企业级气象与地质灾害预警技术研究与应用
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摘要
每逢汛期，中国石油下属各企业都要耗费大量精力做好防汛工作。如果对可能发生的灾害做到及时预警，那么将会大大减少企业的损失。因此，开展针对中国石油的气象与地质灾害预报预警工作，辅助各个运营单位提前做出防范措施，对于安全生产十分重要。基于上述目标，本文重点开展如下研究内容：（1）预警指标体系的研究：在气象灾害和地质灾害对各生产单位影响事件的统计分析，以及结合生产单位需求的基础之上，建立企业级的气象指标和地质灾害信息指标，并划分预警等级。研究各类气象灾害和地质灾害对石油石化企业的危害形式，并提出有针对性的防范措施建议。（2）基于空间分析技术的预警信息处理与发布技术研究：本文研究基于地理信息技术（GIS）的预警信息处理与分析技术，形成一套有效的面向企业的灾害预警处理与分析方法；研究在集群环境下的并行计算技术，缩短分析时间，保证预警信息的及时生成和发送。（3）研发了一套集成的信息与专业服务平台，为中石油的防汛管理和灾害预警提供了统一集成的信息和专业服务。（4）开展区域性管道地质灾害预警技术研究。在管道易发分区的基础上，采用GIS技术，结合预报数据和实况降水数据，形成针对特定管道的地质灾害预警模型和实现方法。（5）预警信息消息推送机制研究。建立企业级预警信息推送流程，开发了相关推送接口，实现多种途径的预警信息发送。（6）基于大数据角度，采用向量空间模型对长输管道防汛措施的综合有效性进行评估。
基于上述研究内容，本文建立了一整套面向企业级别的气象与地质灾害预警技术研究与应用方案，取得了较好的应用效果。
PetroChina have to spend a lot of effort during the flood season. If timely warning ofpossible disasters, it will greatly reduce the loss. For the production safety ofPetroChina, it is important to perform meteorological and geological disasterswarning, which can help subordinate enterprises make preventive measures inadvance. Based on the above goal, this dissertation focuses the following research:(1)The early-warning index system. Based on the statistical analysis of failure events onthe production units affected by meteorological disasters and geological disasters, andwith the needs of production units, enterprise-level meteorological indicators andgeological disasters indicators are established. And the warning level is divided intothree level: high, medium, low. The harm forms of various types of meteorologicaldisasters and geological disasters on petroleum and petrochemical enterprises arestudied, and the targeted preventive measures are also put forward.(2) Based on thespatial analysis technology, the early warning information process technology andrelease technology are studied. In this dissertation, based on the GeographicInformation System(GIS),an effective business-oriented technique of early-warninginformation process and analysis is built. Meanwhile, the parallel computing in clusterenvironment is researched, which shortens the analysis time to ensure the warninginformation timely generated and sent.(3) An integrated suite of information andprofessional is developed, which provides a unified and integrated information andprofessional services for management in flood season and disaster warning ofPetroChina.(4) The regional pipeline geological disaster warning technology researchis carried out. Based pipeline prone partition, the precipitation forecast data and livedata, we adopted GIS to build the geological disaster warning model and method for aspecific pipeline.(5) Warning information push mechanism. In order to achieve avariety ways of early-warning information transmission, enterprise-level earlywarning information push workflow is built, and push interfaces is developed.(6)Based on the view of big data, the vector space model is adopted to assess theeffectiveness of management measures along pipeline in flood season.
Based on the content of the study, we established a set research technology ofenterprise-level of meteorological and geological disaster warning, and obtained abetter application.
基于上述研究内容，本文建立了一整套面向企业级别的气象与地质灾害预警技术研究与应用方案，取得了较好的应用效果。
PetroChina have to spend a lot of effort during the flood season. If timely warning ofpossible disasters, it will greatly reduce the loss. For the production safety ofPetroChina, it is important to perform meteorological and geological disasterswarning, which can help subordinate enterprises make preventive measures inadvance. Based on the above goal, this dissertation focuses the following research:(1)The early-warning index system. Based on the statistical analysis of failure events onthe production units affected by meteorological disasters and geological disasters, andwith the needs of production units, enterprise-level meteorological indicators andgeological disasters indicators are established. And the warning level is divided intothree level: high, medium, low. The harm forms of various types of meteorologicaldisasters and geological disasters on petroleum and petrochemical enterprises arestudied, and the targeted preventive measures are also put forward.(2) Based on thespatial analysis technology, the early warning information process technology andrelease technology are studied. In this dissertation, based on the GeographicInformation System(GIS),an effective business-oriented technique of early-warninginformation process and analysis is built. Meanwhile, the parallel computing in clusterenvironment is researched, which shortens the analysis time to ensure the warninginformation timely generated and sent.(3) An integrated suite of information andprofessional is developed, which provides a unified and integrated information andprofessional services for management in flood season and disaster warning ofPetroChina.(4) The regional pipeline geological disaster warning technology researchis carried out. Based pipeline prone partition, the precipitation forecast data and livedata, we adopted GIS to build the geological disaster warning model and method for aspecific pipeline.(5) Warning information push mechanism. In order to achieve avariety ways of early-warning information transmission, enterprise-level earlywarning information push workflow is built, and push interfaces is developed.(6)Based on the view of big data, the vector space model is adopted to assess theeffectiveness of management measures along pipeline in flood season.
Based on the content of the study, we established a set research technology ofenterprise-level of meteorological and geological disaster warning, and obtained abetter application.
引文
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