中国货币政策股票市场传导机制研究
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摘要
20世纪90年代以来,随着我国经济的迅速发展和市场经济体制改革向纵深推进,我国股票市场得到了迅速发展,对国民经济的影响日益加深,货币政策传导机制受到严重挑战。世界上许多国家都经历过股票价格大幅波动给国民经济带来的巨大危害,所以基于本国现实对货币政策股票市场传导机制进行研究变得日益紧迫。
本文首先阐明货币政策传导机制内涵,对传统货币政策传导机制理论进行简要回顾和分析,在此基础上详细介绍了货币政策股票市场传导机制理论和国内外实证研究现状,理清了中央银行货币政策通过股票市场影响到实体经济的机理。
然后,基于我国现实,回顾了我国货币政策传导机制的演变和特征、我国货币总量与结构、股票市场发展的阶段、规模和特征以及实体经济的基本发展状况,较为直观地剖析了中国货币政策股票市场传导机制相关环节的现实运行状况。
再次,把货币政策的股票市场传导机制分成从货币政策到股票市场和从股票市场到实体经济两个阶段,利用本国数据分阶段实证分析了中国货币政策的股票市场传导机制,得出结论:我国货币政策到股票市场的传导基本通畅,我国货币政策通过股票市场传导到实体经济的效应在现阶段并不明显,并且针对性的探讨了影响我国货币政策股票市场传导机制的因素。
最后,根据我国货币政策股票市场传导机制中存在的问题,提出完善我国货币政策股票市场传导机制、提高我国货币政策股票市场传导机制有效性的对策。
Since the 1990s, Stock market of our country has rapidly developped with the high development of economy and the market economic system reform , influenced our national economy profoundly day by day . The monetary transmission mechanism receives serious challenge. Many countries in the world have experienced the harmful consequences which severe fluctuation of the stock price brings.Therefore,it’s urgent and meaningful to do research with our country’s monetary transmission mechanism of stock market based on our own reality.
In this paper,we first give explanation to the content of the monetary transmission mechanism,review and analyse the traditional monetary transmission mechanism theories.On this basis,we introduce the theories and empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market in detail,cleared off the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market channel through which monetary policy influences the entity economy. Second,based on our own reality,we review the change and development of our country’s monetary transmission mechanism,the money supply and it’s structure,the stock market development stage and it’s characterstic and the development of the entity economy-to recognize the circumstances of the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market straight-forwardly.
Third,we separate the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market into two parts:how monetary policy influences stock market and how stock market influences entity economy.From the empirical study of monetary transmission mechanism of stock market based on our own data,we concluded:monetary policy can influence stock market efficiently,but stock market has little,even no influence on investment and consumption.From the conclusion,we discuss the possible reasons which may restrict the influence of the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market.
Finally,after the analysis on the existing problems,we give suggestions and advices to perfect the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market,so as to raise the efficiency of this monetary transmission mechanism.
本文首先阐明货币政策传导机制内涵,对传统货币政策传导机制理论进行简要回顾和分析,在此基础上详细介绍了货币政策股票市场传导机制理论和国内外实证研究现状,理清了中央银行货币政策通过股票市场影响到实体经济的机理。
然后,基于我国现实,回顾了我国货币政策传导机制的演变和特征、我国货币总量与结构、股票市场发展的阶段、规模和特征以及实体经济的基本发展状况,较为直观地剖析了中国货币政策股票市场传导机制相关环节的现实运行状况。
再次,把货币政策的股票市场传导机制分成从货币政策到股票市场和从股票市场到实体经济两个阶段,利用本国数据分阶段实证分析了中国货币政策的股票市场传导机制,得出结论:我国货币政策到股票市场的传导基本通畅,我国货币政策通过股票市场传导到实体经济的效应在现阶段并不明显,并且针对性的探讨了影响我国货币政策股票市场传导机制的因素。
最后,根据我国货币政策股票市场传导机制中存在的问题,提出完善我国货币政策股票市场传导机制、提高我国货币政策股票市场传导机制有效性的对策。
Since the 1990s, Stock market of our country has rapidly developped with the high development of economy and the market economic system reform , influenced our national economy profoundly day by day . The monetary transmission mechanism receives serious challenge. Many countries in the world have experienced the harmful consequences which severe fluctuation of the stock price brings.Therefore,it’s urgent and meaningful to do research with our country’s monetary transmission mechanism of stock market based on our own reality.
In this paper,we first give explanation to the content of the monetary transmission mechanism,review and analyse the traditional monetary transmission mechanism theories.On this basis,we introduce the theories and empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market in detail,cleared off the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market channel through which monetary policy influences the entity economy. Second,based on our own reality,we review the change and development of our country’s monetary transmission mechanism,the money supply and it’s structure,the stock market development stage and it’s characterstic and the development of the entity economy-to recognize the circumstances of the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market straight-forwardly.
Third,we separate the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market into two parts:how monetary policy influences stock market and how stock market influences entity economy.From the empirical study of monetary transmission mechanism of stock market based on our own data,we concluded:monetary policy can influence stock market efficiently,but stock market has little,even no influence on investment and consumption.From the conclusion,we discuss the possible reasons which may restrict the influence of the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market.
Finally,after the analysis on the existing problems,we give suggestions and advices to perfect the monetary transmission mechanism of stock market,so as to raise the efficiency of this monetary transmission mechanism.
引文
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