基于可靠度的裂隙岩质边坡稳定性评价
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摘要
拟建的吉林靖宇核电厂,厂址位于吉林省东南部白山市靖宇县赤松乡岗顶村南侧,头道松花江白山水库左岸的台地上。初步拟定的一期主厂房地段整平高程为528.30m,边坡高差达100余米,在靠近坡顶的台地边缘多呈陡崖,边坡岩体受到多组结构面的切割其结构比较复杂。由于本次研究的边坡不仅会直接涉及到冷却塔的稳定性,也会对整个核电工程的安全带来巨大的影响。因此,将吉林靖宇核电厂赤松厂址南部边坡视为I级边坡工程,研究其边坡的稳定性将具有十分重要的意义。
本文在获取研究区详细地质资料的基础上,采用概率统计理论研究了边坡结构面的优势分组,分析了边坡的岩体结构特征,并综合地运用动力学稳定性分析与赤平投影分析的方法对裂隙岩体的失效模式----潜在最危险滑动面进行了搜索和确定。在此基础上,依据可靠度理论,通过蒙特卡洛法与拉丁超立方体方法以七种概率分布函数建立了该岩质边坡岩体的抗剪强度参数样本,构造了相应的功能函数,进而计算出边坡的破坏概率,获得了可以用于岩质边坡稳定性分析的可靠度模型。本文大致完成了以下几个方面的工作:
首先,论文详细地论述了调查区的区域地质、水文地质、工程地质条件、环境地质条件。根据2007年8～9月份的野外地质调查,详细介绍了吉林靖宇核电厂工程概况、地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、水文地质条件、地质物理现象等等。
其次,论文分析了影响边坡稳定的主要因素----节理与岩体结构的特征:1)根据现场节理的调查,对节理裂隙几何形态、节理面特征、节理、裂隙的拉张松弛状况、充填物状况来进行了研究。2)为寻找出对岩体稳定性起控制作用的随机结构面,本文采用基于概率统计理论的随机结构面优势级数划分方法,对岩体随机结构面进行优势组划分。3)根据岩体边坡稳定性受结构面控制的原理,对边坡的岩体结构特征进行了总体分析。
第三,系统阐述了可靠度的基本理论,主要包括可靠度的随机变量、极限状态方程、可靠度、可靠性指标等基本概念,以及可靠度的几种计算方法----一次二阶矩法、响应面法和本文所采用的蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)法、拉丁超立方体法与贝叶斯统计方法。
第四,本文探讨了岩质边坡的失效模式—潜在最危险滑动面,并综合运用动力学稳定性分析与赤平投影分析方法来确定裂隙岩体的最危险滑动面。通过对边坡陡崖上可能出现的不利结构面组合的单滑面与楔形体进行了分析,给出了相应的滑动面滑动方向与倾伏角。
第五,对于所确定的最危险滑动面的倾角值,采用贝叶斯公式进行了期望值值估计、区间估计,并以可靠度理论验证了所取值的合理性。
第六,根据岩体结构面的结合程度确定了岩体抗剪强度的分布参数,通过蒙特卡洛法与拉丁超立方体方法以均匀分布、正态分布、指数分布、对数正态分布、Gamma分布、Beta分布、三角分布形式分别获得到抗剪强度的样本,对比了两方法的收敛效率,研究了七种概率分布对边坡稳定程度的影响。
第七,在边坡的失效模式—确定的潜在最危险滑动面基础上,构造了其相应的功能函数和极限状态方程,采用拉丁超立方体方法计算出边坡体的破坏概率,得到了边坡结构可靠度分析模型。通过实例验证,本方法可以有效地提高边坡可靠度,对边坡可靠度的研究提供一定的参考价值。
最后,用二维有限元软件对岩质边坡的形成历史进行了全过程机制模拟,包括河谷下切不同阶段的应力场(主应力、剪应力)的模拟、位移场变形和屈服单元的变化情况。通过有限元模拟分析,了解边坡现阶段的稳定程度。
The proposed Jilin Jingyu nuclear power plant is located in the tableland which on the left bank of the head way the Songhua river Baishan reservoir, in south of Gangdingcun, Chisongxiang, Jingyuxian, in the southeast of Jilin province.The draw up leveling elevation of the first phase of the preliminary main workshop area is about 528.30 m. Because of the slope in the research is directly related to the stability of the cooling tower in nuclear power project, and Baishan reservoir natural slope over the water level is reach to 100 meters, the tableland near the top of the slope present a steep cliff type, slope rock mass structure of the group were cutting by groups structural plane and its structure is complex, the stability degree of the natural slope has direct influence on the safely of the whole nuclear power project. So, the site of Jinli Jingyu nuclear power plant is took as class I slope engineering, and the study of the slope stability is very important.
This article start from the structure characteristics of the fractured rock mass slope, in the foundation of detailed the geological data in research area, work on the failure mode-sliding surface of the slope, using dynamic stability analysis and stereographic projection analysis to search and determine the most dangerous sliding face of the fractured rock mass. And according to the reliability theory, through the Monte Carlo method and Latin hyper cubes method to establish the sample of the shear strength parameters, constructed the function, obtain model which can be used in the analysis of the reliability of the slope structure. Based on the above research results, he failure mode of searching and reliability calculation based on the fractured rock mass is put forward. The concrete content as follows:
First, the paper discusses regional geological, hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions and environmental geological condition in the research area in details. The geological survey in June to September in 2007 introduced the Jingyu nuclear power plant project in summary, landform, rocks, geological structure, hydrology geology condition, physic-geologic phenomena, etc.
Second, the paper analyses the main factors influencing slope stability and inducing factors, the rock mass structure characteristics and joints: 1)According to the survey of joints, the joints and fissures geometric shape, and joint planes characteristics, arid joints and fractures extensional status, fillings condition were studied. 2)For the stability of rock mass in the control effect of random structure surface, the paper based on the probability and statistics theories of random structure surface advantage method to partition series, divide random structure of rock face of advantage into groups. 4) According to the stability of the slope rock mass structure, analyze the overall characteristic of the slope rock mass structure.
Third, this paper expounds the basic theory of reliability, mainly includes the basic concepts of the reliability of basic random variables, limit state equation, reliability, the reliability index etc. the reliability of the four kinds of common calculation methods are introduced such as a first order second moment method, , the response surface method, Monte Carlo (Monte Carlo) method Latin hyper cubes adopts in the paper detailed.
Fourth, the paper in fractured rock's most dangerous sliding face search and determined. Using of dynamic stability analysis and stereographic projection analysis method to determine the fractured rock mass of the most dangerous sliding surface. Through to the slope steep cliff may appear on the surface of the adverse structure combination of single slide face and body wedge are analyzed, and gives corresponding sliding surface sliding direction and loose v Angle.
Fifth, the dip angle of the most dangerous sliding surface is improved using Bayesian estimation method.
Sixth, according to the combination level of rock mass structure set up the distribution parameters of structure surface shear strength; through the Monte Carlo method and Latin hypercube method establish the samples of the shear strength parameters. To contrast the convergence efficiency of the two methods, it studies the influence of shear strength parameters form in uniform distribution, normal distribution, the index distribution, logarithmic normal distribution, Gamma distribution, Beta distribution, triangle distribution on stability of the slope.
Seventh, based on t he slope of the failure mode ( the potential sliding surface), performance function and limit state equation are constructed. Finally, the slope of the failure probability is calculated that through the Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube method to get the slope structural reliability analysis model Verified by example, this method can effectively improve the reliability of the slope, the study of slope reliability has certain significance.
Finally, the formation of rock slope history is simulated in the whole process mechanism, including the change of the valley slice different stages of the stress field (principal stress and the shear stress), displacement field deformation and yield unit. Through the finite element simulation analysis, understand the present stage of the stability of the slope.
本文在获取研究区详细地质资料的基础上,采用概率统计理论研究了边坡结构面的优势分组,分析了边坡的岩体结构特征,并综合地运用动力学稳定性分析与赤平投影分析的方法对裂隙岩体的失效模式----潜在最危险滑动面进行了搜索和确定。在此基础上,依据可靠度理论,通过蒙特卡洛法与拉丁超立方体方法以七种概率分布函数建立了该岩质边坡岩体的抗剪强度参数样本,构造了相应的功能函数,进而计算出边坡的破坏概率,获得了可以用于岩质边坡稳定性分析的可靠度模型。本文大致完成了以下几个方面的工作:
首先,论文详细地论述了调查区的区域地质、水文地质、工程地质条件、环境地质条件。根据2007年8～9月份的野外地质调查,详细介绍了吉林靖宇核电厂工程概况、地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、水文地质条件、地质物理现象等等。
其次,论文分析了影响边坡稳定的主要因素----节理与岩体结构的特征:1)根据现场节理的调查,对节理裂隙几何形态、节理面特征、节理、裂隙的拉张松弛状况、充填物状况来进行了研究。2)为寻找出对岩体稳定性起控制作用的随机结构面,本文采用基于概率统计理论的随机结构面优势级数划分方法,对岩体随机结构面进行优势组划分。3)根据岩体边坡稳定性受结构面控制的原理,对边坡的岩体结构特征进行了总体分析。
第三,系统阐述了可靠度的基本理论,主要包括可靠度的随机变量、极限状态方程、可靠度、可靠性指标等基本概念,以及可靠度的几种计算方法----一次二阶矩法、响应面法和本文所采用的蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)法、拉丁超立方体法与贝叶斯统计方法。
第四,本文探讨了岩质边坡的失效模式—潜在最危险滑动面,并综合运用动力学稳定性分析与赤平投影分析方法来确定裂隙岩体的最危险滑动面。通过对边坡陡崖上可能出现的不利结构面组合的单滑面与楔形体进行了分析,给出了相应的滑动面滑动方向与倾伏角。
第五,对于所确定的最危险滑动面的倾角值,采用贝叶斯公式进行了期望值值估计、区间估计,并以可靠度理论验证了所取值的合理性。
第六,根据岩体结构面的结合程度确定了岩体抗剪强度的分布参数,通过蒙特卡洛法与拉丁超立方体方法以均匀分布、正态分布、指数分布、对数正态分布、Gamma分布、Beta分布、三角分布形式分别获得到抗剪强度的样本,对比了两方法的收敛效率,研究了七种概率分布对边坡稳定程度的影响。
第七,在边坡的失效模式—确定的潜在最危险滑动面基础上,构造了其相应的功能函数和极限状态方程,采用拉丁超立方体方法计算出边坡体的破坏概率,得到了边坡结构可靠度分析模型。通过实例验证,本方法可以有效地提高边坡可靠度,对边坡可靠度的研究提供一定的参考价值。
最后,用二维有限元软件对岩质边坡的形成历史进行了全过程机制模拟,包括河谷下切不同阶段的应力场(主应力、剪应力)的模拟、位移场变形和屈服单元的变化情况。通过有限元模拟分析,了解边坡现阶段的稳定程度。
The proposed Jilin Jingyu nuclear power plant is located in the tableland which on the left bank of the head way the Songhua river Baishan reservoir, in south of Gangdingcun, Chisongxiang, Jingyuxian, in the southeast of Jilin province.The draw up leveling elevation of the first phase of the preliminary main workshop area is about 528.30 m. Because of the slope in the research is directly related to the stability of the cooling tower in nuclear power project, and Baishan reservoir natural slope over the water level is reach to 100 meters, the tableland near the top of the slope present a steep cliff type, slope rock mass structure of the group were cutting by groups structural plane and its structure is complex, the stability degree of the natural slope has direct influence on the safely of the whole nuclear power project. So, the site of Jinli Jingyu nuclear power plant is took as class I slope engineering, and the study of the slope stability is very important.
This article start from the structure characteristics of the fractured rock mass slope, in the foundation of detailed the geological data in research area, work on the failure mode-sliding surface of the slope, using dynamic stability analysis and stereographic projection analysis to search and determine the most dangerous sliding face of the fractured rock mass. And according to the reliability theory, through the Monte Carlo method and Latin hyper cubes method to establish the sample of the shear strength parameters, constructed the function, obtain model which can be used in the analysis of the reliability of the slope structure. Based on the above research results, he failure mode of searching and reliability calculation based on the fractured rock mass is put forward. The concrete content as follows:
First, the paper discusses regional geological, hydrogeological and engineering geological conditions and environmental geological condition in the research area in details. The geological survey in June to September in 2007 introduced the Jingyu nuclear power plant project in summary, landform, rocks, geological structure, hydrology geology condition, physic-geologic phenomena, etc.
Second, the paper analyses the main factors influencing slope stability and inducing factors, the rock mass structure characteristics and joints: 1)According to the survey of joints, the joints and fissures geometric shape, and joint planes characteristics, arid joints and fractures extensional status, fillings condition were studied. 2)For the stability of rock mass in the control effect of random structure surface, the paper based on the probability and statistics theories of random structure surface advantage method to partition series, divide random structure of rock face of advantage into groups. 4) According to the stability of the slope rock mass structure, analyze the overall characteristic of the slope rock mass structure.
Third, this paper expounds the basic theory of reliability, mainly includes the basic concepts of the reliability of basic random variables, limit state equation, reliability, the reliability index etc. the reliability of the four kinds of common calculation methods are introduced such as a first order second moment method, , the response surface method, Monte Carlo (Monte Carlo) method Latin hyper cubes adopts in the paper detailed.
Fourth, the paper in fractured rock's most dangerous sliding face search and determined. Using of dynamic stability analysis and stereographic projection analysis method to determine the fractured rock mass of the most dangerous sliding surface. Through to the slope steep cliff may appear on the surface of the adverse structure combination of single slide face and body wedge are analyzed, and gives corresponding sliding surface sliding direction and loose v Angle.
Fifth, the dip angle of the most dangerous sliding surface is improved using Bayesian estimation method.
Sixth, according to the combination level of rock mass structure set up the distribution parameters of structure surface shear strength; through the Monte Carlo method and Latin hypercube method establish the samples of the shear strength parameters. To contrast the convergence efficiency of the two methods, it studies the influence of shear strength parameters form in uniform distribution, normal distribution, the index distribution, logarithmic normal distribution, Gamma distribution, Beta distribution, triangle distribution on stability of the slope.
Seventh, based on t he slope of the failure mode ( the potential sliding surface), performance function and limit state equation are constructed. Finally, the slope of the failure probability is calculated that through the Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube method to get the slope structural reliability analysis model Verified by example, this method can effectively improve the reliability of the slope, the study of slope reliability has certain significance.
Finally, the formation of rock slope history is simulated in the whole process mechanism, including the change of the valley slice different stages of the stress field (principal stress and the shear stress), displacement field deformation and yield unit. Through the finite element simulation analysis, understand the present stage of the stability of the slope.
引文
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