贴现现金流量法在TCL集团吸收合并中的应用研究
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摘要
吸收合并，即两家企业合并后只有一家企业仍然保留法人地位，而另外一家企业丧失了原有的法人地位的行为。
企业有账面价值、市场价值、清算价值、贴现评估价值等价值形式，企业价值评估方法有贴现现金流量法、成本法、市场价值法和净资产加成系数法等。而贴现现金流量法是指企业在未来持续经营情况下的预期现金流量，按照一定的贴现率折成现值，借以对企业价值进行评估的一种方法。但在日益崇尚“现金至尊”的现代理财环境中，贴现现金流量法因其以现金流量预测为基础，充分考虑了目标企业未来创造现金流量能力对其价值的影响而倍受推荐。这种价值评估方法主要不是考虑企业的有形资产，而是对企业资产账面价值以外的经营管理能力、增长机会储备、与客户的长期业务关系等各种因素进行综合分析，借以对企业价值进行评估。
TCL集团通过吸收合并TCL通讯实现整体上市，这是我国证券市场上首例非上市公司针对上市公司的换股合并案例。论文首先分析了《预案说明书》对TCL集团及TCL通讯价值的评估，从分析中可以发现，TCL通讯的每股价值是以TCL通讯的市场价值为基础来估算的，TCL集团的每股价值则是以2003年以来，因有52支A股首次发行市盈率在12-20倍之间，从而认为TCL集团的首次发行市盈率也在10-20倍之间，但我国股市还不很完善，市盈率并不能准确地反映企业的真实经营状况，这样就导致评估结果不十分准确。因此，论文接着分别分析了两家企业的历史绩效，预测了两家企业的自由现金流量后，再估计出贴现率，使用贴现现金流量法重新评估了TCL集团及TCL通讯的价值，并对企业价值进行了敏感性分析，通过以上分析，得出的结论与实际较为相符。
论文最后分析了贴现现金流量法在运用中存在的一些问题，并提出了相应的对策。
Absorption and merger is the behavior of a enterprise still reserving the corporative position in the two enterprises after merging, but another enterprise losing the corporative position which originally possessed.
There are account value, market value, clearing up value, discount cash flow value etc. in the form of the enterprise value evaluation. There are discount cash flow method, market method, cost method , clean property coefficient addition method etc. in the method of enterprise value evaluation,. But the discount cash flow method is a method of the evaluation to the enterprise value that the expecting cash flow is discounted to be the current value according to the certain discount rate in the conditions that the enterprise keeps on operating in the future. The discount cash flow method suffers to recommend all the more firmly in the modern financial environment of emphasizing the " cash sovereign", because of its regarding cash flow estimate as the foundation and fully considering the ability that the enterprise creates cash flow .This kind of value doesn't considerate the tangible assets of the business enterprise, but synthesizes and analyzes the management ability, opportunity to increase store and the cu
stomers long-term business relations excluding of the business enterprise property accounting value. Then it estimates the enterprise value.
The group of TCL realizes the whole appear on the market through the absorbing to merge the communication of TCL, this is the first case example to aim at the listed company by exchanging stocks in our country stock market. The thesis first analyzes the value evaluation in ≤The manual of predicting the case≥ . Each stock price of the communication of TCL is estimated as the foundation of the communication of TCL in ≤The manual of predicting the case≥ .The market earning rate is 10-20 times among the 52 stocks published for the first time in our country since 2003. Regarding this as the premise, 10-20 times of market earning rate was considered to be the calculating scope of market earning rate of the group of TCL published for the first time. Our country stock market is not prosperous , market earning rate can't reflect the actual operating conditions of the business enterprise accurately and its analyzing results are not accurate too. The thesis analyzes two historical results of company respectively, pr
edicts the free cash flow of two companies, then estimates the discount rate, computes the discount evaluation value of the
two enterprises with the discount cash flow method and proceeds the sensitivity analysis for the enterprise value. The conclusion agrees with the actual conditions.
Finally, the thesis analyzes some problems in the application of discount cash flow in our country and puts forward the homologous counterplans.
企业有账面价值、市场价值、清算价值、贴现评估价值等价值形式，企业价值评估方法有贴现现金流量法、成本法、市场价值法和净资产加成系数法等。而贴现现金流量法是指企业在未来持续经营情况下的预期现金流量，按照一定的贴现率折成现值，借以对企业价值进行评估的一种方法。但在日益崇尚“现金至尊”的现代理财环境中，贴现现金流量法因其以现金流量预测为基础，充分考虑了目标企业未来创造现金流量能力对其价值的影响而倍受推荐。这种价值评估方法主要不是考虑企业的有形资产，而是对企业资产账面价值以外的经营管理能力、增长机会储备、与客户的长期业务关系等各种因素进行综合分析，借以对企业价值进行评估。
TCL集团通过吸收合并TCL通讯实现整体上市，这是我国证券市场上首例非上市公司针对上市公司的换股合并案例。论文首先分析了《预案说明书》对TCL集团及TCL通讯价值的评估，从分析中可以发现，TCL通讯的每股价值是以TCL通讯的市场价值为基础来估算的，TCL集团的每股价值则是以2003年以来，因有52支A股首次发行市盈率在12-20倍之间，从而认为TCL集团的首次发行市盈率也在10-20倍之间，但我国股市还不很完善，市盈率并不能准确地反映企业的真实经营状况，这样就导致评估结果不十分准确。因此，论文接着分别分析了两家企业的历史绩效，预测了两家企业的自由现金流量后，再估计出贴现率，使用贴现现金流量法重新评估了TCL集团及TCL通讯的价值，并对企业价值进行了敏感性分析，通过以上分析，得出的结论与实际较为相符。
论文最后分析了贴现现金流量法在运用中存在的一些问题，并提出了相应的对策。
Absorption and merger is the behavior of a enterprise still reserving the corporative position in the two enterprises after merging, but another enterprise losing the corporative position which originally possessed.
There are account value, market value, clearing up value, discount cash flow value etc. in the form of the enterprise value evaluation. There are discount cash flow method, market method, cost method , clean property coefficient addition method etc. in the method of enterprise value evaluation,. But the discount cash flow method is a method of the evaluation to the enterprise value that the expecting cash flow is discounted to be the current value according to the certain discount rate in the conditions that the enterprise keeps on operating in the future. The discount cash flow method suffers to recommend all the more firmly in the modern financial environment of emphasizing the " cash sovereign", because of its regarding cash flow estimate as the foundation and fully considering the ability that the enterprise creates cash flow .This kind of value doesn't considerate the tangible assets of the business enterprise, but synthesizes and analyzes the management ability, opportunity to increase store and the cu
stomers long-term business relations excluding of the business enterprise property accounting value. Then it estimates the enterprise value.
The group of TCL realizes the whole appear on the market through the absorbing to merge the communication of TCL, this is the first case example to aim at the listed company by exchanging stocks in our country stock market. The thesis first analyzes the value evaluation in ≤The manual of predicting the case≥ . Each stock price of the communication of TCL is estimated as the foundation of the communication of TCL in ≤The manual of predicting the case≥ .The market earning rate is 10-20 times among the 52 stocks published for the first time in our country since 2003. Regarding this as the premise, 10-20 times of market earning rate was considered to be the calculating scope of market earning rate of the group of TCL published for the first time. Our country stock market is not prosperous , market earning rate can't reflect the actual operating conditions of the business enterprise accurately and its analyzing results are not accurate too. The thesis analyzes two historical results of company respectively, pr
edicts the free cash flow of two companies, then estimates the discount rate, computes the discount evaluation value of the
two enterprises with the discount cash flow method and proceeds the sensitivity analysis for the enterprise value. The conclusion agrees with the actual conditions.
Finally, the thesis analyzes some problems in the application of discount cash flow in our country and puts forward the homologous counterplans.
引文
[1] 马克思，资本论．北京：人民出版社，1975，235-236
[2] 王建妮，张启銮．浅谈企业吸收合并中的价值评估，辽宁商务职业学院学报，2001(3)：28-30
[3] 徐高林．西方企业购并估价方法综述，国际贸易问题，1999(2)：12-16
[4] 谌浩，周迪玲．资产评估学，长沙：国防科技大学出版社，1999，770-772
[5] 郭永清．企业吸收合并与收购实务，长春：东北财经大学出版社，1999，1-6；57-58
[6] 蔡建民，徐强毅．企业吸收合并中的价值评估，上海会计，2001(7)：22-24
[7] 舒强兴，企业财务会计学，长沙：湖南人民出版社，2003，168-170
[8] 财政部注册会计师考试委员会办公室．财务成本管理，北京：经济出版社，2003，325-326
[9] 汤姆·科普兰，蒂姆·科勒．价值评估，北京：中国大百科全书出版社，1997，351-362
[10] 于春晖，刘祥生．企业吸收合并理论与实务，上海：立信会计出版社，2000，121-123
[11] 宋冬林，金成晓．企业吸收合并，吉林：吉林大学出版社，2001，153-168
[12] 项有志．企业吸收合并会计．上海：立信会计出版社，2000，132-135，154-160
[13] Domsetz, H. "Industry tructure, Market Rivalry, and Public, Policy", The Journal of Law and Economics, 16, 1973
[14] 亚当·斯密．国民财富的性质和原因的研究．北京：商务书馆，1987，231-235
[15] 王庆乐，刘杰．高新技术企业价值评估的基本问题探析，中国资产评估，2001(6)：20-23
[16] Fama, and Jensen, "Separation of Ownership and Control", Journal of Law and Economics, 26,1983
[17] 王少豪．高新技术企业公司的评估特点及方法，中国资产评估，2001(2)：26-29
[18] 薛涛．我国证券市场中的换股吸收合并，中国营销传播网，200.09.06
[19] TCL集团2000年-2003年年报
[20] 关于TCL集团股份有限公司吸收合并TCL通讯预案说明书，中国证券报．2003．09．30
[21] TCL通讯2000年-2003年年报
[22] 钱明杰．TCL吸收合并上市作法对股市有何借鉴?经济杂志，2003．11．21
[23] 冯宝华．整体上市，新蓝股呼之欲出．中国证券报，2003．12．13
[24] 王巍，康荣平．中国吸收合并报告，中国物资出版社，2001，58-60
[25] 亚历山德拉·里德·拉杰科斯，查尔斯版·M·埃尔森．吸收合并的艺术，中国财政经济出版社，2000，232-235
[26] Heindel, Robert, "A Theory of Capital Structure Relevance and Imperfct Information," Journal of Finance, 37:l141-50,1982
[27] 周其仁．市场里的企业：一个人力资本与非人力资本的特别合约，经济研究，1996(6)，35-36
[28] 张维迎．企业的企业家——契约理论，上海：上海三联书店，1999，212-215
[29] Jensen and Mecking, "Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure"; Journal of Financial Economics, 1976
[30] Jensen, "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeovers", American Economic Review, 76, 1986
[31] 于子明．现代人力资源的开发与管理，中国展望出版社，1986，120-132．
[32] 柳剑平．经济全球化与我国经济安全战略的选择，光明日报，1998，08，16
[33] Muscarella, C. and M. Vetsuypens, "Efficiency and Organizational Structure: A study of reverse LBOs", Journal of Finance, 45,1990
[34] Chueng Stenuen, "The Contractual Nature of The Firm" Journal of Lawand Economics, 26CU:1-21,1983
[35] David. K and H. Singh, "Sources of Acquisition Culture Risk", inG. Von Krogh, A Sinatra and H. Singh(eds.)The Management of corporate Acquisition, Macmillian, 1994
[36] 李若山．审计学，辽宁：辽宁人民出版社，1995，302-310
[37] 汤云为．高级财务会计，上海：上海三联书店，1995，110-112
[38] Davik J. denis, Dlane K. Denis and Atula Sarin, "Agency Problems, Equity Ownership and Corporate Diversification", Journal of Finance Vol. No. 1 March, 1997
[39] Morck, Kandall Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny, "Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?", Journal of Financial Econimics, 293-316,1990
[40] G·J·施蒂格勒．通向垄断和寡占之路——吸收合并载产业组织和政治管制，潘振民译，上海：上海三联书店，1996，243-244
[41] 郭民生．无形资产评估案例选编与评述，中国物资出版社，1999
[42] Josephc. kpallinger: You're your next acquisition success-ful, Management Accounting, September, 1998.09.17
[43] Anthony F. Buono, James L. Bowditch. The Human Side of Mergers and Acquisitions.[s.1.]: Jossey-Bass Inc, 1989
[44] Oliver Hart, John Mohn Moore. Property Rights and the Nature of the firm. Journal of Political Economy, 1990,98(6)
[45] Robert Lawrence Kuhn. Mergers, Acquisitions, and Leveraged Buyouts. [s.1.]: Richard O. Irwin Press, 1990
[46] Stanley Foster Reed, Lane, Edson, et al. The Art of M&A.[s.1.]:Dow Jones-Irwin, 1989
[2] 王建妮，张启銮．浅谈企业吸收合并中的价值评估，辽宁商务职业学院学报，2001(3)：28-30
[3] 徐高林．西方企业购并估价方法综述，国际贸易问题，1999(2)：12-16
[4] 谌浩，周迪玲．资产评估学，长沙：国防科技大学出版社，1999，770-772
[5] 郭永清．企业吸收合并与收购实务，长春：东北财经大学出版社，1999，1-6；57-58
[6] 蔡建民，徐强毅．企业吸收合并中的价值评估，上海会计，2001(7)：22-24
[7] 舒强兴，企业财务会计学，长沙：湖南人民出版社，2003，168-170
[8] 财政部注册会计师考试委员会办公室．财务成本管理，北京：经济出版社，2003，325-326
[9] 汤姆·科普兰，蒂姆·科勒．价值评估，北京：中国大百科全书出版社，1997，351-362
[10] 于春晖，刘祥生．企业吸收合并理论与实务，上海：立信会计出版社，2000，121-123
[11] 宋冬林，金成晓．企业吸收合并，吉林：吉林大学出版社，2001，153-168
[12] 项有志．企业吸收合并会计．上海：立信会计出版社，2000，132-135，154-160
[13] Domsetz, H. "Industry tructure, Market Rivalry, and Public, Policy", The Journal of Law and Economics, 16, 1973
[14] 亚当·斯密．国民财富的性质和原因的研究．北京：商务书馆，1987，231-235
[15] 王庆乐，刘杰．高新技术企业价值评估的基本问题探析，中国资产评估，2001(6)：20-23
[16] Fama, and Jensen, "Separation of Ownership and Control", Journal of Law and Economics, 26,1983
[17] 王少豪．高新技术企业公司的评估特点及方法，中国资产评估，2001(2)：26-29
[18] 薛涛．我国证券市场中的换股吸收合并，中国营销传播网，200.09.06
[19] TCL集团2000年-2003年年报
[20] 关于TCL集团股份有限公司吸收合并TCL通讯预案说明书，中国证券报．2003．09．30
[21] TCL通讯2000年-2003年年报
[22] 钱明杰．TCL吸收合并上市作法对股市有何借鉴?经济杂志，2003．11．21
[23] 冯宝华．整体上市，新蓝股呼之欲出．中国证券报，2003．12．13
[24] 王巍，康荣平．中国吸收合并报告，中国物资出版社，2001，58-60
[25] 亚历山德拉·里德·拉杰科斯，查尔斯版·M·埃尔森．吸收合并的艺术，中国财政经济出版社，2000，232-235
[26] Heindel, Robert, "A Theory of Capital Structure Relevance and Imperfct Information," Journal of Finance, 37:l141-50,1982
[27] 周其仁．市场里的企业：一个人力资本与非人力资本的特别合约，经济研究，1996(6)，35-36
[28] 张维迎．企业的企业家——契约理论，上海：上海三联书店，1999，212-215
[29] Jensen and Mecking, "Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure"; Journal of Financial Economics, 1976
[30] Jensen, "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeovers", American Economic Review, 76, 1986
[31] 于子明．现代人力资源的开发与管理，中国展望出版社，1986，120-132．
[32] 柳剑平．经济全球化与我国经济安全战略的选择，光明日报，1998，08，16
[33] Muscarella, C. and M. Vetsuypens, "Efficiency and Organizational Structure: A study of reverse LBOs", Journal of Finance, 45,1990
[34] Chueng Stenuen, "The Contractual Nature of The Firm" Journal of Lawand Economics, 26CU:1-21,1983
[35] David. K and H. Singh, "Sources of Acquisition Culture Risk", inG. Von Krogh, A Sinatra and H. Singh(eds.)The Management of corporate Acquisition, Macmillian, 1994
[36] 李若山．审计学，辽宁：辽宁人民出版社，1995，302-310
[37] 汤云为．高级财务会计，上海：上海三联书店，1995，110-112
[38] Davik J. denis, Dlane K. Denis and Atula Sarin, "Agency Problems, Equity Ownership and Corporate Diversification", Journal of Finance Vol. No. 1 March, 1997
[39] Morck, Kandall Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny, "Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?", Journal of Financial Econimics, 293-316,1990
[40] G·J·施蒂格勒．通向垄断和寡占之路——吸收合并载产业组织和政治管制，潘振民译，上海：上海三联书店，1996，243-244
[41] 郭民生．无形资产评估案例选编与评述，中国物资出版社，1999
[42] Josephc. kpallinger: You're your next acquisition success-ful, Management Accounting, September, 1998.09.17
[43] Anthony F. Buono, James L. Bowditch. The Human Side of Mergers and Acquisitions.[s.1.]: Jossey-Bass Inc, 1989
[44] Oliver Hart, John Mohn Moore. Property Rights and the Nature of the firm. Journal of Political Economy, 1990,98(6)
[45] Robert Lawrence Kuhn. Mergers, Acquisitions, and Leveraged Buyouts. [s.1.]: Richard O. Irwin Press, 1990
[46] Stanley Foster Reed, Lane, Edson, et al. The Art of M&A.[s.1.]:Dow Jones-Irwin, 1989