制度变迁对中国经济增长影响的实证研究
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摘要
制度变迁在一国的经济增长过程中究竟扮演着什么样的角色?各种制度变迁对经济增长是一种怎样的影响?制度变迁的度量及依据又是什么?……种种诸如此类的问题,始终是当今学术界争论的焦点。而作为发展中国家及转型国家的代表,建国以来的中国在经历改革开放与体制转型的过程中,经济增长也在同期取得了举世瞩目的成就。这更是让中国成为探讨制度变迁对经济增长影响这一研究领域的典型范例。然而已有研究成果中,学者们普遍倾向认为经济制度变迁对中国经济的增长有着明显的助推作用,对法律制度变迁及政治制度变迁层面上的关注则略显薄弱。此外,已有研究关于制度变迁影响中国经济增长的传导机制和作用机制也没有系统地剖析。这种做法显然缺乏对制度变迁影响中国经济增长效果的全方位把握。
本文以此为切入点,就各种类型的制度变迁(经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和政治制度变迁即行政体制变迁)对中国经济增长的影响进行了理论探讨和计量分析。论文的主要内容及逻辑结构为：首先,以现代经济增长理论和新制度经济学理论为基础,采用文献述评的方式系统回顾了国内外有关制度变迁影响经济增长的现有成果,分析总结了已有研究的不足及进一步探索的空间,指出经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和政治制度(行政体制)变迁是影响中国经济增长的主要制度变迁类型；其次,将制度变迁因素融入到已有的经济增长模型,从制度内生和外生两个角度对理论模型进行了扩展和推导,证明了制度变迁的确对一国的经济增长具有重要的影响；再次,结合North的国家理论及中国的实际情况,构建了制度变迁影响中国经济增长的引导机制,并在已有研究的基础上总结归纳了经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁及行政体制变迁各自影响中国经济增长的作用机制；最后,本着数据可得性、指标选取的准确性及合理性等原则,以中国的时间序列数据为依据,构建了度量各种制度变迁的指标体系,通过单位根检验、协整分析、向量误差修正模型及格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,实证检验了各种制度变迁对中国经济增长的影响大小,并给出相应的结论及建议。
研究构建的“国家意愿”导向下制度变迁影响中国经济增长的理论框架,并将法律制度变迁和政治制度(行政体制)变迁囊括其中,这在一定程度上拓宽了现有研究的范围,是对已有理论框架的进一步完善；通过考察经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和行政体制变迁各自对中国经济增长的影响,使得研究的问题更加全面；使用更为科学合理的实证手段,避免了最小二乘回归计量方法可能出现的伪回归等问题,从而使实证结果更加可信,提出的政策建议也更有针对性和可行性。
What roles do institutional changes play in the economic growth for a country? How do the institutional changes influence the economic growth? What are the measurement and basis of institutional changes? Such questions have always been the focus for arguing in academic world. As the representative of the developing countries and the transitional countries, China has achieved such great economic growth that it draws the world's attention in the process of reform and opening and system transformation, which makes China become a typical model in the research on the influence of institutional changes on the economic growth. However, among the achievements in research, scholars tend to think that the changes of economic institution has significant facilitation for China's economic growth but put less emphasis on the changes of legal institution and political institution. In addition, there has been no systematic analysis on the influence of institutional changes on transmission mechanism and action mechanism. Obviously, such practices lacks in the grasp of the influence of institutional changes on the economic growth from all sides.
Based on this, this paper makes a theoretical exploration and an econometric analysis of the influence of all kinds of institutional changes (economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and political institutional changes scilicet administration institutional changes) on the economic growth in China. The main content and logical structure are written as follows. First, based on the modern economic growth theory and new institutional economics, it makes a literature review about the existing achievements, analyzes the deficiency as well as the space of further exploration and points out that economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and political institutional changes are the main system types to influence the economic growth in China. Second, it proves that institutional changes actually influence the economic growth for a country through putting the factor of institutional changes into the existing economic growth model and expanding as well as deducing the theoretical model within and out of these institutions. Third, combining North's state theory and China's practical situation, it constructs the transmission mechanism of the influence of institutions on the economic growth in China and summarizes that the action mechanism of the influence of economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and administration institutional changes on the economic growth in China respectively based on the existing research achievements. Finally, with the principles of statistical availability and the accuracy and rationality of choice of index selection, according to the data of time sequence in China, it constructs the index system of measuring all kinds of institutional changes. It makes an empirical study of the extent to which all kinds of institutional changes influence the economic growth in China and provides the corresponding conclusion and suggestions through unit-root test, co-integration analysis, vector error correct model, and granger causality test and so on.
The constructed theoretical model of the influence on the economic growth in China under the guidance of "state will" includes the legal institutional changes and political institutional changes, which expands the scope of the existing researches and revises as well as improves the existing theoretical frames; through the investigation of the influences caused by economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and administration institutional changes, it makes the researches become more comprehensive; through more scientific and rational empirical means, it avoids the spurious regression caused by traditional metering measures and makes the empirical results more credible and the corresponding suggestions on policy more purposeful and feasible.
本文以此为切入点,就各种类型的制度变迁(经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和政治制度变迁即行政体制变迁)对中国经济增长的影响进行了理论探讨和计量分析。论文的主要内容及逻辑结构为：首先,以现代经济增长理论和新制度经济学理论为基础,采用文献述评的方式系统回顾了国内外有关制度变迁影响经济增长的现有成果,分析总结了已有研究的不足及进一步探索的空间,指出经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和政治制度(行政体制)变迁是影响中国经济增长的主要制度变迁类型；其次,将制度变迁因素融入到已有的经济增长模型,从制度内生和外生两个角度对理论模型进行了扩展和推导,证明了制度变迁的确对一国的经济增长具有重要的影响；再次,结合North的国家理论及中国的实际情况,构建了制度变迁影响中国经济增长的引导机制,并在已有研究的基础上总结归纳了经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁及行政体制变迁各自影响中国经济增长的作用机制；最后,本着数据可得性、指标选取的准确性及合理性等原则,以中国的时间序列数据为依据,构建了度量各种制度变迁的指标体系,通过单位根检验、协整分析、向量误差修正模型及格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,实证检验了各种制度变迁对中国经济增长的影响大小,并给出相应的结论及建议。
研究构建的“国家意愿”导向下制度变迁影响中国经济增长的理论框架,并将法律制度变迁和政治制度(行政体制)变迁囊括其中,这在一定程度上拓宽了现有研究的范围,是对已有理论框架的进一步完善；通过考察经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和行政体制变迁各自对中国经济增长的影响,使得研究的问题更加全面；使用更为科学合理的实证手段,避免了最小二乘回归计量方法可能出现的伪回归等问题,从而使实证结果更加可信,提出的政策建议也更有针对性和可行性。
What roles do institutional changes play in the economic growth for a country? How do the institutional changes influence the economic growth? What are the measurement and basis of institutional changes? Such questions have always been the focus for arguing in academic world. As the representative of the developing countries and the transitional countries, China has achieved such great economic growth that it draws the world's attention in the process of reform and opening and system transformation, which makes China become a typical model in the research on the influence of institutional changes on the economic growth. However, among the achievements in research, scholars tend to think that the changes of economic institution has significant facilitation for China's economic growth but put less emphasis on the changes of legal institution and political institution. In addition, there has been no systematic analysis on the influence of institutional changes on transmission mechanism and action mechanism. Obviously, such practices lacks in the grasp of the influence of institutional changes on the economic growth from all sides.
Based on this, this paper makes a theoretical exploration and an econometric analysis of the influence of all kinds of institutional changes (economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and political institutional changes scilicet administration institutional changes) on the economic growth in China. The main content and logical structure are written as follows. First, based on the modern economic growth theory and new institutional economics, it makes a literature review about the existing achievements, analyzes the deficiency as well as the space of further exploration and points out that economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and political institutional changes are the main system types to influence the economic growth in China. Second, it proves that institutional changes actually influence the economic growth for a country through putting the factor of institutional changes into the existing economic growth model and expanding as well as deducing the theoretical model within and out of these institutions. Third, combining North's state theory and China's practical situation, it constructs the transmission mechanism of the influence of institutions on the economic growth in China and summarizes that the action mechanism of the influence of economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and administration institutional changes on the economic growth in China respectively based on the existing research achievements. Finally, with the principles of statistical availability and the accuracy and rationality of choice of index selection, according to the data of time sequence in China, it constructs the index system of measuring all kinds of institutional changes. It makes an empirical study of the extent to which all kinds of institutional changes influence the economic growth in China and provides the corresponding conclusion and suggestions through unit-root test, co-integration analysis, vector error correct model, and granger causality test and so on.
The constructed theoretical model of the influence on the economic growth in China under the guidance of "state will" includes the legal institutional changes and political institutional changes, which expands the scope of the existing researches and revises as well as improves the existing theoretical frames; through the investigation of the influences caused by economic institutional changes, legal institutional changes and administration institutional changes, it makes the researches become more comprehensive; through more scientific and rational empirical means, it avoids the spurious regression caused by traditional metering measures and makes the empirical results more credible and the corresponding suggestions on policy more purposeful and feasible.
引文
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