管理者过度自信、财务决策行为与上市公司业绩关系研究
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摘要
管理者过度自信与非理性财务决策行为是当前公司财务学研究中的重要话题。有些优秀的企业由于管理者的过度自信做出了非理性的财务决策行为,从而导致了企业陷入困境,如四川长虹、三九集团和顺驰中国等。另一方面,更多企业的管理者对自身能力和企业实力保持着清醒的判断(即适度自信),依循情势做出了理性的财务决策行为,而正是这些正确的决策推动着企业一直高速成长着,如万向集团、华为科技、格力电器、美的集团等。现实中这些企业成败的鲜活案例具有重要的理论启示和实践指导价值,引起了人们的广泛关注与讨论。然而,30多年来,行为公司财务学文献大多集中在讨论投资者的非理性决策行为,对管理者非理性决策的行为公司财务研究则相对较少。事实上,作为一门新兴的研究课题,以国内企业作为研究样本的有关管理者过度自信与公司财务决策行为的实证研究少之又少。
基于此,本文透过典型案例的比较分析,结合文献与理论演绎,指出了当前值得深入研究和证实的几个核心命题：(1)管理者过度自信对公司财务决策行为有何影响?依循财务决策行为影响公司绩效的思路,管理者非过度自信的公司和管理者过度自信的公司绩效是否存在显著的差异?(2)董事长过度自信和高层管理团队过度自信对公司财务决策和公司绩效的影响是否存在差异?(3)如何界定和衡量管理者过度自信?(4)不同地域文化、性别、学历、年龄等背景特征的管理者的过度自信水平是否不一样?
按照上述命题,本文系统地梳理了有关管理者背景特征、管理者过度自信、公司财务决策行为与上市公司业绩的理论与文献,并结合中国文化情境与管理实践,就这些变量之间的内在联系进行了演绎分析,提出了本研究的假设和理论模型。然后,利用2005-2008年中国上市公司的经验数据对研究假设和理论模型进行了实证检验,得出了如下研究结论：
(1)董事长的文化背景和年龄特征对其是否过度自信具有显著的影响
通过实证研究发现,与籍贯为内陆地区的董事长相比,籍贯为沿海地区的董事长更容易表现出过度自信。从而说明,与内陆文化相比,海洋文化的熏陶能够使公司管理者更容易表现出过度自信。此外,董事长年龄越大,其越不容易表现出过度自信。这说明,年龄越大的公司管理者越能对自身能力与公司决策形成客观、正确的认知,因此,越不容易表现出过度自信。
(2)管理者过度自信通过公司财务决策行为对公司绩效产生影响
实证结果表明,管理者的过度自信水平与公司投资支出、并购行为、资产负债率和公司现金股利支付率均具有显著的正相关关系,而公司财务决策行为(除股利支付率外)对上市公司业绩具有显著的负向影响。并且,与管理者非过度自信的公司相比,管理者过度自信的公司业绩更差。这表明,管理者过度自信通过公司投资、并购和融资等财务决策行为间接对公司绩效产生影响。
(3)与高管层过度自信相比,董事长过度自信对公司财务决策和绩效的解释力更强
通过比较研究发现,董事长过度自信对公司投资支出、并购行为、债务期限结构和股利支付率均具有显著的影响,而高管层过度自信仅对公司投资支出和融资决策影响显著。整体而言,董事长过度自信比高管层过度自信对公司财务决策与公司绩效具有更强的解释力,从而说明,在我国上市公司中,董事长对公司决策具有更为重要的影响。
归纳起来,本文对于丰富与促进管理者过度自信领域的研究主要具有以下三个方面的贡献：
(1)本文构建了管理者过度自信、公司财务决策与公司绩效三者之间关系的理论模型,并实证检验了三者之间影响关系。
(2)本文基于高层梯队理论,采用实证研究的方法验证了管理者背景特征对管理者过度自信的影响,研究发现海洋文化与内陆文化的区域文化差异对中国管理者的过度自信水平具有显著影响。
(3)本文结合中国文化情境,采取实证研究方法,验证了董事长过度自信比高管层过度自信对公司财务决策和公司绩效具有更强的解释力。
此外,本文还根据我国企业财务决策行为的现状提出了公司层面的政策建议,并指出了文章的不足之处。
Managerial overconfidence and non-rational financial decisions are an important research topic in the field of behavioral corporate finance. On one hand, some successful companies fell into deep crisis for managerial overconfidence leads them to make non-rational financial decisions, such as Sichuan Changhong, Sanjiu Group and Sunco China. On the other hand, many top managers properly assess their own ability and corporate power, and then make rational financial decisions according to the context, which leads their companies to grow up rapidly, such as Wanxiang Group, Huawei Technology, Gree Group and Midea Group. The success or failure of these companies supply with important theoretical value and practical guidance, and have aroused people's widespread concern and discussion. However, after more than 30 years, most of the literatures in the field of behavioral corporate finance focus on the non-rational financial decisions of investors, the literatures on the non-rational financial decisions of corporate managers are relatively rare. In fact, as an emerging research topic, the researches on managerial overconfidence and corporate financial decisions which using domestic companies as sample are extremely rare.
Based on the above, this paper comparatively analyses four typical cases, and then indicates several key propositions that need in-depth study. They are as follows:(1) how will managerial overconfidence influence on corporate financial decisions? As corporate financial decisions can affect corporate performance, will the performance of companies with overconfident and non-overconfident managers be significantly different? (2) Will the impact of chairman overconfidence and TMT overconfidence on corporate financial decision be significantly different? (3) How to accurately define and measure managerial overconfidence? (4) Are the effects of different background characteristics such as regional culture, gender, education and age on the degree of managerial confidence unlike?
According to the above propositions, this paper systematically reviews the relevant literatures on managerial background characteristics, managerial overconfidence, corporate financial decisions and corporate performance, and then deductively analyses the intrinsic link between these variables combining with Chinese cultural context and management practices. After that, this paper puts forward several hypothesizes and a theoretical model, and then uses the date of Chinese listed companies in 2005-2008 to conduct an empirical test. This paper reaches the following conclusions:
(1) The cultural background and age of chairman have significant influence on chairman overconfidence.
The empirical results show that the chairman from the coastal areas are more likely to exhibit overconfidence compared to chairman from the inland areas. This infers that coastal culture can easier induce corporate managers to be overconfidence, relative to inland culture. In addition, older chairman is less likely to exhibit overconfidence. This infers that old chairman can make form an objective and proper perception of his/her own ability and corporate financial decisions, and then exhibit moderate confidence.
(2) Managerial overconfidence can affect corporate performance through corporate financial decisions.
The results of empirical test show that managerial overconfidence has a positive and significant influence on corporate investment expenditure, merger and acquisition, the ratio of leverage and cash dividend payment, and these corporate financial decisions (except cash dividend payment) have negative and significant influence on corporate performance. Moreover, compared to the performance of companies with normal managers, that of companies with overconfident managers is significantly lower. That is to say, managerial overconfidence can indirectly influence corporate performance through the role of corporate financial decisions.
(3) Compared to TMT overconfidence, chairman overconfidence can better explain the non-rational financial decisions and corporate performance.
The results of comparative study show that chairman overconfidence significantly influences all corporate financial decisions such as investment expenditure, merger and acquisition, the ratio of leverage and cash dividend payment; however, TMT overconfidence only significantly influences corporate investment expenditure and financing decisions. Overall, relative to TMT overconfidence, chairman overconfidence can better explain the non-rational financial decisions and corporate performance. This infers that in Chinese listed companies, chairman has an important influence on corporate decisions.
To sum up, this paper contributes to the improvement of theoretical research in the field of managerial overconfidence in three ways:
(1) This paper systematically builds up a theoretical model on the relationship between managerial overconfidence, corporate financial decisions and corporate performance, and empirically tests their interactive influences.
(2) From the respective of top echelon theory, this paper empirically studies the impact of background characteristics of managers on their overconfidence. It finds that coastal culture and inland culture have different and significant impact on managerial overconfidence.
(3) Combing with Chinese cultural context, this paper verifies that chairman overconfidence can better explain corporate financial decisions and corporate performance, compared to TMT overconfidence.
In the end, this paper proposes several policy advices for Chinese companies with hope of helping them overcome the negative effects of managerial overconfidence, then points out the limitedness of this paper.
基于此,本文透过典型案例的比较分析,结合文献与理论演绎,指出了当前值得深入研究和证实的几个核心命题：(1)管理者过度自信对公司财务决策行为有何影响?依循财务决策行为影响公司绩效的思路,管理者非过度自信的公司和管理者过度自信的公司绩效是否存在显著的差异?(2)董事长过度自信和高层管理团队过度自信对公司财务决策和公司绩效的影响是否存在差异?(3)如何界定和衡量管理者过度自信?(4)不同地域文化、性别、学历、年龄等背景特征的管理者的过度自信水平是否不一样?
按照上述命题,本文系统地梳理了有关管理者背景特征、管理者过度自信、公司财务决策行为与上市公司业绩的理论与文献,并结合中国文化情境与管理实践,就这些变量之间的内在联系进行了演绎分析,提出了本研究的假设和理论模型。然后,利用2005-2008年中国上市公司的经验数据对研究假设和理论模型进行了实证检验,得出了如下研究结论：
(1)董事长的文化背景和年龄特征对其是否过度自信具有显著的影响
通过实证研究发现,与籍贯为内陆地区的董事长相比,籍贯为沿海地区的董事长更容易表现出过度自信。从而说明,与内陆文化相比,海洋文化的熏陶能够使公司管理者更容易表现出过度自信。此外,董事长年龄越大,其越不容易表现出过度自信。这说明,年龄越大的公司管理者越能对自身能力与公司决策形成客观、正确的认知,因此,越不容易表现出过度自信。
(2)管理者过度自信通过公司财务决策行为对公司绩效产生影响
实证结果表明,管理者的过度自信水平与公司投资支出、并购行为、资产负债率和公司现金股利支付率均具有显著的正相关关系,而公司财务决策行为(除股利支付率外)对上市公司业绩具有显著的负向影响。并且,与管理者非过度自信的公司相比,管理者过度自信的公司业绩更差。这表明,管理者过度自信通过公司投资、并购和融资等财务决策行为间接对公司绩效产生影响。
(3)与高管层过度自信相比,董事长过度自信对公司财务决策和绩效的解释力更强
通过比较研究发现,董事长过度自信对公司投资支出、并购行为、债务期限结构和股利支付率均具有显著的影响,而高管层过度自信仅对公司投资支出和融资决策影响显著。整体而言,董事长过度自信比高管层过度自信对公司财务决策与公司绩效具有更强的解释力,从而说明,在我国上市公司中,董事长对公司决策具有更为重要的影响。
归纳起来,本文对于丰富与促进管理者过度自信领域的研究主要具有以下三个方面的贡献：
(1)本文构建了管理者过度自信、公司财务决策与公司绩效三者之间关系的理论模型,并实证检验了三者之间影响关系。
(2)本文基于高层梯队理论,采用实证研究的方法验证了管理者背景特征对管理者过度自信的影响,研究发现海洋文化与内陆文化的区域文化差异对中国管理者的过度自信水平具有显著影响。
(3)本文结合中国文化情境,采取实证研究方法,验证了董事长过度自信比高管层过度自信对公司财务决策和公司绩效具有更强的解释力。
此外,本文还根据我国企业财务决策行为的现状提出了公司层面的政策建议,并指出了文章的不足之处。
Managerial overconfidence and non-rational financial decisions are an important research topic in the field of behavioral corporate finance. On one hand, some successful companies fell into deep crisis for managerial overconfidence leads them to make non-rational financial decisions, such as Sichuan Changhong, Sanjiu Group and Sunco China. On the other hand, many top managers properly assess their own ability and corporate power, and then make rational financial decisions according to the context, which leads their companies to grow up rapidly, such as Wanxiang Group, Huawei Technology, Gree Group and Midea Group. The success or failure of these companies supply with important theoretical value and practical guidance, and have aroused people's widespread concern and discussion. However, after more than 30 years, most of the literatures in the field of behavioral corporate finance focus on the non-rational financial decisions of investors, the literatures on the non-rational financial decisions of corporate managers are relatively rare. In fact, as an emerging research topic, the researches on managerial overconfidence and corporate financial decisions which using domestic companies as sample are extremely rare.
Based on the above, this paper comparatively analyses four typical cases, and then indicates several key propositions that need in-depth study. They are as follows:(1) how will managerial overconfidence influence on corporate financial decisions? As corporate financial decisions can affect corporate performance, will the performance of companies with overconfident and non-overconfident managers be significantly different? (2) Will the impact of chairman overconfidence and TMT overconfidence on corporate financial decision be significantly different? (3) How to accurately define and measure managerial overconfidence? (4) Are the effects of different background characteristics such as regional culture, gender, education and age on the degree of managerial confidence unlike?
According to the above propositions, this paper systematically reviews the relevant literatures on managerial background characteristics, managerial overconfidence, corporate financial decisions and corporate performance, and then deductively analyses the intrinsic link between these variables combining with Chinese cultural context and management practices. After that, this paper puts forward several hypothesizes and a theoretical model, and then uses the date of Chinese listed companies in 2005-2008 to conduct an empirical test. This paper reaches the following conclusions:
(1) The cultural background and age of chairman have significant influence on chairman overconfidence.
The empirical results show that the chairman from the coastal areas are more likely to exhibit overconfidence compared to chairman from the inland areas. This infers that coastal culture can easier induce corporate managers to be overconfidence, relative to inland culture. In addition, older chairman is less likely to exhibit overconfidence. This infers that old chairman can make form an objective and proper perception of his/her own ability and corporate financial decisions, and then exhibit moderate confidence.
(2) Managerial overconfidence can affect corporate performance through corporate financial decisions.
The results of empirical test show that managerial overconfidence has a positive and significant influence on corporate investment expenditure, merger and acquisition, the ratio of leverage and cash dividend payment, and these corporate financial decisions (except cash dividend payment) have negative and significant influence on corporate performance. Moreover, compared to the performance of companies with normal managers, that of companies with overconfident managers is significantly lower. That is to say, managerial overconfidence can indirectly influence corporate performance through the role of corporate financial decisions.
(3) Compared to TMT overconfidence, chairman overconfidence can better explain the non-rational financial decisions and corporate performance.
The results of comparative study show that chairman overconfidence significantly influences all corporate financial decisions such as investment expenditure, merger and acquisition, the ratio of leverage and cash dividend payment; however, TMT overconfidence only significantly influences corporate investment expenditure and financing decisions. Overall, relative to TMT overconfidence, chairman overconfidence can better explain the non-rational financial decisions and corporate performance. This infers that in Chinese listed companies, chairman has an important influence on corporate decisions.
To sum up, this paper contributes to the improvement of theoretical research in the field of managerial overconfidence in three ways:
(1) This paper systematically builds up a theoretical model on the relationship between managerial overconfidence, corporate financial decisions and corporate performance, and empirically tests their interactive influences.
(2) From the respective of top echelon theory, this paper empirically studies the impact of background characteristics of managers on their overconfidence. It finds that coastal culture and inland culture have different and significant impact on managerial overconfidence.
(3) Combing with Chinese cultural context, this paper verifies that chairman overconfidence can better explain corporate financial decisions and corporate performance, compared to TMT overconfidence.
In the end, this paper proposes several policy advices for Chinese companies with hope of helping them overcome the negative effects of managerial overconfidence, then points out the limitedness of this paper.
引文
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