梯级水库群多目标优化调度与决策方法研究
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摘要
在能源短缺、节能减排的大背景下,我国流域水电能源开发的力度增强,步伐加快,大型流域水库群规模越来越大,其联合运行调度问题也越来越复杂。一方面,梯级水库上下游之间存在复杂的水力和电力联系(约束复杂),以及受入库径流的不确定性的影响,水库群优化调度的理论研究与实际应用存在一定的差距；另一方面,随着人类生活水平以及认识的提高,对大型水利枢纽的综合利用需求也日益增强,而不同调度目标之间又存在一定的竞争与冲突关系,传统的水库优化调度理论与方法应用于新时期水库群优化调度问题求解时存在一定的局限性,无法适应水库群多目标调度、综合效益最大化发挥的新需求,亟需研究水库群优化调度的新的理论与方法。围绕水电能源大开发下梯级水库群多目标联合调度运行以及不同调度目标非劣解方案决策问题,以水库群长期综合效益最大为目标,结合系统工程理论、智能优化方法、多目标优化与决策理论,从中长期入库径流预报、单目标优化调度、水沙多目标优化调度与决策等多方面对梯级水库群联合运行调度问题展开了深入研究,并取得了一些具有理论意义和工程应用价值的研究成果。全文取得了如下的主要研究成果：
(1)水电站水库中长期组合入库径流预报方法研究。首先以自回归滑动平均模型、最近邻抽样回归模型、人工神经网络模型为基础构建了水电站水库入库径流预报模型,在相关模型参数率定之后,以相关指标验证了所建模型的合理性与可靠性；以之为基础,并结合月入库径流的周期性、年内不均匀性特征建立了基于支持向量机的月径流分月组合预报模型,继而以平均相对误差、确定性系数为评价指标搭建入库径流预报精度评价模型；以龙盘水电站水库月入库径流预报的应用效果表明组合预报模型在降低了单一预报模型不确定的同时,取得了更高的预报精度,验证了所构建模型的合理性与优越性。
(2)梯级水库群优化调度方法研究。结合混合蛙跳算法良好的全局寻优性能以及免疫克隆选择算法较好的局部搜索能力两方面的优势,提出了免疫蛙跳算法并给出了相应的求解流程；同时针对梯级水库群之间的水力、电力联系,为提高智能优化方法在求解水库群优化调度问题时的寻优效率,给出了水库群优化调度问题的可行域构建方法以及初始解生成方法。分别以梯级水库群中长期优化调度、短期优化调度为例,结合相应常规优化方法,验证了免疫蛙跳算法在求解梯级水库群优化调度问题上的可行性、优越性。
(3)基于数据挖掘的梯级水库群优化调度研究。以梯级水库群确定性优化调度最优运行过程为计算资料,首先构建了由时间因子、空间因子、能量因子、决策变量组成的运行样本集,继而选用粗糙集方法筛选出各月调度函数决策变量及影响因子,最后选用支持向量机方法为拟合调度函数,并结合调度函数长系列模拟运行中关键问题的分析给出了数据挖掘方法在梯级水库群隐随机优化调度的应用流程,以金沙江中游梯级水库调度函数提取为例验证了方法的合理性与优越性,为梯级水库群寻找调度规律、拟定联合调度规则提供了新的思路。
(4)梯级水库水沙多目标优化调度研究。针对多沙河流梯级水库长期兴利与排沙减淤之间的矛盾,以一维泥沙冲淤计算模型为基础,首先构建了梯级水库群水沙多目标优化调度模型；考虑到传统水沙联合调度问题通常采用水库调度和泥沙冲淤计算松耦合计算思路的不足,结合多目标动态规划迭代算法,提出了逐次逼近动态规划和多目标动态规划迭代算法相结合的梯级水库水沙联合调度降维求解算法；针对水沙冲淤计算不满足动态规划无后效性且计算时间较长的特点,转换求解思路,以泥沙淤积量为基本目标,发电量为约束目标,并给出了相应的求解流程。最后以三峡水库为例,给出了基于多目标动态规划迭代算法的水沙非劣解集,验证了求解方法的合理性和有效性。
(5)水库水沙多目标优化调度方案决策方法研究。针对传统TOPSIS决策方法未考虑指标间相关性以及赋权方法单一的不足,首先构建了基于马氏距离的TOPSIS多属性决策方法,并给出了主客观组合赋权方法；继而建立了水库水沙联合调度方案评价指标体系,并分析了相关指标的计算方法以及指标间的相关性；最后以三峡水库水沙调度非劣解集方案优劣排序为例,得到了待评价方案集的方案排序结果以及最优均衡解方案,实例对比验证了所建立水沙调度方案评价模型及求解方法的合理性。
Under the background of energy shortage, energy conservation and emissions reduction, strength of hydropower endevelopment in China enhances and pace speeds up, meanwhile the scale of reservoir groups gets bigger and bigger, and the joint operation problem is becoming more and more complicated. On the one hand, there are complex hydraulic and electrical connections between upstream and downstream for cascaded reservoirs(complex constraints), and as well as the influence of incoming runoff uncertainty there is certain gap between theoretical research and practical application of reservoirs optimal operation; on the other hand, with the improvement of human living standards and knowledge, the comprehensive utilization demand of large water control peojects is growing and a certain competition and conflict relationship exists in different operation goals, thus there is certain limitation to use the traditional theories and methods of reservoir optimal operation to solve problems of reservoirs optimal operation in the new period, unable to meet the requirements of comprehensive benefits for reservoirs multi-objective operation, and new theories and methods of reservoirs joint operation are necessitated in present. Around multi-objective joint operation of cascade reservoirs and and programs decision problem between different targets under the the background of rapid development of hypowerelectric energy, aiming at maximizing reservoirs long-period comprehensive benefits, combined with theory of systems engineering, intelligent optimization methods, and multi-objective optimization and decision theory, we deeply study the joint operation problem of cascade reservoir from several aspects, as mid-long term runoff forecast, single objective optimal operation, water-sediment multi-objective optimal operation and decision joint operation and a series of research results with theoretical and practical value are achieved. The main research results in this paper are listed as follows:
(1)Mid-long term inflow runoff forecast method of reservoir has been researched. Firstly autoregressive moving average model, nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive model, artificial neural network model are introduced as reservoir runoff forecast models, the related model parameters are calibrated, and the rationality and reliability of those models are verified by relevant indexes; Based on those models, combined with the cyclical and years non-uniformity characteristics of month inflow runoff, monthly combination forecast model based on support vector machine (SVM) is established, then indicators of the average relative error and determination coefficient are adopted to set up runoff forecast precision-evaluation model; Take inflow runoff forecast of Longpan hypdropower station for example, results show that combination forecast model can reduce the uncertainty of single forecast model and obtain higher forecast accuracy, thus the rationality and superiority of the proposed model are verified.
(2)Optimal operation methods of cascade reservoirs have been researched. Combined with good global optimization performance of shuffled frog leaping algorithm and good local search ability of immune clonal selection algorithm, this paper immune leapfrog algorithm is proposed in this paper and the corresponding process is given; Meanwhile for hydraulic and electrical link between cascaded reservoirs, in order to improve optimization efficiency of intelligent optimization algoriths while solving reservoirs optimal operation problems, methods of building the feasible region of reservoirs optimal operation problems and generating initial solutions are raised. Taking mid-long term optimal operation and short-term optimal operation of cascade reservoirs as an example respectively, together with corresponding conventional optimization methods, the feasibility and superiority of proposed shuffled frog leaping algorithm in solving optimal operation problems of cascaded reservoirs are verified.
(3)Optimal operation of cascade reservoirs based on data mining has been researched. Taking optimal operation process obtained by deterministic optimal operation of cascade reservoirs as basic data, operation sample sets including time factors, space factors, energy factors and decision variables is firstly built, then rough set method is introduced to select decision variables and influence factors of monthly operation function, finally, support vector machine (SVM) is employed as fitting method of operation function, and combined the analysis of key problems in long-series operation operation simulation the application process of implicit stochastic optimization operation of cascade reservoirs based on data mining is given. Taking the operation function extracting of cascaded reservoirs located in Yangtze river middle reaches for an example, the rationality and superiority of the proposed method is validated, which provides new ideas to look for scheduling rule and extract joint scheduling rules of cascaded reservoirs.
(4)Water-sediment multi-objective optimal operation of cascaded reservoirs has been researched. Aiming at contradictions between long-term benefits and sand sedimentation reduction for cascaded reservoirs on alluvial rivers with heavy sediment load, based on one dimension model of sediment deposition calculation, multi-objective optimal operation model for water-sediment of cascaded reservoirs is firstly bulit; And considered that traditional water-sediment joint operation usually adopt loose coupling calculation method (reservoir operation and sediment deposition calculation seperately), combined with multi-objective dynamic programming iterative algorithm, the dimension reduction algorithm combined with dynamic programming successive approximation and multi-objective dynamic programming iteration algorithm is put forward and used to solve the problem of water-sediment joint operation for cascaded reservoirs, and then considered that water-sediment calculation does not meet no aftereffect of dynamic planning and its calculation need a long time, thought transformation that takes sand sediment as basic goal and electricity as constraints respectively is adopted, and the corresponding solving process is presented. Finally taking Three Gorges reservoir as an example, based on multi-objective dynamic programming iteration algorithm water-sediment non inferior solution set is obtained, so the rationality and validity of the proposed method is verified.
(5)Scheme evaluation of water-sediment multi-objective optimal operation for the reservoir has been researched. Considered that traditional TOPSIS decision-making method doesn't take the correlation between indicators into count and only adopt subjective weight, advanced TOPSIS multiple attribute decision-making method based on markov distance is introduced; Then evaluation system of water-sediment coordinative operation program for the reservoir is set up, and the calculation method of relevant indexes and the correlation between indicators are analyzed; Finally takeing scheme sorting of water sand dispatching non inferior solution set in Three Gorges reservoir for an example, evaluation schemes ranking results and the equilibrium solution are obtained, so the rationality of the proposed evaluation system model of water-sediment coordinative operation program and decision-making method is verified.
(1)水电站水库中长期组合入库径流预报方法研究。首先以自回归滑动平均模型、最近邻抽样回归模型、人工神经网络模型为基础构建了水电站水库入库径流预报模型,在相关模型参数率定之后,以相关指标验证了所建模型的合理性与可靠性；以之为基础,并结合月入库径流的周期性、年内不均匀性特征建立了基于支持向量机的月径流分月组合预报模型,继而以平均相对误差、确定性系数为评价指标搭建入库径流预报精度评价模型；以龙盘水电站水库月入库径流预报的应用效果表明组合预报模型在降低了单一预报模型不确定的同时,取得了更高的预报精度,验证了所构建模型的合理性与优越性。
(2)梯级水库群优化调度方法研究。结合混合蛙跳算法良好的全局寻优性能以及免疫克隆选择算法较好的局部搜索能力两方面的优势,提出了免疫蛙跳算法并给出了相应的求解流程；同时针对梯级水库群之间的水力、电力联系,为提高智能优化方法在求解水库群优化调度问题时的寻优效率,给出了水库群优化调度问题的可行域构建方法以及初始解生成方法。分别以梯级水库群中长期优化调度、短期优化调度为例,结合相应常规优化方法,验证了免疫蛙跳算法在求解梯级水库群优化调度问题上的可行性、优越性。
(3)基于数据挖掘的梯级水库群优化调度研究。以梯级水库群确定性优化调度最优运行过程为计算资料,首先构建了由时间因子、空间因子、能量因子、决策变量组成的运行样本集,继而选用粗糙集方法筛选出各月调度函数决策变量及影响因子,最后选用支持向量机方法为拟合调度函数,并结合调度函数长系列模拟运行中关键问题的分析给出了数据挖掘方法在梯级水库群隐随机优化调度的应用流程,以金沙江中游梯级水库调度函数提取为例验证了方法的合理性与优越性,为梯级水库群寻找调度规律、拟定联合调度规则提供了新的思路。
(4)梯级水库水沙多目标优化调度研究。针对多沙河流梯级水库长期兴利与排沙减淤之间的矛盾,以一维泥沙冲淤计算模型为基础,首先构建了梯级水库群水沙多目标优化调度模型；考虑到传统水沙联合调度问题通常采用水库调度和泥沙冲淤计算松耦合计算思路的不足,结合多目标动态规划迭代算法,提出了逐次逼近动态规划和多目标动态规划迭代算法相结合的梯级水库水沙联合调度降维求解算法；针对水沙冲淤计算不满足动态规划无后效性且计算时间较长的特点,转换求解思路,以泥沙淤积量为基本目标,发电量为约束目标,并给出了相应的求解流程。最后以三峡水库为例,给出了基于多目标动态规划迭代算法的水沙非劣解集,验证了求解方法的合理性和有效性。
(5)水库水沙多目标优化调度方案决策方法研究。针对传统TOPSIS决策方法未考虑指标间相关性以及赋权方法单一的不足,首先构建了基于马氏距离的TOPSIS多属性决策方法,并给出了主客观组合赋权方法；继而建立了水库水沙联合调度方案评价指标体系,并分析了相关指标的计算方法以及指标间的相关性；最后以三峡水库水沙调度非劣解集方案优劣排序为例,得到了待评价方案集的方案排序结果以及最优均衡解方案,实例对比验证了所建立水沙调度方案评价模型及求解方法的合理性。
Under the background of energy shortage, energy conservation and emissions reduction, strength of hydropower endevelopment in China enhances and pace speeds up, meanwhile the scale of reservoir groups gets bigger and bigger, and the joint operation problem is becoming more and more complicated. On the one hand, there are complex hydraulic and electrical connections between upstream and downstream for cascaded reservoirs(complex constraints), and as well as the influence of incoming runoff uncertainty there is certain gap between theoretical research and practical application of reservoirs optimal operation; on the other hand, with the improvement of human living standards and knowledge, the comprehensive utilization demand of large water control peojects is growing and a certain competition and conflict relationship exists in different operation goals, thus there is certain limitation to use the traditional theories and methods of reservoir optimal operation to solve problems of reservoirs optimal operation in the new period, unable to meet the requirements of comprehensive benefits for reservoirs multi-objective operation, and new theories and methods of reservoirs joint operation are necessitated in present. Around multi-objective joint operation of cascade reservoirs and and programs decision problem between different targets under the the background of rapid development of hypowerelectric energy, aiming at maximizing reservoirs long-period comprehensive benefits, combined with theory of systems engineering, intelligent optimization methods, and multi-objective optimization and decision theory, we deeply study the joint operation problem of cascade reservoir from several aspects, as mid-long term runoff forecast, single objective optimal operation, water-sediment multi-objective optimal operation and decision joint operation and a series of research results with theoretical and practical value are achieved. The main research results in this paper are listed as follows:
(1)Mid-long term inflow runoff forecast method of reservoir has been researched. Firstly autoregressive moving average model, nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive model, artificial neural network model are introduced as reservoir runoff forecast models, the related model parameters are calibrated, and the rationality and reliability of those models are verified by relevant indexes; Based on those models, combined with the cyclical and years non-uniformity characteristics of month inflow runoff, monthly combination forecast model based on support vector machine (SVM) is established, then indicators of the average relative error and determination coefficient are adopted to set up runoff forecast precision-evaluation model; Take inflow runoff forecast of Longpan hypdropower station for example, results show that combination forecast model can reduce the uncertainty of single forecast model and obtain higher forecast accuracy, thus the rationality and superiority of the proposed model are verified.
(2)Optimal operation methods of cascade reservoirs have been researched. Combined with good global optimization performance of shuffled frog leaping algorithm and good local search ability of immune clonal selection algorithm, this paper immune leapfrog algorithm is proposed in this paper and the corresponding process is given; Meanwhile for hydraulic and electrical link between cascaded reservoirs, in order to improve optimization efficiency of intelligent optimization algoriths while solving reservoirs optimal operation problems, methods of building the feasible region of reservoirs optimal operation problems and generating initial solutions are raised. Taking mid-long term optimal operation and short-term optimal operation of cascade reservoirs as an example respectively, together with corresponding conventional optimization methods, the feasibility and superiority of proposed shuffled frog leaping algorithm in solving optimal operation problems of cascaded reservoirs are verified.
(3)Optimal operation of cascade reservoirs based on data mining has been researched. Taking optimal operation process obtained by deterministic optimal operation of cascade reservoirs as basic data, operation sample sets including time factors, space factors, energy factors and decision variables is firstly built, then rough set method is introduced to select decision variables and influence factors of monthly operation function, finally, support vector machine (SVM) is employed as fitting method of operation function, and combined the analysis of key problems in long-series operation operation simulation the application process of implicit stochastic optimization operation of cascade reservoirs based on data mining is given. Taking the operation function extracting of cascaded reservoirs located in Yangtze river middle reaches for an example, the rationality and superiority of the proposed method is validated, which provides new ideas to look for scheduling rule and extract joint scheduling rules of cascaded reservoirs.
(4)Water-sediment multi-objective optimal operation of cascaded reservoirs has been researched. Aiming at contradictions between long-term benefits and sand sedimentation reduction for cascaded reservoirs on alluvial rivers with heavy sediment load, based on one dimension model of sediment deposition calculation, multi-objective optimal operation model for water-sediment of cascaded reservoirs is firstly bulit; And considered that traditional water-sediment joint operation usually adopt loose coupling calculation method (reservoir operation and sediment deposition calculation seperately), combined with multi-objective dynamic programming iterative algorithm, the dimension reduction algorithm combined with dynamic programming successive approximation and multi-objective dynamic programming iteration algorithm is put forward and used to solve the problem of water-sediment joint operation for cascaded reservoirs, and then considered that water-sediment calculation does not meet no aftereffect of dynamic planning and its calculation need a long time, thought transformation that takes sand sediment as basic goal and electricity as constraints respectively is adopted, and the corresponding solving process is presented. Finally taking Three Gorges reservoir as an example, based on multi-objective dynamic programming iteration algorithm water-sediment non inferior solution set is obtained, so the rationality and validity of the proposed method is verified.
(5)Scheme evaluation of water-sediment multi-objective optimal operation for the reservoir has been researched. Considered that traditional TOPSIS decision-making method doesn't take the correlation between indicators into count and only adopt subjective weight, advanced TOPSIS multiple attribute decision-making method based on markov distance is introduced; Then evaluation system of water-sediment coordinative operation program for the reservoir is set up, and the calculation method of relevant indexes and the correlation between indicators are analyzed; Finally takeing scheme sorting of water sand dispatching non inferior solution set in Three Gorges reservoir for an example, evaluation schemes ranking results and the equilibrium solution are obtained, so the rationality of the proposed evaluation system model of water-sediment coordinative operation program and decision-making method is verified.
引文
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