面向不确定环境的应急物流抗风险能力评价
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摘要
近年来,伴随着各种突发性事件的频繁发生,应急物流逐渐引起了人们的关注。应急物流已成为应急管理的重要组成部分。突发性事件的发生通常难以预测,而且一旦爆发,往往会影响到正常的社会秩序。突变的物质需求和紧迫的时间要求都对应急物流的快速反应提出了严峻的考验。应急物流能否实现其时间效应和空间效应,直接关系到灾害损失的大小。然而,与一般商业物流不同,应急物流在实现的过程中,总会存在着各种不确定因素,使得应急物流面临着更多的风险。通讯中断、基础设施受损等都对应急物流的顺利进行构成威胁。针对这些风险的应急物流需要具备怎样的抵抗能力?换言之,现有的应急物流能够抵抗什么样的风险?这些都是决策者实施应急管理的重要依据。目前,国内对于应急物流体系的研究尚处于起步阶段,对应急物流的内涵、特征和风险等的研究尚未形成共识,完善的应急物流体系也尚未构建。因此,针对不确定因素引发的风险,有必要对应急物流的抗风险能力展开研究。
本文在应急物流和风险相关研究的基础上,总结了应急物流的内涵、分类及特征,分析了应急物流所处的不确定环境,阐述了应急物流抗风险能力的相关内容。同时,本文建立了应急物流抗风险能力评价指标体系,通过引入灰色综合评价模型,对应急物流抗风险能力进行了评价。最后,通过实例验证,证明了层次分析法和灰色综合评价法相结合的方法,在应急物流抗风险能力评价研究中的可行性。本文对应急物流抗风险能力进行了评价,希望为这一领域的研究工作提供一种新的研究思路。
In recent years, along with all kinds of unexpected events, emergency logistics gradually attracts attention. Unexpected events are usually unpredictable, but once start, which would affect the normal social order. Mutation demand and tight time requirements pose a severe test to the rapid response of emergency logistics. Now, emergency logistics has become an important component of emergency management, and its time effect and spatial effect are the direct impact on the size of disaster losses. However, Different from general business logistics, in the implementation process of emergency logistics activities, there are various uncertain factors, which make the logistics activities facing risk. Communications disruption and infrastructure damage pose a threat to the emergency logistics. Facing the risk, what resistance should emergency logistics requires? In other words, what kind of risk can the existing emergency logistics resist? These are an important for decision-makers to make emergency management. Currently, the domestic research for emergency logistics is still in its infancy. The meaning, characteristics and risk of the study in the emergency logistics is not yet consensus, and improve emergency response logistics system has not built. Therefore, for the risk caused by uncertainties, it is necessary to commence the study of anti-risk ability.
Based on the emergency logistics and risk-related research, this paper summarizes the content, classification and characteristics of emergency logistics, analysis the uncertain environment of the emergency logistics, introduces anti-risk ability of emergency logistics. Meanwhile, the paper establishes evaluation anti-risk ability index system and builds comprehensive evaluation model based on the gray theory. And the feasibility of model application is verifies by concrete examples. The research in anti-risk ability of emergency logistics is hoped to provide a new research approach in this area.
本文在应急物流和风险相关研究的基础上,总结了应急物流的内涵、分类及特征,分析了应急物流所处的不确定环境,阐述了应急物流抗风险能力的相关内容。同时,本文建立了应急物流抗风险能力评价指标体系,通过引入灰色综合评价模型,对应急物流抗风险能力进行了评价。最后,通过实例验证,证明了层次分析法和灰色综合评价法相结合的方法,在应急物流抗风险能力评价研究中的可行性。本文对应急物流抗风险能力进行了评价,希望为这一领域的研究工作提供一种新的研究思路。
In recent years, along with all kinds of unexpected events, emergency logistics gradually attracts attention. Unexpected events are usually unpredictable, but once start, which would affect the normal social order. Mutation demand and tight time requirements pose a severe test to the rapid response of emergency logistics. Now, emergency logistics has become an important component of emergency management, and its time effect and spatial effect are the direct impact on the size of disaster losses. However, Different from general business logistics, in the implementation process of emergency logistics activities, there are various uncertain factors, which make the logistics activities facing risk. Communications disruption and infrastructure damage pose a threat to the emergency logistics. Facing the risk, what resistance should emergency logistics requires? In other words, what kind of risk can the existing emergency logistics resist? These are an important for decision-makers to make emergency management. Currently, the domestic research for emergency logistics is still in its infancy. The meaning, characteristics and risk of the study in the emergency logistics is not yet consensus, and improve emergency response logistics system has not built. Therefore, for the risk caused by uncertainties, it is necessary to commence the study of anti-risk ability.
Based on the emergency logistics and risk-related research, this paper summarizes the content, classification and characteristics of emergency logistics, analysis the uncertain environment of the emergency logistics, introduces anti-risk ability of emergency logistics. Meanwhile, the paper establishes evaluation anti-risk ability index system and builds comprehensive evaluation model based on the gray theory. And the feasibility of model application is verifies by concrete examples. The research in anti-risk ability of emergency logistics is hoped to provide a new research approach in this area.
引文
[1]欧忠文,李科,姜大立等.应急物流保障机制研究.物流技术,2005(9)：13-15.
[2]范厚明,赵彤,刘妍等.我国突发自然灾害救助应急物流配送机制研究.大连理工大学学报,2008,29(4)：73-78.
[3]王文亮.应急物流中的信息系统建设.中国物流与采购,2003(23)：30.
[4]王宗喜,赵蕾.“星地一体”应急物流指挥平台的建设.物流技术与应用,2008(9)：96-99.
[5]Philippe. Jorion著,陈跃等译.风险价值VAR.北京：中信出版社,2005.
[6]WilsonR. andCrouchE. A. C. Riskassessmentandcomparisons:anintroduction. Science,1 987,236:267～270.
[7]袁泽沛,王琼.技术创新与创新风险的研究综述.经济学动态,2002,3：79-82.
[8]Frank H. Knight著.王宇,王文玉译.风险,不确定性和利润.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[9]Mark Haynes Daniell著.滕淑芬译.风险世界.台北：商周出版社,2002.
[10]Roger Miller, Donald Lessard; Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects.International Journal of Project Management; 2001.
[11]Turner, J. R. The Handbook of Project-based Management.. Ma Garw -Hill, Maidenhead, UK,1992.
[12]Williams, Jr., Risk Management and insurance (8th ed.), New York:Irwin/McGraw Hill Inc.,1998.
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[17]Tim Bedford, Roger Cooke. Probabilistic risk analysis:foundations and methods. Beijing:World Publishing Corporation,2003.
[18]赵勇,封少娟,刘佳.应急物流风险分析研究.物流科技,2006,29(133)：9-13.
[19]李静宜.GIS在应急物流中的应用.商场现代化,2006(481)：117-118.
[20]李建国,唐士晟,蒋兆远.应急物流保障能力评价模型研究.兰州交通大学学报：自然 科学版,2007,26(6)：64-67.
[21]何建敏,刘春林,曹杰等.应急管理与应急系统：选址调度与算法.北京：科学出版社,2005.
[22]李志伟.基于AHP法和BP神经网络的应急物流风险评估与预测模型.物流技术,2008,27(9)：75-77.
[23]鞠彦兵,杨尚洪,王爱华.应急物流风险评价研究.第12届全国信息管理与工业工程学术会议论文汇编,2009.
[24]伍冠玲.灰色综合评价法在建筑工程评标中的应用.建设经济,2008,434(3)：271-272.
[25]诸葛福民,周刚,程卫民等.基于灰色模糊变权理论的矿井热害综合评价模型.煤炭科学技术,2009,37(7)：60-63.
[26]周晓贤.大坝安全监控的灰色综合评价模型研究：(硕士学位论文).南京：河海大学,2001.
[27]赖德莲.泥石流危险性的灰色综合评价模型.科技资讯,2007,13：220-221.
[28]张新波,马涛.小水电工程项目的灰色综合评价.水力发电学报,2004,23(3)：39-43.
[29]孟文清,石华旺,李万庆.建筑工程观感质量的层次灰色综合评价方法.数学的实践与认识,2005,35(4)：105-109.
[30]董奋义.利用灰色定权聚类法对河南省各地区工业发展水平的综合评价.河南：工业大学学报,2009,5(1)：45-48.
[31]罗冠枝,徐林荣.基于粗糙集和灰色理论的模糊综合定权法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用.安全与环境工程,2008,15(3)：1-5,9.
[32]张楷颜.灰色模糊综合评价法在港口建设项目后评价中的应用.水运工程,2009,4：69-72.
[33]张识宇,李大建,杨乃定.基于综合赋权的风险企业增值潜力灰色评价方法.控制与决策,2008,23(10)：1122-1128.
[34]Linet Ozdamar, Ediz Ekinci, Beste Kuc, ukyazici. Emergency Logistics Planning in Natural Disasters. Annals of Operations Research,2004,129(1-4):217-245.
[35]Meishiang Yalingtseng Jingwenchen. A Scenario Planning Approach for the Flood Emergency Logistics Preparation Problem under Uncertainty. Transportation Research,2007(43E):737-754.
[36]欧忠文,王会云,姜大立等.应急物流.重庆大学学报,2004,27(3)：164-167.
[37]王丰,姜玉宏,王进.应急物流.北京：中国物资出版社,2007.
[38]王志科,吕庆华.我国应急物流研究综述.物流科技,2009(6)：4-6.
[39]高东椰,刘新华.浅论应急物流.中国物流与采购,2003(23)：22-23.
[40]何明坷.应急物流的成本损失无处不在.中国物流与采购,2003(23)：18-19.
[41]王旭坪,傅克俊,胡祥培.应急物流系统及其快速反应机制研究.中国软科学,2005(6).
[42]甘红云.应急物流研究综述.湘潭师范学院学报,2009,31(6)：60-61.
[43]高文军,陈菊红,胡飞虎.我国应急物流研究综述与展望.物流科技,2009,8,6-10.
[44]United Nation, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. Mitigating Natural Disasters Phenomena, Effects and Options-A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners. New York:Unite Nations,1991,1-164.
[45]焦红,吴晓东,王开勇.军事物流系统战时运行环境与不确定性因素分析.军事物流,2009,7,223-225.
[46]王晶,张玲,黄钧等.基于不确定需求的鲁棒应急物流系统.数学的实践与认识,2009,39(20)：53-60.
[47]钱佳.不确定环境下模糊应急物资库存模型.上海海事大学学报.2010,31(1)：33-38.
[48]熊海帆.巨灾风险管理问题研究综述.西南民族大学学报,2009,2：49-53.
[49]胡传平.区域火灾风险评估与灭火救援力量布局优化研究：(博士学位论文).上海：同济大学,2006.
[50]杨雪冬.风险社会与秩序重建.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003.
[51]Milliken.F. J.. Three type of perceived uncertainty about the environment:state, effect, and response uncertainty. Academy of Management Review.1987,12(1):133-143.
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[57]赵天忠,杨广.基于层次分析法的军事物流安全性评估.军事经济研究,2009,7：31-33.
[58]朱炜,胡安辉.层次分析法在应急物流方法选择中的应用.物流技术,2005,3：45-47.
[59]谢乃明,灰色系统建模技术研究：(博士学位论文).南京：南京航空航天大学,2008.
[60]侯景亮,迟红娟,李远富.灰色多层次评价法在工程项目选择中的应用.西安交通大学学 报,2007,8(4)：23-27.
[2]范厚明,赵彤,刘妍等.我国突发自然灾害救助应急物流配送机制研究.大连理工大学学报,2008,29(4)：73-78.
[3]王文亮.应急物流中的信息系统建设.中国物流与采购,2003(23)：30.
[4]王宗喜,赵蕾.“星地一体”应急物流指挥平台的建设.物流技术与应用,2008(9)：96-99.
[5]Philippe. Jorion著,陈跃等译.风险价值VAR.北京：中信出版社,2005.
[6]WilsonR. andCrouchE. A. C. Riskassessmentandcomparisons:anintroduction. Science,1 987,236:267～270.
[7]袁泽沛,王琼.技术创新与创新风险的研究综述.经济学动态,2002,3：79-82.
[8]Frank H. Knight著.王宇,王文玉译.风险,不确定性和利润.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[9]Mark Haynes Daniell著.滕淑芬译.风险世界.台北：商周出版社,2002.
[10]Roger Miller, Donald Lessard; Understanding and managing risks in large engineering projects.International Journal of Project Management; 2001.
[11]Turner, J. R. The Handbook of Project-based Management.. Ma Garw -Hill, Maidenhead, UK,1992.
[12]Williams, Jr., Risk Management and insurance (8th ed.), New York:Irwin/McGraw Hill Inc.,1998.
[13]宋明哲.风险管理.台北：中华企业管理发展中心,1984.
[14]蒋维,金磊.中国城市综合减灾对策.北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1992.
[15]United Nation, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. Mitigating Natural Disasters Phenomena, Effects and Options-A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners. New York:Unite Nations,1991,1-164.
[16]吴新燕：城市地震灾害风险分析与应急准备能力评价体系研究：(博士学位论文).北京：中国地震局地球物理研究所,2006.
[17]Tim Bedford, Roger Cooke. Probabilistic risk analysis:foundations and methods. Beijing:World Publishing Corporation,2003.
[18]赵勇,封少娟,刘佳.应急物流风险分析研究.物流科技,2006,29(133)：9-13.
[19]李静宜.GIS在应急物流中的应用.商场现代化,2006(481)：117-118.
[20]李建国,唐士晟,蒋兆远.应急物流保障能力评价模型研究.兰州交通大学学报：自然 科学版,2007,26(6)：64-67.
[21]何建敏,刘春林,曹杰等.应急管理与应急系统：选址调度与算法.北京：科学出版社,2005.
[22]李志伟.基于AHP法和BP神经网络的应急物流风险评估与预测模型.物流技术,2008,27(9)：75-77.
[23]鞠彦兵,杨尚洪,王爱华.应急物流风险评价研究.第12届全国信息管理与工业工程学术会议论文汇编,2009.
[24]伍冠玲.灰色综合评价法在建筑工程评标中的应用.建设经济,2008,434(3)：271-272.
[25]诸葛福民,周刚,程卫民等.基于灰色模糊变权理论的矿井热害综合评价模型.煤炭科学技术,2009,37(7)：60-63.
[26]周晓贤.大坝安全监控的灰色综合评价模型研究：(硕士学位论文).南京：河海大学,2001.
[27]赖德莲.泥石流危险性的灰色综合评价模型.科技资讯,2007,13：220-221.
[28]张新波,马涛.小水电工程项目的灰色综合评价.水力发电学报,2004,23(3)：39-43.
[29]孟文清,石华旺,李万庆.建筑工程观感质量的层次灰色综合评价方法.数学的实践与认识,2005,35(4)：105-109.
[30]董奋义.利用灰色定权聚类法对河南省各地区工业发展水平的综合评价.河南：工业大学学报,2009,5(1)：45-48.
[31]罗冠枝,徐林荣.基于粗糙集和灰色理论的模糊综合定权法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用.安全与环境工程,2008,15(3)：1-5,9.
[32]张楷颜.灰色模糊综合评价法在港口建设项目后评价中的应用.水运工程,2009,4：69-72.
[33]张识宇,李大建,杨乃定.基于综合赋权的风险企业增值潜力灰色评价方法.控制与决策,2008,23(10)：1122-1128.
[34]Linet Ozdamar, Ediz Ekinci, Beste Kuc, ukyazici. Emergency Logistics Planning in Natural Disasters. Annals of Operations Research,2004,129(1-4):217-245.
[35]Meishiang Yalingtseng Jingwenchen. A Scenario Planning Approach for the Flood Emergency Logistics Preparation Problem under Uncertainty. Transportation Research,2007(43E):737-754.
[36]欧忠文,王会云,姜大立等.应急物流.重庆大学学报,2004,27(3)：164-167.
[37]王丰,姜玉宏,王进.应急物流.北京：中国物资出版社,2007.
[38]王志科,吕庆华.我国应急物流研究综述.物流科技,2009(6)：4-6.
[39]高东椰,刘新华.浅论应急物流.中国物流与采购,2003(23)：22-23.
[40]何明坷.应急物流的成本损失无处不在.中国物流与采购,2003(23)：18-19.
[41]王旭坪,傅克俊,胡祥培.应急物流系统及其快速反应机制研究.中国软科学,2005(6).
[42]甘红云.应急物流研究综述.湘潭师范学院学报,2009,31(6)：60-61.
[43]高文军,陈菊红,胡飞虎.我国应急物流研究综述与展望.物流科技,2009,8,6-10.
[44]United Nation, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. Mitigating Natural Disasters Phenomena, Effects and Options-A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners. New York:Unite Nations,1991,1-164.
[45]焦红,吴晓东,王开勇.军事物流系统战时运行环境与不确定性因素分析.军事物流,2009,7,223-225.
[46]王晶,张玲,黄钧等.基于不确定需求的鲁棒应急物流系统.数学的实践与认识,2009,39(20)：53-60.
[47]钱佳.不确定环境下模糊应急物资库存模型.上海海事大学学报.2010,31(1)：33-38.
[48]熊海帆.巨灾风险管理问题研究综述.西南民族大学学报,2009,2：49-53.
[49]胡传平.区域火灾风险评估与灭火救援力量布局优化研究：(博士学位论文).上海：同济大学,2006.
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