基于灰色系统理论的压力容器安全运行研究
摘要
国内沿江和沿海石化企业加大了炼制中东高含硫原油的比例,国产原油的酸值和含硫量也呈上升趋势,各种介质环境加剧了炼化设备的腐蚀。在某炼油厂第一和第三常减压蒸馏装置设置电阻探针对腐蚀速率进行了测量,对原油的硫含量、盐含量、脱盐后的盐含量、酸值、塔顶产品槽中铁离子的变化、冷凝水的pH值等与腐蚀有关的因素进行了监测。采用灰色系统理论对影响腐蚀速率及其相关因素进行了分析,求出了绝对关联度、相对关联度和综合关联度,进行了优势分析。炼制胜利混合原油对腐蚀影响最大的因素是含酸量,炼制中东进口原油对腐蚀影响最大的因素是脱盐后的含盐量,最后对关联度计算结果和设备腐蚀的原因进行了分析。
在常压蒸馏塔顶换热器入口分配管弯头处采用超声波定点测厚,弯头壁厚数列是准光滑序列,一次累加生成具有准指数规律。建立了GM(1,1)模型,对原始数据进行模拟的平均相对误差达到合格级别。通过对数据序列进行平移,对GM(1,1)模型进行改进提高了模型精度。建立DGM、Verhulst模型对摆动序列进行了模拟,建立GM(1,N)和GM(0,N)模型对腐蚀速率与相关因素的关系进行了分析,对未来可能的壁厚进行了区间预测。采用灰色系统理论对冲刷严重的部位进行寿命预测是可行的,有助于制定合理的检修周期,保障设备的安全。
常减压装置塔顶换热器冲刷腐蚀严重,需要进行改造,考虑了采用普通管壳式换热器和螺旋折流板结构两种形式,换热管采用20号钢加装TH847涂料、20号钢渗铝、316L和双相钢等方案。在传热效率、制造费用、维护费用、安全程度、制造难度等改造目标下,采用灰色系统理论对方案进行了灰靶决策、灰色关联决策和灰色变权决策。灰色决策的结果表明采用同样的换热管螺旋折流板结构更优越。采用螺旋折流板结构和20号钢渗铝换热管的方案为最佳选择。
螺旋折流板换热器的制造难度是一个很大的灰数,以两管程换热器为例,将一个周期的折流板分为四块,对管孔的排布方式进行研究分析,建立了数学模型,编制了数控加工程序。在MITSUBISHI操作系统的数控钻铣床上,实现了阶梯式螺旋折流板上孔的加工。采用先进制造技术实现了灰数的白化,降低了制造成本,提高了安全性。
More high-sulphur crude oil imported from Middle-east, the content of sulphur and acid in homemade oil is rising too, the corrosion is serious in refinery. Measured the corrosion pate with electric resistance probe, monitored sulfur value, salt value, salt value after desalt, acid value, iron ion value and pH value of cooling water. Carried on grey correlation analysis, calculated absolute, relative and synthetic degree of incidence, carried on predominance analysis too. For Shengli crude oil the main factor to the corrosion pate is acid value in crude oil, but for Middle-east oil the main factor is salt value after desalt.
Measured the thickness of elbow by ultrasonic thickness meter, which is a quasi smooth sequence, accumulating generation operator is according to quasi exponent law. Established GM (1,1) model which passed error check is eligible. Adding a number to the sequence, then subtract it from the result, increased prediction precision. Used DGM and Verhulst model to simulate asway sequence, used GM (1, N) and GM (0, N) model to simulate corrosion and interrelated sequence, used GM (1, 1) model to predict the thickness in the future. Grey system model is feasible for eroding corrosion, can help for setting down overhaul period, and ensure safety.
For exchangers rebuilding project, considered general tube-shell exchangers and helix- baffled structure, tube materials are 20 steel with TH847 coating, 20 steel aluminizing, 316L and dual phase steel. Considered heat transfer efficiency, manufacture fee, maintenance fee, safety and manufacture difficulty, carried on grey target decision, grey incidence decision and grey variable weight decision. Find that helix-baffled structure is better than common baffle structure; helix-baffled structure with 20 steel aluminizing tubes is the best preference plan.
Fabricate difficulty is a prodigious grey number, aimed at helix-baffled exchangers with two courses in tube side, splitted one baffle into four parts, analyzed the tube holes’distributing, created mathematics model, compiled numerical controlled program with EIA code, realized numerical controlled process on Mitsubishi numerical controlled machine tool. This carried out the white number, lowered the cost, and ensured the security.
在常压蒸馏塔顶换热器入口分配管弯头处采用超声波定点测厚,弯头壁厚数列是准光滑序列,一次累加生成具有准指数规律。建立了GM(1,1)模型,对原始数据进行模拟的平均相对误差达到合格级别。通过对数据序列进行平移,对GM(1,1)模型进行改进提高了模型精度。建立DGM、Verhulst模型对摆动序列进行了模拟,建立GM(1,N)和GM(0,N)模型对腐蚀速率与相关因素的关系进行了分析,对未来可能的壁厚进行了区间预测。采用灰色系统理论对冲刷严重的部位进行寿命预测是可行的,有助于制定合理的检修周期,保障设备的安全。
常减压装置塔顶换热器冲刷腐蚀严重,需要进行改造,考虑了采用普通管壳式换热器和螺旋折流板结构两种形式,换热管采用20号钢加装TH847涂料、20号钢渗铝、316L和双相钢等方案。在传热效率、制造费用、维护费用、安全程度、制造难度等改造目标下,采用灰色系统理论对方案进行了灰靶决策、灰色关联决策和灰色变权决策。灰色决策的结果表明采用同样的换热管螺旋折流板结构更优越。采用螺旋折流板结构和20号钢渗铝换热管的方案为最佳选择。
螺旋折流板换热器的制造难度是一个很大的灰数,以两管程换热器为例,将一个周期的折流板分为四块,对管孔的排布方式进行研究分析,建立了数学模型,编制了数控加工程序。在MITSUBISHI操作系统的数控钻铣床上,实现了阶梯式螺旋折流板上孔的加工。采用先进制造技术实现了灰数的白化,降低了制造成本,提高了安全性。
More high-sulphur crude oil imported from Middle-east, the content of sulphur and acid in homemade oil is rising too, the corrosion is serious in refinery. Measured the corrosion pate with electric resistance probe, monitored sulfur value, salt value, salt value after desalt, acid value, iron ion value and pH value of cooling water. Carried on grey correlation analysis, calculated absolute, relative and synthetic degree of incidence, carried on predominance analysis too. For Shengli crude oil the main factor to the corrosion pate is acid value in crude oil, but for Middle-east oil the main factor is salt value after desalt.
Measured the thickness of elbow by ultrasonic thickness meter, which is a quasi smooth sequence, accumulating generation operator is according to quasi exponent law. Established GM (1,1) model which passed error check is eligible. Adding a number to the sequence, then subtract it from the result, increased prediction precision. Used DGM and Verhulst model to simulate asway sequence, used GM (1, N) and GM (0, N) model to simulate corrosion and interrelated sequence, used GM (1, 1) model to predict the thickness in the future. Grey system model is feasible for eroding corrosion, can help for setting down overhaul period, and ensure safety.
For exchangers rebuilding project, considered general tube-shell exchangers and helix- baffled structure, tube materials are 20 steel with TH847 coating, 20 steel aluminizing, 316L and dual phase steel. Considered heat transfer efficiency, manufacture fee, maintenance fee, safety and manufacture difficulty, carried on grey target decision, grey incidence decision and grey variable weight decision. Find that helix-baffled structure is better than common baffle structure; helix-baffled structure with 20 steel aluminizing tubes is the best preference plan.
Fabricate difficulty is a prodigious grey number, aimed at helix-baffled exchangers with two courses in tube side, splitted one baffle into four parts, analyzed the tube holes’distributing, created mathematics model, compiled numerical controlled program with EIA code, realized numerical controlled process on Mitsubishi numerical controlled machine tool. This carried out the white number, lowered the cost, and ensured the security.
引文
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