中国花生主产区比较优势研究
摘要
随着经济发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国城乡居民对食用植物油的消费量显著增加,然而国内油料供给始终无法跟上国内消费的增长速度,供需缺口日益扩大的同时,我国对国际油料市场的依赖性日益增强。随着人民生活水平和城市化率的不断提高,油料作物的消费需求必然会进一步释放,所以扶持我国具有优势的油料作物的发展,提高食用油自给率就显得尤为重要。纵观中国传统的油料作物,花生是最主要的出口创汇品种,和其他传统的油料作物相比,具有国际竞争力强、增产潜力大、出油率高、经济效益好、营养价值高和种植适应性强等方面的优势。因此,大力发展花生生产对于稳定中国油料产业具有重要的战略意义。
根据比较优势原理,各国在生产和贸易中都应在全面衡量各国国内资源禀赋的基础上,在各自的生产和贸易领域内充分遵循比较优势原则进行合理安排,这样才能在提高资源配置效率的同时改善总体福利。在国内生产安排上,各国也应当根据各地区生产的比较优势格局实现生产的区域分工以及生产结构的调整。因此,本文以比较优势原理为主要依据,从我国花生生产发展的宏观构架上,本文研究主要回答以下两个问题：第一,测算我国花生主产区花生生产层面的潜在比较优势,通过考察各主产区花生生产的相对比较优势格局,为花生主产区生产结构调整提供科学依据；第二,基于要素投入角度,对影响花生生产比较优势变动的两个重要因素——新品种和机械化收获技术,重点探讨适应市场需求的花生新品种和适应花生收获的机械化技术的推广问题,也即如何充分发挥花生主产区花生生产的潜在比较优势。通过以上内容的分析,以期为花生主产区生产发展的政策选择提供实证依据。全文主要研究内容和相关结论陈述如下：
研究内容一：中国花生生产的比较优势及其变动的影响因素
运用国内资源成本法测算了我国花生生产层面的潜在比较优势水平,分析表明2001-2011年我国花生生产整体而言具有显著的比较优势水平,这一比较优势格局完全符合我国劳动力资源相对丰富的特点,且随着近几年国际花生价格的上涨,其比较优势水平有进一步增强的趋势。针对我国花生比较优势变动影响因素的分析表明：国际市场价格、单产水平、单位面积劳动力成本是主要影响因素。
研究内容二：花生新品种推广的制约性因素分析
从市场消费需求和食品加工业的发展来看,未来花生生产的目标不再仅限于追求高产,花生的质量和品质还需要适应于不同的加工用途和需求特点。而当前我国花生主产区花生品种老化、退化、杂化现象突出,生产的标准化程度较低,严重影响花生单产水平的提高、良种配套技术的推广和品种自身优势的发挥。当前花生品种育、繁、推脱节,农户规模小、组织化程度较低的生产经营模式,以及加工企业产业带动能力的不足也是制约花生新品种推广的重要因素。进一步运用Logit模型对花生种植户花生新品种采用决策行为的影响因素分析表明：花生种植规模、商品率、示范户、花生良种补贴、品种信息主要来自农技部门或种子公司等变量对农户花生新品种的选择具有正向效应；而非农收入占比越高的农户对新品种的选择具有负向效应。
研究内容三：花生机械化收获技术推广的制约性因素分析
在当前城镇化、工业化发展趋势下,农业劳动力大规模转移导致农村劳动力表现出老龄化、兼业化程度加深的局面,农业劳动投入的时间和精力受到限制,而当前花生主产区机械化收获水平偏低的现状显然不利于花生生产的发展。而地形地貌、土壤质地等自然地理条件的复杂多样,农机和农艺不配套,农户规模小、分散的经营模式,农机社会化服务的不健全,以及政策扶持的相对不足等因素是制约花生机械化收获发展的重要原因。进一步运用Logit模型对花生种植户机械化收获技术采纳的影响因素分析表明：年龄、劳均花生种植面积、示范户、补贴因素、花生用地属于平原地形等因素对农户农机化收获技术的采纳具有正向效应；而家庭主要农业决策者为女性、当地机械服务收费标准越高等因素对农户花生机械化收获技术的采纳具有负向影响。
研究内容四：中国花生主产区花生生产结构调整
在测定我国花生主产区花生与其主要竞争作物相对比较优势格局的基础上,探讨花生生产结构调整的可行性和调整方向。分析表明我国花生主产区比较优势未得到充分发挥,尚存在进一步结构调整的空间。通过构建RDRCC分析框架,对当前花生主产区生产结构调整的建议为：辽宁和河南花生生产的相对比较优势最为显著,可以考虑进一步扩大花生生产；山东和河北的花生生产具有一定的相对比较优势,可以考虑适当扩大其花生生产；而安徽、四川、广东和广西花生生产与其主要竞争作物相比不具备相对比较优势,应以稳定发展为主。
根据以上研究内容,本文提出相应的政策建议如下：推进花生主产区生产结构调整,制订有利于主产区比较优势发挥的相关配套政策措施；加快优质专用型品种的培育和推广,推进主产区花生的标准化生产和区域化布局；因地制宜制定主产区花生收获机械化技术发展模式。
With the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of domestic urban and rural residents' edible vegetable oil has increased significantly. However, domestic oil supply could not meet the demands of increasing domestic oil consumption. The gap between oil supply and demand is enlarging. At the same time, domestic oil supply relies more on international oil market. With people's living standards and urbanization rate continuously rising, the consumer demand for oil crops will inevitably be further released. As a result, it is especially important to support the development of domestic superior oil crops and enhance edible oil self-sufficiency rate. Peanut is the main export product among all Chinese traditional oil products. Compared with other traditional oil crops, peanut has advantages such as strong international competitiveness, high yield-increasing potential, high oil yield, good economic returns, high nutritional value and strong planting adaptability etc. Therefore, it has an important strategic significance for Chinese edible oil industry to develop peanut production.
According to the comparative advantage principle, all countries should fully assess their domestic resource endowments both in production and trade. On this basis, all countries should reasonably arrange production and trade in full compliance with the comparative advantage principle. Only in this way can they enhance resource allocation efficiency as well as improve overall welfare. For domestic production arrangements, each country should perform production regional division and production structure adjustment according to each region's comparative advantage pattern. As a result, based on the comparative advantage principle, the paper mainly answers two questions on the macro framework of domestic peanut production:Firstly, the paper estimates the potential comparative advantage of peanut production in main domestic peanut producing areas. After that, the paper investigates the relative comparative advantage of peanut production in these areas. And then it provides scientific basis for production structural adjustment of main peanut producing areas. Secondly, based on factor input perspective, the paper explores two important factors influencing peanut production comparative advantage changes:new peanut varieties and mechanized harvest technology. The paper mainly discusses the new peanut varieties meeting the market demands and the promotion of peanut harvest mechanization technologies. In this way, we can give full play to potential comparative advantage of peanut production in main peanut producing areas. By analyzing the contents above, the paper tries to provide an empirical basis for policy choices in main peanut producing areas' production development. The paper's main researches and related conclusions are as follows:
1:Domestic peanut production comparative advantage and the influencing factors of its changes.
The paper uses domestic resource cost method to estimate domestic peanut production's potential comparative advantage. The analysis shows that domestic peanut production between2001and2011has significant comparative advantages. The comparative advantage pattern is in full compliance with the relatively rich domestic labor resources features. In addition, with international peanut price increasing in recent years, the comparative advantage has a further increasing trend. The analysis aims at the influencing factors of domestic peanut comparative advantage changes. It shows that international market prices, yield per unit area and labor costs per unit area are the main influencing factors.
2:Constraint factors analysis on new peanut varieties promotion
In the aspects of consumer demand and food processing industry development, the future peanut production targets will not be limited to pursuing high yield. Peanut's quality and property are required to meet different processing purposes and demand characteristics. However, the peanut varieties aging, degradation and hybridization phenomenon in current main domestic peanut producing areas is significant. The production standardization degree is very low. The problems above seriously affect the peanut yield improvement, fine breeds supporting technology promotion and breeds advantages performance. For current peanut varieties, their breeding, propagation and promotion are disjointed. The farmer household's production scale is small. The production operation model has relatively low organization degree. The processing enterprises lack industrial promoting forces. All problems above are important factors restricting new peanuts varieties promotion. Analysis on the influencing factors of peanut farmers'adopting new peanut varieties shows that:The variables such as peanut planting scale, commodity rate, demonstration households, subsidies for peanut fine seeds and breeds information mainly coming from agriculture technology department or Seeds Company have positive effect on peanut farmers'new peanut varieties choices. However, the peanut farmers with a high non-agricultural income will have negative effect on new peanut varieties choices.
3:Constraint factors analysis on peanut mechanized harvest technology promotion
With the current urbanization and industrialization development trend, massive transfer appears in the agricultural labor force. Such transfer deepens the aging and non-professional levels of rural labor force. The time and energy inputted in agricultural labor are restrained. The current main peanut producing areas have low mechanized harvest levels. It is not conducive to the peanut production development. The natural geographical conditions such as topography, landforms and soil texture are complex and variable. Agricultural machinery does not match agricultural technology. Farmer household scale is small. Operation model is decentralized. Agricultural machinery socialization service needs improving. Policy support is relatively insufficient. All factors above are the important reasons restraining peanut mechanized harvest development. Analysis on the influencing factors of peanut farmers'adopting mechanized harvest technology shows that:The following factors have positive effect on peanut farmers'adopting mechanized harvest technology:age, peanut acreage per agriculture labor, demonstration households, subsidies factors, plains planting terrain etc. However the following factors have negative effect on peanut farmers'adopting mechanized harvest technology:female agricultural producers, high local mechanical service fees etc.
4:Peanut production structural adjustment in domestic main peanut producing areas
The paper estimates the comparative advantage patterns between peanut and its major competing crops in domestic main peanut producing areas. On this basis, the paper probes into the feasibility and adjustment direction of peanut production structural adjustment. The analysis shows that the comparative advantages in domestic main peanut producing areas have not been fully played. There is space for further structural adjustment. After building the RDRCC analytical framework, the suggestions for current production structural adjustment in main peanut producing areas are as follows:Liaoning and Henan peanut production have the most significant comparative advantages, they should consider to further expand peanut production; Shandong and Hebei peanut production have certain comparative advantages, they should consider to appropriately expand peanut production; however, for Anhui, Sichuan, Guangdong and Guangxi, their peanut productions have no comparative advantages compared with main competing crops. As a result, they should mainly try to achieve steady development.
According to the researches above, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions as follows:accelerate the cultivation and promotion of high-quality special peanut varieties, comprehensively improve peanut production standardization levels, form regional distribution; establish peanut harvest mechanization technology model according to local conditions.
根据比较优势原理,各国在生产和贸易中都应在全面衡量各国国内资源禀赋的基础上,在各自的生产和贸易领域内充分遵循比较优势原则进行合理安排,这样才能在提高资源配置效率的同时改善总体福利。在国内生产安排上,各国也应当根据各地区生产的比较优势格局实现生产的区域分工以及生产结构的调整。因此,本文以比较优势原理为主要依据,从我国花生生产发展的宏观构架上,本文研究主要回答以下两个问题：第一,测算我国花生主产区花生生产层面的潜在比较优势,通过考察各主产区花生生产的相对比较优势格局,为花生主产区生产结构调整提供科学依据；第二,基于要素投入角度,对影响花生生产比较优势变动的两个重要因素——新品种和机械化收获技术,重点探讨适应市场需求的花生新品种和适应花生收获的机械化技术的推广问题,也即如何充分发挥花生主产区花生生产的潜在比较优势。通过以上内容的分析,以期为花生主产区生产发展的政策选择提供实证依据。全文主要研究内容和相关结论陈述如下：
研究内容一：中国花生生产的比较优势及其变动的影响因素
运用国内资源成本法测算了我国花生生产层面的潜在比较优势水平,分析表明2001-2011年我国花生生产整体而言具有显著的比较优势水平,这一比较优势格局完全符合我国劳动力资源相对丰富的特点,且随着近几年国际花生价格的上涨,其比较优势水平有进一步增强的趋势。针对我国花生比较优势变动影响因素的分析表明：国际市场价格、单产水平、单位面积劳动力成本是主要影响因素。
研究内容二：花生新品种推广的制约性因素分析
从市场消费需求和食品加工业的发展来看,未来花生生产的目标不再仅限于追求高产,花生的质量和品质还需要适应于不同的加工用途和需求特点。而当前我国花生主产区花生品种老化、退化、杂化现象突出,生产的标准化程度较低,严重影响花生单产水平的提高、良种配套技术的推广和品种自身优势的发挥。当前花生品种育、繁、推脱节,农户规模小、组织化程度较低的生产经营模式,以及加工企业产业带动能力的不足也是制约花生新品种推广的重要因素。进一步运用Logit模型对花生种植户花生新品种采用决策行为的影响因素分析表明：花生种植规模、商品率、示范户、花生良种补贴、品种信息主要来自农技部门或种子公司等变量对农户花生新品种的选择具有正向效应；而非农收入占比越高的农户对新品种的选择具有负向效应。
研究内容三：花生机械化收获技术推广的制约性因素分析
在当前城镇化、工业化发展趋势下,农业劳动力大规模转移导致农村劳动力表现出老龄化、兼业化程度加深的局面,农业劳动投入的时间和精力受到限制,而当前花生主产区机械化收获水平偏低的现状显然不利于花生生产的发展。而地形地貌、土壤质地等自然地理条件的复杂多样,农机和农艺不配套,农户规模小、分散的经营模式,农机社会化服务的不健全,以及政策扶持的相对不足等因素是制约花生机械化收获发展的重要原因。进一步运用Logit模型对花生种植户机械化收获技术采纳的影响因素分析表明：年龄、劳均花生种植面积、示范户、补贴因素、花生用地属于平原地形等因素对农户农机化收获技术的采纳具有正向效应；而家庭主要农业决策者为女性、当地机械服务收费标准越高等因素对农户花生机械化收获技术的采纳具有负向影响。
研究内容四：中国花生主产区花生生产结构调整
在测定我国花生主产区花生与其主要竞争作物相对比较优势格局的基础上,探讨花生生产结构调整的可行性和调整方向。分析表明我国花生主产区比较优势未得到充分发挥,尚存在进一步结构调整的空间。通过构建RDRCC分析框架,对当前花生主产区生产结构调整的建议为：辽宁和河南花生生产的相对比较优势最为显著,可以考虑进一步扩大花生生产；山东和河北的花生生产具有一定的相对比较优势,可以考虑适当扩大其花生生产；而安徽、四川、广东和广西花生生产与其主要竞争作物相比不具备相对比较优势,应以稳定发展为主。
根据以上研究内容,本文提出相应的政策建议如下：推进花生主产区生产结构调整,制订有利于主产区比较优势发挥的相关配套政策措施；加快优质专用型品种的培育和推广,推进主产区花生的标准化生产和区域化布局；因地制宜制定主产区花生收获机械化技术发展模式。
With the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of domestic urban and rural residents' edible vegetable oil has increased significantly. However, domestic oil supply could not meet the demands of increasing domestic oil consumption. The gap between oil supply and demand is enlarging. At the same time, domestic oil supply relies more on international oil market. With people's living standards and urbanization rate continuously rising, the consumer demand for oil crops will inevitably be further released. As a result, it is especially important to support the development of domestic superior oil crops and enhance edible oil self-sufficiency rate. Peanut is the main export product among all Chinese traditional oil products. Compared with other traditional oil crops, peanut has advantages such as strong international competitiveness, high yield-increasing potential, high oil yield, good economic returns, high nutritional value and strong planting adaptability etc. Therefore, it has an important strategic significance for Chinese edible oil industry to develop peanut production.
According to the comparative advantage principle, all countries should fully assess their domestic resource endowments both in production and trade. On this basis, all countries should reasonably arrange production and trade in full compliance with the comparative advantage principle. Only in this way can they enhance resource allocation efficiency as well as improve overall welfare. For domestic production arrangements, each country should perform production regional division and production structure adjustment according to each region's comparative advantage pattern. As a result, based on the comparative advantage principle, the paper mainly answers two questions on the macro framework of domestic peanut production:Firstly, the paper estimates the potential comparative advantage of peanut production in main domestic peanut producing areas. After that, the paper investigates the relative comparative advantage of peanut production in these areas. And then it provides scientific basis for production structural adjustment of main peanut producing areas. Secondly, based on factor input perspective, the paper explores two important factors influencing peanut production comparative advantage changes:new peanut varieties and mechanized harvest technology. The paper mainly discusses the new peanut varieties meeting the market demands and the promotion of peanut harvest mechanization technologies. In this way, we can give full play to potential comparative advantage of peanut production in main peanut producing areas. By analyzing the contents above, the paper tries to provide an empirical basis for policy choices in main peanut producing areas' production development. The paper's main researches and related conclusions are as follows:
1:Domestic peanut production comparative advantage and the influencing factors of its changes.
The paper uses domestic resource cost method to estimate domestic peanut production's potential comparative advantage. The analysis shows that domestic peanut production between2001and2011has significant comparative advantages. The comparative advantage pattern is in full compliance with the relatively rich domestic labor resources features. In addition, with international peanut price increasing in recent years, the comparative advantage has a further increasing trend. The analysis aims at the influencing factors of domestic peanut comparative advantage changes. It shows that international market prices, yield per unit area and labor costs per unit area are the main influencing factors.
2:Constraint factors analysis on new peanut varieties promotion
In the aspects of consumer demand and food processing industry development, the future peanut production targets will not be limited to pursuing high yield. Peanut's quality and property are required to meet different processing purposes and demand characteristics. However, the peanut varieties aging, degradation and hybridization phenomenon in current main domestic peanut producing areas is significant. The production standardization degree is very low. The problems above seriously affect the peanut yield improvement, fine breeds supporting technology promotion and breeds advantages performance. For current peanut varieties, their breeding, propagation and promotion are disjointed. The farmer household's production scale is small. The production operation model has relatively low organization degree. The processing enterprises lack industrial promoting forces. All problems above are important factors restricting new peanuts varieties promotion. Analysis on the influencing factors of peanut farmers'adopting new peanut varieties shows that:The variables such as peanut planting scale, commodity rate, demonstration households, subsidies for peanut fine seeds and breeds information mainly coming from agriculture technology department or Seeds Company have positive effect on peanut farmers'new peanut varieties choices. However, the peanut farmers with a high non-agricultural income will have negative effect on new peanut varieties choices.
3:Constraint factors analysis on peanut mechanized harvest technology promotion
With the current urbanization and industrialization development trend, massive transfer appears in the agricultural labor force. Such transfer deepens the aging and non-professional levels of rural labor force. The time and energy inputted in agricultural labor are restrained. The current main peanut producing areas have low mechanized harvest levels. It is not conducive to the peanut production development. The natural geographical conditions such as topography, landforms and soil texture are complex and variable. Agricultural machinery does not match agricultural technology. Farmer household scale is small. Operation model is decentralized. Agricultural machinery socialization service needs improving. Policy support is relatively insufficient. All factors above are the important reasons restraining peanut mechanized harvest development. Analysis on the influencing factors of peanut farmers'adopting mechanized harvest technology shows that:The following factors have positive effect on peanut farmers'adopting mechanized harvest technology:age, peanut acreage per agriculture labor, demonstration households, subsidies factors, plains planting terrain etc. However the following factors have negative effect on peanut farmers'adopting mechanized harvest technology:female agricultural producers, high local mechanical service fees etc.
4:Peanut production structural adjustment in domestic main peanut producing areas
The paper estimates the comparative advantage patterns between peanut and its major competing crops in domestic main peanut producing areas. On this basis, the paper probes into the feasibility and adjustment direction of peanut production structural adjustment. The analysis shows that the comparative advantages in domestic main peanut producing areas have not been fully played. There is space for further structural adjustment. After building the RDRCC analytical framework, the suggestions for current production structural adjustment in main peanut producing areas are as follows:Liaoning and Henan peanut production have the most significant comparative advantages, they should consider to further expand peanut production; Shandong and Hebei peanut production have certain comparative advantages, they should consider to appropriately expand peanut production; however, for Anhui, Sichuan, Guangdong and Guangxi, their peanut productions have no comparative advantages compared with main competing crops. As a result, they should mainly try to achieve steady development.
According to the researches above, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions as follows:accelerate the cultivation and promotion of high-quality special peanut varieties, comprehensively improve peanut production standardization levels, form regional distribution; establish peanut harvest mechanization technology model according to local conditions.
引文
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