吉林省生猪产业发展研究
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摘要
生猪产业在新中国经过60多年的发展,一直在畜牧业中占主导地位,生猪产业的健康发展是解决农民增收的重要途径之一,也是保证居民肉食消费的重要来源之一。吉林省作为粮食大省,能够为生猪产业的发展提供丰富的精饲料资源,但是吉林省生猪出栏量和猪肉产量占全国的比重一直极低,总量上没有发展优势,与全国的其他省份相比,位居中下游；并且吉林省的生猪产品加工深度不够,特色不足,缺乏市场竞争力。进入21世纪以来,吉林省的生猪生产一直在波动中增长,特别是2005年以来,吉林省的生猪生产波动频繁,影响了生猪产业的稳定发展。吉林省的生猪产业通过何种途径才能稳定发展,如何应对市场需求的变化,正是吉林省生猪产业发展所面临的关键问题。
论文主要结合吉林省生猪产业发展的现状,运用经济理论结合经济分析方法,通过深入的调查研究,对吉林省生猪产业的生产、加工、流通等各个环节进行全面、系统的研究与分析,同时分析吉林省生猪产业的产业组织模式,并且分析吉林省生猪产业发展过程中,养殖、加工及流通各个环节中存在的问题,论证问题产生的原因；测定吉林省生猪饲养的适度规模,探寻促进吉林省生猪产业稳定有效发展的途径。
本文共分九章,主要研究内容和结论如下：
第一章、第二章为本文的导论、文献评述和理论基础部分。阐明本文的选题依据、研究的主要内容、主要研究方法和技术路线等；对国内外相关研究进行评述,界定论文中涉及的基本概念和研究范围,并对本文所依据的理论基础进行系统阐述。
第三章阐述和分析了中国生猪产业发展现状,从中国生猪产业的生产、价格等方面入手,利用已有的研究成果、统计资料,分析中国生猪产业的生产、价格、生产方式、市场结构与区域布局等发展情况。通过分析,发现中国生猪生产和价格一直在波动中增长,进入21世纪以后波动幅度增大,尤其是2005年10月以后,波动频繁且波动幅度增大。
第四章运用SWOT分析法对吉林省生猪产业的发展现状进行分析,分析了吉林省生猪产业发展的优势、劣势、机遇与威胁；同时回顾了吉林省生猪产业的发展历程。通过分析指出吉林省在发展生猪产业的过程中要抓住机遇,发挥产业具有的优势,采取适当的、合理的措施避免劣势,从而降低面临的威胁,使吉林省的生猪产业健康、稳定地发展。
第五章对吉林省生猪生产环节的投入产出情况进行实证分析。利用对比分析法,分析吉林省各种生猪饲养规模的投入产出情况；利用C-D生产函数建立生猪的生产函数,测定吉林省各种饲养规模的规模报酬情况；利用灰色局势法和成本弹性法测定吉林省生猪的适度饲养规模。分析结果表明：分散饲养是处于规模报酬递减阶段,而其他三种规模处于规模报酬递增阶段；通过比较分析三种饲养规模的规模报酬指数,发现大规模饲养所获得的规模报酬最大。通过上述实证分析发现,吉林省生猪产业生产环节的主要影响因素包括：生产规模小、生产成本持续上涨、抵御市场风险能力弱、抵御疫病能力弱、猪肉质量标准相对较低等。针对上述影响因素提出稳定吉林省生猪产业生产环节的对策和建议。即：加强基层动物疫病防控和科技推广服务体系建设；推进生猪生产适度规模化。利用灰色局势法选择吉林省生猪生产环节的适度规模,测定结果显示大规模为吉林省生猪生产环节的适宜生产规模,而根据调研数据利用成本弹性法测定吉林省适宜生猪饲养的区间段为年出栏量为1000-1500头。
第六章对吉林省生猪加工业进行分析。从吉林省的生猪加工企业的现状入手,发现吉林省生猪加工企业存在如下问题：中小规模企业占主导、规模以上生猪产品加工企业的实际加工能力不足、加工深度不够等问题。上述问题产生的制约因素主要在于：吉林省分散和小规模的生猪饲养方式使原料猪标准化程度低、生猪产品加工业的技术创新意识差并且技术创新能力弱、生猪产品加工业的税费负担大等方面。为了促进吉林省生猪产品加工业的健康有序发展,需要推进生猪产品加工业的规模化程度；以市场为导向,适度扩大规模以上生猪产品加工业的实际加工能力；增强生猪加工企业的技术创新能力,延长加工产业链条,增加加工品种,增加产品附加值；增强生猪产品加工企业与养殖户的关联度。
第七章是对吉林省生猪产业的市场与流通进行分析。通过分析吉林省生猪产品市场情况发现,吉林省生猪产品的进出口量极小,人均猪肉消费量呈波动性递增态势,其中农村居民的人均猪肉消费量增长速度高于城镇居民。目前吉林省生猪市场和流通存在着如下问题：生猪产品市场体系不完善,交易规模小；吉林省生猪产品流通过程中的流通费用较大；生猪产品源头难以追溯,使质量安全难以保证；分散、小规模饲养的生猪流通渠道长,抵御市场风险能力弱；生猪期货交易发展缓慢,不适应现代市场经济的发展。针对上述问题吉林省应该不断提高生猪产品质量,创生猪产品的国际名牌；减少生猪产品的流通环节,优化流通渠道；加快吉林省生猪市场体系建设,不断推进地区集中性市场建设；创新交易模式,加强信息化、网络一体化建设,促进生猪期货交易的发展。
第八章分析吉林省生猪产业组织模式,通过分析发现：各种类型的生猪产业组织模式在运作的过程中存在产业组织模式链条短而使组织效率低、在组织方式上存在缺陷、在组织结构上存在内部结构不均衡等问题；而政府在生猪产业组织模式运作过程中往往会出现角色定位不正确的问题。针对生猪产业组织模式存在的上述问题,为了优化生猪产业组织模式,要促进生猪产业组织模式的联结链条完整性,提高组织效率；实现生猪产业组织模式的内部结构均衡；与此同时,要在政府的引导下,促进生猪产业组织模式的创新。
第九章为本文的结论与建议部分。通过全文的分析与研究,得出如下结论：中国生猪产业已经进入到了一个新的发展时期；吉林省在生猪饲养规模上适合大规模饲养；吉林省的生猪加工业处于粗加工向深加工的过渡时期；吉林省生猪产业的发展越来越受到国内市场的制约。在对论文的研究结论进行总结的基础上,提出了促进生猪产业稳定发展的政策建议,为生猪产业相关参与主体及政府相关部门决策的制定提供参考。
The hog industry has been the dominant part of animal husbandry during its60-year development in new China. The healthy development of hog industry has been an important way to increase the income of peasants, and to ensure the meat consumption of residents. As a major producer of grain, Jilin province could provide abundant concentrated feed for the development of hog industry. However, on the one hand, the market volume of hogs and the pork production in Jinlin province both occupy a low proportion throughout the whole country and the total level of hog industry in Jilin province which lacks of advantages is in the middle and lower position of all. On the other hand, the depth of hog product processing is not enough, which lacks of features and market competitiveness. Since21st century, the hog production in Jilin province has been increased with fluctuations, especially since2005, the hog production has fluctuated frequently, which has affected the stability of the development of hog industry. The key problems of hog industry in Jilin province are how to get stable development and how to adjust to the market demand.
This paper, completely and symmetrically, studies and analyzes the production, processing, distribution and other links of hog industry in Jilin province on the basis of the present situation of the development of hog industry in Jilin province. It also analyzes the industrial organization modes of hog industry and the existing problems of cultivation, production and distribution during the developing process of the hog industry in Jilin province, and then demonstrates the reasons. Finally it measures the moderate feeding scale of hogs and searches for approaches to promote the stable and effective development of hog industry in Jilin province.
This paper consists of nine chapters, the main contents and conclusions are as follows:
The first two chapters, which are the basic parts of this paper, clarify the basis of the selected title, the main contents, research methods and technical routes and make comments on relevant national and international studies. These two chapters also define the basic concepts involved in this paper and the research scope, and make a systematic exposition of the basic theories.
Chapter3describes and analyzes the current situation of the development of hog industry in China from production, price and some other aspects, and utilizes the existing research results, statistics to analyze the production, price, mode, market structure and regional distribution of hog industry in China. According to these analyses, we find the fluctuations in the growth of the price and hog production, and the waves have been enlarged since21st century. Especially from October,2005, the waves have fluctuated frequently.
Chapter4takes the SWOT method to analyze the current situation, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the development of hog industry in Jilin province, Meanwhile it reviews the developing history of hog industry in Jilin province. Based on the analyses, this paper points out that we need to seize the developing opportunities, use the advantages of the industry and take appropriate and reasonable measures to avoid the disadvantages, so that we can reduce the threats we face and keep the healthy and stable development of hog industry in Jilin province.
Chapter5makes empirical analysis of the input-output situation of hog production in Jilin province. This chapter analyzes the input-output situation of all hog feeding scales by the contrast method, and uses c-d production function to establish hog production function to measure the scale pay of all hog feeding scales in Jilin province. By using the grey situation method and cost flexibility method, this chapter measures the moderate scale of hogs raised in Jilin province. The results show that:the scattered bred mode is in the stage of diminishing returns to scale, and other three kinds of modes are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. Through the comparative analysis of the scale paymet index of these three scales, we find that the raising on a large scale will get the most reward. Through the above empirical analysis, we find that the main influence factors of hog industry in Jilin province are the small production scale, the increasing production costs, the weak ability to resist market risks and diseases, the low standard of pork quality and so on. In view of the above factors, we put forward effective countermeasures and suggestions to keep the stability of hog industry in Jilin province. We need to strengthen the construction of the primary animal disease prevention system and the science and technology promotion system, and to promote the moderate-scale hog production. This chapter uses the grey situation method to choose an appropriate scale of hog production, the results show that the large scale mode is feasible for hog production in Jilin province, and then it uses the cost flexibility method on the basis of the investigation data and finds that the appropriate hog market volume in Jilin province is1000-1500head a year.
Chapter6mainly analyzes the hog processing industry in Jilin province. By studying the current situation of the hog processing enterprises in Jilin province, we find the problems that exist in hog processing enterprises in Jilin province. The first is that the small and medium enterprises are still in the dominant position. The second is that the practical processing ability of the hog product processing enterprises above the scale is inadequate and the depth of the processing is not enough. The restrictive factors that caused the above problems are the low standard of hog production caused by the scattered and small feeding scales, the weakness in technological innovation and the high tax of hog production in Jilin province. In order to keep the healthy and orderly development of hog processing industry in Jilin province, we should promote the degree of the scale, take the market as the guidance to moderately expand the practical processing ability of the hog product processing enterprises above the scale, enhance the technological innovation ability of the hog processing enterprises, prolong the chain of the processing industry, increase the processing varieties and the value of the products, and strengthen the correlation between the product processing enterprises and the hog householders.
Chapter7analyzes the market and circulation of the hog industry in Jilin province. By the analysis of the conditions of the hog product markets in Jilin province, we find a small quantity of the export and import of hog products, and the per capita pork consumption continues to increase with fluctuations, and the per capita pork consumption of rural residents is growing even faster than that of urban residents. At present, the problems of the hog market and circulation in Jilin province are the unsound system of hog product market, the small scale of the trade, the high costs in the circulation of the hog products in Jilin province, the difficulties of tracing the source of the hog products which guarantees the safety of the quality, the long hog distribution channels of the scattered and small feeding scales, the weakness to resist the risks, the slow development of the futures trading of the hog products. In view of the above questions, Jilin province should improve the quality of hog products, create international famous brands of hog products, reduce the circulations of the hog products, speed up the development of the hog market system in Jilin province, and constantly promote the construction of the regional concentration market, make new trade patterns, enhance the integration of the information and the network, and promote the futures trading development of the hogs.
Chapter8makes analysis of the hog industrial organization modes in Jilin province. According to the study, we find that all types of hog industrial organization modes operate with the same problems, such as the low efficiency caused by the short chains of the industrial organization modes, the defects existed in the structure of the organization, the imbalance of the internal structure, and the wrong position of the government in the process of the operation of the hog industrial organization modes. In terms of the above problems, we should promote the integrity of the hog industrial organization modes and improve the organizational efficiency to optimize the hog industry organization modes, and achieve the internal equilibrium of the structures of the hog industrial organization modes, and at the same time, we should promote the innovation of the hog industrial organization modes with the government's guidance.
Chapter9is the conclusions and suggestions of this paper. Through the analysis and research, we draw the conclusion that the hog industry in China has entered a new developing period, the large feeding scale is suitable for the hog production in Jilin province, the hog industry in Jilin province is in the transitional period from rough to deep processing, the hog industry development in Jilin province is increasingly restricted by domestic market factors. On the basis of the summary of the study, the paper finally proposes the policy recommendations as references for the decisions made by the related participation bodies and relevant government departments to promote the stable development of the hog industry.
论文主要结合吉林省生猪产业发展的现状,运用经济理论结合经济分析方法,通过深入的调查研究,对吉林省生猪产业的生产、加工、流通等各个环节进行全面、系统的研究与分析,同时分析吉林省生猪产业的产业组织模式,并且分析吉林省生猪产业发展过程中,养殖、加工及流通各个环节中存在的问题,论证问题产生的原因；测定吉林省生猪饲养的适度规模,探寻促进吉林省生猪产业稳定有效发展的途径。
本文共分九章,主要研究内容和结论如下：
第一章、第二章为本文的导论、文献评述和理论基础部分。阐明本文的选题依据、研究的主要内容、主要研究方法和技术路线等；对国内外相关研究进行评述,界定论文中涉及的基本概念和研究范围,并对本文所依据的理论基础进行系统阐述。
第三章阐述和分析了中国生猪产业发展现状,从中国生猪产业的生产、价格等方面入手,利用已有的研究成果、统计资料,分析中国生猪产业的生产、价格、生产方式、市场结构与区域布局等发展情况。通过分析,发现中国生猪生产和价格一直在波动中增长,进入21世纪以后波动幅度增大,尤其是2005年10月以后,波动频繁且波动幅度增大。
第四章运用SWOT分析法对吉林省生猪产业的发展现状进行分析,分析了吉林省生猪产业发展的优势、劣势、机遇与威胁；同时回顾了吉林省生猪产业的发展历程。通过分析指出吉林省在发展生猪产业的过程中要抓住机遇,发挥产业具有的优势,采取适当的、合理的措施避免劣势,从而降低面临的威胁,使吉林省的生猪产业健康、稳定地发展。
第五章对吉林省生猪生产环节的投入产出情况进行实证分析。利用对比分析法,分析吉林省各种生猪饲养规模的投入产出情况；利用C-D生产函数建立生猪的生产函数,测定吉林省各种饲养规模的规模报酬情况；利用灰色局势法和成本弹性法测定吉林省生猪的适度饲养规模。分析结果表明：分散饲养是处于规模报酬递减阶段,而其他三种规模处于规模报酬递增阶段；通过比较分析三种饲养规模的规模报酬指数,发现大规模饲养所获得的规模报酬最大。通过上述实证分析发现,吉林省生猪产业生产环节的主要影响因素包括：生产规模小、生产成本持续上涨、抵御市场风险能力弱、抵御疫病能力弱、猪肉质量标准相对较低等。针对上述影响因素提出稳定吉林省生猪产业生产环节的对策和建议。即：加强基层动物疫病防控和科技推广服务体系建设；推进生猪生产适度规模化。利用灰色局势法选择吉林省生猪生产环节的适度规模,测定结果显示大规模为吉林省生猪生产环节的适宜生产规模,而根据调研数据利用成本弹性法测定吉林省适宜生猪饲养的区间段为年出栏量为1000-1500头。
第六章对吉林省生猪加工业进行分析。从吉林省的生猪加工企业的现状入手,发现吉林省生猪加工企业存在如下问题：中小规模企业占主导、规模以上生猪产品加工企业的实际加工能力不足、加工深度不够等问题。上述问题产生的制约因素主要在于：吉林省分散和小规模的生猪饲养方式使原料猪标准化程度低、生猪产品加工业的技术创新意识差并且技术创新能力弱、生猪产品加工业的税费负担大等方面。为了促进吉林省生猪产品加工业的健康有序发展,需要推进生猪产品加工业的规模化程度；以市场为导向,适度扩大规模以上生猪产品加工业的实际加工能力；增强生猪加工企业的技术创新能力,延长加工产业链条,增加加工品种,增加产品附加值；增强生猪产品加工企业与养殖户的关联度。
第七章是对吉林省生猪产业的市场与流通进行分析。通过分析吉林省生猪产品市场情况发现,吉林省生猪产品的进出口量极小,人均猪肉消费量呈波动性递增态势,其中农村居民的人均猪肉消费量增长速度高于城镇居民。目前吉林省生猪市场和流通存在着如下问题：生猪产品市场体系不完善,交易规模小；吉林省生猪产品流通过程中的流通费用较大；生猪产品源头难以追溯,使质量安全难以保证；分散、小规模饲养的生猪流通渠道长,抵御市场风险能力弱；生猪期货交易发展缓慢,不适应现代市场经济的发展。针对上述问题吉林省应该不断提高生猪产品质量,创生猪产品的国际名牌；减少生猪产品的流通环节,优化流通渠道；加快吉林省生猪市场体系建设,不断推进地区集中性市场建设；创新交易模式,加强信息化、网络一体化建设,促进生猪期货交易的发展。
第八章分析吉林省生猪产业组织模式,通过分析发现：各种类型的生猪产业组织模式在运作的过程中存在产业组织模式链条短而使组织效率低、在组织方式上存在缺陷、在组织结构上存在内部结构不均衡等问题；而政府在生猪产业组织模式运作过程中往往会出现角色定位不正确的问题。针对生猪产业组织模式存在的上述问题,为了优化生猪产业组织模式,要促进生猪产业组织模式的联结链条完整性,提高组织效率；实现生猪产业组织模式的内部结构均衡；与此同时,要在政府的引导下,促进生猪产业组织模式的创新。
第九章为本文的结论与建议部分。通过全文的分析与研究,得出如下结论：中国生猪产业已经进入到了一个新的发展时期；吉林省在生猪饲养规模上适合大规模饲养；吉林省的生猪加工业处于粗加工向深加工的过渡时期；吉林省生猪产业的发展越来越受到国内市场的制约。在对论文的研究结论进行总结的基础上,提出了促进生猪产业稳定发展的政策建议,为生猪产业相关参与主体及政府相关部门决策的制定提供参考。
The hog industry has been the dominant part of animal husbandry during its60-year development in new China. The healthy development of hog industry has been an important way to increase the income of peasants, and to ensure the meat consumption of residents. As a major producer of grain, Jilin province could provide abundant concentrated feed for the development of hog industry. However, on the one hand, the market volume of hogs and the pork production in Jinlin province both occupy a low proportion throughout the whole country and the total level of hog industry in Jilin province which lacks of advantages is in the middle and lower position of all. On the other hand, the depth of hog product processing is not enough, which lacks of features and market competitiveness. Since21st century, the hog production in Jilin province has been increased with fluctuations, especially since2005, the hog production has fluctuated frequently, which has affected the stability of the development of hog industry. The key problems of hog industry in Jilin province are how to get stable development and how to adjust to the market demand.
This paper, completely and symmetrically, studies and analyzes the production, processing, distribution and other links of hog industry in Jilin province on the basis of the present situation of the development of hog industry in Jilin province. It also analyzes the industrial organization modes of hog industry and the existing problems of cultivation, production and distribution during the developing process of the hog industry in Jilin province, and then demonstrates the reasons. Finally it measures the moderate feeding scale of hogs and searches for approaches to promote the stable and effective development of hog industry in Jilin province.
This paper consists of nine chapters, the main contents and conclusions are as follows:
The first two chapters, which are the basic parts of this paper, clarify the basis of the selected title, the main contents, research methods and technical routes and make comments on relevant national and international studies. These two chapters also define the basic concepts involved in this paper and the research scope, and make a systematic exposition of the basic theories.
Chapter3describes and analyzes the current situation of the development of hog industry in China from production, price and some other aspects, and utilizes the existing research results, statistics to analyze the production, price, mode, market structure and regional distribution of hog industry in China. According to these analyses, we find the fluctuations in the growth of the price and hog production, and the waves have been enlarged since21st century. Especially from October,2005, the waves have fluctuated frequently.
Chapter4takes the SWOT method to analyze the current situation, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the development of hog industry in Jilin province, Meanwhile it reviews the developing history of hog industry in Jilin province. Based on the analyses, this paper points out that we need to seize the developing opportunities, use the advantages of the industry and take appropriate and reasonable measures to avoid the disadvantages, so that we can reduce the threats we face and keep the healthy and stable development of hog industry in Jilin province.
Chapter5makes empirical analysis of the input-output situation of hog production in Jilin province. This chapter analyzes the input-output situation of all hog feeding scales by the contrast method, and uses c-d production function to establish hog production function to measure the scale pay of all hog feeding scales in Jilin province. By using the grey situation method and cost flexibility method, this chapter measures the moderate scale of hogs raised in Jilin province. The results show that:the scattered bred mode is in the stage of diminishing returns to scale, and other three kinds of modes are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. Through the comparative analysis of the scale paymet index of these three scales, we find that the raising on a large scale will get the most reward. Through the above empirical analysis, we find that the main influence factors of hog industry in Jilin province are the small production scale, the increasing production costs, the weak ability to resist market risks and diseases, the low standard of pork quality and so on. In view of the above factors, we put forward effective countermeasures and suggestions to keep the stability of hog industry in Jilin province. We need to strengthen the construction of the primary animal disease prevention system and the science and technology promotion system, and to promote the moderate-scale hog production. This chapter uses the grey situation method to choose an appropriate scale of hog production, the results show that the large scale mode is feasible for hog production in Jilin province, and then it uses the cost flexibility method on the basis of the investigation data and finds that the appropriate hog market volume in Jilin province is1000-1500head a year.
Chapter6mainly analyzes the hog processing industry in Jilin province. By studying the current situation of the hog processing enterprises in Jilin province, we find the problems that exist in hog processing enterprises in Jilin province. The first is that the small and medium enterprises are still in the dominant position. The second is that the practical processing ability of the hog product processing enterprises above the scale is inadequate and the depth of the processing is not enough. The restrictive factors that caused the above problems are the low standard of hog production caused by the scattered and small feeding scales, the weakness in technological innovation and the high tax of hog production in Jilin province. In order to keep the healthy and orderly development of hog processing industry in Jilin province, we should promote the degree of the scale, take the market as the guidance to moderately expand the practical processing ability of the hog product processing enterprises above the scale, enhance the technological innovation ability of the hog processing enterprises, prolong the chain of the processing industry, increase the processing varieties and the value of the products, and strengthen the correlation between the product processing enterprises and the hog householders.
Chapter7analyzes the market and circulation of the hog industry in Jilin province. By the analysis of the conditions of the hog product markets in Jilin province, we find a small quantity of the export and import of hog products, and the per capita pork consumption continues to increase with fluctuations, and the per capita pork consumption of rural residents is growing even faster than that of urban residents. At present, the problems of the hog market and circulation in Jilin province are the unsound system of hog product market, the small scale of the trade, the high costs in the circulation of the hog products in Jilin province, the difficulties of tracing the source of the hog products which guarantees the safety of the quality, the long hog distribution channels of the scattered and small feeding scales, the weakness to resist the risks, the slow development of the futures trading of the hog products. In view of the above questions, Jilin province should improve the quality of hog products, create international famous brands of hog products, reduce the circulations of the hog products, speed up the development of the hog market system in Jilin province, and constantly promote the construction of the regional concentration market, make new trade patterns, enhance the integration of the information and the network, and promote the futures trading development of the hogs.
Chapter8makes analysis of the hog industrial organization modes in Jilin province. According to the study, we find that all types of hog industrial organization modes operate with the same problems, such as the low efficiency caused by the short chains of the industrial organization modes, the defects existed in the structure of the organization, the imbalance of the internal structure, and the wrong position of the government in the process of the operation of the hog industrial organization modes. In terms of the above problems, we should promote the integrity of the hog industrial organization modes and improve the organizational efficiency to optimize the hog industry organization modes, and achieve the internal equilibrium of the structures of the hog industrial organization modes, and at the same time, we should promote the innovation of the hog industrial organization modes with the government's guidance.
Chapter9is the conclusions and suggestions of this paper. Through the analysis and research, we draw the conclusion that the hog industry in China has entered a new developing period, the large feeding scale is suitable for the hog production in Jilin province, the hog industry in Jilin province is in the transitional period from rough to deep processing, the hog industry development in Jilin province is increasingly restricted by domestic market factors. On the basis of the summary of the study, the paper finally proposes the policy recommendations as references for the decisions made by the related participation bodies and relevant government departments to promote the stable development of the hog industry.
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