碳关税对江苏省工业品出口的影响
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摘要
联合国哥本哈根气候大会结束后,全球进入低碳经济发展时期已不可逆转,碳税引入国际贸易也只是时间的问题。随着中国改革开放的推进,江苏省对外贸易迅速发展,贸易额在全国处于领先地位,这为江苏省带来了可观的贸易顺差,但是通过国际贸易,江苏省为其他国家/地区转移的CO2排放量也不容小觑。本文首先使用参考方法对1995～2009年江苏省工业CO2排放量进行了估算,结果表明,2003年以前,江苏省CO2排放量增长非常缓慢,2003年以后CO2排放量增速迅猛,与全国发展趋势基本一致。接着,采用投入产出法进一步分析江苏省16个主要工业出口部门的碳排放情况,分析结果表明江苏省高出口高排放及低出口高排放部门在出口贸易中仍然占有很大比重,并占据了大部分的CO2排放份额。碳关税对工业部门的影响可能甚至会超过反倾销、特保等。由于是发达国家/地区欲征收碳关税,本文最后通过灰色关联度分析,以考察江苏省CO2排放量与其十大出口对象国/地区之间的关系。碳关税无疑对江苏省工业将产生较为恶劣的影响,不仅影响外贸的可持续发展,还会影响国内贸易的正常秩序。最后,本文从经济建设、社会建设、政治建设及文化建设四个方面出发,对政府、社会民间组织、企业等碳关税参与者提出了相应的政策建议,以应对碳关税的冲击,实现对外贸易的可持续发展。
After United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen, it is irreversible for the world to enter into a period of low carbon economic development. Carbon tax is going to be used in international trade sooner or later. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, the foreign trade of Jiangsu Province has got rapid development and the volume has been in the leading position in China, which brings great trade surplus to Jiangsu Province. However, through the international trade the transfer of CO2 emission from other countries/regions to Jiangsu Province should not be underestimated.Firstly, reference manual is used to estimate the industrial CO2 emission of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2009, and the result consistent with the national trends shows that prior to 2003 CO2 emission grew slowly while after 2003 sharply. Then we adopt the input-output theory to study the CO2 emission of 16 main export departments. The analysis result indicates that the high export-high emission departments and the low export-high emission departments still occupy a large proportion of the export volume and also the most share of CO2 emission. The impact of carbon tariff may be worse than the impacts of anti-dumping,special protection and so on. It is the developed countries/regions that would like to impose carbon tariff. So, the thesis studies the relation between the CO2 emission and the export volumes to the ten largest trade counties/regions in the grey correlation analysis.Carbon tariff will no doubt bring adverse impact to the Jiangsu's industrial development, which will not only affect the sustainable development of the foreign trade,but also disturb the normal order of domestic trade. Finally, considering the construction of economic,social,political and culture, this thesis proposes some strategies for the carbon tariff participants containing the Government, non official organizations and enterprises, in order to cope with carbon tariff and realize the sustainable development of foreign trade.
After United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen, it is irreversible for the world to enter into a period of low carbon economic development. Carbon tax is going to be used in international trade sooner or later. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, the foreign trade of Jiangsu Province has got rapid development and the volume has been in the leading position in China, which brings great trade surplus to Jiangsu Province. However, through the international trade the transfer of CO2 emission from other countries/regions to Jiangsu Province should not be underestimated.Firstly, reference manual is used to estimate the industrial CO2 emission of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2009, and the result consistent with the national trends shows that prior to 2003 CO2 emission grew slowly while after 2003 sharply. Then we adopt the input-output theory to study the CO2 emission of 16 main export departments. The analysis result indicates that the high export-high emission departments and the low export-high emission departments still occupy a large proportion of the export volume and also the most share of CO2 emission. The impact of carbon tariff may be worse than the impacts of anti-dumping,special protection and so on. It is the developed countries/regions that would like to impose carbon tariff. So, the thesis studies the relation between the CO2 emission and the export volumes to the ten largest trade counties/regions in the grey correlation analysis.Carbon tariff will no doubt bring adverse impact to the Jiangsu's industrial development, which will not only affect the sustainable development of the foreign trade,but also disturb the normal order of domestic trade. Finally, considering the construction of economic,social,political and culture, this thesis proposes some strategies for the carbon tariff participants containing the Government, non official organizations and enterprises, in order to cope with carbon tariff and realize the sustainable development of foreign trade.
引文
①引用自“全国科学技术名词审定委员会”。
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② Walley J. and Lockwood B. Carbon Motivated Border Tax Adjustment:Old Wine in Green Bottles?[J]. NBER. Working Paper, May,2008, No.14025.
③ Chistopher L.Weber. Embodied environmental emission in U.S. International trade 1997-2004[J]. Environmental Science & Technology,2007:4875-4881.
① Hae-Chun Rhee, Hyun-Sik Chung. Change in CO2 emission and its transmissions between Korea and Japan using international input-output analysis[J]. Ecological Economics 58(4),2006:788-800.
② Bin Shui, Robert C Harriss. The role of CO2 Embodiment in US-China trade[J]. Energy Policy,2006:4036-4068.
③ Mander T, Veenendaal P. Border Tax Adjustments and the EU-ETS-A Quantitative Assessment [R].CPB Document, 2009,(171):36.
④ Biermann, Brohm R. Implement the Kyoto Protocol without the USA:the Strategic Role of Energy Tax Adjustments at the border [J]. Climate Policy,2005,4(3),289-302.
⑤ Ismer R, Neuhoff K. Border Tax Adjustment:A Feasible Way to Support Stringer Emission Trading [R]. CMI Working Paper,2007, NO.36.
⑥黄志雄.国际贸易新课题：边境碳调节措施与中国的对策[J].中国软科学,2010(1)：1-9.
①沈可挺.碳关税争端及其对中国制造业的影响[J].中国工业经济,2010(1)：65-74.
②夏先良.碳关税、低碳经济和中美贸易再平衡[J].国际贸易,2009(11)：37-45.
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④ Mckibbin W. J. and Wilcoxen P.J., The Economic and Environment Effects of Border Tax Adjustment for Climate Change [J]. Unpublished Paper, The Bookings Institution,2008.
⑤ Yan Dong, John Whalley. How large are the impacts of carbon motivated border tax adjustments [J].Economic Policy Research Institute EPRI Working Paper Series,2009(3):1-37.
③沈可挺,李钢.碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响[J].财贸经济,2010(1)：75-82.
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②孙菲菲.《湖北省出口贸易对碳排放的影响研究》.中国商界,2010(10)：203.
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