近年来雅鲁藏布江流域气候、冰川波动及河流水资源变化研究
|
摘要
本研究以气象数据(主要为气温、降水)、基础地理数据、中国冰川信息系统数据库(1：10万)、DEM数据、遥感影像数据及前人研究结果为基础,运用GIS空间插值技术、气象统计方法及R/S分析法,对雅鲁藏布江流域近30年来气候(着眼于降水和气温指标)时空变化特征及未来变化趋势进行了研究；综合运用RS、GIS技术,获取了流域不同朝向上冰川面积分布、冰川面积随高度带分布状况统计结果,定量分析了典型冰川年内季节性变化及近几十年变化状况,并结合前人研究结果统计分析了整个流域内冰川变化状况；在上述研究结果及前人研究基础上,对雅鲁藏布江流域气候变化背景下,冰川及河流水资源响应状况进行了探索分析。研究主要得出以下结论：
(1)1978—2009年间,流域范围内多年平均降水大致趋势为由西至东逐步增加,年平均降水量以7.935mm/10a的速度缓慢增加.流域多年平均气温大致由河源至下游逐渐升高,河谷腹地至流域边界处逐渐降低,并出现了以拉萨、乃东为中心的局部高温带；近32年流域年平均气温增加2.2℃,增加幅度达到0.489℃/10a(通过了99%的显著性检验),高于全球及全国增温速率。近10年间,流域平均降水以-139mm/10a的速度显著减少,气温则以1.14℃/10a的速度增加,整个流域气候呈现暖干趋势。利用R/S分析法预测得知,流域年降水量可能出现短时间的减少波动,但未来较长一段时间内,流域降水及气温仍将保持增加趋势,流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势。
(2)不同朝向上的冰川面积从大到小依次为北、东北、东、南、西北、东南、西南、西,偏北向、偏西向冰川分布高度范围分别小于偏南向、偏东向；流域内冰川分布的高度范围大约为4600m左右,最大面积高度区间为5300-5500m。以编号50258A0023的冰川为研究对象,其消融期主要集中在5、6月份至10月份左右,积累期主要集中在11月份至次年的4、5月份。1976—1988年期间,流域东部21座大型海洋性冰川出现退缩现象,总面积从1434.4km2减少到1283.4km2,退缩年平均速率为0.810%·a-1；1988—2005年,这批大型冰川呈现出相反的波动状况,总面积从1283.4km2增加到1416.5km2,冰川前进年平均速率为0.576%·a-1；但总的看来,在1976-2005年30年间,这21座大型冰川总面积减少了17.9km2,占1976年冰川总面积的1.25%,冰川呈现不显著的退缩。对本文及前人研究结果进行总结,发现近几十年流域内冰川普遍呈现退缩趋势,仅少数冰川呈现前进状态。
(3)以21座大型海洋性冰川为例,对气候变化背景下冰川的响应进行分析,得出：气温升高虽导致这些冰川的退缩,但降水的增加削弱或者抵消了气温升高带来的不利影响,这种气候变化状况可能是导致这些大型冰川在1976-2005年间前进退缩状况均不显著的主要原因。冰川面积变化受正积温、降水二者影响,三者之间有必然的响应关系,然而流域内各地域间响应关系具有一定差异性；某些冰川群对降水的敏感性高于气温。
(4)依据流域多年水量平衡的假定,雅鲁藏布江流域河川径流量受气候(气温、降水、积雪,蒸发)、冰川变化波动的影响而呈现阶段性的变化。近几十年来在气温升高、降水增加、积雪量增加、蒸发减少的大背景下下,流域河川径流量响应气候、冰川变化呈现增加趋势。
Taking the best use of meteorological data (mainly the temperature and precipitation observation data), basic geographic information, dataset of China glacier information system (1:100000), digital elevation model (DEM), remote sensing images collected in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in association with the reference of the relevant achievements obtained in the past by pioneer studies in the region, comprehensive and systematic studies concerning with spatial and temporal variation characteristics of climate (focus on rainfall and temperature index) and their future tendency over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin during the past30years were conducted by means of the GIS spatial interpolation techniques, meteorological statistics method and R/S analysis...etc. First of all, by using RS and GIS techniques, the orientational and the altitudinal distribution of glacier areas in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin were comprehensively analyzed, and the seasonal fluctuation and interannual variation of typical glaciers were quantitatively studied. In combination of the research results concerning with glacier fluctuations and glacier inventory materials, the glacier variations related to equivabrium line fluctuations, glacier area and volume changes in long term as well as the long term climatic spatial and temporal variations were studied. Based on the above research results and the previous studies, the responses of glaciers and river water resources to the climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin were systematically studied. The main conclusions obtained through this study can be summarized as follows:
(1) From1978to2009, precipitation within the watershed roughly increased from west to east, and the basin scale averaged precipitation insignificantly increased at the speed of7.935mm/10a. Annual mean temperature increased gradually from the river source area to down-streams and from the basin boundary to hinterland with an exception for a local high-temperature zone emerged over the Lhasa city and the Naidong area. In32years from1978 to2009, annual mean temperature increased about2.2℃with the increase rate of0.489℃/10a (through99%significance test), which is obviously higher than the reported global temperature increase rate as well as for whole China. Over the past10years, the basin scale averaged precipitation notably reduced with a speed of-139mm/10a, while the temperature tended to increase with a speed of1.14℃/10a, which implies the whole watershed tended to be much warm and dry in the recent decade. In addition, according to the R/S analyses, Hurst index of the32years (from1978to2009) predicted that air temperature and precipitation would increase in some period in the future, and the climate over the basin would tend to be much warm and wet.
(2) The distribution of glacier areas in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin from large to small is found orientated in order northeast, north, south, east, northwest, southeast and southwest, west. The altitudinal range in the partial north and west are respectively smaller than in the partial south and east. The altitudinal distribution of the glacier in the basin is about4600m, and the altitudinal interval between5300and5500m has the biggest glacier area developed. Taking No.5O258A0023glacier as a typical example, the glacier ablation period mainly concentrated from May、June to October while the accumulated phase mainly taken place from November to next year's April、May. From1976to1988,21large maritime glaciers in the eastern river basin retreated, and the total glacier areas shrunk from1434.4km2to1283.4km2, with the annual diminution rate of0.810%. But from1988to2005, this group of large glaciers exhibited the reverse fluctuation trend with glacier areas increased from1283.4km2to1416.5km2in total at the annual rise rate of0.810%. On the whole, however, from1976to2005, the area of21large maritime glaciers reduced17.9km2, accounting for1.25%of the total area of glaciers in1976, so glacier appeared no significant retreat. Summarizing the results of previous studies and my research results, we can find out that most glaciers in the basin tended to slight retreat in general.
(3) Taking21maritime glaciers as example, of climate change, the response of glaciers to climate change was analyzed. The conclusion is as following. Though the increasing temperature over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin tended to result in these glaciers retreat in general, but the increase of precipitation over the same period weaken or even offset the negative influence of the rising temperature. Increasing temperature plus increasing precipitation may be the main reason accounts for the glacier changes in the studied basin exhibited non-significant progress or retreat from1976to2005. Glacier change is influenced by accumulative temperature, precipitation, and there is inevitable response relationship among these three factors, which is found different in diverse regions. Some glaciers have been found changed more sensitive to the precipitation than to temperature.
(4) According to the water balance equation of the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, its river runoff is affected by climate (temperature, precipitation, snow, and evaporation) and glacier change. For decades in the background of the rising temperature, the increasing precipitation and snow and decreasing evaporation over the basin, river runoff presented the increasing trend to response the climate and glacier changes.
(1)1978—2009年间,流域范围内多年平均降水大致趋势为由西至东逐步增加,年平均降水量以7.935mm/10a的速度缓慢增加.流域多年平均气温大致由河源至下游逐渐升高,河谷腹地至流域边界处逐渐降低,并出现了以拉萨、乃东为中心的局部高温带；近32年流域年平均气温增加2.2℃,增加幅度达到0.489℃/10a(通过了99%的显著性检验),高于全球及全国增温速率。近10年间,流域平均降水以-139mm/10a的速度显著减少,气温则以1.14℃/10a的速度增加,整个流域气候呈现暖干趋势。利用R/S分析法预测得知,流域年降水量可能出现短时间的减少波动,但未来较长一段时间内,流域降水及气温仍将保持增加趋势,流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势。
(2)不同朝向上的冰川面积从大到小依次为北、东北、东、南、西北、东南、西南、西,偏北向、偏西向冰川分布高度范围分别小于偏南向、偏东向；流域内冰川分布的高度范围大约为4600m左右,最大面积高度区间为5300-5500m。以编号50258A0023的冰川为研究对象,其消融期主要集中在5、6月份至10月份左右,积累期主要集中在11月份至次年的4、5月份。1976—1988年期间,流域东部21座大型海洋性冰川出现退缩现象,总面积从1434.4km2减少到1283.4km2,退缩年平均速率为0.810%·a-1；1988—2005年,这批大型冰川呈现出相反的波动状况,总面积从1283.4km2增加到1416.5km2,冰川前进年平均速率为0.576%·a-1；但总的看来,在1976-2005年30年间,这21座大型冰川总面积减少了17.9km2,占1976年冰川总面积的1.25%,冰川呈现不显著的退缩。对本文及前人研究结果进行总结,发现近几十年流域内冰川普遍呈现退缩趋势,仅少数冰川呈现前进状态。
(3)以21座大型海洋性冰川为例,对气候变化背景下冰川的响应进行分析,得出：气温升高虽导致这些冰川的退缩,但降水的增加削弱或者抵消了气温升高带来的不利影响,这种气候变化状况可能是导致这些大型冰川在1976-2005年间前进退缩状况均不显著的主要原因。冰川面积变化受正积温、降水二者影响,三者之间有必然的响应关系,然而流域内各地域间响应关系具有一定差异性；某些冰川群对降水的敏感性高于气温。
(4)依据流域多年水量平衡的假定,雅鲁藏布江流域河川径流量受气候(气温、降水、积雪,蒸发)、冰川变化波动的影响而呈现阶段性的变化。近几十年来在气温升高、降水增加、积雪量增加、蒸发减少的大背景下下,流域河川径流量响应气候、冰川变化呈现增加趋势。
Taking the best use of meteorological data (mainly the temperature and precipitation observation data), basic geographic information, dataset of China glacier information system (1:100000), digital elevation model (DEM), remote sensing images collected in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in association with the reference of the relevant achievements obtained in the past by pioneer studies in the region, comprehensive and systematic studies concerning with spatial and temporal variation characteristics of climate (focus on rainfall and temperature index) and their future tendency over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin during the past30years were conducted by means of the GIS spatial interpolation techniques, meteorological statistics method and R/S analysis...etc. First of all, by using RS and GIS techniques, the orientational and the altitudinal distribution of glacier areas in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin were comprehensively analyzed, and the seasonal fluctuation and interannual variation of typical glaciers were quantitatively studied. In combination of the research results concerning with glacier fluctuations and glacier inventory materials, the glacier variations related to equivabrium line fluctuations, glacier area and volume changes in long term as well as the long term climatic spatial and temporal variations were studied. Based on the above research results and the previous studies, the responses of glaciers and river water resources to the climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin were systematically studied. The main conclusions obtained through this study can be summarized as follows:
(1) From1978to2009, precipitation within the watershed roughly increased from west to east, and the basin scale averaged precipitation insignificantly increased at the speed of7.935mm/10a. Annual mean temperature increased gradually from the river source area to down-streams and from the basin boundary to hinterland with an exception for a local high-temperature zone emerged over the Lhasa city and the Naidong area. In32years from1978 to2009, annual mean temperature increased about2.2℃with the increase rate of0.489℃/10a (through99%significance test), which is obviously higher than the reported global temperature increase rate as well as for whole China. Over the past10years, the basin scale averaged precipitation notably reduced with a speed of-139mm/10a, while the temperature tended to increase with a speed of1.14℃/10a, which implies the whole watershed tended to be much warm and dry in the recent decade. In addition, according to the R/S analyses, Hurst index of the32years (from1978to2009) predicted that air temperature and precipitation would increase in some period in the future, and the climate over the basin would tend to be much warm and wet.
(2) The distribution of glacier areas in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin from large to small is found orientated in order northeast, north, south, east, northwest, southeast and southwest, west. The altitudinal range in the partial north and west are respectively smaller than in the partial south and east. The altitudinal distribution of the glacier in the basin is about4600m, and the altitudinal interval between5300and5500m has the biggest glacier area developed. Taking No.5O258A0023glacier as a typical example, the glacier ablation period mainly concentrated from May、June to October while the accumulated phase mainly taken place from November to next year's April、May. From1976to1988,21large maritime glaciers in the eastern river basin retreated, and the total glacier areas shrunk from1434.4km2to1283.4km2, with the annual diminution rate of0.810%. But from1988to2005, this group of large glaciers exhibited the reverse fluctuation trend with glacier areas increased from1283.4km2to1416.5km2in total at the annual rise rate of0.810%. On the whole, however, from1976to2005, the area of21large maritime glaciers reduced17.9km2, accounting for1.25%of the total area of glaciers in1976, so glacier appeared no significant retreat. Summarizing the results of previous studies and my research results, we can find out that most glaciers in the basin tended to slight retreat in general.
(3) Taking21maritime glaciers as example, of climate change, the response of glaciers to climate change was analyzed. The conclusion is as following. Though the increasing temperature over the Yarlung Zangbo river basin tended to result in these glaciers retreat in general, but the increase of precipitation over the same period weaken or even offset the negative influence of the rising temperature. Increasing temperature plus increasing precipitation may be the main reason accounts for the glacier changes in the studied basin exhibited non-significant progress or retreat from1976to2005. Glacier change is influenced by accumulative temperature, precipitation, and there is inevitable response relationship among these three factors, which is found different in diverse regions. Some glaciers have been found changed more sensitive to the precipitation than to temperature.
(4) According to the water balance equation of the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, its river runoff is affected by climate (temperature, precipitation, snow, and evaporation) and glacier change. For decades in the background of the rising temperature, the increasing precipitation and snow and decreasing evaporation over the basin, river runoff presented the increasing trend to response the climate and glacier changes.
引文
[I]H. D Y, Z. G Q. Atmosphere, ocean, human activity and global warming [J]. Meteorology Monthly.1998,24(3):12-17.
[2]郝振纯,李丽,王加虎,等.气候变化对地表水资源的影响[J].地球科学——中国地质大学学报.2007,32(3)：425-432.
[3]秦大河,效存德,丁永健,等.国际冰冻圈研究动态和我国冰冻圈研究的现状与展望[J].应用气象学报.2006,17(6)：648-656.
[4]秦大河,丁永健.冰冻圈变化及其影响研究——现状、趋势及关键问题[J].气候变化研究.2009,5(4)：187-195.
[5]杨针娘,曾群柱.冰川水文学[Z].重庆：重庆出版社,20011-40.
[6]马建华.现代自然地理学[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,2002：448-459.
[7]刘桂芳,卢鹤立.全球变暖背景下的中国西部地区气候变化研究进展[J].气象与环境科学.2009,32(4)：69-73.
[8]刘时银,丁永健,李晶,等.中国西部冰川对近期气候变暖的响应[J].第四季研究.2006,26(5)：762-771.
[9]姚檀栋,刘时银,蒲健辰,等.高亚洲冰川的近期退缩及其对西北水资源的影响[J].中国科学D辑.2004,34(6)：535-543.
[10]孙成权,高峰,曲建全.全球气候变化的新认识-IPCC第三次气候变化评价报告概览[J].自然杂志.2002,24(2)：114-122.
[11]S S, H Q D, M M, et al. Climate change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Inter-governmental panel on climate change[R]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[12]任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,等.近54年中国地面气温变化[J].气候与环境研究.2005,10(4)：717-727.
[13]谭春萍,杨建平,米睿.1971-2007年青藏高原南部气候变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土.2010,32(6)：1111-1120.
[14]Dong Y T, Xuejun G, L T, et al.18 O record and temperature change over the past 100 years in ice core on the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Science in China, Series D Earth Sciences.2006,49(1):1-9.
[15]李林,陈晓光,王振宁,等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展.2010,6(3)：181-186.
[16]康兴成.青藏高原地区近40年来气候变化的特征[J].冰川冻土.1996,18(S1)：281-288.
[17]Qinglong Y, Shichang K, Yanhong W, et al. Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin during 1961-2005[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences.2007:409-420.
[18]边多,杜军.近40年西藏“一江两河”流域气候变化特征[J].应用气象学报.2006,17(2)：169-175.
[19]纪鹏.西昆仑山冰川演变遥感动态分析与研究[D].北京：中国科学院研究生院,2011.
[20]Lemke P, Ren J. Observations changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis[C].
[21]段建平,王丽丽,任贾文,等.近百年来中国冰川变化及其对气候变化的敏感性研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2009,28(2)：231-237.
[22]B D M, F M M. Glaciers and the changing earth system:a 2004 snapshot [M]. Colorado: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,2005:118.
[23]张国梁,王杰,潘保田.冰川变化遥感监测的研究进展[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版).2010,46(6)：1-10.
[24]井哲帆,周在明,刘力.中国冰川运动速度研究进展[J].冰川冻土.2010,32(4)：749-754.
[25]辛晓东,姚檀栋,叶庆华,等.1980-2005年藏东南然乌湖流域冰川湖泊变化研究[J].冰川冻土.2009,31(1)：19-26.
[26]李震,孙文新,曾群柱.综合RS与GIS方法提取青藏高原冰川变化信息-以布喀塔格峰为例[J].地理学报.1999,54(3)：263-268.
[27]聂勇,张镱锂,刘林山,等.近30年珠穆朗玛峰国家自然保护区冰川变化的遥感监测[J].地理学报.2010,65(1)：13-28.
[28]Li Z, Sun W, Zeng Q. Measurements of Glacier Variation in the Tibetan Plateau Using Landsat Data [J]. Remote Sensing Of Environment.1998,63(3):258-264.
[29]刘晓尘,效存德.1974-2010年雅鲁藏布江源头杰玛央宗冰川及冰湖变化初步研究[J].冰川冻土.2011,33(3)：488-496.
[30]刘时银,鲁安新,丁永建,等.黄河上游阿尼玛卿山区冰川波动与气候变化[J].冰川冻士.2002,24(6)：701-707.
[31]王利平,谢自楚,刘时银,等.1970-2000年羌塘高原冰川变化及其预测研究[J].冰川冻土.2011,33(5)：979-990.
[32]晋锐,车涛,李新,等.基于遥感和GIS的西藏朋曲流域冰川变化研究[J].冰川冻土.2004,26(3)：261-266.
[33]蔡迪花,马金辉,年雁云,等.慕士塔格峰冰川变化遥感研究[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版).2006,42(1)：13-17.
[34]鲁安新,王丽红,姚檀栋.青藏高原湖泊现代变化遥感方法研究[J].遥感技术与应用.2006,21(3)：173-177.
[35]李治国,姚檀栋,叶庆华,等.西藏年楚河满拉水库上游冰川变化及其影响[J].冰川冻土.2010,32(4)：650-658.
[36]李丽娟,郑红星.华北典型河流年径流演变规律及其驱动力分析——以潮白河为例[J].地理学报.2000,55(3)：309-317.
[37]刘琳,刘雪华,康相武.黄河北干流径流变化规律及其与气候的关系研究[J].环境科学与技术.2011,34(3)：109-115.
[38]夏军,刘春蓁,任国玉.气候变化对我国水资源影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J].地球科学进展.2011,26(1)：1-12.
[39]王顺久.全球气候变化对水文与水资源的影响[J].气候变化研究进展.2006,2(5)：223-227.
[40]於凡,曹颖.全球气候变化对区域水资源影响研究进展综述[J].水资源与水工程学报.2008,19(4)：92-97.
[41]Gleick P H. Climate change, hydrology and water resource [J]. Reviews of Geophysics.1989, 27(3):329-344.
[42]Ipcc I P O C. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation [M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1994.
[43]Ipcc I P O C. Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1996:478.
[44]刘春蓁.气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题[J].地球科学进展.2004,19(1)：115-119.
[45]陈宜瑜,丁永建,佘之祥,等.中国气候与环境演变(下卷)[M].北京：科学出版社,2005：397.
[46]芮孝芳.水文学原理[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2004：386.
[47]张建云,章四龙,王金星,等.近50年来中国六大流域年际径流变化趋势研究[J].水科学进展.2007,18(2)：230-234.
[48]叶佰生,丁永建,康尔泗,等.近40a来新疆地区冰雪径流对气候变暖的响应[J].中国科学(D辑：地球科学).
[49]马玉梅.气候影响下以融雪水补给为主的河川径流变化[J].沙漠与绿洲气象.2008,2(1)：32-34.
[50]刘时银,丁永建,张勇,等.塔里木河流域冰川变化及其对水资源影响[J].地理学报.2006(05).
[51]汤世珍.天山四棵树河冰川径流变化特征及其对河流径流的可能影响[J].冰川冻土2009(04).
[52]高鑫,叶柏生,张世强,等.1961-2006年塔里木河流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响[J].中国科学：地球科学.2010(05).
[53]李治国,姚檀栋,田立德.国内外冰川变化对水资源影响研究进展[J].自然资源学报.2008,23(1)：1-8.
[54]秦大河,陈宜瑜,李学勇.中国气候与环境演变(上卷)——气候与环境的演变及预测[M].北京：科学出版社,2005：109-110.
[55]徐华鑫.西藏自治区地理[M].拉萨：西藏人民出版社,1992.
[56]中国科学院青藏高原综合考察队.西藏河流与湖泊[M].北京：1984：238.
[57]朱思蓉,吴华意ArcHydro水文数据模型[J].测绘与空间地理信息.2006,29(5)：87-90.
[58]谢自楚,冯清华.雅鲁藏布江水系冰川分布特征及其利用前景[M].西安：西安地图出版社,2002：3-47.
[59]喻菲.中国科学家确定雅鲁藏布江等4条国际河流源头[Z].2011.
[60]白虎志,马振锋,董文杰,等.西藏高原沙尘暴气候特征及成因研究[J].中国沙漠.2006(02).
[61]贾建伟,吕孙云,王政祥.雅鲁藏布江流域水资源量特性分析[J].人民长江.2008,39(17)：71-72.
[62]刘剑,姚治君,陈传友.雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势及原因分析[J].自然资源学报.2007,22(3)：471-477.
[63]刘天仇.雅鲁藏布江水文特征[J].地理学报.1999,54(增刊(Supplement)):157-164.
[64]李吉均,郑本兴,杨锡金,等.西藏冰川[M].北京：科学出版社,1986：328.
[65]杨松.西藏的生态环境与可持续发展战略[J].中国藏学.2004(03).
[66]李景刚,黄诗峰,李纪人,等.1960—2008年间洞庭湖流域降水变化时空特征分析[J].中国水利水电科学科学研究院学报.2010,8(4)：275-280.
[67]杜军,胡军,唐述军,等.西藏羊卓雍措湖流域近45年气温和降水的变化趋势[J].地理学报.2008,63(11)：1160-1168.
[68]李新,程国栋,卢玲.青藏高原气温分布的空间插值方法比较[J].高原气象.2003,22(6)：565-573.
[69]朱求安,张万昌,余钧辉.基于GIS的空间插值方法研究[J].江西师范大学学报：自然科学版.2004,28(2)：183-188.
[70]邓晓斌.基于ArcGIS两种空间插值方法的比较[J].地理空间信息.2008,6(6)：85-87.
[71]林忠辉,莫兴国,李宏轩,等.中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值[J].地理学报.2002,57(1)：47-56.
[72]马宏伟,王乃昂,李卓伦.近50年石羊河流域气候变化的R/S分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版).2010,46(4)：42-45.
[73]凌红波,徐海量,张青青,等.1956—2007年新疆玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势分析[J].冰川冻土.2011,33(1)：64-71.
[74]黄勇,周志芳,王锦国,等.R/S分析法在地下水动态分析中的应用[J].河海大学学报.2002,30(1)：83-87.
[75]Xuchao Y, Yili Z, Wei Z, et al. Climate change in Mt.Qomolangma region since 1971 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences.2008,16(3):326-336.
[76]姚檀栋,李治国,杨威,等.雅鲁藏布江流域冰川分布和物质平衡特征及其对湖泊的影响[J].科学通报.2010,55(18)：1750-1756.
[77]Cruz R V, Harasawa H, Lal M, et al. Asian, in climate change 2007:Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In:Parry M L, Canziani O F,Palutikof J P, et al, eds. [R] Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:469-506.
[78]王高峰,张廷斌,张建平,等.遥感影像的冰川信息提取方法对比[J].地理空间信息.2010,8(3)：43-46.
[79]宋波,何元庆,庞洪喜,等.基于遥感和GIS的我国季风海洋型冰川区冰碛物覆盖型冰川边界的自动识别[J].冰川冻土.2007,29(3)：456-462.
[80]张明华.基于ETM+影像的西藏南迦巴瓦峰地区海洋性冰川信息提取[J].冰川冻土.2005,27(2)：226-232.
[81]F P, C H, A. K. Combining satellite multispectral image data and a digital elevation model for mapping debris-covered glaciers [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment.2004,8(9):510-518.
[82]鲁安新,姚檀栋,刘时银,等.青藏高原各拉丹冬地区冰川变化的遥感监测[J].冰川冻土.2002,24(5)：559-562.
[83]杜建括.基于遥感与实测的玉龙雪山冰川变化[D].兰州大学,2011.
[84]谢自楚,刘宗香,等.天山冰川物质平衡特征和成冰作用[M].北京：科学出版社,1998：98-117.
[85]刘时银,上官东辉,丁永建,等.20世纪初以来青藏高原东南部岗目嘎布山的冰川变化[J].冰川冻土.2005,27(1)：55-63.
[86]王宁练,贺建桥,蒲健辰,等.近50年来祁连山七一冰川平衡线高度变化研究[J].科学通报.2010,55(32)：3107-3115.
[87]邓育武,谢自楚,秦建新,等.恒河-雅鲁藏布江流域雪线场的建立及其环境意义[J].冰川冻土.2006,28(6)：865-872.
[88]杨威,姚檀栋,徐柏青,等.青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布地区冰川严重损耗与退缩[J].科学通报.2008,53(17)：2091-2095.
[89]Oerlemans J. Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records [J]. Science.2005,308: 675-677.
[90]Diolaiuti G A, Maragno D, D'Agata C, et al. Glacier retreat and climate change: Documenting the last 50 years of Alpine glacier history from area and geometry changes of Dosde'Piazzi glaciers (Lombardy Alps, Italy)[J]. Progress in Physical Geography.2011,35(2): 161-182.
[91]姚檀栋,上田丰,大畑哲夫,等.1989年中日青藏高原冰川联合考察研究[J].冰川冻土. 1991,13(1)：1-8.
[92]洛珠尼玛,王建群,徐幸仪.雅鲁藏布江流域径流变化特征及趋势分析[J].水文.2011,31(5)：76-79.
[93]丁永建,叶柏生,韩添丁,等.过去50年中国西部气候和径流变化的区域差异[J].中国科学D辑：地球科学.2007,37(2)：206-214.
[94]钱晓燕,袁鹏,邵骏,等.雅鲁藏布江河川径流变化的季节性规律研究[J].水资源与水工程学报.2010,21(1)：29-33.
[95]李占玲,徐宗学,巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江流域径流特性变化分析[J].地理研究.2008,27(2)：353-361.
[96]戴声佩,张勃,程峰,等.基于被动微波遥感反演雪深的时间序列分析我国积雪时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土.2010(06).
[2]郝振纯,李丽,王加虎,等.气候变化对地表水资源的影响[J].地球科学——中国地质大学学报.2007,32(3)：425-432.
[3]秦大河,效存德,丁永健,等.国际冰冻圈研究动态和我国冰冻圈研究的现状与展望[J].应用气象学报.2006,17(6)：648-656.
[4]秦大河,丁永健.冰冻圈变化及其影响研究——现状、趋势及关键问题[J].气候变化研究.2009,5(4)：187-195.
[5]杨针娘,曾群柱.冰川水文学[Z].重庆：重庆出版社,20011-40.
[6]马建华.现代自然地理学[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,2002：448-459.
[7]刘桂芳,卢鹤立.全球变暖背景下的中国西部地区气候变化研究进展[J].气象与环境科学.2009,32(4)：69-73.
[8]刘时银,丁永健,李晶,等.中国西部冰川对近期气候变暖的响应[J].第四季研究.2006,26(5)：762-771.
[9]姚檀栋,刘时银,蒲健辰,等.高亚洲冰川的近期退缩及其对西北水资源的影响[J].中国科学D辑.2004,34(6)：535-543.
[10]孙成权,高峰,曲建全.全球气候变化的新认识-IPCC第三次气候变化评价报告概览[J].自然杂志.2002,24(2)：114-122.
[11]S S, H Q D, M M, et al. Climate change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Inter-governmental panel on climate change[R]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[12]任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,等.近54年中国地面气温变化[J].气候与环境研究.2005,10(4)：717-727.
[13]谭春萍,杨建平,米睿.1971-2007年青藏高原南部气候变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土.2010,32(6)：1111-1120.
[14]Dong Y T, Xuejun G, L T, et al.18 O record and temperature change over the past 100 years in ice core on the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Science in China, Series D Earth Sciences.2006,49(1):1-9.
[15]李林,陈晓光,王振宁,等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展.2010,6(3)：181-186.
[16]康兴成.青藏高原地区近40年来气候变化的特征[J].冰川冻土.1996,18(S1)：281-288.
[17]Qinglong Y, Shichang K, Yanhong W, et al. Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin during 1961-2005[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences.2007:409-420.
[18]边多,杜军.近40年西藏“一江两河”流域气候变化特征[J].应用气象学报.2006,17(2)：169-175.
[19]纪鹏.西昆仑山冰川演变遥感动态分析与研究[D].北京：中国科学院研究生院,2011.
[20]Lemke P, Ren J. Observations changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis[C].
[21]段建平,王丽丽,任贾文,等.近百年来中国冰川变化及其对气候变化的敏感性研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2009,28(2)：231-237.
[22]B D M, F M M. Glaciers and the changing earth system:a 2004 snapshot [M]. Colorado: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,2005:118.
[23]张国梁,王杰,潘保田.冰川变化遥感监测的研究进展[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版).2010,46(6)：1-10.
[24]井哲帆,周在明,刘力.中国冰川运动速度研究进展[J].冰川冻土.2010,32(4)：749-754.
[25]辛晓东,姚檀栋,叶庆华,等.1980-2005年藏东南然乌湖流域冰川湖泊变化研究[J].冰川冻土.2009,31(1)：19-26.
[26]李震,孙文新,曾群柱.综合RS与GIS方法提取青藏高原冰川变化信息-以布喀塔格峰为例[J].地理学报.1999,54(3)：263-268.
[27]聂勇,张镱锂,刘林山,等.近30年珠穆朗玛峰国家自然保护区冰川变化的遥感监测[J].地理学报.2010,65(1)：13-28.
[28]Li Z, Sun W, Zeng Q. Measurements of Glacier Variation in the Tibetan Plateau Using Landsat Data [J]. Remote Sensing Of Environment.1998,63(3):258-264.
[29]刘晓尘,效存德.1974-2010年雅鲁藏布江源头杰玛央宗冰川及冰湖变化初步研究[J].冰川冻土.2011,33(3)：488-496.
[30]刘时银,鲁安新,丁永建,等.黄河上游阿尼玛卿山区冰川波动与气候变化[J].冰川冻士.2002,24(6)：701-707.
[31]王利平,谢自楚,刘时银,等.1970-2000年羌塘高原冰川变化及其预测研究[J].冰川冻土.2011,33(5)：979-990.
[32]晋锐,车涛,李新,等.基于遥感和GIS的西藏朋曲流域冰川变化研究[J].冰川冻土.2004,26(3)：261-266.
[33]蔡迪花,马金辉,年雁云,等.慕士塔格峰冰川变化遥感研究[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版).2006,42(1)：13-17.
[34]鲁安新,王丽红,姚檀栋.青藏高原湖泊现代变化遥感方法研究[J].遥感技术与应用.2006,21(3)：173-177.
[35]李治国,姚檀栋,叶庆华,等.西藏年楚河满拉水库上游冰川变化及其影响[J].冰川冻土.2010,32(4)：650-658.
[36]李丽娟,郑红星.华北典型河流年径流演变规律及其驱动力分析——以潮白河为例[J].地理学报.2000,55(3)：309-317.
[37]刘琳,刘雪华,康相武.黄河北干流径流变化规律及其与气候的关系研究[J].环境科学与技术.2011,34(3)：109-115.
[38]夏军,刘春蓁,任国玉.气候变化对我国水资源影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J].地球科学进展.2011,26(1)：1-12.
[39]王顺久.全球气候变化对水文与水资源的影响[J].气候变化研究进展.2006,2(5)：223-227.
[40]於凡,曹颖.全球气候变化对区域水资源影响研究进展综述[J].水资源与水工程学报.2008,19(4)：92-97.
[41]Gleick P H. Climate change, hydrology and water resource [J]. Reviews of Geophysics.1989, 27(3):329-344.
[42]Ipcc I P O C. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation [M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1994.
[43]Ipcc I P O C. Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1996:478.
[44]刘春蓁.气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题[J].地球科学进展.2004,19(1)：115-119.
[45]陈宜瑜,丁永建,佘之祥,等.中国气候与环境演变(下卷)[M].北京：科学出版社,2005：397.
[46]芮孝芳.水文学原理[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2004：386.
[47]张建云,章四龙,王金星,等.近50年来中国六大流域年际径流变化趋势研究[J].水科学进展.2007,18(2)：230-234.
[48]叶佰生,丁永建,康尔泗,等.近40a来新疆地区冰雪径流对气候变暖的响应[J].中国科学(D辑：地球科学).
[49]马玉梅.气候影响下以融雪水补给为主的河川径流变化[J].沙漠与绿洲气象.2008,2(1)：32-34.
[50]刘时银,丁永建,张勇,等.塔里木河流域冰川变化及其对水资源影响[J].地理学报.2006(05).
[51]汤世珍.天山四棵树河冰川径流变化特征及其对河流径流的可能影响[J].冰川冻土2009(04).
[52]高鑫,叶柏生,张世强,等.1961-2006年塔里木河流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响[J].中国科学：地球科学.2010(05).
[53]李治国,姚檀栋,田立德.国内外冰川变化对水资源影响研究进展[J].自然资源学报.2008,23(1)：1-8.
[54]秦大河,陈宜瑜,李学勇.中国气候与环境演变(上卷)——气候与环境的演变及预测[M].北京：科学出版社,2005：109-110.
[55]徐华鑫.西藏自治区地理[M].拉萨：西藏人民出版社,1992.
[56]中国科学院青藏高原综合考察队.西藏河流与湖泊[M].北京：1984：238.
[57]朱思蓉,吴华意ArcHydro水文数据模型[J].测绘与空间地理信息.2006,29(5)：87-90.
[58]谢自楚,冯清华.雅鲁藏布江水系冰川分布特征及其利用前景[M].西安：西安地图出版社,2002：3-47.
[59]喻菲.中国科学家确定雅鲁藏布江等4条国际河流源头[Z].2011.
[60]白虎志,马振锋,董文杰,等.西藏高原沙尘暴气候特征及成因研究[J].中国沙漠.2006(02).
[61]贾建伟,吕孙云,王政祥.雅鲁藏布江流域水资源量特性分析[J].人民长江.2008,39(17)：71-72.
[62]刘剑,姚治君,陈传友.雅鲁藏布江径流变化趋势及原因分析[J].自然资源学报.2007,22(3)：471-477.
[63]刘天仇.雅鲁藏布江水文特征[J].地理学报.1999,54(增刊(Supplement)):157-164.
[64]李吉均,郑本兴,杨锡金,等.西藏冰川[M].北京：科学出版社,1986：328.
[65]杨松.西藏的生态环境与可持续发展战略[J].中国藏学.2004(03).
[66]李景刚,黄诗峰,李纪人,等.1960—2008年间洞庭湖流域降水变化时空特征分析[J].中国水利水电科学科学研究院学报.2010,8(4)：275-280.
[67]杜军,胡军,唐述军,等.西藏羊卓雍措湖流域近45年气温和降水的变化趋势[J].地理学报.2008,63(11)：1160-1168.
[68]李新,程国栋,卢玲.青藏高原气温分布的空间插值方法比较[J].高原气象.2003,22(6)：565-573.
[69]朱求安,张万昌,余钧辉.基于GIS的空间插值方法研究[J].江西师范大学学报：自然科学版.2004,28(2)：183-188.
[70]邓晓斌.基于ArcGIS两种空间插值方法的比较[J].地理空间信息.2008,6(6)：85-87.
[71]林忠辉,莫兴国,李宏轩,等.中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值[J].地理学报.2002,57(1)：47-56.
[72]马宏伟,王乃昂,李卓伦.近50年石羊河流域气候变化的R/S分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版).2010,46(4)：42-45.
[73]凌红波,徐海量,张青青,等.1956—2007年新疆玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势分析[J].冰川冻土.2011,33(1)：64-71.
[74]黄勇,周志芳,王锦国,等.R/S分析法在地下水动态分析中的应用[J].河海大学学报.2002,30(1)：83-87.
[75]Xuchao Y, Yili Z, Wei Z, et al. Climate change in Mt.Qomolangma region since 1971 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences.2008,16(3):326-336.
[76]姚檀栋,李治国,杨威,等.雅鲁藏布江流域冰川分布和物质平衡特征及其对湖泊的影响[J].科学通报.2010,55(18)：1750-1756.
[77]Cruz R V, Harasawa H, Lal M, et al. Asian, in climate change 2007:Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In:Parry M L, Canziani O F,Palutikof J P, et al, eds. [R] Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:469-506.
[78]王高峰,张廷斌,张建平,等.遥感影像的冰川信息提取方法对比[J].地理空间信息.2010,8(3)：43-46.
[79]宋波,何元庆,庞洪喜,等.基于遥感和GIS的我国季风海洋型冰川区冰碛物覆盖型冰川边界的自动识别[J].冰川冻土.2007,29(3)：456-462.
[80]张明华.基于ETM+影像的西藏南迦巴瓦峰地区海洋性冰川信息提取[J].冰川冻土.2005,27(2)：226-232.
[81]F P, C H, A. K. Combining satellite multispectral image data and a digital elevation model for mapping debris-covered glaciers [J]. Remote Sensing of Environment.2004,8(9):510-518.
[82]鲁安新,姚檀栋,刘时银,等.青藏高原各拉丹冬地区冰川变化的遥感监测[J].冰川冻土.2002,24(5)：559-562.
[83]杜建括.基于遥感与实测的玉龙雪山冰川变化[D].兰州大学,2011.
[84]谢自楚,刘宗香,等.天山冰川物质平衡特征和成冰作用[M].北京：科学出版社,1998：98-117.
[85]刘时银,上官东辉,丁永建,等.20世纪初以来青藏高原东南部岗目嘎布山的冰川变化[J].冰川冻土.2005,27(1)：55-63.
[86]王宁练,贺建桥,蒲健辰,等.近50年来祁连山七一冰川平衡线高度变化研究[J].科学通报.2010,55(32)：3107-3115.
[87]邓育武,谢自楚,秦建新,等.恒河-雅鲁藏布江流域雪线场的建立及其环境意义[J].冰川冻土.2006,28(6)：865-872.
[88]杨威,姚檀栋,徐柏青,等.青藏高原东南部岗日嘎布地区冰川严重损耗与退缩[J].科学通报.2008,53(17)：2091-2095.
[89]Oerlemans J. Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records [J]. Science.2005,308: 675-677.
[90]Diolaiuti G A, Maragno D, D'Agata C, et al. Glacier retreat and climate change: Documenting the last 50 years of Alpine glacier history from area and geometry changes of Dosde'Piazzi glaciers (Lombardy Alps, Italy)[J]. Progress in Physical Geography.2011,35(2): 161-182.
[91]姚檀栋,上田丰,大畑哲夫,等.1989年中日青藏高原冰川联合考察研究[J].冰川冻土. 1991,13(1)：1-8.
[92]洛珠尼玛,王建群,徐幸仪.雅鲁藏布江流域径流变化特征及趋势分析[J].水文.2011,31(5)：76-79.
[93]丁永建,叶柏生,韩添丁,等.过去50年中国西部气候和径流变化的区域差异[J].中国科学D辑：地球科学.2007,37(2)：206-214.
[94]钱晓燕,袁鹏,邵骏,等.雅鲁藏布江河川径流变化的季节性规律研究[J].水资源与水工程学报.2010,21(1)：29-33.
[95]李占玲,徐宗学,巩同梁.雅鲁藏布江流域径流特性变化分析[J].地理研究.2008,27(2)：353-361.
[96]戴声佩,张勃,程峰,等.基于被动微波遥感反演雪深的时间序列分析我国积雪时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土.2010(06).