未确知数学在煤矿安全综合评价中的应用研究
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摘要
煤矿生产系统是一个复杂的多因素、多变量、多层次的人-机-环境系统，对其进行安全评价涉及诸多不确定信息。本文在分析随机信息、模糊信息、灰色信息和未确知信息优缺点基础之上，应用未确知数学理论，将未确知信息和未确知测度评价方法引入煤矿企业的安全评价，基于现场实践经验，提出了煤矿安全综合评价的一种新思路，即将未确知测度和盲数均值理论与安全检查表相结合，对矿井安全水平进行综合评价，得出矿井的安全等级。应用未确知测度评价方法进行综合评价时，最重要的是评价因素体系的建立和各因素权重的确定。依据事故理论的综合观点，建立了多层次的煤矿安全评价因素体系，并采用了改进型的层次分析法（AHP）确定评价因素权重，使权重的赋值更加科学、合理，较好的反映了各因素对矿井安全现状的重要程度。建立了矿井安全综合评价的未确知测度数学模型，划分了安全因素的安全等级，并在专家可信度的基础上研究了不确定性结论合成的MAMB方法。最后，将所研究的未确知测度评价方法应用于黄陵双龙煤矿，得出该矿井的安全等级。应用实例表明：未确知测度综合评价方法可操作性强、效果较好，可以在一般工业企业的安全评价中广泛应用。
The production system in coal mine is a complicated human-machine-environment one with multi-factor, multi-variable, and multi-level. Therefore, its safety evaluation involves a lot of uncertain information. On the basis of analysis about the advantages and disadvantages of random information, fuzzy information, grey information and unascertained information, this paper utilizes unascertained mathematics theory and applies unascertained information and measure evaluation into the safety evaluation in coal mine. Also, according to practical experience on the scene, this paper draws up a new view about safety comprehensive evaluation in coal mine, namely, it combines unascertained measure with the theory of even value of blind number. Besides, the safety degree of mine is determined by analyzing comprehensively mine safety level. During the comprehensive analysis utilizing method of unascertained measure evaluation, the most important things are the establishment of evaluation element system and balance of various elements. According to comprehensive views of accident theory, this paper sets up multi-level evaluation element system about mine safety and utilizes improved AHP to determine the weight of evaluation element, which makes the weight more scientific and reasonable and better reflects the importance of various elements in mine safety. What’s more, the unascertained measure model of comprehensive safety evaluation in coal mine is established and safety elements are degraded. On the basis of expert credibility, this paper studies MAMB method compounded by uncertainty conclusion. Finally, this paper applies evaluation method of unascertained measure into Shuanglong Mine in Huangling and points out its safety grade. Practical application cases prove that comprehensive evaluation method of unascertained measure is easy to operate and has better effect. Hence, it can be applied widely in the safety evaluation of ordinary industrial enterprises.
The production system in coal mine is a complicated human-machine-environment one with multi-factor, multi-variable, and multi-level. Therefore, its safety evaluation involves a lot of uncertain information. On the basis of analysis about the advantages and disadvantages of random information, fuzzy information, grey information and unascertained information, this paper utilizes unascertained mathematics theory and applies unascertained information and measure evaluation into the safety evaluation in coal mine. Also, according to practical experience on the scene, this paper draws up a new view about safety comprehensive evaluation in coal mine, namely, it combines unascertained measure with the theory of even value of blind number. Besides, the safety degree of mine is determined by analyzing comprehensively mine safety level. During the comprehensive analysis utilizing method of unascertained measure evaluation, the most important things are the establishment of evaluation element system and balance of various elements. According to comprehensive views of accident theory, this paper sets up multi-level evaluation element system about mine safety and utilizes improved AHP to determine the weight of evaluation element, which makes the weight more scientific and reasonable and better reflects the importance of various elements in mine safety. What’s more, the unascertained measure model of comprehensive safety evaluation in coal mine is established and safety elements are degraded. On the basis of expert credibility, this paper studies MAMB method compounded by uncertainty conclusion. Finally, this paper applies evaluation method of unascertained measure into Shuanglong Mine in Huangling and points out its safety grade. Practical application cases prove that comprehensive evaluation method of unascertained measure is easy to operate and has better effect. Hence, it can be applied widely in the safety evaluation of ordinary industrial enterprises.
引文
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[30] 张永来.矿井自然灾害的综合评价.煤矿安全,1997,17(12):21~26
[31] 施式亮,王海桥.矿井安全非线形动力学评价.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2001
[32] 李峰.关于交通安全与交通事故预测新方法的研究.系统工程,1993,4(6):5~8
[33] 田思进,朱珍.安全系统工程在冶金企业应用状况的问卷调查.工业安全预防,1994,1(10):2~5
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[37] 汪培庄.模糊集合论及其应用.上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983
[38] 邓聚龙.灰色系统(社会·经济) .北京:国防工业出版社,1985
[39] 王清印.灰色数学基础.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1996
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[42] Shafer G.Mathematical Theory of Fvidence.Princeton University Press.1976
[43] Zadeh L.Fuzzy Sets as A basis for Theory of Possibility.Fuzzy Sets and systemsw.1978
[44] Ge Qi,Wu Heqin.Several Unascertained Model on Developing Strategies in the Yangte River Basin.Wu Han: ISDSRC 1991
[45] 王光远著.工程软科学理论.北京:科学出版社,1992
[46] 王丽萍.未确知概率.中国新科学科研究会论文集,1991
[47] 李惠娟.未确知数学的基本原理及其应用.第三届全国模糊数学分析设计学术交流会论文集,北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1993
[48] Li Lie,Jia Ruijuan,Liu Hentong.The application of Unascertained Mathematics in Stock Speculation Performance.International Institute for General Systems Studies Special Issue
1997
[49] 刘开第编著.不确定性信息数学处理及其应用.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1998
[50] 刘开第等.水环境质量变权评价、识别模型.数量经济技术经济研究,2000.2
[51] 邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990
[2] 隋鹏程.中国矿山灾害.长沙:湖南人民出版社,1998.10~25
[3] 王亚军,吴 琼.2001年1-3月国内安全事故数据.安全与环境学报,2001,1(2):60~64
[4] 曲和鼎,王恒毅.安全软科学的理论与应用.天津:天津科技翻译出版社,1990
[5] 国家安全生产监督管理局.安全评价.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002
[6] 王广亮.系统工程与安全评价.冶金工业部环境保护研究所,1991
[7] HARSLE P.Hazard and risk assessment.DNV Loss Control Management,1999,3(4):5~10
[8] AICHE R.Dow’s Chemical Explosion Index Guide.New York:American Institute of Chemical Engineers,1994
[9] MOPGE.Dow’s Fire & Explosion index hazard classofication guide.New York:American institute of Chemical Engineers,1987
[10]ALKBHT.Dow’s Fire & Explosion index hazard classofication guide.New York：American institute of Chemical Engineers,1994
[11] 罗兰HE,莫里阿蒂B.系统安全工程与管理.译.武汉:冶金工业部安全技术研究所, 1985
[12] SIUN.Risk assessment for dynamic system:an overview.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1994,12(43):43~73
[13] HOLLNAGLE.Reliability of man-machine interaction.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1992,(38):81-89
[14] FINKELAM.Risk assessment research:only the eginning.RiskAnalysis,1994,14(6): 97~110
[15] 吴宗之.国外危险评价软件研究进展.劳动保护技术,1994,(3):24~29
[16] 罗曼尼RV.评估危险和安全的工伤事故分析法.国外金属矿山,1993, (7):57~60
[17] SIPSOUCC.Risk assessment as the basis for the introduction of new system [J] .Mining Engineering,1995,(11):343-348
[18] 袁旭.安全评价方法论.中国安全科学学报 (增刊), 1993:20~24
[19] 机械工业部质量安全司编.机械工业安全评价检查表.北京:机械工业出版社,1988
[20] 煤炭工业部.矿井通风质量标准及检查评定办法.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1982
[21] 煤炭工业部.生产矿井质量标准化标准.北京:煤炭工业出版社, 1994
[22] 金龙哲,黄元平.矿井瓦斯粉尘状态危险安全评价系统及其应用.北京:中国矿业大学北京研究生部, 1997
[23] 沈斐敏.安全系统工程理论与应用.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2001
[24] 江苏工学院.兵器工业机械工厂安全评价方法与标准.1989
[25] 葛以忠,申仁光.企业安全评价的模糊综合评价法.江苏工学院,1990,11(2):5~9
[26] John G.kreifelch.Expert options,Fuzzy probabilities and wornings:toward a mathematical mathod for evaluating waring reed and heed effentieness .Safety Science,1993,10
[27] Kara-zaitric.Development of an expert system for risk assessment of complex oil production systems.Probabilistic Safety Assessment Management,1991
[28] 曹庆贵.煤矿安全评价与安全信息管理.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1995
[29] 王鹏飞,李润求.工业安全评价方法与矿井安全评价技术综述.湘潭矿业学院学报,2002,3 (17):5~8
[30] 张永来.矿井自然灾害的综合评价.煤矿安全,1997,17(12):21~26
[31] 施式亮,王海桥.矿井安全非线形动力学评价.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2001
[32] 李峰.关于交通安全与交通事故预测新方法的研究.系统工程,1993,4(6):5~8
[33] 田思进,朱珍.安全系统工程在冶金企业应用状况的问卷调查.工业安全预防,1994,1(10):2~5
[34] 哈奇森·特伦斯W(李小弥,妾洪章等译).经济学的革命与发展.北京:北京大学出版社,1992
[35] 米道生等.数学分支巡礼.北京:中国青年出版社,1983
[36] 威洛比SS·.概率与统计.刘秀芳等译.北京:文化教育出版社,1982
[37] 汪培庄.模糊集合论及其应用.上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983
[38] 邓聚龙.灰色系统(社会·经济) .北京:国防工业出版社,1985
[39] 王清印.灰色数学基础.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1996
[40] 王光远.未确知信息及其数学处理.哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,12(4):1~4
[41] 刘开第,吴和琴等.未确知数学.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1997
[42] Shafer G.Mathematical Theory of Fvidence.Princeton University Press.1976
[43] Zadeh L.Fuzzy Sets as A basis for Theory of Possibility.Fuzzy Sets and systemsw.1978
[44] Ge Qi,Wu Heqin.Several Unascertained Model on Developing Strategies in the Yangte River Basin.Wu Han: ISDSRC 1991
[45] 王光远著.工程软科学理论.北京:科学出版社,1992
[46] 王丽萍.未确知概率.中国新科学科研究会论文集,1991
[47] 李惠娟.未确知数学的基本原理及其应用.第三届全国模糊数学分析设计学术交流会论文集,北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1993
[48] Li Lie,Jia Ruijuan,Liu Hentong.The application of Unascertained Mathematics in Stock Speculation Performance.International Institute for General Systems Studies Special Issue
1997
[49] 刘开第编著.不确定性信息数学处理及其应用.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1998
[50] 刘开第等.水环境质量变权评价、识别模型.数量经济技术经济研究,2000.2
[51] 邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990
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