地理,2007,27(4)：634-648.
[157]彭文甫,周介铭,罗怀良,杨存建,赵景峰利用RS和GIS进行成都市扩张及驱动力分析[J].测绘科学,2011,(5)：79-81.
[158]Smersh, Greg. Spatial Variation in the Price of Housing:An Interactive Approach[D]. Florida: University of South Florida,1996.
[159]S., Mills E. Studies in the structure of the urban economy[M]. Baltimore, MD:The Johns Hopkins Press,1972.
[160]彭俊,陈方正.城市土地价格的静态守恒与动态增长特征研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(6)：838-842.
[161]王茂春.论城市地价空间演化规律及其动因[J].热带地理,1997,(4)：347-352.
[162]吕萍,周滔.土地城市化与价格机制研究[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[163]任荣荣,刘洪玉.土地供应对住房价格的影响机理—对北京市的实证研究[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(10)：40-41.
[164]刘波,刘亦文.房价与供求关系的理论分析与中国经验的实证研究[J].湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,34(6)：65-70.
[165]席枫.我国高房价下的有效供需分析[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(5)：55-56.
[166]张洪力.“土地年租制”与降低房价的分析[J].商场现代化,2006,(7)：327-328.
[167]卢新海.地价与房价的关系及稳定地价的对策[J].统计与决策,2006,(1)：50-52.
[168]张亚明.消费者预期对住房价格影响机理研究[J].企业经济,2010,(8)：5-8.
[169]齐骥.确保保障性住房资金投入和土地供应[J].中华建设,2009,(2)：32.
[170]罗江华,梅昀,陈银蓉 柳州市城市土地利用空间格局演化特征分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2008,(1)：145-148.
[1711刘耀林,刘艳芳,梁勤欧.城市环境分析[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,1994.
[172]闫慧敏,刘纪远,曹明奎中国农田生产力变化的空间格局及地形控制作用[J].地理学报,2007,62(2)：171-180.
[173]战金艳(译),刘纪远战金艳邓祥征.经济改革背景下中国城市用地扩展的时空格局及其驱动因素分析[J]AMBIO—人类环境杂志,2005,34(6)：444-449.
[174]叶舜赞,刘盛和,杜红亮,陆翔兴.浙江省绍兴县的城市化特征及其动力机制探讨[J].城市发展研究,2005,12(6)：11-18.
[175]张新长.基于GIS技术的城市土地利用时空结构演变分析模型研究[D].武汉：武汉大学,2003.
[176]汪涛.基于博弈视角的中国房地产调控政策分析[J].学理论,2011,(9)：22-23.
[177]陈文浩.从利益博弈看房地产调控思路的确定[J].上海房产,2011,(2)：7-10.
[178]王翠兰.房地产市场行政调控中地方政府行为研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2010.
[179]赵玲.“看得见的手”—中国政府行为研究[M].北京：中国人事出版社,1996.
[180]欧阳昌朋.地方政府投资行为的宏观分析[J].当代财经,2006,(1)：39-45.
[181]刘泰洪.委托代理理论下地方政府机会主义行为分析[J].中国石油大学学报：社会科学版,2008,24(1)：41-44.
[182]田甜,李星野.时间序列的分频与建模[J].统计与决策,2010,(09)：15-17.
[183]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.
[184]吴爱或.小波分析在经济问题中的应用[J].经济研究导刊,2012,(21)：1-3.
[185]石林松,张晓芳,孙皓.中国区域经济周期长度的统计检验[J].统计与决策,2011,(18)：4-7.
[186]王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2005.
[187]许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于小波分析的河北平原降水变化规律研究[J].中国科学(D辑),2004,34(12)：1176-1183.
[188]郝志新,郑景云,葛全胜.黄河中下游地区降水变化的周期分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(5)：537-544.
[189]周锋.自贡市房价走势分析—基于马尔可夫转换波动和改进的小波神经网络[J].科技信息,2012,(1)：295-296.
[190]李大营,许伟,陈荣秋.基于粗糙集和小波神经网络模型的房地产价格走势预测研究[J].管理评论,2009,21(11)：18-22.
[191]王婧,田澎.小波神经网络在房地产价格指数预测中的应用[J].计算机仿真,2005,22(7)：96-98.
[192]李颖,胡日东.中国房地产价格与宏观经济波动—基于PVAR模型的研究[J].宏观经济研究,2011,(2)：26-30.
[193]Bramley, Glen. The Impact of Land Use Planning and Tax Subsidies on the Supply and Price of Housing in Britain[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30 (1):5-30.
[194]丰雷,苗田,蒋妍.中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,(2)：33-40.
[195]任超群,张娟锋,贾生华.土地供应量对新建商品房市场的影响—基于35个大中城市的实证研究[J].软科学,2011,25(5)：1-5,10.
[196]张娟锋,贾生华.政府干预、土地供应与价格扭曲[J].当代财经,2007,(7)：21-24.
[197]丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔,威廉·C·惠顿.城市经济学与房地产市场[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2002.
[198]杨柏国.溯源房地产调控失灵—以中央与地方关系为视角[J].南方金融,2010,(3)：5-13.
[199]徐婷,周寅康.我国土地年租制的发展趋势—年租制与增量土地供应[J].资源开发与市场,2006,22(1)：38-41.
[200]杨庆媛,藏波,信桂新.国外公共住房制度及其对我国保障性住房供给的启示[J].重庆国土资源,2011,(4)：21-24.
[201]胡晓添,濮励杰,陈志刚,等土地因素对房价的时效影响实证分析—以南京市为例[J].中国土地科学,2005,(6)：36-39.
[202]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007,(8)：133-142.
[203]王成龙.房价与城市价值关系研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2010.
[204]时筠仑,雷星晖,苏涛永.房价波动与影响因素分析[J].价格理论与实践,2005,(4)：21-22.
[205]洪弋浩,黄汉江.房价影响因素理论研究[J].中国经贸导刊,2010,(2)：72.
[206]孙治香.中国房价的变动规律[D]Journal,厦门：厦门大学,2009.
[207]阀力强.房地产估价的区域因素对房价的影响研究[D].四川：西南交通大学,2004.
[208]郑颖.城市地价与房价的时空演化研究—以杭州市为例[D]Journal,杭州：浙江工业大学,2008.
[209]王雪丽.地价与房价的互动关系研究[D]Journal,西安：西安建筑科技大学,2010.
[210]叶晓东.城市地价与房价关系—2000-2005年中国21个重点城市的实证研究[D]Journal,杭州：浙江大学,2007.
[211]汪洋.政府视野下的高房价问题研究[D].北京：中央民族大学,管理学院2009.
[212]杨冬宁.土地供给因素对住宅价格波动的影响[J].中国房地产,2009,(8)：20-21.
[213]孙波,李惠.地价推动下的房价上涨逻辑与影响[J].商业研究,2010,(5)：160-166.
[214]郭辉.现阶段我国房价上涨的地价因素分析[J].南方经济,2005,(8)：31-33.
[215]白晓云.城市竞争力与房价的相关分析[D].南京：南京财经大学,2008.
[216]吴合镇.重庆市房价与地价动态关系模型研究[D].四川：四川师范大学,地类与资源科学学院2008.
[217]曾向阳,张安录.基于Granger检验的地价与房价关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2006,20(2)：57-61.
[218]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：EViews应用及实例(第2版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2009.
⑤ 《2006年房地产蓝皮书》由中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究中心编撰、社会科学文献出版社出版。
① 详见《2012年中国房地产市场总结和2013年展望》
① 数据来自《房地产蓝皮书：中国房地产发展报告》,社会科学文献出版社出版,主编/牛凤瑞；副主编/李景国,尚教蔚。
③ 丰雷等(2011)的研究成果认为,全国土地供应数量滞后4个季度对房价的影响效果开始弱化。详见丰雷,苗田,蒋妍.中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,(2)：33-40.
[1]Waddell, Paul. UrbanSim:Modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning[J].2002,68 (3):297-314.
[2]Csillag F., Kabos S. Wavelets, boundaries and the analysis of landscape pattern[J], Ecoscience, 2002, (9):177-190.
[3]Bailey T. C., Gatrell A. C. Interactive Spatial Data Analysis[M]. Essex:Longman Group Limited, 1995.
[4]傅伯杰,陈利顶,马克明.景观生态学原理及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2002.
[5]Roberto C., Naria C. G., Paolo R. Urban mobility and urban from patterns of urban expansion[J]. Ecological Economics[J]. Ecological Economics,2002,40 (3):199-211.
[6]Leorey O. M., Nariida C. S. A framework for linking urban from and the social and environmental costs of different Air quality[J]. Environmental Modelling & software,1999, (14): 541-548.
[7]Rueckner, Jan K. B. Urban Sprawl:Diagnosis and Remedies[J]. International Rregional Science Review,2000,23 (2):160-171.
[8]Lopes R., Patricia H. Sprawl in the 1990s:Measurement, distribution, and trends[J]. Urban Affairs Review,2003,38 (3):325-355.
[9]Galster G., Hanson R., Woman H. Wrestling sprawl to the Ground:Defining and Measuring an Elusive Concept[J]. Housing Policy Debate,2001,12 (4):681-717.
[10]Saeed Z. S., David S., Pere S., et al Urban sprawl pattern and land-use change detection in Yazd, Iran[J]. Habitat International,2011,35 (4):521-528.
[11]Jean-Marie H., Szymon M., Erwin V. K. The adaptive efficiency of land use planning measured by the control of urban sprawl. The cases of the Netherlands, Belgium and Poland[J]. Land Use Policy,2012,29 (4):887-898.
[12]Antonio M. B., Sofia F. F., Daniel K. Is there a double-dividend from anti-sprawl policies?[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2011,61 (2):135-152.
[13]Capozza D. R., Helsley R. The fundamental of land prices and urban growth[J]. Journal of Urban Econmics,1989,26 (3):259-306.
[14]Habibia S., Asadib N. Causes, Results and Methods of Controlling Urban Sprawl[J]. Procedia Engineering,2011,21 133-141.
[15]Nnyaladzi B., Brent Y. Elasticity of capital-land substitution in housing construction, Gaborone, Botswana:Implications for smart growth policy and affordable housing[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,99 (2):77-82.
[16]Alex Anasa, Hyok-Joo Rheeb. Curbing excess sprawl with congestion tolls and urban boundaries[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2006,36 (4):510-541.
[17]付彩芳,任倩,王定毅.国外农业经营与管理[M].北京:中国社会出版社,2006.
[18]陈龙高,杨小艳,陈龙乾浅谈我国土地市场中土地供应的制度缺陷及建议[J].地质技术经济管理,2004,(6)：30-33.
[19]陈霞.国外农村十地城市化的比较研究[J].科技进步与对策,2000,17(6)：112-113.
[20]刘红萍.国外土地利用管制与住宅价格研究综述[J].城市问题,2008,(7)：92-95.
[21]王丽艳,肖伟.国内外城市土地供给调控模式的评述与启示[J].天津城市建设学院学报,2006,12(4)：304-308.
[22]季秀平.土地批租中的问题危害与消解[J].求索,2009,(5)：138-140.
[23]陈学法.土地批租理论与我国土地管理制度变革[J].马克思主义研究,2011,(2)：61-70.
[24]Neng Lai, Ko Wang. Land-Supply Restrictions, Developer Strategies and Housing Policies[J]. INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE REVIEW,1999,2 (1):143-159.
[25]Cheung, Y., Tsang, S. and Mak, S. The Causal Relationships between Residential Property Prices and Rentals in Hong Kong:1982-1992[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1995, (10):23-35.
[26]Chou, W.L. and Shih, Y.C. Hong Kong Housing Markets:Overview, Tenure Choice, and Housing Demand[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1995, (10):7-21.
[27]Dua, P. and Ismail Rashid, A. Foreign Capital Inflows:The Experience of Emerging Markets in Asia[J]. Journal of Asian Business,1996, (12):3,31-45.
[28]Raymond, Y.C. Tse. Housing price, land supply and revenue from land sales[J]. Urban Studies, 1998,35(8):1377-1392.
[29]Hui, Eddie Chi-man. An empirical study of the effects of land supply and lease conditions on the housing market:A case of Hong Kong[J]. Property Management,2004,22 (2):127-154.
[30]Eddie Chi-Man Hui, Vivian Sze-Mun Ho, David Kim-Hin Ho. Land value capture mechanisms in Hong Kong and Singapore:A comparative analysis[J]. Journal of Property Investment & Finance. 2004,22(1):76-100.
[31]Noguchi, Yukio. Land prices and house prices in Japan[A]. In Poterba, Y. N. a. J., National Bureau of Economic Research[C],1994,1991; 11-28.
[32]Okumura, Tsunao. Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan:An Asset Market Approach[J]. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,1997,11 (1):27-54.
[33]Lawrence Hannah, Kyung-Hwan Kim, Edwin S. Mills. Land Use Controls and Housing Prices in Korea[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30 (1):147-156.
[34]Ruijue Peng, William C. Wheaton. Effects of Restrictive Land Supply on Housing in Hong Kong:An Econometric Analysis[J]. Journal of Housing Research,1994,5 (2):263-291.
[35]Tilak Abeysinghe, Keen Meng Choy. The Aggregate Consumption Puzzle in Singapore[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,2004,15 (3):563-578.
[36]赵晓,岳安时.世界各国十地产权制度初探[J].财经文摘,2010,(3)：74-76.
[37]Cheshire, Paul. Unpriced Regulatory Risk and the Competition of Rules:Unconsidered Implications of Land Use Planning[J]. Journal of Property Research,2005,22 (2-3):225-244.
[38]David Segal, Philip Srinivasan. THE IMPACT OF SUBURBAN GROWTH RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. HOUSING PRICE INFLATION,1975-1978[J]. Urban Geography,1985,6(1):14-26.
[39]Blackley, Dixie M. The Long-Run Elasticity of New Housing Supply in the United States: Empirical Evidence for 1950 to 1994[J]. THE JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS,1999,18 (1):25-42.
[40]Alastair Jackson, Sarah Monk et al. The Relationship between Land Supply and Housing Production:A Case Study[R]. Cambridge:University of Cambridge. Dept. of Land Economy,1994.
[41]Malpezzi, Stephen. Housing Prices, Externalities, and Regulation in US Metropolitan Areas[J]. Journal of Housing Research,1996,7 (2):209-241.
[42]Stevens, Glenn. House prices to rise further but they're worth it, says RBA. (2012-03-01),
[43]Quigley John M, Rosenthal Larry A. The Effects of Land-Use Regulation on the Price of Housing What Do We Know? What Can We Learn? [J]. Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy,2005,8(1):69-137.
[44]Tracy, Gordon. Planned De velopments in California:Private Communities and Public Life[J]. San Francisco:Public Policy Institute of California,2004, (3):1-81.
[45]Christopher J Mayer, C.Tsuriel Somerville. Land use regulation and new construction[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2000,30 (6):639-662.
[46]Chi-man Hui E, Sze-mun Ho V. Does the planning system affect housing prices? Theory and with evidence from Hong Kong[J]. Habitat International,2003,27 (3):339-359.
[47]Monk, S. Pearce, B. Whitehead, C. Land-use planning, land supply, and house prices[J]. Environment and Planning A,1996,28 (3):495-511.
[48]Whitehead, Sarah Monk and Christine M. E. Evaluating the Economic Impact of Planning Controls in the United Kingdom:Some Implications for Housing[J]. Land Economics,1999,75 (1): 74-93
[49]Cheshire Paul, Sheppard Stephen. The welfare economics of land use planning[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2002,52 (2):242-269.
[50]Chris Leishman, Glen Bramley. A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls[J]. Environment and Planning A,2005,37 (9):1637-1649.
[51]Michelle Norris, Patrick Shiels. Housing Affordability in the Republic of Ireland:Is Planning Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?[J]. Housing Studies,2007,22 (1):45-62.
[52]J. M. Pogodzinski, Tim R. Sass. Zoning and hedonic housing price models[J]. Journal of Housing Economics,1991,1 (3):271-292.
[53]Jonathan H. Mark, Michael A. Goldberg. A study of the impacts of zoning on housing values over time[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1986,20 (3):257-273.
[54]Landis, John D. Do Growth Controls Work? A New Assessment[J]. Journal of the American Planning Association,1992,58 (4):489-508.
[55]Garrett Glasgow, Paul G. Lewis, Max Neiman. Local Development Policies and the Foreclosure Crisis in California:Can Local Policies Hold Back National Tides?[J]. Urban Affairs Review January,2012,1 (48):64-85.
[56]Warner Kee, Molotch Harvey Power to Build How Development Persists Despite Local Controls[J]. Urban Affairs Review,1995, (3):378-406.
[57]A., Charles John. Land Use Controls in the Digital Economy[J]. Policy Insight,1998,106 (6): 4-21.
[58]W., Alonso. Location and Land Use[M]. Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1964.
[59]Muth, R. F. Cities and Housing[M]. Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1969.
[60]Kim J. B., Yi C. H. Ownership Structure, Business Group Affiliation, Listing Status, and Earnings Management:Evidence from Korea[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research,2006,23 (2): 427-464.
[61]A., Smith B. The supply of urban housing[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1976,90 (3): 389-405.
[62]O'sullivan. Urban Economics 7th Revised edition[M]. New York:McGraw Hill Higher Education,2009.
[63]Lt, Morton Consulting Services Pty. Review of Residential Land Supply and Demand Issues[R]. 2008.
[64]Dowall D. E., Landis J. D. Land-Use controls and housing costs:an examination of San Francisco[J]. Areuea Journal,1982, (10):67-93.
[65]Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert. Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2008,64 (2):198-217.
[66]Stuart A. G., Joe P. M., Wascher W. L.. House Price Differentials and Dynamics:Evidence from the Los Angeles and San Francisco Metropolitan Areas[J]. FRBSF E Conomic Review,1999, (1):1-20.
[67]Chen M. C., Patel K. House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality:An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market[J]. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society,1998,1 (1):101-126.
[68]顾朝林,陈振光.中国大都市空间增长形态[J].城市规划,1994,(6)：45-50.
[69]姚十谋,朱英明,陈振光.中国城市群[M].合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社,2001.
[70]何流,崔功豪.南京城市空间扩展的特征与机制[J].城市规划汇刊,2000,(6)：56-60.
[71]王宏伟,袁中金,侯爱敏.城市化的开发区模式研究[J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(2)：9-12.
[72]赵燕菁.高速发展与空间演进—深圳城市结构的选择及其评价[J].城市规划,2004,28(6)：32-42.
[73]陈培阳,朱喜钢.基于不同尺度的中国区域经济差异[J].地理学报,2012,67(8)：1085-1097.
[74]许妙苗,朱喜钢.城市建设用地供求结构的区域差异—以浙江省各城市为例[J].浙江师范大学学报：自然科学版,2011,(1)：103-110.
[75]YIN Fang, FENG Min, ZHONG Feng, LI Xiu-xia. Research of Urban Expansion in Siping City Based On Remote Sensing and GIS[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science,2010, (2):112-118.
[76]李晓峰.基于GIS的城市空间扩展研究[D].天津：天津大学,2007.
[77]吕萍,龙双双,刘新平.城市扩张中的十地价格及其作用研究——以北京市为例[A].In2005年海峡两岸土地学术研讨会[C],鸟鲁木齐,2005；286-305.
[78]吕萍,龙双双,刘新平.地价在北京市城市扩张中的作用[J].城市问题,2007, (12)：34-38.
[79]戴双兴.土地财政与地方政府土地利用研究[J].福建师范大学学报,2007,(4)：21-26.
[80]龙奋杰,李一,干轶辉.中国主要城市住宅供给和城市增长实证分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008,(9)：1533-1536.
[81]周昕皓,胡妍.新制度经济学视角下十地财政与城市扩张的相关性分析[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(12)：19-22.
[82]曲福田,石晓平.城市国有十地市场化配置的制度非均衡解释[J].管理世界,2002,(6)：46-53.
[83]刘志玲,李江风.土地供应市场化对城市用地扩展的影响——以武汉市为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2009,26(2)：11-14.
[84]张诗琪,张洪.土地出让政策对房价影响的经济学分析—以35个大中城市为例[J].中国 城市经济,2010,(5)：146-147.
[85]刘琳.房地产市场互动机理研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2002.
[86]郑娟尔.土地供应模式和供应量影响房价的理论探索与实证研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,公共管理学院2008.
[87]张淑娟,刘艳芳.城市土地使用权招标出让的博弈分析[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2005,(1)：28-30.
[88]项卫星,李宏瑾市场供求与房地产市场宏观调控效应—一个理论分析框架及经验分析[J].经济评论,2007,(3)：110-115.
[89]谢岳来,刘洪玉.杭州市土地收购储备实证研究[J].城乡建设,2003,(5)：24-27.
[90]高丽坤,李淑杰,王锡魁,蒋甫玉.土地供应市场与房地产市场关系的研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(1)：25-27.
[91]张清勇.房价和地价的因果关系—基于文献的讨论[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(12)：68-75.
[92]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究模型及中国数据检验[J].财贸经济,2005,(11)：56-63.
[93]温修春,吴阳香.对房价与地价关系之争的思考—基于两种土地产品的比较分析[J].特区经济,2005,(10)：165-167.
[94]沈兵明,罗罡辉.杭州市雨地招标出让博弈实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2003,(10)：30-34.
[95]方宁,青青.中国房价将长期上涨[J].中国对外贸易,2006,(5)：52-54.
[96]宫玉泉.土地供应政策与房地产市场[J].中国物价,2005,(7)：66-68.
[97]张庆佳,林依标.土地有效供应对房价的影响分析[J].福建论坛·人文社会科学版,2008,(4)：22-23.
[98]建设部政策研究中心课题组.怎样认识当前房地产市场形势[J].工程经济,2004,(12)：40-44.
[99]陈超,柳子君,肖辉.从供给视角看我过房地产市场的“两难困境”[J].金融研究,2011,(1)：73-92.
[100]兰宜生.关于增加城市住房土地供应和降低房价的几点思考[J].中国经济问题,2010,(3)：59-62.
[101]吴海洋.当前土地供应调控主要任务[J].城市开发,2005,(6)：17-18.
[102]负小苏.高房价与现有的土地供应方式无关[J].中国经济周刊,2006,(23)：13.
[103]刘禹麒,熊华,罗伟玲.论“招、拍、挂”对地价房价的影响[J].国土资源,2005,(9)：61-63.
[104]贾伟召,张绍良.江苏省徐州市地价与房价关系分析[J].国际资源科技管理,2004,(1)：42-44.
[105]郭坚祥.我国城市土地市场监控研究与实证分析[D].杭州：浙江大学,2004.
[106]王彦美.城市土地供应方式、数量与房价的关联性研究[D]Journal,重庆：西南大学,2011.
[107]丁军.土地供应方式转变对房价的影响[J].特区经济,2010,(12)：283-284.
[108]刘红瑛,吴淑莲.稳定房价要完善土地供应[J].中国土地,2006,(7)：26-27.
[109]严金海.中国的房价与地价：理论、实证和政策分析[J].数量经济技术经济研,2006,(1)：17-26.
[110]文林峰.必须改革土地供应方式[J].沪港经济,2008,(4)：20.
[111]徐建国.房价、地价、地票价三问[J].第一财经日报,2011,(2)：1-3.
[112]刘云生,黄忠.重庆地票交易制度创新面临的几个问题[J].决策导刊,2010,(8)：31-33.
[113]魏峰,郑义,刘孚文.我国农村集体建设用地市场配置机制研究—以重庆地票制度为例[J].现代农业科技,2010,(8)：395-399.
[114]张勇.改革开放后土地使用制度的重要成果—土地政策调控房地产市场的机理分析与评价[J].北京社会科学,2008,(5)：18-22.
[115]于锦坤,李富忠.土地供应政策对房地产的市场的调控关系研究[J].中国房地产业,2011,(4)：16.
[116]汪冲.寡头型一级土地供应、策略互动影响与财政调整—基于282个城市面板数据的动 态空间计[J].财经论丛,2011,(5)：32-37.
[117]汪冲.寡头型国有土地供应、土地信贷融资与财政调整、基于城市面板数据的联立方程空间计量研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2011,13(4)：75-81.
[118]夏子琰.土地政策宏观调控下房地产企业投资决策行为研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,2007.
[119]潘捷,胡晓添,郭忠兴,李炜玮.土地市场对房价的时效影响研究—以广州市为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2006,(2)：37-39.
[120]王姝人,王浩,朱红梅.长沙地价对商品房价的影响[J].城市开发,2010,(5)：45-47.
[121]胡晓添,濮励杰,潘捷.城市土地市场对房价的时空影响研究—基于南京与广州的比较分析[J].江西农业大学学报,2006,28(5)：793-796.
[122]刘艳花,邢佳维,李佳.土地供给政策对房地产影响分析[J].合作经济与科技,2010,(12)：25-26.
[123]张红霞,谭术魁.城市土地市场调控政策工具的时滞研究—以武汉市为例[J].中国土地科学,2010,24(1)：50-55.
[124]吴焕军.土地政策在房地产调控中的政策效果评价[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2011,(6)：23-29.
[125]杨慎.客观看待房价上涨问题[J].中国房地信息,2003,(2)：4-5.
[126]包宗华.谈房价合理回归问题[J].重庆国土房产,2012,(3)：54.
[127]徐艳.北京市房价过高的原因和房价控制[J].城市问题,2002,(1)：42-44.
[128]陈淮,赵路兴,文林峰,等.怎样认识当前房地产市场形势[J].学习月刊,2004,(12)：4.
[129]平新乔,陈敏彦.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势[J].世界经济,2004,(7)：3-10.
[130]郑光辉,黄克龙.房价与地价因果关系研究[J].房地产评估,2004,(10)：17-20.
[131]李和裕,于兵兵.中国特色住房建设和消费模式首次提出[J].金融纵横,2007,(4)：1-3.
[132]李珍贵.房价与地价：争议、评析及实证研究[J].中国土地,2005,(8)：28-29.
[133]鲁礼新.成都市中心城区地价与房价关系分析[J].四川师范大学学报：自然科学版,2002,(1)：91-93.
[134]毛丰付,任国良.政企博弈与中国房价地价的“棘轮效应”[J].经济论坛,2011,(11)：173-177.
[135]况伟大.房地产税、市场结构与房价[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012,(1)：10-19.
[136]况伟大.房产税、地价与房价[J].中国软科学,2012,(4)：25-37.
[137]邹晓云,田彦军.2005年中国城市地价状况分析[J].中国房地信息,2006,(4)：44-47.
[138]孔煜.地价与房价的关系研究述评[J].重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2010,(2)：56-59.
[139]刘琳,刘洪玉.地价与房价关系的经济学分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(7)：27-30.
[140]魏志国,李耀忠.地价与房价孰因孰果[J].青海国土经略,2005,(3)：12-13.
[141]李永乐,吴群.城市土地市场研究综述[J].经济纵横,2007,(6)：85-87.
[142]吴群,高慧琼.供求关系对大都市商品住宅价格作用机理的分析—以南京市为例[J].中国土地科学,2006,20(2)：51-56.
[143]刘纪远,刘明亮,庄大方.中国近期土地利用变化的空间格局分析[J].中国科学D辑,2002,32(12)：1031-1041.
[144]姜海,曲福田.不同发展阶段建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献与响应[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2009,(1)：70-75.
[145]郭宏宝.财产税、城市扩张与住房价格：基于12个城市面板的经验分析[J].财贸经济,2011,(3)：123-131.
[146]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5)：635-639.
[147]赵可,张安录,李平.城市建设用地扩张的驱动力—基于省际面板数据的分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(8)：1324-1332.
[148]谈明洪,吕昌河.以建成区面积表征的中国城市规模分布[J].地理学报,2003,58(2)：285-293.
[149]张利,雷军,李雪梅,高超,曾玮瑶.1997-2007年中国城市用地扩张特征及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(5)：607-614.
[150]赵可,李平,张安录.经济增长质量对城市建设用地扩张的影响分析——基于全要素生产率视角[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(2)：53-57.
[151]赵可,张安录.城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化关系的计量分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2011,(1)：7-12.
[152]祝昊冉,冯健.经济欠发达地区中心城市空间拓展分析——以南充市为例[J].地理研究,2010,(1)：43-56.
[153]刘涛,曹广忠.城市用地扩张及驱动力研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(8)：927-934.
[154]刘怡君,王丽,牛文元.中国城市经济发展与能源消耗的脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1)：70-77.
[155]朴妍,马克明.北京城市建成区扩张的经济驱动：1978-2002[J].中国国土资源经济,2006,(7)：34-37,48.
[156]宋戈,李静.黑龙江省典型城市合理用地规模确定的实证研究—以大庆市为例[J].经济地理,2007,27(4)：634-648.
[157]彭文甫,周介铭,罗怀良,杨存建,赵景峰利用RS和GIS进行成都市扩张及驱动力分析[J].测绘科学,2011,(5)：79-81.
[158]Smersh, Greg. Spatial Variation in the Price of Housing:An Interactive Approach[D]. Florida: University of South Florida,1996.
[159]S., Mills E. Studies in the structure of the urban economy[M]. Baltimore, MD:The Johns Hopkins Press,1972.
[160]彭俊,陈方正.城市土地价格的静态守恒与动态增长特征研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(6)：838-842.
[161]王茂春.论城市地价空间演化规律及其动因[J].热带地理,1997,(4)：347-352.
[162]吕萍,周滔.土地城市化与价格机制研究[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[163]任荣荣,刘洪玉.土地供应对住房价格的影响机理—对北京市的实证研究[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(10)：40-41.
[164]刘波,刘亦文.房价与供求关系的理论分析与中国经验的实证研究[J].湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,34(6)：65-70.
[165]席枫.我国高房价下的有效供需分析[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(5)：55-56.
[166]张洪力.“土地年租制”与降低房价的分析[J].商场现代化,2006,(7)：327-328.
[167]卢新海.地价与房价的关系及稳定地价的对策[J].统计与决策,2006,(1)：50-52.
[168]张亚明.消费者预期对住房价格影响机理研究[J].企业经济,2010,(8)：5-8.
[169]齐骥.确保保障性住房资金投入和土地供应[J].中华建设,2009,(2)：32.
[170]罗江华,梅昀,陈银蓉 柳州市城市土地利用空间格局演化特征分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2008,(1)：145-148.
[1711刘耀林,刘艳芳,梁勤欧.城市环境分析[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,1994.
[172]闫慧敏,刘纪远,曹明奎中国农田生产力变化的空间格局及地形控制作用[J].地理学报,2007,62(2)：171-180.
[173]战金艳(译),刘纪远战金艳邓祥征.经济改革背景下中国城市用地扩展的时空格局及其驱动因素分析[J]AMBIO—人类环境杂志,2005,34(6)：444-449.
[174]叶舜赞,刘盛和,杜红亮,陆翔兴.浙江省绍兴县的城市化特征及其动力机制探讨[J].城市发展研究,2005,12(6)：11-18.
[175]张新长.基于GIS技术的城市土地利用时空结构演变分析模型研究[D].武汉：武汉大学,2003.
[176]汪涛.基于博弈视角的中国房地产调控政策分析[J].学理论,2011,(9)：22-23.
[177]陈文浩.从利益博弈看房地产调控思路的确定[J].上海房产,2011,(2)：7-10.
[178]王翠兰.房地产市场行政调控中地方政府行为研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2010.
[179]赵玲.“看得见的手”—中国政府行为研究[M].北京：中国人事出版社,1996.
[180]欧阳昌朋.地方政府投资行为的宏观分析[J].当代财经,2006,(1)：39-45.
[181]刘泰洪.委托代理理论下地方政府机会主义行为分析[J].中国石油大学学报：社会科学版,2008,24(1)：41-44.
[182]田甜,李星野.时间序列的分频与建模[J].统计与决策,2010,(09)：15-17.
[183]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京：气象出版社,2007.
[184]吴爱或.小波分析在经济问题中的应用[J].经济研究导刊,2012,(21)：1-3.
[185]石林松,张晓芳,孙皓.中国区域经济周期长度的统计检验[J].统计与决策,2011,(18)：4-7.
[186]王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2005.
[187]许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于小波分析的河北平原降水变化规律研究[J].中国科学(D辑),2004,34(12)：1176-1183.
[188]郝志新,郑景云,葛全胜.黄河中下游地区降水变化的周期分析[J].地理学报,2007,62(5)：537-544.
[189]周锋.自贡市房价走势分析—基于马尔可夫转换波动和改进的小波神经网络[J].科技信息,2012,(1)：295-296.
[190]李大营,许伟,陈荣秋.基于粗糙集和小波神经网络模型的房地产价格走势预测研究[J].管理评论,2009,21(11)：18-22.
[191]王婧,田澎.小波神经网络在房地产价格指数预测中的应用[J].计算机仿真,2005,22(7)：96-98.
[192]李颖,胡日东.中国房地产价格与宏观经济波动—基于PVAR模型的研究[J].宏观经济研究,2011,(2)：26-30.
[193]Bramley, Glen. The Impact of Land Use Planning and Tax Subsidies on the Supply and Price of Housing in Britain[J]. Urban Studies,1993,30 (1):5-30.
[194]丰雷,苗田,蒋妍.中国土地供应管制对住宅价格波动的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,(2)：33-40.
[195]任超群,张娟锋,贾生华.土地供应量对新建商品房市场的影响—基于35个大中城市的实证研究[J].软科学,2011,25(5)：1-5,10.
[196]张娟锋,贾生华.政府干预、土地供应与价格扭曲[J].当代财经,2007,(7)：21-24.
[197]丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔,威廉·C·惠顿.城市经济学与房地产市场[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2002.
[198]杨柏国.溯源房地产调控失灵—以中央与地方关系为视角[J].南方金融,2010,(3)：5-13.
[199]徐婷,周寅康.我国土地年租制的发展趋势—年租制与增量土地供应[J].资源开发与市场,2006,22(1)：38-41.
[200]杨庆媛,藏波,信桂新.国外公共住房制度及其对我国保障性住房供给的启示[J].重庆国土资源,2011,(4)：21-24.
[201]胡晓添,濮励杰,陈志刚,等土地因素对房价的时效影响实证分析—以南京市为例[J].中国土地科学,2005,(6)：36-39.
[202]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007,(8)：133-142.
[203]王成龙.房价与城市价值关系研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2010.
[204]时筠仑,雷星晖,苏涛永.房价波动与影响因素分析[J].价格理论与实践,2005,(4)：21-22.
[205]洪弋浩,黄汉江.房价影响因素理论研究[J].中国经贸导刊,2010,(2)：72.
[206]孙治香.中国房价的变动规律[D]Journal,厦门：厦门大学,2009.
[207]阀力强.房地产估价的区域因素对房价的影响研究[D].四川：西南交通大学,2004.
[208]郑颖.城市地价与房价的时空演化研究—以杭州市为例[D]Journal,杭州：浙江工业大学,2008.
[209]王雪丽.地价与房价的互动关系研究[D]Journal,西安：西安建筑科技大学,2010.
[210]叶晓东.城市地价与房价关系—2000-2005年中国21个重点城市的实证研究[D]Journal,杭州：浙江大学,2007.
[211]汪洋.政府视野下的高房价问题研究[D].北京：中央民族大学,管理学院2009.
[212]杨冬宁.土地供给因素对住宅价格波动的影响[J].中国房地产,2009,(8)：20-21.
[213]孙波,李惠.地价推动下的房价上涨逻辑与影响[J].商业研究,2010,(5)：160-166.
[214]郭辉.现阶段我国房价上涨的地价因素分析[J].南方经济,2005,(8)：31-33.
[215]白晓云.城市竞争力与房价的相关分析[D].南京：南京财经大学,2008.
[216]吴合镇.重庆市房价与地价动态关系模型研究[D].四川：四川师范大学,地类与资源科学学院2008.
[217]曾向阳,张安录.基于Granger检验的地价与房价关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2006,20(2)：57-61.
[218]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：EViews应用及实例(第2版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2009.