交通事件持续期内的出行者路径选择行为研究
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摘要
交通事件是可能引起路网通行能力降低和道路服务水平下降的非正常事件。一旦发生会导致道路通行能力急剧降低,不仅会引起交通延误,增加个体出行的交通成本,还会诱发二次事件,造成环境污染。国内针对交通事件持续期内出行行为的研究还是空白,因此,对交通事件持续期内出行行为特征的分析与研究,不仅可以更为深刻地理解事件持续期的交通特性；还可以对城市应急管理措施实施的可行性、实施效果,以及对交通系统、环境、社会造成的影响进行预评估分析。研究交通事件持续期内的出行行为,可以提高应急事件管理的水平,最大程度地合理配置现有资源,提高路网的服务水平。
本论文在分析交通事件持续期内出行者的行为特征的基础上,基于Mixed Logit模型构建了交通事件持续期内的路径选择模型。首先对交通事件按不同的分类方法进行了划分,探讨了出行者的出行动态认知和决策是一个不断学习和调整的过程。然后分别从心理特征、事件类型、出行状态和事件位置等方面分析了出行者的行为特征。其次,根据SP调查的结果,对交通事件持续期内出行者的出行行为特征进行描述性统计分析以及涉及变量之间的联系特征分析。最后,在此基础上本文基于多项Logit和Mixed Logit建立了交通事件持续期内出行者路径选择决策的描述性模型,并通过实例调查对比,验证了Mixed Logit模型下的路径选择决策模型更加接近现实出行。
分析结果表明,交通事件的位置和交通信息是影响路径选择行为的主要因素。性别、事件位置和出行状态三个变量参数服从均匀分布,路径选择时考虑的因素、交通信息和事件类型三个变量参数服从正态分布,其余变量参数为固定值的Mixed Logit模型适用于研究交通事件持续期内的路径选择行为。研究结果对于制定交通事件下的应急事件管理策略和信息发布策略具有一定的现实意义。
Traffic incident is the non-normal events what happens on the road and results in reduction of the capacity and the service level of the road. In case of incident, highway capacity would lead to the sharp reduction, which not only causes traffic delay and increases travel cost, but induces secondary incident and environmental pollution. The applied study of travel behavior during traffic incident has not been reported in china, so the analysis for travel behavior during traffic incident is not only for excellent understanding of traffic characteristic, but also for evaluating the feasibility of emergency management and the influence of traffic system, environment and society. Research on travel behavior during traffic incident could raise emergency incident management level and upgrade the service level of road network by dispatching resources appropriately to the fullest extent possible.
In this paper, based on the analysis of the travel behavior under the influence of traffic incident, a route choice model based on mixed logit model is presented and calibrated in this paper. Firstly, traffic incident has been classified by different standards, then the travelers' dynamic cognitive and decision process is given out in the thesis, which is a continuing learning and readjusting process. Behaviour trait of traveler is analyzed in terms of psychological characteristics, incident type, trip state, incident position. Secondly, according to the SP survey, the descriptive statistical analysis and relation characteristics analysis between variables are studied. Finally, on this basis, the mixed logit model and the multinomial logit model are builded, which can describe travelers'route choice during traffic incident. By sample analysis, the route choice model based on mixed logit is much closer to the actual trip.
The results show that the main factors which affect the route choice behavior are incident position and traffic information. The mixed logit is applied to route choice research during traffic incident, where the coefficient of sex, location and status are uniformly distributed, the coefficient of the factor of route choice and traffic information are normally distributed and the rest are fixed. The results for devising emergency incident management tactics and information release strategies have certain practical significance.
本论文在分析交通事件持续期内出行者的行为特征的基础上,基于Mixed Logit模型构建了交通事件持续期内的路径选择模型。首先对交通事件按不同的分类方法进行了划分,探讨了出行者的出行动态认知和决策是一个不断学习和调整的过程。然后分别从心理特征、事件类型、出行状态和事件位置等方面分析了出行者的行为特征。其次,根据SP调查的结果,对交通事件持续期内出行者的出行行为特征进行描述性统计分析以及涉及变量之间的联系特征分析。最后,在此基础上本文基于多项Logit和Mixed Logit建立了交通事件持续期内出行者路径选择决策的描述性模型,并通过实例调查对比,验证了Mixed Logit模型下的路径选择决策模型更加接近现实出行。
分析结果表明,交通事件的位置和交通信息是影响路径选择行为的主要因素。性别、事件位置和出行状态三个变量参数服从均匀分布,路径选择时考虑的因素、交通信息和事件类型三个变量参数服从正态分布,其余变量参数为固定值的Mixed Logit模型适用于研究交通事件持续期内的路径选择行为。研究结果对于制定交通事件下的应急事件管理策略和信息发布策略具有一定的现实意义。
Traffic incident is the non-normal events what happens on the road and results in reduction of the capacity and the service level of the road. In case of incident, highway capacity would lead to the sharp reduction, which not only causes traffic delay and increases travel cost, but induces secondary incident and environmental pollution. The applied study of travel behavior during traffic incident has not been reported in china, so the analysis for travel behavior during traffic incident is not only for excellent understanding of traffic characteristic, but also for evaluating the feasibility of emergency management and the influence of traffic system, environment and society. Research on travel behavior during traffic incident could raise emergency incident management level and upgrade the service level of road network by dispatching resources appropriately to the fullest extent possible.
In this paper, based on the analysis of the travel behavior under the influence of traffic incident, a route choice model based on mixed logit model is presented and calibrated in this paper. Firstly, traffic incident has been classified by different standards, then the travelers' dynamic cognitive and decision process is given out in the thesis, which is a continuing learning and readjusting process. Behaviour trait of traveler is analyzed in terms of psychological characteristics, incident type, trip state, incident position. Secondly, according to the SP survey, the descriptive statistical analysis and relation characteristics analysis between variables are studied. Finally, on this basis, the mixed logit model and the multinomial logit model are builded, which can describe travelers'route choice during traffic incident. By sample analysis, the route choice model based on mixed logit is much closer to the actual trip.
The results show that the main factors which affect the route choice behavior are incident position and traffic information. The mixed logit is applied to route choice research during traffic incident, where the coefficient of sex, location and status are uniformly distributed, the coefficient of the factor of route choice and traffic information are normally distributed and the rest are fixed. The results for devising emergency incident management tactics and information release strategies have certain practical significance.
引文
[1]Traffic Incident Management Handbook[M]. Federal Highway Administration Office of Travel Management. 2000
[2]Do H. Nam, Donanld R. Drew. Analyzing Freeway Traffic Under Congestion:Traffic Dynamics Approach[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering,1998.124(3):208-217
[3]Knoop, V.L., Van Zuylen, H.J. and Hoogendoorn, S.P. Microscopic Traffic Behavior near Accidents[A]. Proceedings of the 18th international symposium of transportation and traffic theory.2009
[4]Koo, R. and Yim, Y. Commuter Response to Traffic Information on an Incident[D]. Technical Report UCB-ITS-PWP-98-26,University of California, Berkely.1998
[5]Jou, R.-C, Lam, S.-H., Liu, Y.-H., and Chen, K.-H. Route switching behavior on freeways with the provision of different types of real-time traffic information[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice.2005,39(5):445-461
[6]Kraan,M..Van der Zijpp,N., Tutert, B., Vonk,T., and Van Megen,D. Evaluating Network wide Effects of Variable Message Signs in the Netherlands[J]. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1999,1689:60-67
[7]Knoop, V.L., Hoogendoorn, S.P. and Van Zuylen, H.J. Route Choice Under Exceptional Traffic Conditions[J]. International Conference on Evacuation Management.2009,23-25
[8]Doohee, N. Incident Induced Congestion:An Exploratory Analysis of Traveler Perceptions and Information Needs[J]. Transportation Research Board.2000
[9]Andre De Palma and Denis Rochat. Understanding individual travel decisions:results from a commuters survey in Geneva [J]. Transportation.1998,26(3):263-281
[10]Chatterjee, K., Hounsell, N.B., Firmin, RE. and Bonsall, P.W. Driver response to variable message Sign information in London[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies.2000.10(2):149-169
[11]Malta, L., C. Miyajima, and K. Takeda. Analysis of Drivers'Responses under Hazardous Situations in Vehicle TrafficfA]. IEEE. Intelligent Vehicles Symposium.2007:1144-1149
[12]Malta, L., C. Miyajima, and K. Takeda, A Study of Driver Behavior Under Potential Threats in Vehicle Traffic[J]. Ieee Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.2009,10(2):201-210
[13]Ben-Akiva, M., Steven, R.L. Discrete Choice Analysis:The Theory and Application to Travel Demand[M]. The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts,1985
[14]McFadden, D. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior[J]. Frontiers in Econometrics. 1974:105-142
[15]Kenneth E.Train. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation[M]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,Massachusetts,2003:101-113
[16]Walker, J. and M. Ben-Akiva. Generalized random utility model[J]. Mathematical Social Sciences.2002,43(3):303-343
[17]Hong K. Lo. Chun-Wing Yip and Quentin K, Wan. Modeling competitive multi-modal transit services: a nested logit approach[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies.2004,12(4):251-272
[18]Bunch, D.S., Estimability in the multinomial probit model[J]. Transportation ResearchB.1991,(5):l-l
[19]Yadin.M. Development of a model for probabilistic discrete decisions:Berkele:Department of Statisics. University of California,1985:40-45
[20]Han,B., S. Algers, and L. Engelson. Accommodating drivers taste variation and repeated choice correlation in route choice modeling by using the mixed logit model[A]. Transportation Research Board 80th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.2001.
[21]Fosgerau, M. and M. Bierlaire. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models[J]. Transportation Research Part B:Methodological.2007,41(7):784-794
[22]McFadden, D and K Train. Mixed mnl models of discrete response[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2000,15:447-470
[23]Revelt D., K.Train. Mixed Logit with repeated choices[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics.1998, 80:647-657
[24]David A. Hensher, William H.Greene. The mixed logit model:The stated of practice [J]. Transportation. 2003,30:133-176
[25]朱华桂.突发事件中个体行为的科学决策.科学对社会的影响[J].2008,4：31-37
[26]郭寒英.突发事件下出行者行为时间特征研究[J].西华大学学报.2010,29(2)：119-121
[27]石小法,王炜等.信息对出行者出行行为的影响研究[J].中国公路学报.2002,15(1)：89-92
[28]周元峰.基于信息的驾驶员路径选择行为及动态诱导模型研究[D].北京交通大学博士学位论文,2007.
[29]唐连生.突发事件下的车辆路径问题研究[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文.2008：
[30]陆化普,殷亚峰.规划理论的非集计分析方法及其应用[J].公路交通科技.1996,13(1)：22-28
[31]金安,毛保华,邹良东.交通方式选择模型与应用研究[J].内蒙古公路与运输.1997,4(1)：33-35
[32]曾松,史春华,杨晓光.基于实验分析的驾驶员路线选择模型研究[J].公路交通科技.2002,19(4)：85-88
[33]干宏程.VMS诱导信息影响下的路径选择行为分析[J].系统工程.2008,26(3)：11-16
[34]周建,王树盛,隋水仙.巢式Logit交通方式划分模型及求解方法研究[J].山东交通学院学报.2005,13(4)：28-31
[35]王树盛,黄卫,陆振波Mixed Logit模型及其在交通方式分担中的应用研究[J].公路交通科技.2006,23(5)：88-91
[36]罗剑,王树盛,李旭宏.基于SB分布的Mixed Logit交通方式分担模型及其验证[J].公路交通科技.2007,24(6)：110-113
[37]张天然,杨东援,赵娅丽,叶亮RP/SP融合数据的Mixed Logit和Nested Logit模型估计对比[J].同济大学学报.2008,36(8)：1073-1078
[38]李华民,黄海军,刘剑锋.混合Logit模型的参数估计与应用研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2010,10(5)：73-78
[39]任福田等译.道路通行能力手册[M].中国建筑工业出版社,1991
[40]姬杨蓓蓓.交通事件持续时间预测方法研究[D].同济大学博士学位论文.2008：12-13
[41]李喜华.城市占道施工对路段交通影响的研究[D].北京交通大学硕士学位论文.2011：6-14
[42]M. Wardman, P.W.B.aJ.D.S. Driver response to variable message signs:a stated Preference investigation[J]. Transportation Research Part.1997,5(6):389-405
[43]王树盛,黄卫,葛华Mixed Logit模型随机参数分布形式选择探讨[J].公路交通科技.2006,23(8)：122-125,146
[44]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[45]Joan walker. The Mixed Logit(or Logit Kernel)Model:Dispelling Misconceptions of Identification[J]. Transportation Research.2002:1-24
[46]David Revelt, Kenneth Train. Mixed logit with Repeated Choices:Households' Choices of Appliance Efficiency Level[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics.1997:1-33
[47]盛鹏,赵树龙,王俊峰,左航.基于元胞自动机模型的道路突发瓶颈现象研究[J].物理学报.2010,59(6)：3831-3839
[48]王培宏.城市交通事件应急管理系统及其理论问题的研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文.2005：2-9
[49]贾伟娜Mixed logit模型及其应用研究[D].宁波大学硕士学位论文.2011：19-52
[50]吴世江,史其信,陆化普.交通出行方式离散选择模型的效用随机项结构研究综述[J].公路工程,2007,32(6)：92-97
[51]高国飞.基于MNL的轨道交通乘客路径选择问题研究[D].北京交通大学硕士学位论文.2009：33-57
[52]焦朋朋,陆化普.基于意向调查数据的非集计模型研究[J].公路交通科技.2005,22(6)：114-116,138
[53]李萍.基于SP问卷调查的VMS诱导效果评价方法研究[D].北京交通大学硕士学位论文.2009：8-20
[54]任远飞.个体日常工作出行行为分析研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文.2009：34-40
[55]唐洁.交通信息对出行者路径选择行为影响研究[D].上海交通大学硕士学位论文.2010：24-62
[2]Do H. Nam, Donanld R. Drew. Analyzing Freeway Traffic Under Congestion:Traffic Dynamics Approach[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering,1998.124(3):208-217
[3]Knoop, V.L., Van Zuylen, H.J. and Hoogendoorn, S.P. Microscopic Traffic Behavior near Accidents[A]. Proceedings of the 18th international symposium of transportation and traffic theory.2009
[4]Koo, R. and Yim, Y. Commuter Response to Traffic Information on an Incident[D]. Technical Report UCB-ITS-PWP-98-26,University of California, Berkely.1998
[5]Jou, R.-C, Lam, S.-H., Liu, Y.-H., and Chen, K.-H. Route switching behavior on freeways with the provision of different types of real-time traffic information[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice.2005,39(5):445-461
[6]Kraan,M..Van der Zijpp,N., Tutert, B., Vonk,T., and Van Megen,D. Evaluating Network wide Effects of Variable Message Signs in the Netherlands[J]. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1999,1689:60-67
[7]Knoop, V.L., Hoogendoorn, S.P. and Van Zuylen, H.J. Route Choice Under Exceptional Traffic Conditions[J]. International Conference on Evacuation Management.2009,23-25
[8]Doohee, N. Incident Induced Congestion:An Exploratory Analysis of Traveler Perceptions and Information Needs[J]. Transportation Research Board.2000
[9]Andre De Palma and Denis Rochat. Understanding individual travel decisions:results from a commuters survey in Geneva [J]. Transportation.1998,26(3):263-281
[10]Chatterjee, K., Hounsell, N.B., Firmin, RE. and Bonsall, P.W. Driver response to variable message Sign information in London[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies.2000.10(2):149-169
[11]Malta, L., C. Miyajima, and K. Takeda. Analysis of Drivers'Responses under Hazardous Situations in Vehicle TrafficfA]. IEEE. Intelligent Vehicles Symposium.2007:1144-1149
[12]Malta, L., C. Miyajima, and K. Takeda, A Study of Driver Behavior Under Potential Threats in Vehicle Traffic[J]. Ieee Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.2009,10(2):201-210
[13]Ben-Akiva, M., Steven, R.L. Discrete Choice Analysis:The Theory and Application to Travel Demand[M]. The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts,1985
[14]McFadden, D. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior[J]. Frontiers in Econometrics. 1974:105-142
[15]Kenneth E.Train. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation[M]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,Massachusetts,2003:101-113
[16]Walker, J. and M. Ben-Akiva. Generalized random utility model[J]. Mathematical Social Sciences.2002,43(3):303-343
[17]Hong K. Lo. Chun-Wing Yip and Quentin K, Wan. Modeling competitive multi-modal transit services: a nested logit approach[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies.2004,12(4):251-272
[18]Bunch, D.S., Estimability in the multinomial probit model[J]. Transportation ResearchB.1991,(5):l-l
[19]Yadin.M. Development of a model for probabilistic discrete decisions:Berkele:Department of Statisics. University of California,1985:40-45
[20]Han,B., S. Algers, and L. Engelson. Accommodating drivers taste variation and repeated choice correlation in route choice modeling by using the mixed logit model[A]. Transportation Research Board 80th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.2001.
[21]Fosgerau, M. and M. Bierlaire. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models[J]. Transportation Research Part B:Methodological.2007,41(7):784-794
[22]McFadden, D and K Train. Mixed mnl models of discrete response[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2000,15:447-470
[23]Revelt D., K.Train. Mixed Logit with repeated choices[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics.1998, 80:647-657
[24]David A. Hensher, William H.Greene. The mixed logit model:The stated of practice [J]. Transportation. 2003,30:133-176
[25]朱华桂.突发事件中个体行为的科学决策.科学对社会的影响[J].2008,4：31-37
[26]郭寒英.突发事件下出行者行为时间特征研究[J].西华大学学报.2010,29(2)：119-121
[27]石小法,王炜等.信息对出行者出行行为的影响研究[J].中国公路学报.2002,15(1)：89-92
[28]周元峰.基于信息的驾驶员路径选择行为及动态诱导模型研究[D].北京交通大学博士学位论文,2007.
[29]唐连生.突发事件下的车辆路径问题研究[D].西南交通大学硕士学位论文.2008：
[30]陆化普,殷亚峰.规划理论的非集计分析方法及其应用[J].公路交通科技.1996,13(1)：22-28
[31]金安,毛保华,邹良东.交通方式选择模型与应用研究[J].内蒙古公路与运输.1997,4(1)：33-35
[32]曾松,史春华,杨晓光.基于实验分析的驾驶员路线选择模型研究[J].公路交通科技.2002,19(4)：85-88
[33]干宏程.VMS诱导信息影响下的路径选择行为分析[J].系统工程.2008,26(3)：11-16
[34]周建,王树盛,隋水仙.巢式Logit交通方式划分模型及求解方法研究[J].山东交通学院学报.2005,13(4)：28-31
[35]王树盛,黄卫,陆振波Mixed Logit模型及其在交通方式分担中的应用研究[J].公路交通科技.2006,23(5)：88-91
[36]罗剑,王树盛,李旭宏.基于SB分布的Mixed Logit交通方式分担模型及其验证[J].公路交通科技.2007,24(6)：110-113
[37]张天然,杨东援,赵娅丽,叶亮RP/SP融合数据的Mixed Logit和Nested Logit模型估计对比[J].同济大学学报.2008,36(8)：1073-1078
[38]李华民,黄海军,刘剑锋.混合Logit模型的参数估计与应用研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2010,10(5)：73-78
[39]任福田等译.道路通行能力手册[M].中国建筑工业出版社,1991
[40]姬杨蓓蓓.交通事件持续时间预测方法研究[D].同济大学博士学位论文.2008：12-13
[41]李喜华.城市占道施工对路段交通影响的研究[D].北京交通大学硕士学位论文.2011：6-14
[42]M. Wardman, P.W.B.aJ.D.S. Driver response to variable message signs:a stated Preference investigation[J]. Transportation Research Part.1997,5(6):389-405
[43]王树盛,黄卫,葛华Mixed Logit模型随机参数分布形式选择探讨[J].公路交通科技.2006,23(8)：122-125,146
[44]关宏志.非集计模型——交通行为分析的工具[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[45]Joan walker. The Mixed Logit(or Logit Kernel)Model:Dispelling Misconceptions of Identification[J]. Transportation Research.2002:1-24
[46]David Revelt, Kenneth Train. Mixed logit with Repeated Choices:Households' Choices of Appliance Efficiency Level[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics.1997:1-33
[47]盛鹏,赵树龙,王俊峰,左航.基于元胞自动机模型的道路突发瓶颈现象研究[J].物理学报.2010,59(6)：3831-3839
[48]王培宏.城市交通事件应急管理系统及其理论问题的研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文.2005：2-9
[49]贾伟娜Mixed logit模型及其应用研究[D].宁波大学硕士学位论文.2011：19-52
[50]吴世江,史其信,陆化普.交通出行方式离散选择模型的效用随机项结构研究综述[J].公路工程,2007,32(6)：92-97
[51]高国飞.基于MNL的轨道交通乘客路径选择问题研究[D].北京交通大学硕士学位论文.2009：33-57
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