情报信号意义构建研究
|
摘要
本研究的对象为情报信号。关于何为情报信号的,大体上可以归纳为Spence等人的博弈信号说、Chen等人的竞争信号说、Ansoff等人的预测信号说以及Fahey等人的推论信号说。本研究对于情报信号的定义更多地站在推论信号说的立场之上,并更进一步地,认为情报信号本质上是一种主观世界的变化,并将情报信号定位为“情报信号是一种语用信息,它反映了处于问题解决当中的主体认知状态的变化”。
本研究着重从三方面展开对情报信号的研究,要解决的核心问题为：
Q1：从理论本体论角度讲,情报信号是什么?
Q2：从实证影响因素角度讲,主体情报信号的意义构建过程有哪些影响因素?
Q3：从实践方法论角度讲,研究情报信号的意义构建对情报工作有何指导意义?
总的说来,有关情报信号意义构建本质内涵、影响因素以及方法论意义,将是本文的研究范围。
情报信号的研究既要重视情报信号的本体论研究,也要关注情报信号的方法论研究。关键是要把握住“一个核心论题,两个基本立足点,三个研究维度”。所谓“一个核心论题”指的就是情报信号即认知状态变化这一概念内涵。所谓“两个基本立足点”指的是情报信号意义构建所涉及的导入、搜集、组织以及推论这四个环节,都是基于具体的问题解决情境的,具体说来就是立足于认知情境不确定性和情报主体有限理性这两个基本假定。所谓“三个研究维度”具体指的是情报信号的意义构建、情报流程以及分析领域这三个维度。
为了回答第一个问题,本研究以认知矩阵作为基本分析工具,构建了情报信号意义构建的数学模型。为了回答第二个问题,本研究以理论模型为基础,构建情报信号意义构建的影响因素构念模型,运用结构方程模型对262个有效样本数据进行模型拟合以进行假设验证。为了回答第三个问题,本研究将“搜集—分析—利用”这一传统的情报流程转化为“问题导入—信息搜集—信息组织—情报推论”这一基于组织意义构建理论的意义构建流程,以更适合面向情报信号的情报工作。
本研究的主要结论分为理论结论和实证结论两方面。
理论结论方面包括：
理论结论-1：在已知解决问题所需的知识框架的前提下,任意主体的可以通过归纳、演绎、扩充知识维度、更新具体知识及获得直觉的方法来保证问题解决的实现。
理论结论-2：仅通过归纳、演绎的方法,任意主体只能解决那些与其知识结构相同、核心知识相同的问题。
理论结论-3：不同知识背景间的主体认知状态交流,将产生新的知识。而这新的知识对于其中任一主体而言均是未曾考虑过的。
理论结论-4：处于时间序列中的认知状态序列,其前一时刻的认知状态为后一时刻的认知状态提供了理解的基础。并且认知状态对于客观世界的反映既具有理性的成分,又具有非理性的成分。
实证结论方面包括：
实证结论-1：在情报信号的意义构建中,存在着因果链条：团体协作→情报方法→认知背景→情报信号意义构建
实证结论-2：三大情报信号意义构建因素中,情报方法是中介变量：(团体协作→情报方法→认知背景团体协作→认知背景
实证结论-3：影响认知背景完整程度的主要因素有认知广度、认知深度、认知连续度以及个体认知偏差。
实证结论-4：影响情报方法完善程度的主要因素有演绎途径、问题驱动途径。
实证结论-5：认知互补度以及团体认知偏差并非影响团体协作完美程度的主要因素。
实证结论-6：无论是个体认知偏差还是团体认知偏差,认知偏差因素并非意义构建的消极因素。
本研究的创新点主要体现在两方面：(1)在理论方面,构建了情报信号意义构建的数学模型。
这一模型以认知矩阵为基本分析工具,区分了两类重要的情报工作任务：问题解决型任务以及情报预测型任务,两者的根本区别在于是否存在问题矩阵。
对于问题解决型任务,本文通过对认知矩阵变换的分析,得到了在问题解决型任务中,进行有效情报信号意义构建的矩阵方程。并通过探讨认知矩阵的融合问题,将多主体参与情形转化为单一主体参与情形。
对于情报预测型任务,本文参考Kalman滤波理论,初步给出情报预测的认知矩阵迭代模型,为进一步研究奠定基础。(2)在实证方面,得到了情报信号意义构建的影响因素实证模型。
这一实证模型以理论模型为基础,区分出影响情报信号有效意义构建的三大因素：认知背景完整度、情报方法完善度以及团体协作完美度。
The object of this study is intelligence signal. It can be summarized the four main ideas of thought of intelligence signal research:game signal research represented by Spence, competitive signal research represented by Chen, forecast signal research represented by Ansoff and inference signal research represented by Fahey. This study starts from the inferences signal research, and furthermore, thinks that intelligence signal, which can be defined as pragmatic information, is essentially a kind of change of our subject world.
This study focuses on three aspects of intelligence signal to commence the research:
◆Q1:From an ontological point of view, what is the intelligence signal?
◆Q2:From an empirical point of view, what are the factors of the sense-making process of subject intelligence signal?
◆Q3:From a practical point of view, what is sense of researching sense-making of intelligence signal to the intelligence work?
In general, the research scope of this study is the content, the factors and the methodological sense of intelligence signal.
The main conclusions of this study can be divided into theoretical conclusions and empirical conclusions.
The theoretical conclusions include:
■Theoretical conclusion I:Any intelligence subject can make sure of problem solving by four approaches, which are inductive approach, deductive approach, problem driving approach and the intuition driving approach.
■Theoretical conclusionⅡ: One intelligence subject can only solve the problem which has the same knowledge structure and the same core knowledge with those of the subject.
■Theoretical conclusion III:The communication of the subjects with difference knowledge context will generate new knowledge.
■Theoretical conclusion IV: The sequence of cognitive states in timeline, the former state provides understanding foundation of the state after and the reflection of cognitive state to the object world includes both rational elements and non-rational elements.
The empirical conclusions include:
■Empirical conclusion I:There exit causal chains during the sense-making process of intelligence signal:
Team collaboration→intelligence method→cognitive background→intelligence signal sense-making
■Empirical conclusionⅡ: In the three main factors of intelligence signal sense-making, the intelligence method is the intermediary factor.
■Empirical conclusionⅢ: The main factors influencing the completeness of cognition include the width of cognition, depth of cognition, continuity of cognition and bias of individual.
■Empirical conclusionⅣ: The main approaches influence the perfect degree of intelligence method include the inductive approach, deductive approach, problem driving approach and the intuition driving approach.
■Empirical conclusionⅤ: The complementary degree of cognition and the bias of team aren't the main factors of perfect degree of teamwork.
■Empirical conclusionⅥ: Neither biases of individual nor biases of team are the negative factors of sense-making.
The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in two aspects:
■In theoretical aspects, it has built a mathematical model of sense-making of intelligence signal.
■In empirical aspect, it has found out the empirical model of sense-making of intelligence signal.
本研究着重从三方面展开对情报信号的研究,要解决的核心问题为：
Q1：从理论本体论角度讲,情报信号是什么?
Q2：从实证影响因素角度讲,主体情报信号的意义构建过程有哪些影响因素?
Q3：从实践方法论角度讲,研究情报信号的意义构建对情报工作有何指导意义?
总的说来,有关情报信号意义构建本质内涵、影响因素以及方法论意义,将是本文的研究范围。
情报信号的研究既要重视情报信号的本体论研究,也要关注情报信号的方法论研究。关键是要把握住“一个核心论题,两个基本立足点,三个研究维度”。所谓“一个核心论题”指的就是情报信号即认知状态变化这一概念内涵。所谓“两个基本立足点”指的是情报信号意义构建所涉及的导入、搜集、组织以及推论这四个环节,都是基于具体的问题解决情境的,具体说来就是立足于认知情境不确定性和情报主体有限理性这两个基本假定。所谓“三个研究维度”具体指的是情报信号的意义构建、情报流程以及分析领域这三个维度。
为了回答第一个问题,本研究以认知矩阵作为基本分析工具,构建了情报信号意义构建的数学模型。为了回答第二个问题,本研究以理论模型为基础,构建情报信号意义构建的影响因素构念模型,运用结构方程模型对262个有效样本数据进行模型拟合以进行假设验证。为了回答第三个问题,本研究将“搜集—分析—利用”这一传统的情报流程转化为“问题导入—信息搜集—信息组织—情报推论”这一基于组织意义构建理论的意义构建流程,以更适合面向情报信号的情报工作。
本研究的主要结论分为理论结论和实证结论两方面。
理论结论方面包括：
理论结论-1：在已知解决问题所需的知识框架的前提下,任意主体的可以通过归纳、演绎、扩充知识维度、更新具体知识及获得直觉的方法来保证问题解决的实现。
理论结论-2：仅通过归纳、演绎的方法,任意主体只能解决那些与其知识结构相同、核心知识相同的问题。
理论结论-3：不同知识背景间的主体认知状态交流,将产生新的知识。而这新的知识对于其中任一主体而言均是未曾考虑过的。
理论结论-4：处于时间序列中的认知状态序列,其前一时刻的认知状态为后一时刻的认知状态提供了理解的基础。并且认知状态对于客观世界的反映既具有理性的成分,又具有非理性的成分。
实证结论方面包括：
实证结论-1：在情报信号的意义构建中,存在着因果链条：团体协作→情报方法→认知背景→情报信号意义构建
实证结论-2：三大情报信号意义构建因素中,情报方法是中介变量：(团体协作→情报方法→认知背景团体协作→认知背景
实证结论-3：影响认知背景完整程度的主要因素有认知广度、认知深度、认知连续度以及个体认知偏差。
实证结论-4：影响情报方法完善程度的主要因素有演绎途径、问题驱动途径。
实证结论-5：认知互补度以及团体认知偏差并非影响团体协作完美程度的主要因素。
实证结论-6：无论是个体认知偏差还是团体认知偏差,认知偏差因素并非意义构建的消极因素。
本研究的创新点主要体现在两方面：(1)在理论方面,构建了情报信号意义构建的数学模型。
这一模型以认知矩阵为基本分析工具,区分了两类重要的情报工作任务：问题解决型任务以及情报预测型任务,两者的根本区别在于是否存在问题矩阵。
对于问题解决型任务,本文通过对认知矩阵变换的分析,得到了在问题解决型任务中,进行有效情报信号意义构建的矩阵方程。并通过探讨认知矩阵的融合问题,将多主体参与情形转化为单一主体参与情形。
对于情报预测型任务,本文参考Kalman滤波理论,初步给出情报预测的认知矩阵迭代模型,为进一步研究奠定基础。(2)在实证方面,得到了情报信号意义构建的影响因素实证模型。
这一实证模型以理论模型为基础,区分出影响情报信号有效意义构建的三大因素：认知背景完整度、情报方法完善度以及团体协作完美度。
The object of this study is intelligence signal. It can be summarized the four main ideas of thought of intelligence signal research:game signal research represented by Spence, competitive signal research represented by Chen, forecast signal research represented by Ansoff and inference signal research represented by Fahey. This study starts from the inferences signal research, and furthermore, thinks that intelligence signal, which can be defined as pragmatic information, is essentially a kind of change of our subject world.
This study focuses on three aspects of intelligence signal to commence the research:
◆Q1:From an ontological point of view, what is the intelligence signal?
◆Q2:From an empirical point of view, what are the factors of the sense-making process of subject intelligence signal?
◆Q3:From a practical point of view, what is sense of researching sense-making of intelligence signal to the intelligence work?
In general, the research scope of this study is the content, the factors and the methodological sense of intelligence signal.
The main conclusions of this study can be divided into theoretical conclusions and empirical conclusions.
The theoretical conclusions include:
■Theoretical conclusion I:Any intelligence subject can make sure of problem solving by four approaches, which are inductive approach, deductive approach, problem driving approach and the intuition driving approach.
■Theoretical conclusionⅡ: One intelligence subject can only solve the problem which has the same knowledge structure and the same core knowledge with those of the subject.
■Theoretical conclusion III:The communication of the subjects with difference knowledge context will generate new knowledge.
■Theoretical conclusion IV: The sequence of cognitive states in timeline, the former state provides understanding foundation of the state after and the reflection of cognitive state to the object world includes both rational elements and non-rational elements.
The empirical conclusions include:
■Empirical conclusion I:There exit causal chains during the sense-making process of intelligence signal:
Team collaboration→intelligence method→cognitive background→intelligence signal sense-making
■Empirical conclusionⅡ: In the three main factors of intelligence signal sense-making, the intelligence method is the intermediary factor.
■Empirical conclusionⅢ: The main factors influencing the completeness of cognition include the width of cognition, depth of cognition, continuity of cognition and bias of individual.
■Empirical conclusionⅣ: The main approaches influence the perfect degree of intelligence method include the inductive approach, deductive approach, problem driving approach and the intuition driving approach.
■Empirical conclusionⅤ: The complementary degree of cognition and the bias of team aren't the main factors of perfect degree of teamwork.
■Empirical conclusionⅥ: Neither biases of individual nor biases of team are the negative factors of sense-making.
The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in two aspects:
■In theoretical aspects, it has built a mathematical model of sense-making of intelligence signal.
■In empirical aspect, it has found out the empirical model of sense-making of intelligence signal.
引文
注 事实上,Sharkey、Mack以及Weishar等人认为情报信号处理与电子通讯领域的信号处理有相通之处,两者之间的分业并非那么泾渭分明。
1 沈固朝.信号分析：竞争情报研究的又一重要课题[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：11-14,59.
2 刘千里,童悦.信号分析的若干理论与方法探析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：15-19,113.
3 赵小康.基于弱信号的企业竞争情报搜集[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：20-24.
4 赵小康.弱信号：识别、探测与应对[J].情报杂志,2010,29(1)：159-163.
5 董悦,赵小康,刘彦祖.技术预见中的信号分析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：25-29.
6 彭靖里,赵光洲.战略管理中“市场信号”与竞争情报的关系探析[J].情报杂志,2011,30(3)：26-30.
7 张岚岚,许鑫.企业竞争情报中弱信号获取及其影响因素[J].图书情报工作,2010,54(14)：79-82,135.
8 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：90.
1Hiltunen, E. The future sign and its three dimensions [J].Futures,2008,40:247-260.
2 Swets, J A, Dawes, R M, Monahan, J. Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions [J]. Psychological Science in the Public Interest,2000(1):1-26.
3 McFall, R M, Treat, T A. Quantifying the information value of clinical assessments with signal detection theory [J]. Annual Review of Psychology,1999,50:215-241.
1 Choo, C W. Information use and early warning effectiveness: Perspectives and prospects [J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Sciense and Technology,2009,60(5):1071-1082.
2Hammond, K R. Human judgment and social policy: Irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice [M]. New York: Oxford University Press.1996.
Spence, A M. Job Market Signaling [J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973:355-374.
4 Nelson, P. Advertising as Information [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1974(4):729-754.
5 Kihlstrom, R E, Riordan, M E. Advertising as a Signal [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1984(3):427-450.
1 Riley, J G. Competitive Signaling [J]. Journal of Economic Theory,1975(2):174-186.
2 Engers, M. Signaling with Many Signals [J]. Econo-metrica,1987(3):663-674.
3 Boulding, W. The Optimal Production of Product Quality [R], Duke University,1989.
4 Melnik, M I, Alm, J. Seller reputation, information signals, and prices for heterogeneous coins on eBay [J]. Southern Economic Journal,2005,72(2):305-328.
5 迈克尔·波特.竞争战略[M].北京：华夏出版社,1997：76.
6 Heil, O, Robertson, T S. Towards a theory of competitive market signaling: a research agenda [J]. Strategic Management Journal.1991(6):403-418.
7 Eliashberg, J, Robertson, T S. New Product Pre-announcing Behavior: A Market Signaling Study [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1988(3):282-292.
1 Herbig, P, Milewicz, J. Marketing Signals in Service Industries [J]. The Journal of Services Marketing, 1994(2):19-35.
2 Milewicz, J, Herbig, P. A quantitative analysis of the relative efficiency between overt and covert market signals [J]. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,1997,5(4):45-57.
3 Podolny, J M. Status signals: A sociological study of market competition [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2008.
Chen M J, MacMillan, I C. Nonresponse and Delayed Response to Competitive Moves: The Role of Competitor Dependence and Action Irreversibility [J]. Academy of Management Journal,1992,35:539-570.
5 Chen M J, Venkataraman, S, Black, S S, MacMillan, I C. The role of irreversibilities in competitive interaction: Behavioral considerations from organization theory [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics,2002,23:187-207.
0 Dou Bin. The impact of marketing signal on the profitability of decision-making under dynamic competitive [EB/OL]. http://www.seiofbluemountain.com/search/detail.php?id=641.2010-08-20.
7 陈明哲.动态竞争[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009：5.
1 汪克夷,冯桂平.基于市场信号的竞争反应预测[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(3)：18-22.
2 Prabhu, J, Stewart, D W. Signaling Strategies in Competitive Interaction: Building Reputations and Hiding the Truth [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,2001(1):62-72.
3 Rao, A R, Qu, L, Ruekert, R W. Signaling unobservable product quality through a brand ally [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1999,36:258-268.
4 Chatterjee, S, Kang, Y S, Mishra, D P. Market signals and relative preference: the moderating effects of conflicting information, decision focus, and need for cognition [J]. Journal of Business Research, 2005.58:1362-1370.
5 Boush, D M, Kahle, L. Evaluating negative information in online consumer discussions: From qualitative analysis to signal detection [J]. Journal of Euromarketing,2002,11(2):89-105.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：89-90.
2 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：91-93.
3 Masse,P.Le Plan ou I'Anti-hasard[M].Paris：Gallimard,1965.
4 Ansoff, H I. Implanting strategic management [M]. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall International,1984:20-21.
5 Blanco, S, Lesca, H. Business Intelligence: Integrating Knowledge into Selection of Early Warning Signals [EB/OL]. http://veille-strategique.eolas-services.com/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.2006-03-03.
6 Godet, M. From anticipation to action: A handbook of strategic prospective [M]. Paris: UNESCO Publishing, 1993:55.
注 wild card直译“百搭牌”,可意译为“不可预知的因素”。
7 Hiltunen, E. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change? [J]. Journal of Futures Studies, 2006,11(2):61-74.
1 Saritas, O, Smith, J E. The big picture:Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals [J]. Futures, 2011,43(3):292-312.
2 Hiltunen, E. The futures window: A medium for presenting visual weak signals to trigger employees' futures thinking in organizations [R], W-423. Helsinki: Helsinki School of Economics,2007.
3 Uskali, T. Paying attention to weak signals: The key concept for innovation journalism [J]. Innovation Journalism, 2005,2(4).33-51.
4 Bright, J R. Evaluating signals of technological change [J]. Harvard Business Review,1970(1):62-70.
1 Blanco, S, Lesca, H. Business intelligence:Integrating knowledge into selection of early warning signals [EB/OL]. http://veille-strategique.eolas-services.com/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.2006-03-03.
2 Marrs, R. Early warning signals: A conversation for exploration [EB/OL]. http://www.altamontcg.com/Documents/Early_Warning_Signals_Conversation_.pdf.2011-05-02.
3 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：99.
1 Day, G S, Schoemaker, P J H. Peripheral vision:Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company [M]. Boston: Harvard Business Press,2006.
2 Haeckel, S H. Peripheral vision:Sensing and acting on weak signals making meaning out of apparent noise:The need for a new managerial framework [J]. Long Range Planning,2004,37:181-189.
3 Hawes, T. Competitive intelligence signal-to-noise [EB/OL]. http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/02/22/competitive-intelligence-signal-to-noise/.2010-02-22.
4 Kuusi, O, Hiltunen, E. The signification process of the future sign [M/OL]. Turku: Turku School of Economics, 2007:11.
5 Kuosa, T. Futures Signals Sense-making Framework (FSSF): A Start-up Tool to Analyse and Categorise Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Drivers, Trends and other Types of Information [J]. Futures,2010(1):42-48.
1 Sharkey, J B, Mack, G, Weishar, D. A signal processing model for structuring a transaction-based information system for early warning [A]. D A Williamson.2003 IEEE Aerospace Conference[C]. IEEE Aerospace and Electronics Systems Society,2003(6):2945-2958.
1 What is a safety signal [EB/OL]. http://www.pfizer.com/files/health/medicine_safety/2-4_What_is_a_Safetv_Signal.pdf.2011-03-06.
2 Henegar, C, Bousquet, C, Louet, A L-L, Degoulet, P, Jaulent, M-C. A knowledge based approach for automated signal generation in pharmacovigilance [A]. Fieschi, M et al.. MEDINFO [C]. Amsterdam: IOS Press,2004:626-630.
3 Dasgupta, N, Schnoll, S H. Signal detection in post-marketing surveillance for controlled substances [J]. Drug and Alcohol Dependence,2009,105:533-541.
1 巢乃鹏.网络受众心理行为研究——一种信息查寻的研究范式[M].北京：新华出版社,2002：135-140.
1 皮亚杰.发生认识论原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997：16.
2 转引自乔欢.周舟.意义构建理论要义评析[J].图书馆杂志,2007,26(5)：8.
3 卡尔·维克.组织社会心理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009：122.
4Aaltonen, M. Multi-ontology, sense-making and the emergence of the future[J]. Futures,2009,41(5):280.
1 Mendonga, S, Pina e Cunha, M, Kaivo-oja, J, Ruff, F. Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation[J]. Futures,2004,36(2):201-218.
1 马克斯·巴泽曼.管理决策中的判断[M].北京：人民邮电出版社.2007：9-12.
1 沈丽容.竞争情报——中国企业生存的第四要素[M].北京：北京图书馆出版社.2003：5.
2 骆建彬等编著.竞争情报实务指南——知己知彼的商战方略[M].海口：南海出版公司.2005：109-114.
3 包昌火,谢新洲,李艳.竞争对手分析论纲[J].情报学报.2003,22(1)：103-114.
1 马迎春.竞争对手情报搜集与竞争力评价指标体系研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2004：21-31.
2 王曰芬.甘利人.竞争对手的情报研究[J].情报理论与实践.2001(4)：271-273.
3 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：122.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：123-126.
1 章琰.作为“过程”的技术[J].自然辩证法研究.2004,20(3)：77-81.
2 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：393.
1 转引自沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008：428.
2 Day, G S, Schoemaker, P J H. Peripheral vision:Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company [M]. Boston: Harvard Business Press,2006.注 相对于“防守的竞争情报”而言。
3 McGonagle, J J, Vella, C M. Bottom line competitive intelligence [M]. London: Quorum Books.2002:22.
1Hiltunen, E. Weak signals in organizational futures [R], A-365. Helsinki: Helsinki School of Economics,2010.
1 all-source intelligence [EB/OL]. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/all-source+intelligence.2010-05-04.
2 转引自沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008：111.
3 现代战场传感神经：机动通信[EB/OL].http://www.people.com.cn/GB/junshi/1078/2224510.html.2010-10-04.
1Feldman, M S, March, J G. Information in organizations as signal and symbol [J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1981,26:171-186.
1 克里斯·韦斯特.商业竞争对手的情报收集分析评估[M].北京：中国商务出版社.2004：48-49.
1 王煜全,Zutshi, A情报制胜：企业竞争情报[M].北京：科学出版社.2004：51.
1 沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008：94.
2McGonagle, J J, Vella, C M. Bottom line competitive intelligence [M]. London: Quorum Books.2002:41.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：95-98.
2 张岳.信号：在征兆中把握应变得契机[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2006：62-72.
3 柯克·W·M·泰森著,王玉等译.竞争情报完全指南[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：104.注 由Tyson和Vriens的相关成果合并修改而来。
1 杨娟.竞争情报在不完全信息条件下的征兆分析[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2007：19-20.
1 Friedman, G, Friedman, M, Chapman, C, Baker, J S. The intelligence edge [M]. Crown Publishers, New York: New York.114,142.164.
2 蔡建文.情报为王：商业情报的攻防之道[M].北京：金城出版社.2008：113.
3 Hiltunen, E. Good sources of weak signals: A global study of where futurists look for weak signals [J]. Journal of Futures Studies,200812(4):21-44.
1 Rodriguez, C, Daniel, F, Casati, F, Cappiello, C. Toward uncertain business intelligence: The case of key indicators [J]. Internet Computing,201014,(4):32-40.
2 Rothwell, K E. Early warning indicators [J]. Competitive Intelligence,2010,13(1):55-57.
1 Shaker, S M, Gembicki, M P. The Warroom guide to competitive intelligence [M]. New York: McGraw-Hill. 1999:42.
2 Vaghely, I, Julien, P-A, Carrier, C. Innovation, information and the information catalyst in SMEs [EB/OL]. http://www.sbaer.uca.edu/research/icsb/2004/paper48.pdf.2011-03-21.
1Johnston, Rob. Analytic culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An ethnographic study [R]. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence,2005:18.
1 冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作,2007,51(2)：30-33.
2 Powell, T W. Analysis in business planning and strategy formulation [A]. In Gilad, B, Herring, J P. The Art and Science of Business Intelligence Analysis: Business Intelligence Theory, Principles, Practices, and Uses [C]. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.1996:162-163.
3 利奥塔著,岛子译.后现代状况：关于知识的状况[M].长沙：湖南美术出版社.1996：67.
4 欧内斯特·内格尔著,徐向东译.科学的结构[M].上海：上海译文出版社.2005：4,
5 欧内斯特·内格尔著,徐向东译.科学的结构[M].上海：上海译文出版社.2005：22-27.
1 冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作.2007(2)：30-33. 注 参考王巍《科学说明和历史解释》一文中提到的亨普关于科学说明的推广模式修改得到。
1 郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5)：48-51.
2 转引自郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5)：49.
3 转引自郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5)：49.
4Heuer, R J. Psychology of intelligence analysis [M/OL]. Center for the study of intelligence, CIA.1999:8-13.
1 张岳.信号：在征兆中把握应变得契机[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2006：133.
2 Heuer, R J. Psychology of intelligence analysis [M/OL]. Center for the study of intelligence, CIA.1999:97.
1 Huff, A S. A current and future agenda for cognitive research in organizations[J]. Journal of Management Studies, 1997,34(6):948.
2 Weick, K E. Sensemaking in organizations[M]. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage,1995.
3 Jenkins, M, Johnson, G. Entrepreneurial intentions and outcomes: a comparative causal mapping study[J]. Journal of Management Studies,1997,34(6):895-920.
1 Ansoff, H I. Implanting strategic management [M]. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall International,1984.
2 llmola, L, Kuusi,O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making[J].Futures, 2006, 38(8):919.3 卡尔·维克.组织社会心理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009：84.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：89-90.
1 转引自吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：57.
2 转引自吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：57-58.
1 索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999：7.
2 索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999：14.
1 索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999：54-55.
1 Miksa, F L. Library and information science: Two paradigms[M]. London: Taylon Graham,1992.
2 师宏睿.布鲁克斯情报认知观研究[J].图书馆理论与实践.2001(6).
1 Brookes, B C. Foundation of information science(part Ⅰ):Philosophical aspects[J]. Journal of Information Science,1980(2).
2 师宏睿.贝尔金与德尔文情报认知观评述[J].图书与情报.2003(5)：12.
3 Belkin, N. Anomalous states of knowledge as a basis for information retrieval[J]. The Canadian Journal of Information Science,1985(5):133-143.
Belkin, N. Anomalous states of knowledge as a basis for information retrieval[J]. The Canadian Journal of Information Science,1985(5):133-143.
1 Dervin, B. Users as research inventions: How research categories perpetuate inequities[J]. Journal of communication,1989,39(3):216-232.
2 Dervin, B. Users as research inventions: How research categories perpetuate inequities[J]. Journal of communication,1989,39(3):216-232.
1 殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988：47.
2 转引自殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988：145.
3 海德格尔.存在与时间[M].上海：三联书店,1987：187.
4 转引自殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988：228-230.
1 吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：77-79.
2 卢西亚诺·弗洛里迪.计算信息哲学导论(上册)[M].北京：商务印书馆.2010：129,138.
1 卢西亚诺·弗洛里迪.计算信息哲学导论(上册)[M].北京：商务印书馆.2010：13m135.注Floridi将“单一数据”定义为“d=(x≠y),x和y是两个连续变量”,一个单一数据可以被理解为两个符号(x和y)之间一致性的缺失。
1 MacKay, D. Information, mechanism and meaning [M]. Cambridge, MA:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.1969.
2 吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：72-74. 注 此处的“主语-谓语”区别于一阶逻辑中的“主词-谓词”体系,一阶谓词逻辑系统只能处理具有真值的命题,只能赋值为0或1。而“主语-谓语”则更接近日常语言体系,使得认知矩阵的赋值更加灵活。而赋值问题对于认知矩阵的运算是重要的。
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：3.
1 休·考特尼.不确定性管理[M].北京：人民大学出版社,2005：45.
2 凯斯·万·德·黑伊登著,邱昭良译.情景规划[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007：98-99.
3Langlois, R N. Transaction cost economics in real time [J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,1992(1):99-112.
4 喻卫斌.不确定性和网络组织研究[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：35-36.
5 Rubin, V L. Epistemi modality: From uncertainty to certainty in the context of information seeking as interactions with texts [J]. Information Processing and Management,2010,46:533-540.
6 Geerlings, H, Rienstra, S. Exploring'weak signals' as potential challenges in transport: An inventory of potential future technology developments [J]. Transportation Plann Technology,2003,26(6):469-489.
1Thaler, R. From homo economicus to homo sapiens [J]. Journal of economic perspectives.2000(14):133-141.
2 Chugh, D, Bazerman, M H, Banaji, M R. Bounded ethicality as a psychological barrier to recognizing conflicts of interest [A]. In Moore, D A, Cain, D M, Loewenstein, G, Bazerman, M H. Conflicts of interest: problems and solutions from law, medicine and organizational settings [C]. London:Cambridge University Press.2005.
3 Bazerman, M H, Chugh, D. Focusing in negotiation [A]. In Thompson, L. Frontiers of social psychology: Negotiations [C]. London:Psychology Press.2005. 注 但在某些特殊情况是“可以”相加,前提是具有认知意义。 注 此处其实假定Qsxt必然存在,这并非必然成立的,但对于情报分析而言,真相往往是存在的,只是如何获取的问题。因此假定Qsxt存在,是一个方便理论分析,并且可以接受的假设。
1 钱学森,开展思维科学的研究[A].钱学森.关于思维科学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1986：123-156.
2 王崇德.图书情报学方法论[M].北京：科学技术文献出版社,1988：211-213.
1 蒋志凯.数字滤波与卡尔曼滤波[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1993：141.
1 Iselin, E R. The effect of information load and information diversity on decision quality in a structured decision task [J]. Accounting, Organization and Society,1988,13:147-164.
2 Iselin, E R. The impact of information diversity on information overload effects in unstructured managerial decision making [J]. Journal of Information Science,1989,15:163-173.
1Hwang, M I, Lin, J W. Informaiton dimension, information overload and decision quality [J]. Journal of Information Science,1999,25(3):213-218.
2 O'Connor, T. Intelligecne analysis[EB/OL]. http://faculty.ncwc.edu/toconnor/427/427lect04.htm.2010-06-21.
3 钱军.情报分析过程的认知研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2008：42.
1Rourke,J T.International politics on the world stage[M].Dushkin: McGraw Hill,1997:106-108.
1llmola, L, Kuusi,O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making [J]. Futures,2006,38(8):908-924.
1 何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004：287-303.
Ansoff, H I. Implanting strategic management [M], Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice Hall International, 1984 #17,57
Day, G S, Schoemaker, P J H. Peripheral vision:Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company [M]. Boston: Harvard Business Press,2006 #20,33
Friedman, G, Friedman, M, Chapman, C, Baker, J S. The intelligence edge [M]. Crown Publishers, New York:New York #43
Godet, M. From anticipation to action:A handbook of strategic prospective [M]. Paris: UNESCO Publishing,1993 #17
Hammond, K R. Human judgment and social policy: Irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice [M]. New York: Oxford University Press.1996
Heuer, R J. Psychology of intelligence analysis [M/OL]. Center for the study of intelligence, CIA.199954, 55,133
Kuusi, O, Hiltunen, E. The signification process of the future sign [M/OL]. Turku:Turku School of Economics,2007 #20
MacKay, D. Information, mechanism and meaning [M]. Cambridge, MA:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.1969 #69
Masse, P. Le Plan ou I'Anti-hasard [M]. Paris:Gallimard,1965 #17
McGonagle, J J, Vella, C M. Bottom line competitive intelligence [M]. London:Quorum Books.2002 33, 40
Miksa, F L. Library and information science:Two paradigms[M]. London:Taylon Graham,1992 #63
Podolny, J M. Status signals:A sociological study of market competition [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2008 #14
Rourke,J T. International politics on the world stage [M]. Dushkin:McGraw Hill,1997 #88
Shaker, S M, Gembicki, M P. The Warroom guide to competitive intelligence [M]. New York: McGraw-Hill.1999 #45
Weick, K E. Sensemaking in organizations [M]. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage,1995 #57
马克斯·巴泽曼.管理决策中的判断[M].北京：人民邮电出版社.2007 #27
王崇德.图书情报学方法论[M].北京：科学技术文献出版社,1988 #78
王煜全, Zutshi, A情报制胜：企业竞争情报[M].北京：科学出版社.2004 #39
卡尔·维克.组织社会心理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009 #25
卢西亚诺·弗洛里迪.计算信息哲学导论(上册)[M].北京：商务印书馆.2010 #68
皮亚杰.发生认识论原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997 #25
休·考特尼.不确定性管理[M].北京：人民大学出版社,2005 #71
吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007 #60
迈克尔·波特.竞争战略[M].北京：华夏出版社,1997 #13
何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004 #93
克里斯·韦斯特.商业竞争对手的情报收集分析评估[M].北京：中国商务出版社.2004 #38
利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005
利奥塔著,岛子译.后现代状况：关于知识的状况[M].长沙：湖南美术出版社.1996 #48
张岳.信号：在征兆中把握应变得契机[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2006 #41
沈丽容.竞争情报——中国企业生存的第四要素[M].北京：北京图书馆出版社.2003 #28
沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008 #32
邱皓政,林碧芳.结构方程模型的原理与应用[M].北京：中国轻工业出版社,2009 #111
陈明哲.动态竞争[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009 #15
凯斯·万·德·黑伊登著,邱昭良译.情景规划[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007 #71
欧内斯特·内格尔著,徐向东译.科学的结构[M].上海：上海译文出版社.2005 #48
柯克·W·M·泰森著,王玉等译.竞争情报完全指南[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005 #41
骆建彬等编著.竞争情报实务指南——知己知彼的商战方略[M].海口：南海出版公司.2005 #28
殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988 #66
海德格尔.存在与时间[M].上海：三联书店,1987 #67
索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999 #61
巢乃鹏.网络受众心理行为研究——一种信息查寻的研究范式[M].北京：新华出版社,2002 #23
喻卫斌.不确定性和网络组织研究[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007 #72
蒋志凯.数字滤波与卡尔曼滤波[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1993 #81
蔡建文.情报为王：商业情报的攻防之道[M].北京：金城出版社.2008 #43
Aaltonen, M. Multi-ontology, sense-making and the emergence of the future[J]. Futures,2009,41(5) #26
Bazerman, M H, Chugh, D. Focusing in negotiation [A]. In Thompson, L. Frontiers of social psychology: Negotiations [C], London: Psychology Press.2005 #73
Belkin, N. Anomalous states of knowledge as a basis for information retrieval[J]. The Canadian Journal of Information Science,1985(5) #64,65
Blanco, S, Lesca, H. Business Intelligence:Integrating Knowledge into Selection of Early Warning Signals [EB/OL].
http://veille-strategique.eolas-services.com/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.2006-03-03 #17
Boush, D M, Kahle, L. Evaluating negative information in online consumer discussions:From qualitative analysis to signal detection [J]. Journal of Euromarketing,2002,11(2) #16
Bright, J R. Evaluating signals of technological change [J]. Harvard Business Review,1970(1) #18
Brookes, B C. Foundation of information science(part I): Philosophical aspects[J]. Journal of Information Science,1980(2) #64
Chatterjee, S, Kang, Y S, Mishra, D P. Market signals and relative preference: the moderating effects of conflicting information, decision focus, and need for cognition [J]. Journal of Business Research, 2005,58 #16
Chen M J, MacMillan, I C. Nonresponse and Delayed Response to Competitive Moves:The Role of Competitor Dependence and Action Irreversibility [J]. Academy of Management Journal,1992,35 14
Chen M J, Venkataraman, S, Black, S S, MacMillan, I C. The role of irreversibilities in competitive interaction:Behavioral considerations from organization theory [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics,2002,23 #14
Choo, C W. Information use and early warning effectiveness: Perspectives and prospects [J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Sciense and Technology,2009,60(5) #11
Chugh, D, Bazerman, M H, Banaji, M R. Bounded ethicality as a psychological barrier to recognizing conflicts of interest [A]. In Moore, D A, Cain, D M, Loewenstein, G, Bazerman, M H. Conflicts of interest: problems and solutions from law, medicine and organizational settings [C]. London: Cambridge University Press.2005 #73
Dasgupta, N, Schnoll, S H. Signal detection in post-marketing surveillance for controlled substances [J]. Drug and Alcohol Dependence,2009,105 #22
Dervin, B. Users as research inventions:How research categories perpetuate inequities[J]. Journal of communication,1989,39(3) #65
Dou Bin. The impact of marketing signal on the profitability of decision-making under dynamic competitive [EB/OL]. http://www.seiofbluemountain.com/search/detail.php?id=641.2010-08-2015
Eliashberg, J, Robertson, T S. New Product Pre-announcing Behavior: A Market Signaling Study [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1988(3) #14
Engers, M. Signaling with Many Signals [J]. Econo-metrica,1987(3)
Feldman, M S, March, J G. Information in organizations as signal and symbol [J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1981,26 #37
Geerlings, H, Rienstra, S. Exploring'weak signals'as potential challenges in transport:An inventory of potential future technology developments [J]. Transportation Plann Technology,2003,26(6) #72
Haeckel, S H. Peripheral vision:Sensing and acting on weak signals making meaning out of apparent noise:The need for a new managerial framework [J]. Long Range Planning,2004,37 #20
Hawes, T. Competitive intelligence signal-to-noise [EB/OL]. http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/02/22/competitive-intelligence-signal-to-noise/.2010-02-22 #20
Heil, O, Robertson, T S. Towards a theory of competitive market signaling:a research agenda [J]. Strategic Management Journal.1991(6) #13
Henegar, C, Bousquet, C, Louet, A L-L, Degoulet, P, Jaulent, M-C. A knowledge based approach for automated signal generation in pharmacovigilance [A]. Fieschi, M et al.. MEDINFO [C]. Amsterdam: IOS Press,2004 #22
Herbig, P, Milewicz, J. Marketing Signals in Service Industries [J]. The Journal of Services Marketing, 1994(2) #14
Hiltunen, E. Good sources of weak signals: A global study of where futurists look for weak signals [J]. Journal of Futures Studies,200812(4) #43
Hiltunen, E. The future sign and its three dimensions [J].Futures,2008,40 #10
Hiltunen, E. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change? [J]. Journal of Futures Studies, 2006,11(2) #17
Huff, A S. A current and future agenda for cognitive research in organizations[J]. Journal of Management Studies,1997,34(6) #57
Hwang, M I, Lin, J W. Informaiton dimension, information overload and decision quality [J]. Journal of Information Science,1999,25(3) #87
llmola, L, Kuusi,O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making [J]. Futures,2006,38(8) #57,89
Iselin, E R. The effect of information load and information diversity on decision quality in a structured decision task [J]. Accounting, Organization and Society,1988,13 #86
Iselin, E R. The impact of information diversity on information overload effects in unstructured managerial decision making [J]. Journal of Information Science,1989,15 #86
Jenkins, M, Johnson, G. Entrepreneurial intentions and outcomes:a comparative causal mapping study[J]. Journal of Management Studies,1997,34(6) #57
Kihlstrom, R E, Riordan, M E. Advertising as a Signal [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1984(3) #12
Kuosa, T. Futures Signals Sense-making Framework (FSSF): A Start-up Tool to Analyse and Categorise Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Drivers, Trends and other Types of Information [J]. Futures,2010(1) #20
Langlois, R N. Transaction cost economics in real time [J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,1992(1).71
McFall, R M, Treat, T A. Quantifying the information value of clinical assessments with signal detection theory [J]. Annual Review of Psychology,1999,50 #11
Melnik, M I, Alm, J. Seller reputation, information signals, and prices for heterogeneous coins on eBay [J]. Southern Economic Journal,2005,72(2) #13
Mendonca, S, Pina e Cunha, M, Kaivo-oja, J, Ruff, F. Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation[J]. Futures,2004,36(2) #26
Milewicz, J, Herbig, P. A quantitative analysis of the relative efficiency between overt and covert market signals [J]. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,1997,5(4) #14
Nelson, P. Advertising as Information [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1974(4) #12
Powell, T W. Analysis in business planning and strategy formulation [A]. In Gilad, B, Herring, J P. The Art and Science of Business Intelligence Analysis: Business Intelligence Theory, Principles, Practices, and Uses [C]. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.1996 #47
Prabhu, J, Stewart, D W. Signaling Strategies in Competitive Interaction: Building Reputations and Hiding the Truth [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,2001(1) #15
Rao, A R, Qu, L, Ruekert, R W. Signaling unobservable product quality through a brand ally [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1999,36 #16
Riley, J G. Competitive Signaling [J]. Journal of Economic Theory,1975(2) #12
Rodriguez, C, Daniel, F, Casati, F, Cappiello, C. Toward uncertain business intelligence:The case of key indicators [J]. Internet Computing,201014,(4) #44
Rothwell, K E. Early warning indicators [J]. Competitive Intelligence,2010,13(1) #44
Rubin, V L Epistemi modality:From uncertainty to certainty in the context of information seeking as interactions with texts [J]. Information Processing and Management,2010,46 #72
Saritas, O, Smith, J E. The big picture:Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontiniuities and weak signals [J]. Futures,2011,43(3) #18
Sharkey, J B, Mack, G, Weishar, D. A signal processing model for structuring a transaction-based information system for early warning [A]. D A Williamson.2003 IEEE Aerospace Conference[C]. IEEE Aerospace and Electronics Systems Society,2003(6) #21
Spence, A M. Job Market Signaling [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973 #12
Swets, J A, Dawes, R M, Monahan, J. Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions [J]. Psychological Science in the Public Interest,2000(1) #11
Thaler, R. From homo economicus to homo sapiens [J]. Journal of economic perspectives.2000(14).72
Uskali, T. Paying attention to weak signals:The key concept for innovation journalism [J]. Innovation Journalism,2005,2(4) #18
Vaghely, I, Julien, P-A, Carrier, C. Innovation, information and the information catalyst in SMEs [EB/OL]. http://www.sbaer.uca.edu/research/icsb/2004/paper48.pdf.2011-03-21 #46
What is a safety signal [EB/OL]. http://www.pfizer.com/files/health/medicine_safety/2-4_What_is_a_Safety_Signal.pdf.2011-03-06 ..22
马迎春.竞争对手情报搜集与竞争力评价指标体系研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2004 #29
王曰芬,甘利人.竞争对手的情报研究[J].情报理论与实践.2001(4) #29
冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作,2007,51(2) #47
冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作.2007(2) #50
包昌火,谢新洲,李艳.竞争对手分析论纲[J].情报学报.2003,22(1) #29
乔欢,周舟.意义构建理论要义评析[J].图书馆杂志,2007,26(5) #25
刘千里,童悦.信号分析的若干理论与方法探析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
师宏睿.贝尔金与德尔文情报认知观评述[J].图书与情报.2003(5) #64
师宏睿.布鲁克斯情报认知观研究[J].图书馆理论与实践.2001(6) #63
张岚岚,许鑫.企业竞争情报中弱信号获取及其影响因素[J].图书情报工作,2010,54(14) #9
杨娟.竞争情报在不完全信息条件下的征兆分析[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2007 #42
汪克夷,冯桂平.基于市场信号的竞争反应预测[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(3) #15
沈固朝.信号分析：竞争情报研究的又一重要课题[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5) #54
赵小康.弱信号：识别、探测与应对[J].情报杂志,2010,29(1) #9
赵小康.基于弱信号的企业竞争情报搜集[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
钱军.情报分析过程的认知研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2008 #87
钱学森.开展思维科学的研究[A].钱学森.关于思维科学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1986 #78
章琰.作为“过程”的技术[J].自然辩证法研究.2004,20(3) #31
彭靖里,赵光洲.战略管理中“市场信号”与竞争情报的关系探析[J].情报杂志,2011,30(3) #9
董悦,赵小康,刘彦祖.技术预见中的信号分析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
Boulding, W. The Optimal Production of Product Quality [R]. Duke University,1989 #11
Hiltunen, E. The futures window: A medium for presenting visual weak signals to trigger employees' futures thinking in organizations [R], W-423. Helsinki:Helsinki School of Economics,2007 #16
Hiltunen, E. Weak signals in organizational futures [R], A-365. Helsinki:Helsinki School of Economics, 2010 #32
Marrs, R. Early warning signals:A conversation for exploration [EB/OL]. http://www.altamontcg.com/Documents/Early_Warning_Signals_Conversation_.pdf.2011-05-0216
all-source intelligence. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/all-source+intelligence[EB/OL].2010-5-433
现代战场传感神经：机动通信http://www.people.com.cn/GB/junshi/1078/2224510.html[EB/OL].2010-10-4 #34
1 沈固朝.信号分析：竞争情报研究的又一重要课题[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：11-14,59.
2 刘千里,童悦.信号分析的若干理论与方法探析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：15-19,113.
3 赵小康.基于弱信号的企业竞争情报搜集[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：20-24.
4 赵小康.弱信号：识别、探测与应对[J].情报杂志,2010,29(1)：159-163.
5 董悦,赵小康,刘彦祖.技术预见中的信号分析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20)：25-29.
6 彭靖里,赵光洲.战略管理中“市场信号”与竞争情报的关系探析[J].情报杂志,2011,30(3)：26-30.
7 张岚岚,许鑫.企业竞争情报中弱信号获取及其影响因素[J].图书情报工作,2010,54(14)：79-82,135.
8 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：90.
1Hiltunen, E. The future sign and its three dimensions [J].Futures,2008,40:247-260.
2 Swets, J A, Dawes, R M, Monahan, J. Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions [J]. Psychological Science in the Public Interest,2000(1):1-26.
3 McFall, R M, Treat, T A. Quantifying the information value of clinical assessments with signal detection theory [J]. Annual Review of Psychology,1999,50:215-241.
1 Choo, C W. Information use and early warning effectiveness: Perspectives and prospects [J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Sciense and Technology,2009,60(5):1071-1082.
2Hammond, K R. Human judgment and social policy: Irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice [M]. New York: Oxford University Press.1996.
Spence, A M. Job Market Signaling [J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973:355-374.
4 Nelson, P. Advertising as Information [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1974(4):729-754.
5 Kihlstrom, R E, Riordan, M E. Advertising as a Signal [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1984(3):427-450.
1 Riley, J G. Competitive Signaling [J]. Journal of Economic Theory,1975(2):174-186.
2 Engers, M. Signaling with Many Signals [J]. Econo-metrica,1987(3):663-674.
3 Boulding, W. The Optimal Production of Product Quality [R], Duke University,1989.
4 Melnik, M I, Alm, J. Seller reputation, information signals, and prices for heterogeneous coins on eBay [J]. Southern Economic Journal,2005,72(2):305-328.
5 迈克尔·波特.竞争战略[M].北京：华夏出版社,1997：76.
6 Heil, O, Robertson, T S. Towards a theory of competitive market signaling: a research agenda [J]. Strategic Management Journal.1991(6):403-418.
7 Eliashberg, J, Robertson, T S. New Product Pre-announcing Behavior: A Market Signaling Study [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1988(3):282-292.
1 Herbig, P, Milewicz, J. Marketing Signals in Service Industries [J]. The Journal of Services Marketing, 1994(2):19-35.
2 Milewicz, J, Herbig, P. A quantitative analysis of the relative efficiency between overt and covert market signals [J]. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,1997,5(4):45-57.
3 Podolny, J M. Status signals: A sociological study of market competition [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2008.
Chen M J, MacMillan, I C. Nonresponse and Delayed Response to Competitive Moves: The Role of Competitor Dependence and Action Irreversibility [J]. Academy of Management Journal,1992,35:539-570.
5 Chen M J, Venkataraman, S, Black, S S, MacMillan, I C. The role of irreversibilities in competitive interaction: Behavioral considerations from organization theory [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics,2002,23:187-207.
0 Dou Bin. The impact of marketing signal on the profitability of decision-making under dynamic competitive [EB/OL]. http://www.seiofbluemountain.com/search/detail.php?id=641.2010-08-20.
7 陈明哲.动态竞争[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009：5.
1 汪克夷,冯桂平.基于市场信号的竞争反应预测[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(3)：18-22.
2 Prabhu, J, Stewart, D W. Signaling Strategies in Competitive Interaction: Building Reputations and Hiding the Truth [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,2001(1):62-72.
3 Rao, A R, Qu, L, Ruekert, R W. Signaling unobservable product quality through a brand ally [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1999,36:258-268.
4 Chatterjee, S, Kang, Y S, Mishra, D P. Market signals and relative preference: the moderating effects of conflicting information, decision focus, and need for cognition [J]. Journal of Business Research, 2005.58:1362-1370.
5 Boush, D M, Kahle, L. Evaluating negative information in online consumer discussions: From qualitative analysis to signal detection [J]. Journal of Euromarketing,2002,11(2):89-105.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：89-90.
2 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：91-93.
3 Masse,P.Le Plan ou I'Anti-hasard[M].Paris：Gallimard,1965.
4 Ansoff, H I. Implanting strategic management [M]. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall International,1984:20-21.
5 Blanco, S, Lesca, H. Business Intelligence: Integrating Knowledge into Selection of Early Warning Signals [EB/OL]. http://veille-strategique.eolas-services.com/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.2006-03-03.
6 Godet, M. From anticipation to action: A handbook of strategic prospective [M]. Paris: UNESCO Publishing, 1993:55.
注 wild card直译“百搭牌”,可意译为“不可预知的因素”。
7 Hiltunen, E. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change? [J]. Journal of Futures Studies, 2006,11(2):61-74.
1 Saritas, O, Smith, J E. The big picture:Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals [J]. Futures, 2011,43(3):292-312.
2 Hiltunen, E. The futures window: A medium for presenting visual weak signals to trigger employees' futures thinking in organizations [R], W-423. Helsinki: Helsinki School of Economics,2007.
3 Uskali, T. Paying attention to weak signals: The key concept for innovation journalism [J]. Innovation Journalism, 2005,2(4).33-51.
4 Bright, J R. Evaluating signals of technological change [J]. Harvard Business Review,1970(1):62-70.
1 Blanco, S, Lesca, H. Business intelligence:Integrating knowledge into selection of early warning signals [EB/OL]. http://veille-strategique.eolas-services.com/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.2006-03-03.
2 Marrs, R. Early warning signals: A conversation for exploration [EB/OL]. http://www.altamontcg.com/Documents/Early_Warning_Signals_Conversation_.pdf.2011-05-02.
3 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：99.
1 Day, G S, Schoemaker, P J H. Peripheral vision:Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company [M]. Boston: Harvard Business Press,2006.
2 Haeckel, S H. Peripheral vision:Sensing and acting on weak signals making meaning out of apparent noise:The need for a new managerial framework [J]. Long Range Planning,2004,37:181-189.
3 Hawes, T. Competitive intelligence signal-to-noise [EB/OL]. http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/02/22/competitive-intelligence-signal-to-noise/.2010-02-22.
4 Kuusi, O, Hiltunen, E. The signification process of the future sign [M/OL]. Turku: Turku School of Economics, 2007:11.
5 Kuosa, T. Futures Signals Sense-making Framework (FSSF): A Start-up Tool to Analyse and Categorise Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Drivers, Trends and other Types of Information [J]. Futures,2010(1):42-48.
1 Sharkey, J B, Mack, G, Weishar, D. A signal processing model for structuring a transaction-based information system for early warning [A]. D A Williamson.2003 IEEE Aerospace Conference[C]. IEEE Aerospace and Electronics Systems Society,2003(6):2945-2958.
1 What is a safety signal [EB/OL]. http://www.pfizer.com/files/health/medicine_safety/2-4_What_is_a_Safetv_Signal.pdf.2011-03-06.
2 Henegar, C, Bousquet, C, Louet, A L-L, Degoulet, P, Jaulent, M-C. A knowledge based approach for automated signal generation in pharmacovigilance [A]. Fieschi, M et al.. MEDINFO [C]. Amsterdam: IOS Press,2004:626-630.
3 Dasgupta, N, Schnoll, S H. Signal detection in post-marketing surveillance for controlled substances [J]. Drug and Alcohol Dependence,2009,105:533-541.
1 巢乃鹏.网络受众心理行为研究——一种信息查寻的研究范式[M].北京：新华出版社,2002：135-140.
1 皮亚杰.发生认识论原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997：16.
2 转引自乔欢.周舟.意义构建理论要义评析[J].图书馆杂志,2007,26(5)：8.
3 卡尔·维克.组织社会心理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009：122.
4Aaltonen, M. Multi-ontology, sense-making and the emergence of the future[J]. Futures,2009,41(5):280.
1 Mendonga, S, Pina e Cunha, M, Kaivo-oja, J, Ruff, F. Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation[J]. Futures,2004,36(2):201-218.
1 马克斯·巴泽曼.管理决策中的判断[M].北京：人民邮电出版社.2007：9-12.
1 沈丽容.竞争情报——中国企业生存的第四要素[M].北京：北京图书馆出版社.2003：5.
2 骆建彬等编著.竞争情报实务指南——知己知彼的商战方略[M].海口：南海出版公司.2005：109-114.
3 包昌火,谢新洲,李艳.竞争对手分析论纲[J].情报学报.2003,22(1)：103-114.
1 马迎春.竞争对手情报搜集与竞争力评价指标体系研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2004：21-31.
2 王曰芬.甘利人.竞争对手的情报研究[J].情报理论与实践.2001(4)：271-273.
3 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：122.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：123-126.
1 章琰.作为“过程”的技术[J].自然辩证法研究.2004,20(3)：77-81.
2 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：393.
1 转引自沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008：428.
2 Day, G S, Schoemaker, P J H. Peripheral vision:Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company [M]. Boston: Harvard Business Press,2006.注 相对于“防守的竞争情报”而言。
3 McGonagle, J J, Vella, C M. Bottom line competitive intelligence [M]. London: Quorum Books.2002:22.
1Hiltunen, E. Weak signals in organizational futures [R], A-365. Helsinki: Helsinki School of Economics,2010.
1 all-source intelligence [EB/OL]. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/all-source+intelligence.2010-05-04.
2 转引自沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008：111.
3 现代战场传感神经：机动通信[EB/OL].http://www.people.com.cn/GB/junshi/1078/2224510.html.2010-10-04.
1Feldman, M S, March, J G. Information in organizations as signal and symbol [J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1981,26:171-186.
1 克里斯·韦斯特.商业竞争对手的情报收集分析评估[M].北京：中国商务出版社.2004：48-49.
1 王煜全,Zutshi, A情报制胜：企业竞争情报[M].北京：科学出版社.2004：51.
1 沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008：94.
2McGonagle, J J, Vella, C M. Bottom line competitive intelligence [M]. London: Quorum Books.2002:41.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：95-98.
2 张岳.信号：在征兆中把握应变得契机[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2006：62-72.
3 柯克·W·M·泰森著,王玉等译.竞争情报完全指南[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：104.注 由Tyson和Vriens的相关成果合并修改而来。
1 杨娟.竞争情报在不完全信息条件下的征兆分析[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2007：19-20.
1 Friedman, G, Friedman, M, Chapman, C, Baker, J S. The intelligence edge [M]. Crown Publishers, New York: New York.114,142.164.
2 蔡建文.情报为王：商业情报的攻防之道[M].北京：金城出版社.2008：113.
3 Hiltunen, E. Good sources of weak signals: A global study of where futurists look for weak signals [J]. Journal of Futures Studies,200812(4):21-44.
1 Rodriguez, C, Daniel, F, Casati, F, Cappiello, C. Toward uncertain business intelligence: The case of key indicators [J]. Internet Computing,201014,(4):32-40.
2 Rothwell, K E. Early warning indicators [J]. Competitive Intelligence,2010,13(1):55-57.
1 Shaker, S M, Gembicki, M P. The Warroom guide to competitive intelligence [M]. New York: McGraw-Hill. 1999:42.
2 Vaghely, I, Julien, P-A, Carrier, C. Innovation, information and the information catalyst in SMEs [EB/OL]. http://www.sbaer.uca.edu/research/icsb/2004/paper48.pdf.2011-03-21.
1Johnston, Rob. Analytic culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An ethnographic study [R]. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence,2005:18.
1 冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作,2007,51(2)：30-33.
2 Powell, T W. Analysis in business planning and strategy formulation [A]. In Gilad, B, Herring, J P. The Art and Science of Business Intelligence Analysis: Business Intelligence Theory, Principles, Practices, and Uses [C]. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.1996:162-163.
3 利奥塔著,岛子译.后现代状况：关于知识的状况[M].长沙：湖南美术出版社.1996：67.
4 欧内斯特·内格尔著,徐向东译.科学的结构[M].上海：上海译文出版社.2005：4,
5 欧内斯特·内格尔著,徐向东译.科学的结构[M].上海：上海译文出版社.2005：22-27.
1 冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作.2007(2)：30-33. 注 参考王巍《科学说明和历史解释》一文中提到的亨普关于科学说明的推广模式修改得到。
1 郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5)：48-51.
2 转引自郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5)：49.
3 转引自郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5)：49.
4Heuer, R J. Psychology of intelligence analysis [M/OL]. Center for the study of intelligence, CIA.1999:8-13.
1 张岳.信号：在征兆中把握应变得契机[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2006：133.
2 Heuer, R J. Psychology of intelligence analysis [M/OL]. Center for the study of intelligence, CIA.1999:97.
1 Huff, A S. A current and future agenda for cognitive research in organizations[J]. Journal of Management Studies, 1997,34(6):948.
2 Weick, K E. Sensemaking in organizations[M]. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage,1995.
3 Jenkins, M, Johnson, G. Entrepreneurial intentions and outcomes: a comparative causal mapping study[J]. Journal of Management Studies,1997,34(6):895-920.
1 Ansoff, H I. Implanting strategic management [M]. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall International,1984.
2 llmola, L, Kuusi,O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making[J].Futures, 2006, 38(8):919.3 卡尔·维克.组织社会心理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009：84.
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：89-90.
1 转引自吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：57.
2 转引自吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：57-58.
1 索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999：7.
2 索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999：14.
1 索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999：54-55.
1 Miksa, F L. Library and information science: Two paradigms[M]. London: Taylon Graham,1992.
2 师宏睿.布鲁克斯情报认知观研究[J].图书馆理论与实践.2001(6).
1 Brookes, B C. Foundation of information science(part Ⅰ):Philosophical aspects[J]. Journal of Information Science,1980(2).
2 师宏睿.贝尔金与德尔文情报认知观评述[J].图书与情报.2003(5)：12.
3 Belkin, N. Anomalous states of knowledge as a basis for information retrieval[J]. The Canadian Journal of Information Science,1985(5):133-143.
Belkin, N. Anomalous states of knowledge as a basis for information retrieval[J]. The Canadian Journal of Information Science,1985(5):133-143.
1 Dervin, B. Users as research inventions: How research categories perpetuate inequities[J]. Journal of communication,1989,39(3):216-232.
2 Dervin, B. Users as research inventions: How research categories perpetuate inequities[J]. Journal of communication,1989,39(3):216-232.
1 殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988：47.
2 转引自殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988：145.
3 海德格尔.存在与时间[M].上海：三联书店,1987：187.
4 转引自殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988：228-230.
1 吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：77-79.
2 卢西亚诺·弗洛里迪.计算信息哲学导论(上册)[M].北京：商务印书馆.2010：129,138.
1 卢西亚诺·弗洛里迪.计算信息哲学导论(上册)[M].北京：商务印书馆.2010：13m135.注Floridi将“单一数据”定义为“d=(x≠y),x和y是两个连续变量”,一个单一数据可以被理解为两个符号(x和y)之间一致性的缺失。
1 MacKay, D. Information, mechanism and meaning [M]. Cambridge, MA:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.1969.
2 吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：72-74. 注 此处的“主语-谓语”区别于一阶逻辑中的“主词-谓词”体系,一阶谓词逻辑系统只能处理具有真值的命题,只能赋值为0或1。而“主语-谓语”则更接近日常语言体系,使得认知矩阵的赋值更加灵活。而赋值问题对于认知矩阵的运算是重要的。
1 利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005：3.
1 休·考特尼.不确定性管理[M].北京：人民大学出版社,2005：45.
2 凯斯·万·德·黑伊登著,邱昭良译.情景规划[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007：98-99.
3Langlois, R N. Transaction cost economics in real time [J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,1992(1):99-112.
4 喻卫斌.不确定性和网络组织研究[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：35-36.
5 Rubin, V L. Epistemi modality: From uncertainty to certainty in the context of information seeking as interactions with texts [J]. Information Processing and Management,2010,46:533-540.
6 Geerlings, H, Rienstra, S. Exploring'weak signals' as potential challenges in transport: An inventory of potential future technology developments [J]. Transportation Plann Technology,2003,26(6):469-489.
1Thaler, R. From homo economicus to homo sapiens [J]. Journal of economic perspectives.2000(14):133-141.
2 Chugh, D, Bazerman, M H, Banaji, M R. Bounded ethicality as a psychological barrier to recognizing conflicts of interest [A]. In Moore, D A, Cain, D M, Loewenstein, G, Bazerman, M H. Conflicts of interest: problems and solutions from law, medicine and organizational settings [C]. London:Cambridge University Press.2005.
3 Bazerman, M H, Chugh, D. Focusing in negotiation [A]. In Thompson, L. Frontiers of social psychology: Negotiations [C]. London:Psychology Press.2005. 注 但在某些特殊情况是“可以”相加,前提是具有认知意义。 注 此处其实假定Qsxt必然存在,这并非必然成立的,但对于情报分析而言,真相往往是存在的,只是如何获取的问题。因此假定Qsxt存在,是一个方便理论分析,并且可以接受的假设。
1 钱学森,开展思维科学的研究[A].钱学森.关于思维科学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1986：123-156.
2 王崇德.图书情报学方法论[M].北京：科学技术文献出版社,1988：211-213.
1 蒋志凯.数字滤波与卡尔曼滤波[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1993：141.
1 Iselin, E R. The effect of information load and information diversity on decision quality in a structured decision task [J]. Accounting, Organization and Society,1988,13:147-164.
2 Iselin, E R. The impact of information diversity on information overload effects in unstructured managerial decision making [J]. Journal of Information Science,1989,15:163-173.
1Hwang, M I, Lin, J W. Informaiton dimension, information overload and decision quality [J]. Journal of Information Science,1999,25(3):213-218.
2 O'Connor, T. Intelligecne analysis[EB/OL]. http://faculty.ncwc.edu/toconnor/427/427lect04.htm.2010-06-21.
3 钱军.情报分析过程的认知研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2008：42.
1Rourke,J T.International politics on the world stage[M].Dushkin: McGraw Hill,1997:106-108.
1llmola, L, Kuusi,O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making [J]. Futures,2006,38(8):908-924.
1 何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004：287-303.
Ansoff, H I. Implanting strategic management [M], Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice Hall International, 1984 #17,57
Day, G S, Schoemaker, P J H. Peripheral vision:Detecting the weak signals that will make or break your company [M]. Boston: Harvard Business Press,2006 #20,33
Friedman, G, Friedman, M, Chapman, C, Baker, J S. The intelligence edge [M]. Crown Publishers, New York:New York #43
Godet, M. From anticipation to action:A handbook of strategic prospective [M]. Paris: UNESCO Publishing,1993 #17
Hammond, K R. Human judgment and social policy: Irreducible uncertainty, inevitable error, unavoidable injustice [M]. New York: Oxford University Press.1996
Heuer, R J. Psychology of intelligence analysis [M/OL]. Center for the study of intelligence, CIA.199954, 55,133
Kuusi, O, Hiltunen, E. The signification process of the future sign [M/OL]. Turku:Turku School of Economics,2007 #20
MacKay, D. Information, mechanism and meaning [M]. Cambridge, MA:Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.1969 #69
Masse, P. Le Plan ou I'Anti-hasard [M]. Paris:Gallimard,1965 #17
McGonagle, J J, Vella, C M. Bottom line competitive intelligence [M]. London:Quorum Books.2002 33, 40
Miksa, F L. Library and information science:Two paradigms[M]. London:Taylon Graham,1992 #63
Podolny, J M. Status signals:A sociological study of market competition [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2008 #14
Rourke,J T. International politics on the world stage [M]. Dushkin:McGraw Hill,1997 #88
Shaker, S M, Gembicki, M P. The Warroom guide to competitive intelligence [M]. New York: McGraw-Hill.1999 #45
Weick, K E. Sensemaking in organizations [M]. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage,1995 #57
马克斯·巴泽曼.管理决策中的判断[M].北京：人民邮电出版社.2007 #27
王崇德.图书情报学方法论[M].北京：科学技术文献出版社,1988 #78
王煜全, Zutshi, A情报制胜：企业竞争情报[M].北京：科学出版社.2004 #39
卡尔·维克.组织社会心理学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2009 #25
卢西亚诺·弗洛里迪.计算信息哲学导论(上册)[M].北京：商务印书馆.2010 #68
皮亚杰.发生认识论原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997 #25
休·考特尼.不确定性管理[M].北京：人民大学出版社,2005 #71
吕公礼.语言信息新论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007 #60
迈克尔·波特.竞争战略[M].北京：华夏出版社,1997 #13
何晓群.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004 #93
克里斯·韦斯特.商业竞争对手的情报收集分析评估[M].北京：中国商务出版社.2004 #38
利亚姆·费伊.竞争者：以才智、谋略与绩效取胜[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005
利奥塔著,岛子译.后现代状况：关于知识的状况[M].长沙：湖南美术出版社.1996 #48
张岳.信号：在征兆中把握应变得契机[M].北京：中国经济出版社.2006 #41
沈丽容.竞争情报——中国企业生存的第四要素[M].北京：北京图书馆出版社.2003 #28
沈固朝等编著.竞争情报的理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社.2008 #32
邱皓政,林碧芳.结构方程模型的原理与应用[M].北京：中国轻工业出版社,2009 #111
陈明哲.动态竞争[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2009 #15
凯斯·万·德·黑伊登著,邱昭良译.情景规划[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007 #71
欧内斯特·内格尔著,徐向东译.科学的结构[M].上海：上海译文出版社.2005 #48
柯克·W·M·泰森著,王玉等译.竞争情报完全指南[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005 #41
骆建彬等编著.竞争情报实务指南——知己知彼的商战方略[M].海口：南海出版公司.2005 #28
殷鼎.理解的命运[M].北京：三联书店,1988 #66
海德格尔.存在与时间[M].上海：三联书店,1987 #67
索振羽.语用学教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,1999 #61
巢乃鹏.网络受众心理行为研究——一种信息查寻的研究范式[M].北京：新华出版社,2002 #23
喻卫斌.不确定性和网络组织研究[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007 #72
蒋志凯.数字滤波与卡尔曼滤波[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1993 #81
蔡建文.情报为王：商业情报的攻防之道[M].北京：金城出版社.2008 #43
Aaltonen, M. Multi-ontology, sense-making and the emergence of the future[J]. Futures,2009,41(5) #26
Bazerman, M H, Chugh, D. Focusing in negotiation [A]. In Thompson, L. Frontiers of social psychology: Negotiations [C], London: Psychology Press.2005 #73
Belkin, N. Anomalous states of knowledge as a basis for information retrieval[J]. The Canadian Journal of Information Science,1985(5) #64,65
Blanco, S, Lesca, H. Business Intelligence:Integrating Knowledge into Selection of Early Warning Signals [EB/OL].
http://veille-strategique.eolas-services.com/docs/1998-Blanco-Lesca-Articlewksp.pdf.2006-03-03 #17
Boush, D M, Kahle, L. Evaluating negative information in online consumer discussions:From qualitative analysis to signal detection [J]. Journal of Euromarketing,2002,11(2) #16
Bright, J R. Evaluating signals of technological change [J]. Harvard Business Review,1970(1) #18
Brookes, B C. Foundation of information science(part I): Philosophical aspects[J]. Journal of Information Science,1980(2) #64
Chatterjee, S, Kang, Y S, Mishra, D P. Market signals and relative preference: the moderating effects of conflicting information, decision focus, and need for cognition [J]. Journal of Business Research, 2005,58 #16
Chen M J, MacMillan, I C. Nonresponse and Delayed Response to Competitive Moves:The Role of Competitor Dependence and Action Irreversibility [J]. Academy of Management Journal,1992,35 14
Chen M J, Venkataraman, S, Black, S S, MacMillan, I C. The role of irreversibilities in competitive interaction:Behavioral considerations from organization theory [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics,2002,23 #14
Choo, C W. Information use and early warning effectiveness: Perspectives and prospects [J]. Journal of the American Society for Information Sciense and Technology,2009,60(5) #11
Chugh, D, Bazerman, M H, Banaji, M R. Bounded ethicality as a psychological barrier to recognizing conflicts of interest [A]. In Moore, D A, Cain, D M, Loewenstein, G, Bazerman, M H. Conflicts of interest: problems and solutions from law, medicine and organizational settings [C]. London: Cambridge University Press.2005 #73
Dasgupta, N, Schnoll, S H. Signal detection in post-marketing surveillance for controlled substances [J]. Drug and Alcohol Dependence,2009,105 #22
Dervin, B. Users as research inventions:How research categories perpetuate inequities[J]. Journal of communication,1989,39(3) #65
Dou Bin. The impact of marketing signal on the profitability of decision-making under dynamic competitive [EB/OL]. http://www.seiofbluemountain.com/search/detail.php?id=641.2010-08-2015
Eliashberg, J, Robertson, T S. New Product Pre-announcing Behavior: A Market Signaling Study [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1988(3) #14
Engers, M. Signaling with Many Signals [J]. Econo-metrica,1987(3)
Feldman, M S, March, J G. Information in organizations as signal and symbol [J]. Administrative Science Quarterly,1981,26 #37
Geerlings, H, Rienstra, S. Exploring'weak signals'as potential challenges in transport:An inventory of potential future technology developments [J]. Transportation Plann Technology,2003,26(6) #72
Haeckel, S H. Peripheral vision:Sensing and acting on weak signals making meaning out of apparent noise:The need for a new managerial framework [J]. Long Range Planning,2004,37 #20
Hawes, T. Competitive intelligence signal-to-noise [EB/OL]. http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/02/22/competitive-intelligence-signal-to-noise/.2010-02-22 #20
Heil, O, Robertson, T S. Towards a theory of competitive market signaling:a research agenda [J]. Strategic Management Journal.1991(6) #13
Henegar, C, Bousquet, C, Louet, A L-L, Degoulet, P, Jaulent, M-C. A knowledge based approach for automated signal generation in pharmacovigilance [A]. Fieschi, M et al.. MEDINFO [C]. Amsterdam: IOS Press,2004 #22
Herbig, P, Milewicz, J. Marketing Signals in Service Industries [J]. The Journal of Services Marketing, 1994(2) #14
Hiltunen, E. Good sources of weak signals: A global study of where futurists look for weak signals [J]. Journal of Futures Studies,200812(4) #43
Hiltunen, E. The future sign and its three dimensions [J].Futures,2008,40 #10
Hiltunen, E. Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change? [J]. Journal of Futures Studies, 2006,11(2) #17
Huff, A S. A current and future agenda for cognitive research in organizations[J]. Journal of Management Studies,1997,34(6) #57
Hwang, M I, Lin, J W. Informaiton dimension, information overload and decision quality [J]. Journal of Information Science,1999,25(3) #87
llmola, L, Kuusi,O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making [J]. Futures,2006,38(8) #57,89
Iselin, E R. The effect of information load and information diversity on decision quality in a structured decision task [J]. Accounting, Organization and Society,1988,13 #86
Iselin, E R. The impact of information diversity on information overload effects in unstructured managerial decision making [J]. Journal of Information Science,1989,15 #86
Jenkins, M, Johnson, G. Entrepreneurial intentions and outcomes:a comparative causal mapping study[J]. Journal of Management Studies,1997,34(6) #57
Kihlstrom, R E, Riordan, M E. Advertising as a Signal [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1984(3) #12
Kuosa, T. Futures Signals Sense-making Framework (FSSF): A Start-up Tool to Analyse and Categorise Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Drivers, Trends and other Types of Information [J]. Futures,2010(1) #20
Langlois, R N. Transaction cost economics in real time [J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,1992(1).71
McFall, R M, Treat, T A. Quantifying the information value of clinical assessments with signal detection theory [J]. Annual Review of Psychology,1999,50 #11
Melnik, M I, Alm, J. Seller reputation, information signals, and prices for heterogeneous coins on eBay [J]. Southern Economic Journal,2005,72(2) #13
Mendonca, S, Pina e Cunha, M, Kaivo-oja, J, Ruff, F. Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation[J]. Futures,2004,36(2) #26
Milewicz, J, Herbig, P. A quantitative analysis of the relative efficiency between overt and covert market signals [J]. Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,1997,5(4) #14
Nelson, P. Advertising as Information [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1974(4) #12
Powell, T W. Analysis in business planning and strategy formulation [A]. In Gilad, B, Herring, J P. The Art and Science of Business Intelligence Analysis: Business Intelligence Theory, Principles, Practices, and Uses [C]. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.1996 #47
Prabhu, J, Stewart, D W. Signaling Strategies in Competitive Interaction: Building Reputations and Hiding the Truth [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,2001(1) #15
Rao, A R, Qu, L, Ruekert, R W. Signaling unobservable product quality through a brand ally [J]. Journal of Marketing Research,1999,36 #16
Riley, J G. Competitive Signaling [J]. Journal of Economic Theory,1975(2) #12
Rodriguez, C, Daniel, F, Casati, F, Cappiello, C. Toward uncertain business intelligence:The case of key indicators [J]. Internet Computing,201014,(4) #44
Rothwell, K E. Early warning indicators [J]. Competitive Intelligence,2010,13(1) #44
Rubin, V L Epistemi modality:From uncertainty to certainty in the context of information seeking as interactions with texts [J]. Information Processing and Management,2010,46 #72
Saritas, O, Smith, J E. The big picture:Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontiniuities and weak signals [J]. Futures,2011,43(3) #18
Sharkey, J B, Mack, G, Weishar, D. A signal processing model for structuring a transaction-based information system for early warning [A]. D A Williamson.2003 IEEE Aerospace Conference[C]. IEEE Aerospace and Electronics Systems Society,2003(6) #21
Spence, A M. Job Market Signaling [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973 #12
Swets, J A, Dawes, R M, Monahan, J. Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions [J]. Psychological Science in the Public Interest,2000(1) #11
Thaler, R. From homo economicus to homo sapiens [J]. Journal of economic perspectives.2000(14).72
Uskali, T. Paying attention to weak signals:The key concept for innovation journalism [J]. Innovation Journalism,2005,2(4) #18
Vaghely, I, Julien, P-A, Carrier, C. Innovation, information and the information catalyst in SMEs [EB/OL]. http://www.sbaer.uca.edu/research/icsb/2004/paper48.pdf.2011-03-21 #46
What is a safety signal [EB/OL]. http://www.pfizer.com/files/health/medicine_safety/2-4_What_is_a_Safety_Signal.pdf.2011-03-06 ..22
马迎春.竞争对手情报搜集与竞争力评价指标体系研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2004 #29
王曰芬,甘利人.竞争对手的情报研究[J].情报理论与实践.2001(4) #29
冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作,2007,51(2) #47
冯维扬.竞争信息质量评价体系研究[J].图书情报工作.2007(2) #50
包昌火,谢新洲,李艳.竞争对手分析论纲[J].情报学报.2003,22(1) #29
乔欢,周舟.意义构建理论要义评析[J].图书馆杂志,2007,26(5) #25
刘千里,童悦.信号分析的若干理论与方法探析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
师宏睿.贝尔金与德尔文情报认知观评述[J].图书与情报.2003(5) #64
师宏睿.布鲁克斯情报认知观研究[J].图书馆理论与实践.2001(6) #63
张岚岚,许鑫.企业竞争情报中弱信号获取及其影响因素[J].图书情报工作,2010,54(14) #9
杨娟.竞争情报在不完全信息条件下的征兆分析[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2007 #42
汪克夷,冯桂平.基于市场信号的竞争反应预测[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(3) #15
沈固朝.信号分析：竞争情报研究的又一重要课题[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
郑雨明.决策判断中认知偏差及其干预策略[J].统计与决策.2007(5) #54
赵小康.弱信号：识别、探测与应对[J].情报杂志,2010,29(1) #9
赵小康.基于弱信号的企业竞争情报搜集[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
钱军.情报分析过程的认知研究[D].南京：南京大学信息管理系,2008 #87
钱学森.开展思维科学的研究[A].钱学森.关于思维科学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1986 #78
章琰.作为“过程”的技术[J].自然辩证法研究.2004,20(3) #31
彭靖里,赵光洲.战略管理中“市场信号”与竞争情报的关系探析[J].情报杂志,2011,30(3) #9
董悦,赵小康,刘彦祖.技术预见中的信号分析[J].图书情报工作,2009,53(20) #9
Boulding, W. The Optimal Production of Product Quality [R]. Duke University,1989 #11
Hiltunen, E. The futures window: A medium for presenting visual weak signals to trigger employees' futures thinking in organizations [R], W-423. Helsinki:Helsinki School of Economics,2007 #16
Hiltunen, E. Weak signals in organizational futures [R], A-365. Helsinki:Helsinki School of Economics, 2010 #32
Marrs, R. Early warning signals:A conversation for exploration [EB/OL]. http://www.altamontcg.com/Documents/Early_Warning_Signals_Conversation_.pdf.2011-05-0216
all-source intelligence. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/all-source+intelligence[EB/OL].2010-5-433
现代战场传感神经：机动通信http://www.people.com.cn/GB/junshi/1078/2224510.html[EB/OL].2010-10-4 #34
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |