有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,尤其自二十世纪九十年代以来明显进入先期工业化国家曾经经历过的工业化经济高速增长阶段,工业化的进程加速了有色金属矿产资源的消耗。集中体现在铜、铝、镍等有色急缺矿产资源的消费量基数不断增大,储量增长赶不上产量增长,产量增长赶不上消费增长,供应缺口日益增大,保障程度和供需形势日趋严峻。国外经验表明,保障急缺矿产资源供应安全的一个重要途径就是建立矿产资源战略储备制度,并对其释放进行有效控制。论文在湖南省软科学课题“有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放研究”及云南铜业集团公司相关项目的支持下,就有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放问题进行了以下几个方面的研究：
(1)在界定有色急缺矿产资源概念的基础上,设计了我国有色金属矿产资源急缺性评价指标体系,运用层次分析法对铜、铝、铅、锌、镍、锡、锑等有色金属矿产的急缺性进行了评价,结合黄金分割优选法确定铜、铝、钴、锌、镍属于有色急缺矿产；并从定性和定量角度给出了有色急缺矿产供应中断的判断标准；分析了有色急缺矿产战略储备的内在机理和基本原则及不同矿种的战略储备方式；总结了有色急缺矿产战略储备的重要作用。
(2)有色急缺矿产战略储备的目标是保证有色急缺矿产供应安全,其储备规模不仅要考虑国家政治、经济和军事形势等需求方面的因素,而且也要考虑资源的供应状况、国家财力状况、国家相关政策、进口依存度、进口来源特征、储备成本、生产的机会成本等供应方面的因素,还应该考虑供给中断时产生的各种成本。由于我国有色金属统计资料有限,本研究依据有色急缺矿产战略储备所要达到的供给保障程度及成本控制两方面的因素,构建了有色急缺矿产战略储备规模模型。并在分析发达国家急缺矿产战略储备建立过程的基础上,制定了我国有色急缺矿产战略储备时机选择应遵循的相对准则,进而运用动态规划理论构建了存在两种供给状态前提下的有色急缺矿产战略储备时机选择模型。
(3)有色急缺矿产战略储备释放是有色急缺矿产战略储备发挥作用的必然步骤,在总结国外储备释放成功经验的基础上,制定有色急缺矿产战略储备释放的决策程序；运用实物期权的看涨期权思想科学合理地评价有色急缺矿产战略储备的价值,并给出其一般解；在此基础上,构建有色急缺矿产战略储备的“释放—封存”转换模型,确定有色急缺矿产战略储备释放与封存转换的边界条件。
(4)运行管理是有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系高效运转的重要保障,论文运用应急管理思想设计我国有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系的应急组织框架,即政府统一领导下的、有色金属工业部门为主、各相关部门参与的有色急缺矿产战略储备应急管理体系；在选择利益相关者共同治理模式的基础上,设计了有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系利益相关者共同治理机制,构建了基于合作博弈的有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系的利益分享机制。
(5)以铜资源为例,利用已建立的定量模型,结合1995至2008年国际国内铜资源供求形势,进行了精炼铜战略储备与释放相关指标的测算,结果表明为保证我国铜资源供应安全,当前我国应该储备精炼铜46.11万吨,2002年曾经是我国储备铜资源的理想时机。在无风险利率r没有变化,不考虑储备单位经营成本(释放成本)C和单位封存成本E等的前提下,当精炼铜价格高于8854千美元／吨时,应释放精炼铜战略储备。
Since the reform and opening, our economy has been developing rapidly. Especially since1990s, our economy has obviously entered the rapid growth phase of industrial economy which early industrialized countries had experienced. The process of industrialization has accelerated the consumption of non-ferrous metal mineral resources. The consumption of copper, aluminum, nickel and other non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources increases desperately, the growth of their reserves can't keep up with the growth of their output, and the growth of their output can't keep up with the growth of their demand, so the supply shortfall has been increasing all the while, their security and supply-demand situation have been getting worse. Overseas experiences show that there is an important way to ensure the security of the Much-lacking mineral resources which is to build a strategic reserve system for mineral resources and to control its release effectively. With the support of some subjects, the paper states the following aspects about non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources.
(1)On the base of defining the concept of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources, the writer has designed the evaluating indicator system about the Much-lacking extent of non-ferrous metal mineral resources, used the analytical hierarchy process to evaluate the Much-lacking extent of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, antimony and other non-ferrous metal minerals, put forward that copper, aluminum, cobalt, zinc and nickel belong to non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources by the golden section law, given the judgment standard of supply interruption from the qualitative and quantitative point of view, and analyzed the inner mechanism, basic principle, reserve mode and its important role of the strategic reserves of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking minerals.
(2)The aim to reserve strategically non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is to guarantee their supply security. For estimating their reasonable reserve deal, we take not only demand factors such as national political, economic and military situation, but also the supply factors such as the country's financial condition, national policies, the import dependence, import source characteristics, the reserves cost, the opportunity cost of production, and the various cost of supply disruption into consideration. Because the statistics about non-ferrous metals is limited in our country, this paper, based on the supply security of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources and cost control, establishes their strategic reserve scale model. On the basis of analyzing the establishment process of the developed country's mineral strategic reserves, we constitute the principles when our country reverses non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources. We apply the dynamic planning theory to establish the model about when our country should reverse the non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources with the premise of two kinds of supply state.
(3)Releasing the strategic reserve of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is the inevitable step to exert their function. Draw lessons from the developed countries, the scientific decision-making procedure about releasing the strategic reserve is constituted in the paper. Applying the real options theory, we establish the value model to estimate the strategic reserve's value and the conversion model about when our country should release the strategic reserves and not, and achieve their general solution.
(4)The management is the important measure to make the strategic reserve and release system of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources effective. An emergency organization system is designed by using emergency management ideas, which is leaded by the government, non-ferrous metal industry departments is its major and other related departments support. On the basis of choosing stakeholder governance model, the stakeholder co-governance mechanism and the interest share mechanism for the strategic reserves organization of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is designed.
(5)Taking copper resources for an example, utilizing the quantitative model established above, combining the domestic demand and supply situation from1995-2008, we estimated the strategic reserves scale of the refined copper, the outcome shows that our country should reserve461.1thousand tons in2002to ensure the supply security of copper resources. On the assumption that the risk-free interest rate r, the reserve units operating costs(release costs) C and the unit storage cost E all are no change, when the price of refined copper is above$8,854per ton, we should release the reserves.
(1)在界定有色急缺矿产资源概念的基础上,设计了我国有色金属矿产资源急缺性评价指标体系,运用层次分析法对铜、铝、铅、锌、镍、锡、锑等有色金属矿产的急缺性进行了评价,结合黄金分割优选法确定铜、铝、钴、锌、镍属于有色急缺矿产；并从定性和定量角度给出了有色急缺矿产供应中断的判断标准；分析了有色急缺矿产战略储备的内在机理和基本原则及不同矿种的战略储备方式；总结了有色急缺矿产战略储备的重要作用。
(2)有色急缺矿产战略储备的目标是保证有色急缺矿产供应安全,其储备规模不仅要考虑国家政治、经济和军事形势等需求方面的因素,而且也要考虑资源的供应状况、国家财力状况、国家相关政策、进口依存度、进口来源特征、储备成本、生产的机会成本等供应方面的因素,还应该考虑供给中断时产生的各种成本。由于我国有色金属统计资料有限,本研究依据有色急缺矿产战略储备所要达到的供给保障程度及成本控制两方面的因素,构建了有色急缺矿产战略储备规模模型。并在分析发达国家急缺矿产战略储备建立过程的基础上,制定了我国有色急缺矿产战略储备时机选择应遵循的相对准则,进而运用动态规划理论构建了存在两种供给状态前提下的有色急缺矿产战略储备时机选择模型。
(3)有色急缺矿产战略储备释放是有色急缺矿产战略储备发挥作用的必然步骤,在总结国外储备释放成功经验的基础上,制定有色急缺矿产战略储备释放的决策程序；运用实物期权的看涨期权思想科学合理地评价有色急缺矿产战略储备的价值,并给出其一般解；在此基础上,构建有色急缺矿产战略储备的“释放—封存”转换模型,确定有色急缺矿产战略储备释放与封存转换的边界条件。
(4)运行管理是有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系高效运转的重要保障,论文运用应急管理思想设计我国有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系的应急组织框架,即政府统一领导下的、有色金属工业部门为主、各相关部门参与的有色急缺矿产战略储备应急管理体系；在选择利益相关者共同治理模式的基础上,设计了有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系利益相关者共同治理机制,构建了基于合作博弈的有色急缺矿产战略储备与释放体系的利益分享机制。
(5)以铜资源为例,利用已建立的定量模型,结合1995至2008年国际国内铜资源供求形势,进行了精炼铜战略储备与释放相关指标的测算,结果表明为保证我国铜资源供应安全,当前我国应该储备精炼铜46.11万吨,2002年曾经是我国储备铜资源的理想时机。在无风险利率r没有变化,不考虑储备单位经营成本(释放成本)C和单位封存成本E等的前提下,当精炼铜价格高于8854千美元／吨时,应释放精炼铜战略储备。
Since the reform and opening, our economy has been developing rapidly. Especially since1990s, our economy has obviously entered the rapid growth phase of industrial economy which early industrialized countries had experienced. The process of industrialization has accelerated the consumption of non-ferrous metal mineral resources. The consumption of copper, aluminum, nickel and other non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources increases desperately, the growth of their reserves can't keep up with the growth of their output, and the growth of their output can't keep up with the growth of their demand, so the supply shortfall has been increasing all the while, their security and supply-demand situation have been getting worse. Overseas experiences show that there is an important way to ensure the security of the Much-lacking mineral resources which is to build a strategic reserve system for mineral resources and to control its release effectively. With the support of some subjects, the paper states the following aspects about non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources.
(1)On the base of defining the concept of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources, the writer has designed the evaluating indicator system about the Much-lacking extent of non-ferrous metal mineral resources, used the analytical hierarchy process to evaluate the Much-lacking extent of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, antimony and other non-ferrous metal minerals, put forward that copper, aluminum, cobalt, zinc and nickel belong to non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources by the golden section law, given the judgment standard of supply interruption from the qualitative and quantitative point of view, and analyzed the inner mechanism, basic principle, reserve mode and its important role of the strategic reserves of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking minerals.
(2)The aim to reserve strategically non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is to guarantee their supply security. For estimating their reasonable reserve deal, we take not only demand factors such as national political, economic and military situation, but also the supply factors such as the country's financial condition, national policies, the import dependence, import source characteristics, the reserves cost, the opportunity cost of production, and the various cost of supply disruption into consideration. Because the statistics about non-ferrous metals is limited in our country, this paper, based on the supply security of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources and cost control, establishes their strategic reserve scale model. On the basis of analyzing the establishment process of the developed country's mineral strategic reserves, we constitute the principles when our country reverses non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources. We apply the dynamic planning theory to establish the model about when our country should reverse the non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources with the premise of two kinds of supply state.
(3)Releasing the strategic reserve of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is the inevitable step to exert their function. Draw lessons from the developed countries, the scientific decision-making procedure about releasing the strategic reserve is constituted in the paper. Applying the real options theory, we establish the value model to estimate the strategic reserve's value and the conversion model about when our country should release the strategic reserves and not, and achieve their general solution.
(4)The management is the important measure to make the strategic reserve and release system of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources effective. An emergency organization system is designed by using emergency management ideas, which is leaded by the government, non-ferrous metal industry departments is its major and other related departments support. On the basis of choosing stakeholder governance model, the stakeholder co-governance mechanism and the interest share mechanism for the strategic reserves organization of non-ferrous metal Much-lacking mineral resources is designed.
(5)Taking copper resources for an example, utilizing the quantitative model established above, combining the domestic demand and supply situation from1995-2008, we estimated the strategic reserves scale of the refined copper, the outcome shows that our country should reserve461.1thousand tons in2002to ensure the supply security of copper resources. On the assumption that the risk-free interest rate r, the reserve units operating costs(release costs) C and the unit storage cost E all are no change, when the price of refined copper is above$8,854per ton, we should release the reserves.
引文
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